DWTS Season 21, Week THE FINALE – Dancing by the Numbers
Honestly, the finale Dancing by the Numbers is kinda irrelevant, but there might be someone who wants to read it, so I do it.
As often happens, the judges cop out in the finale and give everyone the same score except for Alek – and really, 9s were fair for him. Do I think all the freestyles were equal?? Hardly. I would rank them 1) Bindi; 2) Alek; 3) Carlos; 4) Nick….but of course the scores don’t reflect that. And of course Nick got a perfect score for a jive that had some problems. :::sigh::: I should be used to this crap by now. The leaderboard?
Now by this point in the season, you all ought to know the story. But just in case you don’t…
What it comes down to is this: if Alek can’t cover the spread, it comes down to whoever gets the most votes – Bindi or Nick.
For Alek to win, he needs BOTH of the following things to happen:
- Alek gets 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nick, AND;
- Alek gets 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.
He has to get BOTH things in order to win. Will he? It’s certainly possible. I would be bummed out by that, since I think Bindi is the better dancer, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
It’s a slightly easier road for both Bindi and Nick. To put it simply, for Nick to win, he needs BOTH of the following things to happen:
- Nick needs for Alek to NOT get the 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Nick needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Bindi.
Same thing, essentially, for Bindi to win. She needs both of the following:
- Bindi needs for Alek to NOT get the 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Bindi needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Nick.
It’s sorta that simple. Of course, they have the relay dance to practice tonight and then perform tomorrow. The question is, is there a point to it?? Or are the judges just going to score Alek lower and equalize Bindi and Nick whether they are equal or not (aka totally abdicating any real judging)?
If they give all of them the same score, the gutless wonders should just sit next season out. Let Len do it all. 😉 Then again, we shouldn’t be shocked – they’ve pulled this stunt many times over the years. Julianne being Derek’s sister just makes it worse. If they rank them, then I expect it will be Bindi, Nick Alek. Will that make a difference? Well, the skeptic in me says that the person who is going to win will be the high scorer in that dance, whether they deserve it or not. Why? Well, the judges like to be right AND/OR they won’t want to be accused of changing the outcome.
Of course, the other option is that one of them just blows away the competition to the point that the relay won’t change the outcome. We’ll have to save most of this discussion for Monday morning quarterbacking. That’s the way it is with a lot of the things that happen on DWTS – patterns and such are obvious once the season is over.
One of the things that happened last night that I don’t recall ever happening before is a change in the running order from one round to the next. So, what was the point to that? Why not just have Bindi go third in both rounds? Why the change? I’m not so sure it benefited Nick to follow Bindi, but going last in the finale has some advantages. It may not matter in weeks 6 through 10, but the finale has a lot of new viewers, typically. Then he was the last guy standing with Carlos – another benefit. It makes one wonder. That’s some mild pimpage there – nothing like the last few seasons, but still.
Okay, enough blather. What’s going to happen?
Well, any of the three could win. What do I think? My gut still says Bindi, but my gut is quivering. 🙂 I’m just not sure. When WAS I sure? Well…with Kellie I was pretty sure. Donny Osmond? Sure. JR? Sure. Kristi? Sure. Hines, Donald, Meryl, Alfonso, Rumer? All sure…or pretty sure.
Here’s the problem. ALL of the conventional wisdom says that Nick should win. That Nick will win. And a large part of my brain still thinks he will win. But Bindi…I don’t know if there’s ever been a contestant like Bindi the Ray of Sunshine. And of course, Alek comes on the show right at a time of global upheaval. These three people make it a very difficult call because all three have a strength: Bindi is the best dancer and the heart of the show; Nick is the ringer, boybander with a huge fanbase; Alek speaks to our patriotism and a good bit of fear transformed to hope.
Which of the three is strongest? I’m still feeling Bindi. But I wouldn’t be shocked if either of the other two take it. I’d be bummed, but not shocked.
I have been thinking back and forth too between Bindi & Nick but my gut says Bindi. I know in the back of my mind that Nick could possibly take it, but I’m feeling pretty confident. Hope it comes true. It’s crazy that they only need 1 vote to beat one another, but I am sure the judges probably knew that and wanted to tie them up and make the fanbases fight for it.
Bindi is gonna win becuse she is just pure and she had the memorable freestyle. I don’t no if I’m the only 1 but after bindi danced I completely zoned out with replaying bindis dance that I completely forgot about nick freestyle lol but I could care less becuse bindi is leaps and bounds ahead of him. If bindi doesn’t win there is soemthing terribly terribly terribly wrong with the world
Cant Wait to see bindi explode into glitter and sparkles when she wins
I think I’d be shocked if Bindi didn’t take it because I have seen people vote for Bindi who are longtime watchers of the show and were so moved by Bindi’s Freestyle that it moved them enough to vote for her.
I wonder too if Nick didn’t go last because of his set for his FS? That would’ve been a LOT of tearing down to do for the stage crew,to clear the floor for Bindi and Derek.
As has been all season…the general public has been cheering on Bindi. She’s a good dancer and a ray of light and love. Even Tony has been affected by Bindi…how could you NOT be? That’s why I think Bindi will win.
Bindi will win. I have been rooting for Bindi and Nick all season. I am not a fan of Aleks dancing though, so I decided to throw all my votes to Nick last night. I hope he can be the runner up. I figured with people power voting here and staying up all night to vote for Bindi… she will have it in the bag. Good job everybody.
Thanks for doing the post PH. Always like knowing your thoughts.
I will be crushed if Nick wins. He so doesn’t deserve it. Bindi and Alek have worked so hard and improved so much, and all Nick has done is BSB moves. I’m sure he’s a nice enough guy, but he really didn’t bring much of anything to the show (for me, at least).
It’s gotta be Bindi …
Holds up hand, yes, I always want to read your numbers post, thanks for fitting it in with such a short turn around. I *think* Bindi will will win, and I think probably they’ve done enough to make sure Nicks fans vote so I think he’ll be second, but I still hope for Alek to take 2nd.
As much as I’m rooting for Nick, I’m 100% sure Bindi’s victory is pretty much written in the stars by now. As stated previously, she has it all: the consistency, the charisma, the emotional backstory, the connection with Derek, the headlines… At this point, it’s inevitable.
PH, as far as the running order goes: Does anyone know when exactly Derek decided to add that photo at the end? I’m thinking if it was a relatively late addition, they may have realized “Yeah, we can’t go from that straight to the elimination.”
I hope that Bindi will win because she deserves it. However Alek had a good season and Nick is good too but he seemed un- likeable. I hated how he said in his package last night ‘It should be a huge production and larger than life. Whatever pro-dancers want to be a part of it, they can be”. As if the pro dancers just casually want to be a part of it? It’s their job!
The only reason I think they switched up the order of Bindi and Nick for the freestyle was because of the production. They maybe needed more time for his set-up or whatever. That’s my guess anyway…
I’m rooting for Nick, but because I want him to come in second at least. I think Bindi will win and I’m okay with it 🙂 – she’s amazing, derek’s amazing. Just excited to see everyone dance tonight.
@Sam – To clarify about the running order last night: as of camera blocking on Sunday, it was always planned that Nick would go last in the freestyle round. It was not a last-minute change. I’m guessing they didn’t want to have to go straight from a tear-jerking performance, right into the elim.
As much as I’m rooting for Nick, Bindi will win. I would be shocked if she didn’t – really shocked. Personally I’m not a fan, but one can’t ignore the support and love she’s getting. It seems like when asked, she’s everyone’s fav. At this point I’m kinda meh about the whole thing.
Btw, your numbers post are always my fav. Thanks for the post PH.
But then what was the point of Bindi going last for the first part? Why didn’t Nick go last in both parts?
@Suzy – Not sure. All I know is that it wasn’t a last minute thing – it was planned from the get-go.
That didn’t stop them from putting Bindi’s Contemporary as the last dance right before an elimination earlier in the season. I still don’t see why they didn’t just have the order stay the same throughout either way though.
Heidi, I can so understand why your torn. I still feel like Bindi is going to win. If she doesn’t, I will just be floored and sad all in one. She is indeed a “Ray of Sunshine”. I love when you call her that.
Great Numbers post. I’m so glad you did it.
Well dang it!!! I felt better about a Bindi win until I read this post. Ha ha. I’m glad you did the post and I totally see where really anything could happen. Ugh. I am going on blind faith that Bindi wins this. I mean she had Tony raving about her, that has to mean something, right? Thanks for the post. I’m a nervous wreck. I can’t remember when I have wanted this for the celebrity so badly. Still praying we are barfing sparkles and confetti tonight. Fingers crossed.
Haha Cheryl, I had the same thought once I read the post, but then I just keep thinking that with the way she’s impacted us and drew us in to her infectious and positive personality that I can’t see anyone else but her taking it. I will be absolutely devastated if she doesn’t.
PH aren’t they getting points from the fusion dances as well? If the votes are close that might determine the winner. I don’t want to be too optimistic because I will be heartbroken if Bindi loses. I can see any three of them winning to be honest.
My biggest concern, particularly with Bindi and Nick tied is will the judges play fair or attempt to get the outcome the producers want (or at least did want) meaning Nick as champ and Sharna going on the DWTS tour? Keeping my fingers crossed for Bindi to burst into confetti when she wins!
Derek is the undisputed king of fusion dances. Lately it’s been confined to this 24 hour challenge instead of a regular dance during the season, but his fusions are masterful. Bindi has Argentine tango/cha cha fusion and I cannot wait to see what Derek does with that. Guarantee it will be fabulous. Nick, poor lad, has tango/salsa. It could be a real hot mess. As opposed to last night, I don’t think the judges will be able to smush it all together and give everyone the same score. This will be interesting.
All due respect, Derek was the undisputed king of the team dance too, and probably rightly so … until this season. Anything can happen.
Miss C – could the running order thing haven s function of stage setup? Nick had all the faux mosh-pit, and the multi-part stage, where Bindi was just dancing. Just a thought.
I’M worried that Bindi has an Argentine tango/cha cha because we already have a winner who had the Argentine tango/cha cha and we haven’t had a winner with tango/salsa
Amber samba quickstep
Meryl foxtrot cha cha
Alfonso Argentine tango cha cha
Rumer paso doble foxtrot
We always have winners with different fusion dances, and if the pattern continues Nick is the winner
When I think of the season as a whole what comes to mind is
Bindi, lovely dancer, most perfect dances of all and most 10’s
Nick, struggled, stumbled on several moves, put in a lot of BSB music and dance moves (is that fair)
Alex, hasn’t really been taught to dance so lacks some technique, no flubs, consistent, lacks some emotion but improved a lot on that
I think Bindi & Alex were a surprise because it wasn’t expected for them to grow such a large fanbase. I think Bindi will win, she should win. But the judges are still so awestruck over BSB Nick that I think something is going to happen there. I hope it’s Bindi, Alek and Nick, but I don’t know.
Andy, dude – that’s really a stretch. Like, REALLY a stretch.
@Sally – It’s certainly possible. A lot of times, the set kinda dictates the running order – they tend to save the really complicated setups till later in the show.
@Andy, I don’t think that will mean too much, because there are only so many combos of “fusion” dances you can come up with before they repeat themselves. Had Bindi danced Paso this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if that was one of her choices. I wouldn’t put too much stock into it.
#Stargazer — you are right of course, anything can happen. The team situation is quite different, however, because there are always other couples involved, and limits to what Derek can control. The fusion situation is just Derek and his partner, period. While the two remaining male contestants may well have all kinds of wonderful qualities, they are not particularly “fleet of foot.” I am confident that Bindi and Derek will way out perform the men. We shall see.
If Nick takes this ball I will be seriously irritated.
Just a FYI, DWTS has posted the Freestyles on their Facebook page! Woo hoo for easy access to viewing.
And although I recognize that the FB audience and the viewing audience who would vote are completely separate and therefore do not predict winners or placement in this competition, Alek & Lindsay’s FS has about 2.4k likes, Nick & Sharna’s FS has about 9.1 K likes and Derek & Bindi’s FS has 88.5K likes.
Granted Derek & Bindi’s dance has been up about 5 hours while the other two dances only for about 3 hours, but as I watched Derek & Bindi’s, the number of likes went up by 500 likes a 100 at a time, the other two dances ‘likes’ did not change I. That same time period. Clearly people are enjoying re-watching Bindi & Derek’s dance :).
Princess H, thank you for doing this numbers post for the last time this season. I may not comment frequently here on Pure, but it’s one of the posts I always look forward to. I enjoy turning my brain upside-down and inside out trying to make sense of all the numbers you crunch out week after week. I usually have to read twice before fully grasping everything you write, LOL! It is definitely easier to understand when there are a few couples left. Again, thank you!
Looking at the numbers—yikes! Anything can happen now. The margins are not that huge compared to previous weeks. I do hope Bindi wins, with Alek as runner-up. These two are the ones I always look forward to watching every week. They make me smile. I would have been okay for Nick to take second place, but I have been disappointed in his overall performance this season. Maybe I expected too much from him and he didn’t meet my expectation. Having said that, I am glad that the top three turned out this way. But I will be very sad if Bindi doesn’t take that shiny ball tonight.
Asking the experts here, do you think that if all three have Tango inspired dances, this may actually help Alek pass Nick for second place? For all those that say he can’t dance, he has been a more consistent dancer in hold than Nick, especially dancing the Tango during the season. I would love to see him have a chance at second place.
The judges being fair is kind of an oxymoron isn’t it? Keeping their nose out of things…that is a laugh too. Perhaps I am just cynical. While I think they had to be careful with Bindi because manipulating her too much would have come back on them 100 times over, the thought they would leave their fingers out of it unless the voting is such that they have no other option makes no sense. Did I mention by judges I mean TPTB. Aren’t they the real judges? The only scenario I can see where they keep their little fingers off is if one of the finalists is running away with the votes and their manipulations would mean nothing.
I’m going to cheat and see who the winner is before the show hits the west coast feed. I can’t take any more tension. I’ve stayed off of other sites today because I can’t take any more crap about Bindi using her father to win. Also, that Bindi had dance experience because she snapped her fingers and moved her feet once in a zoo show. It makes me want to drive a Louboutin through my forehead. I won’t begrudge anyone the win but Bindi has so clearly outdanced everyone. She could easily do what the boys have done but none of them could duplicate her dances. Whatever, and now we wait.
Yeah, Yvonne, that two hours doesn’t account for a whole order of magnitude between Bindi and Nick. It’s just…crazy…that it got that many likes. But the youtube videos skyrocketed in views until they were yanked.
Looks like the stars are indeed doing a redo dance and a fusion tonight – probably their favorite dance cause Bindi was in her V.Waltz costume and Alexander Jean is performing tonight so it’s fitting
@Kim, it’s a bit ridiculous, isn’t it? And notice how they’re all of a sudden hating now since it’s the finale? They know she’s a threat to her favorite and will probably win it all. Oh well, Bindi is the light in this world that they need in their lives.
Whew. Made it back home in time for the finale.
It’s been mentioned by someone else…but why change the running order? Why not have Nick go last for both rounds? That’s the part that confuses me.
Come on, Stargazer – Derek is STILL the undisputed King of the team dance. He’s won or tied it *12* times. That’s a record NO ONE else will achieve.
Thanks Jill.
Another couple of hours later on FB and the likes for the Freestyles are 3.3K for Alek, 10.6K likes for Nick’s FS and 106 K likes for Bindi’s FS. Woo Hoo, PH, that is (very roughly) an extra 1K for Alek and 1.5 K for Nick and an extra 20K likes for Bindi in the same time frame. Bindi is definitely attracting people in a different order of magnitude :).
My fingers are just crossed that all of those people voted in the same proportions and that there is no wild manipulation going on tonight by TPTB…
Thanks for the update Yvonne. I’m in CA so it will be a while for me, so it’s good to hear something positive before I abandon SM for a few hours.
Go Light Ninja!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Next season how about Chef Gordon Ramsey, or Ron Howard, or Jay Leno ???? Just suggestions.
Ok, just watched the finale and decided to check the FB likes one last time now that I know the results :). Likes for the Freestyle dances are at 4.3 K for Alek, 12.1K for Nick’s and 123K for Bindi. hmmmm.
Side note: Bindi’s FS video has over 4.3 million views on the DWTSs FB page! Unbelievable – well by comparison anyway, since Alek’s has 80.7K views and Nick’s has 232K views.
And at this point I will step away from the FB page and checking numbers – but it was just curiosity that got me.