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Get Ready for the DWTS Tour!! New Tour Commercial!

This is a nice commercial for the tour. Makes me want to go. :-)

December 19, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Cheryl Burke has a New Job Away from DWTS!

Many congrats to Cheryl. Sounds like it could be interesting! According to People.com (thanks to DWTSGossip for the heads up):

Hold onto your sequins, Dancing with the Stars fans: two-time mirror ball trophy winner Cheryl Burke is quick-stepping over to a new network!

PEOPLE has learned exclusively that Burke, whose contract just expired on the ABC show, will star in a new project for NBC in 2015.

Burke, 30, will be one of several stars on a new variety show. The network isn’t ready to reveal the title now, but insiders promise the show will have a competitive element and that Burke will perform.

December 9, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 The FINALE – Night 2!! Who’s Gonna Win! Discuss – (Spoilers)

Once again, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules. Also, for tonight, I’ve turned on comment moderation which means your post won’t show up immediately. At the end of the season we always seem to have an influx of trouble makers. Even MORE important that you don’t hit refresh constantly.

  1. Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site. :-)
  2. THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. :-) We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.”  If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. :-D  Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1. ;-)

 

This road to the finals thing is BORING!!

Awww…Sadie has really brought out a nice side of Mark. I’ve really loved them this season.

Trying to actually watch the show a bit….Opening number was rather underwhelming. Well, a lot underwhelming.

That behind the scenes thing…can’t tell if that’s forshadowing an Alfonso loss or a win. Really hard to tell. They’ve gotten so predictable that I actually expect them to be unpredictable. Sadly, I don’t think they’re that smart.

Damn, Bethany actually improved on that amazing freestyle. Best one won, I think, although Sadie and Alfonso weren’t far off.

Is it funny or annoying that they completely edited out the total screw up by production and just made it look like Bethany messed up. Bastards.

Sorry, got distracted by shirtless Derek on All Access. Where are we? ;-)

Are all the finalists going to do bumpers? Ah, Tom says yes.

Again, getting totally distracted by the BTS stuff on AllAccess. Watching Derek and Bethany practice their Paso. I’ll pay more attention. Lea dancing now.

That female pro dance was pretty awesome – it would have more impact if Mandy didn’t do one every other week….

Lol Len in the car with Cheech and Chong!!

Loved the thankful video.

Beautiful dance by some of the pros – I think he said choreographed by Emma and tony?

Man, Bethany killed both of her dances tonight!

I spy Britney Cherry dancing with Meghan Trainor. Along with James again. :-(

Sadie going first? Doing quickstep/samba?? Kinda hosed, but mark gave her some great choreo. And she did great. Going first is the judges a chance to underscore her.

And she’s getting that you didn’t win comments.

Okay it’ll go one of two ways from here. Giving Sadie a perfect score either means she won, or they’re going to give everyone a 40 and let the audience make the call.

Hardest Road possible, Val? Are you on crack?

Where was the fox trot? It was supposed to be Paso foxtrot fusion. And the Chmerkovskiy brothers never managed to do an actual fusion they do one style after the other. Or they leave one style out.

More tens than any other couple because they make glaring mistakes and Julianne doesn’t care. Or Carrie ann doesn’t care. Easy to get lots of tens when your mistakes or overlooked.

Cha cha/AT combo? Hardest combo, best dancer the night. Alfonso definitely deserves to win.

Well, let’s see how this thing shakes out…

Third Place – Janel and Val

And someday people will listen to what we say around these parts. Just sayin’. :-) We said 3rd and 4th places were between Janel and Bethany and that Sadie and Alfonso would be the last two standing. If it sounds like I’m saying “I told you so”….it’s because I am. :-)

AND THE WINNER IS….

ALFONSO AND WITNEY!!!

Congratulations to Alfonso and Witney…and Sadie and Mark, for that matter.

Alfonso’s crying, Lindsay and Witney are screaming at each other (cute) and Derek is a bit late to lift Witney on his shoulders, but he doesn’t disappoint us yet again. And many kudos to Tony for working with Keo to lift Alfonso on his shoulders.

November 25, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 11 – The FINALE: Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, for those of you claiming scores don’t matter, this should be a lesson to you. Yes, this is me saying I told you so.  Including you, John. :-) There was a little more than 5k between Bethany and Janel and Janel had the second lowest combined score. It is VERY possible that Janel got fewer votes than Bethany and still advanced to the finale. This is why the overscoring crap actually works. Another lesson? That once again huge, young fanbases don’t necessarily vote. Although Bethany did FAR better than many younger celebs dancing on the show. Closer to Zendaya than Cody.

Now I have ten bucks that Janel is going on tour. Talk about yer motive for the pimpage. :-) Good thing I’m not buying tickets. I would like to see Mark sing though – dude, call me and let me know what you hook up. :-)

Anyway, fairly sure that they were called safe in actual order, particularly since Beth was eliminated and Janel was in the real bottom two – loved the shock on Val’s face. Yes, it is that rare that he makes it farther than Derek, despite having a ringer every season except one. Totally called the bottom two, unfortunately. Wrong person went home, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

I suspect that they were also ranked in order of how they will finish by the judges. Read more..

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 The FINALE – Night 1!! Let’s discuss tonight’s show! (Spoilers)

Once again, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules. Also, for tonight, I’ve turned on comment moderation which means your post won’t show up immediately. At the end of the season we always seem to have an influx of trouble makers. Even MORE important that you don’t hit refresh constantly.

  1. Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site. :-)
  2. THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. :-) We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.”  If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. :-D  Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1. ;-)

 

Power rankings will be coming up later tonight and the final “Dancing by the Numbers” should go up around noon eastern time tomorrow. Just FYI.

Artem, you ain’t all that. Love how the camera cut away before he could get his shirt all the way off. :-)

And of course, production completely blows the start to Bethany’s dance, throwing her off. Jaysus people this is the finale. WTF is wrong with you?? Read more..

November 24, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 10: Dancing by the Numbers!

Wow. The last week. The second to last numbers post until March. Yay!! I will hopefully be able to whip up a numbers post on Monday night after those scores have come in and will take into account whichever screwy way they decide to count the votes.

Anyway, their convenient ranking of the contestants the other night makes it harder to call than you might think. I’ve been of the opinion for quite some time that Janel is the low vote getter of the people left standing (hell, maybe she got less votes than Tommy, but who knows). But the scores are equally important and the question is: is she getting enough votes to prevent Sadie, Bethany and Alfonso covering the spread? That’s the big question.

Between the very young fanbase of Bethany (less likely to vote) and the broad appeal of Sadie and Alfonso, is Janel’s score enough?? Well, it will be an interesting Monday night. Maybe. What I mean by that is – when will they eliminate the fourth place person, Monday night or Tuesday? Last season, according to Wiki, they eliminated James on Monday night after all the dances. Bill Engvall was eliminated on Monday night. Aly was eliminated on TUESDAY. However, Aly’s season was the last one where there was a regular Tuesday night show.  So, it should be Monday night – but the producers of this show have a tendency to change things around to suit their purposes.

But for right now, we’re going on the assumption of a Monday night elimination, which makes these scores pretty important.

S19 Wk10 Table 1

Well, as you can see the percentages are pretty close together, which means not a lot of votes will be needed for someone to get beat.

See, this is why it’s tough. There hasn’t been a real bottom two all season. Janel and Sadie have been the last woman standing on a couple of occasions –sometimes that means something and sometimes it doesn’t.  It never means anything during the semi-final and finals nights, so that leaves Sadie and Janel each with one instance of being the last person called safe.  Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated two weeks later. Jonathan was last to be called safe and was eliminated two weeks later. Michael was last to be called safe and was eliminated four weeks later (thanks to goofy eliminations). Tommy was last to be called safe and was eliminated two weeks later.  Janel was last to be called safe four weeks ago and was handed bogus immunity two weeks later, and was wildly overscored the two weeks after that. Interesting.  Sadie was last to be called safe the last two weeks, but as I said, it doesn’t usually mean anything in the semi-final. That may be true for the quarter final as well, but I can’t remember and I’m too lazy to go look it up.

So, does this mean that either Sadie or Janel are going to be eliminated Monday night? Well, no, not really. We don’t really know if jeopardy means anything in a given season until that season is completely done. But, we’re pretty close right now.  Based on this knowledge, and the fact that he’s awesome, I’m going to bet that Alfonso is safe on Monday night.

That leaves us with the three ladies. Now, I think it’s fairly clear that Bethany has the largest actual following from BEFORE DWTS. And I kind of feel like Sadie’s gotten the lion’s share of the average viewer. Which kinda leaves Janel out in the cold.

Sure, I would like to see Janel eliminated, but that’s just to hack off Val. Really, if you’ve made it to the finale, there’s winning and losing. Unless you’re holding the trophy at the end, you lost – does it matter what place you got? Not really. All that just to say that I don’t really care if Janel gets fourth or third. And to also say that if Bethany isn’t holding the MBT at the end (and she won’t be), who cares ifshe gets fourth or third or second??

All that to also say that I’m not really sure who it’s going to be on Monday night. My instinct is that Alfonso and Sadie will be the last two standing. Let’s look at the voting requirements:

S19 Wk10 Table 2

Now, it could come down to Sadie and Janel or Bethany and Janel. But look at those vote requirements. I think that Sadie beats all three of them with the possible exception of Alfonso. Then Alfonso beats both Bethany and Janel. Then Bethany beats Janel. Now, that’s the very short version, but if you followed it, that means Janel is eliminated.

BUT, it’s entirely possible that Sadie only beats Janel in with the above scores. Doesn’t matter, right, because it’s likely that Alfonso beats Bethany and Janel and Bethany beats Janel, which means Janel goes home. But what if Sadie isn’t beating Janel, since that more than 10k could be a stretch??

I’m confusing myself now. Simpler version – how is Janel eliminated. If ALL of the following happen:

  • Sadie gets 11k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Alfonso gets 8,300 more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Bethany gets 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Janel.

See, those are not huge numbers, but the number between Sadie and Janel does worry me a tiny bit. How is Sadie eliminated?? If ALL of the following happen:

  • Sadie fails to get the 11k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
  • Sadie fails to get 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
  • Sadie fails to get 2,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso.

Finally, how is Bethany eliminated?? If ALL of the following happen:

  • Sadie gets 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
  • Alfonso gets 2,800 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
  • Bethany fails to get 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Janel.

Now do you see why it’s so hard? None of those numbers are huge. In looking at all three combinations, it strikes me that, initially, it looks like eliminating Janel is the hardest thing to do. But then look at Beth and Sadie – it seems like Janel has an easier road, but when you look at Sadie’s set, it seems to me that she could beat Alfonso and Bethany with those numbers, but it’s also a bit hard. Then you look at Bethany and it doesn’t seem like it would be hard for her to beat Janel even if Sadie and Alfonso are beating her.

That is why I keep coming back to Janel. Sadie might not beat Janel, but she beats Bethany (theoretically) so she’s safe. Sadie might beat Bethany, but I think Bethany beats Janel so SHE’S safe. And that leaves Janel out in the cold.

But remember, I only have to be wrong by a TINY bit for someone else (either Bethany or Sadie) to go home.

At the end of the night, I think Janel will be eliminated. If not Janel ,then Bethany. Third choice is Sadie.

ETA: In re-reading what I wrote last night when I was exhausted from traveling, I felt I needed to make a couple things clear and add a note. First – while I think it will come down to Janel and one of the other girls, they may not SHOW that. IF Janel is safe on Monday night, expect to see her called safe first and see Bethany and Sadie standing next to each other under the red light of doom. Either Bethany or Sadie COULD be ahead of Janel in the finish, but if they are really interested in pimping Janel to the trophy, they will call her safe first. It’s a subtle form of manipulation.

As for the note? Well, I wasn’t really clear in the point that while I think Bethany had the largest fanbase coming into the show, that fanbase is typically one that is less inclined to vote and could easily be offset by the general public,  who I think are voting for Alfonso and Sadie. That is why I think that Bethany won’t do better than 3rd place. I’d be happy to be wrong. :-)

November 22, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 19, THE FINALE – Who’s Dancing What….and When? (Song Spoilers)

Some crazy stuff going on this week. Janel and Sadie have Samba while Alfonso and Bethany have Jive. They added 30 seconds to EACH of the jives so Beth and Alfonso have to do additional choreo. Sound fair?? HELL no. Supposedly it was because they were so short the first time.

If you scroll to the bottom of the post, you’ll see a photo from someone at rehearsals saying that Alfonso has a slow motion tap sequence. Wonder where he got that idea from. Derek should be flattered with all the borrowing going on. ;-) Also note that Alfonso is the first person to reuse a freestyle song – Katherine first used it in season 14.

A super mario brothers freestyle?? Gotta be Mark and Sadie. :-) That said, we’re not sure if Revolution is Beth’s or Sadie’s song. Only somewhat sure. The whole Super Mario thing has got to be Mark, based on what Derek said.

ETA: Sources claim this is the dance order. Keep in mind there is still time for them to change it – either to spite us, or if something happens during dress.

Bethany and Derek – Dancing 1st
Jive (Song: “Shake It Off” by Taylor Swift )
Freestyle (Song: “Revolution” by Diplo )
Vote: 1-800-868-3403

Sadie and Mark – Dancing 2nd
Samba (Song: “Hunter” by Pharrell Williams )
Freestyle (Song: Theme from Super Mario Brothers )
Vote: 1-800-868-3411

Janel and  Val – Dancing 3rd
Samba (Song: “La Vida Es Un Carnaval” by Celia Cruz )
Freestyle (Song: “I’m Gonna Be (500 Miles)” by Sleeping At Last )
Vote: 1-800-868-3405

Alfonso and Witney – Dancing 4th
Jive (Song: “3-6-9″ by Cupid feat. B.o.B )
Freestyle (Song: “Sing, Sing, Sing (With a Swing)” by Benny Goodman )
Vote: 1-800-868-3401

November 21, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 Week 10!! Let’s discuss tonight’s show! (Spoilers)

Once again, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules.

  1. Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site. :-)
  2. THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. :-) We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.”  If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. :-D  Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1. ;-)

 

:::sigh::: Monday night football means I’m watching a live stream. Thanks, Titans.

Cutest opening goes to Sadie and Mark. :-)

Boy, Sadie had me worried as she was all up in her own head, but man, she pulled it OUT. Great quickstep!!

For both Sadie and Bethany, CAI manages to sound disappointed when they do well. Ugh. And the underscoring continues. Seriously?? Why?

Damn, Tommy Chong, I don’t even know what that was supposed to be, but I agree with the roar of the crowd! Think he’s going home, though, just listening to what the judges are saying.

Two weeks in a row in the crappy spot for Beth and Derek. Kinda worried about this treatment, I must say. They’re still in “Pimp Janel at all costs” mode.

Derek and Beth’s Samba was super cute!! Lots of content! The song is awful though for the Samba – and they’re going to get totally hosed for it. CAI just hates the two young girls. Len of course didn’t like the fluffing about.

I can live with 9’s but I think they’re grading the song and the feel more than the actual dancing. Bad song for a Samba.

Okay, Janel got a bit out of sync and stumbled at one point, but I doubt it will be noted. But she did get a more appropriate song. CAI is definitely on the Janel train. Me, not so much. LOL to Len and his comment about Maks. Truer words were never spoken.

Honestly don’t get the raves – I thought it was a bit dull. But then I’m clearly not a Janel fan.

A perfect score? Really?? This is absurd. There just wasn’t much to that dance. Either she’s going home…or she’s going on tour and they need her to get close to winning. Seriously pushing her through to the top three. As of right now she’s 3 and 4 points ahead of Sadie and Bethany, respectively. I’m thinking the judges want either Beth or Sadie in the final – not both. Bastards.

Alfonso did a great job for having back pain. Hell, he did better than Janel, IMO. WTF, Julianne?? I think she’s sitting to close to CAI – didn’t understand what she said at all.

Damn, I’m a huge Sadie fan but I did not like that AT. The guitar was way too distracting and she messed up quite a few steps in the beginning. Got to agree with Len. It was a little too soft too.

Great job from Tommy and Peta! Wow. I’m really impressed. And he’s at 76!! Loved it.

LOL to Tom taking a shot at Val and Maks. Hehehehe….

Holy shit, Tommy got 9’s!! I guess he’s going home. Damn.

New Christmas wish – that Derek doesn’t do this show next season. This show doesn’t actually deserve him any more. It doesn’t deserve Mark either, for that matter.

Bethany’s package made me a bit weepy. Kids are so damn mean.

That was lovely. She’ll get hosed. Again, CAI sounds upset that she actually danced well. Idiot.

Happy to be wrong – perfect score for Beth. About to be totally ruined by another perfect score for the chosen one.

Much better dance for Val and Janel than the first one but still not perfect. It felt sloppy to me…and it was too short with Val playing the violin. Agreed with CAI for a change on the ungraceful part – too many lifts that she came out of roughly.

But I have to say that the unplugged is VERY hard for an Argentine Tango. Best one I’ve ever seen was Derek and Jennifer. I didn’t see anything in this dance that had never been done before, either.

Two 10s for Janel is, once again, ridiculous. But she’s only two points ahead of Bethany. That’s doable. Unless they’ve underplayed Beth so much that she’s not getting the votes. Sadie?? Could have a problem, but I think she’s beating Beth and Janel in votes, so I guess we’ll see.

Again, Alfonso does really well but you can tell he’s injured, I think. But still a great job. Whitney is really impressing me a lot this season.

And, as expected, Tommy and Peta are eliminated. They broke my heart by calling Janel safe first. :-)

November 17, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 19, Week 10 – Who’s Dancing What….and When? (Song Spoilers)

Only two more weeks and I’m on vacay from DWTS for a bit. Turkey, champagne, stuffing, beer….lord, I can’t wait. :-) I’m going to read books, play video games, watch TV….ahhh. And all I want for Christmas is for Janel to be eliminated SOON. I don’t expect to get my one wish, but you can’t get them if you don’t make them. :-)

Alfonso and Witney (Song: “Love Runs Out” by One Republic )
Argentine Tango
Contemporary
Vote: 1-800-868-3401

Tommy and Peta (Song: “Tainted Love” by Soft Cell and Hannah Peel )
Jazz
Rumba
Vote: 1-800-868-3413

Janel and  Val (Song: “Blame” by Calvin Harris )
Paso Doble
Argentine Tango
Vote: 1-800-868-3405

Sadie and Mark (Song: “Problem” by Arianna Grande )
Quickstep
Argentine Tango
Vote: 1-800-868-3411

Bethany and Derek (Song: “I Want You Back” by the Jackson Five and The Civil Wars)
Samba
Contemporary
Vote: 1-800-868-3403

November 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 9: Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, we’re finally to the point of the competition where things could get interesting. But probably not. Yet. :-) Why? Well, we find out once and for all if Tommy’s fanbase is all that.

I’m not going to talk much about the scoring this past week – I think I’ve made my feelings abundantly clear. Whole lotta work going on to make sure that Tommy doesn’t go to the finals – and that Janel DOES go to the finals. Could say the same for Sadie, I guess, since she clearly forgot the choreo and if we complain about mistakes being overlooked for one contestant, I guess we have to do the same for the other. Thing is, I can’t get too worked up about Sadie because she forgot – you wouldn’t have known if you were watching just her and not Emma. It wasn’t a flub as much as an ad lib, if that makes any sense. I can actually believe, in her case, that the judges didn’t see it. They clearly did see in Janel’s case – and didn’t care.

Anyway, still peeved but moving on. Really tough row to hoe this week for Tommy. I’ll be very curious to see if he makes it or not. Let’s take a look at the scores.

Week 9 Table 1

Miniscule points between the top four – huge points between first and last place. And I really can’t argue with it too much. Love Tommy and Peta very much – but he’s not the dancer that the others are and he knows it.

But what does he have to do to stay?

Week 9 Table 2

It will take a minute, here, to explain why if Tommy is killing it in votes it will be Janel who suffers. I think. :-) The next lowest person is Sadie, but…

Week 9 Table 3

As you can see, Sadie only needs 2,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bethany. I have no idea if she’s managing that or not. I think she’s getting a ton of votes, but it all depends on if Bethany’s Motavators are all voting. If they are…well, still hard to say.  But it doesn’t matter. Why? Because I would wager that both girls are beating Janel handily. There’s tiny margins once you get higher than Tommy on the leaderboard. Here’s Bethany’s chart:

Week 9 Table 4

Now, Sadie only needs 9,400 votes per million votes cast to beat Janel or Alfonso. Don’t know if she’s managing it with Alfonso, but I would bet she is beating Janel. That’s why it doesn’t matter if she’s beating Bethany at this point – she’s beating Janel (I believe) and I think that Bethany is also beating Janel, since she only needs roughly 7,010 more votes per million votes cast.

Alfonso only needs ONE more vote per million votes cast to beat Janel and do I think he’s getting that? Of course.

So, what I think that all means is that Sadie is beating Janel, Bethany is beating Janel and Alfonso is beating Janel – which means it could well come down to Janel and Tommy as the bottom two.

So, who will go home? Well, I think Tommy will because as much as I think he is raking in votes, he would have to get nearly 47k more votes per million votes cast to beat Janel. That’s a lot of votes.

Before anyone asks, yes it has been done before. Kurt Warner got about that many (49k?) to send Audrina Patridge (who was at or near the top of the leaderboard) home in week 6 of Season 11.  There have been a few instances of contestants overcoming big numbers of votes to stick around.  As I said at the time, it was not just that they were getting lots of votes, but that the person eliminated was getting few. Audrina (as Courtney and I predicted a couple week before she was eliminated) was one of those and for a long while, I believed Janel was one of those. Is she still? Well, usually this level of pimpage doesn’t work. But sometimes a gullible audience just now turning into the season buys it. But it’s always possible that they like the other contestants better. I will say that this is the first season in a while that I wasn’t SURE who would win. But I am pretty sure it will be neither Tommy nor Janel. Beyond that, the finish order is a toss up. Eveything will hinge on the scores.

So, I’m pretty sure that the wacky scoring this week did the trick and Tommy will sail off into the night. He’s had a great run and he’s given me a new appreciation for Peta. If it’s anyone other than him or Janel I will be mildly surprised, but not shocked. Three young girls with correspondingly young fanbases and you just never know what those kids are doing. :-)

 

November 13, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)