DWTS Season 21, Week FOUR – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, another interesting week on DWTS. Really, I don’t have too many complaints beside CAI’s shocking blindness to the lifts that were happening. She really does seem to only see them when Derek does them, and not when other pros let them happen.  But, this shouldn’t surprise me – I was talking tonight over margaritas about what the producers might do to prevent Bindi winning. My friends think Bindi is a sure thing – but they aren’t online and don’t really pay close attention to the show. I think Bindi has to overcome the “everyone gets a trophy” cabal, and that’s no small thing.

I do think it’s going to come down to Bindi, Alek and Nick. I think Hayes and Tamar are going to fight for fourth place and I gotta say – I’m leaning toward Hayes right now. My friends who aren’t online are extremely impressed with him and not at all impressed with Nick. They also love Alek. It’s very interesting to talk to those who aren’t online (and therefore aren’t contaminated by the BS). They may actually be a bit better at calling the show than I am – but they also show me that the general audience is VERY susceptible to the producer’s subtle manipulations. Actually, after talking to them, I wonder if Nick might get edged out of the Top 3 by either Hayes or Tamar.

Well, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Nick IS a Backstreet Boy, after all.  🙂

Anyway, what happened with the leaderboard? And shout out to Tony Dovolani for his bafflement that Bindi didn’t get a perfect score – dude, you gotta know by now that the judges aren’t scoring based on reality, but based on what week it is and the hidden agenda. It’s all false. Anyway…

Week 4 table 1

Now, Bindi is at the top and there is a three way tie for second place. CAI and Julianne give the same score to Nick, Tamar and Hayes that they do to Bindi. Crack is wack, ya’ll. Tamar and Hayes MAYBE I could forgive, but Nick? No. Sorry, but that dance was a letdown.

Anyway, none of this will likely matter because they are going to combine week 4 with week 5 (the switchup) to eliminate someone in week 6. Now Paula says that Week 6 will feature a double elimination. I say why not? Let’s tighten it up right now. Anyway, no idea if this is true, but we’ll consider it in this post. Despite that there will be a whole bunch of scores on Monday night to change everything that I write here, it helps to look at these scores and required votes and then see what the new scores do – and how much power the judges have.

As the low woman on the totem pole, Paula has the most work to do. Fortunately for her, she has Mark this week and it sounds like they are having a lot of fun (and I’m sure of it). Mark learned how to make fried chicken, ya’ll!! And having a lot of fun is important. I have a lot of confidence that Mark can create a fun dance for Paula. But she has a bit of work to do regardless.

Week 4 table 2

As you can see, if there was an elimination  this coming Monday, Paula would need about 12,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alexa, Mark’s actual partner. And doesn’t that kinda suck? Why this really sucks is that my sense is that Alexa isn’t connecting with the audience – and I think Paula might have a legit chance. Now, I think Alexa seems like a very nice girl, but I think the whole “married couple competing” thing has hurt her chances, for a variety of reasons we’ve discussed here, ad nauseum.  She’s in a tough spot, because Paula is a well-known person with a fanbase.  BUT, at the end of the day, there are a whole other set of scores to be added and I suspect that Alexa will do well with Derek – probably very well – and that will keep her safe for another week. Maybe. If Paula is right about the double elimination, Alexa pretty much needs Andy to score low in order to ensure her safety.

But what about the double elimination? If that is true, then two people leave and that really changes the game. For Paula to be safe, she needs TWO of the following to happen:

  • Paula needs to get 12,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alexa, AND/OR;
  • Paula needs to get 21,200 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, AND/OR;
  • Paula needs to get 25,500 more votes per million votes cast than Alek, AND/OR;
  • Paula needs to get 29,700 more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, AND/OR;
  • And so on…

Now, I don’t think that Alek or Carlos have too much to worry about. In this situation I think it comes down to Paula, Alexa and Andy. IF it is a double, I think Paula may be one of them, but the other eliminated depends heavily on what happens tomorrow night. If Alexa just kills her Tango with Derek, then I think Andy is in danger. But if Alexa doesn’t score significantly above Andy – and Paula does very well with Mark – all bets are off.

Let me guess at Week 5 scores, just to show you what could happen. Now, I think Alexa will do well, and I think Bindi will do well, if for no other reason that the judges don’t want to hurt you-know-who’s reputation. They might even want to pump him up and give Bindi a 30. Fine by me – as Bindi herself said, it’s due to the foundation Derek has laid for 6 weeks and she is Derek’s partner.  So, you have three dancers influenced by Derek and Mark – Paula, Alexa and Bindi. If all three do very well tomorrow, that could spell doom for Andy – and, depending on Paula, it might not be enough to save her. Here are my guesses:

Week 4 table 3

As you can see, I’ve predicted that Alexa will do better, as will Bindi  – the 30 might be pushing it, it just depends on the producers agendas and how strong they are. I think Tamar and Nick will be steady, with Hayes dropping a point and Carlos gaining a point. Alek I’m really not sure about – I think it has the potential to go either way. I’m guessing he kills it on chemistry alone. But this will be the first indication if he’s going to have the latin hip action or not. It may not matter, depending on what the judges are on.  🙂  I think both Andy and Paula are going to benefit tremendously from a partner switch. Nothing against their current partners, just that Sharna is THAT GOOD as is Mark – not to mention that Mark and Paula are having way too much fun.

So let’s say I’m close. What does all this mean for the couples?  Well, there is ten points between Andy and Paula. If it’s not a double elimination, Andy could be safe.

Week 4 table 4

If Paula does a little bit better and Andy does a little bit better, Paula would still need 20k votes per million votes cast to beat him. That’s quite a bit. I honestly don’t know if she’s doing it or not. But if she’s right about the double elimination, she would have to beat TWO people in order to be safe. In other words, she would have to get two of the following:

  • Paula would need roughly 20k votes per million votes cast to beat Andy, AND/OR;
  • Paula would need roughly 23k votes per million votes cast to beat Alexa, AND/OR;
  • Paula would need roughly 27k votes per million votes cast to beat Carlos, AND/OR;
  • Paula would need roughly 29k votes per million votes cast to beat Paula, AND/OR;
  • So on up the leader board.

The big question is if she has it in her to beat two of the Andy/Alexa/Carlos combination. I kinda doubt it, but ALL of them have been in jeopardy and all of them have been hanging in the middle of the pack. If Paula’s dance/package goes like I suspect it will on Monday night, things could get really interesting. Combine that with lower scores than what I’ve guessed for Andy/Alexa/Carlos and it will get real interesting really fast.  I don’t know what to hope for. I don’t want Mark to see another early exit, plus I like Alexa FAR better than her husband.  It’s a conundrum.

So, whether or not Paula is safe, it’s interesting to look at the people directly above her – once you get past Paula, the race tightens up. If Paula does well, and any of the Andy/Alexa/Carlos don’t do as well things could get a bit crazy.

Week 4 table 5

So, Andy only needs roughly 2k to beat Alexa and roughly 6k to beat Carlos, in this scenario. That’s chump change. And Alexa is dancing with Derek, who I’m sure she’ll do quite well with.  I’m not sure this bears any further discussion (from me), because we don’t know what’s going to happen. But just look at how tight those numbers are and think about who’s dancing with who.

Who would you put money on at this point? Who do you think will do better with their switch up partner…and who will do worse?