DWTS Season 19, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!
I was cranky (apparently) when watching the show last night, cuz I wasn’t terribly impressed by anyone – except Bethany and Sadie, CAI’s least favorite girls. Well, I should say I *loved* Alfonso’s dance as well, but I could see what the judges were talking about. Totally don’t understand why Sadie got totally hosed. I’m thinking I’ll have to rewatch it. I think she danced better – more personality, less mugging – than Janel, and Janel is the one with training. Even though we should be calling her JanelNotADancer because it’s not getting mentioned on the show. I did see Len on All Access right after the show and he seemed to be regretting some of his marks. He only mentioned overmarking Jonathan, but he wanted to say more. Maybe about Sadie since she had so recently danced??
Anyway, let’s take a look at the Scores and percentages:
Well, I don’t know who I would put in first place, but I’m not sure it’s Lea. I love Lea, she’s a beautiful dancer and woman – but when I can see posture problems and wonder why the judges are raving, you know you got problems. Anyway, she was in jeopardy last week so she may not be getting the votes. But I do think there is enough of a cushion for her to be safe to dance another day. I also think there is little chance of Alfonso, Sadie or Bethany going anywhere – not yet anyway. Janel is likely fine as well, although I’m afraid her time will come.
That brings us to the lower half of the leaderboard. Well, lower two-thirds? Antonio I think is likely fine, for now, but only because there is much bigger cannon fodder than him. I also can’t be the only one who finds Randy hot. 🙂 The low man on the totem pole, score wise, is Michael. While I agree with what many have been saying, about him not having quite the charm combined with more limited dance skill, part of me thinks that his onesie giving him a wedgie may have bought him two weeks, not just one. I could certainly be wrong, but I’m leaning toward Tavis. But let’s look and see what it will take for Michael to be safe:
See, this is where it gets tough. Michael may be more likeable than Tavis, but that four points translates to 11k votes per million votes cast. That is tough. But he has four different people to choose from when it comes to beating them. Problem is that a couple of them are really likable as well. I adore Tommy and I can’t believe he would be going anywhere. I also thought Betsey was great last night – but she’s a tad on the weird and wild side. Tavis just talks too damn much and I find him ponderous and a bit annoying. I doubt I’m alone.
So, for Michael to be safe, he needs ONE of the following:
– 11k more votes per million votes cast than either Tavis, Tommy, Betsey or Randy, OR;
– He needs about 16.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan…
…and so on, as shown in Table 2.
Personally, I think he’s only within striking distance of the 11k votes of the people directly above him. But I’ve been wrong before. 🙂 Let’s say that Michael is getting the votes – what do Tavis, Randy, Betsey and Tommy need to be safe??
Well, not very much at all. Each only needs ONE vote per million votes cast than the others in their little group, and all of them only need 5,525 more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan. Hell, Sadie and Antonio are in easy striking distance as well…if not for the fact of Tavis and Michael being down below them, I’d be worried for them. Bethany too. But, I don’t see anyone other than Randy, Betsey and Tommy MAYBE making the leap over Jonathan. See, the one drawback to hosing a pro (Allison – deserved or not) is that it generates sympathy votes.
Anyway, I think that Michael can only beat Tavis. I think that Tavis might beat Betsey, but I dunno. I don’t think he’s beating either Tommy or Randy, and I don’t think he’s catching Jonathan, Sadie or Antonio. I think the real bottom two is likely Michael and Tavis, but don’t be surprised to see Jonathan in jeopardy whether he’s really near the bottom or not. After Allison’s scolding and her speaking up in the Skybox, combined with the shock value of Betsey being safe again, I kinda look for the last three left standing to be Michael, Tavis and Jonathan.
There’s kind of a lot of weak dancers with great personalities, so I could be way off base here. At the end of the night, I think Tavis goes home. If it’s not him, then Michael. If there’s a shocker…Randy because he went so early in the night.
I agree . Last night felt flat and i only really liked alfonso sadie and beth. Betsy was sweet and i like her attitude but shes not that great bless her . I think tavis may go partly due to his lack of technique but also when you compare his attitude to betsys there is a world of difference .
Just excellent. This feature always helps me to understand the show better. Thanks so much. I am going to be sad for whoever leaves this time. I think it’s going to between Tavis or Michael too with Tavis leaving.
Thing is, Betsey is what? 25 years OLDER than Tavis?? It’s not that she’s a horrible dancer just for being horrible. She’s of advance age. Lots of shit don’t work the way it used to.
My gut feeling is that Michael and Tavis will be bottom two with Tavis going as well. Part of me did wonder if maybe Jonathan might be a surprise elimination but I think I’ll still with Tavis. While Tommy, Betsey, Tavis, and Randy might be able to get the votes to get past Jonathan I don’t think Michael would be able to, making Jonathan safe.
Do we know if there is an elimination next week. Logistically I don’t see how there could be as people would be voting based on that night’s performances. If not, when we get to week 4 we will still have 11 dancers left. That sure seems like a lot.
As always, love this series with all the thought, commentary…
I worry about Randy because he doesn’t have a schtick, isn’t old enough to “be adorable”…I don’t know if the fighting world will do any voting but I think nascar might have enough female fans who might fall into dwts demo to vote. Tavis covers some pretty important topics but I agree with many who have said that if he didn’t have the time in his life right now to do the show properly he shouldn’t have signed on. As much as I don’t want Sharna to leave, he’s who I want to leave. Or Michael, sorry. Part of me enjoys Michael, part of me doesn’t really, but I also don’t want Emma gone. My top faves are Sadie, Beth, Alfonso, Randy, Jonathon, and Lea and I think all but Randy really don’t need to worry this week so I used all my votes for Randy. I haven’t seen much chatter about him this week which worries me.
I love Sharna but she mentioned in one of the after party clips that because of Tavis’ book tour, she only got 10 hours with him this week compared to the average of 35 for everyone else. And she said it’ll be that way for the next 2 weeks until his book tour is over and she hoped fans would keep them in for the next 2 weeks to show what she can do with him given more time.
I totally get it from her angle but I’m not willing to trow someone else out, even Janel, because Tavis chose to do a book tour that only allows him 10 hours to practice this week and the next 2. That’s not fair to everyone else including Sharna. That’s Tavis’ fault. If he isn’t voted off tomorrow and can deliver the goods the next 2 weeks fine but if not, he should have picked a better time to do the show.
I agree Ashley. Not fair to the other couples. And really, how hard is a book tour? People have filmed soap operas and done concert tours during DWTS and managed more practice time.
The book tour is extremely time-consuming – he only gets about 4 hours of sleep a night, is up at like 5:30 doing interviews and readings and speeches and book signings, etc all day long. They got a few hours of rehearsal at about 11pm or midnight after the whole day – when he was most tired and worn out. Not excusing it and I think he should be the one to go as well. Just saying, it’s not as easy as it sounds when you hear “book tour.” 🙂
I was totally fed up with Tavis last night and the way he treated Sharna.
As has been stated many people who agreed to do the show had other commitments while on the show but they honored their contract and did the show to.
I felt he was just a big jerk and would like to see him go but feel really bad for Sharna.
OK don’t get mad at me but did Gleb get the boot again? Just wondering.
It looks like it was bad timing for Tavis. It could be the reason why Sharna and his partnership wasn’t announced until the last minute. He may not have had any idea what he was getting into. He must have grossly underestimated how many hours you have to put in, especially for someone with no dance experience. Plus, his poor attitude doesn’t help. He does talk a lot. That is usually a bad sign. I’ll be sad, more for Sharna, if he gets the boot today.
Is it just me or does Sharna seems a tad bit chummy with the C-bros clan lately??? I didn’t notice that last season.
Thanks for this post, as always.
I wish TPTB would come out and say whether an eliminated dancer’s votes still count, so you don’t have to run the numbers twice in future weeks. 🙂
I agree and think Tavis will be the one going home tonight – I can’t see him having a huge fan base.
The only ones I really enjoy watching are Bethany, Sadie, Tommy and Randy. Betsey looked beautiful last night and is having so much fun that I hope she gets to stay another week.
Kate, Sharna has been pals with them for a while now.
I worry about Randy because I don’t see much chatter about him anywhere. I don’t think MMA or wrestling fans would watch show for him or vote like crazy.
Michael has tough hill to climb in terms of getting votes to be safe from the chop block tonight. I’d like him to stay. In fact, I don’t want anyone to go just yet, even Tavis. I agree with you, Kate (1). He probably thought that he could just easily fit rehearsal time in between his other commitments. If he gets through this week, I think he’ll be able to reign in that frustration and especially that tongue.
Thanks for the numbers, Princess Heidi!
I see #EncoreJanel is trending – gag me. Where are all the Lea tweeters???
[…] you want to see my predictions of who is going home, along with Courtney’s predictions, click the links. Vogue is in there too, in the comments. […]
I’m hoping it’s Tavis.
I agree with your observation that CAI has issue with Bethany. My daughter LOVES Bethany and to see CAI literally fall on the ground with enthusiasm for other “marginal” performances and then just DEADFACE Bethany really soured my fondness for CAI. I actually found this site because I Googled “what CAI’s problem with Bethany?” I kind of feel like Derik is just tired and is only bringing about 75% of his talent to the practices. I think, if given the guidance, Bethany can find the talent to be a showstopper. So far it’s been, “Meh” but it’s not because she’s clodhopping all over the place like some of the others. I’m hoping it’s Derik’s strategy to not bring it all out too soon but play more of the Dark Horse or because he doesn’t want to push Bethany too hard while her foot is all jacked up. But CAI needs to drop the attitude and give Bethany the love she deserves.
Um, you’re blaming DEREK, the Emmy award winning choreographer, for Carrie Ann’s lackluster treatment toward Bethany??
Bethany should thank GOD, because Derek’s 75% (not that I even remotely agree) is everyone else’s 110%.
I think Bethany’s foot needed that rest and I’m glad she got it.
Derek is by far the most talented choreographer on the show and knows how to take care of and bring out the best from his partners.
I have stopped reading val’s fan tweets and I am so done with the brain washed C brothers fans. So they are happy and applauding the fact Julianne hit the floor so hard when Val dropped her in rehearsal. They think it is so funny you could hear her hit the floor with such force. REALLY!!! Well why is it that every other male dancer could throw her around in that dance, Tony lifting her over his head and flipping her backwards over his head to Artem yet Val can’t lift her and roll her over his shoulders. I don’t care if you like a pro or not but I would never want to see any of them seriously injured.
I hate CAI and am tired of her jealousy toward the young dancers.
I was really happy to see Sharna but very sorry she got stuck with such a douche bag.
That’s all.