DWTS Season 20, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers
This is very likely a pointless exercise since they’re going to add a ton more points on Monday night, but I thought I would put it out here for discussion.
Right now there is a pretty decent spread between our two bottom dwellers on the leader board, enough that they might actually go home in the double elimination.
Right now, Robert and Chris would have a lot of work to do in order to stick around. Now, despite Willow being eliminated, I tend to think they might actually go home this week. What people forget is that it’s not just Robert and Chris getting votes, but perhaps Willow NOT getting the votes. How bad is it?
Note that Robert and Chris need close to 24k votes per million votes cast for either Noah or Rumer (or both) to be eliminated in their place. Conversely, last week, there was less than 16k votes between the high vote getter (Riker) and the low vote getter (Robert). For Willow to be eliminated, ALL of the following had to happen:
- Robert gets 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Noah gets 8,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Chris gets 5,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Rumer gets 6,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Willow DOESN’T get the one vote needed to beat Nastia, AND;
- Willow DOESN’T get the 5,350 votes per million votes cast to beat Riker.
Compared to the 24k votes Robert and Chris need to be safe, those numbers are SMALL. Very small.
Anyway, I tend to believe that Robert and Chris would be eliminated this coming week if there were only one weeks worth of dances to worry about.
But there’s not. There’s two more dances coming up. So let’s take a hypothetical look at what the margins might look like if you add two dances worth of points to the equation. I’m going to follow the same scoring pattern just to keep it simple and ASSUME that Robert and Chris are the two they want to get rid of.
I tend to think it will shake out like this, if only the judges want the top 3 to make it to the end. Keep in mind that I’m not predicting actual scores for the top three or the bottom three – I just think the scoring will be similar to this. It’s going to be Week 8, after all, so there should be a spread like this considering who’s dancing. And if they do follow this program, then you’ll see that the bottom two need a ton of votes to both be safe.
It’s possible that one might escape, but not both. And if one of the escapes, it’s because someone else isn’t getting the votes. I wonder about Rumer, but with these spreads she should be okay.
Okay, that’s all for this week. Not much more to it until we know who gets what on Monday night!
Thank you, Heidi 🙂 I agree with you, I think that Robert and Chris are going to be eliminated this week. If any other scenario happens (hopefully not!), I’m gonna be VERY suprised.
Maybe I would be a little worried about Nastia, because people are either dumb or they are not listening very well and they maybe thought that she has an immunity for this week, so they maybe didn’t vote for her, but she got +3 points and I believe she’s gonna kill it this week, so I think that she’ll be safe 🙂
Yeah it’s gotta be Robert & Chris, plus I think last week was a wake up call for most people who assumed their favorite couple was safe.
Thanks so much, Heidi. Now I am even more convinced Robert and Chris are going home. I just hope there are no more shocking eliminations. I just hate to see the really good dancers eliminated like what we saw last week. It’s so important to VOTE more than ever!!
I think people still assume willow was getting alot of votes..and people shouldnt have assumed that…I think one person who shouldnt be in the finales will probably end up sneaking their way in there..
what also will be interesting is if riker and rumer aren’t getting the votes…we could end up having a strange finale 3
I hope Chris and Rober go home se we have the best of what remains in finale. Also from what I understand from press release last week votes are gonna be combined with upcoming monday votes???
Cam that’s right so everybody has to perform their best on Monday
Without the added scores from Monday’s dances, Chris and Robert are obviously in the chopping block. I would be okay with that. I wouldn’t have it another way. I do hope your hypothetical analysis is what we’ll see on Monday, Princess H. Regarding Willow, such a shame she wasn’t able to muster the votes needed to stay.
For some reason the elimination of both Robert and Chris is too obvious for me. I really think the producers have another shocking elimination up their sleeve. I have a feeling that may be Robert will get through and either Rumer, Riker or possibly Nastia will be eliminated. We shall see what happens.
LeannC that´s what I´m little bit woried about…
I know I am in the minority here, but I want Riker to win. I didn’t have a clue who he was or who was R5 (not quite their demographic) before the start of the season, but now I am a big fan. I think he is wonderfully talented and he seems to be having so much fun, which I see when he is dancing. To me, he shows such joy and effervescence when he is dancing. I enjoy the expressions on his face and the sweet way he partners with Allison. The faces from last weeks’s QS were darling and the sweet way he touched her face in the foxtrot….just endearing to me. I think Allison is so much like Witney was last year, being able to choreograph (help or not) creative dances for a very naturally gifted (and trained) dancer that showcase her partner and all the while appearing to enjoy each other and the dance.
Don’t call me a Nastia hater….she is extraordinary and the dance last week and her tango a few weeks before were just perfection. Her positions and posture are gorgeous, she is beautiful, and she looks great with Derek, but just don’t see the joy in her that I see in Riker. I don’t want Riker to go home. I am all in for Riker! I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed for a very good night of dancing and fair judging. And if Nastia wins, I’ll be cheering and clapping…
That’s what I was wondering is that they didn’t do their whole “not necessarily the bottom two” spiel, plus they trotted out Bruce and showed Rumer getting whiplash, etc seemed like they were making a push to vote for her specifically. Noah and Chris seem to have power voting armies and Robert has the showmance, Val hasn’t really let Rumer stand out.
I think Riker is okay moreso because they really really want to push Allison as “look how much better SHE’S gotten” kind of thing.
I think we won’t have shocking elimination this week.
The key is next week. Noah might have the voting force to enter the final.
Monday’s results will be important.
Doe anyone know will the week’s score be counted to next week? Or is it only counted to Tuesday’s elimination?
With both last weeks/this weeks scores and votes counted towards the double elimination on Tuesday everything will depend on Mondays performances and how big the spreads are. I’m not discounting a shocking elimination because I’ve been watching the show too long. It will be really interesting on Monday!! Nothing is set quite yet
Yes, last week with Rumer and Val was interesting to me. No speech about not necessarily being the bottom two plus the emphasis on voting. Didn’t Erin read their number twice, too? It could have just been for dramatic effect, but there really seemed to be a push for Rumer that night. It also seems she has been set up nicely to do well this week. I guess I just wonder how the general audience feels about Rumer. She doesn’t have much of a fanbase of her own, and I wonder how much people really care about Demi and Bruce. I don’t think she’s going home, but I think she might have if the double elimination hadn’t been moved.
PH thanks for the post…..lots to think about for sure.
I can see Robert and Chris going home, but it wouldn’t shock me if Rumer does. I can see Noah, Riker, and Nastia getting more votes than her. After what we saw last week, it doesn’t matter how good you are, if you’re not getting the votes, you’ll go home. Evidently there are more Bachelor fans voting than Hunger Game fans! I have say I wasn’t all that shocked Willow was eliminated, I just thought she had another week in her. I never saw her as having a large fan base, but she was adorable and could dance so I was hoping more people would keep her on. I was wrong.
Personally, I don’t think Rumer’s fans are voting for her because of Bruce or Demi, but because they like her and empathize with her story – awkward kid with low self-esteem, grown into an attractive girl with greater confidence, but still a good deal of vulnerability. So I think she did come in with a pretty small fanbase in comparison to others.
She’s not getting fans from Val’s choreography, either. Sigh. I really wouldn’t mind her winning, but I still think Riker is the top contender right now. We know that may change depending on dance quality and storyboarding, but I do think the producers really hope Rumer makes it to the finals. If it’s a three-person finale though, unless they suddenly come down hard on Noah (which would be like them) I think it’s Riker, Nastia, and Noah.
Thanks, Heidi! Love the numbers post, as always! Hope you are feeling better. BTW, aren’t you suppose to be in NY right now??
I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a four-person finale if Rumer isn’t getting enough votes to be in the top three. Can you say manipulation? 🙂
Thank you so much PH for posting this one, I have to say this is my favorite post of the week.. One just can’t argue with numbers!
I think Packages this week will reveal a lot more about the producers intentions. I mean, Rumer basically got two last monday so might be in need of more votes than her fans assumed.
Even if Robert and Chris go this week I hope Rumer goes next. I think Nastia, Riker and Noah make a good diverse final: the good capable dancer, the performance driven dancer and the inspiring journey (and tbh I’m really looking forward to these3 freestyles). But It looks like they are pushing the Rumer vs Nastia at all costs.
What makes you think I’m not in NYC? 🙂
Just got here actually.
If TPTB really think they can get Rumer to the end then she needs a breakthrough this week or she’s gonna fall behind. I’m still expecting Noah to bump one of the big three out the final and right now it’s hard to argue against her being the favourite to lose out. But I think it could easily all change on Monday and again the Monday after. As for this week, anything other than two members of the ABC familia departing the ballroom would be a disgrace!
I look forward to this post every week. I hope it is Riker and Nastia in the finals. I really don’t care who else joins them. I love Robert but really don’t think he will make it. I really hope Chris is gone this week so we are not watching his “Clydesdale” moves as Court would say.
Have fun in NYC Ms. Heidi. It is one of my favorite places to visit even if Derek is only there in pictures.
Yes, Heidi, have fun in the city that never sleeps! Enjoy Kinky Boots and the Spring Spectacular. It will be interesting to hear your perspective on S.S. compared to the last time you saw it. 🙂
LOL Heidi! Thanks for checking in!! I’m enjoying your updates at twitter!
Chris better be one leaving, he’s over stayed his welcome. The second will probably by Robert, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if it was Rumer.
PH, hope you’re fully recovered so you can enjoy your trip to NYC.
Thanks for the numbers. Great as always. With all the uncertainty TPTB have thrown into the mix for this double-elim, I’ve basically thrown in the towel on predicting anything. I’ll just be grateful as hell as long as Nastia stays and Chris goes.
#10 VB–right there with you on all points! At first I wasn’t on board with him becauseof Allison but he has just won me over anyway–stuck with my original MO—choose by the celeb not by the pro. Which works better since then you can still appreciate the other pro’s work/creativity.
My wish for Robert was 5th, so if he were to go this week, I’m hoping he’ll be the second one to be eliminated since that means he’ll be 5th lol. I won’t mind if Noah is eliminated instead. It’s official, I couldn’t connect to him so why bother, and he was overscored (for me he was). Not that Robert wasn’t scored accordingly either, but I’m hoping Robert fanbase would pull him out. I’m happy he made it this far though.
Some part of me want Chris to stay around just for the lolz. I wonder what kind of Freestyle Witney would pull off, perhaps Chris will sit on his arse the whole time while Witney give him a lap dance? Lol. But Witney is smart so if he were to go through I think she’ll do something. By the way, will there still be 4 people in the finals this time? I haven’t really following the updates lately.
Well, yet again, I am awed by Miss Heidi’s brilliant, analytical mind. Thank you, Miss Heidi, your numbers posts are truly impressive.
Although I agree that probably Robert & Chris will be eliminated, I wouldn’t be disappointed if either Rumer or Noah left. I hope that Chris definitely leaves. I actually think it would be a fun final with Riker, Nastia and Robert. Why Robert? Well, he is kind of another Bill Engvall. For sure he can’t really dance but I love watching how hard he tries and really love watching Kym dance, so I guess I want Robert to stay so I can watch Kym dance some more, ha ha, crazy, I know. I am hoping Nastia wins the golden orb. She dances like a dream, and her fun personality is really opening up.
I think Noah’s hero status and Robert’s “senior” showmance will get both of them into the final 3, leaving room for only one of the “top three”. I think Riker is in the greatest danger, with Nastia having a slightly better chance than Rumer of making it to the finals.
Yeesh, KarenT, I hope your prediction for the final 3 doesn’t come true. As much as I admire Noah and love Robert’s enthusiasm, it would be a new low for the general viewers if they put both of these guys into the final over Nastia, Riker, and Rumer. I have very little faith in the DWTS audiences’ intelligence, but surely they won’t be that stupid!
Noah and Robert have done amazingly well. They’ve far exceeded any expectations I had for them, and it’s been a pleasure to share their journeys. However, when we get to the finals, I want to see the best dancers left in the show. I might not like all of them, but I still want to see the ones with the best dance skills compete for the MBT.
I THINK Chris and Robert will be going home this week. But i wish somehow Noah is eliminated and Robert gets to stay …i love his partnership with Kym.
But i don’t think that’ll happen 🙁
I just had a thought, and figured this was the best place to put it. Wasn’t there some talk about the judges going to the rehearsals, or helping with a dance or something? I’m wondering if that’s what they’re doing for the semifinals and that’s why there’s a double elimination so there’s 4 left for the judges.
I think Noah, Robert, and Nastia have had the most honest story lines of the people remaining. Even though Nastia is a gymnast, I feel that these 3 have come in with zero dance traninhg, and nothing to hide. I can’t get behind people who lie by omission and Riker and Rumer feel inauthentic to me.
For me I could care less who can dance the best.
I agree with Cidra. Best dancers deserve to stay. I want the final three to be Riker, Nastia and Rumer. It’d be fun to watch them go head to head.
Noah, Robert and Nastia? That’d be a boring finale. They need to at least put 2 top dancers in the final three. I think Noah has a chance to squeeze in.
Thanks, Seaweed, but just to be clear, I didn’t say the best dancers “deserve” to stay. I said “I want” the ones with the best dance skills in the finals but I don’t have faith that the voters will see things my way.
I disagree that a Noah, Robert, Nastia finale would be boring. I like all three of those couples. I’m sure Sharna and Kym would create very entertaining freestyles; the dance-quality would just be diluted.
Personally I want either Chris, Robert or Nastia to go and I had to choose one whom would survive i would have chosen Chris or Robert. Nastia uses to must of Gymnastics movements in her dances and in her paso as well.. Gymnastics is tots different from ballroom dancing..
Chris has gotten alot better this past few weeks and I can truefully say I didn´t like him in the beginning. For Robert´s sake i only want to see more of him and Kym. They are tots adorable. But I can´t really connect with Nasita and i didn´t think she deserved those high scores that she got last week….. I focused more on Derek in the background which was distracting… I don´t know about you guys, but i Think two of those three will go tomorrow..
@Sunny You honestly think Nastia is the WORST dancer? Val? Is that you? I’m gonna go ahead and assume “to must of Gymnastics movements” means “too many gymnastic movements.” To that, I say IT’S FREAKING CHARLESTON! Last week was really the only time Nastia included any sort of gymnastics, and the style 100% suited it. In something like a Foxtrot, of course there are no gymnastics, but Charleston is perfect to show off what she can do, and even then I’ve seen so much worse. I think Nastia is the least likely to go tomorrow night in pretty much every way. Not only is she currently 3 points ahead of the rest of the pack, she’s the only person left who’s never found herself in jeopardy, and I believe the only one not last called safe (can I get a factcheck on whether Noah has been?) I know neither is far from the be-all and end-all, but I see no indication she might be anywhere near in trouble.
I almost choked when reading @Sunny’s post. Girlfriend you need to get yourself some glasses if you think Nastia’s the worst dancer. Sounds like someone’s just nervous that she’s an immediate thread to your favorite.
Tina, I agree.
@Sunny – Thank you. I needed a good belly laugh today.
Come on guys, if it sounds like a troll and smells like a troll…it’s a troll.
You’re so “tots” spot on PH 😉
From yesterday’s points added in, there’s such a divide between the top and bottom 3, I think it has to be Chris, Noah, and/or Robert going home. It seems like the bottom 3 will have get way over 30,000 more votes per million to catch up. It’s a rough estimate, I’ll wait for a more accurate one from PH.
From yesterday’s points added in, there’s such a divide between the top and bottom 3, I think it has to be Chris, Noah, and/or Robert going home. It seems like the bottom 3 will have to get way over 30,000 more votes per million to catch up. It’s a rough estimate, I’ll wait for a more accurate one from PH.
Yeah, PH’s predictions were right-on. I did some quick calculations last night; I think that roughly 3K votes per million separate Robert from Chris, 8,800 votes per mil between Chris and Noah, then the margins go sky-high (around 30K, like Ananya said, plus Nastia still holds immunity).
So, it looks to me like it’s “Pick two: Noah, Robert, Chris”. I pick Chris and Robert… 😉
Nastia doesn’t hold immunity anymore, that was for last week and last week only. Saying that I don’t think she’s in any danger this week. Next week is a different story though.
No, Sally, Nastia doesn’t still hold immunity.
And this is why I worry about her being eliminated.
So they gave out immunity for a week where no one went home?!?!?!?!?!?!? WTF??????? This is one of THE most screwed-up goat-rodeos I’ve ever seen!
Sally, Willow went home. Presumably had Willow gotten immunity last week, the next-lowest total couple would have been eliminated.
Sally, you said it. It doesn’t make a bit of sense.
I might be a little bit confused, but didn’t the immunity count for LAST week, where someone went home? So Nastia’s immunity counted for last week, and then not this week. That’s still a week where someone went home, right?
Yes, as I mentioned a few posts up – Willow got eliminated. If Willow had gotten immunity, she would have still been here and whoever the next-lowest score/vote getter would have gone home. So theoretically, if Nastia was lower than Willow (I’m sure she wasn’t, but for argument’s sake) she was saved from elimination last week. But none of that applied to this week’s dances or eliminations.
Er….Willow went home.
Oh yeah… sorry for the noise. I guess it’s FINALLY time to get my meds adjusted 🙁 🙂