DWTS Season 19, Week 6: Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, this week is interesting. And hard. Why? Well, Michael got a 30. That makes several things uncertain. Is he the weakest dancer left? That’s debatable. Honestly, I don’t think either Tommy or Antonio is that much better than him, although Tommy is equally charming in my book.  This puts Antonio at a disadvantage – it all hinges on his fanbase.

But then…some of you remember my analysis of “Jeopardy” I’m sure. Basically, if I remember correctly, about half the time, Jeopardy is actually an indication of who will be going home soon, but ONLY for the person last to be called safe. Usually two weeks after being put in jeopardy and being last to be called safe. This is NOT as true if you are in the semi-final.  Anyway, Antonio hasn’t even been in jeopardy, has he? And he’s definitely never been last to be called safe. The other thing that was obvious from that analysis was that it’s hard to tell what their pattern is until the season is over.  But, Jonathan was last to be called safe two weeks before he left.  Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated in week 4. Michael has been last to be called safe a few times now.  And Janel was last to be called safe this past week. Maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t. More likely it does for Michael in the near term.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages.

S19 Wk 6 Table 1

As you can see, the margins are a bit lower this week, mainly because there is only 11 points between first place and last place. Granted, there was only one dance in the mix, but it’s still better than the massive point spreads of last week, but it also makes things harder to call. So, we’ll start with the easy ones.

Alfonso is safe – I think he’s most obvious for a couple reasons:

  • Tommy and Antonio would EACH have to get 37.6k more votes per million cast, AND;
  • Michael would have to get 31k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Everyone else would have to get some number of more votes per million votes cast.

I just don’t see that as even remotely likely at this point. No way. Bethany? Also safe. Why?

  • Tommy and Antonio would each have to get 27.4k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Michael would have to get 20.5k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Lea would have to get 13.7k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Janel would have to get 10.3k more votes per million votes cast.

As for the rest, Sadie only needs 3,500 votes per million votes cast more than Bethany and she might be getting it – but it doesn’t matter when all those other people need those votes – and I doubt that any of them are getting those votes.  Alfonso? Not so sure Bethany and Sadie aren’t both beating him, but we probably won’t find out until the finale.  As for Sadie, I would call her safe as well, because…

  • Tommy and Antonio each need 24k more votes per million votes cast to beat her, AND;
  • Michael needs 17k more votes per million votes cast to beat her.

And Sadie could be getting the few votes she needs to get past Bethany. Hard to say. In any case, does anyone really think that Tommy, Michael and Antonio are getting the votes they need? Yeah, me neither. Neither are Janel or Lea.

So, what about our bottom two guys on the leader board? See below.

S19 Wk 6 Table 2

As you can see, Tommy and Antonio each would have to get about 7k more votes per million votes cast than Michael in order to be safe. And each only needs to get one more vote than the other to be safe. This is where I have trouble. I’m inclined to think that Tommy is getting the one more vote per million vote cast to beat Antonio.  After that, I’m just not sure.  Whose fanbase is voting – Antonio’s or Michael’s.  Let’s come back to this. Who over Michael?

S19 Wk 6 Table 3

What I realize right now is that I’m not sure of the safety of any of the bottom five, that is: Tommy, Antonio, Michael, Janel and Lea. Just not sure at all. Of all of them, I tend to think that Tommy is getting that one more vote than Antonio and will be called safe again. And I think he’s probably getting the votes to beat Michael. The question is: Is Antonio getting the 6.9k more votes per million votes cast to beat Michael, and is Michael getting that same number more than Lea to beat her?? This is where I think I’m having the most trouble.

I go back to my original train of thought: Antonio has never even been in jeopardy, while Michael and Lea both have been.  Hmmmm…..

Well, what about Lea and Janel? This is also very tricky.  See below:

S19 Wk 6 Table 4S19 Wk 6 Table 5

As you can see from the tables above, there is a tiny spread between Lea and Janel. TINY. I kinda think that Lea is getting that 3,500 more votes per million votes cast to beat Janel, and I don’t think that Janel is getting the votes to beat Sadie, Bethany or Alfonso. So, where does that leave us??

Well, it leaves me thinking that Alfonso, Bethany, Sadie, Lea and Tommy are safe.

And it leaves me thinking that Antonio, Michael and Janel are hovering around the low end of the bunch.  Now, while I think Janel is in the bottom of the pack, I doubt very much that Antonio is getting the more than 17k more votes per million votes cast to beat her, so I think she is safe once again this week.

We are left with Antonio and Michael. My gut feeling is that Michael is leaving us this week. But my gut also wonders if maybe Antonio is getting lost in the shuffle. Well, he would have been, but everyone was feeling or Cheryl this week, so I’m thinking that drove some votes their way.

Sorry if this post was long, but I had to logic it out for myself. I didn’t know who I thought was going home until I went through all of that. 🙂

So, I think its Michael. I think my second choice would be Janel or Antonio and I’m leaning toward Janel because of the stuff with Cheryl’s dad. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think Janel is long for the show, but I tend to think she has a couple weeks left in her yet.