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DWTS Season 19, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I was cranky (apparently) when watching the show last night, cuz I wasn’t terribly impressed by anyone – except Bethany and Sadie, CAI’s least favorite girls.  Well, I should say I *loved* Alfonso’s dance as well, but I could see what the judges were talking about.  Totally don’t understand why Sadie got totally hosed. I’m thinking I’ll have to rewatch it. I think she danced better – more personality, less mugging – than Janel, and Janel is the one with training. Even though we should be calling her JanelNotADancer because it’s not getting mentioned on the show.  I did see Len on All Access right after the show and he seemed to be regretting some of his marks. He only mentioned overmarking Jonathan, but he wanted to say more. Maybe about Sadie since she had so recently danced??

Anyway, let’s take a look at the Scores and percentages:

Wk 2 Table 1

Well, I don’t know who I would put in first place, but I’m not sure it’s Lea. I love Lea, she’s a beautiful dancer and woman – but when I can see posture problems and wonder why the judges are raving, you know you got problems. Anyway, she was in jeopardy last week so she may not be getting the votes. But I do think there is enough of a cushion for her to be safe to dance another day. I also think there is little chance of Alfonso, Sadie or Bethany going anywhere – not yet anyway. Janel is likely fine as well, although I’m afraid her time will come.

That brings us to the lower half of the leaderboard. Well, lower two-thirds? Antonio I think is likely fine, for now, but only because there is much bigger cannon fodder than him. I also can’t be the only one who finds Randy hot. :-) The low man on the totem pole, score wise, is Michael. While I agree with what many have been saying, about him not having quite the charm combined with more limited dance skill, part of me thinks that his onesie giving him a wedgie may have bought him two weeks, not just one. I could certainly be wrong, but I’m leaning toward Tavis. But let’s look and see what it will take for Michael to be safe:

Wk 2 Table 2

See, this is where it gets tough. Michael may be more likeable than Tavis, but that four points translates to 11k votes per million votes cast. That is tough. But he has four different people to choose from when it comes to beating them. Problem is that a couple of them are really likable as well. I adore Tommy and I can’t believe he would be going anywhere. I also thought Betsey was great last night – but she’s a tad on the weird and wild side. Tavis just talks too damn much and I find him ponderous and a bit annoying. I doubt I’m alone.

So, for Michael to be safe, he needs ONE of the following:
– 11k more votes per million votes cast than either Tavis, Tommy, Betsey or Randy, OR;
– He needs about 16.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan…

…and so on, as shown in Table 2.

Personally, I think he’s only within striking distance of the 11k votes of the people directly above him. But I’ve been wrong before. :-) Let’s say that Michael is getting the votes – what do Tavis, Randy, Betsey and Tommy need to be safe??

Wk 2 Table 3

Well, not very much at all. Each only needs ONE vote per million votes cast than the others in their little group, and all of them only need 5,525 more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan. Hell, Sadie and Antonio are in easy striking distance as well…if not for the fact of Tavis and Michael being down below them, I’d be worried for them. Bethany too. But, I don’t see anyone other than Randy, Betsey and Tommy MAYBE making the leap over Jonathan. See, the one drawback to hosing a pro (Allison – deserved or not) is that it generates sympathy votes.

Anyway, I think that Michael can only beat Tavis. I think that Tavis might beat Betsey, but I dunno. I don’t think he’s beating either Tommy or Randy, and I don’t think he’s catching Jonathan, Sadie or Antonio. I think the real bottom two is likely Michael and Tavis, but don’t be surprised to see Jonathan in jeopardy whether he’s really near the bottom or not. After Allison’s scolding and her speaking up in the Skybox, combined with the shock value of Betsey being safe again, I kinda look for the last three left standing to be Michael, Tavis and Jonathan.

There’s kind of a lot of weak dancers with great personalities, so I could be way off base here. At the end of the night, I think Tavis goes home. If it’s not him, then Michael. If there’s a shocker…Randy because he went so early in the night.

September 23, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 LIVE STREAM!

As discussed in our weekly discussion post, this is where you can watch the live stream from abc.com once it starts.  I’ve put Lacey’s feed up here for the time being – if anyone has another preference, let me know. Someone from DWTS PR (I think) that we promote their stream…since I like it, I thought “why not?”



Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream

 

September 22, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 Week TWO!! Let’s discuss tonight’s show! (Spoilers)

Week two already!!  Looking forward to some dancing tonight. Hopefully there won’t be as many train wrecks tonight was there were last week.   Also, DWTS wants us to pimp the livestream so….you can view Lacey’s Stream on our site, if I can get it to work properly. :-)

Once again, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules.

  1. Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site. :-)
  2. THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. :-) We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.”  If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. :-D  Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1. ;-)

Oy veh!! Big competition on all networks tonight. I’ll be interested to see if DWTS can maintain it’s Top 10 status.

Randy is hot. Hot, hot, hot.

I kinda dug the opening number but I was expecting more I guess. Read more..

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars 19, Week 1 – The Cheesecake Awards!!

Well, lookie here…for one week, at least, Courtney and I are in a “mood”. Duck and cover, and sensitive readers beware – we spare almost no one, most of the time.

Why I want to do dancing with the stars: What the Women were REALLY Saying:
Janel: Cuz I’m Hawaiian and mama needs a showmance.
Sadie: They won’t let me dance in Louisiana and religious girls don’t suck…at dancing.
Lolo: They let me dance but I sucked real bad. And that gave me a sad.
Lea: I danced great but ballet man said I was short and plain. Suck it, Misha.
Bethany: People were mean to me and now they can suck it.
Betsy: I can do the splits better then any of these young chicks; in my head I’m a Rockette.

Why I want to do dancing with the stars: What the Men were REALLY Saying:
Alfonso: Because there’s more glitter than on the biggest loser.
Tommy: The wife is more impressed by amazing dance moves than smoke clouds from the weed.
Tavis: I’m not serious! Blah blah blah gravitas blah blah blah gravitas blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah dammit. :::zzzzz:::
Antonio: I wanted to revive my career for years, and this is just the show to do it.
Jonathan: I miss my dad.
Randy: Fighters are people too. Agree with me or I kill you.
Michael: Bill Engvall got to dance with hot chicks. I can dance with hot chicks too. Read more..

September 21, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 19, Week 2 – Who’s Dancing What….and When? (Song Spoilers)

Well, well, well….DWTS tryin’ to spoil our spoilin’. Those crazy kids. Maybe some knickers were twisted by last weeks spoiling?? LOL

Hey, Lea mentioned doing something with “Back to the Future” or a “surprise” for next week – think next week is Personal Story week? ;-)

Anyway, here are the dances and a few songs for you folks. Derek is about as subtle as a sledge hammer with his song, and DWTS spoiled Janel’s and hinted at Alfonso’s. So, just to be contrary, we’re throwing in Randy’s too. Unless they’ve spoiled that somewhere as well. Bummed that Janel is almost certain to ruin my happy memories of “Call Me Maybe”.

Anyone else think that Sadie and Mark will KILL the Jazz?? I sure do.

ETA: We’d appreciate you not jumping the gun in comments, thanks.

ETA2: Well, ABC reallllly wanted to be in charge of releasing the songs this week, as they’ve put them all in a press release, spoiling all our fun. ;-)

Monday’s show kicks-off with a spectacular opening number featuring the full cast and judges dancing to a medley of the judges’ favorite songs. Each couple will then perform a variety of dances, including the Cha Cha, Foxtrot, Jive and Rumba, to their favorite jam. (Heidi’s Note: yeah, not so much.)

Oh, and this (results show) has potential…

Judge Julianne Hough takes to the ballroom floor and will dance in a number featuring Derek Hough and the male Pros.

ETA3: Not a very good position for Janel, all things considered.

ETA4: Aaannd, probably a better running order spot than Antonio should have, when there’s a results show and no elimination at the end of the show.

Tavis and Sharna – Cha Cha Cha (Song: “Boogie Wonderland” by Earth, Wind & Fire )
Vote: 1-800-868-3412

Janel and Val – Foxtrot (Song: “Call Me Maybe” by Carly Rae Jepsen )
Dancing 2nd
Vote: 1-800-868-3405

Jonathan and Allison – Cha Cha Cha (Song: “Sing” by Ed Sheeran )
Vote: 1-800-868-3406

Betsey and Tony – Foxtrot (Song: “Girls Just Wanna Have Fun” by Cyndi Lauper )
Vote: 1-800-868-3404 Read more..

September 18, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 1 Discussed on Afterbuzz TV

I haven’t had a chance to listen to the whole thing yet, so I can’t give my full commentary. :-)

September 17, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 Week ONE RESULTS!! Let’s discuss tonight’s show! (Spoilers)

Yay – a results show!! Let’s hope for some great dancing!! Maybe material for cheesecake, if Courtney and I are feeling up to it. :-)

Once again, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules.

  1. Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site. :-)
  2. THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. :-) We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.”  If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. :-D  Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1. ;-)

Lots of fun ppl in the audience like…..RALPH MACCHIOOOOOOOOO !!! (I love him.)

Nice opening dance by the women – Allison and Whitney pretty much rule this style but they were all awesome. :-)

Thought for sure they were gonna call Betsey safe. That they didn’t makes me question whether she actually IS safe.

So, I guess we’re putting four in jeopardy? Lea? That’s just wrong.

Allison is just a BEAST.

Oh. My. God. Derek’s screen test. Best thing I’ve ever seen. And neither he nor Julianne had a clue what was going to be shown.

Okay….The four in jeopardy are:

Michael and Emma

Betsey and Tony

Lea and Artem

Lolo and Keo

And tonight, leaving the ballroom is…..(This was a REAL BOTTOM TWO with Betsey being the other half)

LOLO AND KEO

Courtney’s Pick: Lolo and Keo

Heidi’s Pick: Lolo and Keo

Vogue’s Pick: Lolo and Keo

September 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I have to say that I’m really pleased with the dancing we saw last night. The show as a whole was rather sloppy, but that’s somewhat typical for the first show of the season when it’s jam packed with people.  Anyway, I just loved it. Of course, Derek is my favorite, but I can’t really pick another favorite. Love Jonathan, Sadie, Tommy, Alfonso, Randy, Lea….and of course, Bethany.

For those of you new to this blog, this is the post where I figure out how many votes the various couples need in order to stick around.  The math is fairly simple: you add up the total number of points handed out over the night, divide that total into each couple’s individual score for their percentage of the judges scores. The viewer votes are handed the same way – the total number of votes is divided into a couples votes for a percentage. The two percentages are then added together and the couple with the lowest combined total goes home.

Let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages:

Table 1

Now, as much as I love Sadie, I don’t think she is only 2 points back from Alfonso and 2 points ahead of Bethany and Lea. And she’s certainly not that far ahead of Randy. Nope. But she probably has the weakest fanbase on the show of those who can actually dance, so they might be protecting her a tiny bit. Although I don’t think that’s necessary.

Why? Well, while we have some absurdly high scores for week 1, we also have some really low scores for week 1. And sadly, most were deserved. Personally, I enjoyed Betsey WAY more than Lolo – and I would bet the average viewer agrees with me.  But Betsey is at the bottom.  Here’s what she needs to do to stick around:

Table 2

She only needs, roughly, 5,400 votes per million votes cast in order to stay over Lolo. Call me crazy, but I think she gets those votes. And Lolo kinda did it to herself with the constant talking. I could certainly be wrong, but she took a dance that was hard to watch and turned it into a whole segment that was hard to watch. Thank god for Tom Bergeron. Yikes.  Anyway, I think Betsey gets past Lolo. Good thing, too, because I don’t think she’s going to make it past either Michael or Antonio – Antonio, while somewhat wooden, certainly has his fans. Michael is just adorable and I want him to stay forever. But I feel that way about half the cast right now.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Betsey is totally safe. What does Lolo have to get in order to also be safe? She needs the following:

Table 3

She needs roughly 8,100 votes per million votes cast in order to beat either Michael or Antonio and honestly, I would be shocked if she got it. I feel very bad for Keo – I don’t want him to go. She needs 13,450 to get past Tommy and I don’t see that happening either.

So, without belaboring the point, I think Lolo goes home. If it’s not Lolo, it will be Betsey – it’s possible that where I saw charming, many saw trainwreck. If there’s a shocker I will do a post results explanation of what I think happened.

One final point, with all the characters in this cast, there are a couple people who need to watch out. Janel is the big one, IMO. All the hype she and Val have been putting out there and I don’t think she lived up to it. Make no mistake – she’s a decent dancer. But she got off easy – they tagged Lea as the ringer when Janel has more recent experience and got off scott free. This pisses me off…but by the end of the show I had forgotten about her. This leads to dangerous, shocking elim territory in coming weeks. Unfortunately, there are a lot of good dancers that could fall in to this trap – Lea, maybe Sadie and possibly Bethany (although with Derek as a partner, she will stand out whether she wants to or not). I love all three of them, but they are going up against Tommy, Randy, Alfonso, Jonathan and Michael?? These guys are not necessarily better dancers but they command the screen. Even if they are not the best dancers, you grow to LOVE them. So watch out, girls – this is a tough season.

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19 Week ONE!! Let’s discuss tonight’s show!

Hi kids!! Because there is a results show tomorrow night, this isn’t the usual spoiler post. But we thought you still might want someplace to discuss the show as it happens, etc. So here we are. As soon as Courtney gets her power rankings done, she will likely unstick this post from the top of the page and you can move over there to discuss if you like. Unless you’re off the topic of the couples….then you’ll probably want to stay here for a bit. :-) Either way, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules.

  1. Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site. :-)
  2. THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. :-) We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.”  If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. :-D  Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1. ;-)

My first comment of the night is: dammit, four live streams and a digital interview show?? Are you producers trying to hurt my poor little brain that just wants to watch a pretty dance show with hot boys?? SIMPLIFY people. Simplify. I don’t want to watch all that crap, but since I blog for two sites I feel obligated.

Thoughts so far:

Antonio – wooden

Lea – fantastic

Janel – over rated. They spent how much time on Lea’s experience and none on hers?? Not enough content – mugging at the camera, though.

Of course, TPTB put shipper tweets up on the screen for Val and Janel. And Val has started alluding to it. :::rolls eyes:::

Oh god, lolo.  Screw up and then talk too much.  Thank god for Tom Bergeron. I’m sorry, but the 6’s were generous.

Tony….PROPS ARE BAD. You and Betsey were doing so well up to then!!

Tavis did okay but I think Jules might have gotten into CAI’s crack. :-D

Sadie is soooo cute.

Rick Schroder in the audience…

Michael, I love you. “My onesie gave me a wedgie!”

OMG – I love Tommy Chong. That was amazing. Nice guest appearance by Cheech!!

Holy crap – Randy and Karina!! We got a competition, folks. Between the good dancers and the fun characters? Wow. Tough season.

Great job by Bethany!! And we had that freakin’ song right the first time!!!  Courtney texted me a “DAMMIT”. :-)  Very cute dance….I think she will be a contender if she can loosen up a bit.

Well, this could be a six way race to the trophy with Alfonso leading the way, followed by Randy, Lea, Sadie and Bethany.

Great first show everyone!! Courtney is coming up before too long with the Power Rankings!!

September 15, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 19 – “What do you mean I’m a ringer??” Update

Introduction

A couple of seasons ago, I created a set of criteria with which to measure the benefits some dancers on DWTS have compared to the other dancers. That is, ringers versus non-ringers. I attempted to be as logical and scientific as possible, although it’s impossible to remove all subjectivity from the issue. But it’s far better than simply saying “so and so isn’t a ringer, IMO”. In your opinion? If your opinion is purely subjective with no effort at logical or rational thought, then what good is it??

No good at all, actually. The original series sprung from an effort to debunk the old, tired and stupid claim that the only reason Derek does well is because he gets all the good partners and no one else gets them. Utter BS, of course. It would be a good idea to read that series before starting this one as I can’t guarantee that I’ll include all the same rationale this second time around and I don’t take well to discussing a subject with someone who is so rude as to not read the blogs. Read more..

September 14, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)