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Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Okay, so once again about half right/very close on the scoring. But the interesting thing is, I got the low scorer correct and one of the high scorers correct. Where I went wrong was once again underestimating Derek and his partner and assuming they would continue to give Brant more protection. They also didn’t seem to feel the need to protect Christina like I thought they would.  I find these things interesting. It either means that they’ve realized that Brant and Christina aren’t all that OR Valerie just wasn’t getting the votes like we thought. Or both.  It also appears that they’ve separated dancers into three distinct tiers, with Valerie out of the equation. Look at the scores: without Valerie, you have 21s, 24s and 27s. Only three scores, with three points between each one. Veeerry interesting. Coincidence?

Anyway, with a four point difference between Valerie and the next lowest person, how much protection did anyone really need? That’s quite a cushion for most everyone, in reality, possibly such that they could give everyone else a 21 or more and know that that was enough for Val to go home.  Let’s take a look. The table below represents the actual scores versus those I predicted. Under that are the votes that were required as a result of the scores for various people to be safe.

Table 1

Table 2 Read more..

October 10, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

This week, I saw lots of questions about Bill Nye’s departure from the show. Some said there was no way that others got more votes than him. To which I responded, “they didn’t have to, Bill could get more votes and still be eliminated if he didn’t cover the spread.” This is the thing that continually gets lost no matter how many times I write these numbers posts. Bill Nye was WAY below the next highest scorer, so HE had to make up lots of votes in order to stick around.

I saw some comments saying it was “fishy”. Was it fishy? Well, it certainly could be, depending on your perspective. I mean, really, Brant got a 27? I don’t think so, in a real world. There is no way he did a better job dancing than so many couples. But he most likely was in danger of leaving and was, thus, overscored to protect him from Bill Nye. You overscore Brant and make sure others who might not be getting the votes have enough of a lead on Bill Nye and it’s perfectly plausible that Bill goes home. How did the night stack up once all was said and done?? See below.

Table 1

Looking at that table, it seems to me that Brant was grossly overscored and Christina was overscored a bit, relative to Amber. Is it a coincidence that two people likely at risk due to Bill Nye but who are good dancers are overscored? I don’t think so. I think Liz is also in potential danger, but she danced very well, so I wouldn’t say she was overscored. Bill’s low score gives her breathing room. The people in danger, IMO, are scored high enough to put them out of reach, those who are getting votes are getting more realistic scores. Just my speculation. So, what did Bill Nye have to do to actually stay on the show and how did others have to do in terms of votes to be safe? See below. Read more..

October 5, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

So, I think we all know what happened this week, but let me spell it out anyway. The scores from weeks 1 and 2 were combined, then divided by the total points awarded to give each contestant a percentage. That percentage was  50% of the total. The votes after week 1 for each contestant were divided by the total votes and for their percentage, which was the other 50%. When you combined the two, the contestant with the lowest combined total goes home. Keyshawn was ranked lowest and was therefore eliminated.  How did the scores and percentages look when the two weeks were added together, you ask? See below.

Table 1

In a nutshell, Bill Nye got at least 7.7k more votes per million votes cast than Keyshawn, and Keyshawn could NOT get the 7.7k more votes per million votes cast that he needed to beat Bill E. But there’s something else interesting to note before we move on. Maybe it’s important and maybe it’s not. But look back at Table 1, above: note how my predictions on scores roll out. I did pretty well, getting it either exactly right or only off by 1 point on 7 of 12 couples. The next three couples I was off by 2 points. And only on two people, Leah and Snookie, was I off by three points or more. Is it a coincidence that the two people who I was way off on are the ones likely to be getting lesser votes (Leah) and more votes (Snookie)??  Leah was way overscored, IMO, and Snookie underscored. Do you think the votes they are getting, or not getting, have anything to do with this? Well, look at it this way. See Table 2, below. Read more..

September 26, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, this is going to be a bit different. With the exception of next week, the eliminations are going to be based on a given night’s judges scores and the previous week’s audience votes. As a result, I think Dancing by the Number is going to be a bit more predictive to the following week, as opposed to the following night.  But we’ll have to see how it all plays out. As I’m sitting down to write this, I’m not sure how it’s going to go. And I may do it differently next week. I’m flyin’ by the seat of my pants here. :-)

As I said, next week is supposedly going to be the exception. According to the press release that Vogue posted (probably days ago), the week two elimination is going to take into account the first two weeks of judges scores (50%) and this week’s viewer vote (50%). As a result, what you see now in terms of score could be substantially changed by the time next week rolls around, and the votes are based on what happened this week, so that has to be considered as well.

The immediate problem with this scenario and the longer range prediction that we’ll have to make is that you’re using future dances, as opposed to dances you’ve already seen. For that reason, I’ve taken the time to find out which celebs are doing what dance next week to help with my guessing.  Why? Well, it seems to me that Amber could have trouble with ballroom (who knows, using her as an example) while Bill Nye could excel at something like a Waltz. Knowing what dance they’re going to do should at least be considered when making your guess, in addition to the usual judge’s games.  Below is a list of who’s dancing what and my predicted score. Note, my scores are not like Marianya’s predictions – I’m doing mine based on the dance, the pro partner, how well they did this past week, how I think they’re likely to do based on the dance they’ve been given, ringer status and the judges crack smoking habits. :-) Read more..

September 18, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 16, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers

Please think about giving to Regional Food Bank, a local Oklahoma charity – I hear it’s good. If you don’t trust that, try the American Red Cross. My brother was hit by Katrina and raved about the Red Cross and everything they did in his community. Obviously, our thoughts and prayers are with those affected in Oklahoma. Thank you.

___________________________

Well, that’s that. Can’t say I’m sad this season is over.  Seriously, another twitter vote?? Why not just fess up and admit you want Zendaya to dance again cuz this is your last chance to pimp the crap out of her. Not even CLOSE to the best freestyle of the night, yet we’re likely going to have to see it again.  Absolutely ridiculous.  By the way, Tony Dovolani – you’ve been SCHOOLED on how to do a contemporary freestyle, my friend.  You too, Maks. Take notes.  Derek pretty much ruined contemporary for the rest of you on this show going forward. Read more..

May 21, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 16, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Okay, the scenario for Week 9 is underscore Zendaya for the first round and massively overscore her in the second round, putting her in fourth place. Clearly, Ingo can’t beat her in votes. He might be able to beat one of the others (Aly?), but he can’t beat her. So, she can handle the underscore in the first round for the DRAMA.

Actually, talking to Court on twitter and she and I disagree a tiny bit on Zendaya’s quickstep. I agreed with the judges: she’s still unsteady out of her turns and that first run, in particular, Val was dragging her.  He was dragging her a bit later in the dance as well. I don’t think she was underscored by a lot, but maybe a point. Here is where I am conflicted. IF she were dancing with Derek, they would be docked 2 or 3 points by Len for the Go Karts, the outfits and the fact that she is AGAIN wearing sneakers.  I mean, really?? If you can’t do the dances in heels like everyone else you should be docked.  But I HATE it when Len does it to Derek (and only Derek), and I don’t agree with it. BUT, if you’re going to do it to Derek – then you have to do it to EVERYONE. That’s the thing about this show – it’s so freakin’ uneven.  A 24? A bit low. I say 25, MAYBE 26. And that Hip Hop? SO over rated. And overscored. I mean, really? I expected SO much more. Maybe if I didn’t watch SYTYCD and she hadn’t been dancing hip hop since age 8…..And the judges are pimping her album during the critique?  Hey!!  Look!! They just jumped that there shark!!

I was actually impressed with Aly’s first dance AND she seems to be coming alive when talking – she’s losing that monotone, rehearsed sound to her comments. I don’t agree that it was worthy of a thirty, but I have to agree that she’s stepping up her game. The second dance?? It was not unique or particularly inspired – but it didn’t suck. I just don’t think it lived up to the hype that Mark was giving it. I appreciate that he was excited about it though, but after Shawn’s samba AND Bhangra last season I was a bit disappointed. Really, the in sync comments were galling on a her and Ingo both – does crack also may you see things in sync??

Jacoby won the night. Seriously. That was a great AT and his Lindy was fun as hell. I can’t argue with his scores at all. Fantastic. Loved him. Was laughing out loud at him once again. He makes me want to do an entire cheesecake devoted to just him (and Peanut in a fedora). :-)

Kellie – fantastic AT, as to be expected with Derek. I agreed with the judges on the Flamenco, as she did seem to tire out a bit. Still amazing and light years ahead of what Val did last season.  But Jesus…Derek was freakin’ AMAZING. I’ve never seen him dance like that. That was hot and spicy and incredibly difficult. Wow. I can’t wait to see him tap dancing in his movie (how’s THAT for pimping?). How in the hell do you do that with your feet??? I can’t even imagine. He pretty much put any other Flamenco to SHAME on this show.  As Court said on twitter – it’s a shame that Flamenco is the man’s dance like Paso. I could see one of those every season. Done right. ;-)

Anyway, where DO we stand??

week 9

Zendaya’s scoring is a bit of a red herring designed for Drama, I’m thinking. As I said earlier, I don’t think Ingo can touch her and really, that’s all that matters. You only have to beat one person. And the fact that they felt free to score her somewhat fairly (overall) tells me that the pimping has worked and she’s getting the votes. Maybe. Who knows?  Zendaya’s scoring tells me that Ingo is a goner. I’ll be shocked if it’s anyone other than him. What does Ingo need to do to stick around? He needs ONE of the following:

-        Ingo needs 10,700 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;

-        Ingo needs 25,000 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

-        Ingo needs 28,500 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Aly or Jacoby.

I don’t think he’s beating Zendaya. Kellie? Anything is possible. I’m still not sure that half of Derek’s fans haven’t said “f#$k it” and walked away in disgust last season. Eh, I doubt Ingo beats Kellie, regardless. I don’t see him catching either Aly or Jacoby either.

Let’s say a miracle happens and Ingo beats someone. Zendaya is next on the list. What does Zendaya need to be safe to next week? She needs ONE of the following:

-        Zendaya needs for Ingo to NOT get the 10,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-        Zendaya needs 14,300 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

-        Zendaya needs 17,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Jacoby or Aly.

I honestly have no idea if Zendaya’s youngsters are voting for her and/or if the general audience is voting for her or not. If it weren’t for the fact that they’ve been pimping the crap out of her all season, I would suggest a shocking elimination for Zendaya, but I don’t see that happening for her. I think it’s all “mission accomplished” at headquarters.

Let’s say that Ingo and Zendaya are safe. What does Kellie have to do to avoid a shocking elimination?? She needs ONE of the following to happen:

-        Kellie needs for Ingo to NOT get the 25,000 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-        Kellie needs for Zendaya to NOT get the 14,300 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-        Kellie needs to get 3,600 more votes per million votes cast than Aly OR Jacoby.

I have to believe that Kellie is beating Aly at this point, but who can be sure?? I really can’t make a call. I can only make ONE call and that is this:

Ingo be going home. I’m not even going to guess a second choice because I don’t see it…and if I did see it I can’t imagine who he might beat.

May 14, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 16, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, I have to say, I’m about over this show. Sooo predictable. Zendaya not at the top for a couple weeks, so we better make sure she’s there tonight. Kellie was at the top for a couple weeks, we better make sure she has a fall. Derek starts talking creatively, prepare for the stupid from Len. Oh, and now Sean has to be the new Andy. Did he dance great? No. But neither did Ingo. Certainly not worthy of the points separating them.

It makes me sad, actually. I nearly forgot to turn the TV on tonight.  I can’t work up too much indignation over Kellie’s Paso because I knew in advance that that was how it was going to go. It’s Zendaya’s turn to be at the top of the leaderboard. Did she have the best dances of the night? I don’t actually REMEMBER.

I’m bored. Heads up DWTS – you’re losing me.

Numbers week 8

Anyway, Sean is pretty much toast and I don’t see any way around it. Yes, Ingo has been in the bottom two before, but Sean is significantly below him in score and he’s been in the bottom two also. What would it take for Sean to be safe?? He needs ONE of the following:

-        Sean needs 19,300 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

-        Sean needs 32,200 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

-        Sean needs 41,800 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

-        Sean needs 45,100 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

-        Sean needs 51,500 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya.

Yeah, I don’t see that happening either. Now, his one hope, I think, is Ingo.  What does Ingo need to be safe tomorrow night? He needs ONE of the following things to happen:

-        Ingo needs for Sean to NOT get the 19,300 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Ingo needs 12,900 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

-        Ingo needs 22,600 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

-        Ingo needs 25,800 more votes per millon votes cast than Aly, OR;

-        Ingo needs 32,200 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya.

I would go on, but I’m bored. If I turn out to be wrong, I’ll do a follow up post. In a nutshell, I predict Ingo and Sean in the bottom two with Sean going home. If not Sean, then Ingo.  If Ingo avoids the bottom two, then Jacoby will be there, but I kind of doubt it.  We’re about at that time in the season where they stop doing a “bottom 2” and start reverting to the “in no particular order” spiel. I would not be at all surprised to see a Jeopardy final two standing. For example, them saying Sean, you’re in jeopardy….then saying the same thing to Jacoby or Kellie and Ingo. No mention of bottom two, but putting Sean against someone other than Ingo….for the sake of Drama.

And then Sean goes home. Or Ingo, if Sean is lucky.

May 7, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 16, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

I think this is probably the stupidest thing that DWTS has EVER done. Seriously – these dancers had to learn FOUR dances this week?? Some can barely do ONE dance. So, as a result, we see a bunch of weak dancing and some horrendous dancing. The top 3 – Kellie, Zendaya and Aly – were not nearly as good as they could have been. I saw a whole bunch of Derek Hough choreography from half the pros NOT named Derek Hough (but who were named Mark, Karina and Val) – can’t say I blame them, given the lack of time.  Dear lord – I think about what Kellie, Zendaya and Aly (and Jacoby) could have done with just ONE dance it just pisses me off. All could have been brilliant instead of just….good. In a couple cases, quite good.

To top it off – come on. That scoring was SO pre-determined and, in terms of Kellie, Aly and Zendaya, totally irrelevant. When you give Andy a 17, you have made your agenda clear. He was NOT that much worse than either Sean or Ingo, but you have your goals, don’t you judges.  The added benefit was, of course, Zendaya’s fans are pissed and highly motivated.  As I’ve come to call it, “Scenario #2” – the one that we discussed where they give Zendaya a 27  or 28 so when she kills the challenge she ends up with a 30 or higher – was likely part of the plan. Sooo freakin’ safe it isn’t even funny. Same for Aly. Oh, and speaking of the challenge – congrats Val, you earned the Chmerkovskiy name by being a total dick (sorry Andy) by saying you’re going to “pick on someone your own size”.   By the way – you are NOT a good Paso choreographer. That point has been made pretty strongly. Too much empty space…and, although not your fault, Zendaya’s age showed in her softer limbs. You should not talk them up ahead of time – it will always come back to bite you.

Karina? Foolish for letting Jacoby pick Jive – a Rumba would have been awesome.  Awesomely squicky which would have added a bit of ….something….to tonight. But something tells me that TPTB weren’t going to let that happen. Someone pre-determined that – either the pros or the producers.

Okay, I’m almost done ranting. I do wonder how they will work the cumulative score after this. Are they counting the three points? Because that would hose Kellie and Derek. But since half the cast got hosed last night, may as well include them.

Okay, now the questions: Derek apologized to his grandparents for taking off his shirt and said he didn’t want to – so….that begs the question: Why did he? Are the producers that into it that they asked him to? Also, how badly did they explain this immunity thing to the pros?? Derek looked shocked after the first challenge dance when he heard Tom say that they couldn’t be eliminated. Maybe he was just overly tired (Um, see the video from The W, in addition to his touring with Kellie – LOL), but Mark also looked like he didn’t know what the hell was going on, prior to doing their challenge dance. I sense….weirdness. To say the least.

:::sigh::: Anyway, the leader board looks like this. I left in Kellie and Derek’s score because I think they are likely included in the total since they were points awarded by the judges.  I just won’t talk about them in the contest of possible eliminations. If I don’t get too tired, I will look and see what difference those 29 points make in the spread.

week 7

So, as you can see, the immunity is likely not the least bit necessary when you have people in the 30’s and Andy with a 17.  Kinda ridiculous. As I said in an earlier post about this whole Immunity thing, it’s unlikely that it has any real impact on the top three ladies – the spread is too huge. It’s always possible that Zendaya’s fans aren’t voting in huge numbers, or Kellie/Derek’s fans have said “fuck it” after last season…or that Aly just got started too late…but with a 13 point spread (at minimum), it is unlikely that Andy is a threat to either Zendaya or Aly.

So why do it?? ADHD?? Andy getting too many votes? As I said way back when, I tend to think it has more to do with who’s getting too many votes, not who isn’t getting enough. But I guess you never know.

Anyway, what has to happen for Andy to be safe? He needs ONE of the following things:

-        Andy needs 38,100 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

-        Andy needs 43,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

-        Andy needs 54,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

-        Andy needs 70,700 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;

-        Andy needs 82,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly.

NOW do you see why the immunity is unnecessary??  Those are HUGE numbers. Seriously, even to get past Sean will be a stretch for Andy. And I think this is what they wanted all along. Sean and Ingo are both family, Jacoby is popular and the ladies can all dance really well. Andy has served his purpose. Next week is week 8 and he’ll be back in week 10. People will barely have time to miss him. Or so they think.

But what if all the Kellie fans who were voting for Andy had an impact? How much danger is Sean in? For Sean to be safe, he needs ONE of the following to happen:

-        Sean needs for Andy to NOT get the 38,100 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Sean needs 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

-        Sean needs 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

-        Sean needs 32,700 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;

-        Sean needs 44,500 more votes per million votes cast than Aly.

Sean and Andy have both been in the bottom two. Sean was in the bottom two with Victor even though Andy had lower score…but Andy only needed 8k votes to get past Sean.  This week the spread between Andy and Sean is as large as it was between first and last place last week – that’s huge. We have no idea if Andy has that kind of juice. He did get an assist from Kellie, who asked her fans to vote for him. We’ll see.

It’s going to be either Sean, Andy or Ingo – no question to me. I think it will be Sean and Andy in the bottom two with Andy going home. Ingo could take Sean’s place in the bottom two, if Sean gets the relatively small 5,500 votes he needs to get past Ingo.

But I don’t think Andy makes it past either Sean or Ingo, so he’s headed home. And that makes me sad. This is one of those weeks where I pray I’m wrong.

April 30, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 16, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

Such a weird night. First, they yank out the tens for one of Zendaya’s worst dances….it’s almost like they knew that Team Paso was gonna suck kinda hard. Then, Carrie Ann refuses to give up a 10 to Kellie and Derek, claiming that there was space between them, yet totally failing to note Zendaya’s again bad legs. They then totally hose Andy (and Len continues to be excessively mean to him), while being kind to Victor, who had a worse dance than Andy’s.

Weirdest of all – on paper, Team Paso should have had that dance in the bag. So, did they get over confident? Think they could skate by on bare chests (didn’t the same pros fail at that last season as well?)?? What?? I guess this just goes to show that if you are the weaker team and you have to be MORE creative in order to get past your weak dancers, you just DO.

It will be really funny when the team dance that sucked eggs (and looked like the poor man’s version of Derek/Brooke’s team paso at the end) wins the encore. LOL. Yeeeaaah. :-D

Anyway, how did our dancers do??

week 6

So…Victor is in deep doo doo. It will take a bit of a miracle to save him at this point. What does he need to get to be safe? Victor needs ONE of the following things to happen:

-        Victor needs 8,000 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, OR;

-        Victor needs 13,300 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

-        Victor needs 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Ingo or Sean, OR;

-        Victor needs 29,200 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;

-        Victor needs 32,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

-        Victor needs 37,200 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

Frankly, I don’t believe Victor gets any of those margins. His best bet is Andy and Andy was low scorer last week but was NOT in the bottom two. Victor, on the other hand, had two people below him in terms of score, but was still in the bottom two. Not looking good for Victor. At all.

But let’s say that Victor manages to pass someone. Andy is next in line in terms of judges score. What does Andy need to have happen in order to be safe? He needs ONE of the following:

-        Andy needs for Victor to NOT get 8,000 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Andy needs 5,350 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

-        Andy needs 8,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Ingo or Sean, OR;

-        Andy needs 21,300 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;

-        Andy needs 24,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

-        Andy needs 29,200 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

Now, I don’t think Victor is getting the 8k he needs…and I would be willing to bet that Andy is getting 8k more than Ingo. I just think that Ingo has worn out his welcome. But he was put in jeopardy last week and sometimes a guy gets a bounce after that happens. Will Ingo?? I dunno. My gut is saying no. I think, based largely on his bromance with Tristan and how funny he was about that, Sean is likely safe this week.  I think it will come down to Victor, Ingo and Andy.

What does Ingo (or Sean) need to have happen in order to be safe?? Ingo (or Sean) needs ONE of the following things to happen:

-        Ingo needs for Victor to not get the 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Ingo needs for Andy  to not get the 8,000 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Ingo needs for Jacoby to NOT get the 2,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Ingo needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

-        Ingo needs 13,300 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;

-        Ingo needs 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

-        Ingo needs 21,300 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

Okay, so based on all of the above, I think the following happens:

-        Ingo and Sean aren’t touching Jacoby and he’s safe, easily getting 2,700 more votes per million votes cast than each of them;

-        Andy gets 8k more than Ingo and Victor can’t catch him and is, therefore, safe;

-        Ingo is getting beat by Sean, Jacoby and Andy, but there is no way that Victor is getting 16k more votes per million votes cast….

-        Therefore, Victor goes home.

Seems like a simple math problem this week, but I could be wrong. I was starting to wonder if perhaps Zendaya wasn’t getting the votes, as badly as they overscored her Cha Cha, but I’m also wondering if they put her just far enough down to be safe while rallying her fans to vote like the little maniacs they are.

Doesn’t matter, IMO.  I think it will either be Victor and Ingo or Victor and Andy in the bottom two and Victor will go home.

I’m saying it will be Victor and Ingo in the bottom two and Victor goes home.

April 23, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 16, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Okay, that turned out somewhat better than expected. For all the pimping of Maks, he ended up being a non-event – for me, anyway.  It’s rather odd, actually. I guess when you have nothing better to pimp, pimp one of the pro dancers who’s known for being a “bad boy” who’s not on this season. Ummmm…okay. I guess TPTB are just pandering to one group or another all the damn time. For those extremist Maks fans who read this site just so they can complain about us (yeah, it makes no sense to me either), the ratings were up LAST week, so if they are up again this week? Get over yourselves…it’s a trend, not an aberration. Reminds me of the Twihards who claimed they were tanking the MTV Awards this year by not watching…and they were actually UP significantly. Don’t jack with numbers, man. :-)

Mah goodness, my favorites of the night were Jacoby and Kellie – fantastic. Loved it. Zendaya is being soured for me by the pimping…and seriously? The bent legs, the instability coming out of the turns…if this girl were dancing with Derek she’d be getting hosed for being a ringer. And we’d be getting trolls out the wazoo.  But since she’s dancing with Val she essentially has rainbows shooting out her ass.  The girl is a good dancer, yes. And I like her as a person. But I have to tell you, I’m seeing a LOT of people in the comments here and on twitter who are getting REALLY good at predicting exactly what will happen. Up for 2 weeks, down for two weeks…to come roaring back to get two tens. Hello – we’ve seen this storyboarding before.  I expect someone else will get a perfect 30 next week – either Aly or Kellie, most likely. Because we have to keep it a horse race at all costs, so it can’t be Zendaya. And, as predicted, Zendaya and Val get the encore.

In the “credit where credit is due” department – Kick ass opening dance, Lacey Schwimmer!! Excellent. Loved it. Girlfriend has been honing her group choreo skills over there in Vegas and it’s paid off.  MUCH better job than Sharna did last week on the women’s number, although Lacey has the benefit of time and no celeb partner. And Sharna is doing great with Andy.

Anyway….how did our dancers do?? Read more..

April 16, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)