DWTS Season 19, Week 7: Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, it’s really interesting how the team dances make an already screwed up leader board even MORE screwed up. In what universe is Sadie below both Lea and Janel?? Cray cray universe, that’s which one. I can’t figure out what they have against that girl – and why they are so high on Lea. They have Lea as 4 points higher than Sadie in her individual dance – it’s’ times like this when I think that perhaps giving your celeb very simple choreo is an advantage. I’m not sure it should be. Mark went with a production and harder choreo and wasn’t rewarded at all for challenging Sadie AND teaching her to dance. Was she a little wobbly in spots? Sure – but she also had harder choreo.

I dunno. Don’t get me wrong – I love Lea too, but these oddities make me scratch my head.  Because in the past, one of the requirements from the judges certainly seemed to be upping the challenge each week, if they were a good dancer. But, as usual, the rule that applies to some pros/celebs doesn’t apply to all.  I was ready to be super pissed at Len, for example, when he started talking about production to Derek on a HALLOWEEN themed episode – but instead of giving Derek his usual 7, he gave him a 9. Shocker. But then we found out that Len was saving his true ire for Mark and Sadie. Granted, they had MORE production and the dance wasn’t quite as strong – but NINE points difference?? Lord have mercy, whose cheerios did Mark pee in? (Note to Mark fans: you should focus your silly hate on the people actually handing out scores…and here’s an idea, instead of trying to pull Beth’s score DOWN, you should be bitching to get Sadie’s score UP. Always, the focus on Derek when he had nothing to do with it. Stupid.).

As we have often speculated in the past, the one reason to low ball someone is for the storyline. Often a storyline that includes the lowballed celeb getting a shit ton of votes. This way, when they are safe…or even end up WINNING…everyone will be shocked. The audience will look at each other in wonder and say, “but she got low scores all the way up to week __ – that’s amazing she won!!” Because, folks, not everyone is really paying attention and some of the audience ain’t actually too bright (see: shippers).  Where this becomes a problem is the other side of the stupid audience coin – sometimes constant lowballing leads the sheeple…I mean, audience to believe that that person is not as good a dancer as they actually are. There are people out there who actually believe the judges know what they’re talking about (gasp), when in reality, there is more that goes into their scores than actual dancing a lot of the time.

Anyway, enough ranting for one post. Let’s take a look at the leader board.

Table 1

You’ll note that after all is said and done, Beth is in first place, followed by Lea and Alfonso. Mike and Tommy are floating around the bottom.  Mike, in any other week, would go bye bye, but the dude was on the right team for the team dance. Will that save him?  Let’s see.

Table 2

I don’t see a good path forward for Mike this week. He has a long way to go to be able to be safe yet again.  He doesn’t have to do a lot to get past Tommy, but Tommy is Tommy. It’s basically Nascar against the general audience who loves Tommy. And who doesn’t love Tommy?

Can Mike get 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Tommy to be safe? I have my doubts. But here’s the problem. If we’ve misjudged Sadie’s popularity relative to Tommy and Michael (and the constant lowballing has worn the audience down) then she could be in real trouble this week. Mike needs 11.7k more votes per million votes cast in order to beat her. This sounds like a lot, but trust me, popular contestants have beaten far worse odds.

My gut says that Mike’s not getting those kind of votes. Anyway, he needs 7,800 to get past Tommy and 11.7k to get past Sadie. Let’s say Mike does have that kind of power and he gets past Tommy and Sadie. Tommy then only needs 3,900 more votes per million votes cast to also get past Sadie.

Table 3

See why I think Sadie might be in trouble? These are small numbers! What does Sadie have to do?

Table 4

To figure out how we think Sadie will do, the easiest thing is to back into it. For Sadie to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Mike would have to get 11.7k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Tommy would have to get 3,900 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Sadie does NOT get 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Sadie does NOT get 11,650 more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso, AND;
  • Sadie does NOT get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Lea, AND;
  • Sadie does NOT get 25,200 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany.

Tommy might get the 3,900 votes, but I bet Sadie is easily beating Janel and she might even be beating Lea. Does Mike get the 11.7k votes? I don’t think so. So, I think Sadie is safe thanks to Michael, Janel and Lea. Remember, she only has to beat one of them. I think she’s okay.

But what about Lea and Janel, two other ladies we’ve wondered about recently?  To figure out if Lea and Janel are safe, again, we’ll back our way into it.

Table 5

For Janel to be ELIMINATED, ALL of the following things would have to happen:

  • Michael would have to get 21.3k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Tommy would have to get 13.6k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Sadie would have to get 9.7k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Janel is NOT getting 2,000 more votes per million votes cast to beat Alfonso, AND;
  • Janel is NOT getting 5,801 more votes per million votes cast to beat Lea, AND;
  • Janel is NOT getting 15.6k more votes per million votes cast to beat Beth.

If all of those things happen, Janel goes home. I tend to doubt that Michael or Tommy are getting the votes that would send Janel packing. But I do think that Sadie is getting the votes to beat Janel and that Janel is not beating Alfonso, Lea or Beth. If she is clearing any of those margins, it would be Lea’s.  All that said, keep in mind that it’s not only about Michael and Tommy getting a lot of votes, it’s also about if Janel is getting votes.  Is it possible the two men are beating her? Sure. Just not sure if this is the week we get the shocking elimination or not. Let’s keep going, for now.

As for Lea…For Lea to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Michael would have to get 27.1k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Tommy would have to get 19.4k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Sadie would have to get 15.5k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Janel would have to get 5,810 more vote per million votes cast, AND;
  • Alfonso would have to get 3,900 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Lea is NOT getting 9.7k more votes per million votes cast to beat Beth.

Well, I don’t think Lea is beating Beth in votes, and I think Alfonso gets the votes to pass her easily. Frankly, I think Sadie is likely getting those votes as well. I don’t think that Janel is beating Lea, but I could be wrong.

What all this discussion brings me to is my feeling that Bethany, Alfonso and Sadie are safe, by virtue of their abilities to beat Janel and Lea and, in the case of Beth and Alfonso at least, avoid being overtaken by Michael and Tommy. So, that leaves me with Lea, Janel, Michael and Tommy.

Now, I think we’re going to have a “shocking” elimination of either Janel or Lea, the only question is – will it be this week or next? For it to be really shocking it would have to be this week. Actually, since I’m the one talking about it, it won’t be shocking to me at all. The truly shocking elimination would be Beth, Sadie or Alfonso.

I have a hard time believing that Michael is getting the 27k votes to pass Lea, but I think it very possible that Tommy and Sadie are. But you only need one, so I think Lea could be safe.

Janel? Michael needs more than 21k votes to beat her. Hmmmm. I’ve already said that I think Tommy might be getting the votes. What that means is that I think it comes down to Janel and Michael. I kinda think that Michael isn’t going to make it.

Okay…

Scenario Number 1 (most likely): Michael goes home

Scenario Number 2 (Not quite as likely): Janel goes home

Scenario Number 3 (least likely of the three): Michael and Tommy are called safe right off the bat and the last two standing are Janel and Lea. At that point, not sure which lady would be out the door. If it’s Sadie and either Janel or Lea? Sadie is safe.

So, I think Scenario #1 is most likely to happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of the other two scenarios. As I said, I think we’re going to have a “shocking” elimination – just not sure if it’s this week or next.