DWTS Season 23, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!
This has the potential to be an interesting week, from the standpoint of who goes home. The margins are relatively small (for this late in the game) and this could get REAL real fast. We can hope.
But first, Courtney commented on the fact that Jana has been in or near jeopardy quite a few times now. If you want to read the research I did on Jeopardy a few seasons back, please do so before spouting off and telling me it means nothing. Anyway, I went back and looked at that post, and sonic did a little work up for me as well which included more recent seasons. Anyway, my original conclusions haven’t fallen apart with the arrival of Rob Wade. It’s still true that if you make multiple appearances in jeopardy you’re more likely than not to be eliminated – often soon. This is even more true if you are the last person to be called safe. Being the last to be called safe sometimes gives the couple the kick they need to last a couple weeks – but after a second time? No. Lots and lots of people have made two appearances in jeopardy and were last to be called safe. What appears to be true is that if you are last to be called safe twice, you don’t win the show. That has happened ONCE in 23 seasons – Rumer Willis. Coincidence? I think not. Prior to Season 17, if you had only been in Jeopardy and were last to be called safe even one time, you didn’t win the show – with 3 exceptions: Donald, JR and Jennifer Grey, but her season was really strange in that all of the 5 were in jeopardy most often while the rest weren’t. That season they seemed to be trying to keep the eliminee a surprise all the time by putting the top people in jeopardy. An experiment, if you will.
As I was saying…five people have been in jeopardy twice and called safe last and have gotten 2nd place – and that’s not really very many when you consider that 24 couples over 23 seasons were the last to be called safe twice. This is the long way of saying that no, Jana is not going to win the show. But further, it’s likely that she only gets as far as 3rd or 4th place (maybe only 5th). Why do I say that when five people have two “last safe” calls and get to second place? Because Jana is up to THREE. This is a much more rare occurrence. I hypothesize that the reason some people get three is because a combination of over scoring and jeopardy are used to keep those people around long enough to have three instances of “last safe”. Normally it’s two and yer gone. But look at Jana’s scores this week. Two 40’s?? That was a tad ridiculous, all things considered…like the dancing. Who are the people who have had three or more instances where they were in jeopardy and last to be called safe??
- Hope and Maks (3)
- Bill and Emma (4)
- Bristol and Mark (3)
- Candace and Mark (3)
- Carlos and Witney (3)
Gee, one of these things is not like the other! All of these couples, save one, had some work done to keep them safe. Well, I should qualify that – I remember Courtney and I complaining A LOT about Hope, Bristol and Carlos being overscored so they would stick around longer. I don’t remember it as much with Candace. Bill – I think calling him safe last became kind of a game to the producers – they wanted to see how many times they could do it because his reaction was so funny. Now, you may ask about another couple or two who was pimped to get them to stick around longer. Like Chelsea Kane – last to be called safe twice. You can check out Sonic’s work, below, and form your own conclusions.
It’s my opinion that Jana now firmly fits in the above category of pimpage and jeopardy being used to keep her around over other couples. And I also think she’s going home either this Monday or the following one, unless their long game of getting rid of Calvin actually works. Like it did with Marilu.
Is this a guarantee? Of course not – it just a bunch of really persuasive facts. In looking at who has multiple instances of being last to be called safe, it seems that most of them were people they wanted to keep around. Yeah, it’s an early warning system to their fans – but you only need one of those if you’re in danger of being eliminated, right? Right.
So now to this past week of this season. Their goal is obviously to get rid of Terra. They called her safe fairly early last week (like they had been doing with Marilu for WEEKS), and they stuck Jana in jeopardy. To me, that means Jana is not getting the votes. I suppose they could do that to her simply for the sake of Drama – but why would they do that? She’s a bit of a non-event. She’s not one of the huge stars that come on this show and can generate a ton of talk. Although her personal life has done that a bit, it’s nothing compared to the days of old on this show. Putting James in jeopardy would cause DRAMA (look for him to be in jeopardy this coming week, by the way). Jana ain’t James. No, Jana in jeopardy is a shot across the bow to her fans, trying to generate more votes. So, did it work?
James is at the bottom (so not a big deal) with Calvin and Terra one point above him. Then Laurie and Jana at 80 totally ridiculous points. I’m not a Val fan, but he did FAR better on that Argentine Tango than Gleb did with their Jazz (I mean, Jizz, tm Courtney) – I can see Laurie getting a 40 being reasonable, although I thought she had some balance and placement issues. But I can live with a 40 for that dance. I would have given it a 39, but whatever. But that contemporary dance was just….horrendous. Both Val and Gleb should be embarrassed by that totally cliché, trite, faux emotional dance. A 40 is bordering on obscene. But when you can’t get away with handing out 8’s to Terra because her dance was too good, and you can’t give out 8’s to either Calvin or James for the same reason, you HAVE TO give Jana all tens. Since Laurie was with her in the contemporary, she gets them too. There has to be a buffer to try to save Jana – James and Calvin are likely safe. The people in trouble are Terra and Jana – and they want Jana (Gleb) in the finale. So, Jana gets perfect scores.
Crazy? Not really. Are the judges this clever? Well, this ain’t even math from where they are sitting. They likely know that James and Calvin are doing well, so when both didn’t dance up to their usual they can hand out 9s without fear. Terra kills it twice and is underscored both times. Jana doesn’t even do as well as Terra and gets two perfect scores. When your goal is to get rid of Terra, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist (or a geologist) to figure out how to get it done. You hope. 🙂
So James is on the bottom and most likely in no danger whatsoever. But what does he have to do?
Yeah, Terra or Calvin would likely go before James. He only needs 2,300 more votes per million votes cast to beat them – which is actually nothing. James is so safe – I don’t even hesitate to say that he being eliminated this week would be the biggest shocker ever.
That brings us to Calvin and Terra.
Whoever gets one more vote per million votes cast between those two would be safe. I could certainly be wrong (and I would not be surprised to see Calvin and Jana in jeopardy), but I think Calvin is getting that vote over Terra, which would make him safe.
I also think that Laurie the ringer is very safe. That leaves us with Jana and Terra. So just how likely is it that Jana goes home? Well, look at it this way. ALL of the following things have to happen for Jana to go home:
- James has to get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
- Terra AND Calvin have to get 13,300 more votes per million votes cast than Jana, AND;
- Jana does NOT get the one more vote per million votes cast than Laurie.
That list is pretty short and not very good news for Jana. Normally I would say that Terra doesn’t stand a chance against this group, but the judges and producers are just trying way too hard with Jana. Terra was called safe early this past week and Jana was put in jeopardy – and it wasn’t the first time but the THIRD.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that I think Jana might get the boot this week. It will be close, and I could be wrong. If I’m wrong about Jana it’s probably Terra. I hope not. If I had been thinking clearly, I would have thrown my votes to Terra instead of James, since James is unlikely to be going anywhere this week. But alas, I wasn’t.
So there you have it. Am I right or wrong?
Just for grins, I’m going to predict that they put either James and Jana in jeopardy, or Terra and Jana in jeopardy. I think they get more out of the James in jeopardy thing, but if their little hearts are set on Laurie winning, they’ll go Terra and Jana. If James IS winning and they’re cool with that, they’ll put him in jeopardy.
Responding to my own post to say a third “jeopardy” option for this week occurred to me. If Jana is getting the boot and they’re desperate for Laurie to win the show, she’ll be in Jeopardy with Jana. Just occurred to me while laying in bed this morning. 🙂
Yeah… Just looking at these numbers if James goes home it will be far and away the biggest shocking elimination in all 23 seasons of the show. Obviously we don’t know how the others are doing in votes but wow
My votes all season have been going to Marilu and Derek when they got eliminated I voted for Terra in hopes I can mess with the producers manipulation and having Jana make the finals.I hope it was enough.
Fascinating as always, Miss Heidi. Last week’s elimination was so hard to watch. It’s going to be hard this week too. I’m going with Jana and Terra in jeopardy with Terra going home (adding: cries, I don’t want Gleb gone yet. No please noooo lol).
I threw all my votes to Calvin this week (as I have for most weeks), and with four email accounts, I sent a total of 30 votes his way, sure hope that helped. Season 23 is yet to have an elimination they call ‘shocking’, Vanilla Ice sorta counted, but that was so early in the competition, and ‘shocking’ eliminations can’t come until later. After doing the numbers myself, and having looked at your numbers, it might not be too far of a stretch to have a dream finale of Laurie, James, Calvin, and Terra.
I threw votes to both James and Terra (I power vote so it was a few hundred this week) even though I had a strong feeling Terra would leave Week 10. But now I’m getting the feeling Calvin could be in some trouble. I was confident he was getting the one vote to beat Terra but it seems he was kinda forgettable to a lot of people this week and hasn’t been getting a lot of love on Facebook. Well he sort of has bit it’s been more like “I’m voting for James and want him, Laurie, and Calvin in the final 3!” and not so much “Calvin is my favorite so I’m voting for him!” like I have with everyone else remaining. It’s similar to what I was seeing with Wanyá last season. It could mean nothing though, but I have a gut feeling if he doesn’t get eliminated on Monday he will the first night of the finals.
I actually agree with PH that this is Laurie’s or James’s week to appear in jeopardy!
@Julia: I don’t know why but I’ve always felt Calvin is safe. His audience is a silently voting one. He could totally be in jeopardy last week since his and Jana’s scores were same. I actually think he can possibly bump James out of the top 2 against Laurie and take his place as well :p
I think Jana could be the one this week, mainly because Gleb doesn’t have the fan base the other pros have yet. For different reasons, this is reminding me a lot of Maria Menounos season where she was consistently given 10s when so many felt they weren’t deserved. Jana is in my top three favorite couples so I hope not though. I think Sharna’s cult following is bolstering James’ position a lot and his dances have been overrated since week 2, much like Nyles. Tera seems very popular on SM so I think she is still safe. Her dance was my favorite last week. I’m not as sure about Calvin. If Jana is safe I think he might be in danger, but like someone said his supporters don’t seem to be vocal so it’s difficult to gauge. Laurie, I still believe is in a league of her own and factoring in Val’s significant following, probably unstoppable (IMO).
Unfortunately I believe ALL this heidi?. As much as she grates my nerves,I feel a little bad for Jana being in jeopardy 24/7..its just a darn embarrassment. But I thought the contemporary was ok,plus I heard Gleb’ s wife helped a little on it,I may be wrong tho. BUT they will set throw a shocker come this Monday ?
In my opinion, no one is safe this week except maybe Laurie. I would like to see Jana go home this week for two reasons: to thwart TPTB. And to see what Terra and Sasha could do with a freestyle.
If Jana is going, I think she’ll get put in jeopardy with Laurie. “The two perfect scoring couples” plus it would give Laurie a vote boost. But I think Terra is going. 13k is a lot of votes and I don’t see her making it up over Jana. Real shame if so!
I really like Sasha,that’s why I would hate to see them go,but as much as I sorta like laurie…Val just irks me, just for that I think James journey is what this damnbshow is about.
Well, I don’t believe that Sasha has a big fanbase yet either, so I didn’t consider that factor. I still don’t.
As for Maria, hyperbole is not your friend. Maria didn’t “keep getting 10’s” – she got one or more 10 on 4 out of 13 dances, all in the last 3 weeks she was on the show. Two of the dances that got 10s were on the night she was eliminated. Since they likely knew she was going, it hardly counts. Two scores were a perfect 30 – the vampire Paso Doble she did which was very much worthy of the score. The other was an Argentine Tango right before she was eliminated. Prior to week 7 she got mixtures of 7s, 8s and 9s. Maria was not a natural dancer, but Derek got some really good, memorable dances out of her. I’ll never forget what he did with Madonna’s Material Girl for their rumba, or the Vampire Paso Doble. The same cannot be said for Jana. Maria was also had the lowest scoring dance one week, but was never put in jeopardy, nor was she ever bottom two. The pimped person that season was William Levy and, to a lesser extent, Katherine.
Another thing that Maria had over Jana was that she was a hard worker who got injured a lot but who was neither a whiner nor a low key beyotch. That you think both Nyle and James have been over rated is very interesting, considering you like Jana. I would say you have it seriously backwards. It’s not just about the dancing – although James is a VERY good dancer – but it’s about personality and entertainment value, neither of which Jana actually has.
13k is NOT a lot of votes. Much, MUCH larger margins were beaten easily. I think the record is still 48k votes – Audrina eliminated when Kurt Warner got the votes.
And it’s not about Terra getting votes in this instance, it’s about Jana NOT getting votes.
#Robbie I know Georgia Tech and Georgia State University have been voting for Calvin because I live in Atlanta…They have been voting as a group and voted 1,580+ times? I don’t know the last of that 4 digit number and someone else voted 800+ times with a small group that I know of so that should be the 2000 he needed but that’s only per million so idk…
Am I the only one afraid James might still get a shock boot like Charlie, Nastia and Wanya did? His running position last Monday wasn’t the best, he messed up his dance, and he’s at the bottom of the pack.
PH please note I also said IMO, as in my opinion. I respect yours ?
As long as James and Calvin are in that finals like they deserve to be I’m fine…Peta,Kym,Sharna,Lindsay freestyles are my FAV!!! I would rather see freestyle’s from the 3 with personalities (James,Calvin,Laurie) even though Val’s Freestyle’s are always lackluster Laurie deserves to be there although I wish she wasn’t.I don’t think Terra’s freestyle would be boring and her dancing is good but it doesn’t feel “Right” but I suppose if there has to be 4 freestyles I’s rather see Terra’s…Jana has a fake personality thing going and I don’t care for her freestyle but I hope her fans enjoyed her season if it was her last dance.Kellie WAS AMAZING with Derek her season but I still Blame Val for her losing due to her weird freestyle.
Bia- yes a little but honestly it would surprise the heck out of me if he went home. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a virtually unknown contestant be this popular on social media. Granted, it’s hard to tell how the other two are doing who he has to beat, but if he goes home id be absolutely floored
I’d hardly call Wanya’s elimination as ‘shocking’, more just ‘mass manipulated’. Wanya was given terrible scores for one mishap, which is really what sent him home. It wasn’t surprising, just faced with a ton of backlash.
We still have a shot at getting a dream finale, Laurie, Terra, Calvin, and James. We know Lindsay and Sharna are definitely capable of creating memorable freestyles. Val is not, but it would be a disservice if Laurie wasn’t in the finale. Sasha’s been doing great with Terra all season long, and finale shouldn’t be an exception. Between Sasha and Gleb, Sasha’s the better choreographer this season.
At this point in the competition, a pro’s fanbase isn’t going to do much anymore. The margins between Marilu and Terra were tiny last week, and Marilu had the more popular pro by far. However, because the general audience voted for Terra more, Marilu couldn’t get past the small margin. That clearly shows that the more popular pro isn’t going to be enough to carry.
I continue to pray for the elimination of Jana. The only two I feel are safe are Laurie and James. Out of the other three, losing Calvin would hurt the most.
I would like to see Terra stay another week and Jana go on Monday. I think Jana is the better dancer, but I enjoy watching Terra and Sasha’s partnership more. I do think those two should be the next two to go though.
Well, people often do let opinion get in the way of actual facts, so I’ll give you that.
If James is your favorite, Bia, then you’re going to be afraid until he’s called safe. That’s normal. But I would be more shocked by that elimination than any in the history of this show – that should tell you something. It’s not a guarantee, but my record (as was pointed out to me on twitter today) has been quite good the last few seasons. 🙂
Alison, Terra didn’t necessarily get more votes than Marilu – that’s a bad assumption. She may have, but she may not have, we’ll never know. Because Marilu had a lower score than Terra, she had to make ground up. It is POSSIBLE that Marilu got more votes than Terra and still got eliminated.
Who called Wanya’s elimination shocking? I missed that one.
As for freestyles, we also know that Sharna and Lindsay have, in the past, had choreographic help. Val has too – Jenna. And we’ve seen what Jenna can and can’t do. I would suggest to Val to find better help – and NOT Maks. There is no shame in getting assistance – not everyone can be a Derek or a Mark. Don’t put Laurie’s fate in your ego’s hands, Val.
Yes..i like the partnership of Sasha and terra. It’s a shame I was a fan of Jana and wished the best for her,but when I found out she was a low key bitch,well………..i had to bounce…lol,
Sidenote: I just looked at the preliminary polls this season, and I changed my mind. From preseason, Terra and Sasha were really the underdogs of everything. During preseason, barely anyone were supporting them from the start. When asked about the final four, Terra and Sasha ranked dead bottom, only slightly above Rick and Emma. I had pegged Calvin and Lindsay as the underdogs, but Terra and Sasha are the true underdogs of season 23.
Please someone tell me how do they decide who will go, viewer votes from previous week plus judges marks from current week? I’m lost
@dance4life
The couple gets eliminated by viewer votes and judges marks from last week (Quater Finals). Finale is a 2 night event. On 1st night the 4th place couple gets eliminated based on viewer votes and judges marks from this week (Semi Finals).
Jana’s dances on youtube have higher views than the other celebrities. Her tango is almost at 1M views. She also seems to get along well with her partner and the other celebrities especially Terra and Laurie based on what I’ve seen on their instagrams. She’s doing quite well considering that her partner is new and doesn’t have a huge following.
I think Terra will be the one getting eliminated. I don’t think James would be A shocking elimination to me, if he goes I will be surprised but not shocked. I have been voting for Laurie since Week 1, I don’t believe she is A ringer or being pimped, she is A wonderful,graceful and talented dancer, and makes very few mistakes, This show is about Dancing and Laurie is the best so no she is not A ringer. I don’t understand the dislike for Jana, you are all hoping she gets eliminated I hope her and Laurie are the final 2 standing for the mirrorball, Jana very well deserved that perfect 80, she is tremendous. My birthday is on Tuesday, and A great present for me would be to send Calvin home, I cant stand the guy and he has a nasty attitude, he is better then Terra, but only her Laurie,James,and Jana are better then him. Laurie is the only one who hasn’t been in jeopardy, look back a few weeks ago, they told James he was in Jeopardy. So all in all I bet it will be Terra who gets the boot, I hope its not Jana, only one can wish Calvin gets the Axe. Laurie and Jana are getting my votes.Laurie has had 2 perfect 40’s and two perfect 30’s, were Jana had 3 perfect 40’s and was never over scored, where as James and Calvin only had 1 perfect score. Jana has more fans and votes then you think, I am one of them. Go Laurie win that mirrorball, if not you then Jana or James, just not Calvin.
Genie, Gleb isn’t “new”. He’s danced on DWTS in other seasons (as a Pro and on the troupe). Since then (and before), many have followed and know him from Strictly Come Dancing, DWTS Australia, and DWTS Russia, etc. Of all the pros, he’s probably the most well know Internationally. I also know of fans voting for him from Europe through VPNs. He has a bigger fan base than you realize imo.
I haven’t posted anything in a long time but I felt they had to respond to that last post. I am supporting James for the win but to say that Calvin has a “nasty” attitude has no basis in fact. He has been nothing but gracious and happy and non-complaining since the start of the season. So that comment clearly has to be based on something other than Calvin’s attitude, demeanor, or work ethic on the show. I apologize if this is an inappropriate comment but I couldn’t let that pass.
I disagree about Calvin’s attitude as well. I have never seen any indication that Calvin has a nasty attitude.
For anyone to say Calvin has a nasty attitude says more about their insecurity in their favorite celeb than any truth in that statement. Only reason I can see someone saying such a statement and believing it is because they’re worried Calvin, who has been one of the most enjoyable celebs this season, could beat their favorite in a spot for the finals.
Out of all the contestants on the show, Calvin one of few thus far that has given NOTHING (that we’ve seen) for the producers to use as “angst” footage. Reality? Because that’s not who he is or has shown to be.
I don’t agree with Alan’s opinion that Calvin has a nasty attitude. He is appearing to be low key and not overly emotional but is always smiling and gracious. Never complaining or whining but working hard. There’s no drama with these two so the producers can’t give them a negative package even if they tried.
Alan, are you trying to troll us? Jana’s been overscored on more than one occasion. Both of the dances she got ‘perfect’ scores on were overscored. You shouldn’t be judging the winner based on ‘perfect’ scores. You can choose to not support Calvin, but he has a great attitude. He’s never once complained, threw a fit, or slacked off. I don’t know where you got any of that.
P.S. Back to being on topic, thank you Heidi for another excellent numbers post. As someone who has been supporting both Calvin & Hinch this season I just hope they both make it through to the finals. This week I sent all my votes to Calvin as I feel confident that Hinch would would have plenty to over take Terra. I was more worried about Calvin being “forgettable” this past week and people now power voting for him as well. I will be gutted if we are somehow robbed of another Lindsay freestyle.
Calvin is a damn ray of sunshine. I smile through all of his dances. He is humble and like Lindsay says he is a good sport about everything. I’ve truly enjoyed watching their friendship grow.
I hope Jana is the one to go home. I haven’t been remotely impressed with her. My final three picks would be James, Calvin, and Laurie.
Youtube views mean little. There have been many examples in the past of youtube views being high and the person still getting eliminated. It counts repeat views, and it gives no indication if those people actually voted. If Jana stays, it will be a coincidence.
You’re clearly a troll, Alan, but I’m going to take some time this morning to share some important points with you.
Your opinion that Laurie isn’t a ringer doesn’t COUNT for anything. By definition, she IS a ringer. The yes or no of that is not opinion, only the degree to which she is a ringer is open to interpretation. She’s not being pimped AS MUCH lately as she was early on and one has to ask themselves why that is, eh? Either she’s winning by a lot and doesn’t need it, or she’s not winning and they’ve given up. Hmmmm….guess we’ll have to wait and see on that one.
If this show was about dancing, they would actually spend more time on it, and not the stupid bullshit that goes on, such as manipulating packages, the occassional obscene focus on shipping couples, and so on. It’s not about JUST dancing. Anyone who still believes that, and believes their opinion of who the best dancer is should win hasn’t been paying attention. If they wanted the best dancer to win, they wouldn’t allow people to vote.
“Jana is tremendous” is OPINION – one that is not shared by quite a few of us. Learn to live with it.
James would’t be a shocking elimination for you? Well, that (along with so many other things) just shows you’re clueless about this show.
Calvin is a nasty guy?? What planet are you from? And your talk about who got what scores…you do realize that the judges have agendas too, right?
Okay, I’m done with you. Go away now.
That would be Derek, still, Vogue, all things considered.
This is Gleb’s second season as a pro in the US. He has 120K followers on Instagram and even less on Twitter. I am hoping that he and Jana make it to the finals as they are an all around package with ups and downs. As with this year’s election, you never know how people will vote.
I have a question for anyone who wants to chime in , who do you guys think is getting the most votes??? And do you think social media followers are a big plus because it gets the message to vote to a larger amount of people??
Krystal, social media followers don’t have much impact. If they did, Hayes Grier from season 21 would have won.
YouTube views, you do know a vast amount of people viewing those videos are not from the US and can’t vote? Social media has been done to death, it means zero. Also Heidi I know those numbers can be beaten but less people watch DWTS now compared to years ago and as such less people vote. That means that those sort of margins are a lot harder to overcome than they were back in Kurt Warners day. Finally Jana’s doing well because she’s getting pimped to high heaven by the judges under strict instructions from the top dogs over the likes of Calvin. The fact that she’s always in jeopardy says it all, she isn’t getting as many votes as the others so they use jeopardy to try and scare people into voting for her. It might work again this week, personally I hope it doesn’t. As for Gleb, of the six male pros competing this season I guarantee Gleb has had the least amount of fans personally voting for him over the course of the season than the other pros. Of course that might not mean anything, but if Jana does go home, Gleb’s lack of a fanbase compared to other pros could be one of many factors.
In season 21, Bindi Irwin’s dances on YouTube had very high clicks – several of them had viewership in the millions. She and her pro partner also frequently posted on Instagram & Twitter asking viewers for their votes. She won.
The decrease in ratings isn’t so great that the margin that can be beat has gotten that much smaller, m8….and it has more to do with Jana not getting votes as it does Terra getting them.
Genie, that’s totally irrelevant. One person getting views and winning doesn’t automatically mean that every person who does will win or even last long. There have been many examples of people getting views who were gone before the halfway point.
Like I said, Jana may not go home this week…but her YouTube views are not indicative of anything.
lol Heidi. True too on Derek.
Anyway, Genie acts like this is Gleb’s first rodeo or something when it isn’t. And he has more fans than she thinks.
He probably does have more fans that Genie thinks, Vogue, but it’s all relative. And relative to who’s left on the show, he might be on the lower end. Hard to say. The only thing we have to go on is social media. On twitter, for example, he has HALF as many followers as Sharna, less than Lindsay, about the same as Sasha and far less than Val, who is well in the lead of the pros who are left. I personally think that you have to count social media in conjunction with how well someone uses is. Derek, for example, is the leading pro dancer, yet he truly sucks at Social Media, compared to Val who is trailing him badly yet is active on social media. That tells ME that Derek is VERY popular – because he doesn’t use social media that well, yet he’s far out in front of the other pros. Just imagine if he was more active! If that makes sense. Now, I don’t watch Gleb on Social Media enough to know if he uses it or not. And we can’t know what the 65 year old set thinks of him – they who don’t spend their lives on Social Media.
While twitter is NOT a good indication of what votes someone is getting, it is an indication of relative popularity – along with a lot of other metrics I’m sure the producers have. Watching this show for many many years (since before twitter existed), it’s very easy to prove that Twitter followers is NOT an indication of how you’re going to do on the show. It just isn’t. Jennifer Grey won the show with only 60k followers. Same for Kellie Pickler, who had a tiny fraction of the followers she does now and was up against Zendaya. You just never know…well, me and Court usually have pretty good instincts. 😉
Especially this late in the game, social media followers mean virtually nothing. Think about it this way, Bethany Mota and Hayes Grier were both social media stars. In the end, neither emerged victorious. Views on YouTube/Facebook are also virtually meaningless. It doesn’t matter how many times you watch a dance, it matters more if you powervoted, or not.
I trust your instincts, you guys have been doing this for a really long time, and are certainly going to be better at guessing than we are. I do hope you’re right about Jana going home. I would love to see a freestyle from Sasha, and Gleb really wasn’t all that impressive with choreography this season.
Don’t forget Facebook as well. I actually find that a better judge than Twitter of a pros fanbase as more people who follow you on Facebook are older people and probably more likely to vote if you ask them. I can’t be bothered going through all the pros individually but I imagine Derek is at the top.
Derek’s fanbase is skewing younger every day, thanks to his branching out beyond DWTS. Not sure that facebook would reflect that, as it seems to skew older than twitter and instagram…and Derek sucks at that too. 🙂 We can’t be great at everything.
DancingABC’s instagram account is catching major hell from a lot of people over the lack of Calvin/Lindsay posts. They’ve had several posts on all the other remaining couples, including videos from all the celebs BUT Calvin in tribute to their partner. The one sole pic they decide to use for Calvin & Lindsay is from their promo shot. Trying not to read to much into things but failing miserably at the same time as I hope this has nothing to do with tomorrow’s results and just DWTS finding new ways to give Calvin the shaft in other ways by lack of exposure.
Like I said a week ago, getting rid of Calvin is their long (getting shorter all the time) game. If Calvin were going home tomorrow, they would likely have shots of him on their instagram.
Dwts Instagram basically coped to the fact Calvin was not in LA for the week and put up a shot as soon as he got in for camera blocking
I would really, really, love to see Terra in the finale. Sasha would come up with an amazing freestyle. I’m great with Gleb coming in 5th since he just got back and isn’t going anywhere. It’s Jana that I don’t think deserves to be in the finale over Terra.
I would like to see Jana gone only due to wanting Terra in the finals. She’s just captured the spirit of the show for me! Of course, I want Calvin in it too. As for who wins, I really don’t care this time as long as Calvin and Terra are in it.
I’m really hoping Terra and Sasha make it through this week.I think they both deserve it. I’ve been over Jana for weeks. Getting old.
I find it amazing how anyone could dislike Calvin. He’s such a sweetheart. Always smiling, always charming, always a gentleman and I love his partnership with Lindsay.
Jana is not the best dancer, doesn’t seem sincere and quite frankly she isn’t very interesting. That said, I really, really want Gleb in the finals. So I’m splitting my power voting between Calvin and Jana.
I’m happy Sasha got a chance to shine this season. I hope TPTB don’t demote him back to the troop next season but the way this show is going, nothing TPTB does surprises me.