Here we are, week 4 going into week 5 and the scoring wasn’t too horrendous. There was one glaring error in what was otherwise a relatively decent scoring/ranking by the judges and that was Willow’s 39. Now, don’t get me wrong. I like Willow. I liked the dance. My comments on the dance weren’t on the dance quality but the fact that I had hard time following it with all the other dancers involved. In terms of dance quality, I defy anyone to convince me (won’t happen) that Willow’s dance was 3 points better than that amazing AT from Nastia or 4 points better than Rumer’s Waltz-ish dance. Was Willow on par with Nastia and Rumer?? Sure, I would buy that. She did a damn good job, in spite of my problems with the production. But 3 or 4 points *better*?? Um, no. Especially when you consider that there are fewer strict rules in a contemporary routine, which means it’s marginally easier to do. Even if you claim that “Nastia is boring” or “Rumer is one note” that still doesn’t equate to 3 or 4 points difference. Or it shouldn’t. Read more..
Now is when it starts to get real. No more low hanging fruit to be picked off – at least not in my opinion. This is a week where I start off writing this post really not sure what’s going to happen. The scoring didn’t seem too crazy – keeping in mind that I missed Michael’s dance and haven’t gone back yet to watch it. The rest of it seems pretty reasonable. Chris is higher than I expected, so I guess Witney toning down the choreo to his level (which is what you’re supposed to do, really) paid off. Part of me wonders if the judges thought he was going home and were being kind. In any case, if I were ranking the couples, this is probably what I would have come up with, based on Monday night. Read more..
Well, DWTS Season 20 Week 2 is in the history books and it was a pretty good week. There was nothing that made me snort in disgust (from the judges, anyway) and a whole bunch of pretty darn good to great dancing.
But, as usual, someone has to go home on Monday night. Last week I was pretty clear when I said “Either Charlotte or Redfoo” and said my number 1 choice for most likely to be eliminated was Charlotte. I was pleasantly surprised to find that she was safe – most likely by 0.10 percent. No, I don’t believe Suzanne was a real bottom 2. For her to be a real bottom 2, it meant that Charlotte got nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than her and that Redfoo did nearly that much – and there ain’t no way you’re convincing me of that. Nope. I think that’s highly unlikely.
Now, normally, I would automatically assume that Charlotte was definitely the next to go. But I’m not so sure that’s true. Why? Well, let’s look at all the scores. Read more..
So sorry that this has been much delayed this week – I’m still trying to catch up from my whirlwind trip to New York City. If anyone cares, I saw Book of Mormon, New York Spring Spectacular (twice) and Wicked. All were tremendous. As I was telling someone on Twitter, Derek actually sings as much as he dances in this show and that was a real treat. Great voice on that boy. My favorite line from the very sacrilegious Book of Mormon?? “Jesus thinks you’re a dick.” OMG, I laughed and laughed and laughed. Read more..
Okay, for those of you claiming scores don’t matter, this should be a lesson to you. Yes, this is me saying I told you so. Including you, John. There was a little more than 5k between Bethany and Janel and Janel had the second lowest combined score. It is VERY possible that Janel got fewer votes than Bethany and still advanced to the finale. This is why the overscoring crap actually works. Another lesson? That once again huge, young fanbases don’t necessarily vote. Although Bethany did FAR better than many younger celebs dancing on the show. Closer to Zendaya than Cody.
Now I have ten bucks that Janel is going on tour. Talk about yer motive for the pimpage. Good thing I’m not buying tickets. I would like to see Mark sing though – dude, call me and let me know what you hook up.
Anyway, fairly sure that they were called safe in actual order, particularly since Beth was eliminated and Janel was in the real bottom two – loved the shock on Val’s face. Yes, it is that rare that he makes it farther than Derek, despite having a ringer every season except one. Totally called the bottom two, unfortunately. Wrong person went home, but that’s how it goes sometimes.
I suspect that they were also ranked in order of how they will finish by the judges. Read more..
Wow. The last week. The second to last numbers post until March. Yay!! I will hopefully be able to whip up a numbers post on Monday night after those scores have come in and will take into account whichever screwy way they decide to count the votes.
Anyway, their convenient ranking of the contestants the other night makes it harder to call than you might think. I’ve been of the opinion for quite some time that Janel is the low vote getter of the people left standing (hell, maybe she got less votes than Tommy, but who knows). But the scores are equally important and the question is: is she getting enough votes to prevent Sadie, Bethany and Alfonso covering the spread? That’s the big question.
Between the very young fanbase of Bethany (less likely to vote) and the broad appeal of Sadie and Alfonso, is Janel’s score enough?? Well, it will be an interesting Monday night. Maybe. What I mean by that is – when will they eliminate the fourth place person, Monday night or Tuesday? Last season, according to Wiki, they eliminated James on Monday night after all the dances. Bill Engvall was eliminated on Monday night. Aly was eliminated on TUESDAY. However, Aly’s season was the last one where there was a regular Tuesday night show. So, it should be Monday night – but the producers of this show have a tendency to change things around to suit their purposes.
But for right now, we’re going on the assumption of a Monday night elimination, which makes these scores pretty important.
Well, as you can see the percentages are pretty close together, which means not a lot of votes will be needed for someone to get beat.
See, this is why it’s tough. There hasn’t been a real bottom two all season. Janel and Sadie have been the last woman standing on a couple of occasions –sometimes that means something and sometimes it doesn’t. It never means anything during the semi-final and finals nights, so that leaves Sadie and Janel each with one instance of being the last person called safe. Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated two weeks later. Jonathan was last to be called safe and was eliminated two weeks later. Michael was last to be called safe and was eliminated four weeks later (thanks to goofy eliminations). Tommy was last to be called safe and was eliminated two weeks later. Janel was last to be called safe four weeks ago and was handed bogus immunity two weeks later, and was wildly overscored the two weeks after that. Interesting. Sadie was last to be called safe the last two weeks, but as I said, it doesn’t usually mean anything in the semi-final. That may be true for the quarter final as well, but I can’t remember and I’m too lazy to go look it up.
So, does this mean that either Sadie or Janel are going to be eliminated Monday night? Well, no, not really. We don’t really know if jeopardy means anything in a given season until that season is completely done. But, we’re pretty close right now. Based on this knowledge, and the fact that he’s awesome, I’m going to bet that Alfonso is safe on Monday night.
That leaves us with the three ladies. Now, I think it’s fairly clear that Bethany has the largest actual following from BEFORE DWTS. And I kind of feel like Sadie’s gotten the lion’s share of the average viewer. Which kinda leaves Janel out in the cold.
Sure, I would like to see Janel eliminated, but that’s just to hack off Val. Really, if you’ve made it to the finale, there’s winning and losing. Unless you’re holding the trophy at the end, you lost – does it matter what place you got? Not really. All that just to say that I don’t really care if Janel gets fourth or third. And to also say that if Bethany isn’t holding the MBT at the end (and she won’t be), who cares ifshe gets fourth or third or second??
All that to also say that I’m not really sure who it’s going to be on Monday night. My instinct is that Alfonso and Sadie will be the last two standing. Let’s look at the voting requirements:
Now, it could come down to Sadie and Janel or Bethany and Janel. But look at those vote requirements. I think that Sadie beats all three of them with the possible exception of Alfonso. Then Alfonso beats both Bethany and Janel. Then Bethany beats Janel. Now, that’s the very short version, but if you followed it, that means Janel is eliminated.
BUT, it’s entirely possible that Sadie only beats Janel in with the above scores. Doesn’t matter, right, because it’s likely that Alfonso beats Bethany and Janel and Bethany beats Janel, which means Janel goes home. But what if Sadie isn’t beating Janel, since that more than 10k could be a stretch??
I’m confusing myself now. Simpler version – how is Janel eliminated. If ALL of the following happen:
- Sadie gets 11k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
- Alfonso gets 8,300 more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
- Bethany gets 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Janel.
See, those are not huge numbers, but the number between Sadie and Janel does worry me a tiny bit. How is Sadie eliminated?? If ALL of the following happen:
- Sadie fails to get the 11k more votes per million votes cast than Janel, AND;
- Sadie fails to get 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
- Sadie fails to get 2,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alfonso.
Finally, how is Bethany eliminated?? If ALL of the following happen:
- Sadie gets 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
- Alfonso gets 2,800 more votes per million votes cast than Bethany, AND;
- Bethany fails to get 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Janel.
Now do you see why it’s so hard? None of those numbers are huge. In looking at all three combinations, it strikes me that, initially, it looks like eliminating Janel is the hardest thing to do. But then look at Beth and Sadie – it seems like Janel has an easier road, but when you look at Sadie’s set, it seems to me that she could beat Alfonso and Bethany with those numbers, but it’s also a bit hard. Then you look at Bethany and it doesn’t seem like it would be hard for her to beat Janel even if Sadie and Alfonso are beating her.
That is why I keep coming back to Janel. Sadie might not beat Janel, but she beats Bethany (theoretically) so she’s safe. Sadie might beat Bethany, but I think Bethany beats Janel so SHE’S safe. And that leaves Janel out in the cold.
But remember, I only have to be wrong by a TINY bit for someone else (either Bethany or Sadie) to go home.
At the end of the night, I think Janel will be eliminated. If not Janel ,then Bethany. Third choice is Sadie.
ETA: In re-reading what I wrote last night when I was exhausted from traveling, I felt I needed to make a couple things clear and add a note. First – while I think it will come down to Janel and one of the other girls, they may not SHOW that. IF Janel is safe on Monday night, expect to see her called safe first and see Bethany and Sadie standing next to each other under the red light of doom. Either Bethany or Sadie COULD be ahead of Janel in the finish, but if they are really interested in pimping Janel to the trophy, they will call her safe first. It’s a subtle form of manipulation.
As for the note? Well, I wasn’t really clear in the point that while I think Bethany had the largest fanbase coming into the show, that fanbase is typically one that is less inclined to vote and could easily be offset by the general public, who I think are voting for Alfonso and Sadie. That is why I think that Bethany won’t do better than 3rd place. I’d be happy to be wrong.
Okay, we’re finally to the point of the competition where things could get interesting. But probably not. Yet. Why? Well, we find out once and for all if Tommy’s fanbase is all that.
I’m not going to talk much about the scoring this past week – I think I’ve made my feelings abundantly clear. Whole lotta work going on to make sure that Tommy doesn’t go to the finals – and that Janel DOES go to the finals. Could say the same for Sadie, I guess, since she clearly forgot the choreo and if we complain about mistakes being overlooked for one contestant, I guess we have to do the same for the other. Thing is, I can’t get too worked up about Sadie because she forgot – you wouldn’t have known if you were watching just her and not Emma. It wasn’t a flub as much as an ad lib, if that makes any sense. I can actually believe, in her case, that the judges didn’t see it. They clearly did see in Janel’s case – and didn’t care.
Anyway, still peeved but moving on. Really tough row to hoe this week for Tommy. I’ll be very curious to see if he makes it or not. Let’s take a look at the scores.
Miniscule points between the top four – huge points between first and last place. And I really can’t argue with it too much. Love Tommy and Peta very much – but he’s not the dancer that the others are and he knows it.
But what does he have to do to stay?
It will take a minute, here, to explain why if Tommy is killing it in votes it will be Janel who suffers. I think. The next lowest person is Sadie, but…
As you can see, Sadie only needs 2,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bethany. I have no idea if she’s managing that or not. I think she’s getting a ton of votes, but it all depends on if Bethany’s Motavators are all voting. If they are…well, still hard to say. But it doesn’t matter. Why? Because I would wager that both girls are beating Janel handily. There’s tiny margins once you get higher than Tommy on the leaderboard. Here’s Bethany’s chart:
Now, Sadie only needs 9,400 votes per million votes cast to beat Janel or Alfonso. Don’t know if she’s managing it with Alfonso, but I would bet she is beating Janel. That’s why it doesn’t matter if she’s beating Bethany at this point – she’s beating Janel (I believe) and I think that Bethany is also beating Janel, since she only needs roughly 7,010 more votes per million votes cast.
Alfonso only needs ONE more vote per million votes cast to beat Janel and do I think he’s getting that? Of course.
So, what I think that all means is that Sadie is beating Janel, Bethany is beating Janel and Alfonso is beating Janel – which means it could well come down to Janel and Tommy as the bottom two.
So, who will go home? Well, I think Tommy will because as much as I think he is raking in votes, he would have to get nearly 47k more votes per million votes cast to beat Janel. That’s a lot of votes.
Before anyone asks, yes it has been done before. Kurt Warner got about that many (49k?) to send Audrina Patridge (who was at or near the top of the leaderboard) home in week 6 of Season 11. There have been a few instances of contestants overcoming big numbers of votes to stick around. As I said at the time, it was not just that they were getting lots of votes, but that the person eliminated was getting few. Audrina (as Courtney and I predicted a couple week before she was eliminated) was one of those and for a long while, I believed Janel was one of those. Is she still? Well, usually this level of pimpage doesn’t work. But sometimes a gullible audience just now turning into the season buys it. But it’s always possible that they like the other contestants better. I will say that this is the first season in a while that I wasn’t SURE who would win. But I am pretty sure it will be neither Tommy nor Janel. Beyond that, the finish order is a toss up. Eveything will hinge on the scores.
So, I’m pretty sure that the wacky scoring this week did the trick and Tommy will sail off into the night. He’s had a great run and he’s given me a new appreciation for Peta. If it’s anyone other than him or Janel I will be mildly surprised, but not shocked. Three young girls with correspondingly young fanbases and you just never know what those kids are doing.
Where to start?
Yes, I do think that the scores were determined in advance by the judges because they wanted to keep Janel safe for another two weeks. Did they know it was necessary? Does it matter? I’m not sure the judges know, but at the end of the day, they underscored Sadie, in particular, relative to Janel. Janel’s dance was good, but if it was a dance worthy of a perfect score, so was Sadie’s and Alfonso’s – and Bethany’s for that matter. But perhaps those three don’t need the help, eh?
By giving Janel 43 points last week, they’ve essentially sent her all the way to the semi-finals based on one less than perfect dance. Saved her for last week AND this coming week. This way, it is likely they get their preferred finale of Alfonso, Sadie, Bethany and Janel – sucks to be Lea and Tommy, barring someone not getting the votes we think they are. The semi-final scoring will tell the tale. If Janel suddenly isn’t all that great, it means she ain’t getting the vote (like we suspect) – after all, the judges want to be RIGHT. They want their preferred finale, but in the end they want their scores to be close to how the votes are going. Pride.
Anyway, I can’t even work up any righteous indignation about this anymore. It’s so predictable. Young actress works for ABC = Semi-final, whether she deserves it or not. And really, she is dancing better than Lea right now – I just don’t *LIKE* her. Not only do I get stealth mean girl vibe, but that gross showmance she had going on with Val was just annoying after a season centered on an over the top showmance. Yuck.
But, on to the scores. Who’s got what and how much damage did the judges do this past week? Read more..
Well, it’s really interesting how the team dances make an already screwed up leader board even MORE screwed up. In what universe is Sadie below both Lea and Janel?? Cray cray universe, that’s which one. I can’t figure out what they have against that girl – and why they are so high on Lea. They have Lea as 4 points higher than Sadie in her individual dance – it’s’ times like this when I think that perhaps giving your celeb very simple choreo is an advantage. I’m not sure it should be. Mark went with a production and harder choreo and wasn’t rewarded at all for challenging Sadie AND teaching her to dance. Was she a little wobbly in spots? Sure – but she also had harder choreo.
I dunno. Don’t get me wrong – I love Lea too, but these oddities make me scratch my head. Because in the past, one of the requirements from the judges certainly seemed to be upping the challenge each week, if they were a good dancer. But, as usual, the rule that applies to some pros/celebs doesn’t apply to all. I was ready to be super pissed at Len, for example, when he started talking about production to Derek on a HALLOWEEN themed episode – but instead of giving Derek his usual 7, he gave him a 9. Shocker. But then we found out that Len was saving his true ire for Mark and Sadie. Granted, they had MORE production and the dance wasn’t quite as strong – but NINE points difference?? Lord have mercy, whose cheerios did Mark pee in? (Note to Mark fans: you should focus your silly hate on the people actually handing out scores…and here’s an idea, instead of trying to pull Beth’s score DOWN, you should be bitching to get Sadie’s score UP. Always, the focus on Derek when he had nothing to do with it. Stupid.).
As we have often speculated in the past, the one reason to low ball someone is for the storyline. Often a storyline that includes the lowballed celeb getting a shit ton of votes. This way, when they are safe…or even end up WINNING…everyone will be shocked. The audience will look at each other in wonder and say, “but she got low scores all the way up to week __ – that’s amazing she won!!” Because, folks, not everyone is really paying attention and some of the audience ain’t actually too bright (see: shippers). Where this becomes a problem is the other side of the stupid audience coin – sometimes constant lowballing leads the sheeple…I mean, audience to believe that that person is not as good a dancer as they actually are. There are people out there who actually believe the judges know what they’re talking about (gasp), when in reality, there is more that goes into their scores than actual dancing a lot of the time. Read more..
Well, this week is interesting. And hard. Why? Well, Michael got a 30. That makes several things uncertain. Is he the weakest dancer left? That’s debatable. Honestly, I don’t think either Tommy or Antonio is that much better than him, although Tommy is equally charming in my book. This puts Antonio at a disadvantage – it all hinges on his fanbase.
But then…some of you remember my analysis of “Jeopardy” I’m sure. Basically, if I remember correctly, about half the time, Jeopardy is actually an indication of who will be going home soon, but ONLY for the person last to be called safe. Usually two weeks after being put in jeopardy and being last to be called safe. This is NOT as true if you are in the semi-final. Anyway, Antonio hasn’t even been in jeopardy, has he? And he’s definitely never been last to be called safe. The other thing that was obvious from that analysis was that it’s hard to tell what their pattern is until the season is over. But, Jonathan was last to be called safe two weeks before he left. Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated in week 4. Michael has been last to be called safe a few times now. And Janel was last to be called safe this past week. Maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t. More likely it does for Michael in the near term.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages. Read more..