Dancing with the Stars Season 23, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers! The MBT Goes to…
I’m somewhat happy to say that I don’t really know what’s going to happen. 🙂 Not sure where to start on this one.
Well, I think my favorite freestyle was Calvin’s. But I think he’s going to get third place. Love the dude…and I really find any man who gets emotional seeing his (extremely gorgeous) son exceptionally attractive. But I think he should be happy with third place, considering the competition.
A word on Lindsay – this girl is phenomenal. She may still use a ghost – I have no idea and I don’t care. But the concept is likely hers, as it was last season – and a good concept it was! Loved the treadmill concept and how she made use of Calvin’s excellent lifting skilz. If she is using a ghost, there are a few other pros who need to take note and realize that your JOB is to give the very best to your celebrity partner. It’s not about you and your ego. Derek – the best choreographer this show has ever seen – has brought in outside choreographers and showed them on camera when it was a style or area that he just was not experienced in – like the Bhangra with Shawn. They showed him researching Lindy Hop on the internet way back in Season 7. He regularly works with non-DWTS choreographers on stuff not related to DWTS – and it only helps him and his creativity. You have to focus on what is best for your celeb. That is what Lindsay is doing. Great work, Lindsay. I can’t say it often enough. This girl is one to watch.
Another word, this time on Gleb. Not very impressed with his work this season. BUT, I will say that his very sincere emotion after his freestyle with Jana gave me a great deal of hope for his future on DWTS. He felt genuinely very upset with how that dance went. This dude is not phoning it in. Yeah, they had some issues, and I’m not a fan of Jana. But he cares very much and I hope he gets a partner that will challenge him next season and he gets another shot. There’s a lot to be said for a total investment – if you are so invested in how well you did that you are moved to GENUINE tears after a dance doesn’t work, there is hope for you. No, not talking about the package – so much of that is BS. I’m talking about after their dance when talking to Erin.
As for Sharna – beautiful foxtrot that she gave James. It gave me slight shades of Derek and Nicole’s Michael Buble foxtrot which is my favorite dance of all time. It wasn’t that… but that is still high praise indeed. I need to watch his freestyle again – I’m still not 100% on how I feel about it. It didn’t strike an overly emotional chord with me, but I respected it for what it was. Cool, contemporary, good music, strong message – well danced. It was a dance that will strike a strong chord with his fans. It will definitely appeal to a strong segment of the audience. Not sure why I’m not raving over it. I said in the comments of my Live Blog post that it didn’t seem over wrought, but hopeful and positive…and uplifting. He survived a horrific crash and I think Sharna did a good job of portraying what that was like through the movement and staging. Best freestyle ever? Nooooo…but a very respectable effort and I can see why some are raving over it.
When you put the three freestyles side by side, I would have to say that I rank them Calvin, James, Laurie – in that order. And I think that Calvin and James are quite a bit ahead of Laurie. Not that her freestyle was bad, on the contrary – I think it was perfect FOR HER. And probably Val’s best freestyle – maybe ever. But therein lies the difference – Calvin and James have life experience, whereas Laurie really doesn’t. She’s happy-happy without a lot of depth – but you wouldn’t expect that from a 16 year old. That’s how it is. That’s the challenge of having a young celebrity. And while that was Val’s best *for HIM*, he’s still not rising to the level of what Lindsay and Sharna did (and have done in the past). The difference between the three freestyles is summed up like this:
Calvin = WHOO HOO!!
Laurie = Happy dance, happy dance
James = Hmmmm….deep, I don’t know what to think, interesting….and compelling
Now, to me, my reaction to Calvin and James are those that get votes. They either make you extremely happy, or they make you think and analyze while you feel it. :::shrug::: I guess we’ll see. But right now, when thinking about how I feel combined with the scores I have to think it’s advantage James. But let’s look at the numbers:
One point between James and Laurie – which is nothing if people actually VOTE!
Calvin is on the bottom and, while these margins are not large, I would be surprised if he managed to claw his way into second place – I think he’s very worthy, but I think the judges tone, scores and overall behavior towards Calvin likely solidified him in third place. But here are the margins:
Oookay. Looking at these numbers, I’m going to say that it’s going to come down to Laurie and James. Those aren’t huge margins and, while I would LOVE to see Calvin supplant Laurie, I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
Laurie or James….Laurie or James. Man, It’s a tough call. As you can see from the table above, James only needs about 3,400 more votes per million votes cast than Laurie in order to win the season. I just can’t decide if he’s going to do it or not.
It’s certainly been done before. Kellie was a point behind Zendaya. Nyle was in third place after night one. Donald was a point behind Katherine and Donald won. So it’s certainly plausible. But can James pull it out?
I dunno. There are quite a few things that make me think James. One – he danced last and Laurie danced 3rd. Dance order on the final night is often revealing – it no longer helps or hurts someone to have the “pimp” spot, but it is often reflective of who’s going to win. I have NO idea if this is an intentional or subconscious thing on the part of the producers. But…
Nyle – danced 2nd
Bindi – danced last
Rumer – danced last
Alfonso – danced last
Meryl – danced 2nd on night 1, last on night 2
Amber – danced last
Kellie – danced 2nd to last (Zendaya was last)
Melissa – danced 2nd to last (Shawn was last)
Donald and Peta (S14) – danced last
JR – danced last
Hines – danced last
Now, this is not evidence but it is very, VERY compelling (shocked that I hadn’t looked this up before and shocked how consistent it is, actually). Nyle not dancing last could mean that they decided to shake things up last season and we can’t rely on this at all. I think we’ve mentioned this theory in passing before, and the producers do read this site (or Conrad did anyway). As for Kellie and Melissa? Well, the vast majority of people expected both Zendaya and Shawn to win those seasons – perhaps the dance order was decided based on who the *producers* thought were going to win as well. They were wrong and got surprised by the votes. That’s certainly how I’m leaning. If the dance order changes tonight, I point you to Meryl’s season. Hope it stays the same, as the odds for a James win go up.
Another reason I’m leaning toward a James win is Shawn Johnson. James is Melissa (only a better dancer with a better choreographer) while Laurie is Shawn (equal ability, not nearly as well served by her choreographer). Never know how an audience is going to react to a ringer of her magnitude – are they going to love how good she is, or think she has an unfair advantage up against a total non-dancer?? Depends on who the ringer is competing against. Problem here is – I think they love Laurie because she’s lovable…but so is James.
Final reason (that I can think of right now), is the freestyle. I think that a great freestyle won’t hand you the competition unless you were already poised for a victory – I liked Calvin’s best but I don’t think he’ll win just because of it. I DO think that a bad freestyle can cost you the competition. Last night there were no “bad” freestyles (besides Jana – but we’re not counting her because she’s eliminated). But my sense is that it’s close between Laurie and James. I think a freestyle like James’ could very well tip the competition over to him.
So, I think that Laurie had the fanbase advantage coming in, not to mention the kind of past training that often makes for a good/great dancer, and she was certainly pimped there for a while. But James has a lot of other advantages.
Almost too close to call, but I’m saying “Advantage James”.
Final note: I fully expect the dance tonight to do nothing other than narrow James’ margin to beat Laurie. Read my live blog to get my real time thoughts if they do something OTHER than given everyone the same score.
Awww Heidi, I loved what you said on Gleb and Lindsay. I couldn’t agree more on both of them. Love them so much! And Sharna too!!
And excellent Numbers post as always. I’m loving how your Numbers are favoring James. That’s who I pick to win too!!
I know it’s probably wrong to look at the dwts facebook, but it is definitely leaning James, and while it’s not reliable, the thing about FB is it skews the older audience. Moms are on FB, kids like Snapchat. So combined with the numbers post, I’m hopeful. I also think James’ FS is very well received out there.
I don’t think I could love Lindsay more if I tried. I keep rewatching their freestyle package and she is legitimately willing to try anything that she knows will make her partner look their best. Here’s to hoping that she gets a solid chance next season.
As happy (and shocked) as I am that Calvin made it through to the finale, all of my votes last night and this morning went to James. I’ve been Team Lindsatron since they were announced, but if anyone’s got a shot at beating Laurie it’s James. I hate when people say “Oh it’s Sharna’s turn to win!” but honestly I couldn’t think of anyone better for her to win with than James. They are an absolute joy to watch and here’s to hoping they can pull it off!
I’m very happy that we got the best final three we possibly could. That certainly didn’t happen last season, and even though TPTB tinkered a lot this season, this was the best final three, and I wouldn’t want anyone else as the last three standing aside from these three couples.
That being said, I am disappointed as to how badly they wanted to give Calvin no shot of winning. Had the dances all been scored fairly tonight, Calvin would probably be second on the leaderboard only to Laurie, and James a point behind because of the little mishap in his foxtrot. I remember during preseason that no one was really sure how well Calvin would do because of how atrociously the football players last season did. Von was quickly thrown to the sidelines, and AB’s attitude just didn’t rub off on anyone. However, Calvin was everything that I could have possibly asked for. He always danced with a smile on his face and a great attitude. Lindsay has said in one of her first interviews before the season started that she thought this could be ‘her season’. Had TPTB not intervened, it really could have been. Watching the freestyle Lindsay and Calvin had just made me smile, and really made me angry at TPTB for robbing us of a Lindsay freestyle last season.
As always, I threw all my votes to Calvin and Lindsay. I don’t care if they have no chance of winning. This finale, I wouldn’t vote for anyone else.
I think the producers gave James the final spot last night to finally give him his moment of the season. I mean, you can’t have Laurie go last every week! Haha.
Actually had the finalists ranked in this order after their freestyles: 1-Calvin; 2-Laurie; 3-James; and, 4-Jana. Great night for Calvin and Lindsay.
As for who wins, Laurie takes the title. She’s never been in jeopardy and 6 of her last 7 scores have been perfect. In contrast, James and Calvin have only 3 perfect scores in last 7 dances.
Sure, the show goes week by week, but overall numbers and math don’t lie unfortunately.
Also, Laurie’s numbers are better than Meryl Davis, whom I think is arguably the best female contestant to ever appear on the show (maybe a close tie with Nicole Scherzinger) as well. Meryl only had 4 perfect scores in final 7 dances going into the finale.
Should be a fun finale, but the race for second is on between James and Calvin. And if it wasn’t for Bruno’s phantom 10 on James’ first dance after a mistake the whole world and the other judges saw, I think the only talk would be if Calvin could upset Laurie.
Awesome commentary from you again as usual! 🙂
Thanks for this post Heidi. Interesting to see the history on the dance order of past winners.
One thing I’ve been surprised last night is that James was called safe last. I realize that with so few contestants left there’s only a few choices on who should go head to head with the eliminated couple. However, this made me curious as to how likely is it for someone to win the MBT when in jeopardy the night before.
Also, if the race is pretty tight between Laurie and James, why would the producers want to treat James differently by putting him in jeopardy when they have no particular interest in pushing him to the win?
I have no clue who will win tonight, which makes it exciting for tonight.
I really think James had a Kellie Pickler freestyle moment last night and that he’ll win.
James commenting that Sharna had given him the missing page was quite poignant. It’s interesting to remember that Derek commented on James when he saw him practicing before the season began, that he thought he was very good. Random coincidence that they foxtrotted last night to the same song as did Kellie and Derek. It will be a well-deserved win.
@Catherine It’s neither here nor there how many perfect scores any person had once we’re to this point in the competition. The only things that count now are last night’s scores, tonight’s scores, and the viewer vote. The scores last night were extremely close, so what decides it is going to be the vote, and the viewer vote has nothing to do with who has how many perfect scores. Actually, the viewer vote arguably has nothing to do with who danced better. It’s all about who is either more likable as a person and/or gave performances that got people more excited and interested. There is an outside chance that tonight’s dances could change who wins it, but I think that’s highly unlikely.
I also loved Derek and Nicole’s foxtrot and it was very similar to James last night. I hope he wins.
Did they actually SAY “James you’re in Jeopardy” or did they just call out who was going to be in the final three?? Might not seem like a big deal, but nuance is sometimes important. I don’t remember, for sure, but it seems like they were just saying “who’s moving on to Tuesday” and didn’t play the whole jeopardy game. But I admit that I don’t pay that much attention to what is said at the end any more.
I think it’ll finally be Sharna’s time to win tonight. Agree with Calvin coming in 3rd even though I personally would love it if he won and Laurie in second. If they really wanted Laurie to win, then I think they would have her freestyle last (not that order matters…but moreso maybe for voters who vote after the show is over so it’s fresh in their head as the latest performance seen)
If Val throws in a lift tonight and it’s not part of an Argentine tango fusion…then he may be trying to throw it to Sharna.
For me Val’s goal was about teaching Laurie and growing her into a woman, as he mentioned on All Access before, so I think he’s satisfied with that. I don’t see the hunger to win in him either.
Lindsay and Sharna are hungry for the win while doing a great job for their celebs as well. Sad it’ll be over tonight ?
@EmnEm – I see no reason for Val to “throw it to Sharna”. It’s completely out-of-character for him, and by the time we reach finale night, we’re at a point where the judges are so high on life that Laurie could probably walk center stage and bite the head off a bat instead of dancing, and still get a perfect score. Doubt a lift will accomplish much of anything.
Ahhh so excited for tonight! Glad to see you guys see the odds in James’s favor, I hope they take it. Thanks for a great season!
I think James & Sharna are going to win. It will also be exciting to see Sharna (and Lindsay in the near future) win for the first time.
Lindsay is just running on all pistons. No matter how much they try and seemingly sabotage her partners with low-balling them, she still winds up near the top. She brings fresh choreography, great teaching skills, authenticity and positivity.
I also am happy to see more of Gleb in the future. He has shown what he’s capable of on other shows and tried new things as well that I haven’t seen before. Even though TPTB threw a lot of breaks their way to get them into the finals, it’s showbiz and I’m selfishly fine with that because I’m a Gleb fan. He also had Jana who was a Debbie Downer.
@PH They simply announced that Laurie and Calvin were safe, they did not call James to be in the bottom two, instead, it was just a comment like usual “one of you had the lowest combined total” yadda yadda. For that reason, I believe TPTB are pushing for a James victory. It could easily be a voting ploy to get votes for him. Imagine how the average viewer would take his Freestyle, and then James being in jeopardy. But thats just how I saw it. Its still a close race in any case.
There’s no money in “pushing” for a James victory. And the way it was structured, it doesn’t sound like the actually said he was in jeopardy – I certainly didn’t take it that way.
They didn’t say he was in jeopardy, just sort of implied since the last two are usually in jeopardy.
I think the core audience craves the type of freestyle Sharna put on last night so it definitely helped, not to mention the blatant oversight on James’ first dance. The only question is, was it enough to upset Laurie?
I think they purposely built it up to a point where people are wondering because they need a ratings boost. If too obvious, it could be a ratings bust for them.
@Rose1, I agree about the freestyle. It just gave you goosebumps and it’s something that just touches your heart and I feel that those freestyles are often the ones that win it all.
I’m going to say something crazy based on a gut instinct. I wouldn’t be surprised if Laurie came in third and Calvin places second with James winning. Laurie is really good, but she started out of the gate a very good dancer. DWTS’s audience tends to cheer for the celebs who show growth throughout the season. I think that gives James the advantage. The audience also tends to vote for the underdog to make up the difference in the judges’ points and/or the popularity the leading celeb has in the competition. That gives Calvin an advantage, especially given how underscored he and Lindsay were for their first dance last night. Last, DWTS is supposed to be about the celeb’s talent, but the audience keeps track of the pros’ wins over the seasons. Advantage James and Sharna given how long she’s been on the show without a win. All of this is what the regular viewers take into consideration. Then there’s the audience that watches just for the finals.
As much as I appreciate Laurie’s Freestyle, I was a little puzzled with the playground theme. The Freestyle that I immediately thought was just so much fun was Calvin’s. James had the emotionally charged, technically challenging, and in-depth story with his Freestyle. I thought his and Sharna’s performance was intriguing, but then I rewatched it a couple of times to find myself falling in love with it. If the audience goes with the immediate wow reaction, then Calvin got their vote. I don’t know if those votes could make up for his point deficit though. I was one who voted for James and Sharna with their “poetry in motion” Freestyle. That plus I can’t forget how much I loved James’ Suicide Squade Viennese Waltz. It in my top five all time favorite dances for this show.
Long story short, logic tells me it will be Calvin 3rd, Laurie 2nd, James winner. My gut says Laurie 3rd, Calvin 2nd, James winner. We shall see.
“Blatant oversight” on James first dance? It must not have been too blatant because I have no idea what you’re talking about. He was marked down for his mis-step. What more do you want?
Judging from some reactions of the main demo I’ve heard today to Calvin’s Freestyle, it wouldn’t shock me to see a shock win tonight even though it’s not conventional wisdom and my gut says that James hoists the MBT despite a somewhat esoteric Freestyle.
I completely concur on Lindsay – she’s tops in giving her partners great routines and experiences and, above all, she’s refreshingly zero drama and producers games. Even though Gleb’s choreo was not on par with what I’ve seen from him elsewhere, I’d still take him over Val, Tony, Maks, or Keo. Sharna’s got mad skillz and Val tries too hard but not choreographically.
As a complete aside, didn’t Bindi inexplicably go 3rd in her FS order (followed by Nick) although last in the redemption dance round?
I don’t know if you saw George Pennacchio’s tweet about tonight’s order but James is dancing 1st. I have a bad feeling. Has a winner ever danced 1st on the 2nd night of the finale?
Not in the seasons I looked at, Sandy. Could be a bad sign. Could be that they read this blog. Who knows.
I was just looking at last, Wynn – as in last dance each night.
Just a quick note on the “in jeopardy” centric posts: I could be entirely wrong about this, but I’m 90-some percent sure that Tom and Erin have *never* formally named a bottom two this season. The couple that’s sent packing is of course one of the two, but the other is some other random couple chosen to be the other couple left standing. Without the words “you are in the bottom two,” there’s no indication that both couples had low voter turnout.
That sucks. They shouldn’t be punishing James just because a lot of people here aren’t crazy about Laurie.
@Sherry I think people on this site realize that in jeopardy /= in the bottom two (and thus we have never known all season who the bottom two was). I think what everyone was saying is that all season the last 2 or 3 couples on the stage were declared to be “in jeopardy,” whereas last night nobody was ever declared to be “in jeopardy,” they just named two couples going to the final and then named the one that was eliminated. Clearly, the whole “in jeopardy” thing is a ploy to make people think that certain couples narrowly missed elimination whether or not they did, but they did not employ that last night. This is nothing new, as I don’t think they ever have on night 1 of the finals (but I could be wrong).
You are correct, Sherry.
@Princess Heidi, only three winners have danced first during the finale: Kristi, Shawn, and Nicole.
OMG this is going to be the longest ten minutes I’ve had in a long time. I literally feel sick to my stomach. Come on James, you’ve done your part, now America please do something right, by me anyway. ???
I’ve been a lurker most of this season (and last one, too). But I check this site every day for updates. Mods, your work here is invaluable. I very much appreciate everything you do, your wit and humor and snark and intelligent commentaries. Love how you kick out trolls. I can only imagine the crazy you have to deal with running this blog. Please know that I am one of the many thankful fans who truly enjoy your work. I wish you, Courtney, Heidi, John, Lori, and Vogue, and everyone here a happy Thanksgiving in advance.
repeating #31 because it can’t be said enough. Thank you to all of the mods for the time they invest in this site, and the patience to deal with the trolls, the stans, and the downright delusional.
I hope all of the mods – have a great off-season, and honestly I’m kind of looking forward to a few months of no shows. Sad, but true. This one wore me out, from the drama filled Jana packages to Vals tears, I just lost interest.
And RIP to Florence Henderson. Yet another great one gone in 2016. So sad.