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Dancing with the Stars Season 18, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers!

Sorry…I just thought the above picture was gorgeous.

Note: As of 1 pm Eastern time, James was KILLING it in the encore votes with nearly double the tweets of Meryl. Amy was in third with Candace in last place. I suspect that, in the interest of keeping this the “Meryl and Maks show” that James won’t be the one redoing his freestyle. @DWTSGossip also says that it’s open to the “remaining couples” – when the “remaining” is counted, I don’t know. I do know that I would rather see James over Meryl, but I won’t hold my breath. :-)

Well, I called it after Candace’s freestyle – massive underscore because she was going through to Tuesday and they have to make sure she doesn’t actually win. And when you see the math you will see they gave it the ole college try.

Of course there is another dance tomorrow night. It can go one of two ways between Meryl and Amy. They will give them both either 27’s or 30’s and let the audience decide. They might even put Amy a point ahead to tie the score.  I expect they might even put Candace up there too, because they’ve created such a margin already it may not matter. If they are really afraid Meryl might not win, I would expect them to underscore Amy relative to Meryl UNLESS Amy just kills it and they can’t underscore without being obvious. Kinda like Len did tonight. :::rolls eyes:::

Anyway, here’s where we stand after two dances.

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 1

Totally not surprised that they pretty much ranked them, and really Meryl and Maks fans shouldn’t get too comfortable – Zendaya was ahead by a point too.  ;-)

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 2

As you can see from the table above, going into voting Candace needs a TON of votes just to get past Amy. This bums me out because if Amy isn’t going to win, I don’t want her standing there when Maks and his family create some outrageous display leaving Meryl in the dust. Of course, now that I think about it, I really don’t want Candace and Mark standing there either, with her kids watching. Prove me wrong, Fam – show some class.

Right now, for Candace to WIN, she needs both of the following:

  • Candace needs 47,100 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, AND;
  • Candace needs 53,000 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

This is not unheard of, although that’s close to the record.  Bigger margins have been beaten…just never in the finale. It’s unlikely to happen now.

As for Amy, what does she need to do to win?  Both of the following:

  • Amy needs for Candace to NOT get the 47,100 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Amy needs 5,900 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

As I said earlier, this is totally doable. Will it happen? I’m thinking probably not, mainly due to the tongue baths Meryl has gotten all season, in addition to a pretty massive fanbase, especially compared to Amy. Meryl is a gold medal winning ICE DANCER fresh off the most recent Olympics. Amy is a snowboarder and they barely show her version of the Olympics on TV. Then there is the whole showmance angle – believe it or not some people actually fall for that crap. Later this summer when Maks is photographed with JLo all over the place there are going to be a whole lot of disillusioned fangirls crying in their Diet Pepsi and cursing Maks.

Now, what happens when they add another set of points tomorrow? Well, odds are, nothing changes too much. I’m going to take a stab at it – but I swear the judges read this blog (just like Conrad does) and do the opposite of what I guess.   I would bet, since they took great pains to underscore Candace that that trend will continue. Here’s my first scenario:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 3

And scores like those above lead to the following:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 4

As you can see, the margins decreased only slightly. Candace still has a lot of ground to make up. Amy has a bit less. But if they REALLY want Meryl to win and are afraid of Amy, they could rank them more significantly tomorrow. If Amy has even the tiniest mistake and Meryl doesn’t, we could see something like this:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 5

Which would lead to the following:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 6

This scenario puts Meryl way out in front and, considering that when I was voting I kept getting a Meryl and Maks video, I don’t find it to be too unlikely. It’s kinda ridiculous. I don’t think the producers care who wins, as much as they have preferences as to who will make the finale for a variety of reasons. The judges on the other hand, may have an interest in the “best dancer” winning. BUT at the same time, they don’t want to be seen as assholes or as people who are tilting it one way or the other at this stage of the game. IF Amy and Meryl perform comparable dances like they did last night, I expect scenario one to be pretty likely. Like I said, they may even give Candace a 27. Most seasons, as I recall (and I really have to research it) they hesitate to take the decision out of the voter’s hands completely. I think that trend will continue.

At the end of the day, I expect that Maks will finally get his desperately desired and coveted MBT, but casual viewers years from now will remember when Derek Hough took that Amy Purdy gurl to the finale and she danced beautifully despite some disability which they can’t quite remember – because she was just that good.  And Candace’s kids will remember when their mom made the finale of Dancing with the Stars and how she was tough as nails and danced under extreme pressure. Derek gets nominated for another Emmy and Mark has great success at his music. Everybody wins.

May 20, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18, THE FINALE, Part 1 – Let’s Recap Tonight’s Show (Spoilers)

Once again, due to heavy traffic, we have to institute a few ground rules for tonight show. Most of these are good rules ALL OF THE TIME, and are basic netiquette.

  1. DO NOT hit refresh every few seconds – in fact, do not hit refresh every five minutes! Read, comment if you like, then walk away from the computer for five to ten minutes. I know this is hard, but it will prevent others from losing their minds trying to read and/or update the site.
  2. DO NOT use the comment section like it’s twitter – it’s not twitter. Make an actual comment with context of who you’re talking about, who you’re talking to (if it applies), etc. Context, and more than one line. If you break this rule more than one time, I start deleting. If you do it a couple times, you’ll find yourself on moderation.  Perhaps for life. :-)  Keep in mind that if you can’t follow this rule, I can make you follow it.
  3. Try very hard to keep the ugly to a minimum. Think before you post. If you’ve been called out previously on this blog for your behavior, this will be extra important because there’s only so much I will tolerate. I’m not talking about differing opinions, I’m talking about nasty. If I get the sense that you are purposely trolling  (look it up if you’re not sure), I will just block you. No warning other than this one.

Again, we’ve turned on the Comment Moderation feature for the entire site. That way, in the event of an unexpected elimination, we can week out any trouble makers that much quicker. ;-)

Tonight’s Drinking Game: Take a  shot every time they show Mark getting hurt and ask if he will dance. Take a double shot every time someone mentions that Maks has never won before. Triple shot if it’s Maks himself.  See you all in rehab tomorrow. :-)

ETA: Well, you oughta be half drunk already. :-)  Everyone looks pretty though.

ETA: James is IN IT TO WIN IT. Take that Meryl and Maks shippers…oh don’t worry, you’ll get your kissing. :-P  Really, good dance from James.

Can’t believe Meryl is finally going second….now when it no longer matters. Guess they did learn from Zendaya, eh?

ETA3: Good dance by Meryl and Maks, but I still don’t feel all this magic that I sense I’m supposed to get. :-)

ETA4: Poor Candace and Mark. She struggled with that dance and I have a feeling she’ll get a more generous score than she should…but hell, they were right. That had to be harder than hell to have Mark go down and be uncertain if he would dance with you or not, but she held up really well. She looked very pretty too. :-)  Love her.

ETA5: WOW. Are we sure that Amy is a double amputee?? Cuz that dance was a big ole FU to her critics. LOL.  And Jennifer Grey in the audience looking like she was going to lose it complete. Awesome. :-D

ETA6: Great freestyle by James!! Loved it. Looked like Sonya might have choreo’d it.

ETA7: Whoa, Evan dude lighten up!

ETA8 Boy, I’m really surprised by that almost kiss. And that dance didn’t look anything like Derek and Kelly’s. Except for the staging, the lighting, almost costume too. :-D

ETA9: Love Tom making fun of the whole teddy bear thing. And really seriously even the comments from Len and Bruno were the same as they were for Kelly’s freestyle.

ETA10: I was too nervous to even watch Candace and Mark, I was afraid Mark’s damn shoulder was going pop out. Boy has balls that’s for sure.

ETA11: Nope, no agenda. CAI starting to sound like Meryl and Maks fans – asking about lifts less than half an hour after Meryl did a dance with just as many. :::rolls eyes::: At least she didn’t purposely underscore her cuz she didn’t like the rope, LEN.  THIS is what we’re talking about when we way that other couples get away with shit that Derek can’t.  Anyway, beautiful dance – I was nervous the whole time, wondering what Derek was up to.

ETA12: When I’m right, I’m right. Not even 15 minutes ago I said that the very bad score on Candace’s freestyle likely meant that Candace was going through. Not surprising.  And they were likely called safe in the order they will place tomorrow. Meryl, Amy and then Candace.  But it doesn’t have to be if everyone VOTES!! ;-)

May 19, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18, THE FINALE: Who’s Dancing What…and When?? (SPOILERS)

Well, I’m looking forward to a great night of dancing!! Especially curious about the freestyles. :-)

Warning…I will be turning comment moderation on during the show again and the rules we’ve been using for the last couple weeks will apply once again.

The dances shown below are for night one. It appears that all couples that make it to Tuesday will be doing a 24-hour fusion dance, similar to last season, I would imagine.

Candace and Mark
Quickstep
Freestyle
1-800-868-3407

Amy and Derek
Salsa
Freestyle
1-800-868-3410

James and Peta
Tango
Freestyle
1-800-868-3402

Meryl and Maks
Argentine Tango
Freestyle
1-800-868-3406

May 18, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars – Winning Freestyles Through the Years, Part Three

On to part 3!! Where everything became “supersized”. :-) Be sure to watch part 1 and Part 2 so you can get the full history.

Season 13 – JR and Karina. I remember not being overly impressed by this one at the time, possibly because I saw so many moves that I had seen in Derek’s previous dances, not that they belonged to him or anything. But in retrospect, it’s quite good and it’s certainly the best of the season. Loved the ending bit the most. :-) Read more..

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars – Winning Freestyles Through the Years, Part Two

Okay, here’s part 2 – be sure to watch part 1 so you can get the full history.

Part 2 could be called the “Hough-Ballas-Johnson” Section. :-) What I notice about Derek and Mark’s early Freestyles is that they craft something exciting but they still get a lot of actual dancing in there. I remember critics saying it was all lifts and no dancing….crack is wack, ya’ll. Looking forward to seeing both freestyles from them this Monday as they’ve both matured so much in both style and choreography.

Season 7 – Brooke and Derek. I loved this freestyle. It’s funny to watch now as Derek is a good bit smaller – you’ll also note that this is the beginning of his recurring back problems. What I loved about this freestyle is that, from Brooke, it was unexpected, I think. She was the best dancer this season and I remember thinking that there was no way she was beating Warren the showman – I think this dance might have done it for her. Read more..

May 17, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars – Winning Freestyles Through the Years, Part One

All the talk about freestyles actually had me go back and watch quite a few of the winners and losers to see what the couples have to live up to on Monday. It’s a rather daunting task, to create one that is really good and, just as important, MEMORABLE. If you subscribe to the Derek Hough school of thought, you want it to be remembered more than you want the MBT. Which of the couples will manage that Monday night?? A couple of them have really good track records, for sure. :-)

Season 1 – it’s rather shocking to watch season 1′s freestyles and remember that they did ACTUAL ballroom. You’ll note that once the Hough Ballas Crowd came along, the bar on the freestyles rose considerably. This one was not bad, considering the time frame, but there were a lot of mis-steps in it. Pay particular attention to the judges and how mellow they are and non-dramatic. This was before they became invested in being the stars of the show. Read more..

May 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think the writing is on the wall for Candace, this week, I’m afraid. I’ll be very surprised to see her make it to night two. Not that it matters. She made it to the finale with Meryl, Amy and James and she should be VERY proud of that fact. I’m willing to bet that Mark gives her an amazing freestyle and I’m looking forward to seeing it. I’m looking forward to seeing all of them, actually.

In case you’re wondering, my last DBTN post will be on Tuesday morning and will show what the various players have to do to WIN – even though I think the odds are pretty firmly behind Meryl at this point. It all depends on if Maks manages a great Freestyle compared to the others. If they all suck, then he’s fine, but if Mark, Derek and Peta put on amazing freestyles and he doesn’t?? It might change the game. It might not, but it could.  And before you start squawking about facebook…that seems to work for who gets eliminated, but I wouldn’t be so sure that it works for who WINS. You have to think about how Facebook likes actually work. You also have to consider the fan groups involved. Do you think that the Meryl and Maks fans are doing everything they can to make sure ALL of them go to facebook and “like” those photos, now that it seems to show something?? I sure do. Do all fan groups do that? Beyond one tweet, probably not. Now that people know it appears to work, they will work harder to “like” – yes, it is extremely counterintuitive, but does that surprise you? You also have to consider that some people probably “like” more than one person or dance – so while the lack of likes may show who’s leaving, an excess of likes may not indicate a WIN.  Then there is a duration issue. How long do they wait between posting photos?? Is one couples photos going up first?  Just some things to consider.  I may analyze it more once the season is over – more from an intuitive angle than an actual math angle.

Anyway. This week I just left out the part of the post that includes Charlie’s numbers and went straight to the four remaining dancers. Sue me, I’m tired and I want to do something else. Here’s how it stacks up after two dances:

Week 9 Table 1

That order right there is how I think it will end up, on Tuesday, although it’s heavily dependent on the scores. Anyway, Meryl’s only got a 2 point lead on Amy and a 4 point lead on Candace. Not many points, but at this stage of the game it does equate to a good number of votes.

Week 9 Table 2

For Candace to make it to Tuesday night, she needs one of three things to happen:

  • Candace needs about 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than James, OR;
  • Candace needs about 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • Candace needs about 26,200 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

I really don’t see any of that happening. It’s too stacked against her.  Both she and James have been the last one standing a couple times, so I think if Candace can pass anyone, it will be James. If she were to do that James would need to get past either Amy or Meryl which involves:

  • James would have to get 6,600 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • James would need 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

If anything is going to work, he would get past Amy. He is the big heart throb after all. The only question is if the girls are seriously voting. He could be getting past Amy, but that only matters if Candace is getting past him. We won’t know until Monday night.

So, I think that Meryl is the only one safe for sure. The other three are in jeopardy. I predict that Candace is the one to be eliminated on Monday.  If Candace is beating James, I think Amy could go home because James doesn’t have to do much to get past her. Remember…heart throb. :-)

Here’s another prediction for you – I predict that if James makes it into the finale, they call him safe FIRST. Just to mess with ya’lls heads. Well, Meryl and Maks fans heads. We’ll see. And if they call Candace safe first? Amy fans should be worried.

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Glamour Interviews the DWTS Season 18 Finalists

Great interviews by Jessica Radloff – I’ve put a small excerpt below, and you can read all of them at Glamour.com:

Glamour: So now that you’ve revealed you’ll be dancing to New Kids on the Block in your freestyle…
Candace: Amazing!
Mark: No! 
Glamour: Ugh, fine! Let’s get down to business. @DWTSGossip wants to know what you enjoy more, Mark? Teaching the dance, creating the dance, or performing the dance?
Candace: It’s not teaching the dance to Candace. I can answer that for you!
Mark: I really enjoy creating the dance. I don’t like teaching it. I love performing it. Even as a child when I had to compete, I hated having to practice. I hated the lessons. It just goes on and on and on. I just wanted to get out there and do it. The creative and the performance aspect, I live for that, but I understand you have to go through the teaching process first. 
Glamour@Internetloves wants to know if it’s hard to hear songs that you’ve danced to without always recounting the steps in your head?
Mark: I can’t listen to “Say Something” anymore.
Candace: That was one of my favorite songs, and I can’t even listen to it anymore because it was such a hard dance and it ruined the song for me. But now, even songs that I listen to, even if it was one of Maks and Meryl’s, or Charlie and Sharna’s, I’m always seeing the dance now instead of listening purely to the song.
Glamour: I overheard you saying that you’ve already surpassed your goal just by getting to the finals, so if not you, who would you like to see win the Mirrorball trophy?
Mark: It’s hard. For consistency and natural dance ability, Meryl is a winner. Maks has done incredible work this season and deserves a shot. Peta too. Peta and James have come a long way. But to pick one, it’s tough. Out of loyalty, I’d back Derek. He’s family.

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18 – The Finale, with Team Loca, Davis and White, and MORE!

Including last season’s winner, Amber Riley!! Meryl and Charlie will dance together – as I predicted a while ago. May as well suck in as many viewers as possible.  From Broadway World – click the link to read the whole thing:

On MONDAY, MAY 19 (8:00-9:30 p.m., ET), the four remaining couples will compete in two rounds of dance. In the first round, each couple will take on the “Judges Pick” and repeat the same dance style they did the week of the “Switch-Up.” In the second round, one of the biggest competitive dances of the season, the couples take on a supersized Freestyle featuring special effects, additional dancers and unexpected surprises. At the end of night, one couple will be eliminated based on the previous weeks’ viewer votes, combined with the judges’ scores from the previous Monday night. 


In the two-hour Season Finale on TUESDAY, MAY 20 (9:00-11:00 p.m., ET) the show will begin with a high-energy performance featuring a reunion of all 12 of this season’s couples as well as the judges. Then, as decided on by a Twitter vote, one of the three remaining couples will perform their Freestyle dance as an encore. The finale will also feature a performance to “Livin’ La Vida Loca,” by Team Loca, giving viewers at home a chance to watch the routine live with Amy Purdy, as she was unable to dance during the original Team Night due to an injury. Additionally, viewers will be treated to encore performances by Drew Carey and Cheryl Burke to “You Can’t Sit Down,” Nene Leakes to “Grown Woman” featuring six Pro Dancers, Danica McKellar and Val Chmerkovskiy to “Be Our Guest,” and Charlie White and Sharna Burgess to “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.” Additionally, Olympic Gold Medalist partners Charlie and Meryl will dance together for the first time. In the last element of competition, the couples will perform a new routine as part of a “24 Hour Fusion Challenge.” The remaining couples will Fuse two contrasting dance styles that they’ve performed this season and they’ll have less than 24 hours to prepare that dance for judges’ points. 

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Private Members Area – What Are Shippers and Why Are They A Problem?

We have discussed “shippers” many times on this site and Courtney had talked about doing a post about them. I responded that I would take the “anti-shipper” view.  Considering the two people who are at the top of the leaderboard this season, I figured it was a good time to post it.

What is a shipper? Well, a shipper is someone who is invested in the romantic relationship of two people who are on TV.  More carefully defined, it is a person who wants two characters to get together and/or shows support for two characters already together. This started in the X-Files fandom and was originally limited to fictional programs. Of course, back then there wasn’t “reality” TV like there is now. I was heavily involved in the X-Files fandom and that, I must say, was back when shippers were fun. At first. But I digress.

I have no real problem with the casual observation that two people look hot together. Or the observation that it seems OBVIOUS that they’re knocking boots outside the dance studio. Or even the observation that the babies would be so pretty. Especially when there seems to be some evidence that it is true. I think this is relatively normal behavior. But I also don’t think this is really “shipping” as it is defined nowadays. I think it’s speculation, and usually harmless. I would even go so far as saying, when limited to FICTIONAL characters, it can be fun, in its light hearted, romance novel, fan fiction form.  We’ll talk about slash another time.  I don’t want to make John’s delicate sensibilities catch on fire or anything. :-D But as long as it stays just for fun and an OCCASIONAL past time, no harm no foul.  Read more..

May 15, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)