DWTS Season 22, THE FINALE – Dancing by the Numbers WHO’S GONNA WIN??
Well, that’s somewhat surprising. At the end of the night there was a tie, but it was a tie for second, with Paige all alone at the top. I didn’t get to see the show live, I am going on youtube and the scores with this commentary. I will likely get to watch the show before the finale-finale, but I need to write this before then. 🙂
I will just say…”the best dance ever on DWTS”??? Bullshit. Typical judge hyperbole and they say it at least once every season and it never means anything. It’s obvious when it’s actually true – very obvious. Sharna should know better than to buy into this – really, where have you been? The audience is MUCH smarter than this and this is the mistake people on this show continue to make every season. It’s ridiculous. Thanks for playing, try again.
Anyway, the scores do make me wonder if the judges really understand how the show works – and if they remembered that last weeks scores and votes count too. Do I really think they would rank it Paige – Ginger – Nyle and then give everyone a 30 on their freestyle if they knew it would result in this?
No, I’m not sure I believe that the judges would allow Paige to be alone at the top with a four point cushion. I think they might believe that Paige only has a one point lead and that they ranked them how they think they should finish. The crack is strong in these judges. 😉
Anyway, what this means is that if either Nyle or Ginger want to win, they have to get about 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Paige does.
It’s really that simple. But what happens when they add points tomorrow?? I have a really hard time believing that the judges will change the rank – they RARELY change the spread or the rank after the votes have been cast. I don’t think they will do it tomorrow. I wager they will give everyone the same score – and this will reduce the margin.
How much? If everyone gets a 30 on their fusion, Ginger or Nyle will need 7,300 more votes per million votes cast to WIN over Paige. It can certainly happen – someone can beat her. Tony claimed that there was only three or four percent between the couples. But what does that mean? Between the couples with the combined score?? Between the couples votes? I have no idea what the context is on this. ETA in the morning: Saw a bit of the show, and Tom said after the judges scores and your votes were combined there is only a 3% difference between them. That means that it’s anyone’s game. Like it was before. 🙂
So what do I think will happen? I think that if the judges don’t tinker tomorrow, Paige will squeak out a win. If not her, then Nyle will take it. But I’m leaning towards Paige. The only thing that will really piss me off is if Ginger manages it.
But I don’t think she will…I think/hope/pray it will be Paige and Mark.
ETA: and to show how schizophrenic I am, this morning when I woke up I was leaning toward Nyle squeaking out a win. That’s just how close it is. Still praying for Paige though. 🙂
I agree…it’s so close between Nyle and Paige, it’s hard to predict. I think it will be Paige. Then again, maybe it’s Nyle? I’m fine with either of them winning, but, over all, Paige has been more consistent.
I hope it is Paige as well. Hers have been the dances I have rewatched. Such a lovely dancer and young lady. Here’s hoping!
Paige crushed it last night, fingers crossed that she wins!
I think with Paige having been in jeopardy before, that will influence how America has been voting!! I’m still pulling for a Nyle win!! I still think that he blows her out of the water in viewer votes!!!
I really, really really want Paige and Mark to win but I would be suprised if they do. I think Nyle will win it cause of his backstory and a lot of talk around his freestyle which I didn’t think was that great. It just seemed like almost any other contempary done on the show to me. I would love to me wrong though.
I think Nyle does too, Brandon.
But yes, here’s to hoping!
Thanks for these, Heidi!! I’m leaning more towards Paige as well.. Although the numbers are SO close between her and Nyle that it could be either of them. I’m fine with Nyle winning but I’d so love to see Paige win after an amazing season with Mark. Oh and it’s Mark’s birthday 😉
I pulled out ALL my power voting. As I went along, I started wondering how many others out there were similarly occupied. I think that Paige and Mark probably had more heavily-motivated (especially after hearing there’s only a 3% difference) power voters by a wide margin than either of the others. I think she’s going to do it.
Mark so deserves it — and I don’t mean that in the entitled sense. He’s grown up, and has begun building a great life for himself. He works hard at everything he does, clearly was enormously helpful to Paige on this journey, and has a wonderful partner in and great love for BC. I think as between the 3 final pros, Mark has definitely earned it. There’s great energy about them, which we’ll see again in their fusion dance.
@Suzy I was right there with ya, through all the website issues and such I chugged through and voted my fingers off for Paige. I so agree with you.. He’s really outdone himself this season and they deserve it!!
I think it will be Nyle even though he’s not the best of the three, but I think America loves his story,
If we want to talk about deserving pros, working with someone who cannot hear the music is pretty impressive, but it isn’t about the PRO – right?
I really have absolutely no idea who will win. From the get go I felt it was Nyle’s to lose, but that was before he plateaued and Paige caught fire! But Nyle’s freestyle may have brought him back, especially given the sheeple’s nodding their heads and agreeing with whatever lame brained comment the judges make! I tweeted CAI and said while Nyle’s dance was great it’s not even close to being the best one ever and if she needed help remembering the other times that statement has been made I’d be more than happy to help her out!
I won’t be watching tonight either so I’ll find out on line! Still hoping Paige can pull it out but I can live with Nyle winning too! I think Mark will definitely caution Paige about what the outcome may be and in the end, I think Paige got plenty out of this experience both professionally and personally
You know, if we’d arrived here and it was too close to call because all three couples were terrific and TPTB had let the season unfold naturally, this would be great — it’s what you’d want in a finale.
Unfortunately, with all the pimping and manipulation, this is just all kinds of wrong for me. Especially since without all the game playing we’d have gotten a Paige-Wanya-Nyle final.
Ah well, it is what it is, at this point, I’ll just be happy if Golden Girl Ginger lands in 3rd because that’s already more than she deserved in my opinion.
I’m really hoping that Paige and Mark will be able to win the MBT tonight. They’ve been on the top of the leaderboard these past two weeks, and she has 4 points over Nyle and the ABC Princess (that’s what I call her, please don’t kill me!). But, hey, you never know what will happen. I’ll admit, if it really is a 3% difference between the three contestants, then called me a scared viewer. I’ve been voting my butt off for Paige these past few weeks, including last night, and I pretty much asked as many friends as possible to vote for her.
Paige and Mark deserve this win, 110%. I do like Nyle, but it’s Paige’s dances that I am always finding myself watching over and over again. Her salsa was fire, I don’t know what the heck Len was talking about. She is so consistent, and talented, and just… amazing! She and Mark together are amazing.
I’m really trying to be optimistic here and think happy thoughts about them taking it all (which I bet would make Mark’s birthday even more amazing), because they just simply deserve it, so much! If Ginger gets herself any higher than 3rd though… I bet I will be one of many unhappy fans, simply because she deserved to go home about 2 weeks ago.
Was really hoping either Paige or Nyle would have a killer freestyle so I could finally quit spliting my votes between them on the last week. Darned if they didn’t BOTH slay it(IMHO) As long as Ginger is 3rd,and they are top 2, I’ll be satisfied.
I would love to see Paige and Mark win, but the competition really is so close. From what I understand with the above statistics, the judges’ scores for the 24 Hour Fusion dance will influence tonight’s winning outcome moreso than usual. That concerns me because the judges, especially Len, are not inclined to give Paige any kind of a break. I think Paige should be up six points and not four, but it’s Len’s 9’s for her Tango and Salsa that’s keeping her score down. I’m keeping my fingers crossed big time for Paige and Mark, but I’m bracing myself for Nyle and Peta to win. Here’s hoping Paige’s UFC following are a dedicated bunch and voted big time for her because that is probably going to make the difference.
I’m so hoping Ginger wins she so deserves it and is such a special lady.
I’d be fine with either Paige or Nyle winning, but all throughout this season I have loved Nyle so I would love to see him and Peta walk away with that MBT! That being said, I would still be happy for Paige and Mark. If Ginger gets anything other than 3rd, I’m honestly not sure what I would do. Excited to see how it goes down tonight!
Also, thanks so much for all your hard work, Mods. It definitely doesn’t go unnoticed! Thanks! 🙂
I am with you all and hoping it is Paige for the win. Definitely a beautiful dancer and a joy to watch. Mark has really outdone himself in his coaching her. He has brought her to a higher level. Yes it is not about the pro, but it is the pro who gets the best results! For me, I am hoping it is Paige, Nyle and Ginger. We will soon find out.
Note: how many times in 22 seasons have we heard “the best dance ever in the history of this show”? The judges need to retire that statement!
Confirmed: Paige is dancing last again tonight via George Pennachio. The past 5 seasons in a row, the couple who went last on the finale night won.
I gave all my votes to Paige and Mark. I really hope they win. I watched all their dances again and Paige needs to win. She looks like a professional dancer and Mark’s choreography was by far the most memorable this season as well as the most difficult (although Lindsay had some great dances too). But Paige and Mark’s dances are the ones I remember. I loved her salsa last night!
Thank you to everyone at Pure DWTS for another great season and for all your hard work!
While Wanya and Lindsay were definitely missed last night. I think the correct two couples are still in contention. I would be very surprised if Ginger and Val could pull the upset. Personally, I’m rooting for Nyle and Peta as I think his history, story and platform are so inspirational and important. And his dancing was stellar. Yet, the scoring last night gives me pause. That said, Paige and maybe even more Mark are also deserving.
Here’s hoping for a Mark and Paige win tonight.
Other than Derek, Mark is the best choreographer on the show IMO. And I would really love to see him get another MBT.
I think Nyle is a lovely person, but I’ve not been wowed by his dancing and his technique has not been all there or consistent. (Carrie Ann believes his freestyle was the best in all 22 Seasons? I don’t think so.)
Derek’s absence on the show is clearly evident. I don’t mean to sound critical, but there’s not a dance this season, including the freestyles, that I’m going to want to go back and watch over and over again.
Anyway, Paige, unless I missed something, has been virtually flawless in her performances from the first week. That girl deserves the MBT.
It’s Gilles v Shawn all over again when it comes to how close the voting is. I’m not going to change my prediction that Nyle will win but I’d be more than happy if just like in Shawns season, the women just beats out the man.
Tina, I hope it’s true this time as well.
By the way, I just realized I didn’t even mention Val and Ginger, and I know why, there wasn’t enough to remember.
I haven’t agreed with many of Lens comments Whether it was his cushy cushy comments to Ginger/Val or his snarkyness with judges Paige/Mark’s dances. I’m not even going to start on the judges scores from week 1 to this finale. But, all my votes went to Paige/Mark last week and this week. Paige has nailed so many dances that I feel she deserves the MBT. Nile should come in a close 2nd, because of who he is and what he represents (like Amy Naoh). My feeling is that in a real ballroom dance competition, there would be an even and fair playing field. However, I think Nyle has a lesser impairment to deal with than Amy or Nosh. I think the judges have been stricter with him. I’m not saying it’s easy for Nyle, just different for him then previous ones.
In 3 hours the final 2 hours of DWTS starts and I sure hope Paige & Mark are holding that MBT at the end.
I voted for Nyle (though maybe not to the same number of votes in other weeks). As an avid watcher of Top Model, it’s been such a delight to see his journey since winning ANTM. I wouldn’t mind if Paige wins though.
I felt the same way last season. As a Backstreet fan, I voted for Nick, but I didn’t mind Bindi winning ’cause she did an amazing job. I was just so relieved that Alek came in 3rd. Alek was kind of like the Ginger of last season, but Ginger’s still a way better dancer, lol.
LeannC – about 50 times I would say. Probably twice a season.
If I were the pros on the show I think I would feel offended to some degree by Carrie anns comments and the producers should be ad well. She singled out a dance by an outside choreographer. I just think that is poor taste. It bugs me that all the pros are tired now, have an important dance and she just bails completely. I hope Paige and Mark win. While this season has not been as great as many previous seasons, I will miss this site and the mods until it revs up again. I’ll be back because of this site.
They keep saying they’re combining the scores and votes from last night and the votes from last week and tonight’s scores but no mention of last weeks scores in that mix?
They never do, Julia. I think they think it’s too complicated.