DWTS Season 22, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Since this past week won’t actually result in an elimination all on it’s own, I took my time writing this and I’m doing it on my new MacBook, so I’m learning at the same time.  🙂

Well, last Monday sucked pretty bad – the one bright spot being that Paige got through to the final which makes me very happy. Last Monday was the first week that I was mostly wrong on who was going home. Wanya was my third choice – bummed about that, but at least we lost Antonio. We still have someone in the final who really shouldn’t be there and that’s Ginger. I would say “that’s how it goes sometimes” but I won’t because the pimping has been relentless. The takeover of every single DWTS segment on GMA is one thing…but the DWTS official twitter accounts are sickening with their focus on Ginger. Have you seen their latest photo of the finalists with Ginger right out in front? It’s not even subtle any more. I don’t get it. She seems like a nice woman, sure – but she’s not all that as a dancer and Val is doing nothing for her in terms of choreography. Their motives are pretty transparent – she’s family.

Ah well, I don’t think she’s going to win it by any stretch. I wager she’s only in the finale because of the combination of her over-scoring and Wanya’s underscoring. Yes, he was underscored. One only has to look at the straight 9’s Nyle got after an extremely messy Jive – and he didn’t have the excuse of slipping on a bandana. Good lord, the games these judges play. But if you read the numbers post long enough, you realize that Wayna could have gotten as much as 14k more votes per million votes cast than Ginger and STILL have gone home because he needed more than 14k in order to make up the difference in the scores. And THAT, my friends, is why judges scores are so freakin’ important and why them having a crack binge before the show is so harmful. 😉

Anyway, what’s done is done. Because of what happened with Wanya, I’m thinking the voting is pretty close, so you should be sure to vote for your favorite. And right now, my favorite is in the lead. Sometimes I wonder if the judges themselves really understand the show. I wonder this because I’m not sure they would want Paige in the lead permanently. I guess we’ll find out – if they underscore Paige and overscore Ginger and Nyle, then we’ll know.  If they throw it to the audience this Monday like they often do when it’s close, by giving everyone tens, they give the slight advantage to Paige. I suspect, though, that we’ll see some leveling – meaning Paige will get a couple 9’s while everyone else gets straight tens. I expect to be pissed off in some way. 🙂

Anyway, let’s pretend that someone’s getting eliminated on Monday. Here is the leaderboard:

Screenshot 2016-05-22 12.50.51

Paige has a two point lead over Nyle and a three point lead over Ginger – that’s pretty good at this stage of the game, which is why I suspect it won’t last.  What does that mean for votes?

Screenshot 2016-05-22 12.52.20

That means that, to win, Nyle needs at least 7,000 more votes per million votes cast than Paige, and he would need for Ginger to not cover the spread. At one point, I thought that Nyle had this in the bag, but I’m no longer sure of that. It all hinges on what the judges do.  So, let’s take a stab at that.

I’m thinking they will find a way to give Paige less points than Nyle and by the end of the night, the two of them will be tied and Ginger will be a few points down. What happens then?

Screenshot 2016-05-22 13.57.19

If this were to happen, it would mean that IF Ginger doesn’t cover the spread of about 6,500 votes per million votes cast to catch them, whoever gets the most votes between Paige and Nyle wins. Of course, there is a fusion dance on Tuesday that is also for points, but you’ll be voting based on the dances from Monday.  I strongly suspect that the judges will not change the outcome with their scores on Tuesday and we’ll see a bunch more tens across the board. The press release doesn’t say how the fusion will be scored, so I suspect the plan is to score as usual. What this means is that if they give straight tens, it decreases the margin that Ginger needs to catch up – down to 5,500 votes per million.

If I’m wrong and they just start throwing out tens like Candy on Monday night, here’s what happens:

Screenshot 2016-05-22 14.19.06

It means that Paige remains in the lead, but the margins are teeny tiny.

Screenshot 2016-05-22 14.22.29

It could make it more likely that Ginger takes second – I doubt it, but you never know.  It also makes it more likely that Paige will win as she will have a lead on Nyle of 3,400 votes per million votes cast.

So what will actually happen? I have no idea.  I used to think that Nyle had it in the bag, due to him being deaf and the fact that he’s gorgeous – but he hasn’t shown a lot of growth, whereas Paige really has, emotionally AND as a dancer. Plus, she has Mark and a nice chunk of Derek’s fans voting for her in addition to her own.

I think it will tremendously hinge on the actual dancing we see tomorrow night more than anything. In that respect, I think Paige has the edge because she’s doing two very different types – Salsa and Contemporary. One will be high energy and fun, the other will likely be much slower and emotionally driven.  The latter can likely be said for Nyle’s dance, but the quickstep is much less forgiving than the Salsa – and Peta really hasn’t been working on Nyle’s posture at all. Has she this week and is it too late? I have no idea. I would be willing to bet that Paige’s technique will be better but the judges won’t care in the least.

I will say – this is the first season in a long time that I go into the finale have no idea who’s going to win. I usually have at least a inkling…not this time.