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PureDWTS Season 19, Week 5 – Partner Switch Predictions!

So there’s a few hours left to tweet your votes for the partner switch in week 5, but we thought we’d go ahead and try to predict who’s gonna end up with who based on the tweet counts from Topsy.  Last season, we tried using Keyhole (a much more comprehensive method of measuring the frequency of tweets), but since TPTB basically gave everyone the middle finger and did whatever they wanted with the results of the partner switch voting, we didn’t really want to spend the money to try and do that again. So Topsy will have to do for now :-) And while it would be great to be able to measure the switch voting being tweeted from the ABC website, there’s no really good way to do it – so for the sake of simplicity, we’re just going to assume that the voting from the ABC website is probably mirroring whatever the people manually tweeting are doing.

A quick explanation as to how the votes are tallied: they start with the highest vote-getting combination of any of the possible combinations, and begin pairing off down the list of vote totals until everyone has a partner (that isn’t their original partner, mind you).   So using this methodology, even if Janel’s highest vote-getting combo is with Mark, she may not actually end up with him if he has a higher vote total with another contestant.  Likewise, even if Betsey doesn’t have the highest vote-total with Artem, she may get him because his other high vote-getting combos have already been taken.  Make sense? We also tried to take into account any nicknames that the pros and/or celebs have, as both might count (i.e. Val and Valentin, Beth and Bethany, etc.).

Some random observations that we made when looking at the totals: like last year, a helluva lot more people seem to care about who the male pros end up with, than the female pros.  It’s a bit sad, actually – almost every single combination that had a male pro’s name in it had totals in the thousands, while only a handful of the combinations with female pros’ names in them even broke into the thousands.  I’m guessing the Ballas/Hough vs. Chmerkovskiy Entourage rivalry is fueling that one, and Rob Wade & Co. are laughing all the way to the bank.  Also interesting: if the partner switch voting has any sort of correlation with the actual voting done to keep couples in the competition, than Lea may have a lot more people voting for her than we originally assumed – likewise, assuming the same correlation, Janel may not have as many people voting for her as we may have originally assumed.  Food for thought. Read more..

October 6, 2014 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 1 Score Predictions

Here you have it folks the first predicted scores of the season… You didn’t think I’d forget did ya? Well I thought I did, since I seem to have forgotten that the start of the season was today! Geez, you’d think I would have this on my calendar somewhere.

Anyway… after looking at the dances that are scheduled for the first week I realized that my typically spreadsheet data is going to be thrown into the dumpster because everything has gone astray! don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself…
DWTS16-Week1Predict
I can’t even rank them! Ugh…

So I don’t know what to do… at least at the moment. I am tempted to just do the score prediction and not even bothering with how they rank because contemporary is such an outlier and out of box concept for ballroom dancers that it just doesn’t seem quite fair.

Grr grr grr…

. . .

Ah well… let’s see how this first week pans out before I really throw in the white towel… I am sure in the coming weeks something will reveal itself so I could provide the best calculations I know for you guys to enjoy.

Maybe I do have to include Season 15 afterall… gosh darn… it.

March 18, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Pre-Season Predictions – Eliminations

Yay I’m back!… Well kind of… ;-) I apologize for the delay but I had this post completed when the initial cast announcements happened and then… life got in the way? Well I don’t really have a good idea or reason for that, but what can I do? And when I was ready to post it was a week off from the “Sean Lowe” announcement and so I just added him to the mix and completely forgot about the post again… Yes shoot me. So now you get two posts from me today… the first would be the following distribution and the second being the actual Predictions for the first week of scores.

Taking the above into account, a part of me was really considering about sitting this season out, I mean I got burned out last season when TPTB really threw a lot of curve balls to my spreadsheets and predictions that it got to the point that I just kind of threw in the towel because of the ridicuolous-ness of it all. And when I heard wind of TPTB putting contemporary and jazz into the mix… well let’s just say that I was not happy at all.

But… it’s a new season, and after the cast announcement I realize that I am familiar with at least half of the cast and as thus I probably should follow along for the ride.

So this is what I’m going to do… There are going to be two tables (since the blog space is not wide enough to do what I REALLY want to do) the first will be the rankings broken down by the following categories:
Professional Partner
Occupation
Age Group

The second table will then reflect how each of the celebrities are grouped in those categories.

Now… I really had to think long and hard about this one… at the moment I decided NOT to add in the scores and data from the All-Star Season (Season 15). Why? Mainly because I consider that data to be skewed in a lot of ways. You have old partnerships, new partnerships, strange dances, all the celebrities knew what they were getting into which changes what could happen through the season… There were just way too many variables than a “normal” season for me to even consider using the data.

However, if the demand to see how the below rankings would change with the inclusion of the All Star Season, I’ll consider it…. time-permitting of course.

CELEBRITY
PROFESSIONAL
OCCUPATION
AGE GROUP
FINAL RANKING
Aly Raisman
3
2
1
1
Jacoby Jones
5
1
3
2
Kellie Pickler
1
6
3
3
Zendaya
12
4
1
4
Ingo Rademacher
4
5
7
5
Dorothy Hamill
6
2
11
6
Sean Lowe
7
9
3
7
Victor Ortiz
9
8
3
8
Wynonna Judd
8
6
7
9
D L Hughley
2
11
7
10
Andy Dick
9
11
7
11
Lisa Vanderpump
11
9
11
12

Any surprises? Confusion? Well… let’s a look at how I am grouping them this season… then I’ll explain a couple of things.
Read more..

I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 9 Predictions

Oh Em Gee… Week Nine? The Semi-Finals and we have five couples left in the competition? It is interesting to know that in a week it is the finals and then we have to wait til March for the new season of Dancing with the Stars. Not a bad thing mind you but… anyway.

Since I am at a time crunch I am going to just provide the data, some tidbits that I know and let you guys draw your own conclusions:

Below is the table of the predicted scores. As to be expected we don’t really have all that information for the “chosen” dances but for my sanity let’s just focus on the dances that we do know of…


If the predictions are to be believed (and the score from approximately the same time frame in the original seasons) then the top three couples would include Shawn/Derek, Apolo/Karina and Melissa/Tony which would be just fine by me (and probably most other people).

So let’s look at how the scores worked out last week:
Read more..

November 19, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 8 Predictions

Yay the Trio Challenge **rolls eyes**. ANYWAY As always take the below table with a grain of salt:


Now for the eighth week of competition in Season 8: Melissa originally received a 21 because she was injured that week and as thus her score was based off of the dance rehearsal footage taken earlier that day (or weekend).

I find it rather interesting that Emmitt is the only one that has not done either one of the dances that he is assigned this week in his original season.

Kelly Monaco did the Viennese Waltz as a group dance in her season but it was not scored.

Now… throughout the week last week people were asking what the cumulative scores were up to that point… so I decided to provide the following table for your information only:
Read more..

November 12, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 7 Predictions

GAH! I am so confused with this season… >.<

So a few words of warning... since I am using scores from the season prior to that of Season 15, those fusion dances that include the tango (Melissa/Tony and Shawn/Derek or Mark) where the celebrity did not dance the tango in their original season I substitute for the Argentine Tango... just so I don't have a lot of blank scores all over the place.

Since at last rumor in accordance to Heidi’s Who is Dancing What When… Mark appears to be dancing with Shawn Johnson I created the following table to reflect that:

But let’s compare that table to the rare possibility that Derek would be able to dance with Shawn this week:

Anyone noticed that? I think it is pretty clear that with Derek, Shawn would have a slightly higher chance of being towards the top of the leaderboard than with Mark (provided that no storyboarding is going on). Then again…

Yes I know that Kirstie has done the quickstep below… however aside from Season 15, has anyone in their 60s completed the quickstep in the latter part of the season? From what I have been able to see I do not believe so… but I am only human.

And of course since this is the first time that Valentin Chmerkovskiy has made it past Week Four so any pro data is out the window for him. **Sighs** Season 15 the bombs to my spreadsheets… :)

November 5, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 5 Predictions

After taking a week off (I actually flew out to New York two weekends ago) and as thus wasn’t able to rework my spreadsheet in time for the predictions of Week 4. But I am back and raring to go with Week 5 predictions.

So without further ado… here are the predictions that you were missing last week (with thanks from Heidi for putting together who is dancing what):

Since we are heading towards what I call the “middle third” of the season the only scores from the previous seasons that I will be focusing on will be those from Weeks 4 thru 7. Because of this breakdown… in the case of Peta she has done a Rumba before but in the first few weeks of Season 13 with Donald.

Consequently those celebrities in their 60s have done a Quickstep but again only in the first two weeks of their season… so to stick with some sort of accuracy I chose not to include those scores.

However, with those missing scores it seems rather odd for Kirstie to be placed so high (though it could be possible) while Melissa is placed so low… Again as proven in past prediction posts… they tend to be a crap shoot… so take the above with a grain of salt.

In the meantime let’s look at how the scores went at the end of the day for Week 3 and (from what is available in Week 4).
Read more..

October 22, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Week 3 Predictions

This is going to be an off week on so many levels… I can just sense it. So I am going to apologize for the tardiness of last week and this week’s votes… Looking at the calculations and predictions this week (as always many thanks to Heidi for finding out Who is Dancing What:

I am actually surprised that Tony Dovolani has not done a Samba this early in the competition. That can’t be right. Well I looked at the past seasons and the earliest that Tony has done a Samba was in Week 5… which for the purposes of the predicted calculations would not be used as Week 5 is considered to be the middle of the seasons and not early.

To be honest I am surprised that Drew Lachey is ranked so low while Bristol Palin *shudders* is placed high. I guess we are going to have to see.

Taking a look at last week’s scores and comparing them with the original predictions:

As you can see the numbers when you compare the predictions to the actual are all over the place. Thus another reason why one cannot use past data for such a subjective sport. However, when one would look at the original scores (when averaged up) what I found to be interesting is that for the most part the rankings of the original scores were similar to the overall rankings of the actual scores. Sure there were a few anomalies here and there (Drew Lachey being the major one), but at least there is some consistency going on.

Like I said before, I apologize for the delay in the posts from last week and this week… and I hope to be more up to date after this week… so bare with me in the meantime.

If I were going to guess at who would most likely be going home based on what I know thus far… with Helio and Drew having already been at the Bottom Two, and this week being a double elimination… It is hard to say. However considering that both Drew and Helio are predicted to be the in the bottom three lowest scoring couples (with Kirstie) my best bet would be on one of them. Helio is most likely to go due to his predicted early eliminiation. Kirstie and Drew are also possibilities at this point based entirely on predictions, even though I would honestly love to see Bristol go too.

So I would bet on Helio going with a toss up between Drew and Kirstie… and Bristol as a wish list elimination.

October 8, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Week 2 Predictions!

As always many thanks to Heidi for this weeks’ Who is Dancing What and When post.

From Heidi’s post here is how the couples will stack up in accordance to past data:

As expected only Peta Murgatroyd and Valentin Chmerkovskiy have yet to work on their respective dance this early in the season. (Peta has worked on the Jive with Donald Driver in Week 8, but for purposes of calculating the prediction scores I chose not to use scores from later in the season when predicting for earlier in the season)

Much like last week, half of the celebrities have danced the same dance in the same week… it will be interesting to see how the scores compare to tonight’s scores on those cases.
Read more..

October 1, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Season Premiere (Week 1) Predictions!

UPDATE: So I updated the table to include the Actual Scores from Monday’s Premiere of Season 15… Interesting things happening here. The main thing though is that these predicted scores never take into account any kind of under or over scoring in any capacity… so really just take them with a grain of salt. :)

A quick glance between the below table and my elimination predictions… I am looking at Pamela Anderson to have the dubious honor of being the first to go this season. With either Melissa or Kirstie as possibilities.

Many thanks to Heidi for finding out who is dancing what for the season premiere.

Let’s look at the below table before I start explaining what I did differently this time around:

 
RANKING
PREDICTION
ORIGINAL SCORES
ACTUAL SCORES
COUPLE DANCE
AGE
JOB
PRO
RANK
SCORE
WEEK
DANCE
AVE
RANK
SCORE
Emmitt / Cheryl Cha-Cha
12
10
4
11
19
24
24
1
24.5
Gilles / Peta Foxtrot
6
5
8
7
20
24
29
26.5
2
24
Sabrina / Louis Cha-Cha
4
2
11
4
20
26
26
3
22.5
Shawn / Derek Foxtrot
2
1
 
2
23
23
27
25
4
22
Apolo / Karina Cha-Cha
9
6
10
9
20
21
21
4
22
Helio / Chelsie Foxtrot
6
8
3
6
20
22
22
6
21.5
Drew / Anna Foxtrot
6
 
6
8
20
24
26
25
6
21.5
Kelly / Val Cha-Cha
9
11
 
13
18
10
25
17.5
6
21.5
Melissa / Tony Foxtrot
2
7
5
3
21
23
27
25
9
21
Joey / Kym Cha-Cha
9
3
9
5
20
24
24
10
20.5
Bristol / Mark Cha-Cha
4
12
2
10
19
18
18
11
19.5
Kirstie / Maksim Foxtrot
1
4
1
1
23
23
23
23
12
19
Pamela / Tristan Cha-Cha
12
9
7
12
19
21
21
13
17

When I started running the numbers for the season premiere of Dancing with the Stars… and predicting the scores I came across a few anomalies that I thought would amuse you guys:
– No Band Member has ever done the Foxtrot in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season
– Derek Hough has never done the Foxtrot before in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season

Interesting conundrum… no?
Read more..

September 24, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)