DWTS Season 19, Week 7: Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, it’s really interesting how the team dances make an already screwed up leader board even MORE screwed up. In what universe is Sadie below both Lea and Janel?? Cray cray universe, that’s which one. I can’t figure out what they have against that girl – and why they are so high on Lea. They have Lea as 4 points higher than Sadie in her individual dance – it’s’ times like this when I think that perhaps giving your celeb very simple choreo is an advantage. I’m not sure it should be. Mark went with a production and harder choreo and wasn’t rewarded at all for challenging Sadie AND teaching her to dance. Was she a little wobbly in spots? Sure – but she also had harder choreo.
I dunno. Don’t get me wrong – I love Lea too, but these oddities make me scratch my head. Because in the past, one of the requirements from the judges certainly seemed to be upping the challenge each week, if they were a good dancer. But, as usual, the rule that applies to some pros/celebs doesn’t apply to all. I was ready to be super pissed at Len, for example, when he started talking about production to Derek on a HALLOWEEN themed episode – but instead of giving Derek his usual 7, he gave him a 9. Shocker. But then we found out that Len was saving his true ire for Mark and Sadie. Granted, they had MORE production and the dance wasn’t quite as strong – but NINE points difference?? Lord have mercy, whose cheerios did Mark pee in? (Note to Mark fans: you should focus your silly hate on the people actually handing out scores…and here’s an idea, instead of trying to pull Beth’s score DOWN, you should be bitching to get Sadie’s score UP. Always, the focus on Derek when he had nothing to do with it. Stupid.).
As we have often speculated in the past, the one reason to low ball someone is for the storyline. Often a storyline that includes the lowballed celeb getting a shit ton of votes. This way, when they are safe…or even end up WINNING…everyone will be shocked. The audience will look at each other in wonder and say, “but she got low scores all the way up to week __ – that’s amazing she won!!” Because, folks, not everyone is really paying attention and some of the audience ain’t actually too bright (see: shippers). Where this becomes a problem is the other side of the stupid audience coin – sometimes constant lowballing leads the sheeple…I mean, audience to believe that that person is not as good a dancer as they actually are. There are people out there who actually believe the judges know what they’re talking about (gasp), when in reality, there is more that goes into their scores than actual dancing a lot of the time.
Anyway, enough ranting for one post. Let’s take a look at the leader board.
You’ll note that after all is said and done, Beth is in first place, followed by Lea and Alfonso. Mike and Tommy are floating around the bottom. Mike, in any other week, would go bye bye, but the dude was on the right team for the team dance. Will that save him? Let’s see.
I don’t see a good path forward for Mike this week. He has a long way to go to be able to be safe yet again. He doesn’t have to do a lot to get past Tommy, but Tommy is Tommy. It’s basically Nascar against the general audience who loves Tommy. And who doesn’t love Tommy?
Can Mike get 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Tommy to be safe? I have my doubts. But here’s the problem. If we’ve misjudged Sadie’s popularity relative to Tommy and Michael (and the constant lowballing has worn the audience down) then she could be in real trouble this week. Mike needs 11.7k more votes per million votes cast in order to beat her. This sounds like a lot, but trust me, popular contestants have beaten far worse odds.
My gut says that Mike’s not getting those kind of votes. Anyway, he needs 7,800 to get past Tommy and 11.7k to get past Sadie. Let’s say Mike does have that kind of power and he gets past Tommy and Sadie. Tommy then only needs 3,900 more votes per million votes cast to also get past Sadie.
See why I think Sadie might be in trouble? These are small numbers! What does Sadie have to do?
To figure out how we think Sadie will do, the easiest thing is to back into it. For Sadie to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:
- Mike would have to get 11.7k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Tommy would have to get 3,900 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Sadie does NOT get 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
- Sadie does NOT get 11,650 more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso, AND;
- Sadie does NOT get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Lea, AND;
- Sadie does NOT get 25,200 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany.
Tommy might get the 3,900 votes, but I bet Sadie is easily beating Janel and she might even be beating Lea. Does Mike get the 11.7k votes? I don’t think so. So, I think Sadie is safe thanks to Michael, Janel and Lea. Remember, she only has to beat one of them. I think she’s okay.
But what about Lea and Janel, two other ladies we’ve wondered about recently? To figure out if Lea and Janel are safe, again, we’ll back our way into it.
For Janel to be ELIMINATED, ALL of the following things would have to happen:
- Michael would have to get 21.3k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Tommy would have to get 13.6k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Sadie would have to get 9.7k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Janel is NOT getting 2,000 more votes per million votes cast to beat Alfonso, AND;
- Janel is NOT getting 5,801 more votes per million votes cast to beat Lea, AND;
- Janel is NOT getting 15.6k more votes per million votes cast to beat Beth.
If all of those things happen, Janel goes home. I tend to doubt that Michael or Tommy are getting the votes that would send Janel packing. But I do think that Sadie is getting the votes to beat Janel and that Janel is not beating Alfonso, Lea or Beth. If she is clearing any of those margins, it would be Lea’s. All that said, keep in mind that it’s not only about Michael and Tommy getting a lot of votes, it’s also about if Janel is getting votes. Is it possible the two men are beating her? Sure. Just not sure if this is the week we get the shocking elimination or not. Let’s keep going, for now.
As for Lea…For Lea to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:
- Michael would have to get 27.1k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Tommy would have to get 19.4k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Sadie would have to get 15.5k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Janel would have to get 5,810 more vote per million votes cast, AND;
- Alfonso would have to get 3,900 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Lea is NOT getting 9.7k more votes per million votes cast to beat Beth.
Well, I don’t think Lea is beating Beth in votes, and I think Alfonso gets the votes to pass her easily. Frankly, I think Sadie is likely getting those votes as well. I don’t think that Janel is beating Lea, but I could be wrong.
What all this discussion brings me to is my feeling that Bethany, Alfonso and Sadie are safe, by virtue of their abilities to beat Janel and Lea and, in the case of Beth and Alfonso at least, avoid being overtaken by Michael and Tommy. So, that leaves me with Lea, Janel, Michael and Tommy.
Now, I think we’re going to have a “shocking” elimination of either Janel or Lea, the only question is – will it be this week or next? For it to be really shocking it would have to be this week. Actually, since I’m the one talking about it, it won’t be shocking to me at all. The truly shocking elimination would be Beth, Sadie or Alfonso.
I have a hard time believing that Michael is getting the 27k votes to pass Lea, but I think it very possible that Tommy and Sadie are. But you only need one, so I think Lea could be safe.
Janel? Michael needs more than 21k votes to beat her. Hmmmm. I’ve already said that I think Tommy might be getting the votes. What that means is that I think it comes down to Janel and Michael. I kinda think that Michael isn’t going to make it.
Okay…
Scenario Number 1 (most likely): Michael goes home
Scenario Number 2 (Not quite as likely): Janel goes home
Scenario Number 3 (least likely of the three): Michael and Tommy are called safe right off the bat and the last two standing are Janel and Lea. At that point, not sure which lady would be out the door. If it’s Sadie and either Janel or Lea? Sadie is safe.
So, I think Scenario #1 is most likely to happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of the other two scenarios. As I said, I think we’re going to have a “shocking” elimination – just not sure if it’s this week or next.
Oh man, reading through in the middle I was getting really nervous for Sadie! (The judges low balling her just makes me give her all my votes!) I hope your first prediction is correct. I think it’s time for Michael to go, he’s struggling the most and I felt so bad for Emma last week.
I think the only shocking elimination I would be okay with is if Janel gets sent home over the guys.
I like your analysis but my brain’s spinning again. All I have to say is – and I know it’s mean but – send Mr NASCAR home PLEASE!!
I wonder if it could be Janel. They might turn it around with their no showmance approach but it might be too late for a change in voting. I found it interesting how almost no one mentioned any of their dances as memorable in the questionaire posted earlier. Also, no one had her as a dark horse, the heart of the season or winning. It isn’t scientific but a good sample of DWTS fans I think. Once again, this analysis was super informative! Thanks.
Love the rant, Princess Heidi! Love this post, too, even if it’s making me a bit nervous for Sadie. I believe that she is getting a ton of votes compared to Lea and Janel. I expect her to be in the finals and even see her in the final two. I hope she makes a comeback next week. Mark has been doing a great job teaching and choreographing for her.
I go with scenario #1. I do like Michael and love his partnership with Emma, but even with the high score from the team dance, he is still at the bottom of the leader board. Tommy is such a darling and getting a lot of love. But with the dance off on Monday, would the scenarios change? Ahh! Don’t want to confuse myself further with that crazy gimmick!
Heidi, WORD again. I loved what you wrote on Mark and Sadie!! It’s beyond my understanding too why they won’t give them props and instead love Lea. Crazy as Mark’s choreo is off the hook this season and Sadie is a way better dancer.
Like you, I think Michael is finally going home, but, I bet you are right how we will see a surprise elimination either this week or the next and I hope it’s Janel.
I know there’s a lot of hate for Janel but I so much want her to outlast Michael. There are so many people that should have outlasted him. Personality & likability has always played a part in the competition, but by week 8 it needs to be more about the dancing, which he doesn’t have no matter how hard he tries.
My guess is if there’s a surprise elimination it will be next week rather than this week. Though if everyone is guessing Janel as the surprise elimination is it much of a surprise? lol
I so hope the surprise elimination isn’t Sadie. After last year with Charlie, I’m nervous for her. I know different year, different circumstances but still the judges are going after her the same way they did Charlie. It just worries me!!!!
well, I really think it doesn’t help Janel that her and Val was given Romeo and Juilett contemporary. I mean, who didn’t expect that? it seems like people are really pissed of about their showmance and last week their duo was just about dancing, which was a pleasant change, but next week it will be just about their fake romance even if they didn’t want to, because of the theme. so, I think Janel could be in trouble, although I still think Michael won’t beat her.
Another great numbers post!
The team dances really did make it interesting this week. Part of me was worried for Sadie initially but I just have this feeling she’s getting A LOT of votes, more than Lea or Janel, and I really do think the final two will be Alfonso and Sadie. So even though this week will be nerve wracking for her (and I guarantee she’ll be put in jeopardy) I think she’ll be safe.
As strong as the NASCAR fans might be I just don’t think they’ll be able to overcome the defect this week. Granted, he’s not THAT far off from Tommy and people have overcome much greater gaps to stick around but I just don’t see Tommy leaving just yet. I could be wrong though. I was worried about Lea going into this elimination as I think she’s been slipping some the last few weeks and I question the size of her fan base but she has a pretty good margin.
I do think we are due for a surprise elimination but don’t think it will be until the following week. So I’ll go with Mike being eliminated. My second guess? I suppose Tommy but I’m not really sold on that. If neither of them are going home I do think your 3rd scenario is accurate in that they’ll call them safe immediately and then put three of the top performers in jeopardy to further the drama of the surprise elimination.
When we say surprise elimination, Ammie, that’s why we usually put it in quotes as “surprise” – meaning they would consider that the audience is surprised and TPTB might be surprised…but we’re not actually usually surprised. Most of the big “shocking” (same reason for quotes) eliminations are ones that we predicted well in advance on this site.
Is there anyway that Beth could be the surprise elimination?
Excellent work, wow is it confusing.
I’m wondering if there will be a surprise double elimination next since they are approaching week 8 and they never go into week 9 with 6 contestants.
This will be an interesting week for sure.
I can’t even imagine Sadie going home. I subscribe to theory that the judges are lowballing her scores in order to create a (potential) winner’s narrative. “Look how far she’s come!” “Look how much she has grown and evolved as a dancer!” The reality is – she’s always been amazing from day one! So has Alfonzo for that matter.
My theory on Lea’s scores is this – the judges know she is trying, they know she is working hard, she doesn’t suck, (so the scores aren’t completely unwarranted) and she needs the help in order to stay around for an extra week or so. They aren’t trying to give her the win, just make it possible for her to stay in for however long she can. Which, if she doesn’t go home next, is still only 5th or 4th place at best. And that’s ok.
My Janel theory – I wonder if ABC has some kind of project lined up for her? The way they are promoting her is just odd. The relentless ‘showmance’ that no-one is really buying and yet it will not die! Out of the blue coming up with burlesque as a dance style for her and Artem. I’m not getting a ‘mirror-ball winning’ feeling from her ‘story’. It’s like they are trying to manufacture a certain image and project that.
Which I’m sure she is fine with. Given the choice of a mirror-ball or a role in another tv series, I know what I’d choose.
I hope Michael goes home this week. I also love how Tommy going home is barely even considered as an option! Love that guy!
I think Sadie has definitely been getting the votes – but like others have stated, people are also stupid and take the judges at face value. See: Charlie, Ralph, and Apolo/Karina.
So they better not play their game for much longer, or she’s going to get hosed. That being said, I do think she’s endeared herself to a lot of people, and I think she and Mark have a good enough partnership and memorable routines to garner votes.
I just wish they didn’t dick around with people for the storyline.
Apolo/Karina were my favorite that season. I hated they went home when they did. Same with Charlie, he deserved to stay. What happened with Ralph (giving out 15 ‘because we like you’ points to Chelsea) pissed me off so much I didn’t watch the final episodes of that season. (Still haven’t seen any of those freestyle dances on Youtube.) I didn’t even go online to read the discussions about the finale and the winner. I was just done.
This was a long drawn out way of saying, I hate it too!
For some reason I get a different feeling with Sadie. I was always worried about Apolo and Ralph, but I see her fans voting for her no matter what the scores and comments are.
There may very well be some kind of agenda by TPTB for Sadie not to ‘outshine’ Alfonzo at this point in the competition. And that could end up backfiring on him. Personally, I would happy to see either of them (or Bethany) win. This is going to be an interesting outcome to the season!
Yeah it’s kind of funny that those three were my favorites in their seasons, too. But I can’t complain too much because I don’t vote. Still, those were probably the only three eliminations that ever upset me.
I do agree that Sadie does seem to have a LOT of general support though so it’s not quite the same, so I’m not as worried about her – yet. But play with fire long enough – well you know how it goes.
In order for it to be shocking elimination it would have to be Janel because everybody expects Michael to leave.
Is the person who scores highest this week immune from elimination THIS week or the NEXT week? Perhaps making some couple immune will prevent a shocking elimination.
I tend to doubt it, Carrie. It’s certainly possible, but I think she’s doing better than both Janel and Lea, so I don’t consider it likely. Just look at the numbers everyone else would have to get for her to be eliminated.
The judges are being harsh on Sadie. At this point, if Janel went it wouldn’t really surprise me one bit LOL. I think Alfonso, Sadie and Bethany are sitting pretty good. Lea gets a little lost for me at times. I don’t know, it is her depressing rehearsal packages that annoy me and then I can’t focus on her dancing. Tommy is still entertaining and still ahead of Michael. This week should be interesting. Antonio was a bit of a surprise since I would have expected it to be Michael. But Antonio also had a bit of an attitude which doesn’t seem to go well with the producers. We saw what happened with Sean Avery last season.
Wow!! PHeidi….Nice Job! Thank you for sharing and for all the time you put into this analysis. Only TPTB know the amount of viewers votes each of the couples are getting, and that’s what makes the SUSPENSE along with the DRAMA for this show. I am amazed at how this site can predict so close every season. Some of you have really fantastic minds and memories. Seriously.
I actually prefer Michael and Emma to a couple of the others, but it appears his scores may be nearly impossible to overcome. It tells me that Michael’s getting a lot of votes if handing out 5s at this point in the competition is what it takes. I’m in awe of the way Emma and he view this experience and thanks to Emma it changed the way I have looked at this season.
Bethany, Sadie and Alfonso would be the only shocking eliminations in my opinion. I dont think they’re going anywhere. I do think they will fight it out at the end.
The judges seem to have issues with young women, particularly in the last few seasons. Zendaya didn’t get it too hard, but other people have.
I think Sadie is still well and truly safe. She has the love of heaps of the general audience. Right on though! Haters should be trying to pull Sadies score up without trying to pull Beth’s down. Anyway, with immunity next week on the line, I’m guessing either Michael or Tommy will be the one to go.
As much as I love Tommy and Peta I’d rather see them go over Michael and Emma. Not because I think Mike’s a better dancer, but god damn I’m so afraid for Tommy’s overall health, 3 dances at his age??? I’m surprised he pulled off both dances last week with just the knee issue, having the Paso as one of his dances this week is not in his favor, so I hope he goes home for his own good rather than stays another week. At least Michael, yeah he cannot dance, can keep up with the demanding workload.
Now if Sadie, for some disappointing reason is eliminated, I would imagine the judges table would need to be relocated in fear of retaliation from the audience. Hah, what a thought, but yes I would be alongside the audience in quite a stir from such an upset.
Now if Lea leaves I’d be truly shocked, Lea over Janel at this point would be madness! I feel like Lea is a more dynamic individual than Janel. Her packages and her on the live show have contained a lot of candid moments and that’s more relatable than Janel and Val’s showmance(??) or lack of.