So there’s a few hours left to tweet your votes for the partner switch in week 5, but we thought we’d go ahead and try to predict who’s gonna end up with who based on the tweet counts from Topsy. Last season, we tried using Keyhole (a much more comprehensive method of measuring the frequency of tweets), but since TPTB basically gave everyone the middle finger and did whatever they wanted with the results of the partner switch voting, we didn’t really want to spend the money to try and do that again. So Topsy will have to do for now :-) And while it would be great to be able to measure the switch voting being tweeted from the ABC website, there’s no really good way to do it – so for the sake of simplicity, we’re just going to assume that the voting from the ABC website is probably mirroring whatever the people manually tweeting are doing.
A quick explanation as to how the votes are tallied: they start with the highest vote-getting combination of any of the possible combinations, and begin pairing off down the list of vote totals until everyone has a partner (that isn’t their original partner, mind you). So using this methodology, even if Janel’s highest vote-getting combo is with Mark, she may not actually end up with him if he has a higher vote total with another contestant. Likewise, even if Betsey doesn’t have the highest vote-total with Artem, she may get him because his other high vote-getting combos have already been taken. Make sense? We also tried to take into account any nicknames that the pros and/or celebs have, as both might count (i.e. Val and Valentin, Beth and Bethany, etc.).
Some random observations that we made when looking at the totals: like last year, a helluva lot more people seem to care about who the male pros end up with, than the female pros. It’s a bit sad, actually – almost every single combination that had a male pro’s name in it had totals in the thousands, while only a handful of the combinations with female pros’ names in them even broke into the thousands. I’m guessing the Ballas/Hough vs. Chmerkovskiy Entourage rivalry is fueling that one, and Rob Wade & Co. are laughing all the way to the bank. Also interesting: if the partner switch voting has any sort of correlation with the actual voting done to keep couples in the competition, than Lea may have a lot more people voting for her than we originally assumed – likewise, assuming the same correlation, Janel may not have as many people voting for her as we may have originally assumed. Food for thought. Read more..