Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Let’s all cheer for being at the finale of what has been an extremely annoying season of DWTS. Almost enough to make one vow to not watch anymore. And if not for the blogging, I wouldn’t be watching the show any more. But someone has to point out all the BS and I guess that’s our job.
Note that I’m traveling on both Monday and Tuesday so I’m not entirely sure that I will have the time to do a final DBTN that I usually do between Monday night and Tuesday night. Hopefully I will be able to – we’ll see.
Now, on to this past week. What happened? I don’t remember. :::yawn::: The only thing I really remember is the judges acting all shocked when Simone was eliminated. Give me a BREAK! If you were really surprised by Simone being eliminated, you don’t deserve to be a judge on this show that’s been around for 24 seasons now. I can’t believe….refuse to believe…that the judges think they can nitpick someone to death for 9 weeks and that it doesn’t have an impact. They certainly have egos, and believe that they direct the audience – so why would they believe that their constant assault on Simone’s dancing had no direct influence on the voting? The girl is an OLYMPIC gymnast and probably has had the toughest judging and criticism throughout her young life that one can imagine – yet she was brought to tears by these erratic, often mean-spirited, judges.
The only question now is Rashad – they did much the same to him over the past 9 weeks, only with a few more glimmers of positivity. Although never a 10 from Len, as I recall. But will he go out in third place because of their constant negativity? Prior to the assholery of the judges, I was pretty certain he would win. That was about the time that the judges started kissing Normani’s ass and manipulating the show heavily in her (Val’s) favor. We’ve seen the negative behavior work in the elimination of Simone. Will the positive behavior work in Normani’s favor?? Well, as it stands right now, I think she better hope that there really are nutbars voting 25,000 times each.
She’s in second place and David is within spitting distance of her and Rashad both. David needs more than 20k to get past either of them…but that’s what he needed to get past Simone. Just sayin’.
Now, no one is getting eliminated on Monday night and there are three dances left to be added into these numbers before a winner is selected. If someone were going to be eliminated on Monday night, I would be thinking it could be Normani going home. But I suspect that they will overload her on points, be less generous with Rashad and put David in the toilet.
But really, there are several ways this could go – if they score Rashad and Normani such that they come out close to tied (only 1 or 2 points difference), that means they think both have a shot at winning. If they score David HIGH, look out for an upset. If they noticeably underscore Rashad relative to Normani, Normani is likely going to win. It all depends on how much info you believe the judges get before the show. I’m inclined to believe that Len, at least, knows what’s going down. I guess we’ll see.
Let’s play “let’s pretend” for a minute. Assume they give Normani two perfect scores on Monday and Rashad lower scores. David gets very low scores.
So, Rashad would be down two points in my scenario. David would be down a whopping 19 points from Normani – nearly impossible, IMO, to crawl out of third place. I expect them to go for that unless he’s seriously killing it in the votes. But with four dances in the mix when it’s time for people to vote, what does that mean for the votes needed?
Yeah, David would need a literal shit ton of votes to get out of third place – not impossible, but nearly so I would say. But more importantly, look at the difference between Rashad and Normani. That’s chump change. Now, many of you will say, “Yeah, that’s what we thought about last season and this season is no different. Val’s partner is getting pimped.” Yes, that’s true, BUT this is a different season and the context is now different. I contend that it’s very possible for Rashad to win in spite of the producers agenda for the following reasons:
- Val now has two MBTs to Emma’s zero and that matters to some people. Will they give him two in a row?? Derek is the ONLY pro to win 2 back to back this late in a DWTS career. All other back to back winners had it happen very early in their tenure on the show….and then they never won again.
- Laurie Hernandez was fresh off the Olympics and was the big name going up against a race car driver. Rashad and Normani are more even in this area. Before you yell “Simone!” keep in mind that Laurie was pimped, and the opposite was true for Simone. Not only that, but some of the audience may have gymnast fatigue.
- Neither Val nor Normani are going on the DWTS tour, seemingly removing the need for the producers to engineer their win.
All that said, here are the reasons why Normani might just win:
- People are sheeple…and the judges have been critical of Rashad while kissing Normani’s ass – as unwarranted as both activities have been people tend to believe even the most ridiculous shit after a while (see: Trump).
- It’s very possible that both Rashad and David as so well liked that they could be splitting the majority of the votes, leaving room for Normani to win.
- People who were voting for Rashad may start to think he has no chance to win and don’t vote in the finale. Possibly because they see the manipulation and believe the show is completely rigged instead of just manipulated. I had dinner and margaritas tonight with some friends and they are in this boat. They’re convinced that Normani is going to win even though they don’t like her or Val and prefer Rashad. There was no convincing them that if they just VOTED for Rashad that it’s possible for him to win.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why manipulation works and they don’t have to mess with the actual voting. Unfortunately, I don’t see Emma being the type to relentlessly remind us that she hasn’t won a MBT. Nor is Lindsay, IMO. Val, on the other hand, will come up with (and relentlessly hog the mic to share) a dozen reasons why Normani should win.
Don’t buy the manipulation. And if you don’t want Normani to win, Rashad is your guy. He deserves the win every bit as much and a vote for David is a vote for Normani.
My prediction is that Rashad and Normani will end up very close in scores on Monday, if not tied, while David will be lowballed. I don’t really have a prediction as to who will win, though.
I’m really want Rashad & Emma to win, really I do!!
Vote for Rashad & Emma!!
I think Normani and David have the best chance of winning and so a vote for Rashad is essentially a vote for David
There’s one thing that kind of keeps playing in my mind when it comes to fan voting and that is remember when David and Rashad had that dance off and Rashad beat David in fan voting, although it was a quick sample but i think it said something, because we know every breath David has in this competition is because of fan voting, many have been victims of his fan voting from Heather to Nancy to Simone, but in that short sample snippet, we know for a fact that more fans were voting for Rashad than David while You know who had immunity…that’s kind of why i liked who i was supporting,, Rashad thrown into that, it is the only time in the season where you actuaclly get to see what viewers are doing.
I have a question and this might sound dumb, but I can’t remember: do the scores of the fusion dances count towards the winner? I know at that point, everyone pretty much gets perfects/near perfects anyways so it won’t make too big of a difference margin wise, but do they count? I’m pretty sure they do, but I can’t seem to remember right now.
I’m all for #TeamShadSquad and have loved them since day 1. Of course, I also love David and Lindsay, but I have gone all in on Rashad and Emma. I think it certainly says something about the character of our two female pros in the finale that they wouldn’t dare purposefully point out that they’ve never won (if they said it in an interview and the producers let the statement make it into their package so be it) unlike some other pros might. Lindsay and Emma really seem to be stand-up, classy women and I applaud them both for putting up with what they have had to put up with this season. I’m excited to see what they do on Monday ad Tuesday. The rest of the show, I could give two craps about, especially with all the finale filler on Tuesday.
Here’s to watching the finale with you guys! I could not be happier that this is all coming to an end.
I really, really want Rashad & Emma to win!
If I were to guess, I’m thinking that Rashad and Normani are scored quite closely and then David gets lowballed unfortunately.. I’m really hoping that Rashad and Emma is going to take the MBT, I love their partnership a billion times more than Normani and Val, with the majority of the reason being Val.
Anyway, thank you mods so much for writing up these posts every week. The show is basically unbearable without this site!
They do count, Tori. And you’re right…because they are usually pretty evenly scored, they only serve to reduce the margins because they add points to the total. I don’t think that the judges want to change the outcome once the final votes have been cast. That’s the way it’s typically been in the past, anyway.
Looking back, Ginger was scored three points down on night two (the other two tied). Alek was scored 3 points down on night two (nick and Bindi tied). Noah was scored 4 points down while Rumer and tied. Janel, Sadie and Alfonso all tied. Candace was scored 3 points down from Amy and Meryl.
Sure seems like a pattern doesn’t it? I suspect that David will also be three points down while Rashad and Normani tie…unless the fix is really in.
I really don’t care how much everyone thinks Normani is going to win. I have been Team Shadsquad from day 1 and will be after the show. So I will be voting for Rashad and Emma.
#Team Shadsquad
Am fully behind Rashad & Emma. Am asking all kinds of people to vote for them at their appropriate times this Monday.
I believe they have a decent shot if Simone & Sasha’s fans support them. (maybe a few of Bonner’s & Nancy’s as well)
Their biggest obstacle, IMHO, is the Cubs vs SF Giants game @ Wrigley this Monday night. That could be a boat load of votes (Chicago + San Fran + Boston = 3 major markets reminding people to phone it in for David)
Also saw the ET coverage of Normani’s “ankle roll”. She iced it for 10 min & they are not changing any choreo as of Friday. They brought up her back issue as still active also, but improving. Was this press for sympathy? Or to downgrade expectations? (Val still chokes under pressure)
glenn, I don’t believe the dance off voters reflect the #s David has. Most of his folks are not actually watching the show. They are just phoning it in a asked. Note the ratings are still sliding.
@glenn according to the ratings, the majority of people who watch this show are over 50 so I’m sure the online vote skews younger. I would be willing to bet phone voting has a distorting effect on what you would see as far as overall results. Rashad barely won over David in an ONLINE poll. I think he’s beating Rashad overall with phone votes factored in. I hope Normani takes this as she’s the most talented and entertaining to me. I don’t think David deserves it more than either Rashad or Normani and I’d rather see it go to Normani than David. At least then the outcome would make sense.
I’ve been following this blog for years but never commented. This is the only place i always agree with 100% on how i feel about this show. Definitely the most real and honest. I originally was bachelor nation so i voted for Nick, mainly because i saw his effort and improvements each week. When he got eliminated all my votes have been going to Rashad. I melt watching him dance and i think he deserves to win. Emma really deserves it, no telling when she’ll get a decent dancer again.
Rashad is my guy. I want a winner who respects Ballroom and Latin, and does not resort to Contemporary week after week because she is a trained dance teacher and can do it easily. Even Heather did not do that. Everyone blames Val who should be blamed, but I say blame Normani as well for never even being curious about trying to dance Ballroom and Latin all season long. Viennese Waltz that late should not have been that shaky.
Txjen, welcome to comments and thanks for following us for years!
Heidi, chalk this down as one of your best Numbers EVER! LOVES!!! Man and you are so right how a vote for David is a vote for Normani Monday night. No way am I doing that. It’s Rashad and Emma all the way for me too.
@txjen – Welcome 🙂
I will cry tears of joy if Emma wins the MBT. Rashad and Emma all the way for me too!
I remember when Maks & Val would get their blood pressure up complaining that Derek was winning too much, that he always got ringers, blah, blah, blah. Now that Val gets a ringer EVERY SEASON, and Maks has had 2 PROFESSIONAL dancers (Meryl, Heather) as partners, both of them are quiet as church mice. Val is already as egotistic and obnoxious as can be. I would hate how he would be with a 3rd MBT. I am gonna be giving my fingers a real workout on Monday voting for Emma/Rashad. I want them to win so badly. I hope Val/Normani get 3rd, but that will probably fall to David. As long as Val/Normani do not win, I will be ok with that.
It looks like Rashad is getting some support from the Giants. Damon Harrison defensive tackle for the NY Giants tweeted to get his friend Rashad Jennings and Emma Slater the win on the DancingDWTS finale! He tweeted their voting number and abc.com info.
To which a fan responded their support.. Saying they have voted for them every week and stating – Once a Giant always a Giant. Come Giant fans – Vote!
This makes me happy 🙂
I’m extremely happy this season is coming to an end. I will pretty much have Tuesday’s show on mute until they announce 3rd place, and then back on mute until the end. I don’t care to watch all of the unnecessary guest performers. It drags the show out, and I think it would be much better at being an hour long.
I’m voting for, and everyone I know is voting for, Rashad. I adore David and Lindsey, but Rashad and Emma do deserve the win. Both of these men are true gentlemen in so many ways, they have enjoyed the experience and had a great working relationship with their partners. Emma and Lindsey remind me of Derek. They have class and they would never point out that they have never won and really want to win. That’s a pro. Not someone like Val that makes it all about him and grabs the mic whenever possible to make sure we all know it’s about him.
So, everyone, we need to vote as much as possible for Rashad and Emma. It would be nice if this very blatant season of manipulation does not end the way TPTB want it to. I still think as viewers who see what’s going and understand what the mods are pointing out that we may not notice, that we do have the opportunity to rewrite what was written from the start. I think of the joy we would see on Rashad and Emma’s faces on being genuinely happy to win compared to Val’s face that will have that smirk, the I am great attitude, and the hogging of the mic. I know which one I want to see.
One of these days some of you will remember that it’s not just people’s votes, but also the judges scores. David will not just have to “beat Rashad” in votes, but he will have to beat Rashad in votes by probably close to 40k votes for every million votes that are cast. But besides all that – Rashad beating David by 4 points in the online thing for the dance off says exactly nothing about how each man is doing in phone votes.
I’ve only been watching since Season 12, and if I’m to be honest, I only came to the full awareness of the manipulation in the break between S23 and this one. In a perfect world I saw Simone and Rashad in the Final Two but oh well. I feel like if they were to give Emma the MBT they’d do it “because Rashad deserved it” but really it might be a sympathy prize or smth because she’s engaged to Sasha and Sasha was eliminated oh-so-shockingly before the finals. Idk something to think about.
I’m not convinced that Normani and Val will win the mirror ball. For some reason TPTB wanted them in the finals – they got them there – now they can go out in 3rd place.
All my votes are going to Rashad and Emma – he’s been my favorite since night 1. I love Lindsay and would be happy for them as well.
Thanks for crunching the numbers all season long!
I suspect that Rashad and David are particularly vulnerable to home viewer vote splitting and scoring games. I also don’t like that they both have VW and similarly toned Freestyles while Normani has songs that will differentiate more. Then again, dancing in Ballroom hold is a weakness for her, so the Quickstep may be her caveat if she actually dances in required hold and is not given yet another free pass by the judges.
Really need to see how tomorrow’s dances and scoring goes before a final prediction. For now, Rashad was my preseason winner pick and I’m keeping the faith despite the prevailing agenda. If he and Normani score closely with David drastically lower, I say Rashad takes it. If Normani is high enough (at least 4 points) over both, she’ll hoist the trophy. If David is not completely in the boonies (and maybe even then), I think there is a very legit chance he takes the MBT.
Do I have this right: Viewer votes from last week determine the final 2 on Tuesday, yet all three still dance the entirety of both nights unaware with one pair unwittingly dancing a Redemption and Freestyle tomorrow with Fusion Tuesday for not? And the viewer votes cast tomorrow will only apply to those final 2, leaving some viewers unwittingly voting for the 3rd place finisher in vain?
Same here, Sandy. I will cry like a baby!
Can fans really vote over and over again on the same device? I want to be sure that votes won’t be discarded because of high number of votes coming from the same IP address. When Bristol Palin was on the show, Conrad Green (former exec producer) said something about discarding a huge number of votes if that’s what they see. I’m not sure posting links is allowed but if you do a google search on Conrad Green talking about power-voting when Bristol was on, you might find something. Does deleting cookies and cache still count? I heard something about that from other fans. I hope our mods can shed some light on this. Thanks!
You can vote on the same device with different accounts, Sandra.
Wynn, 95% sure that the votes and judges scores from last week and the votes and judges scores tomorrow night all go into determining the winner.
I want Rashad and Emma to win soooo badly!!! ???? I agree that a vote for David is a vote for Normani, at this point, so sorry David and Lindsay, as much as I’m a fan, all my final votes will be going to my favs!!
I, also, agree with the scenario that, with regard to the points, depending on how the judges score, it just may be quite close between Rashad and Normani-just how close? Guess that would depend on the judges decide to play the game at this finale lol
This season has left me such a sour taste in my mouth that I ALMOST want to stop watching-ALMOST-I’m thankful they cut it down to one season next year for I don’t know if I’ll bother with the kid version-we’ll see….(fingers crossed Val is gone from both seasons next year? ????)
But for now, I can’t wait for World of Dance!! Saw another commercial today!! ?
Tom said in an interview this week he sometimes knows who’s going home at the top of the show. That leads me to believe the judges know also.
While the ratings are public knowledge, who actually gets the vote count (online & phone) and tabulates the results? Has this info ever leaked? Do we have a ballpark (no pun intended) idea of the fluctuations in voting #s season to season? Would love to see the data for 2017. Just sayin’
Tom also mentioned he would no be hosting DWTS Jr. Does anyone know if Jr will replace he regular DWTS next spring?
Thanks!
Like everyone else here, I’m voting for Emma and Rashad tomorrow as I have been all season. I want to see those smiles and true joy of winning on their faces come Tuesday night.
In my mind, I know that Normani and Val are going to take the mirrorball, even though I don’t feel like she deserves it. However, I think that if David is able to get at least 9’s for his first dance, and a perfect score for his second (which is really wishful thinking) he’ll be able to pull it out. I’m almost positive that he’s getting more votes than her…it’s just a matter of whether or not the judges will be really hard on him tomorrow and essentially tell him that he doesn’t deserve to be there. If this happens, I will send every vote I have to Rashad and Emma, who have been my other favorites all season long.
Maybe Alfonso can host DWTS jr?
Thank you once again, PHeidi, for another informative DBNs. I agree with the points you stated on Simone and why she didn’t make finale 3. And, the points stated on what needs to happen for Normani to win or for Rashad to win.
I absolutely agree that a vote for David is a vote for Normani!!
Rashad will get every vote from me (like last week) in any way I can muster them up to help him win. I agree he has certainly earned them!!!
I also think once the finals are here there isn’t a lot of manipulation between top 2. All the freestyles are usually perfect and redo dance 3rd place usually 3pts down My guess is it will be close between Rashad and Normani and David 9 or 10 pts behind with last weeks scores added Being Rashad is now on top by 1pt he may have a slight lead Although look at what Len did to Paige in Season 22 nit picked the crap out of her He could do the same to Rashad as he has all season.I am not so sure Normani is getting the votes either I have seen a lot of hate on social media toward TPTB and their manipulation on her behalf Although her fans have been very vocal about it too We can only hope that people do the right thing and vote Rashad
KellyK, would LOVE that!
With Derek Hough’s departure, I no longer watch DWTS. Hough was the show’s class act–the finest dancer/choreographer to come along since the heyday of Astaire and Gene Kelly. And a good-humored warm-hearted gentleman both on and off the dance floor. He also made the show FUN to watch. The show’s producers’ attempts to replace him by promoting the odious ‘C’ brothers was disastrous. I have a feeling the forthcoming WORLD OF DANCE (with Mr. Hough as a judge) will garner huge ratings that will also spell the end of the now unwatchable DWTS. But after 10 years, Hough is still a Broadway and movie star waiting to happen. Hopefully, the unexpected success of “La La Land” will restore Hollywood musicals to their former glory and Mr. Hough will finally achieve the success he so richly deserves.
Rashad was already struggling in the dance off audience vote in the live voting graphics. Of course that was against David. I think the question is whether David’s voting base will continue voting for him in the finals. I think sometimes a voting base that is voting for “nicest guy who isn’t the best dancer”, might not be as loyal in the finals. It’s one thing to vote to keep around the nice guy who is working hard, is learning but isn’t a great dancer and voting for that same person to actually win. Rashad is basically the same guy but a much better dancer. My fear is the nitpicking the judges have done will keep Rashad from winning. The show is certainly sending the signal that Normani is the one who should win. People do what they are told and last week they gave her an edit which made her look more human than they have all season. Seriously ill mother and hurricane survivor all in one week, lol.
Karen: “Rashad was already struggling in the dance off audience vote in the live voting graphics”
Not to single you out Karen, as others subscribe to this misleading thought, but those dance off meters are not a reliable measure as they simply don’t provide adequate sampling of either voting time or the home viewer voting (some of whom don’t vote online and, even those that do, were likely too busy watching the actual dancing to be concurrently tied up with a fickle website unless they are a diehard fan of a particular contestant).
For instance, looking at those numbers alone, Simone would be in the finale. But all it did, at best, was give an indication of a strong online fanbase and a weak gage to how she might be performing in votes against Nancy, not against any of the other contestants. And her elimination proved that (along with the importance of judging/scoring – that feared recurring nitpicking of Rashad while Normani skates is likely a far better predictor).
And all that’s assuming the show isn’t fudging those DO results in a fit of manipulation. Beside, those numbers were for that point in time only and further mooted by the difference of some in voting mentality come the final that you noted.
Thanks for the response in #28, PH. Since the drop of the Tuesday elims in alternating 4 person finale, I lost track.
If you’ll indulge one other question: In figuring the % of total points awarded in a night for the next week’s elim, does the show include those points awarded to the couple eliminated on said night as your numbers calculations seem to? Or so they take the elimed couple’s points out of the equation?
My votes all go to Rashad/Emma but I expect that Val will get his #3.
Something tells me Rashad and Emma will be a shock third place and it will be between David and Normano with ValZilla taking the mirrorball.
Radhad may have the higher score, but I can’t see David’s power base of voters outnumbering Rashad’s base of voters.
Also, this may sound a little off, which I have no intention of it being so, but, I don’t know if TPTB would be ok with having two African Americans as the bottom two. Just my humble opinion. Not saying DWTS is racist, but I don’t see 5 African American pros on the dancefloor (Il there are many different factors that affect that, but still…there’s a long way to go).
MY VOTES: RASHAD & EMMA or BUST! ?
Karen, I know right! Tomorrow night, we shall find out if the general public will buy into it and that they paid special attention to Val in Erin’s interview last week.
Darlene, please don’t come for Meryl boo. She was NOT a professional dancer. She was an ice skater. Yes, she did have an advantage and the show pimped her so Maks could, but she was not professional.
She may not have been a professional *dancer* MommaD, but she is considered the (now) 2nd biggest ringer in the show’s history. She had many, many advantages not the least of which was the ability to do choreography and lifting. Not to mention that she had been choreographed by a DWTS professional before as well.
Twitter poll says Rashad will finish 3rf ?
Jamie, I won’t rely much on a Twitter poll. Twitter seems to be the core place Normani’s fans go to be obnoxious.
As much as I love David and Lindsay, I’m not too sure if I think that Rashad and Emma should be sacrificed to third place and it be between David and Normani. I’d love to have t between David and Rashad but TPTB seems to be sending messages otherwise. Also twitter polls and online things for the most part are complete BS with crazy obsessed fans so I’d advise against indulging in that or taking any of them too seriously lol.
Abby, you are right about twitter, but actually, I don’t think there is anywhere that her fans don’t litter with their obnoxious and rude posts. Honestly, I’ve never seen a more whiny, self-entitled group of people EVER! Kind of worries me if this is what our future will look like as eventually these people (with their poor grammar and overly dramatic comments) will someday be running the world! Dear God, let us all hope that they all disappear by next season, which is quite likely as they seem tethered to her and 5H as if with an umbilical cord and hopefully she goes and so do they!
Tonight’s a home game for the Cubs so I think this could get very interesting.
I definitely think Meryl was one of the top all-time ringers, definitely a dancer. Yes, the showmance helped a lot, but that doesn’t change the fact that she was a trained dancer.
If they would’ve allowed international voting last season then Hinch would’ve won, there’d be no gymnast fatigue against Simone in season 24, and Simone would have won season 24 unless there was super frikkin’ obvious rigging involved!
@Kelly #33 good idea
@Nukegrrrl I love Simone and greatly enjoyed her run on DWTS EXCEPT for the crushing, often confusing critiques and marks. But if this season, the current contestants, has been allowed to play out without manipulation, I’m still not certain that Simone and Sasha would have won. You’d still have the groundswell of grassroots support for David and Lindsay. Charming and talented Rashad and his fabulous partner. And maybe we’d have been dealing with Val’s stans and the Harmonizers anyway. Or perhaps not, if her votes really were too few for a while there.
I’m just disgusted at the transparent manipulations and the meanness from so many of the young, new fans on sm. I’d simply love to have a more honest contest again.
Val and Normani are truly the best dancers!!!!!!!!!!!