Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think the writing is on the wall for Candace, this week, I’m afraid. I’ll be very surprised to see her make it to night two. Not that it matters. She made it to the finale with Meryl, Amy and James and she should be VERY proud of that fact. I’m willing to bet that Mark gives her an amazing freestyle and I’m looking forward to seeing it. I’m looking forward to seeing all of them, actually.

In case you’re wondering, my last DBTN post will be on Tuesday morning and will show what the various players have to do to WIN – even though I think the odds are pretty firmly behind Meryl at this point. It all depends on if Maks manages a great Freestyle compared to the others. If they all suck, then he’s fine, but if Mark, Derek and Peta put on amazing freestyles and he doesn’t?? It might change the game. It might not, but it could.  And before you start squawking about facebook…that seems to work for who gets eliminated, but I wouldn’t be so sure that it works for who WINS. You have to think about how Facebook likes actually work. You also have to consider the fan groups involved. Do you think that the Meryl and Maks fans are doing everything they can to make sure ALL of them go to facebook and “like” those photos, now that it seems to show something?? I sure do. Do all fan groups do that? Beyond one tweet, probably not. Now that people know it appears to work, they will work harder to “like” – yes, it is extremely counterintuitive, but does that surprise you? You also have to consider that some people probably “like” more than one person or dance – so while the lack of likes may show who’s leaving, an excess of likes may not indicate a WIN.  Then there is a duration issue. How long do they wait between posting photos?? Is one couples photos going up first?  Just some things to consider.  I may analyze it more once the season is over – more from an intuitive angle than an actual math angle.

Anyway. This week I just left out the part of the post that includes Charlie’s numbers and went straight to the four remaining dancers. Sue me, I’m tired and I want to do something else. Here’s how it stacks up after two dances:

Week 9 Table 1

That order right there is how I think it will end up, on Tuesday, although it’s heavily dependent on the scores. Anyway, Meryl’s only got a 2 point lead on Amy and a 4 point lead on Candace. Not many points, but at this stage of the game it does equate to a good number of votes.

Week 9 Table 2

For Candace to make it to Tuesday night, she needs one of three things to happen:

  • Candace needs about 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than James, OR;
  • Candace needs about 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • Candace needs about 26,200 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

I really don’t see any of that happening. It’s too stacked against her.  Both she and James have been the last one standing a couple times, so I think if Candace can pass anyone, it will be James. If she were to do that James would need to get past either Amy or Meryl which involves:

  • James would have to get 6,600 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • James would need 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

If anything is going to work, he would get past Amy. He is the big heart throb after all. The only question is if the girls are seriously voting. He could be getting past Amy, but that only matters if Candace is getting past him. We won’t know until Monday night.

So, I think that Meryl is the only one safe for sure. The other three are in jeopardy. I predict that Candace is the one to be eliminated on Monday.  If Candace is beating James, I think Amy could go home because James doesn’t have to do much to get past her. Remember…heart throb. :-)

Here’s another prediction for you – I predict that if James makes it into the finale, they call him safe FIRST. Just to mess with ya’lls heads. Well, Meryl and Maks fans heads. We’ll see. And if they call Candace safe first? Amy fans should be worried.