Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Here’s the thing…when we get into the weeks where there are TWO dances, the margins get tighter, instead of bigger. More points are handed out. But the big question is – do the points handed out to the eliminated dancer count in the overall judges score? Because THIS WEEK, it could make all the difference in the world. People are worried about Charlie and James, but they don’t have it that hard in terms of what they have to get in votes to make up the difference in the judges scores – honestly, no one appears to be uber safe this week, I don’t think.

Let’s get right to it, shall we? See the table below for the judges scores and the percentage of the total for each celebrity, with NeNe’s scores included.

Wk 7 Table 1

If ever there were a week that Charlie wasn’t 7 points behind Meryl, this week was it, but a lot of the blame for that is laid on the Team dance. Team Loca was obviously superior to Team Vida in every way that counts. Would have been a lot happier with only a 2 point difference on the individual dance.  Thought that Danica’s score for her individual dance was VERY generous – taking a page from the Amy detractors, shouldn’t she be scored just like everyone else? Yeah, I thought so. :-D  Even scoring her just against herself, that was generous. But face it – they were giving her a break because she was injured. Happens all the time. LOL

But what do these scores mean for the elimination? Well, James is on the bottom, but not by a lot, which is going to make this week difficult to call.  See below.

Wk 7 Table 2

Okay, look at those numbers – those are TINY margins between most of the dancers. James needs less than 2k votes per million votes cast to stay over Charlie, but Charlie only needs the same number to stay over Danica. And Danica needs less than 4k to stay over Candace – this makes my brain hurt just a bit. I wouldn’t call Amy or Meryl absolutely safe either – I think both are in striking distance if one of the boys has a bunch of rabid and/or pissed off fans.  The motto this week? NO ONE is safe.   Any one of them could be in the bottom three. Of course, I have an idea of who could really be going home, but I’m totally not certain if that’s what will happen.

Before we get there, let’s take a quick look at what happens to the voting requirements when you remove NeNe’s score from the equation. Suddenly, Meryl is looking a tiny bit safer…

Wk 7 Table 3

The number of total points handed out drops to 440 and it results in some significant increases between those at the bottom of the leader board and those at the top. Well, really, how do you define “significant” in this show? Hard to say without knowing the vote totals every week. Let’s just say that Amy and Meryl have a bit more breathing room, but I’m still not sure either of them are safe if this is the method used to determine who goes home.  I go back and forth with which method they use – this week I’m leaning toward tossing NeNe’s scores. No, I don’t know why.

Going by table #3, James needs about 2,300 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over Charlie and 4,600 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over Danica. And I’m torn as to whether he is actually managing that. Yes, he has bucket loads of fangirls and he’s cute as hell, but so is Charlie. Charlie doesn’t have as many twitter followers, but many think that he’s getting screwed and they may be voting for him harder. Danica? Well, Danica and Candace kinda fall into this iconic TV star category which is kinda hard to gauge. James was the last one to be called safe last week so he has that going for him…but Charlie was in jeopardy also!! Oy veh.

The problem with using the jeopardy theory this week is that I strongly suspect that James and Charlie were specifically put in jeopardy so that all of team Vida would be in jeopardy – TPTB can be so predictable with stuff like that. The only person who has gone home so far that was last to be called safe in the weeks before was Cody. Candace was last to be called safe and she’s still there. Hard to know what to make of it all, but if I were a betting woman, I would bet that Charlie is safe and that James is too – just because seeing him as the last one standing would drive his fangirls into at least a one week frenzy. J

So, I think that James and Charlie are safe using the following theory – James is getting the roughly 4k to get past Danica and probably the 2k to get past Charlie. Regardless of whether James is beating Charlie or not, I would bet that Charlie is getting the 2k votes per million votes cast to beat Danica.  This drops Danica to the bottom and the only question is who’s down there with her??

Personally, I’m leaning towards James and Charlie BOTH beating both Danica and Candace at this point. Candace had a good week last week, but she’s and Danica both have been kind of invisible for me lately, for different reasons.  So if Charlie and James are both beating Danica and Candace, Danica and Candace would have to try to get past Amy and they would need roughly 7k and 3k, respectively. I don’t think they are doing that, but if they are, that means that James and Charlie would have to both beat Amy to stay out of the bottom two – and they would need 11.5k and over 9k respectively. I tend to not believe that one is happening, but it’s very difficult to say.

See why this is hard?? These are not big numbers – or they shouldn’t be for each of these dancers for different reasons.

So, to sum it up:

  • James – I think he’s beating Candace and Danica, but not Charlie, Amy or Meryl
  • Charlie – I think he’s not getting beat by James, is beating Candace and Danica, and the jury is out on Amy and Meryl
  • Danica – I think she’s getting beat by James and Charlie, may be close to Candace, and the jury is out on Amy and Meryl
  • Candace – I think she’s getting beat by James and Charlie, but not by Danica – jury is out on Amy but she’s not touching Meryl
  • Amy – I don’t think that James is getting past her, Charlie might be, but I don’t think Danica is and jury is out on Candace and Meryl
  • Meryl is probably safe, but I’m not so sure that she’s at the top of the pack when all the votes are tallied and added to the judges score

Based on the above, I think Danica and Candace are in the bottom two. If Danica and Candace are in the bottom two, I think Danica goes home, since she would need nearly 5k votes per million (or 4k, depending on how they count) votes cast to get past Candace and I just don’t see her as having that much juice working for her. Yes, she was injured, but her sympathy vote was rather hijacked by Amy going to the hospital. Add in the fact that the C-bros fans are likely voting like crazy for Meryl and well…

Will they actually have Danica and Candace as the last two standing?? Who knows. If  Danica is safe, I expect they will call her safe first. If that happens, then I think it will be James and Candace and I’m leaning toward Candace going home.

Ultimately, I think Danica is my first choice for elimination, followed by Candace, then James. But with the scores like they are, ANYONE could go home tomorrow night.