Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!
This was written during and after the first (HISTORIC) Presidential Debate. You’ve been warned. 🙂
I have a sniffing, loud guy in my ear, so I’m having a hard time concentrating, but how on earth is Terra two points ahead of Marilu?? This is a mystery to me. I think Marilu had a balance problem right at the beginning of her dance (she’s 64, after all), but that was a good dance. Then again, how did Laurie get a full three points more than her, lift and all?? And is that the first time Val’s ever actually been called on a lift? He’s done them before but I don’t remember him getting so nailed on it.
Anyway, I think Terra (and Laurie) did do a good job, I just don’t get the scoring two weeks in a row that insulates her. I’m afraid that once the people they want to leave, actually leave the scoring may change and that is fair to no one. It’s whiplash inducing for people who don’t know just how manipulated this show really is.
Anyway, here’s how it stacks up for this week, with an elimination tomorrow night.
First I calculated it as if the scores that the immune folks had zero percent of the votes and let me tell you, the margins were huge. There was no way that either Marilu or Terra were in any danger. Then, I remember that they *claim* that it’s the “total points awarded” – so I added those points back in but only did the match ups for those without immunity. And it’s not so clear cut when I do that.
Now, as usual, Rick is on the bottom.
I have to apologize. I’m trying to write this during and after the most disastrous presidential debate in modern history and I’m seriously having trouble focusing on anything other than that. But I have to try to finish it because I know I won’t have time to do it tomorrow.
FOCUS, Heidi!! 🙂
Alright, can Rick overcome a fairly small deficit and be safe tomorrow? Don’t count Emma and a happy go lucky, funny guy (who also happens to be a conservative) out of this competition. Here’s where Rick stands.
Rick only needs about 6,200 more votes per million votes cast than either Amber, Babyface or Ryan. This is a REALLY tough call. ANY other season, when Maks (yes, Maks, not Amber), Babyface or Ryan weren’t involved, I would say that absolutely Rick would be safe. But we are talking about those three contestants and pros. My gut is telling me that Maks and Amber might be in trouble…or perhaps Babyface. I just think that Rick is making a lot of hay with the audience. I’m dyed in the wool liberal and I like the hell out of the guy. That is extremely telling. I love Babyface, but he moved so small and really didn’t dance that well. Ryan was freakin’ hilarious in his package. Amber was somewhat forgettable. For that reason, I think it’s going to come down to Rick, Amber and Babyface.
But let’s say that Rick does managed to get the votes. How are Ryan, Amber and Babyface doing?
Now, as you might remember if you’ve been reading these posts for a while, Rick, Amber and Babyface only need ONE more vote than each other – that sentence was horrible grammatically, but there you go. I’m in a haze of orange. In this three way tie, I’m going to give it to Ryan who is still basking in the safety of public humiliation. If it’s between the three of them, I think that it will come down to Amber and Babyface with Amber winning out on the strength of Maks fanbase. If this turns out to be wrong, we’ll have to have another separate conversation about the strength of Maks’ fanbase. 😉
So, what happens at the end of the day? I think Marilu and Terra are safe. I’m still mystified by Terra’s scores, but it doesn’t matter yet. I really like Terra. She gets to the heart and she’s fun – and perhaps she’s getting the votes and that’s behind the judges scores. Or perhaps they just want her to survive the lesser dancers below her and Marilu. Who knows? I do think that Marilu gets the 6k plus to beat Terra if necessary based on her own demo and Derek’s fanbase. But I don’t think Rick gets the 22k to beat Terra, and I don’t think that Amber, Rick or Babyface get the 15.4k votes to beat Terra.
That leaves us with Rick, Babyface, Amber and Ryan. I think Ryan wins the three way tie between him, Amber and Babyface. That leaves us with Rick, Babyface and Amber. My gut says that Amber/Maks beat out Babyface/Allison, which would leave us with Rick and Babyface…and this is one tough call.
Rick needs to get at least 6,160 more votes per million votes cast than Babyface. Can he do it? Well, let’s just say that I would not be at all surprised to see Rick called safe first tomorrow night. Marilu or Terra next. I think it comes down to Rick, Babyface and Amber and that Babyface will end up leaving us tomorrow night.
I was thinking Amber or Rick could be going but Babyface does make sense if I’m not the only one in finding him completely forgettable so far. I often don’t even remember he’s on the show. Still not counting the other two out though.
Thanks, Heidi, great post as usual. I am not sure what I always wait more for – the prediction or just the post itself.
Last night before looking at the numbers, I thought it would be Babyface or Amber. After looking at your numbers, I see how it could be Rick.
My gut is still saying Babyface or Amber, but Rick wouldn’t surprise me anymore. If I had to pick one, I guess I’d go with Amber because I’ve always felt the C brothers fanbase is overestimated. They are loud on Twitter, Instagram, etc, but I’m not sure how many there are of them.
Thank you, Heidi! I’m going to guess that Ryan doesn’t get the votes between himself, Amber, and Babyface. I just don’t think he danced that well and even though he has Cheryl as a pro, I think there are just as many people who are non-Ryan supporters as there are supporters. I think the sympathizers showed their support last week and have moved on. Amber has Maks’ fans and Vals’ fans votes this week, and I really think Babyface danced better than Ryan. I think there is a certain demographic that will vote for Babyface too. I agree about Rick! He’s so darn likeable! So I’m going to go out on a limb, and say Ryan goes home!
Great numbers post, Heidi. I think it’s between Rick and Amber going home and I hope it’s Amber. She’s been awful the last two weeks. Rick has had major issues too but, I’m loving him and Emma. They are funny and he’s giving it his all.
@Laura, I agree. Although Tom just tweeted saying that the voting was so close the producers had to wait for online voting to end today so that makes things interesting for sure. I honestly think it’s gonna be between Rick and Amber still though.
I don’t think Rick is going anywhere. I actually put all my votes to him last night so he wouldn’t go before Amber. Like before I put votes toward Maureen because no way I wanted to see her leave before Jake. I think Rick has a good shot at outlasting Maureen, a fair shot outlasting Ryan and maybe a slimmer shot against Babyface. Enthusiasm & likability goes a long way. Bill Engvall.
Between Babyface, Ryan and Amber: Babyface is sweet but in the nice, quiet way which gets him lost for me in the charisma and fun factor of a Rick or the boyish, goofy, Ryan. Then there’s Amber who compared to Babyface and Ryan would seem to be nowhere near the voters choice, particularly with the twerking bit in her dance. That’s just not a DWTS vote getter, imo. I think it’s going to be Amber but you never know.
Awesome post Heidi. I want it to be Amber, even though I absolutely love her, because I really want to see more of Babyface and she just doesn’t seem to be improving. With Babyface going first, not doing so well, and with the Maks fanbase I can see how it could be him.
I honestly don’t see it being Rick. I’m another diehard liberal who is loving him and I think he still has another week or two. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he goes, though.
I have no idea how’s its going to turn out- I’m 50/50 on Amber or Babyface. I actually wish I would have voted for Babyface now.
As a liberal, I like Rick too. He tries hard, doesn’t take himself too seriously and appreciates Emma, and that goes a long way in my eyes.
I’ll miss Babyface if he goes. He’s my eye candy this season. He seems like a pretty reserved guy, and that combined with so many big personalities this season makes him seem to get lost in the crowd.
Is it just me or is Marilu’s scores being lowballed. I can’t figure out why some of the celebs are getting 8’s for their dances and Marilu gets 7?
I know it’s early in the season but I’m a little worried Marilu may not make the finals after all. I had her as a shoe-in before the show started & I love her. If that happens & it comes down to a 4 team finale then I think it’s shaping up to be Laurie, Hinch, Calvin and either Jana or Terra for the 4th spot.
@Maria, I think she can still make it, she just needs a breakthrough week which next week being most memorable year I can see it happening. Just gotta keep voting and stay positive.
For the finale, I’m betting on Laurie, James, Calvin, and Marilu. Honestly, I though Amber would be a mid pack finisher at first. But after three weeks of pretty bad scores, there’s no way she will stay around.
I hope its either Babyface, Rick or Terra that gets eliminated. I know it won’t be Terra, even though I don’t think she has the voters. Unfortunately I am betting it will be Amber that leaves us, she has betting getting too low of scores. I Love Amber, since Laurie got immunity all 24 of my votes went to Amber. I am not voting for Maks I am voting for Amber, I always vote for the Celeb and not the pro. I sure hope my votes helped Amber make it through. Even if she goes it was good seeing her on, she is trying hard. Marilu isn’t getting lowballed she got what she deserved all 7’s.
I can’t decide between Amber and Babyface going home – not sure which one would have the bigger fanbase. Amber looked cute as a brunette. I really like Rick’s personality so I hope he sticks around even though he’s not a great dancer. I enjoy watching Terra too.
As long as Marilu and Derek are safe, I’m good!
It’s really hard to call if it’s going to be Amber or Babyface going home. I really think it will be one of them, though Ryan and Rick are outside chances. I just think that Ryan, despite where he was coming in, is making a better impression than Amber is in the competition, and Babyface I think is getting lost in the shuffle. I think it really comes down to Maks’/the Fam’s fanbase. Because no one had to vote for Val, more would be coming Maks’ way. However, probably a good chunk of Laurie’s support is coming from places *other* than Val’s fanbase, so who knows how many votes actually swung Maks’ way. The thing is both Maks and Val have been out in the first two or three weeks before – Maks went out 2nd and 4th when he was probably in the heyday of his popularity, so who knows.
Derek not making the finals with Marilu isn’t exactly a disaster, not this season. This season is shaping up to be a lot tighter than we originally anticipated. When it first started the only sure thing was Laurie, but it turns out that Hinch, Calvin, Jana, Terra and Marilu are all quite good and all, I think, could be contenders. It’s going to come down to their pros in some cases, and in other cases it’s going to be down to who the audience makes a connection with. They are really pushing Terra right now – but it’s only week 3. I think of that group, Jana could be in trouble because Gleb isn’t really pulling it out for her yet. He doesn’t likely have the time to figure it out that Derek probably does, and he doesn’t have the fanbase.
I’m starting to think the final four will be Laurie, Hinch, Calvin and…_____? 🙂 But who knows?
I with you Vogue, I hope Amber goes home. I sat in the same area as Rick Perry’s family last week at the show and he is so much fun. He is having the time of his life, and isn’t this what the show was all about, teaching someone to dance that has no experience. It seems they are pushing the more experience the better. He would run over and pick up his granddaughter and you could tell how much fun he was having, hope he stays a few more weeks. I talked to Emma, she is an absolute doll.
@PH, this is probably one of the best seasons talent wise we’ve had in awhile. I wouldn’t mind if Marilu made it to the semi-finals if not the finals because that’s a long road and they’ll have accomplished so much by then.
I bet they were all so cute. Thanks for sharing, Julie.
Yeah, I’d be happy if Gleb made at least top 5 would prefer 4th. Enough that he made in impact that he’ll be back and have more opportunity to build a fanbase here and show what he can accomplish. I like Jana but I get why some are meh on her as well. I’m more in it for Gleb. I think TPTB will stick with giving him female contenders like that’s his role now, the hot pro but one who can show depth as well.
I do love Terra. I think she’s so entertaining, endearing, funny, talented, and genuine. I have no problem if she makes top 4. And major props to Sasha. I was indifferent on him before but it takes some serious talent, self-awareness and maturity to do what he’s done with Terra. He and Emma are so lovely and have such decent character that I think Terra & Rick benefit far more than they might have otherwise with different pros.
Idk why but for some reason I’m still thinking they might have just thrown away the winners’ points from the elimination leaving the huge margins between the couples at risk……
I do t want Babyface to leave, I think he has potential, but I think he might. He is not very memorable. I constantly forget he is on the show. but this cast is pretty great overall so I Guess each week is gonna be tough, may as well start now.
I suppose the whole tension between Marilu and Derek was scripted but geez, I fail to see how “wrong” Marilu went on the dance.
What I did observe was far too much space between them on the natural turns and the promenade kicks. I wasn’t overly impressed with Val and Laurie, but they had much better dance position and contra body movement. So I don’t think i can blame Marilu for choreo choices that take the partners too far apart while dancing.
When someone you’ve been watching on a TV show (and other places) for YEARS suddenly acts much differently than what you’re used to seeing, then you HAVE to recognize the not-so-subtle hand of the editors. I have a feeling we might hear about it in Derek’s blog this week.
You people REALLY need to start watching UNReal – it’s about a Bachelor like show, but you’ll get the drift. One of the creators is a former field producer for the Bachelor. It’s quite illuminating.
The ONLY problem I see between Marilu and Derek is that she needs to get out of her head and just dance. She self critical and seems afraid of making Derek look bad or letting him down. Sadly I think the producers see that too and have latched onto it because it fits their narrative. Derek can and will turn it around but it ticks me off that he even has to. Hopefully they can both relax they’re doing fine.
I’m a huge UNReal fan, although I felt the sophomore season was a little shaky at times. Constance Zimmerman and Shiri Appleby freaking rule. Okay, enough fangirling.
Reality shows are storyboarded before the season even gets started. They want the show to unfold the way they want week to week. They’ll get their production people to goad the talent into making revealing and interesting sound bites and use those to shape the particular story they want that week. These people are master manipulators.
They also take things said out of context and present them in a different, sometimes more inflammatory way, which is what I believe happened with Derek.
They can take anything a person says and spin it to fit whatever narrative they want. Apparently their narrative for Tuesday night was “Ooh, there’s tension between Derek and Marilu!”.
That is true, Narice – but I can understand it. Derek has set his own bar so freakin’ high that it has to be intimidating as hell, especially if you came on to the show already being a huge fan.
I do wish Constance would have won the Emmy. Her and Shiri are just amazingly good. I’ve loved Constance since Entourage.
Last night’s episode kind of proved why ABC once thought it would be a good idea to get rid of the results show. So much unbelieveable filler. Why can’t all results show from every competition show just be half an hour?
I once thought it would be awesome to go to Maks and Val’s tour, but once again it’s always the messy, rushed style dances that can be very annoying. It’s not as cool as they think they it is. This is more Maks’ style, and it’s why I was more than ok with him no longer being on the show. Even his own dancing failed to impress several times with Amber this week. I’m sure that if they do it again and I get to go I’ll enjoy it as it would be live, but as far as these tv opportunities they get and clips they show here and there, no, I don’t like it.
Anyway, good that Rick got sent home. Out of these contestants, Amber or Vanilla Ice should be next.
And finally, YES, watch UnReal and yes, Zimmer deserved that Emmy.
I don’t think Marylu had missteps nor did I detect lack of confidence, but I do think she had difficulty maintaining the frame she went a little wonky and soft because she was so far apart from. Derek. When a new dancer is that far apart in hold issues happen . It becomes more difficult for the pro to maintain control to correct in the moment. I also think she may have a personal space issue. I could see Derek perhaps telling her that close body contact is necessary she gets weirded out and he says ok we will try it your way, she is happy initially but then here is the result. What you heard on camera could have been teacher frustration with knowing what’s right, but allowing your celb to dance the way she feels most comfortable. Doing it better in rehearsal is still doing it incorrectly. Dancing Tango is unlike other ballroom in hold . Turns and movement you are thigh to thigh, which can freak some people out. In order to make those turns exciting the only way to do it is in proper hold.
Genuinely surprised me that elimination and I never thought I’d say that considering Rick was the weakest dancer. I’m sad about it to be honest, Amber should have gone instead.
I think, Casanova, that you are just talking to yourself at this point and you should consider moving on to a different topic, since I don’t see anyone responding to your…whatever it is. You’re injecting a lot of fantasy into what might have/could have happened and that’s really not helpful since we won’t actually know until Derek tells us. So, move on.
I’m huge fan of Derek’s, but I don’t always vote for him and his partner if there were better dancers that night or something happened that was unfair. Pairing her against Laurie was unfair. I think Marilu is doing a really good job and I like her a lot, but the competition is strong this year. She needs a breakout dance pretty soon to stay in. Maureen and Calvin had theirs this week.
But, I think Amber will go before her and then maybe Babyface and Ice. Laurie or James, then Calvin will be the top three. My best hope for Marilu is 4th, which is still very good. Ice also needs a breakout dance with content.
Maureen isn’t even in the same universe as Marilu – that is quite plain to see. I’m not worried about her outlasting Marilu in the slightest.