DWTS Season 22, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers
Since this past week won’t actually result in an elimination all on it’s own, I took my time writing this and I’m doing it on my new MacBook, so I’m learning at the same time. 🙂
Well, last Monday sucked pretty bad – the one bright spot being that Paige got through to the final which makes me very happy. Last Monday was the first week that I was mostly wrong on who was going home. Wanya was my third choice – bummed about that, but at least we lost Antonio. We still have someone in the final who really shouldn’t be there and that’s Ginger. I would say “that’s how it goes sometimes” but I won’t because the pimping has been relentless. The takeover of every single DWTS segment on GMA is one thing…but the DWTS official twitter accounts are sickening with their focus on Ginger. Have you seen their latest photo of the finalists with Ginger right out in front? It’s not even subtle any more. I don’t get it. She seems like a nice woman, sure – but she’s not all that as a dancer and Val is doing nothing for her in terms of choreography. Their motives are pretty transparent – she’s family.
Ah well, I don’t think she’s going to win it by any stretch. I wager she’s only in the finale because of the combination of her over-scoring and Wanya’s underscoring. Yes, he was underscored. One only has to look at the straight 9’s Nyle got after an extremely messy Jive – and he didn’t have the excuse of slipping on a bandana. Good lord, the games these judges play. But if you read the numbers post long enough, you realize that Wayna could have gotten as much as 14k more votes per million votes cast than Ginger and STILL have gone home because he needed more than 14k in order to make up the difference in the scores. And THAT, my friends, is why judges scores are so freakin’ important and why them having a crack binge before the show is so harmful. 😉
Anyway, what’s done is done. Because of what happened with Wanya, I’m thinking the voting is pretty close, so you should be sure to vote for your favorite. And right now, my favorite is in the lead. Sometimes I wonder if the judges themselves really understand the show. I wonder this because I’m not sure they would want Paige in the lead permanently. I guess we’ll find out – if they underscore Paige and overscore Ginger and Nyle, then we’ll know. If they throw it to the audience this Monday like they often do when it’s close, by giving everyone tens, they give the slight advantage to Paige. I suspect, though, that we’ll see some leveling – meaning Paige will get a couple 9’s while everyone else gets straight tens. I expect to be pissed off in some way. 🙂
Anyway, let’s pretend that someone’s getting eliminated on Monday. Here is the leaderboard:
Paige has a two point lead over Nyle and a three point lead over Ginger – that’s pretty good at this stage of the game, which is why I suspect it won’t last. What does that mean for votes?
That means that, to win, Nyle needs at least 7,000 more votes per million votes cast than Paige, and he would need for Ginger to not cover the spread. At one point, I thought that Nyle had this in the bag, but I’m no longer sure of that. It all hinges on what the judges do. So, let’s take a stab at that.
I’m thinking they will find a way to give Paige less points than Nyle and by the end of the night, the two of them will be tied and Ginger will be a few points down. What happens then?
If this were to happen, it would mean that IF Ginger doesn’t cover the spread of about 6,500 votes per million votes cast to catch them, whoever gets the most votes between Paige and Nyle wins. Of course, there is a fusion dance on Tuesday that is also for points, but you’ll be voting based on the dances from Monday. I strongly suspect that the judges will not change the outcome with their scores on Tuesday and we’ll see a bunch more tens across the board. The press release doesn’t say how the fusion will be scored, so I suspect the plan is to score as usual. What this means is that if they give straight tens, it decreases the margin that Ginger needs to catch up – down to 5,500 votes per million.
If I’m wrong and they just start throwing out tens like Candy on Monday night, here’s what happens:
It means that Paige remains in the lead, but the margins are teeny tiny.
It could make it more likely that Ginger takes second – I doubt it, but you never know. It also makes it more likely that Paige will win as she will have a lead on Nyle of 3,400 votes per million votes cast.
So what will actually happen? I have no idea. I used to think that Nyle had it in the bag, due to him being deaf and the fact that he’s gorgeous – but he hasn’t shown a lot of growth, whereas Paige really has, emotionally AND as a dancer. Plus, she has Mark and a nice chunk of Derek’s fans voting for her in addition to her own.
I think it will tremendously hinge on the actual dancing we see tomorrow night more than anything. In that respect, I think Paige has the edge because she’s doing two very different types – Salsa and Contemporary. One will be high energy and fun, the other will likely be much slower and emotionally driven. The latter can likely be said for Nyle’s dance, but the quickstep is much less forgiving than the Salsa – and Peta really hasn’t been working on Nyle’s posture at all. Has she this week and is it too late? I have no idea. I would be willing to bet that Paige’s technique will be better but the judges won’t care in the least.
I will say – this is the first season in a long time that I go into the finale have no idea who’s going to win. I usually have at least a inkling…not this time.
I’m willing to bet that unless something goes terribly wrong in someone’s dances – monday and tuesday will have all perfect scores so then Paige would be in the lead score-wise.
I agree with you, PH. If Paige can grab bigger share of votes than Antonio and Wanye, then I won’t be surprised seeing her taking the MBT. I think Paige’s fan-base has grown tremendously (or better I should say got active) in last few weeks because she is consistently knocking down the other contestants with her dancing prowess and also trying her best to promote herself and Mark on social media. And I adore the way she’s administering all these things alone, what a superwoman she is!
Coming back to Nyle, I’d say his graph has kinda become constant. I didn’t love the AT and Jive that he did on last Monday night, but I’d say that one good performance (Freestyle, I am pointing out) can potentially change the game. If he comes up with super emotional dancing, then America is going to cast their votes at maximum for him.
And for Ginger, sorry but I don’t think she needs any analysis. She better stay happy with whatever she gets.
PH, As always thanks for the great numbers. In some ways it’s comforting to see you have no more idea than I about how the finale is going to turn out. What’s annoying is that things would be clearer if we didn’t have to contend with producer manipulation.
I’m definitely prepared to be pissed off, which is why I’m not watching live. On Monday, I’ll be voting for Paige and Mark and will be checking the live blog here. I’ll decide how to approach Tuesday after I know how badly TPTB screw Paige on Monday.
I’d love to see Paige and Mark win, but my main hope is for them to nail all their dances. That way no matter what happens they can look back with no regrets, knowing they did their best.
If Nyle and Peta win, I’ll be OK with that.
Paige DIDN’T necessarily get more votes than Antonio and Wanya, Moksh. She was ahead of them on the leaderboard so they had to cover the spread to stay over her. They didn’t – but that doesn’t mean that Paige got more votes than them.
I’m really, really glad that no matter how sh*tty things get, Princess Heidi still runs the numbers and shares them with us! BRAVO!
I guess the one sliver of light from last week’s fiasco is that I won’t be torn whether to vote for Paige or Wanya. Rooting for Paige and Mark to hoist a well earned trophy this week! But if there isn’t manipulation and Nyle/Peta win, I’ll be fine with that too.
Sorry, my mistake. I forgot that completely. She had 1 point lead over Antonio and 3 point lead over Wanye.
I’m seeing a lot of Wanya fans throwing support to Paige too. So hopefully that means she has a better chance of winning.
I’m really hoping that the manipulation is less this Monday since TPTB gotten their company girl to the finals. I’ll be really upset if she places higher than third.
First off, a big thanks for doing this post PH; it’s a lot of work and many of us appreciate it!
I’m with you Cidra; I’m bracing myself to be royally pissed off tomorrow. I won’t be watching live either but will be reading the blog and watching Court’s tweets! Barring a major misstep, the night should end the way it begins with Paige in the lead, but I have little confidence in this happening! I’m betting the stooges will find some way to tighten the margins (most likely by marking Paige lower in the salsa and giving Nyle and WeatherGirl perfect scores). If they follow the usual script 10’s will fly on the freestyles. That way it will be decided by the audience, and they can say they are blameless (rolls eyes).
As long as Ginger doesn’t win I’m okay with either of the other two winning (although I’m betting on a play for sympathy as poor Ginger is hurt). I’ll be voting hardcore for Paige no matter what; I just hope they nail both dances and know they gave it their all!
All I know is…. I’m going to be a nervous wreck tomorrow. I really want everything to go well for Paige & Mark. Like Cidra said (#3), I don’t want them to look back and wish they had done something better.
I’ve always said (maybe not on here) that if Nyle wins I’d be okay with it too. But I know I’ll really only be satisfied if Paige wins.
I’ve always been a fan of the Chmerkovskiy’s, but if Val is really trying to concede to Nyle & Peta I’m so done with them. They’ve done nothing but irritate me this whole season. Mostly Maks though, he’s just way too involved in all of this. That’s why I’m really only happy with Paige winning.
Excited to get this finale over with and see what happens!
I’m not sure I can watch tomorrow night. I really hate when the judges play games with the scores in order to get the producers favorites to win. Why can’t they just judge the dances fairly. This season is so close but not due to fair judging. Wanya should have been in the finals, not Ginger. Now is she petitioning for sympathy votes because she hurt her pelvis?
I was amazed to hear Ginger and Val say they wish Nyle to win. That’s because Peta is Max’s fiancé. You know Max is helping Peta with the choreography and at rehearsals. I thought he no longer works for DWTS??? Max is performing one of the nights to promote his tour. PLEASE!!
I have watched this show from season 1 and I’m really disappointed in Rob Wade and his management.
All my votes are going to Paige and Mark. They deserve this win!
I went into this season planning on just watching and doing some light voting if someone danced well since Derek wasn’t going to be on and after that amazing season with Bindi I didn’t have too much hope.. well that was until I saw Paige dance.
She blew me away week 1 with her lines and technique and I had a feeling she was going to be good. Weeks went on and she just got better and better, and now she is on fire. She definitely peaked just at the right time because she’s a force to be reckoned with.
Now that she made it to the finals I want her and Mark to win more than ever. Not just her, but for Mark to because he’s created some amazing routines and made her shine every week. They are an amazing partnership and seeing Mark so happy this season makes me happy.
Paige and Mark FTW and I’ll be voting hard to try to get them this MBT!
Do we know the running order on Monday and Tuesday? Does running order kind of tell who wins? I noticed everytime they have the fusion challenge, the couple that goes last is usually the one that wins (source = Wikipedia page)
@ Mo
I for one have thrown votes to Paige & Mark all season and last Monday she got all my votes; since my other favorite, Antonio was eliminated. Paige deserves the MBT and I have many friends and family members who were voting for AB and now all votes going to Paige. She has out-done the others, and Mark’ teaching & choreography is awesome!
If AB’s and Wanya’s fans are casting votes to Paige, she just may take that MBT home Tuesday night!
@ Mo
I for one have thrown votes to Paige & Mark all season and last Monday she got all my votes; since my other favorite, Antonio was eliminated. Paige deserves the MBT and I have many friends and family members who were voting for AB and now all votes going to Paige. She has out-done the others, and Mark’s teaching & choreography is awesome!
If AB’s and Wanya’s fans are casting votes to Paige, she just may take that MBT home Tuesday night!
Heidi, I’m at a loss too. If we’re talking about who’s had the most consistent dances, it’s Nyle and Paige (I can see either two taking it). I just can’t see Ginger winning it unless TPTB are manipulating which is a huge possibility as I’ll never understand how Wanya didn’t make it over her.
I have voted for Wanya all season long. When he was eliminated last week, all my votes went to Paige. I don’t even have to see any of them dance tomorrow night to know every single vote I can give is going to Paige and Mark. Ginger shouldn’t even be in the finals. Nyle has some issues that have never been brought up by the judges and that just pisses me off. So Come on Paige and Mark fans, come on Derek fans, come on AB fans, come on Wanya and Lindsay fans, let’s get that mirrorball for Paige and Mark!!!! Let us pick the winner and not TPTB!!! Uprising going on here!!!
I am sure hoping that America votes on talent and not emotion Peta is playing that card heavily I also thought Nyle had it but but now I am thinking and hoping Paige will take it and she should she is clearly the best dancer. She is getting all Derek votes and what I have seen on social media most people want her to win. A lot of promotion for her to win If history repeats itself the freestyles get all 10’s for everyone it’s the redemption dance that matters most and Nyle has the difficult quickstep where there is hold and posture and footwork Ginger and Paige basically have no rule dances TPTB would make a huge mistake by screwing Paige they would not only have Mark fans but Derek fans irate
My feeling right now is that is going to be 10s all around. I might be wrong, but I think the last time a freestyle didn’t get a perfect score was season 19 (and there have been plenty that didn’t deserve it). If anything, I wonder if the Ginger backlash will have the judges score her more fairly.
I think its going to be fairly close between Paige and Nyle (I can see her keeping her 2 point advantage) and basically letting the fans duke it out. I’ll be personally disappointed if Paige doesn’t win, but for me its like season 19. I was rooting for Alfonso, I thought he was the best dancer, but a Sadie win would have felt justified as well. If its Paige holding that up I will be screaming with joy, but if its Nyle I feel he has earned it. If its Ginger than I’m seriously done.
I really believe at this point that the judges will all be 10s and leave it to America. Anything else will be too obvious. Unless, of course, someone makes such an obvious mistake it can’t be ignored.
It will be interesting now that it has been said that Ginger is injured how that will play out.
This could be the ugliest finale in 22 seasons. There have been lots of times when people didn’t like the outcome but this one really seems to be the worst yet and they haven’t even had the finale yet.
@Molly, well honestly, I think the only way it will turn ugly is if Ginger gets pimped so she wins easily or actually wins.. if Nyle or Paige wins everyone will be fine because they’re the two best ones left.
I would love for Paige & Mark to win, she’s such a sweet person and besides Wanya, one of the most consistent and enjoyable couples to watch this season. I just really cross fingers that the fans have voted, I voted my fingers off for her. Both she and Mark are a blessing to watch on DWTS.
That being said, I wouldn’t die if Nyle & Peta win. Nyle although hasn’t really been the best dancer, and overscored sometimes, I thought it was nice to learn about the deaf community, and spread an inspiring message around to others that anything is possible. I didn’t necessarily vote for him but watching Nyle & Peta on their journey has been incredible as well.
I don’t have a lot to say about Ginger. She seems like a nice person, and I think she would be fine if there wasn’t this crazy fan club TPTB seems to have for her. I hope that after Wanya’s elimination last week, this week won’t be a continuation of the hell ride.
@Tina. I agree. Ginger winning will make it very ugly. No matter who wins any season there is always someone crying over it but sometimes it just seems mobbish. I’m not sure that’s even a word. 🙂
I really want Paige and Mark to win. It is their dances I re-watch, and they have had a an incredible journey that I thought would not have lasted much past week 6 when they were in the bottom. Imagine all the incredible dances we would have lost, the Jive, the VWaltz, the Samba, and that incredible AT. The best dancing of the season has been this team. Nyle may have “redefined”dance but Paige and Mark are the definition of dwts champs. I hope it comes true
I really want Paige and Mark to win. It is their dances I re-watch, and they have had an incredible journey that I thought would not have lasted much past week 6 when they were in the bottom. Imagine all the dances we would have lost, the Jive, the VWaltz, the Samba, and that incredible AT. The best dancing of the season has been this team. Nyle may have “redefined”dance but Paige and Mark are the definition of dwts champs. I hope it comes true
Remember Season 14 when Katherine was on top of the leaderboard with a perfect 90 but Donald and Peta still won because of the fans.
I thought I wouldn’t vote this season anymore because my faves (Jodie & Keo) left but after last Monday night, i couldnt resist voting for Paige. Girl is such a star. Gave her all my votes and will do so again tomorrow night. I really hope this is not another Katherine Jenkins season for Marky
Gee, Zoe, I had forgotten all about the previous seasons where the person on top of the leaderboard didn’t win. :::rolls eyes::: Most of us call Donald the winner from Day ONE – that was not a surprise.
Out of curiosity, has anyone seen the YouTube vids of young Paige dancing contemporary? They are under the name ‘R. Stevens’…I particularly like the one of Paige at age 11.
I wonder if Mark will include any of her old moves in their freestyle. He seems to prefer more modern contemporary (angular and edgy), so I don’t know…
I hope Mark does contemporary. Paige has beautiful lines for it and it would be good strategy IMO. Did Mark say BC will sing one of her songs for the freestyle?
Cali, Nyle is definitely doing contemporary, and it appears a choreographer Peta and Nyle used thanked Peta for allowing her to tell Nyle’s story.
Rose1, yes, the ABC press release says BC will be singing “Over the Rainbow” for their freestyle.”
I think that’s the classic, though, not one of BC’s songs.
Uh I was just stating that fact since someone earlier said the person on the top of the leaderboard wins and plus thought it was interesting because the final two in season 14 were Peta and Mark.
The more I think about this season the more frustrated I get. We were so close to having one of the most competitive finals ever, and instead we got Ginger. Don’t get me wrong I’m sure she’s a really nice person, but I don’t care for her one bit. First, she gets overscored all season and praised to the point where you’d think she was the best thing to ever happen to this show. Now that she got hand-delivered into the finals, she’s been complaining about her social media bullies and now her pelvis injury. Injuries aren’t fun. I hate seeing anyone work this hard and then have something happen. But when you put out a nice press release overemphasizing your injuries and once again reiterating how you’re a “non-dancer” I call BS. Last season Bindi’s toenails full on fell off, and even when Derek finally said something about it, she still brushed it off like oh no big deal. And now, we’ve got Val and Ginger oh so graciously throwing thier support to to Nyle and Peta. Not only does this give them an easy out to third, it also, IMO, makes Paige and Mark look like the bad guys for wanting to win. B.S.
I think Nyle and Peta have done great. The fact that he has been able to do so much with his life is tremendous and I love when we get to see that sweeteer, softer side to Peta. That being said, he hasn’t really improved much over the season. He started good, he’s ending good, albeit with less than perfect posture.
I’m still hoping (and voting) for a Paige and Mark win, but I’ll be okay with a Nyle and Peta win.
@Rose1, based on the song they have I think contemporary is the route they’re going to go and I can’t wait. It’s going to be beautiful and I know Mark is going to pull out all the stops choreography wise, but also strip it down and make Paige the star like he has all season.
As much as I admire Nyle and love seeing this side of Peta, I just feel Maks’ footprint in her Choreography. It seems that the last three disabled celebs on the show have made it to the final week. I was glad that last season Everone had the advantage and no disability impairment. Paige has been a hard worker with everything else on her side and the best Pro partner. My pioint is, I don’t think it’s fair to celebs like Paige to compete with an impaired opponent even if I admire Nyle’s situation and his life accomplishment.
I don’t have any issue with Maks helping Peta and Nyle. I don’t think he’s helping with choreo like some think. If he is, then Peta is foolish because she can choreograph in spades over him any day. She proved that with Donald Driver. If anything, Peta is helping Maks with HIS ability to choreograph. lol Anyway, I think Maks is only helping with timing etc being Nyle can’t hear. And it’s not like the other couples haven’t had help sometimes too in some way.
I’m just “meh” about the finale. I certain Boyz is not in the finale. Because of this I’m voting super hard for Paige. She is the only one out of the 3 who makes me sit up and take notice. She is the only one improving. And yes I do admire Nyle a lot. As for Ginger? Double “meh”.
Where I see Maks influence is more in gestures, like when he was sitting on the bed last week and threw his arms up, it looked so much like Maks, which makes sense if Maks has been a visual model for him. And I’ve said before, I don’t have a problem with that. Would be nice to have full disclosure but it’s a “reality” tv show.
As far as unfair, I just can’t see how being deaf gives him an unfair advantage. People vote for who they want to. So what if they vote for him because they are impressed with not letting his deafness stop him. Valerie Harper, one of my fave contestants, certainly got votes because people loved her spirit while having cancer in her nervous system (me) So far, JUST having a respect (or what many people call sympathy) vote hasn’t won anyone a MB yet. It may have been a factor (big or small) in JR win, but he also could dance, and he and Karina had an amazing partnership and with only a couple falters, delivered terrific routines.
Paige and Ginger can actually hear their teachers correct them *in real time* while they are actually practicing a move, they don’t have to look off to an interpreter for verbal cueing. If you’ve ever taught someone to do something movement related, you are constantly, constantly using verbal cues/sounds to make corrections, give positive feedback when it’s the right quality…
I’m voting for Paige, I like watching her dance and I think she’s been on a growing journey, but truth be told, I’m mostly voting for them because I love Mark’s choreo this season and I want him to win. Again, people vote for whatever reason they want to.
I think Maks and Peta have choreographed together, but they hired an outside choreographer for the finale as I figured they would. The choreographer said she is honored. I’m not bothered that Maks was there 24/7, but that they hid it (and I don’t for a second believe Peta would have coped without his help because she runs on emotion). Yet, they had no issue showing Paige’s background when they became worried she was gaining on their chosen.
We don’t really know what all Maks is doing in rehearsals. The choreo does, in some instances, look like Maks’ – but so what if it is? People use outside choreo all the time on this show – and apparently Peta did as well on their freestyle. Again, so what? Not everyone is Derek Hough or Mark Ballas. Some of them need to get BETTER outside choreographers, for sure.
This has probably been mentioned before, but regarding Ginger, what irritates me is that it seems that it isn’t just because she is family that TPTB want her to win. Its their odd and ever increasing desire to make Val the next Derek. They want him to be the “it” guy so badly. Needless to say, it is quite irritating. I mean really…you either have that “it” factor or you don’t. Sad they think they can force it on people. As to who I want to win, I really dont care at this point. I wanted Wanya to win. I will say, though, that I am afraid that Paige will not win due to the package they gave her last week. And something about Nyle bothers me so I really would rather he not win (maybe it is the constant milking of his deafness), but at the same time I do not want Ginger to win either as she is neither the best dancer nor the most improved. So I am conflicted at this moment.
April. if you want Paige to win then vote for her. She has an equal chance as everyone else. If you don’t vote then she won’t win. Her package was not bad.. she’s not the only one on the show that’s had dance experience so don’t worry about it. just vote for your favorite and don’t be afraid.
The freestyle will also be a huge factor in determining the winner. I still remember how Mya from Season 9 was one of the most talented dancers in the show (her madonna salsa was fireee) but she lost to Donny probably because Dmitry gave her a very lackluster and boring freestyle while Kym choreographed an excellent one.
April If what you say is true, it must have come as a great shock for TPTB to hear Val say he is supporting Nyle for the win.
Mya was NEVER going to beat Donny Osmond. Never. Since Day one, we knew he was going to win. Freestyle had nothing to do with that one.
Yup, that was one of those season’s where just about everyone on the planet knew Donny Osmond was going to win. Donny could have came out and just stood there… and he would have won the MBT.
I guess if your a member of the younger generation you may not have known who he was. Heck, I could probably name everyone of the Osmonds in order… including their parents!
Heck, Donny knew he was going to win just standing there. 🙂
I hope Mark knocks that song and freestyle out of the park. Based on the IG someone working with Nyle’s choreographer posted, Peta has a handful of people in the studio helping her with the freestyle. Anyone familiar with Talia Favia? I’ve never heard of her, but apparently she’s very well regarded. Can I hope against hope that Mark got THE choreographer DH to come in for a little one-on-one with him and Paige? LOL.
@Rose1 – Talia Favia is a contemporary choreographer who is a protege of Sonya Tayeh (2-time Emmy nominee, known for “dark” and weird dances). She choreographed a dance on SYTYCD last summer (Season 12) that was danced by Megz and Edson, if you want to look it up.
Correction to my last post: Sonya Tayeh has only been nominated for an Emmy once. The rest of my point/info stands though.
Thanks as always for your insights and analysis. I feel like it is going to be “10s like candy” tonight and tomorrow.
Paige’s story for their contemporary is going to be emotional. She talks about it in her People blog that was posted on here.