Oh Em Gee… what a wacky few weeks… Ugh Ugh Ugh. Anyway… with no real results show for Week 7… Might as well put this up for good measure:
Ok… I am not happy… I mean Sabrina was actually growing and doing better and better. She was actually opening up and she has such an engaging personality it is like, “what the hell?” But then again TPTB probably have so much invested in Gilles and Kelly that Sabrina got the short end of the stick…
Ah well… what can you do? I know it has been a while since I did one of these… but in all honesty it is getting towards that point in the season where the comparison statistics may actually look decent. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the chart where it compares the predicted scores with the actuals between Sabrina’s original Season 5 and the current Season 15:
Confused? Yeah I was too… but before I break the above down even further… let’s look at the data between Season 5 and Season 15:
There… now that you have the data let’s go back to the charts:
Week 5 no eliminations… while as with Week 6 we were suppose to have a double elimination but it would appear that TPTB have scraped that idea and we will see a single elimination this week.
That being said… thanks to Heidi for posting up the “Who is Dancing What” post for the week… what does the data say about how the couples will be scored this week? Better yet, will there be any change / shake up in the standings from last week to this week?
Before going on let’s look at how the scores could stack up if Week 6 did NOT have Week 5 added on to it.
– Since we are in Week 6, the calculations above is strictly based off of scores from Weeks 4 through 7 in a traditional 10-week season. Just to keep the scoring semi-reasonable.
– Although Apolo Anton Ohno has a score from his original season for the Viennese Waltz… in actuality he has done the Waltz in his season and did not dance to the Viennese Waltz.
– Does anyone else find it odd that Derek – until this season – has never done a Cha-Cha between Weeks 4 through 7?
Now let’s look at how the scoring went down in Week 5 (including the Team Dances).
After taking a week off (I actually flew out to New York two weekends ago) and as thus wasn’t able to rework my spreadsheet in time for the predictions of Week 4. But I am back and raring to go with Week 5 predictions.
So without further ado… here are the predictions that you were missing last week (with thanks from Heidi for putting together who is dancing what):
Consequently those celebrities in their 60s have done a Quickstep but again only in the first two weeks of their season… so to stick with some sort of accuracy I chose not to include those scores.
However, with those missing scores it seems rather odd for Kirstie to be placed so high (though it could be possible) while Melissa is placed so low… Again as proven in past prediction posts… they tend to be a crap shoot… so take the above with a grain of salt.
In the meantime let’s look at how the scores went at the end of the day for Week 3 and (from what is available in Week 4).
Ok… just to get this out of the way… predictions are shot for Week 4. Since there are only four dances that have been on the show before (Charleston, Mambo, Jitterbug and Bolero) while the rest have either been a group dance (Rock N Roll, Disco) or were featured in the Results show by other dance groups (Bollywood, Contemporary, Hip Hop, Broadway)… there is no way I can truly predict scores… but I sure as hell will try. 🙂 Who could have predicted what the dance pool was going to include? I thought it would re-introduce dances that just didn’t have some exposure on the show as I posted last week.
So how will the scores stack up with the data that I have available?
What I did find to be interesting is that for those that were given the traditional dances that overlapped with my dance pool… I had actually suggested them to have:
Emmitt Smith: suggested either Bolero, West Coast Swing or Two Step
Shawn Johnson: suggested either the Mambo or Two Step
Before I move on… Warning: extra long, YouTube video link heavy post to follow. Also Lori added additional commentary wherever she is able in regards to Week 4’s dances / couples. Also there is a little bit of a conversation going on in the comments in the DWTS Season 15 Stats Class Week 4’s Challenge. Read more..
Since a lot of people have been asking for it… and I have been crazy busy the past few weeks… I haven’t had the chance to sit down and figure out the music for the results shows… but here they are!
“Iconic Dance Numbers”
Kendra / Louis – Ricky Martin: Livin’ La Vida Loca
Ricki / Derek – Beyonce: Sweet Dreams [the version that Beyonce does has more of a beat… but it is definitely the same song]
Julianne / Helio – Royal Crown Revue: Hey Pachuco
Since this post would be moot point come the Results show tonight I figured I would help give an idea of various dances and what not that are available from throughout the seasons:
Looking at the above breakdown there are eight dances that had minimal exposure throughout the series, but do I define “seldom used dances”? Well they are those dances that we have only seen once in a small handful of seasons. When looking at the number counts there are eight dances that were danced less than 25 times… actually the most from this group would be 11. Here are those dances and when they were featured:
Season 7 Week 5
Hustle, Jitterbug and West Coast Swing
Season 8 Week 4
Season 9 Week 4
Bolero, Charleston, Lambada and Two-Step
So now let’s look at how the dances scores were averaged and compared to one another:
Let us also look at the dances that are not in the Top Ten highest scoring dances and see where all the other dances lie:
Those dances highlighted in “yellow” are those that not only have had minimal exposure on the show, but also scored rather low in the grand scheme of things. Those dances that are highlighted in “pink” are those that have had some exposure on the show but still scored low. If anything… if I was helping produce the show I would probably use the above dances (and maybe include other dances that have had minimal exposure on the show like the Charleston, Jitterbug, Lambada, and Hustle) as the pool of dances to be used for the upcoming week.
Looking through all the dances that have been featured on the show and have had some exposure I realized some interesting things. There were several dances that were introduced into the show in the midway point of the series and have been staples ever since (Argentine Tango, Viennese Waltz), while there were other dances that were “taking a break” as it were but then have been staples since them (Salsa, Tango, Waltz).
The Mambo was only featured for a handful of seasons in the middle of the series: Seasons 3 thru 7.
So knowing all this… which dances did I pull the below preferences from? Well the easiest would be the following: Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step and West Coast Swing. These four dances not only got the least amount of exposure on the show but also had average low scores during their short run on the series.
The Mambo has been on the show for only five seasons and was scored low frequently so I would toss that dance into the mix.
Finally what about the other four? Aka the Charleston, Hustle, Jitterbug, and Lambada? It is hard to say since they ranked high on the scoring table. I tended to shy away from these dances in my quick analysis below, but feel free to include these in your comments if you feel inclined that you’d like to see a particular celebrity dance these dances.
So my final pool would be from Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step, West Coast Swing and Mambo.
But before we start figuring out what dances would provide a challenge to each of the dancers… let’s look at who has already attempted any of the above dances?
So in regards to dances: Shawn, Melissa and Gilles all have a little bit of an edge by having done the Lindy Hop in their original season, but the Lindy Hop had an average score that is in the higher half. Personally, if I were to choose dances that I would like to see next week they would include the Bolero, West Coast Swing and Lindy Hop.
So knowing the above… what dances could possibly challenge the individual dancers? (Warning very long post to follow)
This is going to be an off week on so many levels… I can just sense it. So I am going to apologize for the tardiness of last week and this week’s votes… Looking at the calculations and predictions this week (as always many thanks to Heidi for finding out Who is Dancing What:
I am actually surprised that Tony Dovolani has not done a Samba this early in the competition. That can’t be right. Well I looked at the past seasons and the earliest that Tony has done a Samba was in Week 5… which for the purposes of the predicted calculations would not be used as Week 5 is considered to be the middle of the seasons and not early.
To be honest I am surprised that Drew Lachey is ranked so low while Bristol Palin *shudders* is placed high. I guess we are going to have to see.
Taking a look at last week’s scores and comparing them with the original predictions:
As you can see the numbers when you compare the predictions to the actual are all over the place. Thus another reason why one cannot use past data for such a subjective sport. However, when one would look at the original scores (when averaged up) what I found to be interesting is that for the most part the rankings of the original scores were similar to the overall rankings of the actual scores. Sure there were a few anomalies here and there (Drew Lachey being the major one), but at least there is some consistency going on.
Like I said before, I apologize for the delay in the posts from last week and this week… and I hope to be more up to date after this week… so bare with me in the meantime.
If I were going to guess at who would most likely be going home based on what I know thus far… with Helio and Drew having already been at the Bottom Two, and this week being a double elimination… It is hard to say. However considering that both Drew and Helio are predicted to be the in the bottom three lowest scoring couples (with Kirstie) my best bet would be on one of them. Helio is most likely to go due to his predicted early eliminiation. Kirstie and Drew are also possibilities at this point based entirely on predictions, even though I would honestly love to see Bristol go too.
So I would bet on Helio going with a toss up between Drew and Kirstie… and Bristol as a wish list elimination.
As always many thanks to Heidi for this weeks’ Who is Dancing What and When post.
From Heidi’s post here is how the couples will stack up in accordance to past data:
Much like last week, half of the celebrities have danced the same dance in the same week… it will be interesting to see how the scores compare to tonight’s scores on those cases.
The first eliminated couple of the season: Pamela Anderson and Tristan MacManus
But really was this a surprise? Taking a look at some of the past data and Back in June, we asked you the reader to choose your favorite celebrities across the seasons and I had recently posted the results of the popularity polls of celebrities taken from your favorites. On this list it did not appear that Pamela was in the Top 20 of the female celebrities… so already just from those summer polls alone there were signs that Pamela probably wouldn’t have the popularity vote by her side.
She was given the lowest score of the night on Monday… and even my elimination predictions have her not just towards the bottom of the list… but in last place as well. The Week 1 Score Predictions had her scored second the last ranking just above Kelly Monaco and Valentin Chmerkovskiy (who scored far higher on Monday night).
So yeah, she didn’t really have a lot going for her here no matter how you look at it.
So enough with what happened during Week 1… let’s look back with her time prior to Season 15. How did she fare and did she even stand a chance? Well hard to say. So what I did was go back in time and looked at her actual scores during her time on Season 10 and compared it with how her score predictions would have looked prior to Season 10. Then for the hell of it I also added the scores predicted for Season 15 using the same dances from Season 10… and let’s say the results were fascinating…
First the table:
Looking at the numbers alone she was all over the spectrum. There were some dances she scored higher than… while others she scores below… and still others right on par. But if we were to take the average score from the predicted scores of Season 10 vs the actual scores…
Season 10 Average Prediction: 21.708
Season 10 Average Actual: 22.286
Almost a whole half-point difference. Which sometimes doesn’t seem like a lot, but in the world of stats and mathematics is a hell of a whole lot.
So how does this look like on a graph?
Her actual scores from Season 10 appear to be all over the spectrum when compared to the Season 10 predicted scores… while when compared with the Season 15 predictions are a little more in line…
Now I wouldn’t go so far as to say whether she was over or under scores in any capacity mainly because I have to rewatch the episodes to know that… but I am kind of curious to see how the other celebrities stack up in hindsight when comparing their actual scores with the various predictions.