DWTS Season 19, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, I have to say that I’m really pleased with the dancing we saw last night. The show as a whole was rather sloppy, but that’s somewhat typical for the first show of the season when it’s jam packed with people. Anyway, I just loved it. Of course, Derek is my favorite, but I can’t really pick another favorite. Love Jonathan, Sadie, Tommy, Alfonso, Randy, Lea….and of course, Bethany.
For those of you new to this blog, this is the post where I figure out how many votes the various couples need in order to stick around. The math is fairly simple: you add up the total number of points handed out over the night, divide that total into each couple’s individual score for their percentage of the judges scores. The viewer votes are handed the same way – the total number of votes is divided into a couples votes for a percentage. The two percentages are then added together and the couple with the lowest combined total goes home.
Let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages:
Now, as much as I love Sadie, I don’t think she is only 2 points back from Alfonso and 2 points ahead of Bethany and Lea. And she’s certainly not that far ahead of Randy. Nope. But she probably has the weakest fanbase on the show of those who can actually dance, so they might be protecting her a tiny bit. Although I don’t think that’s necessary.
Why? Well, while we have some absurdly high scores for week 1, we also have some really low scores for week 1. And sadly, most were deserved. Personally, I enjoyed Betsey WAY more than Lolo – and I would bet the average viewer agrees with me. But Betsey is at the bottom. Here’s what she needs to do to stick around:
She only needs, roughly, 5,400 votes per million votes cast in order to stay over Lolo. Call me crazy, but I think she gets those votes. And Lolo kinda did it to herself with the constant talking. I could certainly be wrong, but she took a dance that was hard to watch and turned it into a whole segment that was hard to watch. Thank god for Tom Bergeron. Yikes. Anyway, I think Betsey gets past Lolo. Good thing, too, because I don’t think she’s going to make it past either Michael or Antonio – Antonio, while somewhat wooden, certainly has his fans. Michael is just adorable and I want him to stay forever. But I feel that way about half the cast right now.
For the sake of argument, let’s say that Betsey is totally safe. What does Lolo have to get in order to also be safe? She needs the following:
She needs roughly 8,100 votes per million votes cast in order to beat either Michael or Antonio and honestly, I would be shocked if she got it. I feel very bad for Keo – I don’t want him to go. She needs 13,450 to get past Tommy and I don’t see that happening either.
So, without belaboring the point, I think Lolo goes home. If it’s not Lolo, it will be Betsey – it’s possible that where I saw charming, many saw trainwreck. If there’s a shocker I will do a post results explanation of what I think happened.
One final point, with all the characters in this cast, there are a couple people who need to watch out. Janel is the big one, IMO. All the hype she and Val have been putting out there and I don’t think she lived up to it. Make no mistake – she’s a decent dancer. But she got off easy – they tagged Lea as the ringer when Janel has more recent experience and got off scott free. This pisses me off…but by the end of the show I had forgotten about her. This leads to dangerous, shocking elim territory in coming weeks. Unfortunately, there are a lot of good dancers that could fall in to this trap – Lea, maybe Sadie and possibly Bethany (although with Derek as a partner, she will stand out whether she wants to or not). I love all three of them, but they are going up against Tommy, Randy, Alfonso, Jonathan and Michael?? These guys are not necessarily better dancers but they command the screen. Even if they are not the best dancers, you grow to LOVE them. So watch out, girls – this is a tough season.
Oops, iPhone error there!
Anyway, great post Heidi! Very interesting to read. I really wanted to like Lolo but she put me off last night and I can imagine same for most viewers. As you said, she dug herself a hole with later comments. She could have had potential and maybe got some more votes had she zipped it! Shame because I really like Keo. Hope it’s not the last we see of him.
Other than Lolo, I kinda liked everyone last night!
Hmm. I think it’s possible that you MAY be underestimating Sadie’s fan base. But as always, great numbers post (especially for those of us who don’t like math!).
I love these posts – thanks Heidi.
I too think Lolo shot herself in the foot (mouth) last night and think she will be going home.
I also think there is so many personalities with great potential that I think it will be hard to pick the final three at least for a few weeks (except for Alfonso).
Looking forward to the rest of the season.
I think you forgot about Tavis. He did ok but was not memorable to me. He is my pick if not Betsey. Jmo. I do agree that Janel was forgettable by shows end. I see her going the way of Christina Milian.
What do you mean I forgot about Tavis? In what respect? If you’re talking about my ending comments…well, if I forgot to mention him that should tell you something, eh? 🙂
…and apparently Lolo doesn’t understand that when the judges’ numbers are in they are in. Why oh why did she keep showing she could do “the dance”! Sweetheart, you do it when it counts.
Like the numbers as always.
I think the silent ground swell of fan bases will be Betsey’s and Sadie’s. Every family needs a weird aunt and the cousin everyone likes!
Oh, it’s so good to see this feature again. Thanks Heidi and I’m with you, I think it will be Betsey or Lolo going home. I think it will be Lolo just on attitude alone.
I’ll be so upset if Betsey goes home before Lolo.
Can someone explain Lolo to me? Why was she doing the prudish thing in her package, when she’s posed nude in the past? Why can’t she just admit that she needs to learn how to dance instead of making excuses (virginity, etc.) Poor Keo. I like him so much and hate to see him go. Also, love Betsey. Sure wish she would have gotten a better partner than Tony.
That’s what I mean about Tavis. I don’t think he falls into the lovable category like Michael or Tommy. So unless he has a good sized fanbase I’m not sure he’s staying after this week.
I agree that Lolo will (and should) go home. Would love for her to dance again to see if there is any redemption there as, on paper, she has what it takes to do really well in the competition. However, I can’t think of one star from last night that deserves to go home more than her.
It’s week 1, so it’s hard to gauge how the season will unfold. Last season people weren’t blown away by James off the bat, but he was able to find his footing. Also, everyone thought Candace would be one of the better dancers of the season after her Contemporary….
My thoughts…
If last night was an indication of how the season plays out, Alfonso, Lea & Sadie have a smooth sail ahead to the finals.
• Alfonso could get Macchio’d (as someone mentioned in another thread), but I have a feeling TPTB will give him a good arc to the finals.
•For dancing 2nd, Lea got great scores and will have strong appeal with the DWTS core audience; she seems genuine and humble. I think that in the next couple weeks she will have a big performance that paves her way to the finals.
*Sadie is young & cute, but doesn’t have her own dedicated fan base like past young competitors (Zendaya, Kyle Massey, James Maslow). However, as long as she doesn’t have some sort of scandal, which her family is prone to, she will build a younger audience and the Duck Dynasty and DWTS markets have a ton of overlap. I wonder if we are going to see her in any of her Sherri Hill Homecoming Line dresses this season…
•Bethany will have a good storyline, has a large base and being coupled with Derek pretty much assures she will get through to Week 9/Finals. She could easily sneak into the Top 3.
•Randy has great potential to be the dark horse this season. Masculine, brut men that allow themselves to immerse in the show tend to do well.
•Janel will probably be either the Christina Milian or Danica of the season; she will produce great scores but won’t catch on with the audience. Val is probably the best male choreo on the show, behind Derek, so I anticipate she will come out strong next week and improve consistently. (I’m a Mona fan, so secretly hoping she goes far! Haha)
I can see one crowd favorite breaking out and going pretty far. I think that will be Tommy but wouldn’t count Michael out yet. Tommy could be a one-hit wonder, but if he can turn it out, he will make it much further than originally expected.
Some people are touting Jonathan as the James Maslow of the season, but I don’t see it. He’s trying almost too hard right now and just doesn’t have that “it” factor. Also, to be the “heartthrob” you need to have some chemistry with your partner…the tension has to be palpable in the dance and general interaction, even if it’s platonic. He treats Alison like his “Karen,” which might work on Will & Grace but probably won’t on DWTS.
In a season with so many personalities, I see Antonio getting lost, and Cheryl saying this is her last season seems like a desperate plow to get sympathy votes, for everyone to throw her a bone (or a MBT).
First to go will be Lolo, Betsey & Tavis. Last season was one of great dancing; this will be one of great personalities! More excited about it than I thought I would be (hence the looooong post).
Forget my last post.
Ah, the first “Dancing by the Numbers” of the season! Along with the first “Power Rankings”, it makes the season real for me — just like the first daffodil, the first autumn leaf, the first snowfall…but I digress. 😉
This could be the easiest elimination of the season. If Lolo is toast, the only thing I’ll regret is losing Keo. However, Peta was one-and-done with Metta World Peace and got her MBT the next season with Donald. I’m sure TPTB will want Keo back next season, and if he uses his time wisely while he’s dancing with The Troupe, etc., he could learn a lot! Of all the new pros, I always felt he had the steepest learning curve since he was thrown into the deep end with no previous inside exposure to the weirdness that is DWTS.
I’d be sad to see Betsey go instead, but if she goes in week 2, I won’t be particularly upset. Her brand of kooky doesn’t have a long shelf-life with me.
I really hope Betsey stays. I really want to see their foxtrot!!!! I think it’s safe to say that we won’t be seeing anymore props this season lol.
Yikes! The numbers have spoken. Lolo seems to be the one going home; she has a tough climb to make to be safe from elimination. I may sound weird, but I’d really like her to stay one more week, because I want ALL celebs to stay more than a week. To me, it’s a bit cruel to dance once only and then you go home. No chance to redeem yourself. Hope next season, tptb doesn’t do it anymore.
Thanks for the first numbers post of the season, Princess Heidi!
Put me with those that predict Tavis to leave tonight. I think Betsey will be spared another week and Lolo is buzz for the show (and sets up quite a story arc for redemption).