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Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

So, I am starting this while sitting in Honolulu airport on early Saturday afternoon. My flight has been delayed and I’m not home until tomorrow at 10am – let’s see if I can manage to get this written in that time. We’ll see. 🙂

I’m not highly motivated to write it, if I’m being honest. I’m kinda over this show and the extremely blatant manipulation. And I’m not even thinking that Marilu might go home. When I start writing this, I’m not actually sure who I think will go home. The margins are pretty tight.

I was also half asleep when I was watching this show, so I can’t comment really on the dances other than I’m surprised Marilu did as well as she did, considering her feet….

And now it’s Sunday afternoon – nearly 24 hours after I started traveling and I’m home and fed. And I haven’t slept. This should be interesting. Kinda pissed off cuz I paid American Airlines coin to have ONE connection in LAX. But one mysterious four hour delay in Honolulu led to a missed connection in LAX, a completely re-booked itinerary after standing in line for more than an hour and a half – and TWO connections! The hell? Honolulu to LAX, then LAX to O’Hare (and a long damn walk in O’Hare) followed by O’Hare to Nashville – my second leg left at ONE AM. Jesus. Also paid for upgraded seats and I think I only got one of those. To add insult to injury – my Group one/priority boarding got down graded to Group four. Not a big deal, you might think. Except the complete bitch at the LAX check-in made me (and quite a few others) gate check my rollerbag because she claimed that the overhead bins were full by the time I went to board – which meant I had to carry my lap top IN MY HANDS, along with my good camera.  Again…you might think no big deal (except I had to carry that f*&king laptop through two airports)….except I get on the plane and there are LOTS OF EMPTY OVERHEAD BINS. Never again, American Airlines.  You owe me MONEY. At least 400 bucks by my reckoning. POS.

Okay, now that I’ve got that out of my system….let’s take a look at the leader board.

dwts-23-wk-7-table-1

Now, the uneducated in this inner workings of this show might assume that Marilu is going to go home. I am not one of those. I still haven’t decided who IS going home, though. Wish it was Jana, but I have a sneaking feeling that she will end up with immunity unless someone else (James) dances so well that it’s impossible to not give it to him.

There are so many problems with the scenario Monday that I guess I’m going to have to list them – for my own sake as well as yours. Here we go:

  • First, handing out immunity. Say that James and Jana tie for the top spot. In the GOOD OLD DAYS, the person with the highest cumulative score would win – that would be James (by 22 points by my count). However, the first time they did the face off this season, LEN was the deciding vote. That means he could EASILY choose Jana over James. This stinks to high heaven. Now, if Laurie and James tie, they are also tied in cumulative score – and neither are in danger anyway, so no big deal. At least, I don’t think they are…
  • Second, this little contest is not only tailor made to save someone who might be eliminated tomorrow otherwise, but it COULD also mean that at least three other people NEXT week who might have gone home are again safe. They will start out three points ahead of probably two other people. One person will start out FIVE points ahead of those same two people, and two points ahead of the three who win three extra points (unless one of them goes home).  It’s essentially designed to limit the effectiveness of the viewer votes by weighting the couples very significantly.
  • Weighting the couples very significantly in TWO ways. Now, if the margins are similar to this week, and they don’t over and underscore significantly next week, it might not work….but who are we kidding here? If Marilu makes it through and even scores a 36 on her AT (as if they would allow that), Jana could get a perfect score and with her immunity it would put her as much as NINE points ahead of Marilu – a likely impossible margin. It’s disgusting. Say that Marilu dances against Terra and Marilu gets 36 and Terra gets 37 – Terra would get three additional points putting her four points ahead of Marilu, in addition to Jana’s 9 points in this scenario.  Do you see how shabby this is? I know you’re probably sick of hearing this word…but this show really IS rigged this week.  Marilu is just an example – same thing could happen to any of the three they would like to see the backside of.
  • Now, the actual functioning of the immunity – I would be willing to bet that Jana is in play. She could go home. Say that Marilu gets the votes to beat Ryan and Jana.  And Ryan, Terra and Laurie also beat Jana in votes – it could happen because Laurie and Terra only need ONE vote per million votes cast, and Ryan needs less than 5.5k votes per million votes cast.  If Marilu is beating Ryan and Jana, and Ryan, Terra and Laurie are beating Jana, Jana would go home. Unless she gets immunity. Suddenly someone who is NOT the person with the lowest combined score and viewer vote goes home – either Marilu or Ryan, most likely.  This is shitty, no matter who it is.

:::sigh::: This bites. So, Marilu is on the bottom of the leaderboard this week – but she doesn’t need a lot to be safe – provided the frakin’ immunity doesn’t get in her way.

dwts-23-wk-7-table-2

 

Now, assuming that immunity goes to either James, Laurie or Jana, Marilu really only needs to score that 3,630 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over Ryan. And if she gets about 9.1k more votes per million votes cast than Laurie, Jana or Terra, that would also make her safe. I’m inclined to think that Jana is a possibility, but Terra might be out of reach. She’s been making an impact.

See, if Marilu or Ryan get eliminated fair and square – fine. That’s the way the show works. But if one of them (or even Terra) goes home because the producers “save” Jana to keep their new beefcake around a bit longer? That’s bullshit. Let me remind you that Derek and Maks needed NO help being huge draws to this show – and Derek needed no help winning this show. He won it with dancers and non-dancers alike. And NONE of his partners were pimped to the extent we’ve seen with Val and now Gleb. Give me a break. If they were all that, they wouldn’t need their help to be successful. Me thinks these producers are too close to their show and have gotten so into manipulating that it’s like a drug they can’t put down.

Okay, so that covers Marilu – what about Ryan and the gang?  I’ve got all the numbers in the next table, but I’m going to ignore James and Calvin, because I assume they are safe.

dwts-23-wk-7-table-3

Clearly, Ryan needs for Marilu to NOT get the 3.4k more votes per million votes cast OR he needs to get 5.5k more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Laurie, Terra or Jana. These are SMALL numbers…and now you see why I’m not sure who’s going home.  Who’s getting the votes?

Well, my gut still has me wondering if Jana is getting the votes…but I’m over tired and it could be wishful thinking. Let’s take a look at what would have to happen for Jana to be eliminated:

  • She doesn’t win immunity, AND;
  • Marilu gets 9.1k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Ryan gets 5.5k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Laurie and Terra BOTH get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Jana doesn’t get the votes to pass either James or Calvin.

I tend to think that Jana is in real danger – or she was.  The real question is – how gullible is the audience? They’ve been working pretty hard to make Marilu invisible – they don’t include anything about her injuries in her package, they rarely send her up to Erin to chat, her camera time is basically limited.  Conversely, the producers are beating us over the head with Jana.

So why do they feel the need to do this? Well, Marilu is/was getting too many votes or Jana isn’t getting enough… or both. So…did it work? Have they managed to influence the audience? One only has to read some of the comments here to know they have an impact on the gullible.

Considering the unbelievable crap I read about our elections…I tend to think that most people just blindly believe what they see on TV or on the internet without question. While I do think the bottom three are likely Jana, Marilu and Ryan, Jana will end up being safe, one way or another.

I think it will come down to Ryan and Marilu and I really have no idea who will go home. My gut is leaning towards Marilu – a la a Nastia-style hatchet job, combined with other not so fun factors. But my gut is unreliable when it comes to Derek’s partners.

I think without the help, Jana might have been gone a week or two ago – this week for sure. And if Marilu goes, she better pray she gets the extra points for next week.

October 30, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Another week, another bout of wackiness when it comes to judges scoring – luckily not as bad as in previous weeks.  Well, perhaps I should say ‘not as widespread’ as in previous weeks because it was still pretty bad in at least one instance.

If Len had been around this week, Jana would have gotten a 7 or 8 for her Argentine Tango – I think you can count on it. He’s shown recently that he doesn’t limit that just to Derek’s partners. But he wasn’t there so the travesty of Jana getting a perfect score while the better AT is three points lower. Why? Well, I suspect that Jana has been on the bubble and the leader board this week reflects the top half (to the judges) and the bottom half…with Marilu kinda straddling the middle ground, which is quite dangerous. The judges, I think, have roughly grouped the couples in that way – with the possibility of Calvin falling out of favor and Marilu rising. I think the jury is out for them on those two couples. Everyone else is either top three or bottom three. Read more..

October 20, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, this week will be interesting.  We have a four way tie for last place and I’m sure that was just an accident. :::rolls eyes:::  Let me tell you, one of that four is not like the others – what the hell is Calvin still doing at the bottom of the leader board? Personally, I’m not convinced that Maureen belongs down there either, but I would only put her above Amber and Ryan by a point. Calvin by 2 or 3 points.  I think that Maureen has been a bit overscored on more than one occasion but I like her so I ain’t too mad. Calvin, on the other hand, has been robbed on more than one occasion. Not sure what they’re seeing there, honestly. Lindsey has been doing a tremendous job in choreo and I think she has a harder job than Sharna, the other standout female pro this season.  Good lord, Calvin was throwing Lindsay around…it was amazing.

I think that Laurie landed in about the right spot this week, as did Marilu and James. Terra…I don’t know what to make of her. I LIKE her so much, a lot of the time, but the contemporary dance didn’t do much for me. Conversely, her Samba kicked ASS. I think it has to do with her small stature which limits her ability to get that flowy, smooth finish to dances like Contemporary. Not her fault, but at some point they will have to score her in comparison to other competitors. I think she’s just too high on the leader board this week. Read more..

October 14, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, another night of crap ass scoring by judges who were having a hard time hiding their agenda. I mean what the hell was going on there? It’s almost like they got together before the show, had some wine and decided what scores they were going to hand out…and then several people over performed and didn’t match the low scores that were determined over drinks.

A huge problem with this show – HUGE – is the assigning of themes and dances. You give Laurie – the gymnast – a dance with few to no rules on a week where the theme whose middle name is “gymnastics”. Then you turn around and give EVERYONE else dances with very clear rules – and mark them down when they don’t execute. Of course Laurie got 10s – there was no way to “miss” a step, or have not enough body contact, or whatever. It’s ridiculous that you have couples dancing Jazz up against V.Waltz, Quickstep, Paso Doble and Tangos. Ridiculous. But worst of all, Val had a dance where anything goes, to an MJ song, with a 16 year old gymnast…and did we see anything close to what both Derek and Mark choreographed when they had partners with similar skill sets? Nope. Not even close. It’s a waste of a great partner.

:::sigh::: But why bother? I’m not the least bit surprised.

Anyway, I think Babyface is likely history and I’m thinking that Marilu will end up being safe. She and Calvin were both so underscored that I suspect they are getting the votes. I hope so, anyway.  Here’s where the leaderboard was at the end of the night…and keep in mind tomorrow is a double elimination. Read more..

October 4, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This was written during and after the first (HISTORIC) Presidential Debate. You’ve been warned. 🙂

I have a sniffing, loud guy in my ear, so I’m having a hard time concentrating, but how on earth is Terra two points ahead of Marilu?? This is a mystery to me. I think Marilu had a balance problem right at the beginning of her dance (she’s 64, after all), but that was a good dance. Then again, how did Laurie get a full three points more than her, lift and all?? And is that the first time Val’s ever actually been called on a lift? He’s done them before but I don’t remember him getting so nailed on it.

Anyway, I think Terra (and Laurie) did do a good job, I just don’t get the scoring two weeks in a row that insulates her. I’m afraid that once the people they want to leave, actually leave the scoring may change and that is fair to no one. It’s whiplash inducing for people who don’t know just how manipulated this show really is.  Read more..

September 27, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, seems there was a bit of protective scoring going on – were we right to be worried about Terra? In any case, she did a great dance, she was just a bit overscored.

Unfortunately for Jake, Maureen had a good, nostalgic dance and Ryan overcame his protesters (and the heart shirts a bunch of people wore will likely touch hearts as well, and Amber is still dancing with Maks. I would be STUNNED if Maks were ever the first one out. Your pro won’t win you the show, but he should prevent you from being first out. Read more..

September 20, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think I made most of my impressions pretty clear in the Live Blog for Week 1.  Sometimes they change over the course of the week and upon rewatching the show, but since I was away from home for more than 10 days, including last Monday night, I haven’t had a chance to rewatch.  Maybe next week.

Since there is a results show this Tuesday night, I assume that no one is eliminated until Tuesday. Is this an assumption?…runs to check the press release…okay, the press release said that the first elimination is on Tuesday night and is based on week 1 and week 2 scores and votes.  Of course, this means that this calculation of the numbers is only to show the standings (and my thoughts on who would go home) of week 1 only. I’ll have to do a quick DBTN update on Monday night to see if my thoughts on who’s leaving change based on Monday’s dances.  I love my sleep these days, so when there’s a results show it usually means a late night…for me and Courtney both. Anyway, look for the DBTN update at about 2 pm Eastern on Tuesday.  Courtney’s power rankings typically go up after the show or first thing Tuesday morning. When there is no results show, Courtney’s power rankings will go up on Tuesday and I shoot for Thursday. SHOOT FOR…I don’t always make it. 🙂 If you missed Court’s power rankings this week, just click the link to read them…when you’re done here. 😉 Read more..

September 17, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 22, THE FINALE – Dancing by the Numbers WHO’S GONNA WIN??

Well, that’s somewhat surprising. At the end of the night there was a tie, but it was a tie for second, with Paige all alone at the top.  I didn’t get to see the show live, I am going on youtube and the scores with this commentary. I will likely get to watch the show before the finale-finale, but I need to write this before then.  🙂

I will just say…”the best dance ever on DWTS”??? Bullshit. Typical judge hyperbole and they say it at least once every season and it never means anything. It’s obvious when it’s actually true – very obvious. Sharna should know better than to buy into this – really, where have you been? The audience is MUCH smarter than this and this is the mistake people on this show continue to make every season. It’s ridiculous. Thanks for playing, try again.

Anyway, the scores do make me wonder if the judges really understand how the show works – and if they remembered that last weeks scores and votes count too. Do I really think they would rank it Paige – Ginger – Nyle and then give everyone a 30 on their freestyle if they knew it would result in this?

Screenshot 2016-05-23 23.36.52

 

No, I’m not sure I believe that the judges would allow Paige to be alone at the top with a four point cushion.  I think they might believe that Paige only has a one point lead and that they ranked them how they think they should finish. The crack is strong in these judges. 😉

Anyway, what this means is that if either Nyle or Ginger want to win, they have to get about 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Paige does.

It’s really that simple. But what happens when they add points tomorrow?? I have a really hard time believing that the judges will change the rank – they RARELY change the spread or the rank after the votes have been cast. I don’t think they will do it tomorrow. I wager they will give everyone the same score – and this will reduce the margin.

How much? If everyone gets a 30 on their fusion, Ginger or Nyle will need 7,300 more votes per million votes cast to WIN over Paige.  It can certainly happen – someone can beat her.  Tony claimed that there was only three or four percent between the couples. But what does that mean? Between the couples with the combined score?? Between the couples votes? I have no idea what the context is on this. ETA in the morning: Saw a bit of the show, and Tom said after the judges scores and your votes were combined there is only a 3% difference between them. That means that it’s anyone’s game. Like it was before. 🙂

So what do I think will happen? I think that if the judges don’t tinker tomorrow, Paige will squeak out a win. If not her, then Nyle will take it. But I’m leaning towards Paige. The only thing that will really piss me off is if Ginger manages it.

But I don’t think she will…I think/hope/pray it will be Paige and Mark.

ETA:  and to show how schizophrenic I am, this morning when I woke up I was leaning toward Nyle squeaking out a win. That’s just how close it is.   Still praying for Paige though. 🙂

May 24, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 22, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Since this past week won’t actually result in an elimination all on it’s own, I took my time writing this and I’m doing it on my new MacBook, so I’m learning at the same time.  🙂

Well, last Monday sucked pretty bad – the one bright spot being that Paige got through to the final which makes me very happy. Last Monday was the first week that I was mostly wrong on who was going home. Wanya was my third choice – bummed about that, but at least we lost Antonio. We still have someone in the final who really shouldn’t be there and that’s Ginger. I would say “that’s how it goes sometimes” but I won’t because the pimping has been relentless. The takeover of every single DWTS segment on GMA is one thing…but the DWTS official twitter accounts are sickening with their focus on Ginger. Have you seen their latest photo of the finalists with Ginger right out in front? It’s not even subtle any more. I don’t get it. She seems like a nice woman, sure – but she’s not all that as a dancer and Val is doing nothing for her in terms of choreography. Their motives are pretty transparent – she’s family. Read more..

May 22, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 22, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

It is weeks like this where I seriously consider not watching this show any more. To make matters worse, this season follows a season like the one we had with Bindi. Good lord, I’m not even sure where to start.

If I weren’t so lazy, I would go back and dig up half a dozen videos of CAI and the other bozos saying stuff like “You screwed up your footwork, but I don’t care!!” and then rewarding them with a 9 or a 10. I’m positive there’s a video out there of CAI commenting on how a dance was so entertaining she had to reward it with a high score, even though there was a slip up, or a lift, or some other issue. This is where they really pull back the curtain and you see it’s just an old dude at the controls and not some magical wizard – the manipulation is clear. Yeah, Wanya screwed up. But I would be WAY MORE okay with his scores if I wasn’t positive that worse dancing has been given higher scores when the dancer is one of the chosen.  But Wanya isn’t one of the chosen. He gets the Bethany tone of voice along with the Nastia packages. I said it back when Bethany was on the show – just watch CAI’s body language and listen to her tone of voice when she’s talking to either Bethany or Wanya. It like they committed a capital offense. It’s all designed to show or imply to the viewer that the recipient just ain’t all that and they don’t deserve your votes. Bitch please. You aren’t in a position to be that condescending – you won the night in the Team dance, but that bar was pretty low.

And that clown Antonio is worthy of ass kissing and high scores despite the fact that he’s barely rehearsed until recently and threw Sharna under a bus? Yeah, not cool.  If he’d been killing himself in rehearsal all this time, I MIGHT have a different opinion – but we know that isn’t the case. And spare me on the “he has another job” bs. Wanya has been touring this whole time and CANCELLED stuff so that he could rehearse more. Read more..

May 13, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)