DWTS Season 20, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, DWTS Season 20 Week 2 is in the history books and it was a pretty good week. There was nothing that made me snort in disgust (from the judges, anyway) and a whole bunch of pretty darn good to great dancing.
But, as usual, someone has to go home on Monday night. Last week I was pretty clear when I said “Either Charlotte or Redfoo” and said my number 1 choice for most likely to be eliminated was Charlotte. I was pleasantly surprised to find that she was safe – most likely by 0.10 percent. No, I don’t believe Suzanne was a real bottom 2. For her to be a real bottom 2, it meant that Charlotte got nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than her and that Redfoo did nearly that much – and there ain’t no way you’re convincing me of that. Nope. I think that’s highly unlikely.
Now, normally, I would automatically assume that Charlotte was definitely the next to go. But I’m not so sure that’s true. Why? Well, let’s look at all the scores.
As you can see, Chris is a serious 5 points down from Charlotte. And, unfortunately for him, this was warranted. I like Chris. I think he’s one of the more pleasant Bachelors and he seems like a pretty nice, down to earth guy (it’s Witney that needs to make an adjustment, as much as I am a fan). I don’t think there’s any argument to be made that Chris is not more famous than Charlotte. AND Chris has a more well-known pro. But dude has some ground to make up.
Chris needs to get 14.5k more votes per million votes cast just to get past Charlotte. And really, that’s where the question is. So, how popular IS the Bachelor?? I wager it has roughly the same type of fanbase as DWTS and it occupies the DWTS time slot. It has a smaller audience, but I would bet there is huge crossover. Charlotte, on the other hand, was a relative unknown prior to Week 1 – especially, I would bet, to the DWTS audience. I think she gained some sympathy votes last week, in addition to people just liking her.
And yes, I think it strictly comes down to either Chris or Charlotte. All you have to do is look at how the people above Charlotte on the leaderboard are laid out.
Noah is directly above her, but you can forget it – that dude ain’t going anywhere after that bit with his fiancé. I *cried* that was so good.
Above Noah are two icons (Patti and Suzanne), one guy who is attractive and who is drawing the showmance buzz (Robert) and another guy who’s a good dancer and all around nice guy (Michael). Now, they’re not safe forever, but there’s no way that Chris is getting 20.2k more votes per million votes cast than them. Charlotte only needs 5.8k more votes per million votes cast, but I don’t think I see her pulling that off.
Anyway, take a look at the people above Chris and Charlotte in Tables 2 and 3 and see if you don’t agree that it’s got to be one of those two. Question is…which one?
I tend to think that Chris might be safe. But…I’m not sure. But in the interest of actually making a prediction, I’m going to very tentatively predict that Charlotte goes home. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
My initial thought was that Charlotte’s going home for sure. But seeing all your great insight makes me think it actually COULD be Chris. I tend to believe the Bachelor’s are usually quite popular amongst the audience of this show, but dude got such low scores… I was surprised back in Season 16 at how Sean made it to the Quarter Finals but I don’t think he was ever “terrible”. Just wondering if Chris could follow the same path.
I think I’ll do the safe thing and assume Charlotte is going home, but I hope I’m wrong. She really is trying and actually improving (as I saw from her rehearsal tonight). However, if she does go home, at least she got 3 dances and that’s better than 1 😛
PH, when did you find the time to do the numbers? Oh, never mind…when some of us were talking about stuff that was scaring John into hiding.
As usual, I’m not about to argue with your numbers. They make perfect sense.
Like you, I’m going to pick Charlotte as the one to go home. We know it’s going to come down to the sympathy vote. Did the fans feel sorrier for poor Chris–a nice guy who’s really trying but just isn’t that great a dancer or for poor Charlotte–the unknown girl who’s getting cyber-bullied because she’s young, pretty, has a large chest and did a sexy Superbowl commercial.
For my money, Charlotte’s the better dancer and she will get some sympathy votes for the nasty pounding she took on social media. However, I just feel the likeable, not bad-looking pseudo-farmer (who just declared his supposed love for some gal on national TV) will get *more* sympathy votes from the older heavily female audience.
I hope I’m wrong because I’d rather keep Charlotte. Nothing against Chris, he’s not a bad Bachelor, but in this case, I’d rather keep the celeb I feel has more dance potential.
I’m not so sure that Charlotte is the safe thing. 😀
I think it’s a tough call, but the bottom of the leader board does rally fans to vote for them, if it’s a worthwhile celeb. I think it’s fairly indisputable that these two are the most likely choices. I would rather Charlotte stay, but she may have used up one-week pass and now it’s Chris’s turn to be saved.
I do think Suzanne is in danger and although I think she had a much better dance, I just think it’s a tough field.
I *hate* to use Facebook likes as any predictor, especially since it can just indicate that people have caught on that it had some correlation with eliminations, and of course there’s a whole lot of people that wouldn’t even ever look at FB. But I do get curious to see how it matches up with my general impressions of what couples I *think* had a strong week with viewers and which didn’t, or might have gotten lost in the shuffle.
As of right now they look like this:
Riker/Willow/Rumer are about tied at the top
Nastia/Patti/Noah follow the top like-getters
Robert and Chris are a pretty distant third
Michael is a good hundred-something behind them (I think he may have gotten a bit lost in the shuffle last week, even though it was a good dance)
Suzanne is close behind Michael, and Charlotte has the fewest
Again, while I TOTALLY get that this doesn’t prove that this will be who is eliminated or anything, it does kind of jive with my general impressions of what I was seeing on Twitter, discussions with friends, fanbases (both pro and celeb), and my gut reaction to how the public viewed the couples.
Oh, and when I say that Suzanne is in danger, I don’t mean necessarily this week – but she may an earlier elimination than she might otherwise be, because of the tough field of stars and abilities.
I do think Chris is in serious danger because of his very low scores, but it’s very possibly Charlotte. Too close to call for me!
One last comment – sorry in advance for any posters that invoke the “Facebook likes predict the winner OMGERD” mantra because I brought it up. I’ll do my best Charlie Brown mopey, head down walk over here —–>
It is hard to predict who will be eliminated between Chris and Charlotte. You are right Heidi, I also think there are same type of fanbase between DWTS and the Bachelor. But I think Chris might be the least popular Bachelor, not because he’s unlikeable but I don’t think many are watching the show anymore. From what I know Sean Lowe was pretty popular. Unless the Bachelor Nation voted for Chris hard enough it’s going to be tough for him. To me Charlotte might gained lots of sympathy votes on Monday. We’ll see.
I agree with you Fig regarding Suzanne. I don’t think she’ll last many more weeks either due to it being such a tough field. If Charlotte does leave on Monday, I’ll be surprised if Chris and Suzanne are not the next 2 to leave in any order. I don’t take much notice of likes, retweets or video views either but even I had to do a double take when I saw Patti’s salsa had well over 1 million views on Facebook. Now I know that views certainly don’t transfer into votes but I have a feeling the unexpected attention on Patti could be Suzanne’s downfall. They are both so similar scores wise but she’s getting noticed, Suzanne isn’t. I predicted Charlotte to go last week and will do the same again this week. I hope just like last week that I’m wrong and Chris hits the road. Will be a very close call again.
Is it safe to come out yet? *peeks around the corner*
It’s already been proved pretty well that while facebook likes may predict who gets eliminated, it does NOT predict the finishes. It only got the winner right in Season 18 and that was glaringly obvious to begin with.
I know this confuses people, but it’s quite simple. If you don’t get many likes, you may be in trouble – but the number of likes above the low person is not indicative of actual votes.
And none of it may matter any more, since everyone knows it’s a thing – the insecure will vote in hordes, and those of us who don’t care don’t vote at all. 🙂
Actually, The Bachelor ratings have increase or held steady.
Penis.
Mwahahahahaha
Thanks as always, love these posts. I totally get the ‘votes per million’ – do we know on average how many millions of votes they get each week? I know it must flex based on the week, number of teams, etc, but don’t have any idea…
Oops…really Heidi? then Charlotte might be in trouble. The way Whitney treated Chris might even be an advantage for him because they probably vote harder.
Is anyone else getting the United Nations survey requirement before you are able to continue to this website? I’ve never seen it mentioned on any of the blogs here, so not sure if it is legitimate or not. After I answered the first question (after trying to get around it a few times to no avail), I was told I had to answer 6 more questions in order to have full access to this website. Is this a new thing?
Hi Deirdreo I got the same thing…..
It’s going to be tough to predict. If anything, it’ll be a true indication of Chris’s fanbase. If Charlotte was able to beat Redfoo last week and Redfoo is more well known, I’m thinking she might actually have somewhat of a fanbase.
Thanks again for all the hard work!
I am a little worried about Michael. His dance got lost in the shuffle a bit. He and Peta have been quiet on SM, and he didn’t have any live streams this week. They aren’t doing anything to keep themselves in viewers minds. Don’t know if this has anything to do with votes, but you gotta let people know you’re around.
Gethin and Emma have a live stream today and Riker has had two. Seems odd to me, but then again Redfoo had like 3 or 4 last week and he went home.
Well done Miss!!! What a great post again. I agree…it’s going to be between Chris and Charlotte. I can’t decide which? From the two, I hope Chris stays.
I know that much like Facebook, the Bing predictor isn’t exactly accurate, but when I looked yesterday, it had Charlotte, Suzanne and Michael as the “bottom 3” with Charlotte and Suzanne as the “bottom 2” and Charlotte going home. Thought that was interesting. I can see Michael possibly going earlier than I expected possibly getting lost in the personality shuffle.
Thank you as always for this post!
It’s something we’re testing out. I did it myself and once I answered the questions it said I had access to the content for six days.
She only needed ONE vote to beat Redfoo, and I don’t think that’s much of an accomplishment. I think Redfoo set the bar low.
@Jill, as far as the livestreams go it just happens to be of the couples who rehearse in LA. Since there probably aren’t as many as previous seasons, some of the couples have multiple streams in a week. I’d LOVE to see another one of Nastia & Derek but since they’re in NY every week it probably won’t happen. 🙁
Oh PH, I absolutely know that Facebook isn’t predicting who wins – I was poking fun at those that raved and roared about it in prior seasons. 🙂
Like I said, Facebook likes do tell me trends and impressions though, and they tend to match up with my gut feeling about who the general audience is excited about week-to-week, and who may have been disappointing or overlooked. Charlotte’s very low likes is pretty telling, but again not an absolute guarantee that she goes home.
I think Michael Sam is a perfect example of this – he had a good dance, but it wasn’t particularly memorable in a night full of great and fun ones. Next week will be really key for his longevity on the show, I think.
It’s hard to judge who will go. I think out of the big group above Chris and Charlotte Noah, Patti and Robert are pretty safe this week. Michael got lost in the shuffle for me this week and even though FB is a lost cause in terms of predictions you can get a sense of how people feel about a pair. I am not sure how many are voting for Suzzane as the producers put her in “the bottom 2” early. Though Charlotte may get some extra votes from her package, Chris fits nicely into the demo of casual viewers for the show.Im tentatively predicting Charlotte will go home but I don’t think this week will be a runaway
I think it’ll be Chris, or Suzanne. Both were in Bottom-3 last week. Chris’s scores were way too low…and Suzanne doesn’t have a huge fanbase. So both are in danger.
Charlotte is providing the show a lot of drama, so i don’t think she’ll be going home. But let’s see…
You have a real thing about Suzanne, DWTSFan. You were wrong last week and I think you’ll be wrong again this week. For Suzanne to leave this week, Chris would have to get 20k more votes per million votes cast than Suzanne in order for her to go home, AND Charlotte would have to get 6k more votes per million votes cast. That’s a pretty big number for Chris. It may not seem big for Charlotte, but considering their level of fame within the DWTS demo, it’s big enough.
In light of some new intel, I actually think Patti could be in danger…
But I’m assuming that’s due to something other than a lack of votes…
…true. 🙂
Oh no! I love Patti, although I don’t vote for her. I hope it doesn’t have anything to do with her knee.
Oh No! We worried about Patti’s ability to heal after a knee injury, not dance with it per say. Just in a sense that she has to feel better to continue dancing!
I think Chris or Michael might go home, because Charlotte may have received more votes than normal in response to the cyber-bullying.
I don’t think Michael is leaving this week. Look at the tables above to see how many more votes per million Charlotte or Chris would have to get to make that happen. He may in the bottom 4, but not the very bottom.
Hope Patti isn’t leaving 🙁
I believe the one who goes home is Chris & Witney. I had the elimination right last week I said it was gonna be Redfoo, I was not at all surprised that Charlotte was called safe I knew she wasn’t gonna be eliminated, I know how this show works very seldom does the person with the lowest score goes home. I maybe wrong but last season I had every elimination right except for one. Chris is in danger, Jake Pavelka didn’t do to well so I think its Chris’s time.
Give me a break, Matt. You were BARELY right, if Tom’s telling the truth. And being right one time doesn’t guarantee being right this time or at any time in the future. As for you “I know how this show works”??? Well, bully for you – why don’t you tell us how it’s all done. :::rolls eyes:::
PH, thanks for saying what I know I couldn’t!
I’m going to throw out an unpopular opinion, but I hope Patti is leaving this week. She had a lovely Foxtrot, but there was no real Salsa or even much real dancing in last Monday’s routine. It was a gutsy improvisational performance from a singing legend, and I give her props for that; but I don’t want to see a repeat.
If the condition of her knee is such that it’s keeping her from rehearsing enough to learn the dance and then perform it to some recognizable standard, she needs to withdraw. Even though it broke my heart, Dorothy Hamill did the right thing when she withdrew.
Cidra, I support your unpopular opinion wholeheartedly. I just wasn’t that impressed with Patti’s salsa last week. It was great club dancing for a 70 year old, but a salsa … nope. Unless we are going to see a real (sorry what is her dance this week, I forget!) _____, I’m not interested in seeing her stick around.
Thank you, PH, for the Dancing By the Numbers!
@Matt, If the low scorer rarely goes home, then where is the logic in your prediction that Chris will be next? Could it be because not only was he lowest, but by quite a bit?
I’m going to counter that because I think Chris has greater fan support than Charlotte. She slipped by with less than 1/10th of 1%, and Redfoo wasn’t connecting with viewers. If Chris goes, it will be precisely because they low-balled him IMO.
Rose1, I don’t think Chris was lowballed. He didn’t dance very well–he missed steps, got off time, forgot choreography. In my opinion the problem is the judges overscored a few folks–Patti, Redfoo & Michael.
No way was Patti’s non-Salsa worth 28; I think 24 would have been very generous. That said, no way were they going to give an injured legend (and diva) the score that dance actually deserved. As for Redfoo, while vastly improved over Week 1, that Jive wasn’t worth 31. Of course, they’ll deny it to the end, but I think the judges knew Redfoo was going so that was their parting gift. Michael got 28 for a Foxtrot that wasn’t as good as his ChaCha the week before which earned him a 26. I think another 26 would have been plenty.
Chris wouldn’t have as big a deficit to make up if Patti and Michael had been scored appropriately.
Ahh, poor Patti.
If she’s out early due to injury I guess this opens the door for a LIVE performance. Plus I’m still lukewarm on Artem. Frankly, it would not bother me if Patti goes out on “medical”. That will give Charlotte and Chris one more week to show their stuff.
I hope Chris & Witney have had a better week. She needs to remember that Chris ain’t Carlton/Alfonso, and that she will actually need to teach this partner how to dance. She’s good at that, she just needs to chill or smack Chris across the head with the old, “okay, so you want to be the 2nd person to go. Let me see what I can do to expedite the process.” 😉
Yeah, the person going home often gets a score (and praise) they don’t deserve. Funny how that works. 🙂
I hope Ms. Patti withdraws from the competition if she’s advised to by her doctors, rather than limping along performing watered down anemic routines. She had two memorable dances and should go out on a high note.
Do the mods know if their’s going to be a double elimination this season? I ask because if Patti withdraws Monday night, will there still be a couple eliminated?
Cidra, good point about the lowballing. If they hadn’t over scored a couple of the others the 5s would have made sense.
I, too, would rather see Chris and Charlotte over filler from Patti, if her injury is hampering any progress. I’m sure DWTS will do everything they can to keep it going though since she is this season’s biggest star.
Not sure where to put this, so please move to the correct spot. I’ve been thinking about switch-up week and Derek being so busy one week in particular. I wonder if TPTB would consider doing the switch up the week that he is so busy in NY and have Henry do the switch with one of the other celebs instead of Derek. It won’t hurt the celeb any because Derek would be a new partner anyway. What difference if it is Derek or Henry for one week??? (Of course, I’D rather have Derek, but you know what I mean.) 🙂
The problem with Michael’s score this week – the 28 does seem a bit generous when compared with the prior week’s 26, which was a better dance – but that dance was UNDERscored, relative to the others. So they are trying to self-correct for their initial wrong, or something, and it just results in a domino effect of the subsequent scoring being wonky. It happens with this panel all the time, and probably one of the biggest complaints from fans that just want fair, consistent scoring – even if it’s still taking into account different levels of experience, age, and other mitigating factors.
Meggie, I can’t believe that TPTB would bring Henry in for Derek just because Derek might possibly be busier during the switch-up week.. And why Henry and not Sasha or anyone else? Just because Henry is helping block, etc. on Sundays to me is no different than the Troupe doing any of the other random things that they are doing more and more each season including dancing more and more during all the participants’ individual dances and now some of the troup/pro’s doing live exercise hours.
I think Sasha might be too short, but you’re right, it doesn’t necessarily have to be Henry. I was just thinking height-wise. I guess it depends on whether it’s a matter of Derek literally not being able to be in two places at once – not sure if if he has to be in NY on the Monday of his busy week or if it’s just that he is super busy with extra show times, but not Mondays. If he does have shows on Monday, then something has to be done.
He doesn’t have shows on any Mondays. And with the exception of April 7th he doesn’t have shows on Tuesdays either
Well that answers that question! Thanks, Ananya! 🙂
Yeah, it’s just more of if his flight gets delayed and whatnot, but I think he’ll make it. I mean he has till 5 pm PST to make it on Mondays and I’m sure no matter what he won’t get there that late unless something big happens at the airports.
Meggie, I hadn’t thought of that but I wonder if you might be on to something. Week 6 show would be on April 20, right? The week leading up to that, Derek has his usual Wed/Thur show schedule but then two shows on Friday, 3 on Saturday and 2 on Sunday. It seems like he and Nastia seem to wrap things up on or before Friday and then she heads for LA late Friday/early Saturday so maybe it won’t make much difference time wise but it might be harder for a celeb not used to the system he and Nastia have worked out to adjust to it and feel ready to go. I’ve also wondered about the traveling and if anyone would balk at having to head to NY for a few days. I guess we’ll just see what happens.
What happens elimination wise after the switch up? I can’t remember from last season.
kc, eliminations regarding the switch up is the scores + votes from week 5 get combined with scores and votes on week 6.. and then someone goes home week 7.
Quick question – have we figured out whether Redfoo’s scores count in the final total of scores given out, or not?
I don’t think they would have Henry fill in for Derek on Switch-up. Henry is not a pro this season, Derek is, which makes Derek responsible for all his pro duties which includes the switch-up. Henry is just basically a fill in for camera blocking/last minute rehearsal buddy and a backup in case something happens where Derek can’t make it out of NYC. He’s not an extension of Derek where he can just take over Derek’s duties on any given Monday for no emergency reason.
There is only one Tuesday that Derek has shows and that’s next week and my guess is he will do the same schedule he does now and head straight for the airport after DWTS finishes and be in NYC in time for his 2 PM curtain. Since NYSS is out of previews and into it’s straight run he should no longer have rehearsals or anything other than showing up to perform for that production which leaves him probably more rehearsal time with Nastia than before. There should be no issue with him coaching his switch-up partner during the time he is not on stage either.
As for one of the celebs not wanting to go to NYC for the week, it’s doubtful they will get the choice. I am sure there is some sort of contract involved that travel could be expected. The only one who might be an issue is Willow because her age makes her a whole other beast and that’s easy to fix on the producer side by not putting her with Derek.
There should be absolutely no reason for Henry or another dancer to step in for Derek for switch-up for the week.
Well, kc, I guess we’ll find out soon enough. Certainly is a controversial subject. 🙂
This is an age old question, Aviva – we don’t know. It really doesn’t make a huge difference at this point anyway.
I agree, Michelle. Derek probably has a lot more time on his hands now than he did even a week ago. When his show was in previews they were doing hours of rehearsal every day to fine tune the show, in addition to the shows themselves. On days where he only has one show, we’re talking 90 minutes of his time. The rest of the time he can spend with his partner, as needed.