DWTS Season 20, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, DWTS Season 20 Week 2 is in the history books and it was a pretty good week. There was nothing that made me snort in disgust (from the judges, anyway) and a whole bunch of pretty darn good to great dancing.

But, as usual, someone has to go home on Monday night. Last week I was pretty clear when I said “Either Charlotte or Redfoo” and said my number 1 choice for most likely to be eliminated was Charlotte. I was pleasantly surprised to find that she was safe – most likely by 0.10 percent. No, I don’t believe Suzanne was a real bottom 2. For her to be a real bottom 2, it meant that Charlotte got nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than her and that Redfoo did nearly that much – and there ain’t no way you’re convincing me of that. Nope. I think that’s highly unlikely.

Now, normally, I would automatically assume that Charlotte was definitely the next to go. But I’m not so sure that’s true. Why? Well, let’s look at all the scores.

DWTS 20 Week 2 Table 1

As you can see, Chris is a serious 5 points down from Charlotte. And, unfortunately for him, this was warranted. I like Chris. I think he’s one of the more pleasant Bachelors and he seems like a pretty nice, down to earth guy (it’s Witney that needs to make an adjustment, as much as I am a fan). I don’t think there’s any argument to be made that Chris is not more famous than Charlotte. AND Chris has a more well-known pro. But dude has some ground to make up.

DWTS 20 Week 2 Table 2

Chris needs to get 14.5k more votes per million votes cast just to get past Charlotte. And really, that’s where the question is. So, how popular IS the Bachelor?? I wager it has roughly the same type of fanbase as DWTS and it occupies the DWTS time slot. It has a smaller audience, but I would bet there is huge crossover.  Charlotte, on the other hand, was a relative unknown prior to Week 1 – especially, I would bet, to the DWTS audience. I think she gained some sympathy votes last week, in addition to people just liking her.

And yes, I think it strictly comes down to either Chris or Charlotte. All you have to do is look at how the people above Charlotte on the leaderboard are laid out.

DWTS 20 Week 2 Table 3

Noah is directly above her, but you can forget it – that dude ain’t going anywhere after that bit with his fiancé. I *cried* that was so good.

Above Noah are two icons (Patti and Suzanne), one guy who is attractive and who is drawing the showmance buzz (Robert) and another guy who’s a good dancer and all around nice guy (Michael). Now, they’re not safe forever, but there’s no way that Chris is getting 20.2k more votes per million votes cast than them. Charlotte only needs 5.8k more votes per million votes cast, but I don’t think I see her pulling that off.

Anyway, take a look at the people above Chris and Charlotte in Tables 2 and 3 and see if you don’t agree that it’s got to be one of those two. Question is…which one?

I tend to think that Chris might be safe. But…I’m not sure.  But in the interest of actually making a prediction, I’m going to very tentatively predict that Charlotte goes home. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.