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DWTS Season 21, Week SEVEN – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, sh*t’s about to get REAL. And figuring out who’s going home this week is not easy, between the close scores and the stoopid immunity stuff.

Speaking of immunity, watch out for Bindi and Nick. If one of them gets a 28 or 29 and they dance early in the show, someone else is most likely getting immunity. It’ll likely be REAL fishy and I’d almost put money on it happening – I’m thinking either Tamar or Alexa.   I also expect the producers to try real hard to get Carlos vs. Alexa and Derek vs. Val. Yes, I used the pro names for a REASON. Derek don’t play, but Val makes it very easy for them.

I *think* from the press release the immunity is for Week 9, but it’s so poorly written that I can’t be sure.  Of course, the natural question is – what if the person winning immunity is the person who has already been determined to have the lowest combined score and who should be going home Monday night?  Well, that’s a question I don’t know the answer to and I’m afraid it will only piss me off. 🙂  After Monday is over, if that is a possibility, I’ll do a follow up to this post.  Read more..

October 30, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week SIX – Dancing by the Numbers

This week we have a pretty clear division between two groups of dancers and I’m not really sure why. It’s weird. I re-watch the dances and I agree that those three (Alexa, Alek and Hayes) had the weakest dances of the night, but I’m not convinced that the difference between some at the top and those at the bottom is that broad.  I don’t think any of the dances were “perfect” although I think Nick and Bindi were perfect *all things considered*.  Tamar, on re-watching, was not a perfect 40 either. Meanwhile, I think that Alexa and Alek should be tied with Hayes.  Of course, not giving Tamar a 40 and NOT giving Alexa and Alek 7s would have put them in much better striking distance at Tamar. Makes you wonder.

Then again – why give Andy a 40? He definitely deserved a high score…but that high? I loved that routine, for sure…but after giving him such a hard time in previous weeks, this just seems like a turnaround. I dunno, I’m kinda confused.  Anyway, here’s the leaderboard and the percentages.

Week 6 table 1

I’m not a Nick fan by any stretch, but I don’t get why Andy gets a 10 from CAI and Nick doesn’t – that’s weird, unless they’re setting up a redemption arch for Nick to help him to the MBT. But one point doesn’t really make a redemption arch, does it. Read more..

October 21, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week FIVE – Dancing by the Numbers

I saw some concern this week on the blog about Alek and I want to reiterate right away – I’m not worried about Alek. At all. If he were to go home this week it would be the most shocked I’ve ever been in the history of doing the numbers for this show. Don’t know if that helps anyone or not, but there you have it. He may not be the best dancer, but he has a ton of stuff going for him. These things should be obvious, but let me spell it out for you:

  • He’s a hero in the military in the mold of JR and Noah – who finished 1st and 3rd, respectively.
  • He’s had a run of crap luck (UCC and Spencer) and people love to support someone like that, who has held up well in spite of said crap.
  • The SHOWMANCE. Come on. You watched Meryl and Maks, right? You don’t think it was just dancing that got them the title do you? It was the fauxmance. Alek has it even better because this showmance is a realmance. 🙂 They ain’t playing, like Meryl and Maks clearly were.

I could probably think of more stuff, but that more than sums it up, doesn’t it?  Read more..

October 15, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week FOUR – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, another interesting week on DWTS. Really, I don’t have too many complaints beside CAI’s shocking blindness to the lifts that were happening. She really does seem to only see them when Derek does them, and not when other pros let them happen.  But, this shouldn’t surprise me – I was talking tonight over margaritas about what the producers might do to prevent Bindi winning. My friends think Bindi is a sure thing – but they aren’t online and don’t really pay close attention to the show. I think Bindi has to overcome the “everyone gets a trophy” cabal, and that’s no small thing.

I do think it’s going to come down to Bindi, Alek and Nick. I think Hayes and Tamar are going to fight for fourth place and I gotta say – I’m leaning toward Hayes right now. My friends who aren’t online are extremely impressed with him and not at all impressed with Nick. They also love Alek. It’s very interesting to talk to those who aren’t online (and therefore aren’t contaminated by the BS). They may actually be a bit better at calling the show than I am – but they also show me that the general audience is VERY susceptible to the producer’s subtle manipulations. Actually, after talking to them, I wonder if Nick might get edged out of the Top 3 by either Hayes or Tamar.

Well, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Nick IS a Backstreet Boy, after all.  🙂 Read more..

October 11, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week THREE – Dancing by the Numbers

Maybe one of these days I’ll get my numbers done some time during the week. 🙂  Is anyone even HERE on a Saturday besides me? It’s cold and wet outside, and I’ve been away for weeks, so I’m enjoying myself. ETA: Being away made me miss that supposedly this weeks elimination will be the result of Week 2/Night 2 scores and votes combined with Week 3 scores and votes. The result of me adding in Week 2/Night 2 are rather interesting. Scroll to the bottom if you’ve already read the first installment.

I was working on the assumption that Gary would be the next to go, despite how entertaining he is, because he’s not a great dancer and he’s crazy and he’s been “in jeopardy” a couple times. As a refresher, remember that sometimes being in jeopardy is a warning sign and sometimes it’s meaningless…and sometimes they want the person in jeopardy to get some votes (see: Andy).  We don’t usually know until the end of the season how they’re using it.  Anyway, I was working on the assumption that it was Gary, but then I looked at the scores. Now I’m not so sure. At all. Read more..

October 3, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week 2 Night TWO – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, one of the problems of watching the show while on Vacation is that I don’t have good recall of the show this past week, nor do I have a way (at the moment) to rewatch it. I probably could pull it up on “On Demand” but, well, I’m somewhat lacking in time. I will be able to watch and live blog tomorrow which will make the next numbers post easier.  🙂

My impressions that I do remember is that neither Alexa nor Carlos is really doing it for me at the moment. I don’t have a good reason why nor any idea why this is the case. It just is. It could change for sure. I hope it does. I would like to see Mark win again.

Another impression was that Tamar actually had a good dance that I liked. We’ll see if Val can keep it up. I don’t have the high hopes for him that I once did, nor do I find him particularly inspired when it comes to choreo – but he does (yet again) have a good dancer. And one that I might actually end up *liking*. Read more..

September 27, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week 2 Night ONE – Dancing by the Numbers

Yep, still on Vacay, but I do manage to find a spare hour here and there to jot down a few notes and numbers.

Not really surprised to see Chaka go last night. I think I said quite some time ago that either Chaka or Kim would be the first out. Thought it would be Kim, since her dance was so bad…but Chaka had Keo and that guy can’t seem to get it together. Ah well. Both Chaka and Kim improved a lot last night, but I don’t know if it will be enough to save Kim. Here’s how the leader board stacked up. Read more..

September 22, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

As you know, I’m technically vaycay, but I thought I would step in and do the numbers for week 1…quickly. You may be on your own for week 2. We’ll see.

All in all, a great week. No clear cut winner…not even sure that Nick totally has it in the bag anymore. Jury is out. But we’re a long way from the finale. 🙂 My top dancers are Bindi, Nick, Carlos, Alexa. Loved Alek, but I’ll be shocked if he pulls out another good dance. Loved Victor – so cute. Actually, there was no one I didn’t like except Kim…and that was one bad dance. I don’t see how she pulls it out this week, frankly. Here are the scores and their percentages:

table 1

It should be clear that nearly everyone is safe on Monday night. Kim, Chaka, Victor, Paula and Gary are all down there at the bottom and at least 32k votes away from Hayes and Andy – and neither them should be in danger based on that buffer zone. As you can see below.

table 2

I personally would be shocked if either Paula or Gary go home, just based on personality. I also think (hope??) that Victor will be safe. I think it’s going to come down to Kim and Chaka. What it boils down to is this:
– Kim needs 4,000 more votes per million votes cast than Chaka, OR;
– Kim needs 12,000 more votes per million votes cast that ONE OF Gary, Paula or Victor.

Do you think she can do it? I sure don’t. I think Kim goes. If not Kim, well, Chaka needs:
– Chaka needs 8,000 more votes per million votes cast to beat either Gary, Paula or Victor.

She might beat Victor, but I don’t think Kim beats Victor OR Chaka…therefore, I think Kim goes home.

How’s that for not belaboring the point? 🙂 Don’t worry, I’ll get way more long winded once vacation is over. 🙂

September 19, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, there’s not much to discuss tonight, actually. Riker and Rumer are currently tied for first place, with Noah 8 points back. I full expect that Noah’s deficit will get larger after their dance tomorrow night which brings it down to Riker and Rumer. The scores??

Finale Table 1

When all is said and done, for Noah to win, he needs to get about 35,000 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Riker and Rumer. Now, bigger deficits have been over come in the past, but never in the finale. I don’t think Noah makes it. Now, it’s possible he could take second place instead of third, for sure. But I don’t see him winning, as much as I would love that to happen.

That leaves us with Riker and Rumer. The margin is ONE vote. Will Riker pull it off? Well, he should. Seriously, how non-creative and unimaginative could Val get by simply doing a good Argentine Tango? For that reason alone he should lose. Like Riker’s freestyle or not, it was a risk, it was different, it was a FREESTYLE.

The problem that Riker has is that his fans seemed to be (like many younger fanbases) consumed with twitter and winning the encore dance. HUGE mistake, as I tried to tell them. Has anyone won the encore freestyle AND won the trophy?? I think Kellie might be the only one. The PLUS that Riker has is that Derek fans seemed to be pretty solidly behind him. That said – how likely are you to power vote for someone who isn’t your first choice? Not that likely. I’m sure he got lots of votes from them, but it’s unlikely to be Derek’s fanbase at full strength, especially since they’ve had a week to cool down.

Rumer? I really like this girl a lot, but her pro let her down. That as a freestyle was a total creative cop out and that’s a real shame. He played it very, very safe and I can’t believe none of the judges called him on it. Rumer’s plus said is that she’s been pimped to high heaven and a large percentage of the voting audience could be called sheeple. Add in all the bought and paid for media since the beginning of the show and Riker has an uphill battle.

At the end of the day, I can’t even make a prediction. It’s too close to call. I change my mind every five minutes.

What to look for….well, Riker winning the encore would be a bad sign, historically. Riker getting hosed on the third dance is an interesting sign. It could mean he had the votes. But the judges tend to score that dance after the voting on a level playing field. I don’t think, historically, that they want to change the outcome with their scores. Let’s just see if they still do. What has Rob Wade dictated they do?

I’m interested in seeing who wins. If Riker wins, it will be a hard fought battle by a good dancer with an uphill fight. If Rumer wins, it will be a highly pimped win by a great dancer with the worst choreography from a winner probably in the history of the show. Or at least the last 10 seasons or so, considering that the choreography game has been upped every season.

Until now.

May 19, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, there’s only one thing I’m reasonably certain of – Noah will make the finale. He might even win the whole damn thing and I wouldn’t be upset by that. Sharna (and CAI) did some amazing work last night. Just amazing.

As for the rest? Nastia had, by far, the strongest night of the remaining three – not that that means anything with this show. She’s handicapped by Derek…but possibly helped by his injury and that absolutely beautiful, tear jerking V. Waltz with Derek and Len. I cried. A lot. Something about a man Len’s age confessing he can no longer do what he loves. :::sob:::

Riker came in a very close second to Nastia for me. His first dance was absolutely fantastic – just amazing. The judge’s choice was really not that good. Too much Julianne…who couldn’t devote enough time to it to do it justice. Which is a shame, really, because Riker is a good, entertaining dancer.

Rumer had two good, solid dances but they suffered from the over hype (as is typical) by Val. It wasn’t all that, babe. I don’t even remember her first dance. Her second dance was a bit of a letdown. Interesting concept by Bruno, but I don’t think it served them that well. Both were well danced, as usual, but well danced doesn’t cut it in a semi-final where there is so much emotion.

But, all that said, the scores are close enough that anyone (except Noah) could be going home. I was surprised that they actually scored the first round fairly, handing out scores that I would have handed out. Shocking. But the two points that Rumer is down may not be enough to protect Riker or Nastia. It’s too close to call. If the weakest dancer last night went home, it would be Rumer. Not that she’s weak…but I think the other three had it over her. But something tells me that they’ve successfully brainwashed the audience into voting her into the finale. Out of Riker and Nastia, I tend to give Nastia the edge. But who knows? Let’s look at the leader board.

DWTS 20 wk 9 Table 1

Argh. Annoying that they gave everyone a 30 in the second round, when I think that neither Riker nor Rumer really deserved it. But, as they often do when it’s close, they throw it to the audience to make the decision. Something tells me they won’t make the right one this time around. We’ll see.

So, Noah is at the bottom of the leaderboard. Although I think he did an amazing, truly inspirational job this season, last night was the topper – but all that said, I would rather Rumer, Riker and Nastia go to the finale.  That ALSO said, I won’t be upset with whoever goes home tomorrow night. I got Derek for ten weeks regardless….and I have a feeling that maybe the producers have finally pushed him too far, so we might not see him on this stage again.

I digress. What does Noah need to make the finale?? Not much.

DWTS 20 wk 9 Table 2

That’s really nothing at this stage of the game and I think he makes it easily. I could be wrong. It’s always possible that one fan group or another gets over confident, or another fan group seeing that proposal knows they could be screwed.

Next is Rumer. Rumer is two points ahead of Noah and two points behind Riker and Nastia. Again, not a lot of work required for her to be safe.

DWTS 20 wk 9 Table 3

For Rumer to be safe tomorrow night, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Noah fails to get the 7,300 votes per million votes cast to beat her, OR;
  • Rumer gets 7,300 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Riker or Nastia.

That’s it.  And I have no idea what will happen. For me, Rumer was the least memorable last night. She kinda faded into the woodwork. But they have a media machine going for them, in addition to the lion’s share of the actual show last night.

For Nastia or Riker to be safe tomorrow night, they need ONE of the following to happen (same rules apply to each of them since they are tied):

  • Noah fails to get the 14,600 votes per million votes cast to beat him/her, OR;
  • Rumer fails to get the 7,300 votes per million votes cast to beat him/her, OR;
  • One of them gets ONE MORE vote per million votes cast than the other.

No idea what’s going to happen.

But I have to make a guess. I think that Noah is passing Rumer and Riker for sure. Not so sure about Nastia, as she had the great Len tribute dance at the end of the show.  I think Noah is safe.

That leaves me with the other three. Based purely on demographics, I lean toward Nastia getting the one vote needed to beat Riker. Does Rumer get past her? Hard to say, but based on last night I would say no.  I *THINK* Nastia might be safe. But the other half of me thinks that Derek is too big a liability these days. I can’t decide.

I tend to think that Nastia gets the one vote over Riker. That would bring us down to Riker and Rumer. Rumer was more consistent last night, but Riker had the more exciting first dance. I kinda feel like the second dance let Riker down a bit. While I wasn’t overly impressed with Rumer’s second dance, I feel like it was better executed that Riker’s.

Honestly, I’m leaning toward Riker going home tonight but it could be ANYONE. I won’t be surprised by whoever it is.

One more week until Heidi can read books and sleep. 😀 Until MOVE Live on Tour starts up, anyway. 😉

 

 

May 12, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)