Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!
So, before we get started on this week’s numbers, let’s have a little retrospective on Heather and what led to her demise on the show.
I keep seeing a lot of commentary on the various posts about how the show can “get rid of” whoever they want in the double elimination etc. etc. That’s not really true. They can’t change the actual votes – do you really think they would let Heather and Maks go if that were the case? Any explanation for that move would require a lot of tin foil.
What they CAN do – and do often – is manipulate the audience’s feelings about the contestants and thereby affect how people decide to vote. They are masters at that. They don’t decide to toss David off the show, or Nick. What they can do is underscore them, talk negatively about their dances, and so on. And people are SHEEP. We call them sheeple. 🙂 They believe, often, what the judges and producers put out there.
But it doesn’t always work. Enter Heather (and Audrina, Brandy and others before her). Quite a few things had to happen for Heather to leave last Monday. Courtney and I both had a gut feel she would be eliminated long before her time…but I think both of us were very surprised that it happened last week. I was thinking this week, especially in a double elimination. But nope – this past week, all of the following things happened, which caused Heather to be eliminated:
- David got at least 16,448 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Bonner got at least 13, 159 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Rashad got at least 6,580 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Nick got at least 1 more vote per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Heather didn’t get cover the spread of anyone above her on the leader board
Now, I figured that David, Rashad and possibly Nick were getting the votes to get past her. But Bonner getting the votes was pretty surprising. But remember – it’s not just about the guys getting the votes, but Heather NOT getting the votes. I know that’s a hard distinction for people to make.
So, anyway, she got eliminated. While it does make me think harder about how Bonner and the guys are doing in votes, I don’t think it actually changes anything. For example, Kurt Warner took out Audrina who was TEN points ahead of him, but he didn’t go on to win, he was out two weeks later. He took out Rick Fox before he left, but Rick and Kurt were tied when Rick left, so Kurt only needed one vote. But of course, the hand wringing got out of control with people screaming that Kurt was going to win the whole thing, blah blah blah. But it wasn’t about Kurt getting massive numbers of votes, but no one voting for Audrina. Interestingly, that season was also a Maks shocking elimination when Brandy got knocked about by Bristol Palin – another non-dancer – so it does happen more than once in a season.
Anyway, on to this week – let’s take a look at the numbers:
Normani at the top, of course, and Nick at the bottom. But he sure doesn’t need a lot to be safe, that’s for sure.
Now, if this week were a single elimination, I might be tempted to call Nick safe yet again, because the margins are so small. I don’t think he takes out David, but I do think he can take out Bonner. What about Nancy? Hard to say. We’re getting into tough times – everyone left has either a fanbase or a higher score. Except maybe Bonner.
I have to say, I will be surprised if David goes…well, not really “surprised” or “shocked” but you know what I mean. I don’t think Nick will pass David. I think Nick can beat Bonner…which leaves Nancy and the margin of more than 11k votes. Nancy is in danger if Nick is really killing it in votes or she’s not doing as well as I think.
But here is where weeks of trashing Nick come into play. They’ve been running him down every single week except the one where they expected him to be eliminated. That has an impact. I don’t think most of the audience sees what some of us who have been watching this show for years see – and that is that he’s not nearly as bad as the judges are making him out to be. For that reason, I don’t think he’s going to make it this week. And I will slap the first Nancy fan that tries to claim they’ve been running her down as well – that’s just not true.
Anyway, let’s look at David’s numbers:
I doubt that Nick is catching David and think David is beating Bonner – which would make David safe. Is he beating Nancy?? Well, this is where it gets really hard to call. While they have been running David down too, I don’t think the Cubs fans should be underestimated, particularly since he went to the series with them. Also, when you have one fanbase (Harmonizers) who generally act like assholes all over the internet and leave nasty comments EVERYWHERE, it tends to stimulate the voting of other fans. And they aren’t smart enough to figure that out. Not saying that he’s passing Normani, I’m just saying that his fans may be more incentivized to vote, which could pull him past someone like Bonner and Nancy.
That brings us to Bonner. Is it possible that he’s beating someone above him to gain safety? I think that both Nick and David are beating him, which doesn’t make either of them safe because of the double elimination, but it does mean that Bonner would have to beat two other people to be safe. Understand? You can’t be better than just one person to be safe, you have to be better than TWO. So if Nick and David are covering that tiny spread and passing Bonner, that means he has to pass the spread of TWO people above him on the leader board to be safe.
I don’t think he beats any of the people above him. Mainly because I think he’s kinda become a nonentity. He’s not making an impact. Not getting huge amounts of praise, not getting slagged.
So. What does this mean? Well, I think David is beating Bonner and Nick is NOT beating David but is beating Bonner. Unfortunately for him, unless he is beating the spread to Nancy, Nick’s still eliminated.
Nancy is in the danger zone, but I think she’ll pull through – she has too much going for her. She’s in the right demo, she’s in the right profession, she’s sympathetic, and so on. My gut (which has, admittedly, been off by a week since the start of the season after being near perfect last season) says that no one below Nancy is passing her except MAYBE David. I also don’t think Nancy is beating anyone above her. Definitely danger zone. Let’s look at it another way. For Nancy to be eliminated in the double, TWO of the following things have to happen:
- Nick has to get 11,160 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, AND/OR;
- David has to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, AND/OR;
- Bonner has to get 7,500 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, AND/OR;
- Nancy fails to get 3,800 more votes per million votes cast than Simone, AND/OR;
- Nancy fails to get 5,600 more votes per million votes cast than Rashad, AND/OR;
- Nancy fails to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Normani.
While Nancy may or may not get the votes to cover the spread for the people above her on the leaderboard, I tend to doubt that two of Nick, David and Bonner cover the spread from below to beat her. Looking at it this way, I’m not even sure that David beats her.
I’ve seen a lot of people complaining about Normani and/or wondering about another “shocking” elimination. For Normani to be eliminated this week, ALL of the following would have to happen:
- Nick would have to get 20,500 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
- David would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
- Bonner would have to get 16,800 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
- Nancy would have to get 9,300 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
- Simone would have to get 5,600 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
- Rashad would have to get 3,800 more votes per million votes cast than Normani.
- Normani does NOT get immunity.
Now, I suspect that she will indeed get immunity, but I also doubt that Nick, David or Bonner are getting those kind of votes. That said, I bet that Simone and Rashad are definitely getting the votes. But it only matters if she doesn’t get immunity.
What to watch for? Well, it’s a natural that the judges give Normani immunity whether she deserves it or not – she’s a good dancer and they’re not really penalizing her for not doing the assigned style. Should be easy. But if she DOESN’T get immunity, it might mean they feel the need to protect someone else. But who? I dunno – it’s also possible that Normani isn’t blowing it out in votes, in which case they decide to stop protecting her. :::shrug::: These things aren’t easy to see except in hindsight.
In any case, this is often when we start seeing who’s getting the votes and who isn’t, provided that they don’t do massive over and under scoring to ensure their favorites make it through.
In summary, I think that Normani, Rashad, and Simone are definitely safe. I think Nancy is likely safe because I don’t think two of the guys cover the spread, which is what would have to happen for her to be eliminated. I think David is still killing it in the votes…which would mean that Bonner and Nick are eliminated.
IF Nick OR Bonner gets called safe, the Nancy fans better start praying that I’m wrong about David’s voters. But I don’t think I am. J
I think it’s Nick and either Bonner, Nancy, or Simone. Most worried for Nancy, but I kinda think Simone may have faded into the woodwork a bit this week, though it’s not like many others really stood out either.
I also think David is killing it in the votes and I actually think Bonner is beating Nancy and Nick. He appeals to the main demao and has Sharna as his partner. I also think he could’ve pulled ahead of Simone and/or Normani this week but probably not Rashad.
Let me just say it’s always a frustration for me with how DWTS does immunity. They give immunity for an elim that’s supposed to be based on last week’s dance based on this week’s dance. Would make much more sense if the immunity was for the next elim. But this is always an annoyance of mine.
I had Bonner and Nick as my last two in power rankings and I think the two of them are the ones to go. As your post shows, I think Nancy has enough of a gap score wise and David enough of a gap votes wise that it’s going to be (to use a favorite phrase of yours) a tough row to hoe for Bonner and Nick.
I think it is Nick and Bonner, but wouldn’t be surprised if it were Nick and Nancy. If it were a single, I’d say definitely Nick. I think Bonner is doing better than anticipated. Thanks to Sharna I’d have to say his dance was my second favorite Monday and, if not for Rashad, I might have thrown my votes his way. Will be interesting since we have several non-dancers this season who are fairly popular.
Again, people overestimate the power of the pro partner to bring in votes. This should be obvious since Maks is already gone. He’s arguably more popular than his baby bro, Artem, and other.
The power of the pro only insofar as the dance Sharna created for Bonner, nothing to do with her fan base or staying power. For the first time this season I thought Bonner really stood out in a good way. i really liked it.
I think it will be Nick and Bonner eliminated Monday. I think they are the least popular celebs left. The only thing that could throw a wrench in it is if Normani is not getting votes due to the shows demographic. However, I think she would already be eliminated if her partner wasn’t Val, the show really really works hard at selling him. I personally don’t think she’s that great a dancer, she’s clunky not graceful. If it were a dancing in the club show and not in the ballroom I’d have a different opinion. She’s preordained for the tour anyway. Probably launch a solo career via DWTS.
I agree, I think it will be Bonner and Nick going home this time. I also agree how it will be Normani to get immunity. I’m so over it.
I think Nick and Nancy will go home Monday. I would love for it to Bonner and David. But David has a really high fan base. The judges will have to really score him low enough if they dont wont him in the finals. I can see him getting Simone voted off week 9 like what happened with Meryl and Charlie season 18. I hope that doesn’t happen but I see Simone and Rashad in the bottom two week 9 with one of them getting eliminated that’s my prediction.
@Mia Rashad is going nowhere. Yes, that scenario is possible and David does have a huge fan base, but we are soon approaching the semi finals/finals. Say if Normani, Rashad and Simone all get 9s & 10s and he’s the only one with 7s and 8s still, it might be hard for him to surpass them even with his fan base. It’s starting to get down to the nitty gritty and if David does make it pass the double elimination which I think he will, he will probably end up finishing 5th or 4th.
At this point, I see Normani, Rashad and Simone as the final 3 and then whatever happens there is up to their dancing and freestyles, etc.
Heidi’s breakdowns are always a good (and this week somewhat comforting) read. Conventional signs and wisdom would say that Nick and Bonner are next to exit and I think at least one of the two will go. But something about this season feels a bit unconventional. Between an unusual amount of sizeable/niche fanbases, vote splitting chances, and new producers (with an emerging agenda), I feel even a probable finalist could go on a given week, especially with the double elim.
For instance, Rashad had a somewhat monotonous dance style and song this week that was respectably performed and scored. Say the general viewers at large figure he’s safe and instead throw their votes in the direction of one/some of the likable guys lower on the totem poll and Rashad doesn’t have the builtin fanbase of closely scored Normani or Simone. Likewise, Nancy (who does have a base) had an off week in most every regard which could either boost or deflect her votes. And of course they were out for David (who I’m not as worried about as I suspect he’s an army of both Cubs and general fans behind him). And from the way the elims were announced, it wouldn’t shock me if some of the dimmer bulbs even think team boyband are safe for this week too.
Did Heather’s “shocking” elim galvanize voters in general, maybe sympathetically rallying around the talent stacked female contestants? Did some fans, given the conduction of the elim, mistake the boyband members safe for next week too. For those wiser, did they vote like mad for said members that gave the crowd pleasing (probably demo pleasing) dance? Or were enough viewers overwhelmed by both dances and make an early night of it, leaving it to the fate of the voting junkies and judges/TPTB whim?
With Bonner’s individual dance the weakest of the week and not as good as his last week, but his night did end on a decidedly higher note even if he may have been overshadowed by his troupe mates. I don’t think he covers a spread like he did against Heather last week nor has it in him to maintain over David (and questionably even Nick).
Nick had a funner than Bonner dance however lacking in technicality and finished of the night in similar fashion. I’d put his fanbase on par with the departed Erika’s, with a wider general audience demo appeal. But I don’t see him climbing over David nor reaching the upper tier of dancers.
Yet, it wouldn’t surprise me if one of the two was one of the upper tier, with Nancy being the most vulnerable suspect (outside shot of David). The unannnounced double elim now is definitely to offload one/two vote rakers that threaten the agenda, even the likely two we mentioned.
All I care about is that Simone Normani and Rashad are the final 3. An all African American finale would be groundbreaking and great publicity as well as shut the haters saying that the show is racist. They are best dancers and anyone from these 3 could take it home it wouldn’t be so lopsided.
I see Bonner and Nick being the two to leave too. Putting aside David’s large fan base, I do think that David is the better dancer than Bonner and Nick. I think Bonner will go first, followed by Nick. I say this because of the strong bachelor fans, Nick will be the 2nd elimination of the night.
Great numbers post once again, Princess H! I had to read it twice just to make sure that I remember that it isn’t just about who are getting votes; it’s also about who are not.
I just hope that Rashad, Nancy, Simone and David are safe. They are my favorites this season and I find their dances the most entertaining. I like their partnership with their respective pros, too. I would love for them to be the top four. It is just very annoying how tptb cannot allow the chips to fall where they may. I’ll skip tuning in live next week but check the spoilers here. Thank you so much, mods, for all you do.
I tend to agree on Nick and Bonner I think Nancy has a big enough lead in scores to save her Although people forget the votes the pros bring in too and Bonner has Sharna. Normani will get immunity ? So tired of manipulation
Much enjoy reading the site, don’t think I’ve posted in a couple of seasons, but the “manipulation mayhem” factor this season is too interesting to sit out. There’s so much going on it’s hard to keep track of and I’ll try not to ramble but I can’t even start without saying how much I’ve loved the terms “manipulation mayhem” and “stimulus package.”
So Normani. Definitely there have been a few stimulus packages for The Mani, but I doubt TPTB care whether she wins. They care about Val making the final because they see him as their #1 male pro and they want him dancing up to the last night. But they’ve done so much for her they’re sending out vibes that the Harmonizers might be more talkey than votey.
Up to this week I’d been predicting Normani will finish fourth, based on Season 19 and the battle of the teenagers, Sadie and Bethany. That season the top 3 wasn’t big enough for two teen role models and I’ve been guessing it won’t be big enough for two twenty year olds with dynamic dance floor styles. There’s a competition within the competition between Normani and Simone and my bet is Simone is crushing it with the voters. Normani is like Bethany in that her fan base is a certain age group that has been unreliable about voting in the past. Yes Normany has Val and he has a fan base, but Bethany had Derek and still fell short of the top 3. As an Olympic champion Simone has more name recognition among the full range of age demos and Olympians have a history of doing well with the show’s voters. She’s also got a great personal story.
This week it looks like TPTB tacked on the double elimination because after the votes were counted there’s somebody still safe that they’d prefer didn’t make the final. If that person is in 6th place then adding in the second elimination covers the territory. But if that person is in fifth place then they have to give immunity to somebody who’s in either 6th or 7th place. Which would mean there’s a good dancer snagged up in 6th or 7th place, because wherever immunity is given it has to be credible. There are only four dancers left who could credibly top the leaderboard in the first round to win immunity, Simone, Rashad, Normani or Nancy.
I doubt that’s Normani, based on PH’s numbers and because they gave her an 8 point lead over Bonner, 9 points over David, and 10 points over Nick, so she’s probably safe for now without the immunity. If that’s wrong and she does get the immunity that would be a giant clue her voting support must be anemic and they’re going to have trouble getting Val into the final 4 no matter what they do.
I’d faint if either Simone or Rashad needed immunity so if there is a good dancer who needs it it could be Nancy. I agree with the guess that David has a strong fan vote, so to advance my conspiracy theory I’m going to guess that David’s combined score leapfrogged him into 5th, safe from even the double elimination. If he’s been solidly in 5th he could have strong enough support to make the semis. Nancy is the stronger dancer who would add more to the final weeks of the competition. The trouble with my tin foil hat is that aside from Len there’s not much evidence to suggest the other judges and TPTB are too invested in Nancy. But maybe they see it as an opportunity to eliminate David’s fans from having an impact on the semis and the final.
So that’s a Nancy gets immunity scenario. I don’t like it because I’ve been voting all Nancy all the way through, and up to this week had sized up her chances as no lower than 5th and hopefully top 3. I had been confident she would make the semis, so I hope she’s safe without immunity so I don’t have to think about whether she got it because she would have been eliminated without it. To make matters worse there is another possibility, that Nancy and Normani were both hit by the double-e and only one can be saved. Because little doubt it would go to Val.
TBH! I,find myself,waffling on who will go home. Logically, I feel it’s Nick and Bonner. But the cynic in me finds the timing of this double elimination a bit suspect. If it had been announced on Monday’s show, that would be one thing, but they conveniently wait until after voting has closed and they know who is actually at the bottom, which makes me wonder if they might feel they can get rid of someone who may have been killing it in votes, but may have had an off week due to a combination of low scores and poor editing of the pre-dance package (like David).
I will be very surprised if Normani doesn’t get the immunity, but if it’s for a dance that isn’t the “best” of the night (like Janel and Val), that may be a clue she is not doing as well as some think with the votes.
All,in all, next Monday looks like it’s going to be another clusterf#>%k of a show, so I doubt I will tune in, I’ll follow Court on Twitter and the live blog to get the scoop. That may help keep my blood pressure from skyrocketing ?!
The sudden decision of a double elimination makes me think that TPTB might have gotten a possibly favorable outcome after this week’s tally and thus decided for double elimination to fit in their agenda. Part of me thinks they might have been able to oust Nick that they are trying to do for so long. The other part thinks that it might be David as he’s the biggest threat to their chosen one this season. Though I still can’t think of David not getting the bulk of votes!
I voted pretty hard for Nancy this past week. I just have a bad feeling about her. It would be a shame to me if she were gone now. I want to see more from her.
@Jazz I don’t think having Simone, Rashad, and Normani in the finals would do anything to stop people who are currently saying that the show is racist. It’s pretty clear that the show is not actually racist. I think something like 3 of the last 7 winners have been people of color. If people are determined to believe that the show is racist, they will believe that no matter what happens.
The fact that the double elimination was announced after the votes are in. It just reeks of manipulation. I think one of the two going home is going to be someone who will surprise us and TPTB just couldn’t pass up the chance, thus bringing on the late called double elimination.
Double elimination. They are manipulating with the voters. Unfortunately Normani is safe.
If I could remember their dance, Rose1, I would agree with you…. 🙂
This season isn’t really different than any other, Wynn, although it might feel like it right now. All the questions you posed get posed every year. One of the reasons Heather left, as Courtney and I said early on, is that it’s rare that this show can support two big ringers like Heather and Normani. It’s also possible that the show can’t also support both Simone and Normani – we’ll see. But who has a sizable/niche fanbase? Normani does, but her type of fanbase doesn’t usually win without a lot of help from the producers. David does, but he’s not a fantastic dancer and therefore is unlikely to make it past 4th. I think all the rest might be on par, with the exception of Bonner who is kind of an unknown.
Cheryl L. I agree it could be anyone of them.
Excellent numbers post as always, Heidi! As a David voter, I’m probably going to be nervous about him until show night, but it is what it is. I really have no idea on how Bonner is doing with voters. My thought is Bonner and Nick are leaving, but I wouldn’t be completely stunned if Nancy or David left. I like everyone in the competition outside of Bonner (and Val) so this one will suck for me regardless of the outcome.
I think the top three (Rashad, Simone, Normani) all have styles that should work well for them, so I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them win immunity. The person I’m interested in is Nancy. Clearly the judges can’t manipulate the votes. But it would be interesting if Nancy (who has an outside shot of being in the bottom 2 vote wise) was given immunity.
Honestly, as annoying as immunity is, esp. on a double elimination night, I often don’t personally think it changes the outcome. Of the people I remember winning it (Kellie,Amber,Janel,Nick,James) Janel is the only one I thought might have possibly been saved by it. I’m just happy not to see contemporary or jazz being used .
How many more times do I have to tell people not to count on the Pro’s fanbase? Jaysus. If fanbase of the pros were that impactful, Maks might still be there. And he’s been eliminated early twice in a row now. Do you think he suddenly lost all his popularity? I doubt it. He’s certainly more popular than any of the female pros.
It doesn’t automatically translate that the person who gets immunity NEEDS immunity, you guys realize that right? That’s just one possibility. It’s always possible that someone or two someones are getting the lions share of the votes that the producers give THEM immunity because they (and the judges) like the show to appear to turn out “right”. Often, they get that by manipulating so much that their dreams come true. But other times manipulating can be a negative impact on the audience – Bindi springs to mind. They might very much have wanted Sharna to win, but Bindi killed it so much and was so well liked that they would do more harm than good by trying to manipulate it to Nick. You can’t really be sure what is correct until the season is over and the winner is crowned, and sometimes not even then. I’m not sure that anything is obvious just yet, although it might be clearer after Monday.
I don’t know why but my feeling is Bonner and Simone. People may not be voting for her because she and Laurie are too much alike in the minds of the orb and the voters. I guess we will see
@Indyvoter. I was a motivator back in 2014 and I can tell you that Bethany fans were not as invensted as the harmonizers are this season. Although I supported Bethany I didn’t really vote and watched her dancers here and there. Also I remember her fans were really split between voting for Janel and Bethany because many were also Pretty little liars fans. Compared to motavators, harmonizers are much bigger and much more devoted and are really into it. Thanks to harmonizers I discovered this interesting website and we’ve figured out how the show works. So although similar demographics the fans are much different. Just like football fans, steelers are much crazier than broncos. I think there is not gonna be a final 4 rather a final 3 so the lowest I think Normani will placd is 3rd place. I doubt the producers will eliminate her right before the finals. I wish they would reveal the voting though because it could affect how hard harmonizers would vote. I hope Rashad and Normani are the last two standing I don’t think Simone is connecting that much with the audience I’ve seen more support for Rashad David and Normani. But who knows honestly.
I just read in the tour note the mods put out that Val isn’t doing the summer tour this year. Maybe because of PETA and Maks getting married is a conflict. If that is the case, tptb might need a different draw for the tour. Maybe Artem and Nancy or Sasha and Simone and that may reflect how the elimination goes. Just a thought.
@Lea, I can see Emma and Sasha doing the tour, however if Emma does it, I’m not sure if Rashad can because of football. Simone might be able to fit it in her schedule, but who knows if she has any upcoming gigs.
I can’t watch the process it’s too cruel. I’ll just watch Nancy get underscored again and change the channel
I’m going with Bonner & Nick. It will be pretty shocking if not them. I think David and Nancy are too likeable and fit this show to a tee.
I really hope Bonner and Nick go home Monday. They really are the worst dancers left.
I know it isn’t about best/worst but I can still hope!
Someday, when you grow up, Jazz, you will realize that you don’t speak for entire fandoms.
When I grow up, I’m going to dance on the street with a bunch of Russian construction workers.
Just my gut reasoning here, think Bonner stays bc/ he has a young Paul Newman appearance & magnetism along w/ that mystique of the authentic but dying bread American cowboy that appeals to middle America & young fan-girls alike (the show hasn’t really capitalized on his cowboy background so Bonner is still a mystery whose story was distracted by a showmance…anyway, I think the audience is still intrigued to watch him & his jawline.)As an aside, think the Aron Copland Rodeo music is lovely & nice change from boy band or hip=hop music. also think Nancy will stay bc/ she may be attracting some of that same middle America/older audience Her humility & hard work is admirable. Going w/ the personality/tv-presense as the draw over the dancing this season bc/ none of the dances have been that memorable…really missing Mark’s creativity. All that said, going w// Nick & Rashad or David for elimination.
Thank you for making it so interesting, PH.
If Nick is eliminated, Val will be the only remaining pro who has “won.” (Sorry, *had* to put it in quotes.) I’m curious if a “Pro who hasn’t won yet should win” campaign might arise.
@Suzy – I would love a final 3 of non-MBT winners. How exciting! And let’s also add the engaged couple duking it out as well. Brilliant concept!! Now if we can only get rid of Val….
Jazz, you say Simone might not be connecting with audiences. In my opinion, I think she definitely is. Now if TPTB are giving her crap songs or running order then that’s not her fault. I know YOUTUBE is not a good indicator of many things, but I doubt scandal/tmz is the reason why she has 1 million views for many of her dances.
My voting procedures changed this week. I have always normally just cast my votes through phone lines. I’m finding Normani’s fans to be so obnoxious, especially with their YouTube reaction videos (On top of Val questioning Len’s critique also annoyed me) that the Harmonizers have caused me to also vote online and through Facebook as well.
I am keeping my fingers crossed that Len is his GRUMPIEST when it comes to Val and Normani-not that it would make much of a difference cause she’d most likely do well in the dance-off even if she didn’t get immunity-I just don’t want to hear all the praise go to them Monday night ????
I really don’t like hearing that Nancy could be in the danger zone ? But I was expecting it….fingers crossed she stays safe!
#Jazz: “an all African American finale would be groundbreaking and great publicity”? If you’re going to make a statement like that, then you’re feeding into the race-baiting that sometimes gets associated with this show. Why not just look at whoever at ends up in the finale as the ones who deserve to be there and not make it about race? Just my opinion?
EmnEm, I agree, I thought from the beginning that Simone is the one to beat, so-to-speak, and I still believe so. Although it has been many seasons since I liked a contestant as much as I like Rashad, I would be happy for her too, and I’m really disillusioned that they’re trying to make her fade into the woodwork, or at least that’s how I see it. Of all the celebs, I would be most shocked to see her eliminated, although I would be most upset to see Rashad go.
I always enjoy these posts because it gives me a different perspective on the show! My hope is that the final three will be Simone, Rashad, and Nancy, with David as a dark horse to make it in the finals.
Normani’s isn’t a bad dancer, I mean she has extensive training, but a lot of her moves also seem cheerleaderish like Melissa rycroft. The amount of high kicks Val puts in her choreography is nauseating And unnecessary. I also just think that the other 4 have more compelling stories and connect better with the audience. I don’t know anything about Normani besides that her parents supported her pop career. I also think we would get to know her better if Val didn’t always interrupt and talk about himself and allowed normani to talk.
@Princess Heidi I have been seeing a lot of Normani fans on Glee threads saying that they were Glee/Heather fans. Some are saying that Normani fans are happy that Heather is gone because she split the vote for Normani. Not sure how much that might affect Normani’s vote but it is possible that she might get a boost in the votes. Also I want to propose a drinking game…every time Normani does a high kick we take a shot.
Interesting posts. Thanks. I’m not sure the show wants another “surprise” elimination after Heather. So, based on that assumption, I’m thinking that Nick and Bonner will go. If it is Nancy (my favorite for the finals, but not the win) I wonder where her votes will go. This is what the aggressive Normani fans are not considering.
When will the judges go after Val for choreography? To me, he is not the Derek or Mark 2.0, who took chances once in awhile, but not every dance. I want to see a Rashad, Simone, David, Normani and Nancy go forward.
Gunny I agree about the interesting posts. I love the comments and the blog on this site and wait for the Numbers and Power Rankings every week.
I’m a Nancy voter and all along I’ve been figuring she’s a dark horse for the top 3, so if she’s eliminated I’ll vote for either Simone or Rashad and it will be a tough choice because they both have a lot going for them. May be leaning Rashad because of all the frontrunners he’s had the least experience in a season with several women who are dancing powerhouses. One of the things Emma has done that’s so great was realizing she had a star in Rashad and presenting him that way from the first dance on the first night. So far the best strategy of the season and she’s kept him at or near the top all season long, so there’s consistency too.
@Gunny I don’t think the issue with Val’s choreography is that he takes chances too often. Rather, I take issue with him doing non-standard choreography that falls more into the category of time-wasting than chance-taking. For example, look at Derek’s quickstep with Shawn in the all-star season. This seems to be everybody’s favorite example of breaking the rules. Sure, they broke hold a few times throughout, but when they did it wasn’t for an extremely long period of time, and they actually danced when they were out of hold. Now look at Val’s Disney week foxtrot with Ginger. For the first nearly half of the dance it’s just Ginger walking around. That’s not “taking a chance,” that’s just avoiding doing a full routine of real, technically difficult dancing.
Agreed and thanks, PH. When I read your & others reassuring words, and look again at the vast spread…even factoring in a possible two point (?) bonus to each Nick and Bonner, and not David, I can’t see either of the former overcoming the Cubs hero nor bridging the gap to the upper tier (particularly, as Gunny noted, the week after the fallout of such a “surprise” elimination). Not that something bizarre still can’t happen…my final 3 predicts have not changed since week 1 but come with less assurance than in other seasons as there’s extra variables and a bit of a season 15 feel to this one.
Normani fans, it has been shown here, don’t know jack about DWTS. Fact is, every time someone is eliminated the people voting for that person either stop voting altogether or they vote for someone else. Those are the two choices. I don’t see a huge natural cross over between Glee and 5th Harmony. There will be some in every group.
As for the drinking game…I try not to get drunk during the week. 🙂
#random
I just watched the whole Normani package and comments, and what is Val arguing with Len? Man, what a shame.
Val you are wasting a lot of time not dancing instead of doing the proper dancing style asked, since, I dunno, Ginger. She and Laurie and Normani are great. And you just waste time trying gimmincs and acting, I don’t know what, instead of give them a proper dance. C’mon man, please shut up and dance. just dance. why is this so hard for him?
Hello Princess Heidi,
I really enjoy your commentary and breakdowns and just all the work on this site. Courtney’s post made me much more aware of the sexism in the women’s team dance and I appreciate seeing that. I don’t think reality shows should ever be taken at face value, so your attention to manipulation is great.
On the Big Money Quiz Shows of the 1950s, results were determined in advance, and contestants’ movements were choreographed. Sponsors like Charles Revson (of RevLon cosmetics) would chat about who they wanted gone when. Sometimes the a/c in their booths (they stood in these things called isolation booths) would be turned off so they’d sweat! It was a big scandal when people admitted to this tampering — it went to the Supreme Court — but no one was punished because the judges didn’t know what to do with TV shows.
So I have a question: what’s to stop “the powers that be” from ignoring the votes and eliminating people in the order they want? Can’t they just lie and say it’s the votes when it’s them all along? Who would hold them accountable? Would they get arrested?
One year X Factor UK did publish all of the votes after a season ended. There were cases where the eventual winner ended up in the bottom but was saved in the final sing-off or because one of the judges had the power to save someone that week. This is normal.
I have never seen DWTS do this, so who holds them accountable? Any ideas?
Thanks,
Rooster
A very interesting article and I love that there are some statistics. On behalf of the normal Normani fans, Im sorry for how rude and crazy some of them can get,
Im a huge fan of Normani but I think, like Heather, we havent really had the chance to get to know her (I know her because I support 5H). Heather always seemed to be vanilla to me. obviously she dances amazing but she never stood out (till last week). Having said that, I still think she left too early.
Nancy seems to be the dark horse of the season. I didnt know who she was before the show but she is now my second favourite contestant this season (following Normani). I also agree with some comments that Val’s attitude might be hurting Normani’s chances but she has proven time and time again that she is a capable dancer.
I think Normani will get the immunity because shes been doing so well but the show makes Len criticise her for not sticking to the style 100% and hes stood in her way of achieving the perfect score 2 weeks in a row now. This week shes taking on a classical song so I think it will be the week where Len tells her ‘This is what ive been waiting for from you’ and maybe gives her that 10 shes been waiting for… After all, it IS a TV show. I dont think it was a coincidence that Heather got a perfect score just to get eliminated on the same night. The producers manipulate the judges scores to make good TV.
Simone started out the season very strong and they had her close to the end in the first few weeks but suddenly they are making her blend in a little and not be close to the end of the show which could (possibly) be an indication that shes getting less support than they anticipated.
As for the racism claims, the show is based on dancing, judging and votes. just because someone of a particular race doesnt make the finals doesnt mean that the show is racist. people should make the finals based on their skills and votes and not because of their color or sexual orientation or anything like that.
In my opinion, if we are judging on who SHOULD go based on dancing alone, Id say David and Bonner.. or possibly Nick. But since there are so many other factors I think it is anyone’s game. Ill be keeping an eye on this page for more updates. Im really hoping the final 4 are Normani, Nancy, Simone and Rashad with Normani walking away with the trophy.
I agree with #Princess Heidi that Heather was not ‘splitting’ the votes with Normani.
A lot of the glee fans will stop watching now that Heather is out. And most Normani fans will probably do the same if she gets eliminated. Obviously there will be some overlap between voters liking two contestants but I dont believe that Heather leaving will have a huge impact on Normani votes. With athletes its more likely but glee and 5H are totally unrelated.
Disagree completely. Both Glee and 5H were/are musical groups they are very closely related. I used to be a huge Gleek back in the day and now I’m harmonizer. They also have very similar young demographics. I’ve noticed that many harmonizers used to love Glee so to say that they have no similarities is redundant. I think that’s the reason Normani has received much bigger support from the youngins than Heather because she is relevant at the moment and nobody really cares for Glee anymore. Some of heathers few votes will probably spill over.
Thanks for the info
Thank you, Jazz, for being so completely predictable all the time.
Rooster, I believe the voting falls under Standards and Practices – I do believe there are rules they have to adhere to, because of the Quiz show crap from the 50’s. And I do believe they adhere to those rules. Just imagine if word got out that they were ignoring the actual votes – the show would be over. And, since both the professionals and the celebs get paid according to how long they stay on the show, I imagine they would be open to charges of fraud.
It’s well known that most reality TV shows are highly manipulated…but it’s also commonly accepted that they to take the votes as they come. They will do what they can to sway the audience, as we will likely see tonight, but that’s it. That’s bad enough, isn’t it?
Alex, I think you have it backwards – they’ve been under selling Simone from Day 1 so that she wouldn’t get support. And over selling Normani to pump her up. As for Len – she didn’t get 10s from Len because she didn’t deserve 10s from Len. Anyone watching this show for years could watch that dance and not recognize what kind of dance it was. She was overscored by the other judges. You are right though – it’s about time for Len to give her a (producer dictated) 10 whether she deserves it or not. And if that happens when she STILL isn’t doing the assigned style, then you should be asking yourself why they might want to do that.
Quit talking out yer ass, Jazz. You have no clue who’s voting for what outside your own circle of friends.
So many Heather fans on SM having hissy fits and proclaiming they are not watching the rest of the season. Some votes might spill over but that could be said about anyone. I’m more inclined to think that some of big bros’s fans might spill over to little bro once the wife is eliminated. I might add that Heather fans appear to be more rude than the harmonizers, trashing Nancy in particular and demanding their idol be brought back. The show really pulled a fast one on them with the perfect score, as they don’t get that it didn’t factor into the elimination week.
I heard from the producers and they said it will be Normani Rashad and Simone will at the finals and that Normani is getting the most votes out of everyone because of her fan base Simone is trailing behind but she’s the second most votes and then it’s David and his cubs and then Rashad and then Bonner and then Nancy and then Nick so Normani is winning pretty much on lock. Hopefully it is true.
I’m only approving Jazz’s comment so everyone can LAUGH and the sheer delusion of it.
Girl, who do you think you’re fooling? 😛
Hahahaha that last comment made my whole day. Thanks for the entertainment
Jazz, you’ve hit a new low.
I am a big hockey fan and have dedicated a good chunk of my day to reliving great s**tposts in the hockey reddit. There are some that have me laughing pretty steadily at work. There was one guy who thought the NHL was anti Canadian because they put a hockey team in southern US cities instead of the town of Wood Buffalo, Alberta…population 70,000.
I put Jazz’s comment right up there with those kinds of posts.
Well Jazz, if that is indeed the case, then th e producers have their hand in this in an even bigger way than other wise imagined, like, by giving Norman 10’s and giving everybody else 6’s or lower. I don’t think it could happen any other way.
I can’t wait for tonight I’m rooting for the #blackexellence team, rasha, simone and Normani. I think Normani will get immune tonight, I can’t wait for see her tango, that girl is sexy af. and i hope simone kill it too. This will be a good night, I feel it. after that heather elimination, I don’t think they will let go another good dancer.
Now why would the producers ever say anything that is untrue?
@ Rooster with post #53: This season of DWTS has made me think a lot of the film Quiz Show and the game show riggings you mentioned. Funny I’m not the only one making that link…
David/Camila/Jose, you’ve already been warned once about sock-puppeting. Pick ONE NAME to start posting under, or I’m just gonna put you on comment block altogether. Final warning.
Jazz, you seem pretty defensive for someone who “knows” the producers and where the votes are going. If you know normani is killing it in the votes, then you should have nothing to worry about. Surprising that you know Bonner has more votes than Nancy and nick considering he has now taken erika’s place as the non-entity in the competition. I liked Ty Murray a lot more and was hoping Bonner would be like that but Ty just had a funny personality and memorable. I don’t remember most of bonner’s dances.
Val’s choreography for Normani is just predictable now. Waste time with nonsense, some content, high kick here and there, roundhouse kick, turns, spins, waste more time til the end. She’s talented but his choreography is doing her no favors and making her predictable and fading into the background.
I’m really hoping for something a bit more impressive from Simone’s dance tonight, it’s not that she hasn’t been impressive but it’s just been lacking a wow factor, in my opinion. It’s hard to follow a gymnast winning and Laurie connected to the audience quicker and she was fantastic but Sasha has a winner here. Rashad is great and girls love him and Normani is also great and has a massive fan base, but if Sasha can push Simone she should be untouchable. Nobody will come close.
He holds the cards here, she is the most talented individual left, one of the greatest athletes in the world, she can do pretty much anything, she can do the impossible so I know if she’s pushed enough she can do exceptional choreography. When I saw the pairings for the start of the season I automatically thought she would win, 100%. That Sasha had a massive advantage, maybe with the exception of Heather and Maks. (You’d call Heather and to a lesser extent Normani a ringer but I think Simone was the one to beat)
Sasha has the partner to win it this season, she holds an advantage over everyone else just with how quickly she can pick things up. It’s takes her (according to her coach) no more than 3 days to learn a new skill, when it takes other athletes years. Dance and gymnastics are not the same, not even nearly, but she is superhuman and capable of extraordinary skills. Yet recently she has began to blend in. It’s nothing to do with timing or production, Sasha just needs to make her stand out. If she can just relax a bit more and get her emotions in to it, there is no reasons why she won’t win. She is extraordinary.
Right Jazz, like the producers are gonna tell some rando Harmonizer STAN who is and isn’t getting the votes. Please girl, just stop. You make yourself look more and more ridiculous with each comment you post.
Jazz, what you are saying is nonsense.. I appreciate that you’re a Normani supporter.. I am too and in my opinion is that she is one of the possible contenders to win and I want her to win. But saying that the producers told you she has the highest votes is rubbish and your post is one of the funniest Ive read on any DWTS article.
Normani has been doing a great job- the best in my opinion- but you are fooling yourself if you think shes got it in the bag and doesnt need to put in effort to improve because of an assumption you made. She needs to put in effort just like everyone else and she needs every vote she can get just like everyone else. And we should respect that she will not be everyone’s favourite.
Jazz, lets vote for our girl and try to get her to the finals and lets try to not give Normani and her fans a worse reputation than we already have.
@Alex #75….that ship has already sailed!