PureDWTS Season 18, Week 6/7 – Let’s Talk Team Dance Picks
So if my spidey sense is correct, the teams for the team dances next week will probably get picked immediately after the show tonight, and they’ll head directly into rehearsal immediately after that – and there are a number of ways the teams could get divided up. Since so many of you were chomping at the bit to start discussing it in detail after my “What Left to Dance?” post – here’s a place to do just that. 🙂
First, a bit of an overview: the team captains have always been the two celebs who have the highest cumulative point total for the season, and they usually flip a coin to see who gets first pick (or, whoever wins the toss gets a choice between picking first or picking their song/dance first). Because the cumulative point total will ultimately determine the team captains, pay close attention to how Meryl, Charlie, & James are scored tonight – as of right now, Meryl is in the lead with 134 points; Charlie trails by 3 points at 131, and James is a mere 2 points behind him at 129. Based on how they’ve been scoring Meryl, I don’t see her getting bumped out of that top spot, so I would venture a guess that she will definitely be one of the team captains; however, if Charlie has an off-night (and James kills his quickstep), we could potentially see James bumping Charlie out of the #2 spot in order to go up against Meryl as the other team captain. Hell, I would even say there’s an outside chance (wayyyy outside chance) that Amy or Danica (particularly Danica) could swoop in and knock both Charlie & James down a notch and take that #2 spot, since they’re both tied at 128. But my gut tells me that TPTB are too in love with the idea of Meryl vs. Charlie, and so they’ll probably go out of their way to ensure that Charlie stays at #2…which may mean low-balling James and giving Charlie a pretty cushy score.
Strategically-speaking, I think it’s going to be more advantageous for the winner of the coin toss to pick their song & music first, as opposed to getting first pick on couples for their team – whoever picks first will end up with four couples on their team, which is harder to work with than three. And because I can’t really predict who wins the toss, I’ve divided up each possible team captain scenario by who chooses first. I’ve also made a few assumptions when predicting who will pick whom – I’ve listed those below. All the assumptions I’m making are based on tribal knowledge from previous team dances and just common sense as well. And keep in mind these are just my predictions – a lot of it is based on what we’ve seen in previous team dances, and knowledge of who does & doesn’t get along on this show. I’m not Miss Cleo – I cannot read minds or see the future. I can only make educated guesses. 😛
Assumptions made:
*Either NeNe & Tony or Drew & Cheryl get eliminated tonight – I’m including them as one entity with a slash in the team picks, just to illustrate that only one of them will likely remain after tonight’s elim. I’m not banking on a shocking elim, but I guess one is possible.
*La Familia will do their best do stick together, and that will dictate a lot of their picking strategy.
*Even at his most strategic, Maks still cannot bring himself to pick Derek for his team; he also tries to avoid picking Mark.
*Sharna & Peta are both better strategists than Maks.
*The teams have not been predetermined by TPTB, and the captaining couples are actually picking them without any coaching from the Muppets upstairs.
*The celeb team captains are deferring to their pro on who to pick.
*The pros have an idea of who gets along and who doesn’t – and may leave a couple for the other team to pick just to keep things copacetic.
*Stronger couples get picked before weaker ones – except when La Familia is trying to look out for their own and avoid Derek & Mark.
Scenario #1: Meryl & Charlie are the team captains; Meryl chooses first.
If the name of the game is “Viva La Familia!”: Meryl choses Danica & Val first (at Maks’ urging). Charlie then chooses James & Peta (because Sharna knows that Maks will not pick Amy & Derek). Still internally chanting “Viva La Familia!” (and trying like hell to avoid both Derek & Mark), Maks urges Meryl to pick NeNe & Tony/Drew & Cheryl next. Charlie picks Amy & Derek. Stuck with no other options, Maks begrudgingly accepts Candace & Mark.
If Maks is actually thinking strategy: Meryl choses James & Peta first; Charlie then snaps up Amy & Derek. Meryl picks Danica & Val; Charlie picks Candace & Mark. Meryl is left with Nene & Tony/Drew & Cheryl.
I think the only variables that have the potential to change in these hypothetical situations are who gets James & Peta, who gets NeNe & Tony/Drew & Cheryl, and who gets Candace & Mark. I think Danica & Val end up on Meryl’s team, regardless; and I think Amy & Derek end up on Charlie’s team, regardless.
Scenario #2: Meryl & Charlie are the team captains; Charlie chooses first.
Charlie picks James & Peta; Meryl picks Danica & Val; Charlie picks Amy & Derek; Meryl picks NeNe & Tony/Drew & Cheryl. Charlie is left with Candace & Mark.
Again, not a whole lot changes here, except that Charlie’s team ends up with more couples instead of Meryl’s. I think in the majority of the situations, Candace & Mark will be the last couple chosen – and thus will end up with whichever team chooses first.
Scenario #3: Meryl & James are the team captains; Meryl chooses first.
Meryl picks Charlie & Sharna; James picks Danica & Val. Meryl picks NeNe & Tony/Drew & Cheryl; James picks Amy & Derek. Meryl is left with Candace & Mark.
I think the remote possibility that James could be a captain has the potential to throw the biggest wrench into things – but I sincerely doubt TPTB will be able to resist the opportunity to pit Meryl against Charlie as the team captains. Keep an eye on James’ score tonight – if they seem to lowball him, I think it’s safe to say they’re trying to ensure that he doesn’t surpass Charlie in cumulative point total.
Scenario #4: Meryl & James are the team captains; James chooses first.
James picks Charlie & Sharna; Meryl picks Danica & Val. James picks Amy & Derek; Meryl picks NeNe & Tony/Drew & Cheryl; James is left with Candace & Mark.
Basically, the same outcome as if Charlie were captain and picking first – just flip-flopping James & Charlie as captain.
Scenario #5: One or both of the pros is smoking crack and picks completely unpredictably. (aka the “Val in season 17” strategy)
Really and truly, if this happens (and I doubt it will), anything goes – Val probably made the biggest “WTF???” pick in team dance history last season when he picked Bill & Emma first for their team, which then set forth a cascade of picks that resulted in some seriously lopsided teams, in terms of skill, and likely contributed to some degree to Snooki getting eliminated. What would I personally consider to be “unpredictable”? Probably Maks letting Meryl pick Amy & Derek, or NeNe & Tony/Drew & Cheryl or Candace & Mark getting picked first. Basically anything that seems to contradict the edicts that a) La Familia avoids picking Derek (and to a lesser degree, Mark), and b) the stronger couples get picked before the weaker ones. Hypothesize away on this one – doubt it will happen, but I’d love to hear everyone’s wacky ideas of just how far off the rails the team picking could get 😛 An evil part of me would love to see Val end up on team Charlie with Derek – I know Val seems to think he knows best when it comes to team dance choreography, but I’d love to see him get schooled a bit by a 9-time team dance champion on what works and what doesn’t. 😛
So what’s my official prediction on the team dances? I think Meryl & Charlie end up as captains, Meryl picks first, and the team end up being Meryl & Maks, Danica & Val, Drew & Cheryl (assuming NeNe goes home), and Candace & Mark vs. Charlie & Sharna, James & Peta, and Amy & Derek. If Meryl doesn’t pick first, I think the teams will be Charlie & Sharna, James & Peta, Amy & Derek, and Candace & Mark vs. Meryl & Maks, Danica & Val, and Drew & Cheryl. I think as long as Derek does NOT end up on Team La Familia, he’ll win his 10th team dance…easily. 🙂 What do you guys think? What teams do you think we might see next week?
Way way cool post Court. I love this! Good job!
Seems like no matter which of these scenarios plays out, Amy ends up on the stronger team.
I want the option that puts Derek and Mark on the same team. I love thinking about what a Derek-Mark-Charlie team line up could do.
I think it will be very easy for Maks to convince Meryl (if necessary) to choose Val over Derek since she’s danced, and done very well, with Val.
Mostly when imagining these scenarios, it’s like the scene in West Side Story when the social worker has them all dance with someone from the “other side,” and at some point they suddenly all start boomeranging back to the natural order of things. The one thing I cannot imagine is what the “evil part” tempts, Val and Maks on different teams. That would really leave their mother and grandmother in quite a bind! In the end I think they will scold Maks if Val doesn’t win, adding more fuel to the familial rage I think Maks carries around.
Love this post!
My prediction is Meryl & Maks, Danica & Val, Nene & Tony, Candace & Mark vs. Charlie & Sharna, James & Peta, and Amy & Derek. I’m thinking Drew & Cheryl will be eliminated tonight.
My big question mark is how they will choreograph the dances once the teams are picked. Basically, will whoever has Derek on their team give up control to let him take charge? He’s been the team captain for the last 3 seasons so it kind of made sense, but seeing as he won’t be this season, I wonder if the other pros (that are ahead in cumulative totals) will realize that he understands how to do this and let him be the main choreographer.
I agree with you guys, I want Derek and Mark on the same team, I love it when they work together in team dances and if Charlie’s on that team even better. Derek, Mark, and Charlie would be incredible together!!
Court, I have a question about Scenario #3. Meryl gets first pick and chooses Charlie/Sharna. Why not Danica/Val first? Are you figuring Meryl would go for Charlie no matter what Maks wants, or are you going with the general assumption that the grabbing the “strongest dancer” trumps keeping “La Familia” together?
I agree with you that there is no way producers will risk Meryl and Charlie being on the same team. They will be team captains and Val and Danica will end up with Maks, and Derek and Amy will be with Charlie. The idea of Charlie, James, and Derek all dancing side by side gets me very excited. This would be a hard team to beat.
Speaking of strategy, I remember back in season 15 when Shawn and Derek were able to pick teams and Mark was the last pair standing. As I recall didn’t they pick Melissa and Tony first? That is strategy.
Thank you for putting this together. Looking forward to tonight.
I kinda just wished they would pick the teams at random. Kinda like they did in High School for group projects (at least in my school, anyways): Pick a number out of a hat and everyone who got a 1 gets together and everyone who got a 2 gets together. Team 1 & 2. Done and done. Lol 😛
@Cidra – I think if Charlie (one of the two strongest dancers this season) is up for grabs and Meryl gets to pick first, Maks is gonna tell her to jump on it – really stack their team with the strongest pairings possible, and I think they’ll just hope and pray that James’ first pick is Amy & Derek and not Danica & Val. I see Charlie as a big “get” that would probably trump Maks’ desire to keep it “all in the family”. The thing is, I don’t necessarily think stacking your team full of great dancers is a guaranteed win – I think you’re better off having weaker dancers and a great choreographer that can make them shine.
@Steph- I feel like the all-star season was a bit different as the celebs kind of knew what they were doing more so than usual. Also, that was Shawn and Derek who do think strategy over cliques. I highly doubt the other side (Giles and Peta who was dating Maks at the time) would have done the same thing.
@Steph – The season 15 team picking is a great example of picking to keep it “all in the family” vs. picking with actual strategy in mind 😛 I think many of us called it weeks before the team dance – we knew that Gilles & Peta’s team was probably going to get stacked full of “La Familia” members, and I think that left Shawn & Derek some room to play some strategy. Gilles’ first pick was Kelly & Val; Shawn then snapped up Sabrina & Louis. Gilles picks Kirstie & Maks; then Shawn got kinda shrewd and picked Melissa & Tony (which Melissa seemed thrilled about – Tony was noticeably less enthused). All that was left was Emmitt & Cheryl, Apolo & Karina, & Bristol & Mark – I think you can guess who Gilles’ last pick was. And then Shawn picked Apolo & Karina, who they knew they would get because La Familia wouldn’t touch Karina with a ten foot pole. Bristol & Mark ended up getting eliminated that week (and I think both teams kinda knew she would), so it ended up not affecting anything. But yeah, just think – the last time we had both ChmerWolowitz Bros on a team together, we got Gangnam Style…which will probably go down in history as one of the worst team dances we’ve seen. And I don’t think they realize that their strategy in picking their team is pretty transparent – which kinda allows the other team to exploit them a bit. The other team can snap up mutually desirable couples in their first 1-2 picks, because they know that Maks & Val won’t touch Derek or Mark; however, that reluctance to pick Derek or Mark leaves La Familia without a whole lot of choices…so they end up with weaker couples like Drew & Cheryl or NeNe & Tony. Honestly, in all of the team dances we’ve seen Derek captain, I really don’t think he’s given a rat’s ass who ended up on his team – he’s willingly picked Maks TWICE. Because he realizes it’s not necessarily about who’s on your team – it’s about what you do with those on your team that wins.
Court, Thanks for explaining your thoughts behind Scenario #3. Makes sense, and truer words were never spoken…you’re better off having weaker dancers and a great choreographer that can make them shine.
I’m hoping for Scenario #2 with Charlie/Sharna, James/Peta, Amy/Derek, and Candace/Mark.
I believe Derek’s Team win in Season 16 was also proof of his skill at getting the best out of a Team Dance. Team Samba really pleasantly surprised me. Not that it was the best Team Dance ever, but it seems Derek has a way to get everyone to work together for the good of the Team, even when the individual couples are not the strongest.
I think Meryl might pick Derek (and Amy) second, if she has the chance. Everyone knows Derek has never lost the team dance, and while Maks and Derek might not be the best of friends, Meryl is very friendly with Derek since they worked together. She congratulated him on his Emmy, spoke to him via phone after their skate in Sochi, etc.
First choice will probably be Val, though, since she danced with him.
If Charlie is not team captain, she will pick him first.
Derek usually goes strategy, Maks ALWAYS has gone family, as has Val. Which is why they don’t beat Derek. 🙂
@ Cidra yes I really like the idea of Derek, James, Mark and Charlie all dancing together.
Oh my need to go turn the A/C down…
IDK about the pro vs. pro dramarama or how influenced by it Meryl would be, but Meryl has a prior relationship with Derek and picked him as her choice for a partner whenever she was asked about doing the show, she hired him to consult on her Olympic year routine aka the most important routine of her career, she has called him a genius, etc. The only way I don’t see her snapping him up as her second choice (I think she will choose Val first for obvious reasons) is if he’s already been picked by Charlie or Sharna or if Charlie is in the fray and becomes her default first choice. (Even then, would the producers allow her to pick Charlie/Sharna. I sort of doubt it.)
I hope they pick teams live on TV tonight like they did in All-stars. It’s fun to watch the strategy live.
I doubt if Maks would ever pick Derek to be on his team (or Val) because I feel like their ego would be burned because Derek is such a great choreographer and in the interest of actually doing well, Derek would be in charge of the choreo.
I think last years team dance, Amber mentioned in an interview that Derek came up with most of the choreography which was brilliant (and memorable for the song they had to work with)
Scenario #1: My prediction – Meryl/Maks pick first, Charlie/Sharna pick second
I think that Nene/Tony will be eliminated tonight, so I’m going off that assumption. Also, I agree that Maks is all for family (hence why he’ll probably have Meryl pick Val/Danica first)
They pick (in order) –
M/M: Danica/Val, Amy/Derek, Drew/Cheryl
C/S: James/Peta, Candace/Mark
I feel that Meryl is really a good strategist and Maks isn’t AS bad of a strategist as we think – Meryl knows that Drew/Cheryl will be a weak link, and between Amy/Derek and Candace/Mark, Derek is the better choice because it’s not like Candace is doing better score-wise than Amy despite Amy having prosthetics.
Scenario #2: I agree Bethany, Meryl and Charlie both are familiar with Derek’s choreographic skills. Heck, they went to see DWTS last year to support Derek. Again, Meryl/Maks choose first.
They pick (in order) –
M/M: Danica/Val, James/Peta, Drew/Cheryl
C/S: Amy/Derek, Candace/Mark
I personally don’t think it’s a stretch for Charlie/Sharna to pick Amy and Derek first. Like some have said, superior choreography >> better dancers.
If Tony/Nene get eliminated tonight, it sure makes Maks and Meryl’s family vs. strategy choice way simpler.
If Derek&Amy, James&Peta and Sharna&Charlie are on the same team and this would really be my dream team, they will win, I’m 100%. I love Sharna’s routines, I think she’s really creative. And Derek…well, no words needed 🙂 and Peta isn’t that bad either.
Leann/Kristine/Katrina, please pick one name to post with.
Word, Jessica – I know Meryl and Derek have history, but the celebs do tend to defer to their pros when it comes to who gets picked for what team, since it’s the pros that have to work together to choreograph the routine. And I just do not see Maks swallowing his pride and picking Derek for his team – even though it would basically be a guaranteed win. Just too much history there.
I don’t think TPTB will let both Meryl & Charlie have a team lead spot. Just too contrived to keep shoving the “which one is better” down our throats! Oh wait….yes they will!
Agree with the TEAM Derek/Mark/Peta simply because James seems highly capable of doing anything Derek would ask. And PETA, well I think she would see the light, and let Derek do the bulk of the choreo. She likes winning, period. Plus I’m sure it would be sweet to pull that off against the rest of the family.
Really and truly, I think the only two pros who would not defer to Derek on choreography are Maks & Val – I think every other pro has somehow benefited from having Derek on the team during a team dance at some point, and know he’s a sure thing: Cheryl on multiple occasions, Tony in season 15, Sharna in season 16, Peta in seasons 16 & 17, and Mark on multiple occasions. Hell, Maks’ only two team dance wins came when he was on a team with Derek. But if by some unfortunate circumstance Derek ended up on a team with both of them, I think they’d edge him out and tell him to go sit in the corner while they choreographed the whole thing. They just seem to have too much pride where he is concerned.
@Susan, #3, I would love to see that team too.
Maks did defer to Derek when he was with Hope Solo – or at least it appeared that way. But Derek was captain. It’s also possible that Val gets shouted down in terms of deferring to Derek, a la Karina last season. Karina straight up said to Derek “You’ve never lost. Don’t start now.” Or something along those lines, making it clear that he was in charge. It’s common knowledge that he’s never lost so Val may be SOL when it comes to wanting to be in charge.
I thought that snooki was eliminated based on her previous week scores… (foxtrot)
I’m sure it will be interesting. I am assuming Drew is going home tonight but would like it to be Nene and I’m also assuming Meryl and Charlie will be team leaders. So it will be “la familia” against the best supportive pros, imo.
Meryl – Danica, James, Nene
Charlie – Amy, Candice
Like Charlie’s teams chances. Also, I agree with the majority the C bros would never pick Derek for their team. Such a shame when childish and ego behavior get in the way of what could be excellent choreographed and danced routines.
I feel like if Derek were to be on a team with Maks or Val (like you said, in some unfortunate circumstance) I don’t see Derek being the type of person to even pick a fight with either of them. This is actually what I respect and admire most about Derek, he doesn’t let his ego come in front of the overall goal of the team or partners – which is to let the celebs shine.
We all know how Maks is when it comes to personal feelings/ego over the actual interest of his celeb — because he shunned Karina (for like 6 seasons) and her partners out many times via team dances even though having them on their team would have been more beneficial and people had to kind of work around that issue to always separate them.
@Carlos – No, remember last season, it was previous week’s votes + current week’s scores? Snooki’s team dance score factored into her elimination.
I want to see James and Charlie on the same team preferably with Amy.
Meryl and Charlie are probably going to end up being team captains. I think that scenario #1 is the most likely right now but this week’s scores could change that. The team dance captains are determined by the highest averages if I’m remembering correctly. So let’s say that Charlie gets a 36 tonight and James gets another 40. Would that be enough to tip James over the edge and have him be the team captain instead of Charlie or no?
with Amy and Danica*
@Jocelyn – I said this in my post, but I guess I’ll reiterate: it’s highest CUMULATIVE score, not highest average scores. And right now, Charlie only has 2 more points than James – so even if Charlie gets a 36/40, if James gets a 39/40, James is now in second place and will be a team captain. Like I said – if Charlie has another so-so week with the judges and James knocks it out of the park again, it’s a possibility. Do I think TPTB will let that happen? No. I have a feeling the scores are going to feel a little extra calculated tonight, especially where Meryl, Charlie, James, Amy, & Danica are concerned…
@Carlos When Snooki was eliminated they added the previous week votes with the current week judge scores.
This is the first season they count previous week judge scores with previous week votes to eliminate a couple.
Oh thanks Courtney. You’re right you did say that in your post. Sorry, I usually skip to the bold. I have no patience. 😉
As a mod note: Please refrain from commenting on a post if you haven’t bothered to read the whole thing. That’s not only good netiquette (which I know is a dying thing) but it’s simple good manners. And you certainly shouldn’t admit that you haven’t read someone’s work when commenting on it. Very rude.
I don’t think they need to putz around with the scores to accomplish Meryl v. Charlie. They could just say, “These two have been dancing together for 17 years. Do you really think it’s fair to put them on the same team?”
Is there anyway that Danica could be a team leader? Could have the brothers against each other as one of tptb preferred scenarios. Id she gets all 10’s tonight, what kind of shenanigans on scoring would have to occur?
Add me to wanting Derek and Mark on the same team….I’d love Sharna on it too as maybe we’d see a Derek/Mark/Charlie dance for some brief moments in the mix which has been a dream of mine since the beginning.
Judy – Court said this in her post ” I would even say there’s an outside chance (wayyyy outside chance) that Amy or Danica (particularly Danica) could swoop in and knock both Charlie & James down a notch and take that #2 spot, since they’re both tied at 128. ” So Danica would essentially have to get something close to a perfect score & Charlie/James would have to have one of their worst weeks for this to happen.
Great post! Team dances are always so interesting. Last season when Val picked Bill first, I thought, well, of course. It made perfect sense to me that Val was never going to beat the unbeatable, so he stacked his deck low. Then instead of having to try to beat Team Derek, all he had to do was be mr. nice guy and meet expectations. He knew he wasn’t going to be eliminated, so it wasn’t going to hurt him to lose, and with the outside chance that they WOULD come out the winners, it would be a huge win with the worst dancers.
Personally, I would like to see it fall upon family lines this time. I would enjoy seeing what Peta&James, Sharna&Charlie and Derek&Amy, with maybe Candace&Mark would do.
As it stands right now, in order for Danica to be a team captain, she needs to score at least 4 points better than Charlie tonight – so if Charlie gets a 36, Danica HAS to get a perfect score in order to overtake him. And that’s assuming she also has 2 points on James – he’s got the best chance of bumping Charlie out of 2nd place, because he only needs to score 3 points higher than him. So let’s say Charlie kinda bombs and gets a 35 (which is still 2 points better than his switch week score), James gets a 39 (one point less than he got last week), and Danica gets a 39 (same score she got last week) – Danica’s got the points to get past Charlie, but not James, so James gets 2nd place and the second team captain spot. And you can replace Danica’s name with Amy’s to see what she needs – they both are tied right now at 128.
To make it really simple: if Charlie scores a 39 or higher, he’s untouchable in 2nd place, and if Meryl gets a 38 or higher, she’s untouchable in first place. So even if every other contestant gets a perfect score tonight, as long as they each get the minimum scores I just stated, they will definitely be the team captains. But that’s not to say that if they score lower, they won’t be team captains…just means it’ll depend on how James, Danica, & Amy do…
With Maks on the show – I dont think it’s all about keeping it with the family, but its more finding people he’s not going to clash alot with Maks who can’t get along with a door. Obviously, you put Derek and Maks in the same group, its going to be ugly in NOT a good reality TV way.
Val picking Bill and Emma is WHY I LOVE VAL MORE THEN MAKS! He respected him so he picked him.
And I think you’re underestimating how much the C Bros get along with Mark. They both see problems with the judges and they’ll have Shirley Ballas to deal with if they dont (I think they really respect good ol Shirles.)
Another reason why I dont like Maks on the show anymore…. there is tension with him on there. Val will make crabby comments on occasion but hes more likely to keep things civil.
In reality – I would love for a Meryl/Maks, James/Peta, and Sharna/Charlie finale because I would love for Sharna and Peta to PWN Maks. The girls will out smart him and win it all. GIRL POWER!
Not that there’s really any possibility of this happening, but I’d love to see Sharna/Charlie, Meryl/Maks, James/Peta, & Amy/Derek on a team.
If Charlie isn’t a team captain, do you think Meryl/Maks take them to make things any easier with their traveling?
I forgot to add – I doubt they’d want to put Charlie and Meryl on the same team…. there is more to play up when they’re on different teams.
Maks and Derek have gotten along perfectly fine on a team dance before with Derek in Charge. I think you’re overstating it a good bit, Megan.
Oh yeah, I forgot about that one.
That will be interesting to see who gets to be captain! Fun to read the guesses. I don’t really have any myself.
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What were the individual scores last Dance?
Week 7 looks interesting and it will be interesting to see who goes home next. I would think Nene has a larger fan base outside the DWTS, but people are falling in love with Candace more so than before and may just vote for her to keep her in and vote Nene out. The kicker for me is seeing Denica in Jeopardy. They score so high. I think people are so in love with Maks they vote for them leaving Denica behind. I think we have one more week with Nene but not after. I can’t see her being more popular than the other contestants. I love Tony, just need to put it out there.