DWTS Season 20, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

This is very likely a pointless exercise since they’re going to add a ton more points on Monday night, but I thought I would put it out here for discussion.

Right now there is a pretty decent spread between our two bottom dwellers on the leader board, enough that they might actually go home in the double elimination.

DWTS 20 wk 7 Table 1

Right now, Robert and Chris would have a lot of work to do in order to stick around. Now, despite Willow being eliminated, I tend to think they might actually go home this week. What people forget is that it’s not just Robert and Chris getting votes, but perhaps Willow NOT getting the votes.  How bad is it?

DWTS 20 wk 7 Table 2

Note that Robert and Chris need close to 24k votes per million votes cast for either Noah or Rumer (or both) to be eliminated in their place. Conversely, last week, there was less than 16k votes between the high vote getter (Riker) and the low vote getter (Robert).  For Willow to be eliminated, ALL of the following had to happen:

  • Robert gets 10,650 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Noah gets 8,900 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Chris gets 5,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Rumer gets 6,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Willow DOESN’T get the one vote needed to beat Nastia, AND;
  • Willow DOESN’T get the 5,350 votes per million votes cast to beat Riker.

Compared to the 24k votes Robert and Chris need to be safe, those numbers are SMALL. Very small.

Anyway, I tend to believe that Robert and Chris would be eliminated this coming week if there were only one weeks worth of dances to worry about.

But there’s not. There’s two more dances coming up. So let’s take a hypothetical look at what the margins might look like if you add two dances worth of points to the equation. I’m going to follow the same scoring pattern just to keep it simple and ASSUME that Robert and Chris are the two they want to get rid of.

DWTS 20 wk 7 Table 3

I tend to think it will shake out like this, if only the judges want the top 3 to make it to the end. Keep in mind that I’m not predicting actual scores for the top three or the bottom three – I just think the scoring will be similar to this. It’s going to be Week 8, after all, so there should be a spread like this considering who’s dancing. And if they do follow this program, then you’ll see that the bottom two need a ton of votes to both be safe.

DWTS 20 wk 7 Table 4

It’s possible that one might escape, but not both. And if one of the escapes, it’s because someone else isn’t getting the votes. I wonder about Rumer, but with these spreads she should be okay.

Okay, that’s all for this week. Not much more to it until we know who gets what on Monday night!