DWTS Season 20, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers
Ah where to start this week? Well, I could rant about the judges (or was it just CAI) being total nut jobs in their scoring – towards Nastia and Robert, in particular – but I feel like I’m preaching to the choir and I got it out of my system earlier in the week. Besides, it very likely doesn’t matter that CAI is a complete ass, because I don’t think anyone is touching Nastia, Riker, or Rumer. And probably not Willow either. Although you never know…
Anyway, our crack addled judges underscored Robert pretty badly relative to others, like Chris and Patti, who aren’t as good at dancing – although Miss Patti is still my ball of light. 😉 As a result, this is the week that truly tests Robert’s place in this competition. Chris was able to beat Suzanne – although he needed few votes to do so, so it wasn’t a real test. THIS will be a real test…and I’m a skeered of the results. I love me some Robert. What does Robert need to do to beat at least one person to be safe?
Now if you’re me, you look at the above table and go “shit.” More than 10k votes to beat Chris. Jaysus. Well, 10k is really not that many votes. People have beaten MUCH bigger margins. Can’t remember what the record is (and I’m too lazy to look it up cuz it’s nice outside and I wanna go drink a nice shandy – writing this on Saturday, btw – even I draw the line on Sunday mornings…unless we’re talking champagne brunch then I’m all in), but it might still be Kurt Warner sending Audrina Patridge packing by getting around 45k more votes per million votes cast than her. In that context, 10k ain’t much. But dang – who wins this battle, the Bachelor or the Shark?? Please let it be the shark.
I honestly have no idea. I don’t have a feel for how either of them are really doing. And no, I don’t think that anyone is trying to get rid of Robert. There are times when I think the judges do that, but I don’t think this is one of them. Both men are ABC-family. There is nothing to gain by trying to keep one over the other, that I can see. It’s not logical. If one is getting substantially higher votes, then that’s the one they’re going to want to keep. I see no motive in keeping one over the other.
For the sake of argument, let’s say that Robert gets his 10k. What does Chris need to be safe?
Now, you’ll note that I left Miss Patti entirely out of the equation in my discussion above even though she has the same score as Chris. Why did I do that? Well, in looking at Chris’ table, I realized that it was also Patti’s table. Which means my gut says that Patti has another week in her. She only has to beat Chris by ONE vote to be safe and I have to believe that she’s getting that one vote. See, this is how I figure it – I figure that I can’t be the only woman in America who adores Miss Patti even though she barely dances. Now, they may also LOVE Robert (as do I), but I have to think that she’s getting votes too. And she only needs ONE, so…
So, in looking at Tables 2 and 3, what stands out to YOU? What stands out to me that Willow, Riker, Nastia and Rumer are most likely safe. There are some nice big numbers between the upper tier and the lower tier which should be a nice cushion. I don’t think Noah is going anywhere yet, even though Chris and Patti need less than 4k to beat him. I don’t think either one is beating him, although even if they were I don’t think Robert is, so he’s likely safe too. However, it should be noted that he’s technically in the lower tier – he needs more than 20k votes per million votes cast to beat Willow – so my not including him in the lower tier is simply my thought that he’s safe for a while yet and is not based in actual scores.
That leaves us with Robert, Chris and Patti. These are my bottom 3 for the week. Now, I think Patti is getting the ONE vote to beat Chris. So, I think she will end up being safe, although they may put her in jeopardy just to be cute. Oh, another possibility is Robert and Patti splitting votes, I suppose, which could give Chris an opening. But I’m going to stick with Patti being safe.
That leaves us with Chris and Robert. I have to believe that Robert is going to end up being safe – he’s enjoying himself so much and Chris just…isn’t. So, I think Chris is going to be eliminated. If not him, then Robert. Third choice is Miss Patti.
Keep in mind that the numbers are relatively small, still – any one of Robert, Chris, Patti or Noah going home is not going to be “shocking”. Not really. What would be shocking is if Willow, Riker, Rumer or Nastia get eliminated. I don’t think that’s going to happen this week. Take a look at their numbers.
You’ll see that Noah has a LOT of ground to cover to get past one of the top 4. Willow has less ground to cover to get past the top three, but it’s still a good bit. If the scores continue to shake out like this in the next two weeks, and Chris and Patti get eliminated, be on the lookout for a shocking elimination. If Robert does very well on his next two dances and one of the top 4 doesn’t keep up their game, while Noah is still in the competition? It could get interesting.
Of course, it could get interesting before then. As we’ve often pointed out, people who are likely to have similar fanbases often can’t both be sustained in the competition. And we have two pairs would could be called “similar”. We have Willow and Riker – similar age group for fanbases, both less reliable than Nastia and Rumer. Then there’s Nastia and Rumer. They have fewer similarities – the main one is age group. Their fanbases are likely to be very different, Olympian versus Hollywood kid. So, things could get interesting…but it all depends on this week’s elimination, really. If Chris or Patti go this week, and the other goes the following week – look out in week 8. Could get crazy.
Anyway, part of me expects them to start touting a “shocking elimination” and that elimination being Chris, just because he’s a few points ahead. So don’t freak out until Chris, Robert and Patti are all called safe. Then you have my permission to totally freak out. 🙂
As always, thank you so much for breaking the numbers down. Makes it a lot easier to get an idea of what might happen Monday.
After week 5 my first thought was “damn, Robert is screwed” but now looking at these numbers I’m not so sure anymore. I just have this feeling he isn’t going home. He’s been getting a great edit so far so I really don’t get the impression the show wants him gone. Chris got a pretty bad edit last week and while Robert may have messed up a lot in his dance he looked like he was just having SO much fun. Chris looks pained to be there.
The conspiracy theorist in me also wondered if the confusion over the no elimination/double elimination came about because once they knew who was eliminated it was someone they want to get rid of sooner rather than later (Chris). It’s more likely that the show is just a mess and no one had any idea what is going on so it’s probably not related to the actual results.
My guess is Chris but Robert is obviously my 2nd choice. I do think Noah will cause for a shocking elimination though as I don’t think Willow, Riker, Rumer, and Nastia will all make it to the finals. I think Rumer and Nastia are fine but I don’t see both Willow and Riker making it.
Thanks as always. I hope you’re right. I’d love to see Miss Patti for another week and Robert for a couple more at least. I won’t be sad about Chris having the opportunity to take his fiance home to Iowa and get started on that life they say they want.
@DLT I actually think Nastia, Riker and Rumer will be in the finals, and for the 4th spot it’ll be a tie between Noah and Willow I’m thinking.
ROTFL! You crack me up!
Anyway, I’m with you. I think Chris is the most in danger this week. Patti second.
Great numbers post as always. I look so forward to these.
I’m ready for Chris to go home this week. His heart is just not in it anymore and quite frankly, I’m not sure if it ever was.
If it isn’t Chris then it’s a toss up for me between Robert and Patti. Of course, I’d rather lose Patti over Robert any day. I love me some Patti but her lack of dancing is not doing it for me anymore. I do like that she’s a fighter and that she honestly wants to do well but I don’t wanna lose any of my favorites over her.
Once Patti and Chris are gone then I honestly don’t know what could happen. I’m actually still iffy about Rumer’s fanbase and I could see her as a shock elimination, but I won’t bank on it.
does anyone know for sure if there is going to be an elimination tomorrow night? I have heard so many different things!
I have never wanted someone to make up 10.6 k votes more then I do Robert this week! Though I think he’ll have a tough time with the Jive if he gets through he has week 7 scores to add before elimination in the results show next Tuesday ! I know a lot of people that voted for Robert just to potentially get rid of Chris. Hopefully that trend continues and Chris leaves. I wonder if they will call teams in jeapordy like they usually do on team dance night! That would give us an easy indication of who is leaving considering the makeup of each team.
Yes Haley there is foresure an elimination that has been confirmed
First time commenter here, but I’ve been following along for a few seasons. Just curious- PH- Do you think Chris’s poor attitude and yelling at Witney in their package will hurt him this week as far as votes go? I’ve never been that fond of him to begin with but he just came off as a total jerk to me after that.
A question – do we know for sure that Suzanne’s points are left in the calculations, even though she was eliminated? Just to see what it would do to the calculations, I dropped those 28 points out of the totals – leaving a total of 255 points instead of the 283. It changed the percentages – using that method, Robert got 9.41% to Chris’ (and Patti’s) 10.58%. The delta Robert would need went from 10,601 votes per million to 11,701.
Hopefully, it’s just me being paranoid.
As to a rationale for “getting rid of Robert”, I can only think of one – Which show (The Bachelor or Shark Tank) draws better ratings in the coveted 18-49 demo? I tried to look that up, and got confused. The Bachelor was ranked #6 in that demo, but the article also said Shark Tank was #1 in the demo for Friday nights… but the overall rating for Shark Tank was smaller than The Bachelor. JMO, but I think as far as TPTB is concerned, it’s all about numbers of young eyeballs on the screen.
I think it can hurt Amy, yes. It hurts him with the more casual voters who are not Bachelor fans. Everything hinges, though, on the Bachelor fans – how many are there and do they want him to stay even though it’s pretty clear he doesn’t want to stay?
Sally, we don’t know for sure, but the rules do say “judges points awarded” – Suzanne’s points were awarded to her, so I leave them in. If they aren’t left in, they need to rewrite their rules. In any case, the change in percentages is so minuscule that it’s likely well within the margin of error. You’re talking 1100 votes – that’s nothing.
Both men made it to week 6 – both of their respective shows have been helped. But now DWTS has to worry about it’s own ratings and if Robert is getting a lot more votes and press attention (he is with the press, IMO), then it’s logical to keep him over Chris, regardless of the ratings of the two men’s shows. Clearly, logic dictates that in their case votes equals viewers. That may certainly not be true with someone like Riker whose fanbase is much younger, but I think it is with both Chris and Robert. It’s illogical to get someone eliminated based on the ratings of their two shows over the ratings of DWTS. Now, maybe Chris is the one that’s doing better in the votes. Who knows.
And really, another possibility that has to be considered is that the judges are, from time to time, complete idiots. Sans Julianne who has a pretty damn good track record, compared to the others.
Chris was probably getting a decent amount of votes from casual voters who appreciated that he had no dance experience and was trying hard to improve. But that VT might have hurt him badly amongst the casual voters. He was getting slaughtered online.
I’ve got a gut feeling that Patti leaves Monday. I expect her and Chris will be the last 2 standing with the norm being that one whole team gets called in jeopardy. Chris has proven that he’s pulled in votes already this season and I could maybe see Patti and Robert splitting votes, (Suzanne and Tony fans will probably split their votes between those 2 for starts). I really hope I’m wrong though, I’m sick of Chris and Witney and it’s time for them to go, he doesn’t even want to be there. I just have a feeling he’s going to get more votes than Patti.
That’s actually not “a norm” M8. I think it’s only happened a couple times and team dances have been going on since season 7.
I’m wrong all the time with this elimination topic but here’s my take. I have a gut feeling that Robert will be OK. I also think that Chris will be given his walking papers but I said that last week too! I do think that his bad attitude last week and his train wreck of a dance is what’s going to do him in. Especially the bad attitude. No one appreciates bad attitudes. Period. Let’s face it folks… he does NOT want to be there. Let’s just grant him his wish!! Robert, on the other hand, is joy personified and he DOES want to be there and do the best he can and I also think he doesn’t want to let Kym down. I can overlook a so-so performance because we all can have a bad night and his happiness just rubs off on me and my Mondays always can use more happiness. I suspect a lot of people appreciate his hard work and smile – even if his timing was off. So I think Robert will be fine. We’ll see….
I mean since we’ve had the current voting system (couple goes home based on last weeks votes) it has been the norm and that was implemented in season 17 after they canned the results show. Since that season they’ve always called a team in jeopardy.
I think it will be Chris this week. Who knows – maybe he asked the producers to be eliminated? He’ll have a good package, get good scores and then he’ll “go out on a high note”. Although really I think either way, Robert is pulling more votes – at least I hope so!
That’s still only three seasons. I wouldn’t bet on it necessarily happening again. I think it would be a waste of good “drama” for them to do that in any case.
As for Chris – he hasn’t proven a thing this season. He’s only been the bottom scorer twice. The first time was against a complete unknown (Charlotte). It would have been more shocking if he hadn’t been safe. The second time he only needed about 3k votes to get past Suzanne – not exactly a tough row to hoe. That’s virtually nothing. Every other time he’s had multiple people below him on the leader board.
DWTSFan, you are working on your last chance. You are once again stating things as fact that you have no way of proving as fact. Cut it out.
I think this week presents the first real test for any celeb at the bottom of the leaderboard this season. 10.6k is definitely a number Robert could make up but its not the easiest either, it depends on Chris’s questionable fan base. He won’t have the support of any of the casual voters after the package that is fore sure. I think Robert can make it up and be safe, and I really hope he does, as I honestly don’t want Chris on the show anymore past tomorrow.
I love all your posts, but particularly Dancing By the Numbers and the Power Rankings.
So, I got an impression that this week was a “buy-week”…no elimination this week, but double elimination the following week. Anyone else.
I’m sad to see another painful week of watching poor Patti not be able to move much and Chris whine about not knowing how to move! Someone needs to let them out of our misery!
Maybe there’s an elimination this week…then followed by a double? I thought maybe TPTB planned to skip the elimination this week to save time for the team dances?
I was hoping Suzanne could get past Chris, but that didn’t happen. Like many here, I am very ready for him to go. I am really hoping that Robert was able to cover that spread between him and Prince Farming. I hope the shark wins. I am loving Robert’s growth in this show. Add to that his joy in being a part of it and that he dances a lot better than Chris.
Thank you for this Numbers post, Princess H!
There’s an elimination this week.
PH (#12) – If I recall, Redfoo was eliminated by 0.1%, which would work out to 1,000 votes per million. So I’d respectfully disagree that this is just margin of error.
And I agree with you that DWTS needs to worry about its own ratings, and not those of the Bachelor or Shark Tank – I was just trying to point out that, with all of the moves TPTB have made to increase viewership in the demo, they might try to “engineering” the competition with at least a partial goal of keeping ratings in the demo as high as possible.
Thank you for doing the numbers. I’m really cautiously optimistic that Robert has a large enough fan base to overcome the difference in his and Chris’ scores. I really hope Chris goes tomorrow night.
If they don’t do a team Jeopardy, then it could be any one of the bottom 5 in Jeopardy tomorrow night. I don’t think anyone would believe Rumor, Riker or Nastia would be going home.
I felt very confident that Robert would be safe. But then I realized that would be about a 10k margin – more than I initially thought, and you confirmed this, PH. So I don’t feel QUITE as certain.
However, I still think that Chris goes home because I can’t imagine anyone dialing up for him after last week – especially the general audience. Whereas everyone is up in arms about Robert, and I think he’s gained a lot of general audience fans, especially with the favorable video packages and showmance. While I don’t care for Robert like most do, I’d still rather see him dance another week or two and put Chris and Witney out of their misery.
But as much as I’d like for Chris to go, I do think Robert has a MUCH bigger chance of playing spoiler as the semis and finals approach, and uprooting a contestant that I’d rather see in the finals, so I definitely won’t be heartbroken if he’s unable to overcome the vote gap on Monday. But I do think that’s unlikely.
I want to believe Chris is leaving but I’m not solidly convinced, mostly since I was so sure Chris would be eliminated last week but somehow he turned up again like a bad penny.
I guarantee the general audience likes Robert way more than Chris, especially after Chris snapped at Witney. However, I think people voting for Robert would be more likely to split their votes between multiple contestants, where as those voting Chris are more likely to spend all possible votes on him. This practice of split voting could provide a way for Chris to stay over Robert, especially if Bachelor fans are the kind who will vote obsessively.
Ultimately, I’ll still predict Chris leaves.
Come on, Sally, Robert isn’t redfoo, and neither is Chris. Either way, it’s such a tiny amount and we have no idea what either man is getting. Redfoo being eliminated by 0.1 percent means absolutely nothing in this context. You’re picking nits. 3000 or 4000 – this isn’t something I can worry about because, a) we don’t know, and b) we can do nothing about it.
I’ve just had a thought. The anniversary show is being taped on April 21st. So wouldn’t the eliminated pro be in NY on the 21st doing GMA? I’m not familiar with timezones but would it be possible for the said pro to fly from NY back to LA in time for the show. The only reason I put it in here is that Witney is scheduled to dance with Alfonso so would she be able to go to NY if she gets eliminated?
I’m sure this isn’t a factor at all but I wanted to post it anyway and see what people think, could this potentially favour Patti and Artem going home because Artem has only been on the show 2 seasons so won’t be desperately needed for the anniversary show if he has to fly to NY? Just wondering.
Tom Bergeron just tweeted that there’s 1/2 % difference between the bottom two. Hope it’s not Robert. He also said double elimination next week. I’m guessing one on Monday, one Tuesday. I think we’re heading for 3 couples in the finals.
Oh Tom just added two couples getting eliminated on Tuesday 4/28. That’s an easy way to get a surprise elimination.
Oh man, I have to think that it’s Robert and Chris, right? Yikes – and maybe Chris had just enough to eke past Robert. I don’t know at this point, but it does boggle the mind to think that Chris is making it this close. He doesn’t even want to be there!
I was checking Bing predictor, and it has Chris and Patti in danger. Even in one of the online polls most people seem to think Chris will be eliminated. I’m holding out hope for Robert.
I keep forgetting about Patti! Adoy! There’s another component there.
Is it possible Robert managed to get more votes then Chris and Patti? Then that would leave those two as the bottom 2! Everyone has been pretty preoccupied with saving Robert this week
Please let it be Chris. I guess it could be between Patti and Chris. I would prefer to see Patti walk around looking graceful/beautiful than watch Chris dance. I’m STILL holding out hope for Robert.
CC I think it’s defo possible that Robert has beaten them both with the support he’s had from people who don’t want to see him leave. I’m still convinced it’s Patti going and Tom’s half a percent tweet makes me even more positive with her and Chris tied in scores. Gonna be painful watching Chris if he survives with him not even wanting to stay. But at least the double elimination next week will put him down for good if he somehow wriggles through tonight.
So this is going to sound weird maybe, and perhaps I’m TOTALLY wrong and off-base – but I feel like whenever Tom reveals that the results were SUPER close, the person going home has more notoriety or is a higher-scorer – usually the former. So with this it makes me wonder if it’s Patti, who would definitely fit that bill. But again I don’t know if this is just my impression of this behavior, or if it’s indicative of anything at all or absolutely way off base. Just my own observation. But it does make me fully question the certainty of ANY of those three going home tonight – and so my earlier prediction is thrown into the wind.
Actually, it makes more sense to talk about a half a percent difference in votes if you’re referring to Chris and Patti, not Robert and Chris or Robert and Patti. Because, a half a percent in votes between Chris and Patti means EVERYTHING, while a half a percent difference in votes between Robert and everyone else means absolutely nothing other than Robert is going home. It’s not even “close”.
Also to add Redfoo and Charlotte were tied in judges scores the week before the 10th of a per cent elimination in week 2. Just like Chris and Patti were last week…
I’m back from a long trip, but I still followed the site when I was away. I hope Sharkaroo is safe tonight. I think Robert and Kym are adorable and sparkling, and I want to see more dances from them.
Heidi, I always look forward to your Numbers post. I’m honored to call you a fellow scientist.
Also I wanted to thank you and all the PureDWTS Moderators for all that you do. I am amazed at how you stick with the ups and downs of the show to bring us the news and commentary. You guys are patient, tough, and dedicated, and you do a fantastic job running this site.
Would Robert having 1/2 a percent more votes then Patti/Chris even cover the spread? Either this is a very obvious elimination or Robert isn’t even part of the Bottom 2
I don’t know CC, PH will know. I’ve just seen Tom B tweet that both eliminations next week will be on Tuesday night. In that case, I actually wouldn’t mind Chris staying for another week now and Patti or even Robert leaving. They deserve a proper send off as an individual couple rather than being shoved out the door next Tuesday and forced to share the spotlight with another eliminated couple in a results show.
Help, help…San Antonio is delaying DWTS tonight to show the River Parade. Is there anyway I can watch online?
No, CC, that’s why I said it’s such an irrelevant thing to say in connection to Robert. Unless of course they don’t mind being irrelevant. 🙂 Entirely possible. It’s kinda like saying, “Robert and Chris were only separated by 500 votes!!!!…..but Sorry Robert, you needed 10k.”
Rebecca, DM me at @purederekhough.
God I love Mark! He tweeted about 45 minutes ago that he was watching a documentary about Kurt Cobain on HBO, and that it was a must see.