Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

So, before we get started on this week’s numbers, let’s have a little retrospective on Heather and what led to her demise on the show.

I keep seeing a lot of commentary on the various posts about how the show can “get rid of” whoever they want in the double elimination etc. etc. That’s not really true. They can’t change the actual votes – do you really think they would let Heather and Maks go if that were the case? Any explanation for that move would require a lot of tin foil.

What they CAN do – and do often – is manipulate the audience’s feelings about the contestants and thereby affect how people decide to vote. They are masters at that. They don’t decide to toss David off the show, or Nick. What they can do is underscore them, talk negatively about their dances, and so on. And people are SHEEP. We call them sheeple. 🙂  They believe, often, what the judges and producers put out there.

But it doesn’t always work. Enter Heather (and Audrina, Brandy and others before her). Quite a few things had to happen for Heather to leave last Monday. Courtney and I both had a gut feel she would be eliminated long before her time…but I think both of us were very surprised that it happened last week. I was thinking this week, especially in a double elimination. But nope – this past week, all of the following things happened, which caused Heather to be eliminated:

  • David got at least 16,448 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Bonner got at least 13, 159 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Rashad got at least 6,580 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Nick got at least 1 more vote per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Heather didn’t get cover the spread of anyone above her on the leader board

Now, I figured that David, Rashad and possibly Nick were getting the votes to get past her. But Bonner getting the votes was pretty surprising.  But remember – it’s not just about the guys getting the votes, but Heather NOT getting the votes. I know that’s a hard distinction for people to make.

So, anyway, she got eliminated. While it does make me think harder about how Bonner and the guys are doing in votes, I don’t think it actually changes anything. For example, Kurt Warner took out Audrina who was TEN points ahead of him, but he didn’t go on to win, he was out two weeks later. He took out Rick Fox before he left, but Rick and Kurt were tied when Rick left, so Kurt only needed one vote.  But of course, the hand wringing got out of control with people screaming that Kurt was going to win the whole thing, blah blah blah. But it wasn’t about Kurt getting massive numbers of votes, but no one voting for Audrina.   Interestingly, that season was also a Maks shocking elimination when Brandy got knocked about by Bristol Palin – another non-dancer – so it does happen more than once in a season.

Anyway, on to this week – let’s take a look at the numbers:

Normani at the top, of course, and Nick at the bottom. But he sure doesn’t need a lot to be safe, that’s for sure.

Now, if this week were a single elimination, I might be tempted to call Nick safe yet again, because the margins are so small. I don’t think he takes out David, but I do think he can take out Bonner. What about Nancy? Hard to say. We’re getting into tough times – everyone left has either a fanbase or a higher score. Except maybe Bonner.

I have to say, I will be surprised if David goes…well, not really “surprised” or “shocked” but you know what I mean. I don’t think Nick will pass David. I think Nick can beat Bonner…which leaves Nancy and the margin of more than 11k votes.  Nancy is in danger if Nick is really killing it in votes or she’s not doing as well as I think.

But here is where weeks of trashing Nick come into play. They’ve been running him down every single week except the one where they expected him to be eliminated. That has an impact. I don’t think most of the audience sees what some of us who have been watching this show for years see – and that is that he’s not nearly as bad as the judges are making him out to be. For that reason, I don’t think he’s going to make it this week. And I will slap the first Nancy fan that tries to claim they’ve been running her down as well – that’s just not true.

Anyway, let’s look at David’s numbers:

I doubt that Nick is catching David and think David is beating Bonner – which would make David safe. Is he beating Nancy?? Well, this is where it gets really hard to call. While they have been running David down too, I don’t think the Cubs fans should be underestimated, particularly since he went to the series with them. Also, when you have one fanbase (Harmonizers) who generally act like assholes all over the internet and leave nasty comments EVERYWHERE, it tends to stimulate the voting of other fans.  And they aren’t smart enough to figure that out. Not saying that he’s passing Normani, I’m just saying that his fans may be more incentivized to vote, which could pull him past someone like Bonner and Nancy.

That brings us to Bonner. Is it possible that he’s beating someone above him to gain safety? I think that both Nick and David are beating him, which doesn’t make either of them safe because of the double elimination, but it does mean that Bonner would have to beat two other people to be safe. Understand? You can’t be better than just one person to be safe, you have to be better than TWO. So if Nick and David are covering that tiny spread and passing Bonner, that means he has to pass the spread of TWO people above him on the leader board to be safe.

I don’t think he beats any of the people above him. Mainly because I think he’s kinda become a nonentity. He’s not making an impact. Not getting huge amounts of praise, not getting slagged.

So. What does this mean?  Well, I think David is beating Bonner and Nick is NOT beating David but is beating Bonner. Unfortunately for him, unless he is beating the spread to Nancy, Nick’s still eliminated.

Nancy is in the danger zone, but I think she’ll pull through – she has too much going for her. She’s in the right demo, she’s in the right profession, she’s sympathetic, and so on. My gut (which has, admittedly, been off by a week since the start of the season after being near perfect last season) says that no one below Nancy is passing her except MAYBE David. I also don’t think Nancy is beating anyone above her. Definitely danger zone.  Let’s look at it another way.  For Nancy to be eliminated in the double, TWO of the following things have to happen:

  • Nick has to get 11,160 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, AND/OR;
  • David has to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, AND/OR;
  • Bonner has to get 7,500 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, AND/OR;
  • Nancy fails to get 3,800 more votes per million votes cast than Simone, AND/OR;
  • Nancy fails to get 5,600 more votes per million votes cast than Rashad, AND/OR;
  • Nancy fails to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Normani.

While Nancy may or may not get the votes to cover the spread for the people above her on the leaderboard, I tend to doubt that two of Nick, David and Bonner cover the spread from below to beat her.  Looking at it this way, I’m not even sure that David beats her.

I’ve seen a lot of people complaining about Normani and/or wondering about another “shocking” elimination.  For Normani to be eliminated this week, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Nick would have to get 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • David would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • Bonner would have to get 16,800 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • Nancy would have to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • Simone would have to get 5,600 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • Rashad would have to get 3,800 more votes per million votes cast than Normani.
  • Normani does NOT get immunity.

Now, I suspect that she will indeed get immunity, but I also doubt that Nick, David or Bonner are getting those kind of votes. That said, I bet that Simone and Rashad are definitely getting the votes. But it only matters if she doesn’t get immunity.

What to watch for? Well, it’s a natural that the judges give Normani immunity whether she deserves it or not – she’s a good dancer and they’re not really penalizing her for not doing the assigned style. Should be easy. But if she DOESN’T get immunity, it might mean they feel the need to protect someone else. But who? I dunno – it’s also possible that Normani isn’t blowing it out in votes, in which case they decide to stop protecting her. :::shrug::: These things aren’t easy to see except in hindsight.

In any case, this is often when we start seeing who’s getting the votes and who isn’t, provided that they don’t do massive over and under scoring to ensure their favorites make it through.

In summary, I think that Normani, Rashad, and Simone are definitely safe. I think Nancy is likely safe because I don’t think two of the guys cover the spread, which is what would have to happen for her to be eliminated.  I think David is still killing it in the votes…which would mean that Bonner and Nick are eliminated.

IF Nick OR Bonner gets called safe, the Nancy fans better start praying that I’m wrong about David’s voters. But I don’t think I am. J