DWTS Season 19, Week 6: Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, this week is interesting. And hard. Why? Well, Michael got a 30. That makes several things uncertain. Is he the weakest dancer left? That’s debatable. Honestly, I don’t think either Tommy or Antonio is that much better than him, although Tommy is equally charming in my book. This puts Antonio at a disadvantage – it all hinges on his fanbase.
But then…some of you remember my analysis of “Jeopardy” I’m sure. Basically, if I remember correctly, about half the time, Jeopardy is actually an indication of who will be going home soon, but ONLY for the person last to be called safe. Usually two weeks after being put in jeopardy and being last to be called safe. This is NOT as true if you are in the semi-final. Anyway, Antonio hasn’t even been in jeopardy, has he? And he’s definitely never been last to be called safe. The other thing that was obvious from that analysis was that it’s hard to tell what their pattern is until the season is over. But, Jonathan was last to be called safe two weeks before he left. Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated in week 4. Michael has been last to be called safe a few times now. And Janel was last to be called safe this past week. Maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t. More likely it does for Michael in the near term.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages.
As you can see, the margins are a bit lower this week, mainly because there is only 11 points between first place and last place. Granted, there was only one dance in the mix, but it’s still better than the massive point spreads of last week, but it also makes things harder to call. So, we’ll start with the easy ones.
Alfonso is safe – I think he’s most obvious for a couple reasons:
- Tommy and Antonio would EACH have to get 37.6k more votes per million cast, AND;
- Michael would have to get 31k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Everyone else would have to get some number of more votes per million votes cast.
I just don’t see that as even remotely likely at this point. No way. Bethany? Also safe. Why?
- Tommy and Antonio would each have to get 27.4k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Michael would have to get 20.5k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Lea would have to get 13.7k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Janel would have to get 10.3k more votes per million votes cast.
As for the rest, Sadie only needs 3,500 votes per million votes cast more than Bethany and she might be getting it – but it doesn’t matter when all those other people need those votes – and I doubt that any of them are getting those votes. Alfonso? Not so sure Bethany and Sadie aren’t both beating him, but we probably won’t find out until the finale. As for Sadie, I would call her safe as well, because…
- Tommy and Antonio each need 24k more votes per million votes cast to beat her, AND;
- Michael needs 17k more votes per million votes cast to beat her.
And Sadie could be getting the few votes she needs to get past Bethany. Hard to say. In any case, does anyone really think that Tommy, Michael and Antonio are getting the votes they need? Yeah, me neither. Neither are Janel or Lea.
So, what about our bottom two guys on the leader board? See below.
As you can see, Tommy and Antonio each would have to get about 7k more votes per million votes cast than Michael in order to be safe. And each only needs to get one more vote than the other to be safe. This is where I have trouble. I’m inclined to think that Tommy is getting the one more vote per million vote cast to beat Antonio. After that, I’m just not sure. Whose fanbase is voting – Antonio’s or Michael’s. Let’s come back to this. Who over Michael?
What I realize right now is that I’m not sure of the safety of any of the bottom five, that is: Tommy, Antonio, Michael, Janel and Lea. Just not sure at all. Of all of them, I tend to think that Tommy is getting that one more vote than Antonio and will be called safe again. And I think he’s probably getting the votes to beat Michael. The question is: Is Antonio getting the 6.9k more votes per million votes cast to beat Michael, and is Michael getting that same number more than Lea to beat her?? This is where I think I’m having the most trouble.
I go back to my original train of thought: Antonio has never even been in jeopardy, while Michael and Lea both have been. Hmmmm…..
Well, what about Lea and Janel? This is also very tricky. See below:
As you can see from the tables above, there is a tiny spread between Lea and Janel. TINY. I kinda think that Lea is getting that 3,500 more votes per million votes cast to beat Janel, and I don’t think that Janel is getting the votes to beat Sadie, Bethany or Alfonso. So, where does that leave us??
Well, it leaves me thinking that Alfonso, Bethany, Sadie, Lea and Tommy are safe.
And it leaves me thinking that Antonio, Michael and Janel are hovering around the low end of the bunch. Now, while I think Janel is in the bottom of the pack, I doubt very much that Antonio is getting the more than 17k more votes per million votes cast to beat her, so I think she is safe once again this week.
We are left with Antonio and Michael. My gut feeling is that Michael is leaving us this week. But my gut also wonders if maybe Antonio is getting lost in the shuffle. Well, he would have been, but everyone was feeling or Cheryl this week, so I’m thinking that drove some votes their way.
Sorry if this post was long, but I had to logic it out for myself. I didn’t know who I thought was going home until I went through all of that. 🙂
So, I think its Michael. I think my second choice would be Janel or Antonio and I’m leaning toward Janel because of the stuff with Cheryl’s dad. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think Janel is long for the show, but I tend to think she has a couple weeks left in her yet.
Oooh, I love it when we get to see your wheels really turning, PH. I’d never have the tenacity to work through all the scenarios the way you do. Yet when you explain your reasoning, it just makes sense.
It’s horrible to say, but I did wonder if Cheryl’s very unfortunate personal drama might provide Antonio some insulation from elimination.
I’d be fine with seeing Michael go. He’s had a good run and he seems sweet, but I don’t find him as adorable as Bill Engvall (and Bill was a better dancer too).
I love the number posts. I especially love them AFTER Monday’s night show when they make much more sense to me.
Cidra, agree with you on the Michael vibe. Not quite as charming as Bill. He was fun for 2 or 3 weeks but it’s time for him to head back “broadway.”
I had to read your numbers and explanation twice, Princess Heidi. It isn’t surprising if Janel or Antonio or Michael is leaving next week. I’ve mentioned in another post that I feel Tommy is getting more votes than Antonio. And I’d like to stay longer than Antonio, too. Now, I think he’s also getting more votes than Janel. I’m trying to recall, was Tommy ever in jeopardy?
Thanks for your thought-provoking numbers again, Princess Heidi!
Thanks PH, your posts on these numbers and analogies always fascinate me. I can never figure it out, but once I read your post, scenarios become clearer.
I agree with what you have said and think it is Michael as well. He has done well and it appears that he and Emma have had a great time.
My only fear is if it is Michael is that TeamItsyBitsy won’t win the team dance (given prior history of the show) and I want Derek to keep up his winning streak. Not that it matters to him, but I still want him to win, so hoping it is Antonio.
I think this will be a good week to gauge how much NASCAR fans vote. If they save Michael this week and Antonio goes home, then (a) Cheryl’s fans didn’t pull in enough votes because of her dad, and (b) the same conservative fans who voted for Bill Engvall and Candace Cameron Bure now are split between Michael and Sadie. (That, I think, is how we lost Charlie White; they kept voting for Meryl and Maks and forgot about Charlie and Sharna.) And of course, Sadie’s a far better dancer.
I love Derek. I don’t care what I’m called or any accusations of biased. So? I am. I love him and Julianne! DWTS is my tv highlight of the week. Mark is awesome too. Great choreographers. Tony is a manly man and can make anyone look good and Val…he’s fine! A beautiful, built, foreign guy who is perfect ( to me) until he talks. Give me white bread Utah! I love Derek! It’s fun. Lighten up. I wish I hd legs of Sadie, dimples too. I don’t watch or like Duck Dynasty.
I love these posts and was so looking forward to this one. Thanks so much Heidi. I can’t decide between Alfonso, Tommy, and Michael. I think it should be Michael…but, I love them too and his fan base is huge. Like you, I kind of think Alfonso is getting lost as well. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was him to leave even though I really loved his dance last week. I love what you wrote on Janel…what I’d give to see her be a surprise elimination.
From what I have read Pretty Little Liars is really supporting Janel this week sonthat might pull more voters in for her. At this point, I really want her off my tv screen but I wonder if that support might get her fans to vote. Although it is her fan base anyway so who knows. As long as Sadie is safe. Loving Mark this season. Great post PH as usual.
I agree Cidra, it’s always a great read when PH gets her wheels really turning, the more complicated the better.
I wouldn’t be surprised if all 3 of those bottom men are getting enough votes. Since we’re heading into week 7 if there’s going to be a really shocking elimination it has to happen soon. I wonder if Janel being last to be saved rallied some fans who split votes and Lea will be the one to go.
Lea going would be in some ways a great shame given how beautifully she can at times dance. I had such high hopes for this pair given her elegance/ballet training (I know it was a very long time ago but she still carries herself a certain way) and given that he came with a good amount of experience on strictly. But I’ve been fairly disappointed in his partnering of her, he has an awful lot to work with so my expectations are very high. Sure, she’s like any of the middle aged women who feel insecure about their aging bodies/abilities…so what, just nurture her.
This is a pretty hard week to predict and I can honestly see anyone from Lea, Janel, Tommy, Michael, or Antonio being eliminated. I’m HOPING Tommy and Lea got the votes to stay but Lea’s fan base makes me nervous as I don’t know how massive they are. There is a small part of me that thinks she could be a “surprise” elimination Monday.
I really don’t know what to make of Antonio though. He hasn’t been in jeopardy in a while and I can’t decide if that means anything or not. I just find it hard to see who is voting for him. I know the Cheryl fan base is but who else? Maybe he has more fans than I realize and the older female audience is eating up his beef-cake looks (did I really just say beef-cake?). If Janel makes it through Monday (and I think she will) I have a feeling she’ll make it to the semis. They are going major hard with the PLL theme and cross promotion so that could give her a boost for the next few weeks.
If I had to pick someone to be eliminated I think I’m going to go with Antonio but I’m not even sold on that. This is a very difficult week to call.
Thanks, so much PH. I love when you have “to logic it out for myself”. It really helps me to understand it when you do it like that on paper (so to speak!).
I wonder about Antonio getting lost in the shuffle also. Vogue, did you mean Antonio and not Alfonso? 🙂 I’d like to see either Michael or Antonio go this week. Well, I’d really like to see Janel go but I don’t think her times up yet.
Good catch Meggie! I think you right.
Darn names are too close, Sandy!
I’m thinking it’s Michael leaving this week, but would love it to be Janel. Yes, she’s a better dancer than Michael, after all, she has the experience, but Michael is so much more likable, and for that reason, I would rather he stay one more week over her.
as always, a very thoughtful post. Your real talent, PH, is not coming up with these numbers (although that’s a mega feat) but in explaining it in such an insightful way that even I understand it.
Can’t disagree with anyone here about Michael’s expiration date – Bill was definitely more charming AND a better dancer, but I’m on the let-antonio-go bus this week. He dances a little better than both Tommy and Michael, but he’s got no personality! Here we are headed into week 7 and I know NOTHING about him, other than he was/is on a soap opera and I can’t even remember which one. As for a surprise elimination – that would be Lea IMO
Just wondering if this is the week that Antonio might have been put in jeopardy but the show decided against it due to that being too cruel given Cheryl’s Dad’s health concerns?
You’re assuming that jeopardy is always completely meaningless, Yvonne. We know that’s not true.
PLL is not a big show. It’s not Scandal – it’s not even on a major network. Plus, it’s demo skews young. Not sure why that one thing would give Janel a boost. Her boost is that there are far worse dancers than her and we’ll probably see more 5s in an effort to get rid of them.
I’m also worried about Lea. This post makes me feel a little better, but I still think she could possibly be the one eliminated. The combination of the comments from the judges, the scores she received (not undeserved, but still underwhelming) and the negative tone of the practice footage, just gave me the feeling that she is in trouble.
She is my favorite, and I would love to see her make the final four, but I just can’t see that happening. I think she can possibly get past Antonio, but not Michael’s NASCAR fanbase. I have no idea what is going on with Tommy, but after Lea goes home I will definitely be voting for him!
Why do people assume that “conservative” voters always stick together when it comes to DWTS? I am about as far from conservative as they come and let me tell you, if Bethany gets eliminated all my votes to go Sadie. That should tell you something about Sadie. I don’t believe that either Bill or Candace was all about “conservative” voters – I think that’s the height of arrogance of the conservatives. 🙂 Candace was part of an iconic TV show whose audience crosses perfectly with the DWTS demo. Bill Engvall was Bill Engvall. Quit trying to pigeonhole voters as “conservative” – as I’ve been saying for years, it’s the general viewing audience that gets you through.
As for Nascar fans “saving Michael” and that being an indication of if they’re voting – not really. Michael does have two more points than both Antonio and Tommy, so it’s an indication of Antonio not covering the spread – either because he’s NOT getting the votes or Michael IS. Still hard to tell.
I’m leaning towards Michael,he really can’t dance but I’m wishing it’s Vajanel as I am so tired of this duo. She is such a tryhard and I am sick of his shirtlessness. I do believe he will dance with just a hat on his you know what if he could get the MBT.
“Prior History of the show” involved the teams dancing one night and getting eliminated the next night based on the previous night’s score, including the team dance, Carrie. For many seasons it was that way. Only recently has the team danced when TPTB already know who’s going home. It’s apples and oranges – can’t compare the two scenarios. How well someone does in the team dance has NOTHING to do with whether they are eliminated or not. Team dance win or loss is basically a superstition now.
Unless of course you think that the judges know the results and purposely give the team losing a member a point lower. If that’s the case, there’s no point in worrying about it. Based on how the judges have been behaving the past two seasons, I think it’s just as likely that they score high the person going home so that they leave on a high note. I’m starting to think the judges are guessing just like we are – hence Michael’s 30, along with Jonathan’s 32.
Don’t get me wrong, Finley, I worry about Lea too. I think she is VERY tied to her score, unlike Alfonso, Sadie and Bethany. By that I mean that one really bad one could mean the end of her. I think that Alfonso, Sadie and Bethany can still survive a bad score – not sure at ALL that either Lea or Janel can.
#6 The Abby Lee Miller backlash helped Meryl get all of Charlie’s votes the week he got eliminated even though he got the perfect score for his quickstep. They assumed he was going to be safe. I can see Janel sticking around because the people who are buying into whatever showmance they are selling, may have voted more for her this week because of her lower scores. I think Michael might be going home this week.
Kate(1) I don’t think anyone is buying into the Janel-Val showmance. In fact I think the more they are pushing it the more voters they are alienating. Even hardcore C-Fam fans say on different media say that they Love Val but just don’t feel this partnership. So I fully expect her to go not this but as early as next week.
I really want to be wrong in my worries for Lea. That’s why I loved this numbers post. Hope! I’m beginning to think she could maybe get past Janel. The showmance storyline has alienated a portion of their separate fanbases. They never should have gone that route while she was in a relationship. And now that she isn’t the whole thing has gotten so painfully awkward that I am half wondering if it isn’t actually covering up something real-ish. Don’t really care one way or the other about the show/faux/ro-mance, but if it helps Lea stay longer then have at it!
I don’t think that Cheryl’s situation this week will necessarily help Antonio. It left me almost thinking that it would be better for Cheryl if he was eliminated. I think that it will be between Antonio and Janel this week. I don’t think Janel’s fan base is even close to Michael’s.
PH, you’ve talked in the past about how some viewers only vote during the finals. Do you have any idea or guesses as to the percentage of increased final only voting? Also curious if the demographic of the final only voters is the same as the general demo for the show as a whole.
I would bet that’s different from season to season Susan (re: the demo). And I’m only guessing when I say that the increase in voting probably is similar to the percentage increase in viewers.
26. annie, I was referring to this week. There are a few delusional ones out there who think Val making it to the finals may mean Maksyl will show up to it. Personally, I don’t think Janel will make it to the finals but there are a couple others who could get eliminated before her.
Wow, well I was all but certain Antonio would be headed home (maybe I’m vastly underestimating these soap fans) until I read this post. Still think it will be him, but there’s a lot of good points here. I agree that people tend to overestimate the power of the celebs’ individual fanbases. That might keep you around a few weeks but not win it all for you if you’re not getting votes from the general DWTS watcher. I tend to think that of the 5 up for consideration, so to speak, that Tommy, Michael, and maybe Lea are getting the most votes from those people. So if it’s not Antonio, maybe it would be Janel. I guess it depends on how well PLL fans are voting and how many Val fans are annoyed with Janelskiy. I know a lot of them aren’t loving this partnership but not sure they’re fed up enough to turn on their fave pro.
Ugh @ the possibility of Mikey leaving and Antonio still floating around. Antonio is indeed the better dancer but I’m just feeling Mikey more. Emma needs to get really good partner next season though, I mean Peta could get Donald, Sharna got Charlie, Witney got Alfonso, why couldn’t Emma?
I’m hoping for Antonio to leave, or Janel, if that’s possible. Tommy could very well be eliminated too, right, even if he had never been in jeopardy even once? I think I remember that Liz Berkley was never in jeopardy and then boom, she got eliminated (but CMIIW of course).
Tommy and Peta haven’t been part of the last two yet, but they were in jeopardy in week 4.
Thank you, PH, for the fantastic numbers post, again. It helps solidify in my mind where my favs stand, and prepare for possible elimination. Although he is not my fav, I do like Antonio. Of course, I’m one of the old ladies who remembers him on General Hospital. I find he has improved a lot since week 1, and would like to see what he can do with a couple more weeks. So my hope is that Michael leaves this week. I’m so pleasantly surprised with the support Tommy is receiving, and look forward to him doing a slower dance. i do fear he will have trouble this week due to having to learn two routines. I think the others can handle it, but Tommy may struggle to the point of, well, embarrassment. I’ll just hope he manages to get through it. My favs are Bethany/Derek and Alfonso/Whitney, and I’m confident (well, as much as one can be) they are going to the finals. Looking forward to Monday, as always.
For me, I think that for who’s going home on Monday night is going to be between Antonio, Tommy, & Michael w/ 100% Michael eliminated IMO
Emily #34
Oh yeah I forgot that one time. So it’s Beth and Alfonso that have never been in any jeopardy as of now. Hoping they will be the final two (or swap Beth with Sadie), but something tells me that Beth will ended up peaking in the semifinals and perhaps topping the leaderboard, and still get eliminated, Maria Menounos-style. Please not.
Vajanel is at it again this week continuing more of the showmance. Even though Michael seems like the one to go this week, I’d be all for a dual elimination if they sent Vajanel packing too.
I see on this site so much support for Alfonso, Sadie, & Bethany. I hope the general public is supporting them too. I can see Lea sticking around too. As for who is going home on Monday….I am not sure this week but I would love it to be Janel/Val.
@Carolyn – There are so many of us on this site that are of all ages, gender, likes and dislikes, with differing favorite pros, and not so favorite pros. But at the end of the day, I have found that more times than not most of our views DO tend to match the views of the general public. At least that’s my opinion.
So my thoughts are your views on Alfonso, Sadie, and Bethany, are probably spot on with the general public.
I think my problem with Antonio is that I don’t find him charming at all. I don’t mind if he’s not getting that much spotlight if he’s full of charm; he’s just not, and combine that with a truly mediocre dancer is a dead end in my book. At least Cheryl’s other Latin partners (aka the three that all went to the finals: Gilles, William and Cristian) are all quite charming, or at least someone like Maya who shows almost no personality but is still fun to watch because of her incredible dancing. Antonio has none of those, and for that I’m so ready to see him gone.
There’s no way Janel was close to going home. Her fanbase is really big, probably Top 3 or 4. Plus with the supposed bot 2 scare, it probably kicked the PLL army into high gear.
We’ll see, Kacey. I don’t think so. Her fanbase being top 3 or 4? Highly doubtful, although she could get to the top 4 on the power of the scores.
People didn’t believe me when I said that Elizabeth was going to go home early. They didn’t believe me when I said Danica wouldn’t make the finale. The list goes on and on – but you believe what you like. I could be wrong this time – but I wouldn’t bet on it.
I think it’ll likely be Michael who goes home this week but I could be wrong. Janelskiy could leave the competition ANY time now. I don’t think her fanbase beats that of Bethany/Derek, Sadie or even Alfonso. I’d even go as far to say that the Nascar fanbase is bigger than Janel’s right now.
sorry for my English, but I wanted to say this. Maybe and i’m wrong, but at the moment I’m very impressed (in a good way) for Bethany fanbase, seem like they’re voting harder for her and she didn’t even asked them for do it. So, I’m waiting and hoping that “if she make it to the top 5” she will do it, and that combined with the fan base derek, can give a strong fight in the finals. she has a fan base of very young people, and they can be really obsessive, but also very naive …. sometimes I see that they don’t know how to vote, but if she says it, I believe that the average of votes can greatly increase … for now I think that those who’re voting are derek fan base and a small part of her.Also I have noticed that of all the celebs she is the least encourages you to vote for her. And in addition to that, Derek does not do it . (That impresses me, but also scares me)
I’m not really sure about how much Bethany’s fanbase are voting for her. She’s commented in one of her video/interviews before that she wouldn’t pressure or ask her fans to vote for her, and that it was a choice that they could make. In saying that, her fans are very dedicated to her and she gets heaps of love on Instagram and Twitter.
By looking at the DWTS Facebook posts and DWTS discussion board, there seems to be a TONNE of support for Sadie. An unbelievable amount of posts are rooting for her, I’d say even more than Alfonso.
I’m amazed at how you come up with this stuff!! My brain just can’t process all this information and I’m an accountant!! Interesting…
The person going home tonight is either Antonio or Michael (most likely Michael).