Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’ve seen lots of people making the mistaken assumption (again) that Bill must be getting a ton of votes. This is not necessarily true. And it’s not necessarily false. We don’t actually know. All we know is that Nicole WASN’T getting the votes she needed and that Bill and Leah were getting enough to cover the spread. But as I’ve said before, If Nicole got 10 votes, Bill got 15k votes and Leah gets 20k votes does it matter when Corbin is getting 100k votes?? Nope. It just means that Nicole was first to go of the three, instead of second. Follow me?

Anyway, this week was not a major accomplishment by Bill or Leah, IMO. I think Nicole, along with possibly Jack, fall into the dangerous middle of the road territory, not so much in scoring, but certainly in the impact they are having on the show. I’m also wondering if Brant falls into this category, but he hasn’t even gotten close to “jeopardy” in a few weeks now.  Here’s where the scores from weeks 6 and 7 put each of our couples.

Table 1

Ten whole points between Bill and Nicole seems like a lot, eh?? Not so much as you might think. As shown, below, Bill only needed about 15k votes per million votes cast to beat Nicole – that’s not even close to the largest margin beaten on this show (45k, I believe, by Kurt Warner, who was eliminated the very next week). I was saying the same thing then as I am now – don’t count your chickens.

Table 2

As you can see from the above table, all Bill had to do was get 15k more than Nicole, which he clearly did. Leah’s job was MUCH easier. She only needed 4,500 more votes per million votes cast to stick around while Nicole was eliminated. Jack only needed ONE more vote per million votes cast.  These are not huge numbers and this is due, in large part to the total points used in the calculation; 674 points is massive and it creates tiny margins. This is why next week won’t likely be so easy. Keep reading to find out why.

This upcoming week we have an individual dance and the “dance off”. As Vogue posted a few days ago, the ABC Press Release says that the top scoring couple of the night gets immunity and the other couples are paired up, with the winner of each dance off getting extra points from the judges. IF (and this is a big IF) they do it the same way they did last season, the high scoring couple that is not immune picks who they want to dance against, then the next highest and so on. Like, Aly picked Andy and won 3 points. Kellie and Aly were tied for high score for the night, but since Kellie had the highest cumulative score, she got the immunity.  The one thing that bugs me about competitions like these (and the twitter competitions as well) is that the cumulative score ends up being important starting about this time of the season. If those extra points are added in when some couples didn’t get any even though they were “rewarded” by being the high scorer, they could end up being penalized later on. Depends on if the show counts them in the cumulative or not – how is it fair that Zendaya takes the lead in cumulative score based on Kellie winning immunity and Zen getting points via twitter; the former being a supposed reward, the latter having nothing to do with dancing? If anything, I think the “immune” couple should also get three points.

Anyway, I digress. Here is what the couples are dancing this week for their individual dance:

Amber – Rumba

Bill – Disco

Liz – Jazz

Corbin – Argentine Tango

Jack – Tango

Leah – V. Waltz

Brant – probably Contemporary *Foxtrot?

** I say probably contemporary Foxtrot because the press release names contemporary for this week (Brant has already done it). The press release is clearly WRONG or one of the dancers was wrong about what they were dancing in the media that’s out there, because the Press Release doesn’t list Rumba and it does list foxtrot and contemporary. Since Amber has already danced foxtrot and says she’s dancing rumba, I’m guessing the press release is wrong. ETA: Made a change here since I forgot Brant already did Contemporary. We’ll assume the press release got Foxtrot right and that’s what he’s dancing. Makes no real difference to anything below.

Now, I think Leah will do very well with the V. Waltz (or well enough for the judges to give her a 10 in this current climate).  And, I think Bill will do very well with Disco but is unlikely to be rewarded for it. Jack is a mystery to me, so I’m going to assume he does one point better than he did last week, whether he deserves it or not.  Corbin will get a perfect score on his AT as will Liz on her Jazz since she is a JAZZ dancer by training, I believe. Duh. Brant will likely do extremely well with contemporary – I think they’re determined this be the “most competitive season ever” so it’s likely that everyone except Bill will get great scores. Not sure Amber and Rumba will go together, but every time I say that Derek embarrasses me. :-)

So, who gets immunity and who gets three points? If Corbin and Liz tie, Corbin is immune based on the current cumulative. If you add Amber to the mix cuz she gets a 30, SHE is immune.  In any case, I don’t think any of those three are going home next week. But if Corbin is immune and Liz is the high scorer, who do you think she and Val pick to dance against?  Val is just stupid enough to pick Amber and risk Liz’s safety on it. But maybe he knows the judges will give it to him regardless. Who knows? Wonder if he still has his “pick on someone his own size” arrogance? I’m thinking we’ll find out. But maybe not, cuz if Liz and Amber tie, Amber gets to pick based on cumulative score. Plus, it’s entirely possible that Corbin only gets a 29 to Liz’s 30, so they don’t risk her in the dance off. Because if Val is stupid and the dance is something that Amber kills? Liz could be in trouble. If the top three are out of the mix right away, then I bet Brant picks Bill and that leaves Leah with Jack.  This is the scenario I’m going with, although it is impossible to predict what will actually happen. Too much hinges on actual scores and Val’s arrogance.  So, see below for how I think it might work out. My odds of being wrong, however, are much greater than normal.

Table 3

Now, keep in mind, they could very well decide they want Leah to stick around more than Jack, therefore my assumption that Jack wins could be flawed. After all, I’m assuming they want Liz more than they do Amber, so I think Amber loses whether she deserves to or not. Or maybe Liz just needs the points more, who knows?

The above table puts Corbin in immunity, Liz in first place, Brant and Jack tied for second place, Leah in third place, Amber in fourth place and Bill last once again. This is where all you Amber fans better have been voting, because this challenge can hose you but good.  If this is how it goes down, here are the votes needed for people to stick around:

Table 4

As you can see from the above table, things get very interesting indeed, in this scenario. Looking at these numbers, I’m not entirely sure it will happen this way. Everything kinda hinges on the scoring of the top 3 dancers and I would bet that Amber is NOT the high scorer because I think she’s doing well enough to survive via votes. Whether it’s Liz or Corbin may reveal how the judges think they’re doing in terms of votes, because I tend to doubt there will be a clear cut winner.

Anyway, this scenario leads me to believe that it is more likely to be Bill or Leah going home than anyone else. I don’t think Bill gets past Amber, but he could very well get past Leah. It’s almost that simple. Even if Bill CAN beat Amber in this scenario, look at what Amber has to do. I think she beats Leah easily, and possibly Jack and Brant as well. So, if Bill can beat Amber and Leah, and Amber is performing like I think she is, Leah goes home.  I think in this scenario it’s either Bill or Leah going home. Jack is an outside possibility in this scenario because the following would have to happen for him to be eliminated:

–        Bill would have to get 40k more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–        Amber would have to get 20k more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–        Leah would have to get 15k more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–        Brant would have to get ONE more vote per million votes cast.

Now, I think that Amber gets the 20k, but I have a hard time believing that either Bill or Leah would get those votes. In any case, ALL four of the above would have to happen for Jack to leave…and he would have to not cover the spread (10k votes) to get past Liz. I suppose it’s possible he’s beating Liz by that much, but I tend to doubt it. So, in my scenario above, either Bill or Leah goes home. You can switch Corbin and Liz in the above scenario with probably a similar result. I think.

But let’s look at a difference scenario – one that is equally plausible, in my book. In this scenario, Liz is immune, and Corbin gets first pick, via Amber only getting a 27 on her Rumba and him getting a 29 on his AT.  If this were to happen, I think Corbin picks Bill.  IF I’m right about the individual dance scores – or even if I’m only right about Brant and Amber – Brant gets second pick and would probably pick Leah. That would leave Jack versus Amber. Even if Brant picks Jack, that leaves Amber with Leah. In this scenario, I think both Brant and Amber win easily. As does Corbin. Which would leave us with this:

Table 5

This point distribution results in the following dancer comparisons:

Table 6

In this scenario, you see that Bill still needs about the same number of votes to get past Leah, but now Jack is in there as well. Amber has been moved out of it and Jack is in greater danger. I think in this scenario it comes down to Bill, Leah and Jack.  Frankly, I think Jack might be the one in trouble here. If Bill can indeed get the 25k votes to get past Jack and/or Leah, Leah probably gets one more vote than Jack to be safe. Either or both of them would need 10k votes per million votes cast to get past Amber. I would be surprised if that happened – I think Amber is getting enough votes that they can’t cover the spread.

Questions?