DWTS Season 19, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Wow. What a night. And not really in a good way. While I certainly think that Julianne is ten times the judge that Carrie Ann is, all of them needed a good smack the other night for being so ungodly rude. No, I do not disagree with some of the scores they were handing out (although Sadie and Alfonso got hosed in a big way), but the timing and the comments. You wanna use those paddles, how about NOT throwing out 6’s, 7’s and 8’s to those same people for the first four weeks.  You say “Oh, it’s now week 5, we have to get tough. NO! THIS IS STUPID THINKING!  No matter how often you say that’s what you’re doing, it just comes off as dumb – and as if you’ve had the realization if you don’t start scoring some of those guys low, they’re going to stick around for a while. :::rolls eyes:::

I will say that one time that I loved was when CAI asked Val what his dance was supposed to mean – thanks for asking what all of America was probably trying to figure out. Val, you have potential but you have a long way to go before you hit Derek’s level. A long way. And you’ll never get there as long as they keep giving you partners with dance experience. You need a Joanna…and more clarity of vision. And pills that help you resist the showmance bug.

What else did I like? Well, not very much. Alfonso and Sadie were fantastic. Bethany was very good. And that was pretty much it. Problem is that I heard some of what went on behind the scenes and it just makes me feel bad. This is my happy, shiny dance show and they’re determined to screw it up. And no, it’s not Julianne’s presence or Len’s absence – that’s too simple minded.

Anyway, let’s have a triple elimination and get this sucker over with. Hell, no Macy’s Stars of Dance? Pro numbers that aren’t even close to the quality that we got back in seasons 5 and 6 (but which bear a striking resemblance to a strip show)? And now Burlesque, Bollywood and Broadway?? Screw that. I joined this ride to see BALLROOM DANCING. And we have a Déjà vu downtown if I wanted to see that shit. I’m not a prude – far from it. I’m just BORED out of my skull with the exact same female centric pro dance every week where the only thing that changes is the color of the skimpy costume. And really, you know it’s bad when I’m yelling at my TV for Val to put his damn shirt on, I’m sick of seeing his damn chest. That much pride in a man will be his downfall.

:::sigh::: It’s safe to say that this past week’s show just pissed me off. In large part because I had such high expectations, I suppose. I expected fun and I got….crap.

Part of the problem is also that this season started off so well – and so much better than Season 18. Like, a thousand times better than the Showmance Season, where we could have fun with the characters (Tommy, Michael), giggle along with Jonathan, wonder why Artem was not correcting Lea’s posture problem, laugh in a very uncomfortable way at Antonio…and so on. But they put a huge cloud over the whole show the other night with their behavior.

Anyway…when you look at the total scores of the couples, the REAL reason for the 5 and 6 paddles becomes glaringly apparent. They pretty much guaranteed that either Jonathan or Michael is going to go home. Even Antonio feels a bit bullet proof with these scores.  Let’s take a look at where everyone ended up by the end of the night.

Table 1

Nearly 30 points between first place and last place. Hell, there is 20 points between *fifth* and last place. When the number of points handed out increases, the margin decreases – but there is nothing that will protect the bottom two in this case, unless Jonathan and Michael both are doing far better in votes than I think they are.  Lordy.

Michael is low man on the totem pole – what will it take for him to be safe? Take a look…

Table 2

As you can see, Michael only needs to get about 5,200 votes per million votes cast to get past Jonathan. And I think it’s very possible he can do it. That’s chump change.  If he doesn’t manage that, he needs about 10,300 more votes per million votes cast than Tommy. I tend to think that’s less likely. In addition, as much as I don’t think Antonio is going to last much longer, I have a hard time believing Michael can get 21k to beat him.

So, while I think Michael might beat Jonathan, I don’t think he beats anyone else just yet.   But what about Jonathan? If Michael manages to get past Jonathan, what does Jonathan have to do to be safe?? See below.

Table 3

In order to be safe, Jonathan needs ONE of the following:

– He needs for Michael to NOT get the 5,200 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– He needs to get 5,200 more votes per million votes cast than Tommy, OR;
– He needs to get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Antonio

And so on up the list. But does anyone think he’s actually getting the votes to get past Tommy?? He could be, but I tend to doubt it. Speaking of Tommy, how safe is he?

Table 4

To be safe this week, Tommy needs ONE of the following:

– He needs Michael not to get 10,300 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– He needs Jonathan not to get 5,200 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– Tommy needs to get 10,274 more votes per million votes cast than Antonio, OR;
– Tommy needs to get 24k more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, OR;
– Tommy needs to get31k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, OR;
– Tommy needs to get 37,700 more votes per million votes cast than Sadie OR Lea, OR;
– Tommy needs to get nearly 40k more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso.

Okay, so looking at all these tables leads me to a few conclusions:

  • Alfonso, Sadie, Lea, Janel and Bethany are definitely safe this week. I don’t see any of them getting beaten by either Michael, Jonathan or Tommy. Maybe Tommy in the case of a couple…but not the other two.
  • Antonio is *probably* safe, since Michael, Jonathan and Tommy have to get 21k, 15.5k and 10.3k, respectively, to beat him. Tommy might beat him, but the other two probably aren’t.
  • That leaves us with Michael, Jonathan and Tommy.

I have a hard time believing that either Michael or Jonathan are beating Tommy, so I think he’s probably safe.

That leaves us with Jonathan or Michael. My thought is that Michael can get the 5.2k more votes per million votes cast he needs to beat Jonathan, but I think it could be tight.

So, my thought is that Jonathan goes home. Michael is my second choice.  If someone else goes home – although I don’t think we’re into shocking elimination territory yet – then I’ll do a brief update to show what happened. If there is a double, I think both Jonathan and Michael hit the road.