It’s that time again! Every season Charlie’s Angels like to dissect the Las Vegas Odds in a weekly post and then get your thoughts to see if you agree or disagree with us and the odds makers. Note that before we start, we usually do this on Fridays or Saturdays depending on our time. So, if you don’t see it posted yet, don’t feel you need to contact us or post about it in comments to let us know about the new odds. It’s appreciated, but, we already know and are very aware of them, but, we are just waiting for all three of us to comment and get them ready.
Ok, so let’s get started with our very first Las Vegas Odds post for Dancing With The Stars Season 18!! Below is what Sports Bovada is reporting. Does this look about right to you or are the odds makers way off?
Meryl Davis 3/2
Charlie White 3/1
Cody Simpson 6/1
James Maslow 6/1
Amy Purdy 10/1
Candace Cameron Bure 15/1
Danica McKellar 15/1
NeNe Leakes 15/1
Sean Avery 20/1
Billy Dee Williams 25/1
Diana Nyad 33/1
Drew Carey 33/1
My thoughts: It’s always hard to tell without seeing the couples all dance first. So many things can play into it…including the “likability” factor. One thing I’ve noted though is that the odds makers are almost always wrong about who will win in their first week predictions. Hmmm? But, I do think it might come down to Meryl and Charlie in the end with Charlie winning, but, I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win by any means. I think Cody and Amy are going to be big contenders too along with Danica and Candace. I’m not sure about James, but, right now I think it could go one way or the other. I don’t think the odds makers have pegged the last three correctly either. I think they should have Nene at the bottom. I think Diana is going to do better than many think. She’s athletic and has a lot of determination and energy…and same with her partner Henry who is going to want to really light us up in his first season as a pro. Drew and Cheryl are going to be funny, so, I think many fans may want to see them stick around for a while. In fact, I get a “Emma and Bill” feeling from them for what we saw last season. If I were to pick the bottom three right now, it would be Nene, Billy Dee, and possibly Sean Avery?
Heidi and Court, what do you think and what’s your feel on our first odds of the season?
Courtney: I’m sure these odds are gonna get shaken up quite a bit after the first dance, but right off the bat, they probably have the top 2 right – I think it’s ultimately going to be Meryl & Charlie duking it out for the win (and I’m sure that’s the exact storyline TPTB are hoping for); however, I’m thinking Charlie might have more of an edge just in terms of personality – he seems a bit more personable than Meryl, and I think he & Sharna are going to have a more relatable, likeable partnership than Meryl & Maks…I’m not convinced that Maks is going to be able to be on his best behavior all season long. I’m banking on at least one outburst that leaves Meryl in tears. Not hoping for it – just preparing for it. I think Cody may have a slight edge over James, judging from what I’ve seen so far on Instagram – for every 1 James picture tagged with #dwts, there are at least 2 Cody ones. I think Danica may have the edge over Candace in terms of skill, but I think the votes may tip in Candace’s favor just due to familiarity – I’m seeing more fans familiar with DJ Tanner than I am fans familiar Winnie Cooper. I unfortunately think Diana is in the right place – I don’t know that her name is familiar enough with viewers to garner a ton of votes. Kind of surprised they have Drew so low – I could see him easily outlasting at least 3 other people. And as I’ve said in other threads – I think Billy Dee is gonna have more longevity than some might think. I think he’ll at least stay longer than NeNe & Diana, and possibly Sean as well.
Heidi: The problem with tween/teen followings is that they’re unreliable. Zendaya got to the end, but I don’t think she was necessarily the front runner all season long, based on another post I’m working on (pimp self: I will be posting it in the next week or so) – plus she was one of only two ringers that season. She certainly had the following and the SCORES to get her to the end. If James and/or Cody aren’t fantastic dancers like I think some expect them to be, their tween fanbases can only get them so far. Mainly because they are on a season with 3 big ringers (who will get the great scores), and a lot of people who will be, I think, well liked by the average viewer (which far outnumbers the boys twitter followings). I think James might be surprise canon fodder and Cody will go a good bit farther – I don’t think both of them can go the distance, frankly. I also think that either Meryl or Charlie might get eliminated prior to the finale…I’m leaning toward Meryl being the one to go. Why? Well, there’s a lot of complaining about ice DANCERS choreographed by Derek Hough being on the show. Either or both could over come that bias – and I’m leaning towards Charlie (remember, it doesn’t’ matter what Ice dance fans think, it matters what the DWTS viewers think). I would not be surprised to see a final four of Danica, Charlie, Cody and Amy. But I also would not be surprised to see a final four where Meryl takes Amy’s or Danica’s place. Danica is a big ringer as are Meryl and Charlie, so they will all have the scores and I think they can get the votes too. Cody and James are ringers in terms of fanbase – but it’s a young fanbase and they must have the scores on the level of Danica, Meryl and Charlie to beat them. The question becomes – can that many ringers make it to the end? It didn’t happen that way last season – two of the ringers were gone well before the finale. Are three (5 if you count fanbase) ringers of that magnitude sustainable? Since Meryl and Charlie are fresh off the Olympics, I would give them the edge IF both make it to the finale. So, based on all that blather, I think James and Danica should be switched. Amy and Candace are about right, provided that Amy can dance well enough. I would switch Drew with Sean and then leave the rest alone.
Vogue back again: Now that we’ve told you what we think, let us know what you think in comments. Thanks All!! xx