Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Another week, another bout of wackiness when it comes to judges scoring – luckily not as bad as in previous weeks. Well, perhaps I should say ‘not as widespread’ as in previous weeks because it was still pretty bad in at least one instance.
If Len had been around this week, Jana would have gotten a 7 or 8 for her Argentine Tango – I think you can count on it. He’s shown recently that he doesn’t limit that just to Derek’s partners. But he wasn’t there so the travesty of Jana getting a perfect score while the better AT is three points lower. Why? Well, I suspect that Jana has been on the bubble and the leader board this week reflects the top half (to the judges) and the bottom half…with Marilu kinda straddling the middle ground, which is quite dangerous. The judges, I think, have roughly grouped the couples in that way – with the possibility of Calvin falling out of favor and Marilu rising. I think the jury is out for them on those two couples. Everyone else is either top three or bottom three.
I don’t think the judges are going to get exactly what they appear to want – one bad dance from Jana, which is scored accurately, and I think she might be toast. Of course, it depends on how long they can keep her safe – because you can be damn sure she’s safe this week. I would be very surprised if she were to be eliminated. For those wondering *how safe is safe*, for Jana to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:
- Ryan and Terra BOTH would have to get 32.8k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Maureen has to get 29.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
- Marilu has to get 19.7k more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
- Calvin AND Laurie BOTH would have to get 9.9k more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
- James would have to get 6.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jana.
I think James, Calvin and Laurie are probably beating her, but I would be surprised if anyone else is, with her getting a perfect score. So, I’m calling Jana safe.
I’m also thinking that Calvin, Laurie and James are safe – think those three are the vote getters, although Calvin may be on the low end of that triad, simply because the sheeple have watched him get underscored for WEEKS now. I think when it eventually comes down to him and Marilu, whoever has the higher score will likely be safe. But that is likely at least two weeks away. Hopefully. 🙂 And if Jana ends up with the same score as them, she will likely be the one to depart.
So that leaves us with Marilu, Maureen, Terra and Ryan. Terra and Ryan are on the bottom and they don’t have to do too much work to be safe.
As you see from the above table, they really don’t have to do a lot to get past Maureen. If each of them get 4k more votes per million votes cast than her, Maureen could be toast. But Marilu is in a dangerous spot – those two need 13.2k more votes per million votes cast to get past her, and while I don’t think BOTH of them are doing it, one of them might be. Hard to say. But I jump ahead. I’m inclined to think that Terra and Ryan both are getting the votes to beat Maureen.
Let’s assume they do – what about Maureen?
If Ryan and Terra get past Maureen, Maureen would need nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than Marilu to stay over her. I don’t believe she’s getting that. Both women are in the same demo, but Maureen is kinda needy and the audience doesn’t generally go for that – and she has Artem while Marilu has Derek. Huge difference in fanbases there.
That 10k votes makes me think that Marilu is safe. My gut says that Ryan and Terra aren’t getting past her either – I could be wrong, of course. And Marilu needs for Maureen, Ryan and Terra to not get the votes to beat her because I don’t think Marilu is beating anyone above her this week.
They’ve just put a nice, huge cushion between Marilu and those above her. This is why I say Marilu is middle of the pack in the judge’s eyes – and Calvin could rejoin her in that middle unless he is nearly perfect in the coming weeks. He’s certainly not getting the slack that Laurie, James and Jana have been getting. Or should I say “was” in the case of Laurie? Nah, I’m quite sure they’ll be back to pimping her as soon as the lower tier are gone. While I’m talking about Laurie, James and Jana…
As you can see from all the previous tables, these three are going nowhere this week.
So, if Jana, James, Laurie, Calvin and Marilu are all safe, that brings us back to Terra, Ryan and Maureen. Less than four thousand votes.
Ryan and Terra only need ONE vote per million votes cast for one to stay over the other. Who’s getting the one vote? No clue – I would guess Terra, but it’s hard to say. Rio seems like eons ago now. I think it’s more likely that both of them are getting the less than 4k votes per million votes cast to stay over Maureen – and that’s what would have to happen. Ryan and Terra need the 4k votes, and Maureen doesn’t get the 10k she needs to get past Marilu.
And this is my guess. Maureen goes home…and I bet they put Marilu in jeopardy for a change. Just for excitement value. Maureen is my first guess. If not Maureen, then I think Ryan. But dang, my gut is really telling me Maureen.
What does YOUR gut say?
Great numbers post as always. I threw all my votes to Calvin last week, and now I’m regretting not voting for Terra. I really want her to stay around (and for Sasha to finally make it past team dances week). Now that I see the tiny margins between her and Maureen, I can take a breather and think that she’s safe. Maureen is the weakest dancer left, then probably Ryan. Even if Terra is safe for this week though, she’s gonna have to pull out something like her samba to buy herself another one.
I agree it’s probably Maureen and while I’d prefer Ryan to leave (nothing against him I just like everyone else that’s left more) I think she’ll be able to leave with her head held high. If nothing else she outlasted Florence (in terms of number of weeks anyway) so she’ll have full bragging rights there. 😛
I do have a feeling that if Maureen does leave this week they’ll put the rest of her team in jeopardy with her which may lead to complacency from some fans of Team Future’s contestants and I think one of them will leave Week 8 but not sure who yet. And I’m looking too far ahead anyway. 😛
I’m kind of sad because I think Terra is going home, I want Sasha to get deeper into the competition and I think he’s done a great job with her. Maureen seems so fragile and it’s uncomfortable to watch them together so I wouldn’t be sad to see them go.
I think if there hadn’t been four male celebs gone right off the bat that Ryan would be gone this week, but because of that, I think it’ll be Maureen.
Ryan is just getting more of an “aw, shucks, he’s dumb but isn’t that endearing” edit whereas I am seeing people turn on Maureen more and more and feeling bad for Artem and wanting him free.
I’m not sure about Terra, though. She essentially had the forgettable dance of the week in a way, and I have no idea how she’s doing with the general public.
I want to say Maureen will be gone but I’m afraid for Terra It seems like there is always an upset on Team dance night Remember Willow in Season 20 and Sasha has always gone home on Team night as well,although this season may be different Just a thought. I don’t think the upset will be Marilu bc Derek is too valuable to the show and he has never finished lower than 6 ( 4th since season 6 I believe) Plus they know viewers are lost without Derek, more so without Mark. Agreed if Len were judging last week Jana certainly would not have gotten a perfect score ( Not enough Argentine Tango content and too hot and spicy like Paige last season )
I’m hoping that Maureen goes – I’d rather both Terra and Ryan stick around instead of her. I think they’re probably both getting the votes to do so, though I’m more worried for Terra than Ryan. His running spot was better, and he has Cheryl. Plus, he was having fun during the dance, while Terra seemed worried and unsure of herself (moreso than in any other dance she’s done). But hopefully Maureen will have been just high enough and forgettable enough to be the one going home.
I expect that Maureen is going home even thought I’ve thought Maureen was going home for the past 4 weeks and she’s survived. But those margins are tiny and I can’t see Ryan and Terra not getting the votes to pass her. Both seem well over with the general audience and I think everyone’s had enough of Mo’s overdramatics, myself included. I don’t think she’s a worse dancer than Ryan, but I prefer Ryan’s personality way more so I’m happy for him to stick around a little longer.
I can see it being Terra. She was very forgettable last week and had a bad running spot. I also don’t think she has that much of a fan base.
I would love for Ryan to go. He’s seem like an ok guy but I don’t think he has improved at all and it just seems like the typical Cheryl season with a mediocre partnership with a good looking guy.
Of the 3 I would love most for Maureen to stay. She is a basket case of emotions and I love watching it LOL.
Ryan is committed, improving, has great chemistry w/ Cheryl, likeable, a non-dancer who literally said he had to learn to breathe on land since he holds his breath for 4 minutes while swimming…the essence of the the dwts “journey” & mostly he is having fun, making him fun to watch. Hence, I hope he stays to the finals. Like Maureen, but Artem is a bore & seems to suck the fun out of her dwts experience. Wouldn’t mind if the amazing Terra went home bc/ she has a new born waiting for her…no small consolation prize.
(Just an aside; James of course is safe, but he should tone down the Canadian pride If he wants more votes…it’s still dwts USA…think he may not be getting the votes as Tom has twice asked James if he’s amazed by his performance & Julian exaggerated when she called him the best male dancer.)
I would be utterly shocked if Ryan made the finals with this group of celebs.
And most viewers probably don’t even know James is Canadian – and I doubt it would prevent anyone from voting for him.
My head says Maureen, but I thought Maureen was going home last week. I’ve actually enjoyed her and Artem, but with the bad packages, crying, and a less known pro, I think its her.
My second guess would actually be Terra. For some reason I feel like Ryan is really growing on people, and Cheryl IMO is working well with what she has. Terra and Sasha are great and Sasha’s choreo has been excellent, but I wonder if they are slipping through the cracks? I also think as well as Marilu is doing (and she has a wonderful trajectory- I love her more and more every week) her dance was kind of forgettable and without Derek she might be in trouble.
Personally, and I know its not happening, I would like to see Jana go. Her dancing is meh, Gleb’s choreo has been a letdown, and I’m just not feeling them in general.
As a Canadian, I wish I could vote, they took that away this year, even though they definitely allowed the Aussies to vote for Bindi another non-American, I didn’t hear anyone telling her to tone down her Aussie pride or her accent… and that other race car driver Helio was a Brazilian and it was kind of a voting frontier back then where lots of international votes would flow in.
I was disappointed a natural fanbase for Hinch was shut out, even though the show is number 1 in its timeslot in Canada. They could have drawn from roughly 2 million viewers. On a show that averages around 10 million in the US, the tiny Canadian population could have helped him out. If the show is over-hyping him, I can’t blame Hinch for that.
@Casanova, there’s the VPN vote. Courtney could tell you all about it, with the VPN, you can vote online and lie to the computer that you’re American.
Just excellent again, Miss Heidi. And my gut thinks Maureen is going home too.
Casanova, go to Tunnelbear.com and read all about it. I love it.
I want Calvin and James top 2 but now that some people are mentioning it they have been trying to MAKE JAMES HAPPEN more than others…The hyping and stuff and now I AM wondering if he is honestly getting the votes everyone thinks he is…Of course I am TEAMLINDSATRON first before TEAMSTOPANDGO and I was so scared of Calvin being in bottom too I rallied friends and family to call and then voted myself the next day and got him around 4,000 votes because I never want to see him in bottom 2!!! Usually DWTS will try to hint for a favorite couple even if they are good dancers because they aren’t getting the votes they thought they would.James has been getting overscored by a point or two recently and Calvin underscored by a few points but he hasn’t been getting the publicity James and Sharna has…THEN the whole Sharna has never won a MBT on the USA version like Lindsay hasn’t either…Now I’m not sure who is really getting the votes and I don’t want James as a shocking elimination because he has been in jeopardy before too but I think it was after jeopardy that they started hyping him.DWTS is too much! I know they are safe this week but the comments questioning who is getting the votes is scary.I Definitely hope Calvin is safe over Marilu in the future and that James is getting the votes over Jana the new puppet they are hyping smh! I know you cant base it off of social media but 60k Instagram followers from james over Jana’s millions scare me and the demo is mostly women and they may know a singer more than a NFL Player and an Indy driver.If Jana is going to creep into top three she better take Laurie out with her because Calvin and James CAN’T GO! :'(
Tbh..id rather Maureen go,then terra. Either Maureen or Ryan. I may be in the minority but I like jana,I think this whole situation should hopefully help her in her personal life and hopefully boost her self esteem. She seems to be having a good time. But overall good luck to everybody
These numbers posts always make my head spin so kudos to you for slogging through it every season.
I think you’re probably right that Maureen is going just because of the unflattering edits she’s been getting. I do like her but her fragility always makes me worry if she will get through each week and that is not fun to watch as a viewer. However Ryan is just not a good dancer and I’m over Cheryl dancing around him still, halfway through the season. So it’s a toss up for me as to who I’d want to go.
My gut says Tera only because Maureen has survived worse scoring situations. I think she may have one more week in her. I agree re the edits though. They are painful and Wade is clearly loving every second.
I’m also in the minority here, but I really like Jana and the AT she and Gleb performed. I prefer her over James, but not over Calvin who I would love to see make it to the finals and who is my personal favorite right now for the MBT. Re James, I thought Julianne’s comment was very fishy and hardly random. Have no idea where she was going with it though. I would not be surprised either way with him, and the same goes for Jana. Both would be a shocking eliminate tomorrow, but not in a week or two. Of course, scoring will be in play too.
@Rose1, you’re not the only one, i liked it too. I am hoping she keeps up her momentum and makes it to at least the semi finals.
I regret not voting for Terra. I really want to see her stay a few more weeks, although I understand that she probably won’t make it as the fourth couple in the Finals now that the hammer has finally dropped. I’m still hoping she can hold on until the quarterfinals. My perfect scenario would be Maureen leaving this week, Ryan leaving the week after, then Marilu. Afterwards, I would like Jana to go before Terra, but I know that’s realistically not going to happen. However, I realistically can hope that Terra is going after Ryan and Maureen, so I might be throwing more votes to her in the coming weeks.
Totally agree with every word from @Casanova #12.
I actually fear James isn’t getting as many votes as I hope he is because I love watching him and Sharna so much. Beyond his dancing, becoming a fave partnership of mine. But taking away international votes really hurts him IMO and I do fear from some of the over the top comments from the judges about he’s the one to beat and Julianne’s he’s the best male pro ever TPTB know he won’t make it to the end are are setting up a truly shocking and disappointing pre-finals exit. I sure hope I’m wrong, but that’s my gut feeling unfortunately. I hope I’m wrong and he’s actually getting so many votes they are hyping their winner. That would be awesome.
@LR I guess there is an opportunity to vote via VPN which is cool and all, and thank you for the tips folks. But overall it amounts to going around the system instead of being invited to vote. The casual viewer won’t know about it and when they dial and are unable to vote, or shut out of the abc website or even facebook they just won’t bother. It is a shame. If I wanted to vote for Canadians Pam Anderson, Robert Herjavac, Tommy Chong, or Cameron Mathieson, even Chris Jericho who wrestled in Canada, or Doug Flutie who played Canadian Football when they were on, hey no problem, but it meant nothing since none of them got anywhere near finalist. The only one with that kind of potential is Hinch.
I think James is doing great in voters. my guess is they’re starting to highlight him a bit more because he’s the not-yet-announced special guest for the tour this time.
Side note: Has anyone been following Bing’s predictions this season? I haven’t since spring but someone pointed out to me that they’re strange this week. In the past they’ve listed a bunch of people as Safe, has maybe two “in danger” and the last couple “eliminated”. This week they have just Terra in danger and everyone else safe with no one listed as eliminated so I’m wondering if this style of prediction is the new norm for them and they’re saying the predict a Terra exit or if there were errors with the predictions for some of the others?
Julia, Last week Bing had Marilu and Ryan in danger all the way until Monday when all the sudden Amber was the only one in danger. They really have no idea. Lol.
Yeah Bing don’t have a clue. Everytime I’ve looked there in the past they’ve been wrong. Think the last time I looked was when they predicted Paige to win last seasons finale following the Monday night.
I think that Maureen is going tonight, Ryan next week, and then from week 9 on it’s going to get tough. I feel that Maureen and Ryan are the two weaker links left that should’ve left weeks ago.
Maureen goes home tonight, I don’t think she or Artem have the voter base to carry her past Terra or Ryan.