DWTS Season 20, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers
So sorry that this has been much delayed this week – I’m still trying to catch up from my whirlwind trip to New York City. If anyone cares, I saw Book of Mormon, New York Spring Spectacular (twice) and Wicked. All were tremendous. As I was telling someone on Twitter, Derek actually sings as much as he dances in this show and that was a real treat. Great voice on that boy. My favorite line from the very sacrilegious Book of Mormon?? “Jesus thinks you’re a dick.” OMG, I laughed and laughed and laughed.
Anyway, I highly recommend all three shows and it was nice to have a long break from the internets. 😉
There isn’t much to discuss this week, really – I don’t see how Charlotte can survive elimination. I will be surprised if it’s anyone else, really, although I suppose that Redfoo isn’t in line with the DWTS audience…but I think Charlotte is even LESS in line. I sure did like her though. Actually, I really liked everyone – I’ll love Rumer if she can keep up her current attitude (and prevent Val from talking). 🙂
I thought Nastia danced as well as Rumer – don’t really get the hype there, although I can guess their motivations. I think Riker, upon re-watching, was over scored when compared to the two women. He was pretty good, but his hands and arms were horribly distracting. Willow was underscored, I think. Robert is quite attractive – he’s got a gorgeous smile. Kym should go for it. I LOVED Patti – sure, she was somewhat lacking in content, but she’s an older lady. There’s something about her – I have to agree with the judges. She has an aura.
I was also very pleasantly surprised by Chris – he danced very well. We’ll see how he holds up when Witney only has a week to work on him. This coming Monday will be the true test. I think Michael has the potential to play spoiler – he had a very good dance, he has rhythm and Peta did a great job with him and gave him good choreo. I think Peta may be right up there with Witney and Kym as my favorite female professionals. I do think Michael was underscored relative to Chris and Noah – give the man another point or two. He really should be up with Robert. But, Len don’t like football players for some reason.
Anyway, where did we end up by the end of last Monday night??
This isn’t actually too terribly bad in terms of scores and spread. Yeah, there were lots of ties, but there ain’t nothing wrong with that. Good to see them handing out 5s…and no 9s. Do wish they would have called out Rumer on the lack of content – they would have if it had been Derek – but I will be hopeful for the future.
So, our low scorers are Charlotte and Redfoo. Honestly, if I could pick, I would pick Charlotte to stick around. Redfoo is just taking this all too seriously and Charlotte seems like a sweet girl. But, Redfoo only needs ONE more vote than Charlotte to stay over her. I think it likely that he gets that vote and that makes him safe. What does Charlotte need to stay, if Redfoo is definitely safe??
As you can see, Charlotte needs to get nearly 9.5k more votes per million votes cast than Suzanne, Willow or Patti. I think all three of those ladies have bigger fanbases that Charlotte does – and really, I don’t know which of them I would pick to go home instead of her. I think I would pick Redfoo to go home…but I don’t think that’s going to happen. I just don’t think Charlotte has the juice to get past the iconic Suzanne fanbase, the Hunger Games fanbase (yet) or the iconic Motown fanbase of Patti.
I also don’t think Charlotte has the juice to get past the next tier, consisting of Michael, Chris and Noah. She would need 12.6k more votes per million votes cast than one of them – Chris and Noah, definitely not. Michael? Nope. I don’t think so.
Just for fun, here’s what the next grouping looks like in terms of spread.
Anyway, I think it’s Charlotte going home. If by some miracle she has a much larger fanbase than I realize, then I think it’s Redfoo. I will be surprised by any other outcome. And if it is some other outcome, I will do a recap explaining it.
Excellent as always! Thanks so much. I’ve been looking so forward to this series to start up again and you make me laugh too. Loved the end of your first paragraph!! lol
Anyway, I’m with you…Charlotte is going home. I wasn’t impressed with Suzanne’s dancing….but, I love her and want to see more. She’s got a huge fan base which will save her. Same with Patti.
Yay, been waiting to read your take on this, thanks! I don’t have a problem with Charlotte staying but I personally am rooting more for RedFoo because I love Emma. It’s too bad anyone has to go home after only one dance.
As a side, I’m glad you had a great trip to NY. I’ve been so happy to read all the positive things about NYSS and how Derek is doing.
Great post Heidi! I’ve been wanting to see Book of Mormon for a while now so it sounded good from your quick mention there. 🙂
Anyway, I sadly think we’ll be losing Charlotte too, which is a shame. I think she came across really well too, and I’d like to keep her over Redfoo as well but can’t see it happening. Although it’s crazy to think that she was a virtual unknown when the show was airing last season… she’s only really been known for a couple months and she’s on one of the biggest shows in the country, so it’s a pretty good career boost nonetheless. 🙂
It should be Charlotte going home, but I feel bad for Keo. Two seasons in row he’s first out. I hope he’s back next season and the producers give him someone that he can go farther with.
I don’t mind RedFoo too much, and like @jess, I want him to stay because I love Emma. Emma, Witney and Kym are my favorite female pros, Derek and Mark favorite male pros.
Suzanne and Patti will have large fanbases, but they’ll be gone within a few weeks.
I too think Charlotte will be going home first, but if not her then it’ll be SUZANNE.
Redfoo is going nowhere, as he has a HUGE fanbase. He’ll stick around for a while.
Love Dancing With the Numbers! Also love your comment about Kym going for it! lol! I’m so glad she’s back this season too! I’m sure you’re right and it will be Charlotte going home this week and probably Redfoo next. I don’t dislike either one of them, but I won’t miss them either.
Thanks also on your review of shows. I’m planning a trip to NYC with friends, and we were just wondering about the Book of Mormon. (I’ve already seen Wicked!) Did you find any great places to eat???
Vogue, I wonder if Tony’s choreography had more to do with your indifference to Suzanne’s dance than the actual dancing? 🙂 Anyway, I agree with you.
I think Charlotte will go too, but will TPTB let Keo go home first again? I am thinking Suzanne. There was nothing in that routine I liked. Outfits- terrible. Song – more than terrible. Dancing (after 25 seconds of goofing around) – sub par. The only thing great were her thighs. I am in the targeted audience age group and love SS, but for me that was god-awlful.
Redfoo is hysterical and Emma is a fan fav, so he may be around a few more weeks.
In order for Suzanne to go this week, Charlotte and Redfoo BOTH would have to get nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than her. Say what you want about Suzanne and her routine, but I doubt very much that either of them have that kind of staying power. And, if TPTB really rig the eliminations (which I doubt), they would be much more inclined to keep Suzanne than Keo/Charlotte. Suzanne is an iconic TV personality.
And sorry, I love Emma, but she isn’t the draw that some of the male pros are.
Dancing is part of the equation, DWTSFan – Redfoo’s fanbase won’t be much help if he doesn’t dance better. And I would bet that the people in his fanbase who actually vote are no more numerous than most of the celebs on the show this season.
PH. This is why you are the number person! Great points all! SS, Redfoo, and Charlotte will be the first 3 to go do you think?
Greatest and thanks for all that work. Numbers make my head ache.
Book of Mormon is quite sacrilegious, Meggie – so be prepared for that if you go. But I loved it. 🙂 As for eating, I found a great Irish Pub on 49th a block (east, toward Radio City) off Broadway/Times Square. Not unusual, as there seem to be dozens of them. But when I went in there the place seems to be filled with locals (not tourists) and the bartender and guy sitting next to me both had Irish accents. I figured they all worked in the area. It had good beer and great potato skins. Unfortunately, I was not too focused on food and didn’t find anything else new or exciting. Just stuff to keep me going. I walked close to 6 miles each day, going by my fitbit. 🙂 I even copped out and went to Junior’s for breakfast. But they have great bloody mary’s and I had a killer omelette.
Yikes I meant great post….its early in California!
I think Charlotte almost definitely goes first, Jill. After that it gets very tricky. Everyone has to have good to great dances or they could find themselves in trouble. If Redfoo doesn’t pick up his game and relax a bit into his dancing, he could certainly be next. By the same token, if Tony improves the choreo for Suzanne, she could stick for a while to someone else’s detriment.
I think that this season it’s definitely a week by week thing. I think Rumer, Nastia, and Riker are around for a while, possibly Noah and Michael too. After that, it’s really hard to say. The scores count for HALF – you always have to remember that.
Thanks, PH! Will check it out!
Michael / Tommy with poor dancing outlasted Jonathan, Randy, Lea last season. So did Bill Engvall and Candace who made it all the way to the finals in their respective seasons.
Anything is possible …he’s like the entertainer of this season with a huge fanbase. So don’t be surprised if he makes it far.
But personally, i’d love to see more of Suzanne than Redfoo. SO i hope i’m wrong.
@PH, You know every season some celebs unexpectedly makes it far outlasting other better dancers with the help of fan votes? (eg, Tommy/Candace/Michael/Bill/Bristol etc). I think this season, it’ll be Redfoo.
Shame on Tony! He, especially should know that Week 1 is crucial, you have be memorable and surprising, and their routine was neither. They were lackluster and boring.
Charlotte will probably go home this week. I had initially thought I would be rooting for Keo and Emma. But my plans changed on opening night, (I love when that happens!)… Now I’m rooting for Michael.
I always look forward to getting your take on the numbers, Miss Heidi. By the way, I’m glad to hear that you had a great time in New York! I believe it will be Charlotte going home too. Although Redfoo seems to be a nice guy, he has become annoying for me to watch in rehearsals. He truly over-thinks things and too often tunes out, Emma, as though he is teaching himself. Emma really needs to crack the whip and get him more focused on her. I don’t think it comes as easy for her to get tough as it does for Peta, Sharna, or Kym. Anyway, he and Charlotte are not natural dancers, but I see more potential with Charlotte than Redfoo.
Low scores, small fan base, newbie pro, I’d put all my money on Charlotte being eliminated. I do think after that the slate is wiped clean for all but Nastia, Noah and Rumer though, and agree anything could happen.
Hoping for a killer rumba from Houghkin and great foxtrot from Sharkaroo, and I have faith that Sharna will work magic with Noah. There is no connection this season between any couple as strong as theirs IMO, although Robert and Kym have been a big and pleasant surprise for me. I like Suzanne too so I’m hoping for a costume design intervention for Tony. I’m having Martina flashbacks, not a good thing.
Sandy I am rooting for Michael too! And Noah.
I too was hoping that Keo/Charlotte would make it past week 1, but Keo didn’t do himself any favors with his antics. Even if it means he has to be the first one out again, I would rather see more of Emma/Redfoo than Keo/Charlotte.
The only possible saving grace that I see is that Charlotte and Keo’s package mentioned on several occasions that he was the first eliminated last season, so if the general viewers felt bad for him I could see a sympathy vote aspect helping them along, whereas Redfoo was surprisingly underwhelming and could have been forgotten when it came down to the votes. But of course that’s a difficult scenario to imagine because of all the tough factors against Charlotte, but I do imagine if despite the stacked odds against her that she’s not eliminated, that this aspect played a part to give them another week.
For me the best part of Redfoo was everyone wearing his glasses upstairs.
Just want to add a note about Miss Patti. I was so touched by how much the judges’ comments meant to her. Whatever happens, I’m so happy she had that moment.
@Suzy – Absolutely! Patti was deeply touched. It was beautiful to watch.
@Fig. – Maybe so. But in my opinion the whole boob package was a turnoff, and to me that trumped anything else.
Redfoo is NOT Tommy. Not even close. Neither is he Michael. I don’t see him in that category. I could be wrong.
If you expected any of those people to go in the first two or three weeks, you weren’t paying attention, DWTSFan. I saw NONE of them as early exits, especially not Candace or Tommy. Tommy’s first dance was so charming he was a lock for a few weeks and Candace was on an iconic TV show. No one should have been surprised by how long she stayed. Bristol? Not really a surprise. Bill and Michael were charming.
Problem is, there has to be someone that people like less than Redfoo. So, tell me, who would that be?? Like I said, I could be wrong certainly – but if he doesn’t get his scores up he’s in trouble.
PH, Sounds like you really enjoyed your whirlwind mini-break in NYC. 😀
Thanks for the numbers! It’ll be a major surprise if someone other than Charlotte and Keo get the chop on Monday. Like you, I’d rather keep Charlotte and lose Redfoo, but I just can’t imagine Redfoo and Emma wouldn’t manage the one extra vote they need to stay. I hope Charlotte and Keo have a decent rehearsal package and a solid performance so she can leave on a high note.
What do you think our chances are of getting the real bottom two?
Can’t wait for Monday! It’s always interesting to see who has what it takes to pick up a new dance in 5 days. I expect Patti and Chris to look worse, and Redfoo to look about the same. I sincerely hope Suzanne looks better. I’ve also got my fingers crossed that 5 days is enough for Noah.
I tend to think us getting a real bottom two depends on who the other person is. If it’s someone they want to stick around, then we’ll get a real bottom two. Especially if it’s someone controversial. I expect it to be redfoo, actually, but like I said, I could be wrong. Thing is, I don’t know who it could be if it’s NOT redfoo. I would call him least known to the average DWTS viewer and sans the charm of Michael, Bill or Tommy.
ETA: Forgot to add that I’m always surprised by how much better looking Derek is in person than he even is on TV. Wow. I mentioned this on twitter, but there were two little girls next to me at the stage door and BOTH broke into tears when he came out. It was sooo cute.
Thanks, PH.
Love the stage door story. It is surprising that Derek’s even better looking in person. Normally it’s the other way around, or so I’ve heard since I’ve never seen a TV/movie personality in person (just not my thing).
Don’t you think the heart-throb boys get tired of having the young (and sometimes not so young) girls break down in tears when they see them? I know I’d be embarrassed initially, and then put off.
Funny thing about that, Cidra. There are two areas, one on each side of the door, where security makes fans wait – behind these barricades. I was in the left one, observing the action. When he walked out the door and everyone screamed, he went to the right one. The two little girls started crying in happiness and then got worried he wouldn’t come their way. I reassured them he would. By the time he started our way, the tears dried up and they were very, very excited and chatty. It was quite fun to watch. 🙂 Me and this other woman were kinda standing back, making sure he got the kids, and we both kinda looked at each other and she said, “You remember being that age, when it was all so important?” Meaning age 8 to 14. I was like, yes and I don’t ever want to go back. 🙂
Good to know that you enjoyed Derek’s show, PH – I’m in the process of booking my daughter’s birthday gift trip to NYC, and it’s quite fortunate that Derek has a show there. 🙂
I just saw Book of Mormon here in Chicago last week, and despite all the hype, it was even better than I expected. I love all things Trey Parker, and it didn’t disappoint. I’ve already seen Wicked, but it’s been years so maybe I’ll check that out while we’re there.
When I finally saw the Book of Mormon in San Francisco, I really enjoyed it. One really funny thing was that in the program, of course, there are ads here and there for different things. On the last page is a full-page ad that said something like “Now that you’ve seen Play, read the Book! (sponsored by the Mormon church). It was really funny and showed me that they had a sense of humor. (I’m not a member).
Yeah, nl, those ads were in the playbill here in Chicago, too. From what I’ve heard there are many Mormons that have seen the show and raved about it. I’m about as far from religious as you can possibly imagine , but it’s refreshing that they can embrace the humor rather than try to fight it. Something tells me that most religious organizations – say, Scientology – wouldn’t be quite so eager to laugh alongside anything that so blatantly makes fun of their beliefs; although frankly, I think that Book of Mormon kind of pokes fun at all religions and just frames it from a Mormon perspective because they are a familiar target for Trey Parker.
LOL, PH 😀 Add me to the list of those who remember and don’t want to return to the days of fretting over everything because life would be ruined if something didn’t work out exactly as imagined. Glad you were there to reassure the young ones.
The green witch in the Wicked on Broadway was a lead that had returned from previously starring it. She was absolutely incredible. Find it hard to believe that Indina Menzel originated that part. This woman OWNED it.
I would agree, Fig. There was a lot there poking fun at all religions. Derek is not a practicing Mormon, from what I understand, but he gave two of his sisters tickets to that show and they loved it too. I have no idea if they are practicing or not.
In my opinion, Michael was the best of the night last week. Although I think he may have gained a ton of fans after his performance I do worry about his fanbase? I really would like him to stick around for a while.
@PH – Thanks for sharing your story. I have only visited NYC once and it on a bus trip for the day and one of the couples got lost and didn’t make it back to the bus in time. Yikes!
Sandy, I hope Michael picked up a bunch of fans last Monday too. Now, I’ve got my fingers crossed that he and Peta were able to do enough rehearsing this week so that he impresses with his Foxtrot tonight.
Until last week when folks here pointed out that Len never likes the football players, I hadn’t noticed this bias, but it’s soooo true. Kurt Warner, Donald Driver, Jacoby Jones – all of them were underscored. So he doesn’t like football guys or shorter, heavier ladies. Cmon Len!
PH, I have a friend that saw Wicked on Broadway a few weeks ago and said the same thing. I saw it when Idina Menzel was in NYC and Ana Gastayer (sp?) was here in Chicago. Based on these recent recommendations I will definitely see it again!
Also I’d be *shocked* if Derek or his sisters were practicing Mormons. I think the only Utah Mormon on DWTS that stuck with it was Chelsie.
@Cidra – That’s the beauty of this show. Someone that you least expect to be rooting for… just blows you away. And for me, my pick for best of the night may not have been the top scorer of the night but has the overall package (song, personality, partnership, and dancing) that entertains me and puts a smile on my face. And for me that was Michael and Peta.
As excited as I was for the return of Keo this season, I must say that I have been underwhelmed by him. So I won’t be too upset if he is eliminated tonight.
I was all for Keo getting another shot, but he’s been very disappointing. He didn’t do Charlotte any favors
I really hope there’s a Cheesecake Awards post soon… 🙂
@Nicole – IF we do Cheesecake, it won’t start back up until the 2nd half of the season, when the results show returns.
I really expect to see some beautiful dancing from Nastia but I’m not sure about a win. Once again this season, at least to me, looks difficult to call because audiences vote for so many other reasons than dancing. And I know some of us think Derek gets a lot of hate every season but wow, its real, especially now certain people have decided to dwell on the fact Henry practices with Nastia on (Fridays). I don’t know how much that might effect regular viewers unless the show actually airs that-then I think they too, might see it in a negative way. ? What do you mods think about the effect it could have?
I had some high hopes for Red-Foo, Willow but its hard to tell yet without seeing how they do in the different styles. Anyhow hope to see lots of dances from Derek and Nastia. They just are gorgeous as a couple so I hope they have enough time together to produce beautiful dances like Derek and Shawns. God I loved that season except the crap-tastic bogus ending, of course!
Henry only practices with Nastia on Sundays, since Derek can’t leave for LA until late on Sunday afternoon/evening. If people don’t like that, too fuckin’ bad. Nastia herself couldn’t practice of Friday or Saturday because she was in Vegas for a pre-planned engagement. I think the only people who will see this as a negative are those who weren’t going to vote for him anyway.
PH I hope that too and I agree with the too f***ing bad. I have gotten to the point now where I really want to see Derek and Nastia dance deep into the season just because of all the beautiful things they should be able to do but I am SO amused by all the desperate comments from the desperate losers and the its my turn people, while Derek just carrys on and enjoys the dancing, the show his fans and the experience of the whole thing. SOOO amusing and because of the others shitty attitudes all I want is for them to lose — too anybody!
Glad you enjoyed your trip to NYC Heidi. As always thank you for your hard work & dedication to the PureDWTS and PDH sites!
I’m thinkin Charlotte too goes home, which is too bad because I’d really LOVE to see what Keo can do!
I saw wicked awhile back (almost a year ago) and loved it. that ending is soooo good.
Can you imagine the furor if OMG the judges said this was Derek’s season…lol. For me, I will vote hard this season for Derek because it is the 20th Anniversary season with gold mirrorball…and he deserves it…lol….cue the drama…lmao.
On a different note, it is good to be back. I missed you all and especially the mods the last part of last season. I spent most of four months in the hospital with kidney failure and didn’t even see all the episodes and heaven knows hardly could stand not being on this site. I am now recovered (knock on wood) and hope for a good, fair season. Have a great one.
@Lynne Smith, Glad you’re better now!
So glad you’re back and recovered, Lynne!
I am hoping Charlotte goes home. I did not enjoy watching her dance, although she seems nice. I also think Suzanne could have done much better if she didn’t have such a ridiculous routine/costume. I loved Nastia and Derek’s dance and Rumer seemed nice and tried very hard. Can’t wait for tonight! I always watch the show, but the night isn’t complete until I get online and read PH’s comments 🙂
Oh, Lynne, it sounds like you’ve had a tough four months! Glad you are healthy now and back here. Looking forward to your comments!
I, too, hope Charlotte stays over Redfoo, but I don’t hold much hope of either of them staying very long. I wonder how hurt Patti is. Could she be a surprise elimination in the next week or two?
(((Welcome Back))) Lynne! I’m so sorry for what happened and so glad you are ok. xx
Sounds like a tough ordeal, Lynne, but glad to have you back and I hope that DWTS and the PureDWTS community provides a welcome distraction for you!