DWTS19 Going Into Week 3 Las Vegas Odds: What do you think?
Well, the odds makers for Dancing With The Stars were definitely wrong last week at Sports Bovada. Though I think many us never guessed that Tavis Smiley would be eliminated this week. So, what does this all mean for Dancing With The Stars Season 19 Week 3? Note how Lea has moved up the ladder to second place with 11/4 odds. I’m still not really convinced on her yet and that she will make it to the final four? As tight as the odds are, I wonder why Sadie and Bethany aren’t placed higher too? I think they are better than Janel. I think I agree with how the other couples are placed and their odds. Let’s see what Heidi and Court think? You can read their comments below. Be sure to let us know what you think too in comments.
Alfonso Ribeiro 5/2
Lea Thompson 11/4
Janel Parrish 3/1
Bethany Mota 5/1
Sadie Robertson 7/1
Antonio Sabato Jr. 20/1
Jonathan Bennett 20/1
Randy Couture 33/1
Tommy Chong 50/1
Betsey Johnson 100/1
Michael Waltrip 200/1
Last week’s Odds:
Alfonso Ribeiro 3/2
Sadie Robertson 3/1
Bethany Mota 7/1
Lea Thompson 15/2
Janel Parrish 8/1
Jonathan Bennett 10/1
Randy Couture 15/1
Tavis Smiley 15/1
Antonio Sabato Jr. 25/1
Tommy Chong 33/1
Betsey Johnson 100/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Courtney: I’m convinced now more than ever that Janel could be a surprise snub for the finale – starting to get the same vibe from her that I got from both Elizabeth & Danica, and we saw what happened in both of those instances. So I’m definitely not buying 3/1 odds for her to win. Bethany & Sadie are a bit trickier – I think both are likely just as popular (if not more so than Janel), but neither one has had a really impactful, look-at-me dance yet. From what we’ve heard, this week could be the week that Bethany finally makes a big splash (no pun intended, given their song :-P). Apparently Sadie is looking quite good as well – Janel’s got a tougher row to hoe this week, I think, because she’s now pitted against Bethany, who is also doing jazz. And I get the feeling Sadie fans are a bit peeved at how she was treated this past week…so it will be interesting to see who ends up in jeopardy this coming week. As for the bottom & middle of the pack – still think Randy’s getting lowballed a bit, and I’m thinking Jonathan isn’t as good as they think – after this past week, I think he may have a bit of a liability in Allison, who is still learning the ropes of DWTS. Not quite sure what to make of Antonio – he was more likeable this week, but I still feel like I keep forgetting him altogether.
Heidi: It’s pretty clear, once again, that the odds makers are going mainly with the scoring, which is rather foolish. With the exception of Alfonso, of course. I think most people see the word “winner” written on his forehead at this point. As for Janel, not only does she have the Danica/Elizabeth problem that Courtney mentioned, she also has the Cody/James problem. That being, I don’t think the show can sustain her AND Bethany AND Sadie – and my money is on Bethany and Sadie. People tend to pick ONE of a certain type, so either Bethany or Sadie could be in trouble once Janel is gone (week 7 or 8 – let’s bet on that), but this season it might work out that they both make the semi-finals, at least, because the rest of the pack aren’t as competitive when it comes to dancing. At least right now. Much as people like to say otherwise, scores DO count for half and if Bethany, Sadie and Alfonso are scoring significantly higher than the rest, then they could stick around. Randy, Jonathan and Antonio are the wild cards in this situation. If their dancing improves, then one of them could send either Bethany or Sadie home after Janel. Question is, can the show sustain both Randy AND Antonio??
That is about right really. Alfonso has the three hardest dances ticked off so it could be plain sailing really
Im one of those people who see “winner” written on Alfonso’s forehead. At the moment im having a hard time seeing anyone beat the guy. It seems he has everything going for him that it takes to win this show. 1. A good dancer. 2. A big fanbase that falls right in the main voting demo. of dwts. 3. A good partner in Witney. 4. Likeable, fun, good personality.
Also I Was reading the comments on youtube about the latest afterbuzz show. Someone commented how over at the official dwts facebook page how other than hating on Julianne, it was all about Alfonso and Sadie. I think the facebook page it a pretty good indication of how people are voting, who people like.
Heidi’s right in that they clearly just based the odds on scoring, which almost never works out with DWTS. I’m sure the odds makers in Vegas care enough about DWTS to look beyond the scores though!
I still think Alfonso should be at the top but I really think people are underestimating Sadie. I see her mentioned A LOT more than either Janel or Bethany and I just think she has the likability factor that is so important on this show. I really am hoping for a surprise boot for Janel pre-semi finals just to further prove to Val how wrong he was in his approach this season. I guess I just worry Bethany may go before her. I do also worry about Randy as well. I’m hoping he makes a splash this week.
@Nathan – I was just thinking the same thing about Alfonso earlier. Smoother sailing from here on out.
@kelly a – I agree. Alfonso is the Complete Package.
I would swap out Lea with Sadie and then the top 4 could be about right. Alfonso, Sadie, Bethany, and Janel. With the outside chance of Randy and/or Johnathan taking that 4th spot.
I think that DWTS is tying to get the twitter world more interested in the show, thus the addition of Bethany, Janel, and Sadie. Janel I am a bit wishy washy about her popularity on twitters. So, in this cynical mind I can see TPTB putting one of the 3 in jeopardy each week to “encourage” the twitter followers to get revved up for their favorite celeb/pro. Whenever they have done twitter votes before I don’t remember Tom ever suggesting who should win. Last Monday (maybe it was Tuesday, I’ve had the flu…lol) just prior to twitter voting, Tom suggested that Tony should win. Who won? Mark. Knowing they are going to do this each week is interesting as it begins to take one pro out of the contest each week. I know the data is skewed by virtue of the fact that in this last week those those tweeters who voted for Derek in the first week not re-enter the mix and vote for a different pro and with each successive week there will be less pros to vote for. We can’t answer the question of whether those Derek and Mark voters will participate in the twitter contest next week, or just sit back and not vote because “their pro” is out of the vote. I do think Rob Wade is relatively smart because how he is pushing the twitter vote at this point is not fo things that can dramatically change the standing of the couples so their is less complaining about it. I guess I don’t have a point…lol. It is just interesting.
Lynne I don’t think we’ll see any more audition tapes
There’s no more result shows
Three hardest dances…that are right in his wheelhouse. He may not fare so well at Ballroom.
Kelly a – facebook failed in a HUGE way in last seasons finale. For one thing, people now know to watch it, that it’s a thing. That makes it no longer accurate because people change their behavior.
Secondly, it was only good at indicating who was going to go home, NOT the actual ranking. It only got the winner right in that case, and failed on the rest of the top 4.
I wouldn’t have Janel so high. I personally like her but it seems most people are pretty meh. I would have Sadie higher than Bethany. I doubt that Antonio can get a higher placement than Jonathan.
Even though Alfonso is the frontrunner, I sense TPTB are trying to take him down a notch or two, sort of the way they did with Charlie. I hope he doesn’t let them get into his head the way I thought Charlie did. I want to see him take it.
I think Sadie will be Alfonso’s biggest competition. The judges knocked her for a reason last week and I think it was because she is running away with the votes.
As for Bethany, I think we’re seeing that You Tube charisma is not translating to television. I know Derek will do all he can and I hope he can get her to the finals. Based on last week’s disastrous ratings, I’m guessing You Tube fans are not crossing over TV. Part of the problem may be that she has so many international fans.
Janel confuses me. She is so talented and seems sweet, but I think there is also a sense of urgency about her. I thought her demeanor might be her Achilles heel even before the season started, but I think she will greatly benefit by the pimping, which has clearly already begun. I do think they will push her to the finals. The powers hold a lot of power of persuasion and, as we saw last season with the showmance shoved down our throats, it works.
It’s hard to say who will go next, but my guess is Mike.
Again, to put ratings increases or decreases on any one celeb or pro, unless they are HUGE (see Enrique), is not logical.
For example, the cast was so panned before the season started that maybe a couple million regular viewers tuned out, but the total viewers stayed around 12.5 million BECAUSE of Beth’s additional couple million. There is no way of knowing.
I don’t know how similar personality-wise Janel is to Sabrina (I didn’t see her seasons), but if Sabrina was eliminated on week 6, I have no doubt that Janel will be gone by then.
I think that they are overestimating Antonio’s staying power – while he is not the worst dancer, he’s not the best – and, he’s pretty forgettable. In the comments on people’s top 5 favorite couples, I think his name is easily the least mentioned, which doesn’t bode well for him. Unless the next elimination is done purely on judge’s scores, I think there’s a chance that Antonio is the next out, because everyone else is either a better dancer, has a more memorable personality, or both.
The Ricky Martin guest judging as PH had a ratings increase but remember last Monday had huge competition with Gotham premiering and Big Bang Theory.
I think Gotham and voice will flatten out.
BBT is huge and will stay so. DWTS will stabilize
Now too many people don’t watch live with so many other platforms available.
still 12.5 mill is better than most shows on tv.
I think 12.5 mill is pretty good! The season premiere of Greys Anatomy had 9 mill and it’s a great show with a huge following so DWTS did good in my opinion
PH…of a “certain type” Never considered that, but I think that’s right on. It’s Sunday, before Monday, Week 3. The only dances I remember from week 2: Sadie’s, Bethany’s, Leah’s, Betsy’s Alfonso’s and Michael’s because it was so gosh-awful. Could not even tell you what Janel had on or her favorite jam.
The odds makers remind me of horse bookies who work on history and other variables to determine the best in the race. I agree Alfonso is the best and he’s got a great “jockey” in Witney. But hey the horses coming around the bend hot on the leaders’ tail sometimes pull it off. I think Alfonso will come up short and be beaten by a nose much like Joey Fatone was edged out by Apollo Ohno.