Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Ah, the week of switch up voting. Is someone trying to make me hate this show?? I mean really.  A logical person can look at the voting contest and sense a total clusterf*^k – that the producers will count the votes in which ever of the 6 or 8 ways gives them the results they desire. But I’ll let Courtney go into more detail on that – it just annoys me, as do the Maks/Val fans who insist that Derek fans are only voting to see Derek with Meryl so he can win again. Uh, hello, but I think most Derek fans neither expect nor WANT him to stay with Meryl. I know I speak for a good number of them when I say – we better get Amy back or there will be hell to pay.

Anyway, the switch up is mildly relevant to this post because the voting for it could play spoiler in one couples hopes for the mirror ball trophy. I always wonder if fans who do the twitter voting are good multi-taskers.  I know I am, but Vogue says it’s cuz I’m a Gemini…or something like that. :-D Anyway, there is some serious spamming going on. Like Design a Dance, it’s not the number of fans you have, but how badly those fans want you to win.  And how good they are at Spamming. Actually, that could be said for the whole show.  :-)  So, do we think that someone is going to be a shocking elimination because their fans were too busy tweeting?? Amy? Meryl? Danica? Nene?

I put those four out there because the Derek fans and the C-bros plus Tony fans have been hitting it hard on the twitter vote. Amy has the smallest fanbase on her own, but Derek’s fanbase is the biggest of the pros, judging by Twitter followers.  I would hazard that Meryl is safe, but it’s possible any of the other three could be a victim, I suppose.

But let’s look at the scores and see just how likely that is.

Week 2 Table 1

Dang, they put a huge spread between Billy Dee and the next lowest group comprised of Nene, Drew and Candace.  The judges REALLY want to get rid of him. Well, he was not a great dancer. Entertaining, but not great. And oh my gosh am I developing a straight girl crush on Emma or what? She impressed the hell out of me in her work with Billy Dee – seriously, she’s fantastic.  Anyway, I think the judges have finally realized that if they believe someone is the worst dancer, they can’t be whipping out 6s and 7s left and right, they have to get serious. But where they serious enough??  Look at the table below, which gives you all the matchups for week 2.

Week 2 Table 2

You’ll see that Billy Dee needs a seemingly large number of votes to get past either Nene, Drew or Candace – about 24.6k votes per million votes cast. You might remember that he needed nearly 20k to stick around over Diana and Sean last week. What’s another 5k?  Well, I would hazard a guess that Drew and Candance, at least, are a good bit more popular than either Diana and Sean. But just how popular is Billy Dee??  Nene is the one I can’t put my finger on.  Twitter followers is certainly an indication of popularity, but that does NOT always translate into votes on DWTS. In fact, it often doesn’t.

I could be wrong, but I really see the only one vulnerable to Billy Dee  is Nene.  Why? Well, I think that Drew and Candace surely have enough juice to get past Nene and keep Billy Dee away.  But what about the next level up? Cody? Surely Cody has a shit ton of fangirls and he’ll be safe for a while, right? I think so – but note that Nene only needs 4k votes to go by Cody. Since I don’t think that Nene is doing that much better than Amy and Danica in votes, and Billy Dee certainly isn’t, I think those two, along with Meryl and Charlie are certainly safe. James best keep that score up there or he could be in trouble.

Anyway, no sense in drawing it out. I think that Billy Dee is likely to go home. If the Star Wars fans are out in full force, then I think Nene is the one most likely to leave. Candace wouldn’t shock me, neither would Cody since all the talk seems to be Amy/Meryl/Charlie – but I really think it’s going to be Billy Dee or Nene.  Billy Dee first, Nene second.  We find out soon!