Angels Weigh In On New Las Vegas Odds For Dancing With The Stars Week 7
Well, the odds makers have placed their new bets for week 7 of Dancing With The Stars Season 20 at Sports Bovada. We’re seeing some switches again after last week’s show. Note how Riker Lynch and Rumer Willis are now tied for second place. I was also shocked to see Noah Galloway so low this time. Take a look at the new odds. Does this look about right or are they totally wrong? Let us know in comments. We’d love to hear your thoughts as always.
Nastia Liukin 11/10
Riker Lynch 3/1
Rumer Willis 3/1
Willow Shields 6/1
Robert Herjavec 33/1
Noah Galloway 40/1
Chris Soules 50/1
My thoughts: In my opinion, Rumer should be in 4th. If I was going to tie someone for 2nd place, I’d tie Riker and Willow instead. Unless we see some huge stand out dances in the coming weeks, I don’t think Rumer is all that. I would also put Noah above Robert. In fact, I think it’s going to be between Robert and Chris going home next.
Heidi and Court, what do you think?
Heidi: I’m thinking there should be a 3-way tie for first place, with Willow in second, cuz I’m not at all sure what’s going to happen. This week will be interesting. Was last week a fluke for Rumer, where they called out the choreo and the attitude of the dance? Or is it the new normal? And why the change in tune?? These judges like to be right – is Riker coming on strong and taking over the competition?? You know, I’m going to vote my butt off for Nastia, but I would love to see the expression on Val’s face if Riker were to win with a non-ballroom trained pro. THAT would be hilarious. 😀 Interesting, Nastia got kinda hosed by the judges as well but the odds makers seem to think she’s bullet proof. I wonder if her odds change if Derek’s out for good? Anyway, I think the bottom three are correct, and probably in that order. Hard to say. Noah is a wild card.
Courtney: I, like Heidi, still think it could be any one of 3 people taking the top spot at this point – and with Riker peaking at the right time, I think he might possibly edge out Rumer. Speaking of the latter, I’m still not positive how she’s doing in the votes department – sure, she’s getting great scores, but how many people have actually VOTED for her? With the Val fans seemingly splintering into factions (the Vajanel shippers vs. the Rumer fans vs. the Kelly fans vs. the rational few that don’t care about shipping), I’m not sure he can rely upon every single vote he got with Janel last season to also get up and vote this season. And how many people are voting for her based on who her parents are? I just don’t think we have a clear picture at this point. I’m also uncertain about Robert & Noah – Robert may be more able-bodied, but he’s also gotten kinda beat up by the judges recently; Noah may be reaching the peak of what he’s able to do, but he seems to have a LOT of fan support. Who will edge out whom? Will be interesting to see. And for the love of god, I hope Chris the Clydesdale FINALLY loses steam this week…but at this point, with him already having edged out Suzanne & Patti, I wonder if this guy just has a lot of steam coming off of The Bachelor. Willow? Somewhere in the middle – she seems to run hot and cold, and this past week she faded into the woodwork a bit.
All I want, is for Chris to go home this week, the right top 6 are the one’s listed above him on the odds. That would make me extremely happy.
Yes! Please let Chris go.
I agree that Nastia will probably win with Rumer/Riker fighting for 2nd. I wouldn’t even begin to know how the next three will shake out. It just depends on fan support, and of course how well they do with the immunity dances. I guess we’ll see Monday who the judges/TPTB want for the final.
And Courney, you’re getting my hopes up with your not being sure how Rumer is really doing in votes. I just assumed they wouldn’t have scored her so low if she weren’t getting them. Rumer/Val bore me and Chris is overdue to go.
I have a question : Why Chris isn’t withdrawing if he’s miserable in the competition ? My guess is for either the ego or money but I was wondering if you guys knew the anwser ?
I totally agree, PH, it would be hilarious to see Val’s face if Riker wins with Allison.
I don’t know what anyone thinks but I kinda see a pattern with the top of the leader board. They being Nastia, Riker, and Rumer have taken turns being on top. My guess this week it’s Nastia’s turn. Out of those 3 Nastia is the most consistent if she wasn’t first she was second. As for whose going home I think it’s anyone’s game it really depends on the voting but Robert Chris and Noah will probably be going home if not this week next week. Although Willow could be a shocker.
@Kathy Willow’s had a turn too. I think anyone could be a shock, because I don’t think all of the top 4 will make the final, but Nastia is the only one I’m pretty sure will make it to the final, Chris is the only one I’m pretty sure won’t, although I have major doubts about Robert.
@Dee2 Money. The contracts for almost all these shows give you a big pay-cut if you quit. He wants to be eliminated, but it’ll cost him money to do it himself.
One must remember money bet is what moves the odds. More important not everyone places the same amount on each bet, unlike public voting it is not the number of bets but the total $. One thousand dollar bet equals 10 $100 bets.
It’s not a pay cut, exactly, I don’t think. You get paid according to how long you last on the show, as does your pro. If you quit, they don’t “cut” your pay – you just don’t get paid any more. If that makes sense.
Nice 🙂 I am still happy to C that Nastia is at the top. I obviously dont know how they come to this conclusion I like it this time. I think Willow also has a good shot I personally like willow more than Rummer I am not against rummer I liked her in week 1n but after few oh her packages it went down hill and all tat sexy sexy I wonder if I would have liked her more if she was partnered with Derek or any other pro. Coming back to the odds Nastia is spot on and will do my best to support her after that its willow and Riker. Chris needs to go I feel bad for him but this is not the show for him i guess
@Princess Heidi Maybe. I do know shows where you get an appearance fee assuming you last your natural course on the show, but you know the backstage ins and outs of DWTS better than I do, and now I come to think about it I think the backstage gossip I’ve hear from Strictly is that it’s a similar pay scheme. It has to be financial though, I can’t imagine he thinks he’s going to get a media career out of it any more than Sean Lowe did from finishing 6th. Even Melissa Rycroft hasn’t really got anything outwith the show.
I think the top four is about right at this point. However, I wouldn’t tie Rumer with Riker. I think Riker has her beat. I’m still just very iffy about Rumer’s fanbase. She isn’t coming from any popular show or movie and it isn’t like she was super famous back in the day either. I just wouldn’t be at all surprised if she ended up going home in the semifinals or ended in 4th place in the finals. At this point, I just think Nastia and even Riker have a better chance at the trophy.
Willow is a huge question mark for me. I’m rooting for her and giving her all my votes every week, but I am not sure the general audience is doing the same. Last week I will agree that she kinda faded into the woodwork with her Salsa even though I thought it was great. I have a feeling she’s gonna kill it in the Jazz this week and that’ll maybe help her stick around for a while longer but I really don’t know. If she could at least make it to the finals, that’ll be great.
Noah, Chris and Robert are other big question marks. I think Noah may be doing better in votes than the other two so I don’t think he should be between them on the list. This upcoming Monday I think it’s between Chris and Rob.. hopefully with Chris getting the boot already..
@CCNY Pretty much on the same page as me then, but I am thoroughly dubious about Riker’s fanbase. The tween fans have never been that reliable. Cody Simpson certainly didn’t do that well, and he should have had a bigger overall number of fans. Riker’s been in jeopardy twice, which normally I wouldn’t credit but I was already a little sceptical about his votes before it happened. Nastia should definitely win, and I’d like to see Willow make the top 3 with possibly Riker. I also have strong suspicions that Noah will finish 4th; in fact that’s the strongest feeling I have, more so than who’ll win, make the final 3 and go next.
I AM still pretty sure RUMER will win at the end, with either Nastia or Riker as the runner up.
Riker or Willow will be this season’s ”shock” elimination. As much as i want Nastia-Derek to win cause i’m rooting for ’em, i highly doubt that’ll happen. I can always understand the ”pattern” of each season and how everything plays out. The TPTB are already trying to make this ”Val’s year” (remember Len’s comment at the very premiere night?)..and the pimping is pretty obvious too.
PS. MY OPINION only.
Anecdotal, of course but I do think he’s connecting with a lot of the general audience, not just the tweens. That’s not to say he’ll continue to do so or win, but I do think he’s got more pulling for him than just the tweenieboppers.
Weird, only part of my message posted.
Every person I’ve spoken with in real life about DWTS has said their favorite is Riker – that’s anecdotal evidence to be sure, but speaking with them has always provided pretty accurate insights into the general audience mindset. So I think he has built up more of a fan base than just the kids.
Really? Riker’s far from my favourite. He’s grown on me a lot, but at first I found him pretty intolerable. I guess we can wait and see. I don’t want him to go, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was to be the surprise elimination. If you were to ask me to choose from 1st to 7th would be Nastia, Willow, Riker, Noah, Rumer, Robert and Chris but I’m not sure I’ll get much of what I want.
At this point, I THINK the only eliminations that would be shocking would be Nastia, Riker, or Rumer.
The other 5 could go in any order, and it wouldn’t be shocking.
I’m not a teen, and I like Riker just fine.
Yeah, and these are people that watch and vote, but not power voters and don’t really align themselves with a particular pro, nor are they going on social media or the internet to seek out more DWTS-related stuff.
Again, I don’t think it means he’s destined to win or anything because a lot can change in the next few weeks based on the quality of their dances, packages, and how the judges react, but as of right now I think he’s doing pretty well with the general audience and the jeopardy thing is just a drama tactic.
I am somewhat surprised to see Nastia at the top simply because of the judges comments and how they seem determined to criticise the partnership. I think Riker has really increased his fan base and it will depend on Allison as to how far he goes now. I am not in his demo but find him very charismatic to watch. I agree with Willow going down a bit. Not sure why that is but I worry she might be a surprise elimination too. Rumer’s popularity is hard to figure out. Although she is being pimped heavily and also getting a fair bit of media coverage, it is hard to get behind her imo. It is like she sees herself as the only “cool” celeb and I am not sure people vote for “cool”. Thanks for providing such an amazing one stop shopping place for the show!
I mostly agree with the odds. Nastia is probably the best dancer, but the best dancer doesn’t always win. I think her personality isn’t connecting to the general audience as much as her closest competition and that she’ll end up as third place or runner-up.
Willow and Riker are my two favorites, but I have to admit that both their fan bases are iffy in terms of how many votes they are getting. At least Riker seems to have picked up a bunch of new support after his Paso, but I still worry. Willow sort faded into the background this week. If she doesn’t get immunity, I fear she could unfortunately become the first surprise elimination of the season.
Noah has fan support, but I don’t think that will be enough. I also think Noah’s fan base is pretty stagnate and won’t increase very much as time goes on, unlike other couples who will earn more votes as others are eliminated.
If there’s going to be an upset in the finals, Robert’s my pick. He’s fun to watch and has a certain underdog appeal.
Unless the gods of dance suddenly sprinkle magic pixie dust on Chris, there’s absolutely no way he wins. Period.
So that leaves Rumer. If I’m being honest, I think she currently has the best shot of winning. However, she might fizzle out before the finish line (especially if Val keeps the dark, edgy, intense trend).
Fig, I agree that Riker is connecting with the general audience. Casual viewers I know always say how much they enjoy his performances. Now, is that enjoyment strong enough to get them to pick up the phone for him? Don’t know.
I think the odds makers are underestimating Noah’s popularity. It just seems to me that he and Sharna have Bill and Emma popularity which makes up for the 7s and occasional 8s from the judges. The one thing Noah does *not* have going for him that Bill did is obnoxious judging. The Stooges are always respectful to Noah. While it might be odd to see that as a hindrance, I do think general viewers were so disgusted at how blatant the Stooges were about trying to get rid of Bill. They’re not being goaded the same way this season when it comes to Noah.
Anyway, long story short, I can see him finishing 4th.
Oh rats, since I was talking about both Riker and Noah, I should clarify, the “him” in my last sentence is Noah. Riker should end up in the top 3 (roll the dice for where).
I definitely think Noah has a greater chance than Robert, and I won’t be shocked if he knocks a top contender out of the semis/finals. He’s a wounded soldier with amazing work ethic and chemistry with Sharna. Moreover, he appears vulnerable and real – two of the things that I think really get people motivated to vote. I’m not saying that he’ll be able to overcome insurmountable odds to win – but I do think he’s there longer than Robert and Chris (unless Robert has a stellar week and doesn’t get eliminated).
Until this week, I was convinced that Rumer will win, hoping that Riker might beat her.
But now….I actually think that Derek and Nastia’s unfortunate situation could help her win. His unjury will cause the drama in their package, which might overshadow the “non connection” propaganda for once. Maybe people will see how great their partnership is, finally. No worry about Sasha, he’s not Henry and he won’t let them down as a couple, even if he’s dancing with Nastia instead of Derek. And maybe, some people who can’t stay the fact that Derek has won so many times decide to vote for her just because of Sasha. And Derek’s fans will keep on voting no matter who will be her partner now.
Fig I wash thinking the same thin about Noah. It would it surprise me if he came in 4th.
Although it’s way way way premature, I kind of wonder who would get the pro credit if Nastia goes on to win dancing with Sasha, since it’s a three-person team, although Derek is choreographing. Maybe both? 🙂
Yikes. I WAS …….THING. sorry for the poor typing.
I actually think Derek’s injury could completely unhinge the no connection/lack of partnership propaganda TPTB have been trying to make stick. Here they have been trying to make it seem like their connection is less than the other pairs and that Nastia is dependent on multiple pros.
Now Derek is injured and where is he? Not at home resting or back in NYC working with his NYSS trainers or worrying about that show but he’s in the studio with Nastia as she works with Sasha, choreographing and being with his partner. To me that shows the complete opposite of the agenda that the show has been trying to push. It’s pretty hard to say Derek is not 100% in with his partnership to Nastia when his actions show that his main concern is her, not his injury or his very important and major role in NYC. A majority of N/D’s very edited packages have been centered around Derek’s commitment to his NYC show and making it seem as if he fits Nastia in and rushes through his time with her and yet here he is hobbling in on a crutch to be with her instead of worrying about himself or NYSS. It will be kind of hard for TPTB to edit around that to fit their packages.
At this point I think it is really difficult to determine who will win. The scores are very close and there really hasn’t been one couple who has consistently stayed at the top. For me Rumer has lost her sparkle. Her dances seem to blend together. Riker’s dances seem to be a little out of control at times. I think the strongest and most consistent are Nastia, Willow and Noah. For me the top 4 are Nastia, Willow, Noah and Riker.
Nastia is #1…
Even though Derek is not dancing with Nastia this Monday week 7, he will still be doing the choreography no doubt. I like Sasha, and glad that he is working with and will be dancing with Nastia. I know it must be a little difficult for her as Sasha will be guy #3 who she has practiced with and most celebs have the same Pro dancer all season. Nevertheless, I have faith in her that she will rise above the situation and show her fans and the judges that she is a true champion. She is beautiful and a fantastic dancer and is at the top of my list.
Willow is #2…
I love her dedication and attitude and Mark is doing a great job, although this past Monday I agree with others, she got lost in the woodwork, but she did, however, shine in Team YOLO. Willow seems to have bent knees when the seem to me they should be straight at times. I think she will do great in the Futuristic Jazz dance this Monday.
Riker is 3rd for me…
I think he is a good dancer, his timing is spot on; but there is something strange with his legs and his hands. And, Allison is a great dancer, but not sure if she can choreograph good Ballroom styles. (I did like their A.T.) Seems like she is good with the fast, high energy dances. I am looking forward to their Quickstep especially a 20’s style.
Rumer would be #4… I really think she has potential, but her partner has been focusing on the “sexy” intense and mostly black outfits, and some of their dances do not seem like what they should like their as the Foxtrot had more Contemporary/Tango in it, as did their Waltz. They have 60’s Jive and that may work out to show a different side of Rumer.
Noah would be next #5… as I think he has the hearts of many viewers, especially his fellow brother/sister comrades. He has been such a big inspiration and still brings tears to my eyes. If their was a “runner-up” prize, I would want Noah to receive it for his bravery in stepping up and trying to do something that some people with all their limbs hands and feet do not have the boldness to put themselves to the test.
Robert is #6 for me, and I hope he stays around longer. His timing may get a little off, but he and Kym are so much fun to watch. Looking forward to their A.T. Monday. I think he will do much better with his timing.
Chris is last #6…
He did a little better last Monday, but Witney is covering a lot for him, and the competition is going to get tougher and with 2 dances to learn now, I just don’t think he has what it takes. No natural ability, and I just don’t see him getting any better. I think he needs to take his Whitney and go back home to his farm, if he is eliminated this Monday.
I have no idea what everyone is getting for viewer votes, but those who get jeopardy often, makes me think they will be going in the near future.
KKat, that is exactly how I’d rank them too right now.
My gut feeling is that Noah is doing well in votes and will survive the next regular and the following week’s double eliminations. Thinking Riker or Willow will be the big surprise elimination.
I had been thinking the same thing,#Michelle. I think Derek’s injury has completely changed things and Nastia’s winning would not just be another MB for him( which some people think is a bad thing) but it would be her perserverance through changed partners, choreographic challenges etc. i think tptb might be wondering about the success of their chosen one now. She will set herself apart with all she has had to deal with and yet will no doubt nail her routine on Monday. The collaborative aspect of Derek creating the choreo and working with Nastia and Sasha is unique and sets them aopart too. Making lemonaide out of lemons I think.
I don’t think they would have much choice but to include both Derek and Sasha. Derek never left, Sasha’s role just got bigger.
Really, DWTSFan – you can always understand the pattern of the season?? Better than the rest of us? That’s funny, cuz you predicted Suzanne would be eliminated every single week before she actually was.
@Judy I agree. I know that some of the less….. professional professionals would bitch and moan to the huge detriment of their partner, but if there’s a positive side to this whole injury fiasco (and I think there could be) Derek is just the man to find it. Even in choreography, Derek always does a great job but who knows what Sasha might bring? From memories of season 17 I know he’s good, and I think in this case two heads without ego (one of Derek’s absolute best quality IMO) might well be better than one.
On a completely other topic, I’ve said before that I think they need to allocate Willow and Mark Viennese Waltz with a nice song, maybe Strauss if classical week happens, because they’re more or less goading Mark into the big theatrical productions, and then spewing the “samey” critique that should be saved for Rumer; but after Team Yolo I’d be pissed if Willow didn’t also get to Jive. Honestly her team solo wasn’t as polished as I hoped it’d be, but it made me want her to have a whole week to perfect a Jive. I always seem to talk about Willow in the context of what she will do though, which is a bad place to be unless she can deliver what I reckon she’s capable of. I’m a little scared that she gets her breakthrough and then is eliminated because of the past week not being as good. One of the problems I have with the vote system, although the only people I can think of that it’s sort of happened to so far are Jonathan and Allison last season.
Just rewatched Team YOLO. Willow was better than I remembered, and I see where I got jive from but technically speaking it’s a far cry. My points still mostly stand though.
#29 KKat: I agree completely with your rankings, especially Chris. And Courtney: “Chris the Clydesdale”? That’s the funniest description I’ve read in a long time; I almost fell over laughing! Thank you for that – it was hilarious!!! And true!!!
ON the Choreo issue – it actually doubles Derek’s chance for an Emmy nomination. 🙂 Solo nom for weeks one through 5 and last season, and a separate nom for him and Sasha as a team. This is what you call a “bright side”. 🙂
I don’t think Derek is planning on dancing this monday. He said himself he has a busy year ahead and can’t afford to screw it up. But I would not be at all surprised to see him in Sasha’s role in Bethany’s dance last season where he and Sasha kissed. 🙂 Not that I think there’s going to be a kiss, but him playing the troupe part without actual dancing.
I was thinking the same thing PH. What caught my eye was the pic Sasha posted with the three of them sitting side by side in chairs with that caption “all aboard”. It just gave me the vibe that in someway Derek is going to be on that floor with Nastia.
Speaking of Emmy nominations for Derek, Princess H, I’d like to list mine:
Solo Body of Work (From Seasons 19 and 20 up to week 5)- a combination of the following:
1. Singing In The Rain Jazz
2. Halloween Paso Doble/I Love Lucy Salsa
3. Bethany’s Freestyle
4. Nastia’s AT
5. Love Is An Open Door Jazz
6. Nastia’s Tango/Rumba
🙂
As much as I love Nastia & Derek, I’m actually hoping for Allison & Riker to win this. Although Riker is probably one of the biggest celeb ringers yet, I think it’s a fair trade considering how weak Allison is in ballroom compared to the other pros. And I’ll love to see Val’s face. And what he’ll do if he comes back next season. Frankly, I’m alright with ANYBODY winning this competition if it’s not Val. Rumer’s seems to be a really nice person, and she dances pretty well, shame she got stuck in this situation.
Bovida has posted new odds, first time I have seen this happen during a week. Rumer now 2/1 with Riker at 9/2 and willow now 7/1. Nastia unchanged with,or without Derek.
I haven’t commented at all this season partly coz I’ve been so busy and the tptb nonsense has been driving me nuts plus the judges overly harsh critiques of Nastia but I had to comment now coz I think Noah just killed that dance!! Sharna’s choreo was so good! I was cheering so hard from my couch! Lol
So sorry. I’m on my phone and didn’t realize I’d switched posts.