I was cranky (apparently) when watching the show last night, cuz I wasn’t terribly impressed by anyone – except Bethany and Sadie, CAI’s least favorite girls. Well, I should say I *loved* Alfonso’s dance as well, but I could see what the judges were talking about. Totally don’t understand why Sadie got totally hosed. I’m thinking I’ll have to rewatch it. I think she danced better – more personality, less mugging – than Janel, and Janel is the one with training. Even though we should be calling her JanelNotADancer because it’s not getting mentioned on the show. I did see Len on All Access right after the show and he seemed to be regretting some of his marks. He only mentioned overmarking Jonathan, but he wanted to say more. Maybe about Sadie since she had so recently danced??
Anyway, let’s take a look at the Scores and percentages:
Well, I don’t know who I would put in first place, but I’m not sure it’s Lea. I love Lea, she’s a beautiful dancer and woman – but when I can see posture problems and wonder why the judges are raving, you know you got problems. Anyway, she was in jeopardy last week so she may not be getting the votes. But I do think there is enough of a cushion for her to be safe to dance another day. I also think there is little chance of Alfonso, Sadie or Bethany going anywhere – not yet anyway. Janel is likely fine as well, although I’m afraid her time will come.
That brings us to the lower half of the leaderboard. Well, lower two-thirds? Antonio I think is likely fine, for now, but only because there is much bigger cannon fodder than him. I also can’t be the only one who finds Randy hot. :-) The low man on the totem pole, score wise, is Michael. While I agree with what many have been saying, about him not having quite the charm combined with more limited dance skill, part of me thinks that his onesie giving him a wedgie may have bought him two weeks, not just one. I could certainly be wrong, but I’m leaning toward Tavis. But let’s look and see what it will take for Michael to be safe:
See, this is where it gets tough. Michael may be more likeable than Tavis, but that four points translates to 11k votes per million votes cast. That is tough. But he has four different people to choose from when it comes to beating them. Problem is that a couple of them are really likable as well. I adore Tommy and I can’t believe he would be going anywhere. I also thought Betsey was great last night – but she’s a tad on the weird and wild side. Tavis just talks too damn much and I find him ponderous and a bit annoying. I doubt I’m alone.
So, for Michael to be safe, he needs ONE of the following:
– 11k more votes per million votes cast than either Tavis, Tommy, Betsey or Randy, OR;
– He needs about 16.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan…
…and so on, as shown in Table 2.
Personally, I think he’s only within striking distance of the 11k votes of the people directly above him. But I’ve been wrong before. :-) Let’s say that Michael is getting the votes – what do Tavis, Randy, Betsey and Tommy need to be safe??
Well, not very much at all. Each only needs ONE vote per million votes cast than the others in their little group, and all of them only need 5,525 more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan. Hell, Sadie and Antonio are in easy striking distance as well…if not for the fact of Tavis and Michael being down below them, I’d be worried for them. Bethany too. But, I don’t see anyone other than Randy, Betsey and Tommy MAYBE making the leap over Jonathan. See, the one drawback to hosing a pro (Allison – deserved or not) is that it generates sympathy votes.
Anyway, I think that Michael can only beat Tavis. I think that Tavis might beat Betsey, but I dunno. I don’t think he’s beating either Tommy or Randy, and I don’t think he’s catching Jonathan, Sadie or Antonio. I think the real bottom two is likely Michael and Tavis, but don’t be surprised to see Jonathan in jeopardy whether he’s really near the bottom or not. After Allison’s scolding and her speaking up in the Skybox, combined with the shock value of Betsey being safe again, I kinda look for the last three left standing to be Michael, Tavis and Jonathan.
There’s kind of a lot of weak dancers with great personalities, so I could be way off base here. At the end of the night, I think Tavis goes home. If it’s not him, then Michael. If there’s a shocker…Randy because he went so early in the night.