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Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think the writing is on the wall for Candace, this week, I’m afraid. I’ll be very surprised to see her make it to night two. Not that it matters. She made it to the finale with Meryl, Amy and James and she should be VERY proud of that fact. I’m willing to bet that Mark gives her an amazing freestyle and I’m looking forward to seeing it. I’m looking forward to seeing all of them, actually.

In case you’re wondering, my last DBTN post will be on Tuesday morning and will show what the various players have to do to WIN – even though I think the odds are pretty firmly behind Meryl at this point. It all depends on if Maks manages a great Freestyle compared to the others. If they all suck, then he’s fine, but if Mark, Derek and Peta put on amazing freestyles and he doesn’t?? It might change the game. It might not, but it could.  And before you start squawking about facebook…that seems to work for who gets eliminated, but I wouldn’t be so sure that it works for who WINS. You have to think about how Facebook likes actually work. You also have to consider the fan groups involved. Do you think that the Meryl and Maks fans are doing everything they can to make sure ALL of them go to facebook and “like” those photos, now that it seems to show something?? I sure do. Do all fan groups do that? Beyond one tweet, probably not. Now that people know it appears to work, they will work harder to “like” – yes, it is extremely counterintuitive, but does that surprise you? You also have to consider that some people probably “like” more than one person or dance – so while the lack of likes may show who’s leaving, an excess of likes may not indicate a WIN.  Then there is a duration issue. How long do they wait between posting photos?? Is one couples photos going up first?  Just some things to consider.  I may analyze it more once the season is over – more from an intuitive angle than an actual math angle.

Anyway. This week I just left out the part of the post that includes Charlie’s numbers and went straight to the four remaining dancers. Sue me, I’m tired and I want to do something else. Here’s how it stacks up after two dances:

Week 9 Table 1

That order right there is how I think it will end up, on Tuesday, although it’s heavily dependent on the scores. Anyway, Meryl’s only got a 2 point lead on Amy and a 4 point lead on Candace. Not many points, but at this stage of the game it does equate to a good number of votes.

Week 9 Table 2

For Candace to make it to Tuesday night, she needs one of three things to happen:

  • Candace needs about 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than James, OR;
  • Candace needs about 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • Candace needs about 26,200 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

I really don’t see any of that happening. It’s too stacked against her.  Both she and James have been the last one standing a couple times, so I think if Candace can pass anyone, it will be James. If she were to do that James would need to get past either Amy or Meryl which involves:

  • James would have to get 6,600 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • James would need 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

If anything is going to work, he would get past Amy. He is the big heart throb after all. The only question is if the girls are seriously voting. He could be getting past Amy, but that only matters if Candace is getting past him. We won’t know until Monday night.

So, I think that Meryl is the only one safe for sure. The other three are in jeopardy. I predict that Candace is the one to be eliminated on Monday.  If Candace is beating James, I think Amy could go home because James doesn’t have to do much to get past her. Remember…heart throb. :-)

Here’s another prediction for you – I predict that if James makes it into the finale, they call him safe FIRST. Just to mess with ya’lls heads. Well, Meryl and Maks fans heads. We’ll see. And if they call Candace safe first? Amy fans should be worried.

May 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I kinda have to laugh. Why? Well, besides the large number of people (and websites) who thought that the picture Derek posted of a baby doing a push up was actually him…there were just so many people freaking out over Meryl’s score this week. Sheer panic. Lots of hysteria and a few requests for me to do my numbers post early.  Why is this funny? Well, because some of these same people who are now a tad panicked are the same ones who said, when I was complaining about Meryl being propped up, “hey, it’s just a silly dance show.”  LOL. So much for the “silly dance show.”  I’ll throw it back to you – It’s just a silly dance show. It’s not world peace.  And before you get all hoity toity and claim I’m only saying that because Amy is at the top of the leader board, I ask you to please point to where I ever expected her to win, prayed for her to win…hell, point to any post in the last two years or more where I got my knickers in a twist because Derek’s partner might not win.  I’m like Derek these days – it’s not about winning any more. And Amy has already won. She won the first time she danced on prosthetics in front of millions of people. That is a massive victory, along with a massive inspiration. Read more..

May 10, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Here’s the thing…when we get into the weeks where there are TWO dances, the margins get tighter, instead of bigger. More points are handed out. But the big question is – do the points handed out to the eliminated dancer count in the overall judges score? Because THIS WEEK, it could make all the difference in the world. People are worried about Charlie and James, but they don’t have it that hard in terms of what they have to get in votes to make up the difference in the judges scores – honestly, no one appears to be uber safe this week, I don’t think.

Let’s get right to it, shall we? See the table below for the judges scores and the percentage of the total for each celebrity, with NeNe’s scores included.

Wk 7 Table 1 Read more..

May 4, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, it’s Candace’s time in the hot seat, with Drew leaving us last week. Lucky for her, her road isn’t nearly as rough as Drew’s was.  Who’s going to be eliminated it a bit more up in the air.

Meryl, of course, is still pretty insulated at the top of the leader board – she did a great dance and she shouldn’t have any problems this week. Even though there are risks being pretty consistently at the top too. Four out of six weeks, Meryl has been at the top of the leaderboard – sometimes it has been earned and other times – not so much. Thing is, she’s been up there all by herself most of the time when I feel like others have danced just as well (Charlie), with harder choreography. So, the question is – how much complacency is in her fanbase?? I’m sure Maks’ fans are anything but complacent at this point – but the pros fanbase won’t get you the win. Obviously.

There are five weeks of dancing left – I doubt they will start underscoring Meryl, but the question is, will they start giving Charlie the scores he deserves? If they are going to do that, it’s time for them to start the growth arc. If they are determined for Meryl to win…they won’t start scoring Charlie appropriately. I’m quite curious to see what happens. I called Charlie for the win before the season even started – but my prediction kinda hinges on him getting scored appropriately. He sure hasn’t been until now. If Meryl were dancing with Derek, I’m certain she would probably win. I don’t think it’s a sure thing with Maks. I still think Charlie has a real shot.

Another big question I have – why is NeNe getting so much love from the judges?? For all the whining and complaining I see about Amy and her scores, girlfriend can seriously dance AND Derek is giving her actual dances that resemble (strongly) the style they’re supposed to be. Some people still want her marked down for some reason (I have theories, fear being a large component). But the same cannot be said for NeNe.  NeNe is putting on good performances (most of the time) but her dances have only been in the stated style about half the time – yet no one has said a word, she’s getting 9s and people bitch about Amy. It’s rather mind boggling.  I hate to break it to you folks who are scared of Amy and Derek – when NeNe is getting high scores, it’s MORE likely that your favorite will go home in a shocking elimination. There is not a huge spread between the dancers when EVERYONE is doing pretty well, score wise. Some of you focus on Amy – you should be worried as much or MORE about NeNe.  There is a method to their madness, after all. A reason why she’s getting good scores. You better hope they wise up fast. If she’s hitting some metric of popularity which results in overscoring so she sticks around – she’s the one you should be scared of.  See Leah Remini staying longer than Christina and Liz. Same thing – over scoring of Leah put her in easy striking distance of Liz.  Combine the likely-very-popular Candace at the bottom with the overscored NeNe above her…well, it could get interesting. Read more..

April 26, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, this week is fairly simple. Drew has a tough row to hoe this week, with the biggest margins since week 2. And really, I don’t have too many complaints with the scores overall, as they rather reflect my feelings after my initial viewing of the show.  What I AM waiting for, is the hammer to fall on Maks and Meryl for the “messing about” that Maks puts in about 75% of his dances. It’s even more glaringly obvious after Val and Meryl’s Argentine Tango. Anyone else who had a ringer of that caliber (particularly Derek) would have gotten hosed by now for all the crap. But really, Derek has often gotten hosed for crap in dances that other couples get away with in the very same show. I’m looking at you, Tony, Val AND Maks.  Usually, this occurs when Derek has a really good partner.  Now, the shoe is on the other foot and we get nothing but praise for the golden couple. Oddly, Charlie is just as big a ringer and he is getting the ringer treatment. Seriously, 3 points deducted for dropping that cane? If ever there was a time that the judges should have gotten together and said “hey, killer routine, very difficult – a dropped cane is only worth one point.” But no, they couldn’t manage that.  Are they REALLY trying to manipulate the audience into thinking that Meryl should win?? Because you know, some of the audience resemble sheep – they want to vote for the perceived winner. This is a dangerous game, though, because the audience also likes an underdog – especially if one is as good a dancer with harder choreo than the golden girl.  It will be interesting to see how things continue to progress on this front. Read more..

April 20, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, after being out of town for a few days, I finally got to watch the whole show. My thoughts…in a bullet list. :-)

  • Geez, all that brouhaha over Julianne’s comments and that was it?? She qualified the crap out of it and said she loves Maks but…. Really, I was expecting harsher, after all the discussion here.
  • Candace was TOTALLY hosed. And I mean totally. That was a very good dance and Tony did a good job with it. WTF is going on here?? Is she being sacrificed on the Meryl alter?
  • Candace’s dance was about a thousand times better than Danica’s, thanks to Maks. Is he EVER going to stop putting all that non-dancing in his choreo? About time he was called on it.
  • LOVED Drew’s dance – Witney got it just right. I’m liking this girl a lot.
  • Read more..

April 13, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Ah, the week of switch up voting. Is someone trying to make me hate this show?? I mean really.  A logical person can look at the voting contest and sense a total clusterf*^k – that the producers will count the votes in which ever of the 6 or 8 ways gives them the results they desire. But I’ll let Courtney go into more detail on that – it just annoys me, as do the Maks/Val fans who insist that Derek fans are only voting to see Derek with Meryl so he can win again. Uh, hello, but I think most Derek fans neither expect nor WANT him to stay with Meryl. I know I speak for a good number of them when I say – we better get Amy back or there will be hell to pay.

Anyway, the switch up is mildly relevant to this post because the voting for it could play spoiler in one couples hopes for the mirror ball trophy. I always wonder if fans who do the twitter voting are good multi-taskers.  I know I am, but Vogue says it’s cuz I’m a Gemini…or something like that. :-D Anyway, there is some serious spamming going on. Like Design a Dance, it’s not the number of fans you have, but how badly those fans want you to win.  And how good they are at Spamming. Actually, that could be said for the whole show.  :-)  So, do we think that someone is going to be a shocking elimination because their fans were too busy tweeting?? Amy? Meryl? Danica? Nene?

I put those four out there because the Derek fans and the C-bros plus Tony fans have been hitting it hard on the twitter vote. Amy has the smallest fanbase on her own, but Derek’s fanbase is the biggest of the pros, judging by Twitter followers.  I would hazard that Meryl is safe, but it’s possible any of the other three could be a victim, I suppose.

But let’s look at the scores and see just how likely that is.

Week 2 Table 1

Dang, they put a huge spread between Billy Dee and the next lowest group comprised of Nene, Drew and Candace.  The judges REALLY want to get rid of him. Well, he was not a great dancer. Entertaining, but not great. And oh my gosh am I developing a straight girl crush on Emma or what? She impressed the hell out of me in her work with Billy Dee – seriously, she’s fantastic.  Anyway, I think the judges have finally realized that if they believe someone is the worst dancer, they can’t be whipping out 6s and 7s left and right, they have to get serious. But where they serious enough??  Look at the table below, which gives you all the matchups for week 2.

Week 2 Table 2

You’ll see that Billy Dee needs a seemingly large number of votes to get past either Nene, Drew or Candace – about 24.6k votes per million votes cast. You might remember that he needed nearly 20k to stick around over Diana and Sean last week. What’s another 5k?  Well, I would hazard a guess that Drew and Candance, at least, are a good bit more popular than either Diana and Sean. But just how popular is Billy Dee??  Nene is the one I can’t put my finger on.  Twitter followers is certainly an indication of popularity, but that does NOT always translate into votes on DWTS. In fact, it often doesn’t.

I could be wrong, but I really see the only one vulnerable to Billy Dee  is Nene.  Why? Well, I think that Drew and Candace surely have enough juice to get past Nene and keep Billy Dee away.  But what about the next level up? Cody? Surely Cody has a shit ton of fangirls and he’ll be safe for a while, right? I think so – but note that Nene only needs 4k votes to go by Cody. Since I don’t think that Nene is doing that much better than Amy and Danica in votes, and Billy Dee certainly isn’t, I think those two, along with Meryl and Charlie are certainly safe. James best keep that score up there or he could be in trouble.

Anyway, no sense in drawing it out. I think that Billy Dee is likely to go home. If the Star Wars fans are out in full force, then I think Nene is the one most likely to leave. Candace wouldn’t shock me, neither would Cody since all the talk seems to be Amy/Meryl/Charlie – but I really think it’s going to be Billy Dee or Nene.  Billy Dee first, Nene second.  We find out soon!

March 28, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Heidi’s my name and numbers are my game. :-) Yes, it’s that time of year once again. I’d like to thank the powers that be for one thing: switching around how the eliminated couple is determined makes this much easier to predict. For one thing, I don’t have to backwards guess at what the judges might do next – it doesn’t matter because the viewer votes and the judges scores from the same week (week 1) will send someone home in week two regardless of how well they dance this upcoming week. For another thing, it makes these posts much shorter. Theoretically. :-)  The interesting thing will be is if the judges show a pattern of either extremely over scoring or extremely underscoring the couple going home – either send them out with a bang, or justify their scores ahead of time. Two or three times might be coincidence, but more than that? Hah.

Anyway, for you newbs to this site, this is a series I do every week of every season. Basically, I take the scores for each couple and figure out – using DWTS math – how many votes each couple needs to be safe. Then I guess, based on what I think I know about each couple and their voting needs, who’s going to be safe and who’s hitting the trail.

For those who don’t know…or those who believe the popular myth promoted by TPTB…the judges AND the viewers have an equal role in who stays and who goes. To determine who goes home, the producers take the total number of points handed out by the judges and divide that into each couples score for their percentage of the total.  They then do the same thing for the votes: they divide the total number of votes into the number of votes each couple receives for a percentage. They then add the two together and the couple with the lowest combined “score” is the one who goes home. Fifty percent of the final score is judges and fifty percent of the final score is viewer votes. Easy peasy. ;-)

Take a look at the totals. Read more..

March 20, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 10 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. As I said last week, if you score normally, and don’t make the margin between the upper tier of dancers super tiny, then you stop having “shocking” eliminations. It only took them ten weeks to figure it out. Or maybe Leah had just served her purpose of getting more famous people in the audience.  Either way, she was eliminated and it didn’t take much for that to happen. Here are the judges scores for both dances – those in grey are my predictions…well, my second set of predictions. :-) I wasn’t sure which way they were going to go with. Glad they selected option number 2. :-)

Table 1

These scores led to the following vote requirements.

Table 2

Note that in week 9, the margin between Leah and Liz was less than 7k votes. This week, when they aren’t over inflating everyone’s score trying to get rid of Bill, Leah needed well more than 17k votes per million votes cast to get to Jack, Amber or Corbin. Here’s what caused her to be eliminated – all of the following happened: Read more..

November 23, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, well, well…sometimes I’m right and I don’t want to be. I said way back when at the beginning of the season that both Christina and Liz were possible early eliminees (along with Brant) but once Christina was gone I had hoped that Elizabeth could make it to the end. Afraid not. She seemed like a nice woman but she just wasn’t getting the votes and her time ran out. She and Christina are the Season 17 equivalent to Kristin and Chynna – only both women lasted longer this season, probably due to better dancing on their part.

Once again we are in a situation of having no real idea of how either Bill or Leah (or any of the rest of them) are doing in terms of votes. It’s a mystery. And it will likely continue to be very interesting because I think Derek had it right when he said that the votes occurring the week before makes it more unpredictable.  Like I said before, last season if you make it through a bad week, you’ve made it through period. But this season, if a bunch of people didn’t like your dance this past week and didn’t vote for you, you have NO chance to redeem yourself – they can’t come out this Monday and do a killer dance such that everyone votes for them and be safe. They can get the great scores, but if people stopped voting for them because their dances just weren’t good last week, then it might not matter. What happened week 8? Well, that’s when Liz changed the choreo at the last minute on Val, against his wishes and it resulted in less than stellar dancing. And clearly, she couldn’t afford that.

Let’s take a look at the scores and the votes needed this past week.

Table 1

Table 2

So, Bill took a step back this week in terms of dancing – will it cost him this coming Monday? What about Amber – everyone knows she’s injured, but what if her time is up? And will they continue to desperately overscore Leah to keep her in the game?? Because, really, when you look at the math it becomes obvious that MAYBE if they had kept it real on Leah, that Liz might still be there.  No one can make a claim, for sure, that their couple is getting a ton of votes because EVERYONE except Corbin beat a margin to get past Liz in terms of votes. Which means she likely wasn’t getting any. Here’s what happened that lead to Liz’s elimination. ALL of the following happened: Read more..

November 16, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)