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DWTS Season 23, The Semi-Finals – Dancing by the Numbers!

I find myself asking the exact same question that I’ve asked for the last couple weeks – does extreme pimpage (raving judges, over scoring, positive/mush/sentimental editing) work on an audience? I think it’s very clear that the answer is yes. Why? Trump. Enough said. And if they didn’t know that it worked, they wouldn’t do it so much.

But you have to wonder where the tipping point is: when do they go so far that the general viewer sees the man behind the curtain?? I mean, this past week the thing with Laurie was just…disgusting. Leave the poor child and her family to deal with their grief without making a public spectacle of it – that’s just distasteful. The raving over Jana – come on. The first part of the season I forgot she was even on the show. Boring. When does the general audience wake up and say, “dang, they’re really pushing so and so HARD.” Read more..

November 17, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 23, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This has the potential to be an interesting week, from the standpoint of who goes home. The margins are relatively small (for this late in the game) and this could get REAL real fast. We can hope.

But first, Courtney commented on the fact that Jana has been in or near jeopardy quite a few times now. If you want to read the research I did on Jeopardy a few seasons back, please do so before spouting off and telling me it means nothing.  Anyway, I went back and looked at that post, and sonic did a little work up for me as well which included more recent seasons. Anyway, my original conclusions haven’t fallen apart with the arrival of Rob Wade. It’s still true that if you make multiple appearances in jeopardy you’re more likely than not to be eliminated – often soon. This is even more true if you are the last person to be called safe. Being the last to be called safe sometimes gives the couple the kick they need to last a couple weeks – but after a second time?  No. Lots and lots of people have made two appearances in jeopardy and were last to be called safe. What appears to be true is that if you are last to be called safe twice, you don’t win the show. That has happened ONCE in 23 seasons – Rumer Willis. Coincidence? I think not.  Prior to Season 17, if you had only been in Jeopardy and were last to be called safe even one time, you didn’t win the show –  with 3 exceptions: Donald, JR and Jennifer Grey, but her season was really strange in that all of the 5 were in jeopardy most often while the rest weren’t. That season they seemed to be trying to keep the eliminee a surprise all the time by putting the top people in jeopardy. An experiment, if you will. Read more..

November 11, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, another week, another clusterf*^k.  The most disheartening thing about all the manipulation and games is how easily some of you just buy it hook, line and sinker. After all these years of us telling you not to just blindly believe the packages, you still just believe. You will read in to moments in time exactly what they want you to read in.  Did it happen? Sure…but with the context removed its meaningless – and less than half the story. I think this blind belief in anything on TV is how Donald Trump is actually in the running to be president.    Marilu told me they had their best week ever….Derek’s blog confirmed that…yet what we saw on TV was the opposite, and some cleverly manipulated moments in time. I’m getting to where I actually hate watching this show.

The thing that confuses me is…is it even necessary to do this stuff? Marilu has troubles during the live show – they can reasonably score her lower than some of the other couples because of that. So, WHY are they working so hard to make their packages bad? I have to think that up until last week she was getting the votes, perhaps a lot of votes. She doesn’t look it, but she’s 64 years old and her dancing doesn’t suck at all. She has mistakes – and I would lay money on it that the live show issue is a result of extreme nitpicking from early on – but damn, she looks amazing.  How is that the look of 64?? The main demo that watches this show IS the 65 year old crowd. I would bet they WERE voting for her. But are they still?? Everyone is clearly susceptible to the packages. The producers may have finally succeeded. Read more..

November 5, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

So, I am starting this while sitting in Honolulu airport on early Saturday afternoon. My flight has been delayed and I’m not home until tomorrow at 10am – let’s see if I can manage to get this written in that time. We’ll see. 🙂

I’m not highly motivated to write it, if I’m being honest. I’m kinda over this show and the extremely blatant manipulation. And I’m not even thinking that Marilu might go home. When I start writing this, I’m not actually sure who I think will go home. The margins are pretty tight.

I was also half asleep when I was watching this show, so I can’t comment really on the dances other than I’m surprised Marilu did as well as she did, considering her feet….

And now it’s Sunday afternoon – nearly 24 hours after I started traveling and I’m home and fed. And I haven’t slept. This should be interesting. Kinda pissed off cuz I paid American Airlines coin to have ONE connection in LAX. But one mysterious four hour delay in Honolulu led to a missed connection in LAX, a completely re-booked itinerary after standing in line for more than an hour and a half – and TWO connections! The hell? Honolulu to LAX, then LAX to O’Hare (and a long damn walk in O’Hare) followed by O’Hare to Nashville – my second leg left at ONE AM. Jesus. Also paid for upgraded seats and I think I only got one of those. To add insult to injury – my Group one/priority boarding got down graded to Group four. Not a big deal, you might think. Except the complete bitch at the LAX check-in made me (and quite a few others) gate check my rollerbag because she claimed that the overhead bins were full by the time I went to board – which meant I had to carry my lap top IN MY HANDS, along with my good camera.  Again…you might think no big deal (except I had to carry that f*&king laptop through two airports)….except I get on the plane and there are LOTS OF EMPTY OVERHEAD BINS. Never again, American Airlines.  You owe me MONEY. At least 400 bucks by my reckoning. POS.

Okay, now that I’ve got that out of my system….let’s take a look at the leader board.

dwts-23-wk-7-table-1

Now, the uneducated in this inner workings of this show might assume that Marilu is going to go home. I am not one of those. I still haven’t decided who IS going home, though. Wish it was Jana, but I have a sneaking feeling that she will end up with immunity unless someone else (James) dances so well that it’s impossible to not give it to him.

There are so many problems with the scenario Monday that I guess I’m going to have to list them – for my own sake as well as yours. Here we go:

  • First, handing out immunity. Say that James and Jana tie for the top spot. In the GOOD OLD DAYS, the person with the highest cumulative score would win – that would be James (by 22 points by my count). However, the first time they did the face off this season, LEN was the deciding vote. That means he could EASILY choose Jana over James. This stinks to high heaven. Now, if Laurie and James tie, they are also tied in cumulative score – and neither are in danger anyway, so no big deal. At least, I don’t think they are…
  • Second, this little contest is not only tailor made to save someone who might be eliminated tomorrow otherwise, but it COULD also mean that at least three other people NEXT week who might have gone home are again safe. They will start out three points ahead of probably two other people. One person will start out FIVE points ahead of those same two people, and two points ahead of the three who win three extra points (unless one of them goes home).  It’s essentially designed to limit the effectiveness of the viewer votes by weighting the couples very significantly.
  • Weighting the couples very significantly in TWO ways. Now, if the margins are similar to this week, and they don’t over and underscore significantly next week, it might not work….but who are we kidding here? If Marilu makes it through and even scores a 36 on her AT (as if they would allow that), Jana could get a perfect score and with her immunity it would put her as much as NINE points ahead of Marilu – a likely impossible margin. It’s disgusting. Say that Marilu dances against Terra and Marilu gets 36 and Terra gets 37 – Terra would get three additional points putting her four points ahead of Marilu, in addition to Jana’s 9 points in this scenario.  Do you see how shabby this is? I know you’re probably sick of hearing this word…but this show really IS rigged this week.  Marilu is just an example – same thing could happen to any of the three they would like to see the backside of.
  • Now, the actual functioning of the immunity – I would be willing to bet that Jana is in play. She could go home. Say that Marilu gets the votes to beat Ryan and Jana.  And Ryan, Terra and Laurie also beat Jana in votes – it could happen because Laurie and Terra only need ONE vote per million votes cast, and Ryan needs less than 5.5k votes per million votes cast.  If Marilu is beating Ryan and Jana, and Ryan, Terra and Laurie are beating Jana, Jana would go home. Unless she gets immunity. Suddenly someone who is NOT the person with the lowest combined score and viewer vote goes home – either Marilu or Ryan, most likely.  This is shitty, no matter who it is.

:::sigh::: This bites. So, Marilu is on the bottom of the leaderboard this week – but she doesn’t need a lot to be safe – provided the frakin’ immunity doesn’t get in her way.

dwts-23-wk-7-table-2

 

Now, assuming that immunity goes to either James, Laurie or Jana, Marilu really only needs to score that 3,630 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over Ryan. And if she gets about 9.1k more votes per million votes cast than Laurie, Jana or Terra, that would also make her safe. I’m inclined to think that Jana is a possibility, but Terra might be out of reach. She’s been making an impact.

See, if Marilu or Ryan get eliminated fair and square – fine. That’s the way the show works. But if one of them (or even Terra) goes home because the producers “save” Jana to keep their new beefcake around a bit longer? That’s bullshit. Let me remind you that Derek and Maks needed NO help being huge draws to this show – and Derek needed no help winning this show. He won it with dancers and non-dancers alike. And NONE of his partners were pimped to the extent we’ve seen with Val and now Gleb. Give me a break. If they were all that, they wouldn’t need their help to be successful. Me thinks these producers are too close to their show and have gotten so into manipulating that it’s like a drug they can’t put down.

Okay, so that covers Marilu – what about Ryan and the gang?  I’ve got all the numbers in the next table, but I’m going to ignore James and Calvin, because I assume they are safe.

dwts-23-wk-7-table-3

Clearly, Ryan needs for Marilu to NOT get the 3.4k more votes per million votes cast OR he needs to get 5.5k more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Laurie, Terra or Jana. These are SMALL numbers…and now you see why I’m not sure who’s going home.  Who’s getting the votes?

Well, my gut still has me wondering if Jana is getting the votes…but I’m over tired and it could be wishful thinking. Let’s take a look at what would have to happen for Jana to be eliminated:

  • She doesn’t win immunity, AND;
  • Marilu gets 9.1k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Ryan gets 5.5k more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Laurie and Terra BOTH get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Jana doesn’t get the votes to pass either James or Calvin.

I tend to think that Jana is in real danger – or she was.  The real question is – how gullible is the audience? They’ve been working pretty hard to make Marilu invisible – they don’t include anything about her injuries in her package, they rarely send her up to Erin to chat, her camera time is basically limited.  Conversely, the producers are beating us over the head with Jana.

So why do they feel the need to do this? Well, Marilu is/was getting too many votes or Jana isn’t getting enough… or both. So…did it work? Have they managed to influence the audience? One only has to read some of the comments here to know they have an impact on the gullible.

Considering the unbelievable crap I read about our elections…I tend to think that most people just blindly believe what they see on TV or on the internet without question. While I do think the bottom three are likely Jana, Marilu and Ryan, Jana will end up being safe, one way or another.

I think it will come down to Ryan and Marilu and I really have no idea who will go home. My gut is leaning towards Marilu – a la a Nastia-style hatchet job, combined with other not so fun factors. But my gut is unreliable when it comes to Derek’s partners.

I think without the help, Jana might have been gone a week or two ago – this week for sure. And if Marilu goes, she better pray she gets the extra points for next week.

October 30, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Another week, another bout of wackiness when it comes to judges scoring – luckily not as bad as in previous weeks.  Well, perhaps I should say ‘not as widespread’ as in previous weeks because it was still pretty bad in at least one instance.

If Len had been around this week, Jana would have gotten a 7 or 8 for her Argentine Tango – I think you can count on it. He’s shown recently that he doesn’t limit that just to Derek’s partners. But he wasn’t there so the travesty of Jana getting a perfect score while the better AT is three points lower. Why? Well, I suspect that Jana has been on the bubble and the leader board this week reflects the top half (to the judges) and the bottom half…with Marilu kinda straddling the middle ground, which is quite dangerous. The judges, I think, have roughly grouped the couples in that way – with the possibility of Calvin falling out of favor and Marilu rising. I think the jury is out for them on those two couples. Everyone else is either top three or bottom three. Read more..

October 20, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, this week will be interesting.  We have a four way tie for last place and I’m sure that was just an accident. :::rolls eyes:::  Let me tell you, one of that four is not like the others – what the hell is Calvin still doing at the bottom of the leader board? Personally, I’m not convinced that Maureen belongs down there either, but I would only put her above Amber and Ryan by a point. Calvin by 2 or 3 points.  I think that Maureen has been a bit overscored on more than one occasion but I like her so I ain’t too mad. Calvin, on the other hand, has been robbed on more than one occasion. Not sure what they’re seeing there, honestly. Lindsey has been doing a tremendous job in choreo and I think she has a harder job than Sharna, the other standout female pro this season.  Good lord, Calvin was throwing Lindsay around…it was amazing.

I think that Laurie landed in about the right spot this week, as did Marilu and James. Terra…I don’t know what to make of her. I LIKE her so much, a lot of the time, but the contemporary dance didn’t do much for me. Conversely, her Samba kicked ASS. I think it has to do with her small stature which limits her ability to get that flowy, smooth finish to dances like Contemporary. Not her fault, but at some point they will have to score her in comparison to other competitors. I think she’s just too high on the leader board this week. Read more..

October 14, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, another night of crap ass scoring by judges who were having a hard time hiding their agenda. I mean what the hell was going on there? It’s almost like they got together before the show, had some wine and decided what scores they were going to hand out…and then several people over performed and didn’t match the low scores that were determined over drinks.

A huge problem with this show – HUGE – is the assigning of themes and dances. You give Laurie – the gymnast – a dance with few to no rules on a week where the theme whose middle name is “gymnastics”. Then you turn around and give EVERYONE else dances with very clear rules – and mark them down when they don’t execute. Of course Laurie got 10s – there was no way to “miss” a step, or have not enough body contact, or whatever. It’s ridiculous that you have couples dancing Jazz up against V.Waltz, Quickstep, Paso Doble and Tangos. Ridiculous. But worst of all, Val had a dance where anything goes, to an MJ song, with a 16 year old gymnast…and did we see anything close to what both Derek and Mark choreographed when they had partners with similar skill sets? Nope. Not even close. It’s a waste of a great partner.

:::sigh::: But why bother? I’m not the least bit surprised.

Anyway, I think Babyface is likely history and I’m thinking that Marilu will end up being safe. She and Calvin were both so underscored that I suspect they are getting the votes. I hope so, anyway.  Here’s where the leaderboard was at the end of the night…and keep in mind tomorrow is a double elimination. Read more..

October 4, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This was written during and after the first (HISTORIC) Presidential Debate. You’ve been warned. 🙂

I have a sniffing, loud guy in my ear, so I’m having a hard time concentrating, but how on earth is Terra two points ahead of Marilu?? This is a mystery to me. I think Marilu had a balance problem right at the beginning of her dance (she’s 64, after all), but that was a good dance. Then again, how did Laurie get a full three points more than her, lift and all?? And is that the first time Val’s ever actually been called on a lift? He’s done them before but I don’t remember him getting so nailed on it.

Anyway, I think Terra (and Laurie) did do a good job, I just don’t get the scoring two weeks in a row that insulates her. I’m afraid that once the people they want to leave, actually leave the scoring may change and that is fair to no one. It’s whiplash inducing for people who don’t know just how manipulated this show really is.  Read more..

September 27, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, seems there was a bit of protective scoring going on – were we right to be worried about Terra? In any case, she did a great dance, she was just a bit overscored.

Unfortunately for Jake, Maureen had a good, nostalgic dance and Ryan overcame his protesters (and the heart shirts a bunch of people wore will likely touch hearts as well, and Amber is still dancing with Maks. I would be STUNNED if Maks were ever the first one out. Your pro won’t win you the show, but he should prevent you from being first out. Read more..

September 20, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 23, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think I made most of my impressions pretty clear in the Live Blog for Week 1.  Sometimes they change over the course of the week and upon rewatching the show, but since I was away from home for more than 10 days, including last Monday night, I haven’t had a chance to rewatch.  Maybe next week.

Since there is a results show this Tuesday night, I assume that no one is eliminated until Tuesday. Is this an assumption?…runs to check the press release…okay, the press release said that the first elimination is on Tuesday night and is based on week 1 and week 2 scores and votes.  Of course, this means that this calculation of the numbers is only to show the standings (and my thoughts on who would go home) of week 1 only. I’ll have to do a quick DBTN update on Monday night to see if my thoughts on who’s leaving change based on Monday’s dances.  I love my sleep these days, so when there’s a results show it usually means a late night…for me and Courtney both. Anyway, look for the DBTN update at about 2 pm Eastern on Tuesday.  Courtney’s power rankings typically go up after the show or first thing Tuesday morning. When there is no results show, Courtney’s power rankings will go up on Tuesday and I shoot for Thursday. SHOOT FOR…I don’t always make it. 🙂 If you missed Court’s power rankings this week, just click the link to read them…when you’re done here. 😉 Read more..

September 17, 2016 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)