Marianya | Pure Dancing with the Stars

DWTS Season 15 All Star Season – Rumor: Mario Lopez

As per norm, we won’t know who is going to be cast for Season 15 until late summer / early fall, but with rumors or ideas or speculation running rampant I figured it would be fun to see how they would fare based on the data from the past fourteen seasons.

So what will these graphs show? Well a few things really… I will provide a graph of the celebrity and compare it with the averages of the dances up to that particular season. Then I will provide a second graph that would compare the scores that each celebrity received with the overall average up to the end of Season 14.

Since Mario Lopez came onto the show in Season 3 there isn’t a lot of data to work with, so there are bound to be empty spots. Some of the other celebrities I will also compare and create graphs for would include some of the mentioned from the post that Vogue put up a bit ago.

First let’s look at how he fared for Season 3:

If you notice there are a few blank spots in the prediction line graph. This is mainly because there simply isn’t enough data for that particular dance during that particular time period of the season. So let’s take a look at how he would fare with all the data up to the end of Season 14:

In the first half of the season he would appear to be thrown around for a loop in the scoring department. The judges may praise him for incredibly dance ability, then toss him for a couple of weeks of a reality check before giving him high praise for improvement. Then finally in the second half of the season allow him to have his steady incline of scores.

Now, if you remember back in Season 3, Mario Lopez was more known for his time on Saved By the Bell, so for his “occupation” I placed him as an actor. However as time went on he carved out another career path for himself as host and entertainment news correspondent so the Season 15 chart has his occupation more as a host instead.

It would be interesting to see what he scores would be should he decide to do the show again in Season 15… but we naturally would not know that until sometime in August… so until then onward to Mel B of the Spice Girls.

DWTS Season 15 – All Star Cast Wish List

So what I’m going to do is start with a series of polls: namely you get to choose who YOU want to see from every season of Dancing with the Stars from Season 1 all the way to Season 14. The polls will be up for a few days… and once the polls are closed I will personally draw up how the top celebrities did in their season in comparison to the averaged data from all the seasons.

At the end of all the chosen celebrities I will create a mock elimination post and hopefully by then we’ll know who would REALLY be cast and I will do attempt to do the same for the casted celebrities – hopefully – before the show starts in September again.

Excited? Well you better be… soon you’ll have an example in the form of Mario Lopez and later of Mel B since they are the only two that we know of that has been approached for the All-Star season. If they end up being top in the poll of their respective seasons, wonderful! If not, well then those are freebie posts for you 😉

Ready? GO!
Read more..

DWTS Season 15 – The All-Star Season

Season 14 has concluded for Dancing with the Stars and TPTB have spent at least half of the season if not the past year fanning flames for Season 15. In the now-official announcement of an “All Star Cast” being on the horizon. For those that are confused, Vogue posted a video a while back of Mario Lopez joining Kelly Ripa on her show “Live! with Kelly” and mentioned that he was approached to be a part of the cast of Season 15.

But before I go any further let’s go back a few years. Back in late 2009, John posted a “All I Want for Christmas” DWTS wish list, who would have thought that some of the items would have come true:
1. Replace Samantha – TPTB DID replace Samantha with Season 7’s winner: Brooke Burke. In some ways that was an improvement, and in other ways… it still felt the same. Ah well
2. No Live Band – No such luck. *pouts*
3. More Behind the Scenes – I think there is quite a bit behind the scenes footage now… moreso than I remember there being before.
4. How about a themed DWTS? All sports people or all singers or all tv personalities. – Unfortunately when John first mentioned a “themed DWTS” he meant all the celebs be from a particular group versus themed nights… can’t have everything.
5. Dancing with the Stars All Stars – More on this later
6. More Pro Dances – This is also hard to see if it has happened or not.
7. DWTS Tour – Well we got a Vegas Live show now… that’s better than nothing.
8. Edyta For the Win – Unfortunately Edyta left after Season 10. So unless they bring her back for the All Star Season and make it so she wins… I don’t see this happening.
9. Fewer Contestants – Ever since Season 9 (which had a whooping 16 couples), TPTB had only 11 or 12 couples per season.
10. A DWTS Professionals Special – We’ve had a few specials that showed some of the best routines from previous seasons, be it celeb/pro dances or pro dances or pro group dance numbers. I say this was a win.

Of the above Top Ten wish list, I wouldn’t be surprised if TPTB actually went through the list and looked to see what was doable. Now the big one: Since 2009 PureDWTS have mentioned a desire for an “All Star Season” and how cool it would be to bring old favorites from previous seasons and watch them compete for their chance at the mirror ball trophy. In fact Cheryl Burke once tweeted that a possible “All Star Season” was in the works two seasons from when she first mentioned it. Looking at the date of the post… the “two seasons” lead into Season 15, then add to that Mario Lopez’s comment of being asked to be a part of the All-Star line up. Well… let’s just say that at the date that this post was original written (April 27th) we now know that this is a definitive possibility.

So where does that bring us? Well, I got curious, since I (Marianya) predict scores for the show… having an All-Star season would totally bust my predictions and calculations, because these would all be celebrities that now have some sort of prior dance experience coming in. Another factor is how many of them would actually remember want was taught to them the first time they were on the show? To me it doesn’t seem to be very many, but I could be dead wrong. One thing’s first certain, the expectations would be higher and the scores would be crazy!

Then there are the celebrities that are participating in the DWTS Live Show at the Tropicana, namely: Carson Kressley, Joey Fatone, Kyle Massey, Sabrina Bryan and Tia Carrere. Would they be counted out since they are already participating in another DWTS related show?

Taking what Tom has already mentioned on the show, he said that the contestants would include:
– Past Mirrorball Winners
– Fan Favorites
– Controversial Characters

Umm… I don’t necessarily mind the “controversial character” because I do see the draw of that to the show, but I have an issue with past Mirrorball winners. I mean, I would much prefer that everyone in the cast not have won before so it would give the celebrities a second chance to win. People don’t necessarily have to agree with me, but dammit I don’t think it would be fair for the celebrities in particular if there were past winners in the All-Star cast. In fact, I would much rather have a separate season (perhaps for Season 20?) where all of the previous Mirrorball winners would compete to see who is the best of the best… but that’s just me.

And then there is the question of: What constitutes a “fan favorite”? Do they have polls, numbers, know who averaged the most number of call ins? And on top of all that: Will they be nice and take one celebrity to represent every season of DWTS thus far, but wouldn’t that give those of Season 14 an unfair advantage? The questions are endless.

Still, this will undoubtedly bring a lot of the fans that have tuned off the show back on if they have the right mix of celebrities. I’ve talked to a number of my friends that were fans of the show but haven’t really had any huge desire to watch the show in recent months, so perhaps bringing in an All-Star season is exactly what is needed to bring a jolt into the series.

Next up… I’ll have posts analyzing the scoring progressions of two of the stars that were rumored to be approached for the All-Star Season: Mel B and Mario Lopez as well as adjustments to the upcoming season.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 Scorecard

Whelp… the last scorecard for Season 14… I’m going to skip to the niceties and just go straight to the table of score differentiation:

Am I the only one that is mildly entertained that William has the largest point difference between his predicted scores and actual scores… with Katherine a point beneath that. While in the meantime, Donald is actually a lot closer being just one point off from the past? When you add the scores from Tuesday night’s show into the table Donald has the smallest point difference of the final three…

So let’s look at William’s scoring progression:

Although there are times over the season that William appears to score similar to what was originally predicted or even below, for the most part he has scored a few points over the predicted score. So let’s look at everyone else.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 – The 24-Hour Challenge

Now that we know what the final three couples are going to dance for the 24-hour Challenge, let’s see how they will fare:

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 26.250
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Donald and Peta chose their lowest scoring dance for their 24-hour challenge, the first time they did a Cha-Cha was back in Week 1, it was a 21. With so much room for improvement I have no doubt that Donald would shine, but how much? Let’s look at how previous NFL players in their 30s have done this late in the season.
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith received a 30 in Week 9
– Season 6’s Jason Taylor received a 24 for Week 10
– Season 11’s Kurt Warner received a 24 and Week 8
For the most part NFL players are oozing with charisma, regardless on the scores that they received. Donald could do better, scoring wise… I’m hoping he’ll get another perfect score.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 10: The Finals!

Here we go, the last week of the season. Week 10. The following are the dances that the couples are slated to do over the course of Monday/Tuesday:
– Judges Choice: the judges get choose a dance that they would like to the couples to conquer again and the couples will perform it to new music and new choreography
– Freestyle: The anything goes dance… do I really need to describe this to you guys?
– 24-hour Challenge: The couples are allowed to pick a dance but are not given the music until 24-hours before Tuesday night’s show (something similar to the dance off where couples are working on routines/dances the night before Tuesday night’s show)

One thing I want to gripe about is why not have the couple do a dance that they have yet to do? For example Donald has set to do the Salsa, while William is missing a Waltz and Katherine the Tango… I think it would be fairer to give them all new dances… but that’s just me. Ah well. In any case:

DISCLAIMER: At the time of this writing, according to Wikipedia Katherine and Mark are doing the Rumba for their “judges choice” dance, so if there are any changes I may not be able to get to them prior to the show time… and I apologize.

UPDATE: I have updated the Predicted Scores with Katherine’s dance the Paso Doble

WILLIAM LEVY
Dance 1: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 24.500
– Professional Partner: 27.000
Predicted Score: 26

Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.000
– Professional Partner: 28.600
Predicted Score: 28

Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Getting a dance that he did earlier in the season bodes well for William, since he did a Cha-Cha in Week 1 there is a very good chance that he could show off just how much he has improved since then. The other two actors in their 30s that did the Cha-Cha this late in the season:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez got a 29
– Season 13’s David Arquette got a 24
Personally William is a stronger dancer than David, but not the same caliber as Mario… so getting a 29 would be difficult for me to fathom unless he knocks it out of the park. As for the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez received a 30
– Season 8’s Gilles Marini received a 28
Ironically, both ended up being runners up in their respective seasons… William could end up being a runner up in the current season, but it is hard to tell at this juncture.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 9 Scorecard

Semi-finals week… aka Week 9, by now you should know who is going home… but before we begin let’s look at the scoring breakdown from Monday night’s show.

Yeeeeaaaah, so looking at the actual to predicted scores, Katherine/Mark has the smallest point difference. Whileas with the other three couples, there is a point difference of either 4 or 5 with the largest point difference being Maria/Derek with 5 points.

Looking at this upfront, it would appear that Katherine would be going home, since she is closest to the predicted score, but as we have seen in some of the previous weeks, the couple with the largest point difference could also be going home…

Let’s look at Maria’s scoring progression over the past nine weeks:

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 9

Week 9! The Semi-finals. Each couple will be dancing the two dances that they have yet to learn this season. So let’s see where they could be placed

DONALD DRIVER
Dance 1: Waltz
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.333
– Occupation: 25.800
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 27

Dance 2: Samba
Average Scores:
– Age: 26.700
– Occupation: 26.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 26

Predicted Rank: 4th
Comments: Some NFL players have done rather well in the Waltz this late in the season
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith: 28 in Week 7
– Season 10’s Chad Ochocinco: 27 in Week 9
– Season 11’s Kurt Warner: 24 in Week 8
So seeing a predicted score of 17 for Donald isn’t all that far fetched to me. On the other hand there is more of a point difference when it comes to the Samba:
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith: 30 in Week 10
– Season 6’s Jason Taylor: 23 in Week 8
– Season 7’s Warren Sapp: 25 in Week 10
– Season 10’s Chad Ochocinco: 25 in Week 9
– Season 12’s Hines Ward: 30 in Week 10
Again the predicted score for the Samba seems to be rather close as well… As for his placement? I dear hope not.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 8 Scorecard

Since Week 8 is a double elimination week, I felt that it would probably benefit everyone if I went ahead and did a scorecard for this week and probably will continue to do so for the last two weeks of the season thereafter.

So to start, let’s look at how the actual scores on the show compared with those that were predicted:

Before we start, the very last column is just the summation of the differences between the two dances that each couple has to dance.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 8

The home stretch! Heading into the Last Third of the season. You know what that means? It means that every couple is going to be dancing two dances for the next two weeks… each! This ought to be fun.

So what I am going to do is that below each celebrity I am going to put the predicted scores breakdown for the first dance and do the same for the second dance. Then I will put in the predicted rank as well as my personal comments on each celebrity. Hopefully I’ll be able to keep them all straight in my head 🙂

MELISSA GILBERT
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.000
– Occupation: 25.500
– Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score: 25

Dance 2: Samba
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.571
– Occupation: 24.500
– Professional Partner: 26.400
– “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 25

Predicted Rank: 6th
Comments: Since we do not know for sure that Melissa would perform the Waltz for her Ballroom dance… but just for the sake of it the only other Actress in their 40s to have done the Waltz was Season 10’s Pamela Anderson on Week 7, but she received a 24. Now that we know that the Foxtrot is what Melissa is dancing for her Ballroom dance, the scores have changed a little bit, as well as her placing… unfortunately. Also unfortunate is that no other actress in their 40s have done the Foxtrot this late in the season. The closest being that Season 5’s Jennie Garth and Season 6’s Marissa Jaret Winokur (who were both Actresses in their 30s) received a 26 and 25 respectively. On the other hand there is no other celebrity in the exact same categories as Melissa that has done a Samba this late in the season. Melissa has been gaining steam slowly and surely… but there is no telling if that upward trend would continue after the scores last week.

ROSHON FEGAN
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
– Age: 25.000
– Occupation: 25.500
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 25

Dance 2: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.778
– Occupation: 25.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
– “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 26

Predicted Rank: 5th
Comments: Unfortunately there were no Disney related celebrities that have done the Foxtrot in the last four weeks of the season. On the other hand Season 3’s Monique Coleman and Season 12’s Chelsea Kane both did the Paso Doble in their Week 7 and received a 27 and 26 respectively. Roshon has been getting inconsistent scores and even though I could see him receiving a 25/26 for his dances, whether he actually would is another story altogether.

DWTS Season 15 All Star Season – Rumor: Mario Lopez

DWTS Season 15 – All Star Cast Wish List

DWTS Season 15 – The All-Star Season

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 Scorecard

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 – The 24-Hour Challenge

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 10: The Finals!

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 9 Scorecard

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 9

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 8 Scorecard

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 8

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