DWTS Season 24, Week One – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, here I am again. Can’t say I’m overly excited about the show this season – silly fangirls, judges acting stupid, the producers using Julianne as a Heather apologist…all very annoying.
But there were a few actual bright spots. I loved David and Rashad, I thought Nick was funny and I liked that he wasn’t afraid to call a ringer BS. Love Simone, but I’m hoping that Sasha doesn’t play it too safe in the coming weeks. I’ve seen a lot of criticism of their Tango, but I have to say…I think it was the music. That music was crap. Just ONCE this season I would love to see an actual TANGO. Think Alexa and Derek – that kicked ASS. Hell, just about any Tango he’s ever done. He generally goes more traditional in the tango steps and music (when he has a choice) and I think the white flowery dress and the light, not-very-tango-y music of Simone and Sasha just ruins it for me. You can see the difference if you watch many of Derek’s – dark and intense.
Thinking of Derek’s dances makes me miss what this show CAN be, when allowed. I think just ONCE this season, I would like to see something unexpected – granted, we got that with David and Lindsay’s great quickstep, but I mean unexpectedly amazing. Like a Pretty Woman Tango. Or a 50’s Paso. Futuristic Paso. I could go on. But when Derek and Mark are both gone, it doesn’t look good. The only consistently good choreographers on this show right now are women and they don’t have the strongest partners. At least not yet. The mediocre choreographers have the big ringers. It’s frustrating. It sets up this season to be a big disappointment.
So here is my plea – Lindsay, Sharna, Sasha and Emma: I am begging you to not play it safe. KILL IT. All I’m asking for is the next Futuristic Paso. Lindsay and Sharna definitely have it in them – I’ve seen it. I know they can do it. I’m not asking you to be Derek Hough – Dereks don’t come around every day. But I HAVE seen you choreograph some amazing dances with James, Noah, Calvin, Alek and others. Sasha and Emma? This is your chance to show everyone what you’re made of – you both have great partners. Step up. I don’t have to have Derek for this show to make me happy. I need great choreography…and a lack of producer manipulation would be great, but we’ll take one thing at a time. :::sigh:::
Honestly, if Normani or Heather win this season it will just be so damn boring and cliché and unexciting. How exciting is it for a big ole ringer to come in, a Chmerkovskiy to coast by on so-so choreo, and they still manage to win? And not even because they were so great, but because everyone else is either not doing well, are underscored or the producers have an agenda…or all three.
Anyway, those are my hopes for the season. And I talk all about that because the numbers? Ain’t nothin’ to see here. Honestly, I can’t imagine anyone other than one person going home. Remember back before the season started when I said that I think Erika might be the first to go unless Chris really bombs? Yeah, well…
I think it’s safe to say that Chris bombed. Lots of people can survive bad first dances. It’s the follow-up that will kill them and he really didn’t do well with Erin either.
For the sake of newbies to this show, every week I take the scores that each of the couples got and determine how many votes per million votes cast they need to be safe over the other couples. For those of you who don’t know how DWTS works, it’s an equal combination of viewer votes and judges score. For the judge’s scores, each couples score is divided by the total points handed out to get that couple’s percentage or rank. The viewer votes are handled the same way – the votes a particular couple gets is divided by the total votes cast for their percentage, or rank. The two percentages are added together and the couple with the lowest combined total goes home. Obviously, we don’t know who’s getting what votes, so that’s where the guess work comes into play.
So, using the above system, what does Chris need to be safe this week?
Chris needs nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast in order to “beat” Mr. T and be safe. Remember, if only one person is going home, each contestant only has to get a combined score better than one other person to be safe. If Chris isn’t getting 10k more votes per million votes cast than Mr. T, his next option is Charo – he would need roughly 13,450 more votes per million votes cast to stay and for her to go home.
Just for the sake of argument, let’s say that Chris miraculously gets the votes to stay. So who would go instead?
This is a bit scary – Bonner would be going up against Charo and Mr. T, two people easily called cultural icons to the main demographic that watches this show. If I had to pick I would give the edge to Mr. T. Yes, he has to cover a margin for Charo to go home, but he only needs about 3,320 more votes per million votes cast in order to be safe. I also think he would easily beat Bonner at this point. Lucky for Charo and Bonner, there is no way that Chris is getting the votes he needs to beat either of them. I would be shocked and I’m rarely shocked by who gets eliminated any more.
This brings it back to Chris versus Mr. T. I don’t see any way that Chris survives to week 3. Mr. T lives to dance another day. Charo better get a grip because her act will wear thin very quickly – and Erika better start killing it – Gleb, step up your game, dude. As soon as Erika dips within striking distance of Charo and Mr. T, you got problems.
Thanks for the numbers post Heidi, appreciate that you still do it even though you’ve probably got much better things to be doing the way the season looks like it may be going.
Think it’s between Chris and Charo personally. I didn’t see anything positive about Charo, she had an okay dance but the reaction to her mini meltdown post dance was seen more as annoying rather than entertaining from what I read from a quick DWTS Facebook scan. Either the way those are some decent sized numbers for Chris to overcome. If he can somehow beat one of the them, it’ll be Charo, anyone else I can’t see him beating based on those numbers. Last place on the leaderboard usually gets a sympathy bounce though so you never know.
I forgot to add that hope it’s Chris anyway. Nothing against him, I just think Witney deserves a little check to her ego. She’s never been a favourite of mine and has been coasting on easy street since being handed the mirrorball along with losing her ghost choreographer. Maybe the embarrassment of being the first elimination will give her the kick up the backside she needs.
It is interesting to look at who might be in the bottom four this first month and in what order they will leave. The top four is pretty clear and I find less interesting at this point. But, it’s the middle that usually takes out one of the better dancers. My guess is Erika. I’m not sure how big her fanbase is and Gleb has yet to carve out a sizable fanbase. I sense it will go the same way it did last season with him. The producers will encourage naughty and that can be a risk. It might also be Nancy, especially if Maks acts out. The shocker will be Heather leaving.
Right on Miss Heidi. I couldn’t agree more for how your listed Pros can’t play it safe. Same with Gleb Savchencko too. They need to bring it on in every single way.
I’m with you for who is most likely going home too. I can’t see Chris making it to week 3.
Princess H, I join you in your plea on choreography. I surely hope the pros you mentioned will be able to give us something outstanding this season. And I thank you for doing the numbers for us each season.
I don’t think Chris would be able to cover the difference between he and Mr. T. Add to that the not so good feedback on him. I think he’s the first one going home. I certainly hope it’s him. I still want to see Mr. T and Kym dance, and even Charo and Keo.
I totally agree on your thoughts re this season. This is the first season, that I can remember that not a single celeb stands out for me. I think some are better than others and I do love Rashad and David’s fun attitude but it is almost as if the show has run its course. I am in the typical demo so I can’t be the only one who is struggling to be enthusiastic. What you, at Pure, offer in your analysis and insight far surpasses anything I am getting from the actual show. That is a compliment to you but also means the show itself is looking tired imo.
What are the chances of Mani getting eliminated? I’m scared what if she’s a shocking elimination because she doesn’t fit the demo ?
@Jazz
A “shocking elimination” occurs when the contestant at or near the top of the scoreboard is eliminated. Normani is firmly in the middle score wise so even if she’s eliminated this week, it wouldn’t qualify as “shocking.”
Who the hell is Mani?
Don’t answer that, I was being sarcastic.
It would still be shocking because of Normani and we are expecting her to win! You can’t tell me people wouldn’t be shocked for her to leave and she’s not in the middle she’s like almost at the top. It would be the most shocking elimination in DWTS history.
I don’t necessarily agree, Colleen. First, most eliminations are not “shocking” to those of us at PureDWTS, regardless of where they are on the leaderboard. The word “shocking” is used tongue in cheek here, much of the time. Secondly, Normani would be something of a “shocking” elimination because of who she is, who she’s partnered with, and her so-called fanbase. Leaderboard placement plays a part in that, but it’s hardly the only thing.
@PrincessHeidi But didn’t you say that you didn’t know how many votes each couple got? So it’s 50/50 and you don’t know the other half of the results so really anyone could go. So it could be shocking because you don’t know who’s on top of the votes and who is doing badly. So it should a surprise.
:::rolls eyes::: Not even close, Jazz.
Remember, MOST people don’t even know who Normani is. Learn to deal with that.
@Jazz How do you figure that Normani is not in the middle, but rather almost at the top? She’s sixth out of 12 people. That is (together with seventh) the exact middle of the leaderboard. I’m glad that she has her fans to be supportive and optimistic about her chances in the competition, but it is an objective fact that scoring in sixth place out of 12 people is the middle of the pack.
Just personally speaking, I would find anyone besides Chris getting eliminated anywhere from somewhat shocking to majorly shocking and also EXTREMELY unlikely. Mr. T, Charo, or Bonner maybe less shocking than others but still shocking to me. Chris hit that perfect storm of being the worst performer score-wise(and by a significant margin), not having IMO a huge fanbase to begin with, and not making a good first impression with his awkward interview.
All of this to say, that yes, this week Normani would be a shocking elimination to me but to varying degrees anyone not named Chris would be a shocking elimination. I just don’t think there’s any way Chris is safe this week. And rereading the post, that’s pretty much exactly what PH said.
No, Jazz. Some of us have watched this show since the beginning and have a good idea who could go and who is unlikely to go.
You also need to learn what “50/50” means and realize that it certainly does not apply here.
Thanks for doing these Heidi! Although I agree with you that it’s difficult to see anyone but Chris going, I always love to see the numbers. I do think that Witney probably went the right way with ramping up the entertainment factor, but unfortunately the combo of his low scores and awkward interview with Erin will doom him IMO.
I actually really enjoyed the first week. The last few seasons I felt like I could pick the top 3-4 from week 1, and the predictability and agenda was obvious from day one. Now the agenda could make me take this back, but I feel like its more open than its been in a while (this could obviously change). Sure, there is the insane female advantage, but I think there are enough spoilers that this could be interesting. You’ve obvioualy got Rashad and then you have people like David and Nick that, even if they can’t win, could advance far enough to knock out some “ringers.” Honestly, the only storyline I am really dreading is the Sharna/Bonner one. I’ve been over the fauxmance thing for awhile, and the entertainment sites are going in hard on the two of them.
Appreciate the breakdown. Very interesting. Would it really be a shock if Chris, Charo or Mr. T went home this week? For me it is kind of like Geraldo and Mischa. Both needed to go fast.
I think it will be Chris but would love for it to be Charo. I don’t enjoy her cuchi cuchi. Never have.
I think the showmance angle of Bonner and Sharna will blow up like Janelskiy and not help like Maksyl. God, it pains me to even think about either of those fake romances for votes. So I think Bonner is going to be gone sooner than later (maybe 4th?).
I still only plan to watch Simone and Rashad so I hope they both nail their dances tonight. I would love for one of them to win.
I would hope that the audience is wise to the showmance BS by now, but sadly, I doubt they are. I also hope that Sharna doesn’t play that to the hilt, putting faux kisses in every dance the way Maks did. She doesn’t need to and I’ll be disappointed if she does.
Looking at Facebook some people seem annoyed by the showmance while others seem to like it. Mixed bag right now. We’ll see if anyone else is swayed soon.
I truly don’t think that Bonner and Sharna are a Showmance.
I’ll just say this with regards to Sharna & showmances: there’s only been one alleged one that I’ve been aware of, and you would have never guessed it from the way she & her partner acted towards each other on camera. They were incredibly discreet.
Given that’s how she seems to handle romantic relations on this show – I don’t thing she & Bonner are a thing. Bonner strikes me as the type that lowkey probably has a lot of chicks he keeps in rotation, but isn’t committed to any one of them, per se.
Definitely agree with your bottom five with, I presume, Chris as first to go:( Mr. T might outlast Charo and her annoyances despite how energetic and fun she is. And Gleb, indeed, needs to step it up with Erika, in choreography and performance value-I think I’ve already had enough of the sexpot in her and it’s only week 2.
I agree, as well, that Sasha’s gonna have to step it up with Simone in order to keep Simone relevant in the competition in comparison with Normani and Heather.
I think Rashad is, definitely, one of the male contenders to beat in this competition-Emma has real shot at finding herself in the finals this season, along with Sasha and Simone if I had to make any early predictions;)
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility to say that Bonner and Sharna find each other attractive on a very superficial they’re both obviously good looking kind of way.
I do think people have gone way OTT trying to pair Sharna with literally any guy she’s been around since she’s been single. Like, it’s somehow wrong that she is single even though the relationship that most recently ended was fairly long term.
I may be the minority with this opinion but I do not think Heather or Normandi necessarily have an advantage. I really agree with Julianne that ballroom and contemporary dancing is quite different. I remember when Nicole Scherzinger and Alfonso Ribeiro competed during their seasons they often said during interviews that their backgrounds in dance did not necessarily give then an advantage because ballroom requires the memorization of a lot of difficult steps and it is an entirely different type of dance.
I don’t think Sharna and Bonner are a thing either. However I think Sharna is perfectly happy to keep up the “showmance facade” if it keeps them in the competition. The way Bonner dances, that is probably their best shot at staying long term.
I think it’ll be Chris Kattan leaving the ballroom tonight!
@Olivia Courtney wrote a whole post dedicated to the subject of Heather and her advantage, and she discussed the very things you talk about. Additionally, the things you talked about are discussed further in the comments of that post. It may be a good idea to go read that post.