Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

The first thing that popped into my head when looking at the numbers was, “Damn, Bill has a shot here.”  Seriously, he really could.  And when they add another 50 – 60 points to each couple, it could get better. But I skip ahead.  The table below shows my estimated scores along with the actual scores.

Table 1

Gee, when all is said and done, the two “shocking” scores are the only ones I wasn’t either on target or very close with – does anyone think this is coincidental?? I don’t. I mean, they weren’t natural or normal, so there you go.

Now, 4 points seems like a lot, between Bill and Jack/Corbin, but it only translates to 13k votes per million votes cast.  That’s a middling number – not low, not super high. Maybe it’s my wishful thinking, but I think Bill can get that over Jack. Probably not Corbin, because I can’t believe they would risk him with a shit score if he wasn’t getting the votes.  Of course, ABC just had a commercial that said something along the lines of “Don’t miss the first minute, or you’ll miss a big announcement” – Linz on twitter saw it and she thinks it’s something about JLo performing, someone else said she might be guest judging – I’m thinking they’re going to have a double elimination surprise. And yes, I know Derek said there wasn’t one – but that’s the whole point of a “surprise” right? My cynical brain says that they didn’t announce it last week or put it in the press release because they wanted to see what the votes looked like first. Which could be bad news for Bill and Jack.   Anyway, let’s look at how the vote requirements stand after the end of Monday’s show.

Table 2

Besides Bill, Corbin, Jack and Snicole are all down there in potential danger. Leah is too, if it’s a double elimination. If we look at it as a possible double, it REALLY makes my brain hurt, so it might be easiest if I do a bullet list of my thoughts.

  • Bill would need 13k votes per million votes cast to get past either Jack or Corbin;
  • Assuming Bill CAN’T get past Corbin, in a double elimination he would have to get past another person too, most likely Leah (17.3k) or Nicole (26k). I think he gets past Leah;
  • If Bill gets past two people, that leaves Corbin and Jack at the bottom. I believe that Corbin is getting the votes and is safe – that leaves Jack;
  • Jack would need to get past TWO people also, to be safe, such as Leah (4.4k votes per million) or Nicole (13k) or Brant (17.3k). I think he can beat Leah, but not Nicole or Brant.
  • Presuming that Bill is safe, Corbin is safe and Jack only gets past one person, that brings us to Leah. Now, in a single elimination Jack getting past Leah would mean that Jack is safe. In a double elimination he would have to get past two people – and I don’t think he can, so I think he’s the second eliminate in a double.
  • I think Jack can get the 4.4k votes per million votes cast to get past Leah, and I think Leah can get the 8,600 votes per million votes cast to get past Nicole. The question is, can Nicole get the 4.4k votes per million votes cast to get past Brant? Possibly.

My guess is, that if these numbers didn’t change, in a single elimination it would come down to Jack and Nicole, because while Jack might get past Leah, he might not be able to get past Nicole, and Nicole may or may not be able to get past Brant.  Leah is a wild card. In a double elimination,  I think/hope it comes down to two of the following three leaving: Jack, Nicole and Leah. I could be over estimating Bill, but I really don’t want to be.

So, what happens when they add in an individual dance score and a team dance score to all couples? Well, it’s a shit storm really. And with the oh-so-special brand of crack that Len has been smoking who knows what the hell is going to happen. Here’s who’s dancing what for their individual dance so far:

Amber – Paso Doble

Corbin – Cha Cha Cha

Brant and Jack – Jive

Liz and Bill – Quickstep

Nicole – Samba

Leah – Salsa

Gee, I’m sure it’s totally a coincidence that Liz and Bill are doing the same dance. (/sarcasm) Okay, if Derek is healthy, I’m pretty sure they can pull off a great Paso Doble and still only get a mediocre score for it, thanks to Len.

Corbin will get a 30 for his cha cha because that is one of the easier dances and it will be week 7 – nearly time to start the redemption arc. Liz will get a 29 or 30 because, god help us, we can’t NOT prop her up just in case!! Bill will get hosed regardless of what he does…do I sound cynical? I am. I think Nicole will do very well on Samba and get a decent score for it. I suspect that Tony will do cliché and simple salsa choreo for Leah and she’ll get a 27 or so.  I do think this will be a Hope Solo path, although Leah is a much better dancer than Hope (boy, is that bar set low or WHAT?), in that she’ll get a score that will shock the crap out of her next week because they’ll start to get real.  Brant and Jack on Jive. Man, tough call.  Honestly, I think both will have a bit of trouble with it, but Brant might get a bit of help from the judges. Jack, on the other hand, will probably not.

Team dances…if Team FoxingAwesome doesn’t wipe the floor with Team Bom Bom, then there’s something rotten in Denmark. I suppose that Derek’s team could have something disastrous happen – like the song was too crazy and shit just falls apart – but on paper this team is a shoe in to win. Team dances started in Season 7 and that is still probably my favorite of the team dances because it was just so unexpected. And Derek’s team has won every time since then. He’s destined for a loss, but I just can’t imagine it this season. Nothing I’ve seen from him thus far has indicated dry spell, so….anyway, here are my predictions:

Table 3

See, this is what’s crazy about the lack of an elimination last week plus two dances this week. A huge number of total points awarded. As a result, Bill went from a 3 point deficit, to a 5 point deficit, but the number of votes he needs to be safe shrank dramatically. This past Monday, he needed 13k votes per million votes cast to beat either Corbin or Jack and stick around. If the scores are even remotely similar to what I’ve shown above (and really, with this many points you can switch it around a good bit and not make a difference), he only needs about 7.5k votes per million votes cast to beat either Jack or Leah. I think he can do this.  See below…

Table 4

The problem is, of course, the team dance. Bill is on the weaker team, as is Leah. If they do significantly worse than Derek/Amber’s team he and Leah could need a bit more. I tend to doubt this. I don’t think the judges want Liz on a team that does badly, whether they deserve it or not. I can almost hear the commentary now, about giving them a break since they were so clearly the weaker team. Bollocks.

Anyway, look at table 4 – look how small those numbers are between Bill and all the couples. This week should be somewhat revealing.  If it is a single elimination, I think Bill could very well be safe. He only needs 7.5k votes per million votes cast in my scenario to beat either Leah or Jack – I think he beats both of them.

What about Jack and Leah? Besides needing ONE more vote to beat each other, they need the following:

–        Jack/Leah need 6k votes per million votes cast to beat Nicole, or;

–        Jack/Leah need 7.5k votes per million votes cast to beat Corbin, or;

–        Jack/Leah need 9k votes per million votes cast to beat Brant, or;

–        Jack/Leah need 12k votes per million votes cast to beat Amber or Liz.

Now, if Bill beats Jack and Leah and it’s a single elimination, then either Jack or Leah need one vote more than the other to stick around. I think Leah beats Jack. That puts Jack as the single eliminee because Bill and Leah both beat him and I don’t think he gets the votes to pass Nicole, Corbin, Brant, Amber or Liz. If he can get past Nicole, then Nicole would be in trouble.  He would need 6k votes per million votes cast to do it.

But what if they spring a double elimination on us?? Well, I think that Bill beats Jack and Leah. I  think Leah beats Nicole and Jack, which would leave Jack and Nicole in the bottom. This would not be my preference. My preference would be that Leah can’t beat Nicole and she and Jack go home in a double.

In a single elimination, I think Jack goes home. In a double elimination, I think it will be Jack and Nicole or Jack and Leah. I guess we have to wait and see. I could be way off base – and if the judges are as crazy or crazier this week, then all bets are off.  Now, if the judges ARE crazy (crazy determined to get rid of him) or Bill does a bad quickstep and only scores a 21, with all other scores being about right??  Bill’s margin that he needs to overcome to beat Leah and/or Jack increases to 12k more votes per million votes cast. I don’t know if he can do it, but I have a feeling we’re going to find out on Monday.  If the judges give him a 24 – I think he’s staying, either because of the small margin or because the judges have resigned themselves to him staying another week. If they give him a 21 on a dance that is worthy of more? Start praying, Bill fans. I hope you voted.

Discuss. :-D