DWTS By the Numbers | Pure Dancing with the Stars

DWTS All Stars, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Some of you may recall what I’ve said on more than one occasion in various blogs on this site. I’ve said…when the judges get REAL, someone who has been previously deluded gets mad. And that, my friends, is Val and his big bro, who really needs to stay off twitter during the show. I think that’s all the attention that I will give these children – really what more can be said about them at this point?

Anyway, Shawn and Melissa did great, although I thought that Melissa’s AT was overscored by a point or two for being too soft (as per usual). She also made the mistake of her Lindy – too many lifts such that some of them were a bit messy. I also find it amusing that when given the opportunity Melissa and Tony LOAD UP on the lifts and tricks (Lindy and AT…and the caveman hustle, for that matter), but some fans whine about Shawn. Derek stripped their AT down to technical cool – it was also a tad soft, but it was a better dance than Melissa’s, despite what CAI thinks. Like I said in the comments – I want Melissa in the finale, so I’ll live with a tiny bit of overscoring. But if Shawn didn’t deserve a 30, Melissa didn’t either.

Apolo?? AWESOME Rumba – far better than Kelly’s. I will confess that I don’t know enough about Jazz to know if that was good or not. I liked it, despite a couple minor difficulties. But hell, Emmitt slipped last week and got 10’s, why not Apolo?? Emmitt was overscored on his first dance and, as Courtney pointed out on Twitter, it’s this sort of scoring that sends better dancers home. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Here is our scoreboard after two dances – and my top three coincide with the Judges Top 3. Awesome. Not that it means anything.

At the bottom, we have Emmitt and Kelly. I think that if Kelly or Emmitt manage to stick around it will be at Melissa’s expense and I hope like hell that doesn’t happen because Melissa is ten times the dancer that Kelly is. But, that’s the funny thing about an All Star season – you aren’t guaranteed a spot just because you’re a good dancer. That goes for Apolo and Shawn too – no guarantees. Read more..

DWTS All Stars, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

If you want to look at the numbers from last week before they added in two more dances, take a look at DBTN Week 7.

I’m not even going to discuss the judging tonight – it was awful from the opening dance all the way to the end. Len and his horrible comment to Shawn – I think maybe he heard Derek say “f#$k you” with his choreo or something. People who got perfect scores shouldn’t have while others were excessively punished. I feel bad for Apolo’s trio going after Shawn cuz he seemed pretty tame after. I love Emmitt, but a 30 on his trio?? No way. Len’s treatment of Gilles (aka Good) is inexplicable. And that V. Waltz from Kelly?? WHAT?? Crack is wack, ya’ll. Ridiculous. Oh, look, I talked all about the judging after I said I wouldn’t. That’s cuz it’s taking the enjoyment out of the show for me. Anyway, on with the show:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Bye Bye Kirstie. I don’t think there’s any way she beats that spread. She was in the bottom two previously, when the spread was much smaller. Since it’s a double elimination, she needs TWO of the following to happen, to avoid going home:

- Kirstie needs 19,550 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

- Kirstie needs 20,320 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

- Kirstie needs 21,100 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt or Kelly, OR;

- Kirstie needs 22,670 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

- Kirstie needs 31,250 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

I’m sorry, Kirstie fans. I do wish I could say I thought she was staying. Unfortunately, I think she’s the only sure thing of the night. I would much rather Gilles and Kelly leave before her, but I don’t see that happening. Read more..

DWTS Season 15, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

As everyone knows by now, no one went home this week. But in case you want to know how the judges scores are going to affect who ultimately goes home, I thought I would run the numbers for the week. After the Week 8 dances, I’ll run the numbers again and you can compare.

Here are the Week 7 scores and percentages:

As you can see, Melissa appears to be safely at the top of the leader board. So was Sabrina. The difference this week is that there is a MUCH larger spread between the top and the bottom. Unfortunately for Melissa (and others) there are two more dance scores to be added to each celeb before anyone is eliminated, which will tighten the margins and make it easier for someone to go home. When Sabrina went home, there was only 6.5 points between the top and the bottom. Right now there are 10 points between Kirstie and Melissa – but that is likely to change.

I think it likely that Shawn and Apolo are safe – of course we can’t be sure, but that’s what my instincts are saying. I’m also inclined to believe that Emmitt is safe. But, this is where predicting who goes home gets extremely difficult…almost impossible…to call.

Looking at the list of the celebrities that are left, I’m inclined to think that Melissa is the one in most danger when you aren’t looking at the scores and the margins. Just looking at the list, she seems (all other things being equal) like the one most likely to get the boot. But she’s at the top of the leader board. So, what would it take for her to actually leave?? ALL of the following would have to happen for Melissa to be eliminated:

- Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

- Apolo would have to get 24,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

- Gilles would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

- Emmitt would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

- Kelly would have to get 12,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

- Shawn would have to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast.

DWTS Season 15, Week 6 – A Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective on Sabrina Bryan

So, what happened to Sabrina is pretty easy to explain. Everyone covered the spread. Period. She was at the top of the leaderboard and didn’t need to get MORE votes than anyone else, she just needed to get enough votes to prevent them from catching up to her.

The table below shows Sabrina versus each of the other dancers, the percentage between them and then the number of votes per million votes cast that that individual needs to bypass Sabrina and stay safe.

Ultimately, every single dancer got at least one more than that number of votes per million votes cast than Sabrina and Sabrina was, therefore, eliminated. Looking at the numbers, above, you can see that it wouldn’t be really hard for anyone other than Kelly to get the votes. Those are small damn numbers. And if Sabrina isn’t getting many votes, just how hard is it for Kelly? Spare me the “Power of the soap fan” spiel. That’s nuts – if ya’ll were that powerful Soap’s audiences wouldn’t be shrinking and they wouldn’t be getting cancelled left and right. And Kelly wasn’t the only person who beat Sabrina – EVERYONE did. Which means she just wasn’t getting the votes. This says nothing, really, about Kelly and everything about Sabrina. Read more..

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, tonight just pissed me off – even before we got to the word “frippery”. Ahem. Melissa had a bench and a campfire and a whole bunch of leg lifts. Kelly had a stage coach and the standard Chmerkovskiy run up the stairs…and Shawn has frippery. In what f&*king universe does Len give Shawn and Kirstie Alley the same score – two weeks in a row. This show has jumped the shark, totally.

Okay, the truly hilarious part about “frippery” is watching Derek mouth the word silently – you could almost see him wonder what the hell that word means. LOL. :-)

Gilles? I have this urge to punch him. Repeatedly.

My favorite dance of the night was Apolo’s – finally scored him appropriately. I do wonder if Shawn’s turn is next or if she’s running away with the votes. But I have to say – I didn’t see much difference in quality between Sabrina, Melissa and Shawn. Shawn had a tad bit of stiffness due to her knee (think she could stop screwing around with Sabrina?? Love that all those CMM girls are bffs, but come on) but still. I didn’t see a two point difference between the two of them. Instead, over the course of two weeks there is a four point difference. Total bull. But this is all about protecting Sabrina and Melissa for a week or two.

I could go on all night. I’ll stop. I should be used to the storyboarding of this show by now.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, I think Kelly might just be toast. Perhaps they want Kirstie around so she can be the easy elimination next week when the judges pull the trigger. It’s a theory Courtney and I discussed a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. But ya know, there were so many points handed out that there are pretty small margins between all the dancers. You think Sabrina is safe?? I wouldn’t be so sure. She probably is, but I don’t know I would put any serious cash on it. Kelly likely protects Sabrina…but we’ll see. What does Kelly need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following:

- Kelly needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

- Kelly needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

- Kelly needs 8,180 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

- Kelly needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

- Kelly needs 11,200 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

- Kelly needs 11,900 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

- Kelly needs 14,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, those are some pretty small numbers at the bottom half of the leaderboard. Unfortunately for Kelly, those lower people are Kirstie and Emmitt. That said, Kirstie has been in the bottom two and Kelly has never been tested up to this point. Can she get the votes?? I honestly don’t know. My gut says no and that they over played their showmance. Or, are they petting Kirstie a lot because they know she’s going home and they want her to go out on a high?? Dare we hope for a Shocking Gilles elimination?? Unfortunately, probably not.

But back to Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick around? She needs ONE of the following in order to stay tomorrow:

- Kirstie needs Kelly to not cover the spread, OR

- Kirstie needs 750 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

- Kirstie needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

- Kirstie needs 3,720 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

- Kirstie needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

- Kirstie needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

- Kirstie needs 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Now, if the shippers are out of control, then Emmitt could actually be the one in trouble here. Is Kirstie getting those kind of votes over someone like Emmitt?? Well, Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork – but I don’t know. I have a hard time seeing Kelly cover that spread, so it may be irrelevant. I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Oh Emmitt, are you getting votes? I keep forgetting you’re on the show, but that could just be me. What does Emmitt need to stick around?? ONE of the following:

- Emmitt needs Kelly and Kirstie to not cover the spread.

- Emmitt needs 2,230 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

- Emmitt needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

- Emmitt needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

- Emmitt needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

- Emmitt needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, the spreads are too small. I don’t think that Shawn or Gilles are in any danger, but that the bottom two is two out of Kelly, Kirstie and Emmitt. Based on the scoring, I’m thinking that they have Kelly down as the next boot, possibly because ratings are involved and she’s not getting votes anyway. They are at the point in the show where just about everyone is popular for one reason or another and they not only want to have the best dancers in the final six, but they want to have a guilt free elimination next week when they (the judges) have to make the call. They will be somewhat backlash free if that person is Kirstie. That would leave them with a final six of Shawn, Apolo, Melissa, Gilles, Sabrina and possibly Emmitt. That’s pretty damn good. But it’s an all star season – it should be.

So, I think that the bottom two are going to be Kelly and Kirstie with Kelly going home. Could be Kirstie going home, but I’m betting Kelly. I would not be surprised to be wrong. If it’s a big surprise, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. Cuz I gotta wrap THIS up.

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

This week, this particular post doesn’t mean a hill of beans because, as I’m sure you’ve all figured out by now, there was no elimination. But I’ve had a few requests for it so you can see how your favorites are doing. EVERYTHING could change on Monday night and I have some confidence that it will. I predict Sabrina stays in first place to get her past this particular week – and maybe past the following week. I think that Kirstie and Kelly – and maybe Melissa – are the next designated people who are considered disposable by the producers/judges.

Yes. Heidi is having a very cynical week.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers for this week:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Oh dear, everyone favorite over the top showmance which gets more forced by the day is in serious trouble. At least, this week. You’ll notice that everyone but Kirstie has at least a percentage point lead on her. That translates to more votes than I would be comfortable with if I were them – roughly 10,000. What does Kelly have to do to stick around beyond this pretend elimination week? ONE of the following:

- Kelly needs to get 2,250 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

- Kelly needs to get 10,150 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

- Kelly needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

- Kelly needs to get 15,750 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Kelly has been relatively protected up to now by people with either much lower scores or fanbase issues of their own. But that protection is largely gone this week. Lots of people would be tempted to say that Kirstie is going to go because she was in the bottom two last week with Bristol. But Kirstie beat the spread on Bristol that was about three times the spread between her and Kelly. This is the part of the all star season where it gets really hard, cuz I’m really not sure if Kelly’s got juice or not. I’m inclined to say “not” – when compared to Kirstie. And I don’t think there is anyone else she can catch. Don’t give me crap about Soap fanbases – soaps are being cancelled left and right. Not to mention that it’s all relative – someone has to go, so you have to consider if other fanbases are bigger or more passionate.

But let’s assume that Kelly finds a miraculous way to safety. What does Kirstie needs need in order to stick around?? She needs ONE of the following:

- Kirstie needs to get 7,900 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

- Kirstie needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

- Kirstie needs to get 13,500 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Based on those numbers, if there was an elimination this week I think it easily comes down to Kelly and Kirstie. I think the only other two people in potential danger would be Melissa and Sabrina – but the margins are too great this week. I think. We won’t really know until it happens. The path forward from here is really not clear. Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork lately, so it’s possible he’s in the lower tier as well.

But, when asked to make a guess, my guess is that Kelly would go home. If not her, Kirstie. Next week, we add a ton of points and everything can change. In any case, you can be sure the margins get smaller.

DWTS Season 15, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. As Courtney mentioned, the abundance of points handed out means that the margins are shrunk a bit over all. While that might spell disaster for a few pairs, it also HELPS Apolo tremendously. Why, do you ask?? Well, he has to do next to nothing – like, maybe, take off his shirt – to get past a couple of the lesser known females. Throw in the minor disaster in the middle of their dance and poor, weepy Karina and you have sympathy votes out the wazoo. I saw you people in the comments saying you had to throw some votes his way. That’s how the sympathy vote works. Even without it, I doubt Apolo is in any danger. Let me tell you why…here’s how the leader board stacks up:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Ya see? Yeah, Apolo is near the bottom, but see how close he is in points to the people above him? The points seem like more, but look at the percentages. Between Apolo and Kelly there is LESS THAN one percentage point. That’s what happens when so many freakin’ points are handed out. Now, maybe I will turn out to be way wrong here, and really with the way this season is, I wouldn’t be surprised – but I don’t think he’s going anywhere. And maybe I’m in denial. Cuz I love me some Apolo. Not as much as I love me some Derek (he played the drums!! :::swoon::: I’ve always been a sucker for musicians) but still.

So, what about our bottom dwellers?? Hmmmm….I guess we find out once again this week what their competition is made of. Really, again, it’s just as much about the other ladies and their staying power as it is about Bristol and Kirstie. Kirstie is the low woman on the totem pole – what all does she need to survive yet again?? She needs ONE of the following:

- Kirstie needs 6,220 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol to stick around, OR;

- Kirstie needs 14,000 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

- Kirstie needs 17,110 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;

- Kirstie needs 18,670 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

- Kirstie needs 21,775 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

- Kirstie needs 23,330 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

- Kirstie needs 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn/Gilles. Read more..

DWTS All Stars, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Anyone else find it somewhat (ok, not at all) coincidental that the two women likely in the most trouble with voters were also at the top of the leaderboard, yet had dances that were not even close to tied for the best of the night?? Don’t get me wrong, I like both Melissa and Kelly very much, but even with docked points for breaking the rules, Shawn and Apolo belong at the top of the leaderboard. The only thing that comes to my mind is that they are doing fine in votes, and Melissa and Kelly both need protection from Kirstie and Bristol. Why do they warrant protection and Drew and Helio don’t?? Well…Drew and Helio don’t work for ABC. Melissa and Kelly (and Gilles) both do work for ABC. There are no coincidences. Sure, Apolo and Shawn are likely fine – but it chaps my ass that for two weeks in a row Apolo has gotten screwed and this week Shawn joins him. There is no way – no way – that either Melissa or Kelly deserve to be a full point and a half ahead of Apolo. I say, give them each a 25.5 or 26, Apolo a 27 or 28 and Shawn a 27 (only because she broke the rules).

Note to Mark, Louis and Maks – Derek is the example that you all should look to when being chastised for breaking the rules. All Derek and Shawn wanted from Len was the admission that he liked the dance very much. That is telling. They both knew full well they were going to be docked – the only question was by how much. I’m still in awe of how much air Derek got when doing the jump split or whatever it’s called. He got higher than Shawn did! As for Apolo – honey, sexy ain’t work for you, you is HOT. Ten times hotter than Gilles. Not like that is a stretch this season.

ANYway, let’s analyze who has the best shot of sticking around and who…doesn’t.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, I hate to say it, but barring a miracle, I think Drew might be toast. That makes me sad, because I like Drew, and Bristol? Not so much. Kirstie only needs one more vote than him and Bristol needs a number that she easily got over him once before. I have a hard time imagining a scenario where she doesn’t do it again, especially since I think most viewers are going to view her with sympathy, thanks to how the show aired the footage last night. Anyway, let’s look at what Bristol has to do to stick around. She needs TWO of the following:

- Bristol needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie or Drew, OR;

- Bristol needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

- Bristol needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Sabrina, Helio or Apolo, OR;

- Bristol needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

- Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.

Hmmm….looking at it like that, I’m not entirely sure that Kelly or Melissa are safe. But they probably are – I think Drew is toast in this scenario. The question is – who else is toast?? Bristol, as the low scorer, needs to jump over TWO people in order to stay, not just one. Boy oh boy – tonight could be interesting. My gut tells me that since Helio already made a trip to the bottom two, that he’s the likely second eliminee (sorry Brooke). Emmitt might be over rated with the audience, or one of the top three could be in trouble simply out of fans certainty that they are safe. Or it could be someone else in the middle of the pack. Anyway… Read more..

DWTS All Stars Week 2 – A Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

So, lots of surprise and shock that Joey was eliminated this past week on DWTS. How could that happen, when three women had lower scores than him and he was such a charmer?? Well, there are lots of theories – I didn’t even really consider him as an option for elimination, but that’s what’s crazy about this season. So, let’s explore how that might have happened. There are a number of possible reasons, but first we’ll go over the “How did it happen” as opposed to the “Why”.

As you might remember from my “Dancing by the Numbers” post for Week 2, Joey was tied for 7^th place with Drew and Emmitt. For Drew, who had been in the bottom two the previous week, to stick around, all he had to do was get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Joey, and voila! He’s safe. Same for Emmitt. Clearly, that happened.

But how did Helio end up in the bottom over the previously at-risk Drew? Drew had to have gotten at least 1,812 more votes per million votes cast than Helio. What else?? Well, ALL of the following had to happen for Helio to land in the bottom two:

- Bristol got at least 18,116 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, AND;

- Kirstie got at least 7,246 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, AND;

- Kelly got at least 3,623 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, AND;

- Drew and Emmitt both got at least 1,811 more votes per million votes cast than Helio.

Now, I had never believed that Helio was in the running for the MBT. I and others also said that he was a potential early exit. But Joey?? That was rather surprising. ALL of the following had to happen for Joey to be eliminated:

- Bristol got at least 16,304 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, AND;

- Kirstie got at least 5,435 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, AND;

- Kelly got at least 1,812 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, AND;

- Drew and Emmitt both got at least 1 more vote per million votes cast than Joey, AND;

- Joey didn’t cover the spread between him and Helio.

DWTS Season 15, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Crack is wack…and BACK in the ballroom. Everything Courtney said about the scoring – I said much the same. Overly kind to some couples, desperately trying to find fault with others. What it boiled down to was a whole bunch of over scoring combined with some “just right” scoring. I don’t think anyone was underscored, really, but many were way too high. Including Bristol and Kirstie, despite them being at the bottom of the leader board. It’s this kind of scoring that always leads to shocking eliminations. Do I really think that either Bristol or Kirstie will go home this week? Read on…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

This is why this season is so tough – even with a pretty good break between Bristol and the rest, there is NO guarantee that she’s going home like there would be in a normal season. Like it or not, Bristol is on the show for a reason. Do I think she has a HUGE fanbase? Well, it’s never truly been tested. It will be tonight, to a degree. Now, I think Kelly and Drew both are in serious danger. HOWEVER, last week Bristol only needed 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than Drew in order for him to land in the bottom two. This week is a different story and will be a bit more of a test of her fanbase. What does Bristol need to have happen in order to stick around for another week? She needs at least ONE of the following things to happen:

- Bristol needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

- Bristol needs 14,500 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

- Bristol needs 16,310 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;

- Bristol needs 18,120 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;

- Bristol needs 19,930 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

- Bristol needs 23,550 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo

DWTS All Stars, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

DWTS All Stars, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

DWTS Season 15, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

DWTS Season 15, Week 6 – A Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective on Sabrina Bryan

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

DWTS Season 15, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

The Judges Scores and Percentages

DWTS All Stars, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

The Judges Scores and Percentages

DWTS All Stars Week 2 – A Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

DWTS Season 15, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

The Judges Scores and Percentages

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