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Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 5 Score Predictions

Oh thank goodness this is a semi-reasonable week… in a sense of that all the dances this week were good old-fashioned ballroom dances. So how are the couples going to stack up?
DWTS16-Week5Predict
And I say “HA!” with the Sean / Peta ranking… that is just so wrong on so many levels, but what can I do? The other numbers in the spreadsheet are showing nothing for one reason or another… and unless I had forgotten something, ah well.

And as for last week’s scores against the predictions:
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April 15, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 4 Score Predictions

*sighs* And it is another contemporary dance that throws off the predictions this week. Go figure. This time (according to Heidi’s Who is Dancing What and When) it is Aly / Mark with the contemporary routine.

Predictions are slightly different this week as they are the averages of the scores from the previous seasons from the “First Third” and the “Second Third” of previous seasons. “First Third” being the first four weeks of the season and the “Second Third” being the middle four weeks of the season.

DWTS16-Week4Predict

So what about last week? Well…
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April 8, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 3 Score Predictions

You know if it weren’t for that darn Contemporary dance that Victor / Lindsay are dancing I would actually have had I would have proper rankings this time around… but as it stands we are probably going to be stuck with average scores from here on out.

Ah well…

DWTS16-Week3Predict
If I have time after work today I’ll add more to the list… but really, what’s there to say?

Oh… and if you are curious about how the calculated predictions panned out on Week 1 and Week 2…
WEEK 1
DWTS16-Week1Actual

WEEK 2
DWTS16-Week2Actual

April 1, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 2 Score Predictions

I’ll update with thoughts as soon as I finish some things in the office.

So I apologize…

Picture0001

March 25, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 1 Score Predictions

Here you have it folks the first predicted scores of the season… You didn’t think I’d forget did ya? Well I thought I did, since I seem to have forgotten that the start of the season was today! Geez, you’d think I would have this on my calendar somewhere.

Anyway… after looking at the dances that are scheduled for the first week I realized that my typically spreadsheet data is going to be thrown into the dumpster because everything has gone astray! don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself…
DWTS16-Week1Predict
I can’t even rank them! Ugh…

So I don’t know what to do… at least at the moment. I am tempted to just do the score prediction and not even bothering with how they rank because contemporary is such an outlier and out of box concept for ballroom dancers that it just doesn’t seem quite fair.

Grr grr grr…

. . .

Ah well… let’s see how this first week pans out before I really throw in the white towel… I am sure in the coming weeks something will reveal itself so I could provide the best calculations I know for you guys to enjoy.

Maybe I do have to include Season 15 afterall… gosh darn… it.

March 18, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Pre-Season Predictions – Eliminations

Yay I’m back!… Well kind of… ;-) I apologize for the delay but I had this post completed when the initial cast announcements happened and then… life got in the way? Well I don’t really have a good idea or reason for that, but what can I do? And when I was ready to post it was a week off from the “Sean Lowe” announcement and so I just added him to the mix and completely forgot about the post again… Yes shoot me. So now you get two posts from me today… the first would be the following distribution and the second being the actual Predictions for the first week of scores.

Taking the above into account, a part of me was really considering about sitting this season out, I mean I got burned out last season when TPTB really threw a lot of curve balls to my spreadsheets and predictions that it got to the point that I just kind of threw in the towel because of the ridicuolous-ness of it all. And when I heard wind of TPTB putting contemporary and jazz into the mix… well let’s just say that I was not happy at all.

But… it’s a new season, and after the cast announcement I realize that I am familiar with at least half of the cast and as thus I probably should follow along for the ride.

So this is what I’m going to do… There are going to be two tables (since the blog space is not wide enough to do what I REALLY want to do) the first will be the rankings broken down by the following categories:
Professional Partner
Occupation
Age Group

The second table will then reflect how each of the celebrities are grouped in those categories.

Now… I really had to think long and hard about this one… at the moment I decided NOT to add in the scores and data from the All-Star Season (Season 15). Why? Mainly because I consider that data to be skewed in a lot of ways. You have old partnerships, new partnerships, strange dances, all the celebrities knew what they were getting into which changes what could happen through the season… There were just way too many variables than a “normal” season for me to even consider using the data.

However, if the demand to see how the below rankings would change with the inclusion of the All Star Season, I’ll consider it…. time-permitting of course.

CELEBRITY
PROFESSIONAL
OCCUPATION
AGE GROUP
FINAL RANKING
Aly Raisman
3
2
1
1
Jacoby Jones
5
1
3
2
Kellie Pickler
1
6
3
3
Zendaya
12
4
1
4
Ingo Rademacher
4
5
7
5
Dorothy Hamill
6
2
11
6
Sean Lowe
7
9
3
7
Victor Ortiz
9
8
3
8
Wynonna Judd
8
6
7
9
D L Hughley
2
11
7
10
Andy Dick
9
11
7
11
Lisa Vanderpump
11
9
11
12

Any surprises? Confusion? Well… let’s a look at how I am grouping them this season… then I’ll explain a couple of things.
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I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 10 Predictions

So this is the last weekly score predictions of the season that you guys are going to get from me. Why did I wait for the instant dance to post up predictions? Simply because those are the most worthwhile to use data for.

Freestyles are near impossible to predict for because of the sheer number of perfect scores or near perfect scores, it simply just isn’t worth it.

The dance repeat is also a crapshoot because we have already seen the dance and the judges will either do what TPTB are whispering in their ears or they will go off script and be even stranger… who knows.

What I did notice though is that the scores of contestants in the finals tend to give the viewer an idea of how TPTB are trying to even the playing field. By giving Shawn / Derek a far lower score than the other two it is as if they are compensating from the sheer volume of votes they are getting in comparison to Melissa / Tony or Kelly / Val.

But this is speculation and I don’t have the date to prove or disprove anything… yet.

So that leaves the instant dances. Granted they will not be exact and I really wouldn’t be surprised if let’s say Shawn / Derek and Melissa / Tony would get close to perfect scores with Kelly / Val bringing up the rear so that the winner will be just down to popular vote.

But enough speculation, below is the table breakdown of the final three and how their scores appear to pan out for the three possible dances (Samba, Cha-Cha, and Jive).

Enjoy!

November 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 9 Predictions

Oh Em Gee… Week Nine? The Semi-Finals and we have five couples left in the competition? It is interesting to know that in a week it is the finals and then we have to wait til March for the new season of Dancing with the Stars. Not a bad thing mind you but… anyway.

Since I am at a time crunch I am going to just provide the data, some tidbits that I know and let you guys draw your own conclusions:

Below is the table of the predicted scores. As to be expected we don’t really have all that information for the “chosen” dances but for my sanity let’s just focus on the dances that we do know of…


If the predictions are to be believed (and the score from approximately the same time frame in the original seasons) then the top three couples would include Shawn/Derek, Apolo/Karina and Melissa/Tony which would be just fine by me (and probably most other people).

So let’s look at how the scores worked out last week:
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November 19, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 ā€“ Week 8 Predictions

Yay the Trio Challenge **rolls eyes**. ANYWAY As always take the below table with a grain of salt:


Now for the eighth week of competition in Season 8: Melissa originally received a 21 because she was injured that week and as thus her score was based off of the dance rehearsal footage taken earlier that day (or weekend).

I find it rather interesting that Emmitt is the only one that has not done either one of the dances that he is assigned this week in his original season.

Kelly Monaco did the Viennese Waltz as a group dance in her season but it was not scored.

Now… throughout the week last week people were asking what the cumulative scores were up to that point… so I decided to provide the following table for your information only:
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November 12, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 ā€“ Week 7 Predictions

GAH! I am so confused with this season… >.<

So a few words of warning... since I am using scores from the season prior to that of Season 15, those fusion dances that include the tango (Melissa/Tony and Shawn/Derek or Mark) where the celebrity did not dance the tango in their original season I substitute for the Argentine Tango... just so I don't have a lot of blank scores all over the place.

Since at last rumor in accordance to Heidi’s Who is Dancing What When… Mark appears to be dancing with Shawn Johnson I created the following table to reflect that:

But let’s compare that table to the rare possibility that Derek would be able to dance with Shawn this week:

Anyone noticed that? I think it is pretty clear that with Derek, Shawn would have a slightly higher chance of being towards the top of the leaderboard than with Mark (provided that no storyboarding is going on). Then again…

Yes I know that Kirstie has done the quickstep below… however aside from Season 15, has anyone in their 60s completed the quickstep in the latter part of the season? From what I have been able to see I do not believe so… but I am only human.

And of course since this is the first time that Valentin Chmerkovskiy has made it past Week Four so any pro data is out the window for him. **Sighs** Season 15 the bombs to my spreadsheets… :)

November 5, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)