DWTS Season 20, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, like I predicted last week, the judges made a clear difference between the top three and the bottom two, with Noah hovering somewhere in the middle. This should be a slam dunk for the top three, but I heard something that made me wonder. Tom was very clear that everyone should make note of Rumer’s number and make sure they were dialing it right. “Check that number and dial carefully.” Interesting.
Anyway, let’s look at the leaderboard weeks 7 and 8.
As you can see, there is a nice spread between the upper tier and the lower tier. Frankly, if anyone in the top three goes home, they just weren’t getting the votes and that’s the way it works. If anyone is shocking, I suspect Rumer, for reasons stated above. But I’m thinking they’ve protected her enough. Robert is our low scorer let’s see what he has to do to be safe.
Now, he actually has to do better than TWO people, not just one, because it’s a double elimination. Honestly, I have a hard time believing that he’s doing it. I mean, who is he going to beat?? Chris? Well that ain’t enough. Noah? I have a hard time believing that he’s getting the 12k votes per million votes cast to beat him, but I could be wrong. Here’s what Robert needs to be safe. He needs TWO of the following things to happen:
- Robert needs to get 3,000 more votes per million votes cast than Chris, And/or;
- Robert needs to get 12,000 more votes per million votes cast than Noah, AND/OR;
- Robert needs to get 32,500 more votes per million votes cast than Riker, AND/OR;
- Robert needs to get 35,500 more votes per million votes cast than either Nastia or Rumer.
Now you see why I think it’s likely he goes home tomorrow night? But I jump ahead. That’s Robert – and as much as I like him I can see him maybe beating Chris, but not Chris AND Noah. While I think Rumer may have been in trouble last week, surely this is a big enough margin for her to be safe, right?
I dunno. That brings us to Chris. What does he need to be safe. Well, see below.
Nearly 10k to get past Noah, close to 30k to beat Riker and 33k to beat either Nastia or Rumer. I don’t see any of these things happening. At best, if he’s safe it’s because Robert couldn’t beat him and he’s actually beating Noah.
At the end of the day, I think Nastia gets the one vote to beat Rumer, and I have to wonder if Riker is beating both women. Anyway, I think that Nastia and Riker are safe. I’m leaning toward Noah being safe as well. What does he need? Well, the best thing would be for neither Chris nor Robert covering the spread. If they do, here’s what Noah needs:
Essentially, he needs well more than 20k votes per million votes cast to beat Riker, Rumer or Nastia. I honestly have NO IDEA how he’s doing in terms of votes. None at all. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robert beat him tomorrow…but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the final. We’ll have to wait and see.
My gut says that tomorrow is when we see the last of Robert and Chris, but I have to say that the harping two weeks in a row on Rumer’s phone number is making me wonder if she’s not getting the votes…not to mention her being in jeopardy last week. What would have to happen for Rumer to be eliminated?? All but one of the following (since it’s a double elimination):
- Robert would have to get 35.5k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Chris would have to get 32.5k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Noah would have to get 23.7k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Riker would have to get 3,000 more votes per millon votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Nastia would have to get 1 more vote per million votes cast than Rumer.
Those are pretty serious (but not unheard of) numbers for Robert, Chris and Noah to get in order for Rumer to go home. Same goes for Nastia, since she’s tied with Rumer. It’s slightly dangerous because I think that Nastia and Riker are doing it, and if Noah is also killing it in votes then that means that only one of Chris or Robert has to beat her for her to go home.
I don’t really think it’s going to happen, but some of the word selection by Erin and Tom makes one wonder.
So, my bottom three is Robert, Chris and Noah, with Robert and Chris going home. But honestly, nothing would shock me at this point except Riker and Nastia – and only then because TPTB haven’t been acting slightly desperate about either of them. Which will be really telling if one of them is eliminated.
Thanks PH! I heard the constant talk the past two weeks about Rumor’s number too and I was wondering if since her number ends in 5610 if people were maybe dialing 5601 so that is why Erin was harping on her number so much- who knows just a theory.
I agree my picks for going home are Robert and Chris, I would be shocked otherwise.
What I’m really interested in is next week because Riker is the James Maslow (in my opinion) this season so it will be interesting so see if he can make it to the final or if the young fan base fails him.
I do think that Rumer may not have been getting the votes before, but after last night’s tongue-bathing, the constant reminders by both Tom AND Erin about her phone number, the jeopardy, and that “Val” package makes me think she’ll squeak by this week. But who knows – I wouldn’t mind her staying, but not if we’re going to be subjected to such blatant overscoring.
Last night when Carrie Ann said something to Nastia about the double elimination and then Erin followed up and asked her a question about it too, it gave me a bad feeling. I really don’t think she’s in any danger but it wouldn’t surprise me if they “put her in jeopardy”.
It also pissed me off last night when I saw some a-hole saying Vote and put Val & Rumer’s number on Derek’s Instagram. By the time I saw it, it was too late to correct it, but hopefully people didn’t fall for it.
The pimpage continued on GMA this morning with Robin going on & on about Rumer and Val and they’re the ones to beat. Normally, I can’t stand Melissa R but the fact that she said something nice about Nastia and Derek, raised her about 10 points in my book.
I am so done with this show and all the manipulation. I really can’t stand it any longer and I hope this is Derek’s last season. He’s too good for this crap.
I agree that this time it has to be Robert and Chris. Robert could not be more screwed, if he stays I’d be beyond stunned, and Chris himself would admit that he’s done. That ought to leave Riker, Nastia, Rumer and Noah for the semi-final, and it’s suddenly open season. Riker’s vote must have been helped immensely by Willow’s elimination, so I’m not that worried for him any more, and Nastia’s barely broken a sweat making it through each week. The key questions are, will they shield Rumer with another 80 and will Noah stay as far behind as he was this week (17 points behind Rumer last night?) I suspect we’re set for a predictable final, but Noah and Sharna could be just the people to pull out a surprise.
I just wanted to check in and say I love these posts so much. I look forward to it each week. Thank you.
I wonder, Meghan, if that’s the rationale the producers use when looking at Rumer’s votes. “Oh, people are just mixing up the numbers” instead of “Man, people just aren’t voting for Rumer.” I wonder.
The thing about the constant OTT praise and fawning is that it leads the audience to believe that person is in no danger at all and may result in a lack of votes. It really could backfire in a big way. I think that’s a small measure of why Shawn didn’t win S15 (along with a lot of other reasons). If the votes really are close, that fawning could cause a win by Riker or Nastia when their fans vote their asses off.
People can mix up ANYONE’S number! IMHO they are being singled out for a reason.
Another stellar post PH. Thanks shun for the number crunching.
Side note- hubs has a degree in geology as well…..
That’s the way I feel Fig — the OTT praise has actually made me root AGAINST Rumer when at the start of the season I actually liked her and Val enough. After their Foxtrot in my head I told myself they were probably winning and I was okay with that because it would finally get them to shut up about Val not winning and she actually has talent (unlike Janel last season). As soon as Len said it was Val’s season to win though it all went downhill.
I do think the audience will buy into everything the judges were spewing last night if nothing else to get her to the semis. I’m interested to see how much they care after her after that though.
Fascinating as always, Miss Heidi! I have to wonder if Rumer is getting votes too.
Lord people. I fast forwarded through most of the judges’ comments last night and the skybox chat with Erin. Now I may have to watch all the pimping as soon as I get home tonight. I have never had multiple voting accounts. However, this summer I floated into the deep end of the pool and did just that. I hope VAL is the surprise elim tonight, and I hope TPTB and the judges get the message. Spreading a RUMOR about VAL that it’s his season is unprofessional. Screw ’em.
So let’s see if Val does get it this year, who will be next…LADIES TURN–Emma or Allison? Then the guys turn again–Artem? Keo? Sasha?
This little “fringe” show is driving me nuts due to all the manipulation.
#4, I am not sure I get the correlation between Willow being gone and Riker getting more votes because of it. I love Willow and can not stand Riker. Willow is a movie star and Riker is (I guess) a singer, not that I have ever heard any of his music. I guess I just do not get that their fan bases would over lap at all.
I agree that it’s between Chris, Noah and Robert… At this moment I think I’d say that Chris might make it through to next week leaving Robert and Noah to be eliminated tonight. I would prefer if Chris went home though.
The only thing that worries be about Nastia/Derek/Sasha is the package the producers showed last night. I hope it didn’t hurt them too much in the voting.
I love these posts too and can’t wait for them every week. I so hope the predictions are right. Numbers don’t lie unless they’re DWTS numbers.
The one thing that makes me wonder about Riker is not only his younger fan base but also that he’s been in jeopardy 3 times and was last to be called safe once, not of course that it has to mean anything. There aint no cure for DWTS logic.
From the grassy knoll perspective, they’re doing everything but voodoo to get Rumer to the finals and I can’t imagine their allowing her and Val Agonistes to be the shocking elimination.
What I care about most is that the best dancers will be in the finals. Or at least, that truly bad dancers will not be. So I’m hoping Chris and Robert will actually go and not cause us to lose another good dancer.
@MelissaC I agree, I was giving all my votes to Willow and disliked Riker (although I don’t mind him as much now) but there seems to be a young demographic that’s a fan of both and had to choose/split, and once Willow leaves her voters choose who get them instead. I suspect a lot of these people will now support Riker.
@MelissaC is very possible that Willow and Riker main fanbases overlap because they basically fall in the same demographic. (Mostly young girls that have been following them before DWTS and liked his music and The Hunger Games)
They might not share the occasional voters or people who first heard of them on DWTS, but their main voting forces were probably the same demo splitting votes, with Willow gone is very possible some of her voters go to Riker. (If they actually vote)
I just saw Tom Bergeron’s tweet “Some difficult goodbyes ahead”. Makes me wonder… tonight we’ll get a better idea of who is getting (or not getting) the votes.
I just hope is Robert and Chris but we never know
Oh, that sounds….. Ominous. I guess top 6 any goodbye is difficult within the family of the show, but for some reason that makes me fear for Noah
Would Chris be an emotional goodbye? No, but Robert would be and Rumer would be. Noah as well……
I’m a little nervous… As long as Team Houghkin are safe, I’m good. Rooting for them all the way!
Love this post. Makes sense that Chris and Robert are likely but I am curious why they pulled on the points for Rumer last night including frequently mentioning her number. Did the judges save her? I think they likely did.
Goodness I need to read before I post.,
I think Robert and Chris are likely leaving tonight only due to the judges saving Rumer with a perfect score.
Always a pleasure to read these posts are. How you managed to turn this out in double quick time amazes me Well done Heidi *applauds*
Well 10 minutes into the results show and all we have scene is Val/Rumer. Let the OTT pimping continue in spades.
And they are safe. Big surprise.
Massive MASSIVE Val and Rumer pimp show to start the results show. Nice. Only not at all.
So they’re gonna keep it classic let’s see how that works out for them ????
Years of practice and little sleep, Nathan. 🙂
So this means either Nastia or Riker will have to be in jeopardy with Chris. Please no surprises.
The margins are so huge it shouldn’t be possible Chris and Noah both survive, so it looks like Chris is going with Robert. Not to be unkind, but finally!
Young people tend to have YOUNG fanbases. There tends to be a lot of cross over, regardless of their genre. They also tend to not vote as much.
Geologists rock. Pun intended. 😀
That was not a result show, that was an infosnoozemercial for Val/Rumer.
Goodbye Robert, hate to see you go. Love how you avoided Tom & Erin’s push for an announcement regarding a relationship with Kym. But hey, give her that Ferrari anyways. WOO HOO
Be interesting to see where the Chris/Robert voters will turn up. For me, I’m jumping into the deepest end of that gene pool and voting for Derek and Nastia.
I totally agree that Derek has outgrown this show and needs to move on.