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Dancing with the Stars: The Jeopardy Theory

Every season, readers get very confused by the concepts of “bottom two” versus “jeopardy”. If you don’t listen carefully to what Tom and Brooke (now Erin) say, it’s easy to get confused. If a couple is in the bottom two, it means that they, along with the eliminated couple, had the lowest combined score. The combined score is determined by viewer votes and judges scores. The formula is relatively simple: they take a couple’s score and divide it by the total points handed out on a given night to get their share of the judges scores. They do the same with the viewer votes; they divide a couple’s number of votes by the total number of votes cast and come up with their share of the votes. They then add the two numbers together; the couple with the lowest combined total is then sent home.  You can see many examples of this in my series of posts called “Dancing by the Numbers”.

When the show is airing, there are two ways of getting to an elimination, by putting three couples in jeopardy (oh, the drama) and then saving one, and then one of the remaining two goes home. And then there is the straight up identification of the “bottom two” couples. Tom will say “the bottom two” if this is the case. If neither Tom nor Brooke (now Erin) says “these are the bottom two” then we don’t actually know if the two people standing at the end are really the low combined score getters. There are multiple reasons why they like do this. The main reason, of course, is DRAMA. How they love their drama. They like to make the show exciting and if the low scorer was immediately sent home every week, what fun would that be? This past week, you’ll note that Tom and Erin made it clear that Cody and Witney were “not necessarily” the bottom two.

The question that is asked every season is: does “jeopardy” (aka, being the last couple called safe) have any real meaning for the couples put there??  The answer is yes, of course. The problem is determining what that meaning is at the time. That is very difficult to do, although we’ve gotten pretty good at figuring it out every season.  You always have to remember a few key things:

  • The producers want to keep the show exciting, and jeopardy is a part of that;
  • The producers often have a reason why they want to keep a particular couple around longer and motivating fan bases to vote harder can be accomplished by “jeopardy” if they think the votes are too low;
  • Drama, drama, drama!! How exciting is it when the high scorer of the night is standing next to the low scorer of the night and you don’t know who’s going to survive – and the producers fool you into thinking that the low person is for sure going home…and then they don’t?

Yeah, I don’t think it’s really that exciting at this point in the show’s history, but I’ve long said that the producers have lost touch with their audience. :-)

Now, since I’m the biggest nerd of a blogger on this site, I wondered if there was any kind of pattern to the “jeopardy” and the subsequent eliminations. So I made tables of seasons 11 through 17 to try and figure it out. Hindsight is 20/20 – but it can inform how you watch the show going forward.  The answer, as you may have guessed, is that yes there is something of a pattern. Sometimes. And it’s an easy one to see when you’re looking back – but still impossible to be sure of when you’re watching the show in real time. :-) That is unlikely to change. Read more..

March 26, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18, Week 2 – Let’s Recap Tonight’s Show! (Spoilers)

Wow. A lot happened at the start of the show. Maybe I should do a list…

  • TPTB thought it would be cute to pair the couples in their opening dance by rivalry – Danica and Candace, Meryl and Maks and so on. Stoopid.
  • It’s always nice to see Maks dance with his daughter Witney…oh. Wait. ;-)
  • Surprise double elimination?? They must be making sure they don’t end up with another Bill Engvall situation. Well, that and it’s good to have an even number of couples for the big switcheroo
  • Drew is safe right off the bat? Should I draw a conclusion for that or is that going to occur throughout the show?
  • Are they going to show video of each star picking their dance to prove they didn’t make it up?? They do realize that shit could be filmed anytime by cooperative stars, right? :-D

Okay….enough for now. I missed Drew’s dance….

ETA:
Welcome to ringer judging, Val.

Zendaya is in the audience looking like a 35 year old.

Billy Dee is safe, eh? Might be Dean and Karina going home.

ETA2: Okay for those of you wanting to vote for the Switch, it’s just like Karina said. You vote like this:

#DWTSStarPro  For example, #DWTSMerylDerek or #DWTSAmyMark  That’s all you need. Or you can retweet your friends. I would add slightly new content at least once in a while so you don’t get tagged as spam.

ETA3: So Diana went home. They will reveal the second eliminee after NeNe, Sean and Cody have all danced.

March 24, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18, Week 2: Who’s Dancing What…and When??

Another week, another set of dances that the celebs supposedly picked. Riiiight. Tell it to Candace. :-) Lots of angst about the switch up – I say “bring it”. I’m quite confident that my favorite pro will look pretty darn good with anyone, included Nene or Diana….or James or Cody for that matter. :-) I refuse to get worked up about the switch, only about people bugging me about the switch. ;-) Part of me hopes Derek will indeed get Nene just to see what the “He’s never been challenged” people will say when they do terrific together. I imagine they will pretend it never happened, or she will magically become a ringer on the order of Meryl. :-D

The dances for this week? See below. I noticed that Val and Danica are already done with camera blocking. Figured I better get the post up. I figure that Sean is in trouble with the Salsa, as is Drew with the Jive. NeNe – hard to say. She’s a pretty good dancer, but I suspect we’ll see a non-jive kinda like was saw a non-cha cha. Question is, will Tony ever get called out? He doesn’t seem to get called out for anything that Derek and Mark get called out for. I think Danicathetotallynonringer will do fantastic with Samba. Billy could surprise us with the Tango and I expect Charlie to KILL the tango. Cody is a question mark. I really liked his cha cha on rewatching it – it could go either way though on Tango. Meryl – don’t be silly. Her swing will be amazing. I think I will be holding my breath during Amy’s swing, as there are apparently lifts and such. Scary. James and Salsa?? Hmmmm…I think he’ll be okay. We’ll find out soon!!

I kinda half assed a dance order, below. Not really expecting it to be close. :-) I sure wasn’t last week when I gave it more thought.

Diana and Henry – Cha Cha Cha
1-800-868-3411

NeNe And Tony – Jive
1-800-868-3401

Danica and Val – Samba
1-800-868-3403

Billy and Emma – Tango
1-800-868-3405

James and Peta – Salsa
1-800-868-3402

Charlie and Sharna – Tango
1-800-868-3412

Sean and Karina – Salsa
1-800-868-3404

Candace and Mark – Rumba
1-800-868-3407

Amy and Derek – Swing
1-800-868-3410

Cody and Witney – Tango
1-800-868-3408

Drew and Cheryl – Jive
1-800-868-3409

Meryl and Maks – Swing
1-800-868-3406

A whole bunch of instagram pics – what I usually do is post the first several I find, no matter who they are. Yes, I have two of Amy – I think she’s amazing. Sue me. :-) Read more..

March 23, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Heidi’s my name and numbers are my game. :-) Yes, it’s that time of year once again. I’d like to thank the powers that be for one thing: switching around how the eliminated couple is determined makes this much easier to predict. For one thing, I don’t have to backwards guess at what the judges might do next – it doesn’t matter because the viewer votes and the judges scores from the same week (week 1) will send someone home in week two regardless of how well they dance this upcoming week. For another thing, it makes these posts much shorter. Theoretically. :-)  The interesting thing will be is if the judges show a pattern of either extremely over scoring or extremely underscoring the couple going home – either send them out with a bang, or justify their scores ahead of time. Two or three times might be coincidence, but more than that? Hah.

Anyway, for you newbs to this site, this is a series I do every week of every season. Basically, I take the scores for each couple and figure out – using DWTS math – how many votes each couple needs to be safe. Then I guess, based on what I think I know about each couple and their voting needs, who’s going to be safe and who’s hitting the trail.

For those who don’t know…or those who believe the popular myth promoted by TPTB…the judges AND the viewers have an equal role in who stays and who goes. To determine who goes home, the producers take the total number of points handed out by the judges and divide that into each couples score for their percentage of the total.  They then do the same thing for the votes: they divide the total number of votes into the number of votes each couple receives for a percentage. They then add the two together and the couple with the lowest combined “score” is the one who goes home. Fifty percent of the final score is judges and fifty percent of the final score is viewer votes. Easy peasy. ;-)

Take a look at the totals. Read more..

March 20, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18, Week 1 – Let’s Recap Tonight’s Show! (Spoilers)

Well, as I said on twitter, if I wanted to see non-DWTS professional dancers, I would watch SYTYCD. Come on – last season’s opener was so fantastic, this one was just a FAIL on all accounts.

NeNe as surprising entertaining!  And the bit with James and Peta was entertaining – and he surprised me with his dancing.  But, the thing to remember is that they’ve had two weeks on this first dance – only the ringers will be really able to sustain that level in weeks 2 and 3, I think.

Danica may be a super ringer, but she’s also super annoying, but in a different way from her partner. :-D

Well…Billy Dee is older. This is the season they go harsh out of the gate??

I liked how they didn’t ignore Derek’s role in Meryl and charlie’s recent past. In Fact, Erin showed she’s not going to go too easy on Maks :-) But they were as fabulous as they were expected to be. Now I’m curious for Charlie.

Candace is also fantastic, and I liked Mark’s choreography. But his hair is out-of-control ridiculous. :-) Candace has to be careful to not get too annoying with the religious stuff.

Jaysus, Maks and Val have massive ringers and I’m seeing shit from their fans about Amy on twitter. Apparently, giving Amy to Derek and Meryl to Maks means they favor Derek and are rigging it in his favor.  Yeah, it sounds extremely stupid to me too. :-)

I don’t think Charlie was that much better than Meryl, although I think he’s cute as hell. :-)

I also love that Cheryl’s “OldManProblems” was trending on twitter. :-)

All in all, I’m extremely disappointed in the opening number, but the show overall was very good. I’d like to see Candice outlast Danica.  I do think the judges were scoring a bit to make sure that those good dancers or great stories outlast potential voting powerhouses like Billy Dee. But that’s nothing new for this show.

 

March 17, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18, Week 1: Who’s Dancing What…and When??

I can’t believe Season 18 is here – seems like 17 just ended, to be honest. But only because I’ve been working my fingers to the bone. :-)  And now I’m sick, to top it all off.

Anyway. Let’s see…what do we know so far? That Maks loves Meryl and he calls her “Princess”. For real – not condescendingly, but genuinely. We heard it through the grapevine. ;-)  It appears they are getting along very well – he is pleased that she’s hard working and she seems to respond well to his style of teaching. What we also know is that both Meryl and Charlie’s routines are looking REALLY GOOD – but I guess none of you are shocked by that, are ya??

We heard one other thing but I’ll save that for another time. Ahem. Nothing for you all to worry about.  I’ll let Courtney share that one when she feels like it. :-D

So, who’s dancing what? Well, since I’ve been getting killed at work and have managed to get sick, I’m going by Wiki and by DWTSGossip on the dances – I haven’t been able to keep up and Vogue is already doing so much for me that I didn’t want to bug her with this too.  :-) The order shown below is my GUESS and until you see a dance order and phone number near the names, it’s not official. Spots 6 and 7 are likely the top of the 9 o’clock hour and is a good spot. Least good spot? Historically it’s been 3rd and 2nd – I believe in that order. Of course, there is no real pimp spot anymore since they end every show except the first one with an elimination. But it’s still the best place to be, IMO. Until we get past the halfway point in the season, these things seem to be true. Once we get past the halfway point, the order doesn’t really matter as much.

ETA: I was off by a bit with James. He gave his voting number and TYPICALLY this matches the dance order. Not always. Sometimes they switch people around on Monday for one reason or another. I’m leaving my guess number in there just to see how I do. :-)

ETA2: As you can see, I’m sucking a bit at my first guess of the season. :-)

ETA3: Hey, I was really close on Candace!!

ETA4: Just a reminder – every season except the last one, the phone number has been a sign of the dance order on the first night. So, while it’s likely that these are the dance numbers in addition to the phone numbers, it’s entirely possible it could get screwed up between now and tomorrow night. Think muppets. :-)

ETA5: So if Meryl is really 6th…who is going last? Charlie? Cheryl straight up said that she and Drew are dancing 9th, so there’s that. 

ETA6: Court hopping in to update Amy & Derek and Billy & Emma’s voting #s/positions.  Should be interesting to see who gets the pimp spot – at this point, I’m leaning towards Charlie & Sharna.  Also looks like the first hour has been loaded up with most of the “weaker” couples – the second hour looks to be pretty competitive. By the way, Happy Saint Patty’s Day and Happy DWTS Premiere Day, errebody :-)

ETA7: Heidi here with Charlie’s dance number. Seems I had Charlie and Meryl pretty much reversed in my guesses. I guess Charlie beats Maks. LOL.

ETA8: List is complete as Cody’s mom tweets his voting #.  I would assume that Candace & Mark are dancing 7th, as that’s the last spot left. 

5. NeNe And Tony – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 1st (this makes more sense, as they always seem to lead with a Cha cha. Pun intended :-))
1-800-868-3401

4. James and Peta – Foxtrot
Dancing 2nd
1-800-868-3402

9. Danica and Val – Foxtrot
Dancing 3rd
1-800-868-3403

10. Sean and Karina – Contemporary
Dancing 4th
1-800-868-3404

8. Billy and Emma – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 5th
1-800-868-3405

12. Meryl and Maks – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 6th
1-800-868-3406

2. Candace and Mark – Contemporary
Dancing 7th (process of elimination)
1-800-868-3407

1. Cody and Witney – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 8th
1-800-868-3408

6. Drew and Cheryl – Foxtrot
Dancing 9th
1-800-868-3409

11. Amy and Derek – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 10th
1-800-868-3410

3. Diana and Henry – Foxtrot
Dancing 11th
1-800-868-3411

7. Charlie and Sharna – Contemporary
Dancing 12th
1-800-868-3412

Watch this space! We’ll add more info as we get it. :-)

ETA: a few photos. One is from Derek’s publicist, so I’m thinking that’s Derek and Amy. The other is Cody and Whitney.

DWTS S18 week 1 1

DWTS S18 week 1 2

 

March 15, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18 Premiere – The Switch Up, the Opening Number and “Creative Oversight” by Derek Hough

Well, the producers haven’t given much new info regarding the switch – likely because they don’t know – but I do read it as one week. As you might imagine, however, it’s the second paragraph that has me most interested. :-) Thanks to Kaitlyn for sending this to me.  From the ABC Press Release:

“Episode 1801” — “Dancing with the Stars” is back, and for the first time ever the show will premiere with a massive opening number featuring all pro dancers as they perform live with musical guest Jason Derulo. Derulo will sing his mega hit song “Talk Dirty,” marking the first time ever a musical guest has accompanied a season’s opening number. Each couple will then perform a Cha Cha, Foxtrot or Contemporary routine, vying for America’s vote. The two-hour season premiere begins MONDAY, MARCH 17 (8:00-10:01 p.m., ET) on the ABC Television Network

This season, “Macy’s Stars of Dance” returns to “Dancing with the Stars” with creative oversight by Emmy® Award-winning Choreographer and Pro Dancer, Derek Hough. “Macy’s Stars of Dance” showcases some of the best choreography and performers from all different styles of dance, and gives them the opportunity to perform in front of a national audience.

As previously announced on “Good Morning America”, the competition will feature a new game-changing twist called “The Switch Up.” For the first time ever, America will be given the power to vote and change celebrities and professional dance pairings. This new rule will affect all couples as they will be required to switch partners at one point in the season. Never before have dance partnerships been split up during the course of competition.

March 10, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18: Rumor, Speculation and Wannabe Dancer Round Up!!

It’s time, once again, to take a look at the casting rumors we’ve seen for this upcoming season and rank them according to how likely they are to happen. I was thinking we really didn’t have many rumors for this season, but it turns out there’s more than I thought.  But there are also a lot of people saying they would LOVE to do it, which is not the same thing as a “rumor”.  And I also have NOT included who OTHER people would like to see dance – that’s not even a wannabe. Anyway, here we go….

ETA2: Lots of updates! Read our complete list below…and here’s to the Cast Announcement on Tuesday! Read more..

February 24, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Erin Andrews to Replace Brooke Burke?? DWTS Season 18

Oh lord, no. From “The Big Lead”. Thanks to @DWTSGossip for the heads up on this…I think.

Erin Andrews, the Fox Sports sideline reporter, is going to be the new co-host of ABC’s Dancing with the Stars, two sources tell The Big Lead. The network is expected to make the announcement Monday. An ABC spokesperson didn’t return a call Saturday evening seeking comment.

ABC announced Friday that Brooke Burke, who had been Tom Bergeron’s co-host on DWTS for the last seven seasons, would be leaving the show.

Andrews is not leaving Fox Sports, sources say. She will continue her sports duties – sideline reporting, hosting – for Fox, and co-host Dancing with the Stars on ABC during the week. Michael Strahan of Fox Sports has a similar deal – he co-hosts “Live with Kelly and Michael” during the week for ABC.

Sorry, I haven’t liked Andrews since she was all “mean girl” on DWTS. I don’t see it changing with her as host. But I do sense an opportunity for Courtney and I…. :-)  But still, I’m going to pray that “the Big Lead” is full of crap. Or a spoof site and I missed it. Or drinking too much. Or something. ;-)

ETA: People.com jumps on the Erin rumor bandwagon. As I told someone in the comments, it’s not truly “official” until ABC updates their website or announces it in some other way.

It’s time to welcome a new host to the ballroom.

Erin Andrews will replace Brooke Burke-Charvet as the host of Dancing with the Stars, a source confirms to PEOPLE.

The FOX Sports reporter, 35, will take over as Tom Bergeron’s co-host for season 18 of ABC’s dancing competition. Andrews is no stranger to the series, having competed on season 10 ofDWTS with pro Maksim Chmerkovskiy.

ETA2: This is sweet. KTLA did a tribute to Brooke on their show today…. Read more..

February 22, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 18: No More Brooke Burke??

Well…sorry Brooke. And if any of you pros are asking for too much money…well, I guess there is only so far they will go cuz they ain’t got none.  Seriously, though, this makes me very interested to see what other cuts they will make.  Although, in the new one night format there really wasn’t room for two hosts – and Tom rocks.  From Rumor Fix:

RumorFix has learned exclusively that Brooke Burke Charvet, who has co-hosted the show for seven years with Tom Bergeron, will not be returning this season.

On November 25, 2008, Brooke, herself, and partner  Derek Hough won the competition during Season Seven.

RumorFix has reached out to ABC and Brooke’s reps for comment.

ETA: It’s official. From E! News:

Burke-Charvet exclusively confirms to me that she will not be returning to the ABC show.

“I have enjoyed seven seasons co-hosting DWTS but understand the need for change considering the position of the show at this juncture,” she said in a statement. “I’ve always been one to embrace change and looking forward to pursuing opportunities I previously wasn’t able to entertain because of contractual obligations to the show. I’ve seen my fair share of shocking eliminations in the ballroom but this one takes the cake.”

 

February 21, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)