DWTS Season 19, Week 8: Dancing by the Numbers!

So…

Where to start?

Yes, I do think that the scores were determined in advance by the judges because they wanted to keep Janel safe for another two weeks. Did they know it was necessary? Does it matter? I’m not sure the judges know, but at the end of the day, they underscored Sadie, in particular, relative to Janel. Janel’s dance was good, but if it was a dance worthy of a perfect score, so was Sadie’s and Alfonso’s – and Bethany’s for that matter.  But perhaps those three don’t need the help, eh?

By giving Janel 43 points last week, they’ve essentially sent her all the way to the semi-finals based on one less than perfect dance. Saved her for last week AND this coming week. This way, it is likely they get their preferred finale of Alfonso, Sadie, Bethany and Janel – sucks to be Lea and Tommy, barring someone not getting the votes we think they are. The semi-final scoring will tell the tale. If Janel suddenly isn’t all that great, it means she ain’t getting the vote (like we suspect) – after all, the judges want to be RIGHT. They want their preferred finale, but in the end they want their scores to be close to how the votes are going. Pride.

Anyway, I can’t even work up any righteous indignation about this anymore. It’s so predictable. Young actress works for ABC = Semi-final, whether she deserves it or not. And really, she is dancing better than Lea right now – I just don’t *LIKE* her. Not only do I get stealth mean girl vibe, but that gross showmance she had going on with Val was just annoying after a season centered on an over the top showmance.  Yuck.

But, on to the scores. Who’s got what and how much damage did the judges do this past week?

Week 8 Table 1

Ow. That hurts. I guess they were getting scared of Tommy and Michael, eh?  And only three points between Lea and Tommy? Yikes. The next person up the leader board is Sadie and she’s beating Lea by SIX points.

Anyway, of the contestants remaining, Tommy is at the bottom. What does he need to do to be safe?

Week 8 Table 2

As you can see, he only needs about 12,100 more votes per million votes cast than Lea in order to be safe. The question is – is he getting the votes? I tend to think he is. What would be more interesting is if he *isn’t* getting the votes and Lea stays in the competition. If she does – what will they do the following week when they can’t score Lea as badly as they do Tommy? Then this shit gets REAL. 🙂 But we get ahead of ourselves. I don’t think Tommy can beat anyone other than Lea, when you look at Table 2.  I would be really surprised if anyone other than Lea or Tommy goes home.

But let’s guess that Tommy does beat Lea. What does Lea have to do to be safe?

Week 8 Table 3

I seriously doubt that Lea beats her closest competitor, Sadie. She needs more than 24k votes per million votes cast to get there and I just don’t see that happening. And I don’t see her beating anyone else either. So, in my opinion, it comes down to her and Tommy.

I think it’s a really good thing for Janel that this week was set up this way, because I think Sadie, Alfonso and Bethany are beating her – and they well could be beating her this week, but she’s safe because I think it highly unlikely that either Lea or Tommy are getting the votes. Just so you can see what impact the scores had this week, here are the rest of the matchups:

Week 8 Table 4

Week 8 Table 5

As you can see, there aren’t huge numbers of votes between Bethany, Alfonso and Janel. And the number that Sadie needs to get past Janel isn’t huge either. Essentially, for Janel to be eliminated on Monday, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Tommy would have to get 56,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Lea would have to get 44,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Sadie would have to get 20,200 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Bethany would have to get 12,100 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Alfonso would have to get 8,100 more votes per million votes cast.

Now you can see more clearly why I think Janel is safe. While I think that Sadie, Bethany and Alfonso could easily be getting those votes, I think it is EXTREMELY unlikely that either Lea or Tommy are getting those numbers. VERY unlikely.

Since the numbers aren’t that much better between Tommy/Lea and Beth, Sadie and Alfonso, I think it has to come down to the two of them.  And this is actually a hard call. My gut says that Tommy is getting the votes. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he isn’t either.

So, my first guess is that Lea is going home. Second guess is Tommy. Distant third is Janel in an Audrina Patridge style “shocking” elimination (although that was shocking to no one reading this site). While I love Tommy, I would be most interested to see what happens if he goes home and Lea stays. Why? Well, it ain’t so easy to get into the finale if you’re going up against Lea instead of Tommy. Particularly if your name is Janel and you’re out of “special” dances and have to do actual ballroom – something I suspect Lea is going to excel at – if she ever gets a real chance at it. I would prefer Lea stay to at least make Janel’s walk into the finale not so smooth.