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Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/ Professional Partners

Thanks to yesterday’s live blog post by Heidi of the announcements of the partnerships on Dancing with the Stars Season 15, I can now provide the predicted eliminations with the professional partners as opposed to previously where the partnerships were not announced.

If you have forgotten, in a previous post I have ranked the announced celebrities in accordance to their normalized averages via their ages at the time of their original season and their occupations and how they would have fared if we were able to clone their professional partner if one professional dancer had multiple celebrities.

And then I had another table that updated their ages to Season 15 and kept their occupations for which they are known for but at that time without the professional partner. So in the below table is a comparison of how each of the celebrities had fared without knowing whom their professional partners are and after the announcement from Monday:

CELEBRITY OCCUPATION AGE RANK w/o PRO S15 PRO PARTNER RANK w/ PRO
Shawn Johnson Olympian 20s 1st Derek Hough 1st
Apolo Anton Ohno Olympian 30s 2nd Karina Smirnoff 2nd
Emmitt Smith NFL 40s 5th Cheryl Burke 3rd
Joey Fatone Band Member 30s 4th Kym Johnson 4th
Gilles Marini Actor 30s 6th Peta Murgatroyd 5th
Drew Lachey Band Member 30s 3rd Anna Trebunskaya 6th
Bristol Palin Other 20s 11th Mark Ballas 7th
Kelly Monaco Soap Opera Star 30s 7th Val Chmerkovskiy 8th
Pamela Anderson Actress 40s 12th Tristan MacManus 9th
Hélio Castroneves Athlete 30s 8th Chelsie Hightower 10th
Kirstie Alley Actress 60s 10th Maks Chmerkovskiy 11th
Melissa Rycroft Reality TV Star 20s 9th Tony Dovolani 12th

In generalizations it would appear that the professional partner does not change how the celebrity would do on the show, however when you really compare the two different rankings there are some significant jumps.

For example Emmitt Smith jumping from 5th place without Cheryl Burke to 3rd when paired with her. Drew Lachey was originally slated for 3rd place before we found out his professional partner who (as we found out) turned out to be Anna Trebunskaya and it dropped him to 6th place.

Bristol Palin’s ranking jumped from 11th without her professional partner, Mark Ballas, who moved her up to 7th place. A similar jump up in placement happened for Pamela Anderson when she is paired with Tristan MacManus.

This is what the numbers show me… and hopefully over the coming weeks the numbers would reveal if in previous seasons there was warped scoring for the celebrities or not…

August 14, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/o Professional Partners

So now that we know who most of the cast is I decided to whip up a quick breakdown of how the Season 15 cast would fare against one another now.

However, then I started thinking: How cool would it be to see how they would have fared against one another with the professional partners that they had before? Yes, I know that there are duplicates here and there but if you were able to clone those pros… how would the “All Star” cast fare? Well let’s find out!

CELEBRITY PROFESSIONAL ORIGINAL RANK NEW RANK
Apolo Anton Ohno Julianne Hough Winner Winner
Shawn Johnson Mark Ballas Winner 2nd
Drew Lachey Cheryl Burke Winner 3rd
Gilles Marini Cheryl Burke 2nd 4th
Hélio Castroneves Julianne Hough Winner 5th
Emmitt Smith Cheryl Burke Winner 6th
Joey Fatone Kym Johnson 2nd 7th
Bristol Palin Mark Ballas 3rd 8th
Kelley Monaco Alec Mazo Winner 9th
Melissa Rycroft Tony Dovolani 3rd 10th
Kirstie Alley Maksim Chmerkovskiy 2nd 11th
Pamela Anderson Damian Whitewood 6th 12th
VOTABLE CELEBRITIES
Sabrina Bryan Mark Ballas 7th 3rd (before Drew)
Carson Kressley Anna Trebunskaya 8th 12th (before Pamela)
Kyle Massey Lacey Schwimmer 2nd 4th (before Gilles)

An interesting breakdown to be sure… granted probably not accurate but what can you do? On the other hand this is with the assumption that everyone was with their original partner but that’s not going to happen, not by a long shot. So with the information that we do know about the celebrities (occupation, current age) how would they fare on the season? Read more..

July 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 – The 24-Hour Challenge

Now that we know what the final three couples are going to dance for the 24-hour Challenge, let’s see how they will fare:

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.190
- Occupation: 26.250
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Donald and Peta chose their lowest scoring dance for their 24-hour challenge, the first time they did a Cha-Cha was back in Week 1, it was a 21. With so much room for improvement I have no doubt that Donald would shine, but how much? Let’s look at how previous NFL players in their 30s have done this late in the season.
- Season 3′s Emmitt Smith received a 30 in Week 9
- Season 6′s Jason Taylor received a 24 for Week 10
- Season 11′s Kurt Warner received a 24 and Week 8
For the most part NFL players are oozing with charisma, regardless on the scores that they received. Donald could do better, scoring wise… I’m hoping he’ll get another perfect score.

Read more..

May 22, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 10: The Finals!

Here we go, the last week of the season. Week 10. The following are the dances that the couples are slated to do over the course of Monday/Tuesday:
- Judges Choice: the judges get choose a dance that they would like to the couples to conquer again and the couples will perform it to new music and new choreography
- Freestyle: The anything goes dance… do I really need to describe this to you guys?
- 24-hour Challenge: The couples are allowed to pick a dance but are not given the music until 24-hours before Tuesday night’s show (something similar to the dance off where couples are working on routines/dances the night before Tuesday night’s show)

One thing I want to gripe about is why not have the couple do a dance that they have yet to do? For example Donald has set to do the Salsa, while William is missing a Waltz and Katherine the Tango… I think it would be fairer to give them all new dances… but that’s just me. Ah well. In any case:

DISCLAIMER: At the time of this writing, according to Wikipedia Katherine and Mark are doing the Rumba for their “judges choice” dance, so if there are any changes I may not be able to get to them prior to the show time… and I apologize.

UPDATE: I have updated the Predicted Scores with Katherine’s dance the Paso Doble

WILLIAM LEVY
Dance 1: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.190
- Occupation: 24.500
- Professional Partner: 27.000
Predicted Score: 26

Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
- Age: 28.059
- Occupation: 28.000
- Professional Partner: 28.600
Predicted Score: 28

Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Getting a dance that he did earlier in the season bodes well for William, since he did a Cha-Cha in Week 1 there is a very good chance that he could show off just how much he has improved since then. The other two actors in their 30s that did the Cha-Cha this late in the season:
- Season 3′s Mario Lopez got a 29
- Season 13′s David Arquette got a 24
Personally William is a stronger dancer than David, but not the same caliber as Mario… so getting a 29 would be difficult for me to fathom unless he knocks it out of the park. As for the freestyle:
- Season 3′s Mario Lopez received a 30
- Season 8′s Gilles Marini received a 28
Ironically, both ended up being runners up in their respective seasons… William could end up being a runner up in the current season, but it is hard to tell at this juncture.

Read more..

May 21, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 9

Week 9! The Semi-finals. Each couple will be dancing the two dances that they have yet to learn this season. So let’s see where they could be placed

DONALD DRIVER
Dance 1: Waltz
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.333
- Occupation: 25.800
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 27

Dance 2: Samba
Average Scores:
- Age: 26.700
- Occupation: 26.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 26

Predicted Rank: 4th
Comments: Some NFL players have done rather well in the Waltz this late in the season
- Season 3′s Emmitt Smith: 28 in Week 7
- Season 10′s Chad Ochocinco: 27 in Week 9
- Season 11′s Kurt Warner: 24 in Week 8
So seeing a predicted score of 17 for Donald isn’t all that far fetched to me. On the other hand there is more of a point difference when it comes to the Samba:
- Season 3′s Emmitt Smith: 30 in Week 10
- Season 6′s Jason Taylor: 23 in Week 8
- Season 7′s Warren Sapp: 25 in Week 10
- Season 10′s Chad Ochocinco: 25 in Week 9
- Season 12′s Hines Ward: 30 in Week 10
Again the predicted score for the Samba seems to be rather close as well… As for his placement? I dear hope not.

Read more..

May 14, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 8

The home stretch! Heading into the Last Third of the season. You know what that means? It means that every couple is going to be dancing two dances for the next two weeks… each! This ought to be fun.

So what I am going to do is that below each celebrity I am going to put the predicted scores breakdown for the first dance and do the same for the second dance. Then I will put in the predicted rank as well as my personal comments on each celebrity. Hopefully I’ll be able to keep them all straight in my head :)

MELISSA GILBERT
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.000
- Occupation: 25.500
- Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score: 25

Dance 2: Samba
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.571
- Occupation: 24.500
- Professional Partner: 26.400
- “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 25

Predicted Rank: 6th
Comments: Since we do not know for sure that Melissa would perform the Waltz for her Ballroom dance… but just for the sake of it the only other Actress in their 40s to have done the Waltz was Season 10′s Pamela Anderson on Week 7, but she received a 24. Now that we know that the Foxtrot is what Melissa is dancing for her Ballroom dance, the scores have changed a little bit, as well as her placing… unfortunately. Also unfortunate is that no other actress in their 40s have done the Foxtrot this late in the season. The closest being that Season 5′s Jennie Garth and Season 6′s Marissa Jaret Winokur (who were both Actresses in their 30s) received a 26 and 25 respectively. On the other hand there is no other celebrity in the exact same categories as Melissa that has done a Samba this late in the season. Melissa has been gaining steam slowly and surely… but there is no telling if that upward trend would continue after the scores last week.

ROSHON FEGAN
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 25.000
- Occupation: 25.500
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 25

Dance 2: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.778
- Occupation: 25.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
- “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 26

Predicted Rank: 5th
Comments: Unfortunately there were no Disney related celebrities that have done the Foxtrot in the last four weeks of the season. On the other hand Season 3′s Monique Coleman and Season 12′s Chelsea Kane both did the Paso Doble in their Week 7 and received a 27 and 26 respectively. Roshon has been getting inconsistent scores and even though I could see him receiving a 25/26 for his dances, whether he actually would is another story altogether.

Read more..

May 7, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 7

Yay Week 7 aka Classical Week, and you know what that means? It means that later this week you’ll get my Predicted Scores Scorecard for the “Middle Third” of the season. Are you wondering what I mean by the “middle third” well… continue reading.
- First “Third”: Weeks 1 through 4
- Middle “Third”: Weeks 4 through 7
- Last “Third”: Weeks 7 through 10

And in case you’ve forgotten here is the post of how the “Age”, “Occupation”, “Professional Partner” categories breakdown.

Since this is Week 7 how does that affect the predicted scores since I have Week 7 in both the “middle third” and “last third”… simply that I will have individual average scores for the two thirds and average it out from there… I had a reason for doing this, because I did the same in Week 4, but for the life of me I forgot why… anyway… onward!

ROSHON FEGAN
Dance: Argentine Tango
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.667
- Occupation: N/A
- Professional Partner: 22.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 25 / 7th
Comments: Oh boy, in a dance where lifts are actually allowed, Roshon isn’t going to be able to take full advantage of that little nuance unless they pull some of the lower lifts like the pseudo one they did during the Rumba last week. The only Disney kids to have done the Argentine Tango were Season 11′s Kyle Massey (29) and Season 12′s Chelsea Kane (28), but they did the Argentine Tango in Week 9 which are in the “last third” of the season breakdown. Whether Roshon could get anywhere near that high is anyone’s guess, I’m hoping he can, but the numbers are telling a different story here.

MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: Argentine Tango
Average Scores:
- Age: 20.833
- Occupation: 24.333
- Professional Partner: 24.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 25 / 6th
Comments: Only Season 10′s Pamela Anderson has done the Argetine Tango and she got a 22 (actress in her 40s), what is also odd is that she has had a lot of 7-paddles up to Week 6 only to finally break the barrier in Week 7 (she’s had a couple more 8 paddle in her run up to the point, but the scores were roughly in the same area). So the trends seem to be rather similar between Melissa and Pamela in general. Maybe this would be Melissa’s week to shine like it was Pamela’s break out week? But would it be enough, since Pamela was voted off in Week 7 as well? I guess only time will tell.

Read more..

April 30, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 6 (Motown Week)

Motown Week? How much you wanna bet that this is honor of Gladys Knight being part of the cast? Just throwing it out there. =) In any case… ONWARDS!

As a REMINDER we are in Week 5, which means that the data that the following predicted scores are based off of, are from the middle third of the previous seasons. If you’re wondering what this means see the following breakdown:
- First “Third”: Weeks 1 through 4
- Middle “Third”: Weeks 4 through 7
- Last “Third”: Weeks 7 through 10

This is to keep the progression as accurate as possible. So if there is a dance that happened in a previous season but in a later week (like Week 9), it wouldn’t make sense to consider it in the predicted scores because the skill level is different between Week 5 and Week 9.

I’m gunning for accuracy here people… well as accurate as subjectivity can be.

GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.000
- Occupation: 23.000
- Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 8th
Comments: We don’t know for sure that Gladys has the Jive, but I do find it odd that she is given the Jive and the Dance Duel is also the Jive. Is this in anticipation that she’d be in the “bottom two” and as thus to help her pass the Dance Duel TPTB’s gave her the same dance? We’ll never know for sure until the show, so enough speculation for now. Since the numbers do indicate her to be at the bottom of the pack… this is just re-enforcing what could be true. Without any data of previous celebrities in a similar situation, we can only speculate, but personally I think the score is fairly spot on.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 25.077
- Occupation: 22.667
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 7th
Comments: Donald is dealt the Foxtrot, and gets to prove that he can be a debonair gentleman… ooo la la! Season 3′s Warren Sapp is the only other NFLer that has done the Foxtrot midway through the season and he got a 21, the difference between Warren and Donald though (in my opinion) is that Warren was more of an “everyman” dancer, while Donald’s got some game as well as that winning personality. So having a higher score than Warren makes sense to me, but I’m hoping for higher.

Read more..

April 23, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 5 Predicted Scores

This is an interesting week. Latin week isn’t a new concept… but normally it would be the Samba and the Rumba… This time around “Latin Week” has an Argentine Tango, the Samba, and the Salsa… Umm oook. Anyway you’re hear to see the predicted scores, not my mini-rant about TPTB changing things up this season… so ONWARDS!

As a REMINDER we are in Week 5, which means that the data that the following predicted scores are based off of, are from the middle third of the previous seasons. If you’re wondering what this means see the following breakdown:
- First “Third”: Weeks 1 through 4
- Middle “Third”: Weeks 4 through 7
- Last “Third”: Weeks 7 through 10

This is to keep the progression as accurate as possible. So if there is a dance that happened in a previous season but in a later week (like Week 9), it wouldn’t make sense to consider it in the predicted scores because the skill level is different between Week 5 and Week 9.

I’m gunning for accuracy here people… well as accurate as subjectivity can be.

MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: Salsa
Average Scores:
- Age: 24.000
- Occupation: 21.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: The Salsa hasn’t been done all that often in the past seasons (only Seasons 8, 9, and 12), the only other actress in their 40s to have done the Salsa was back in Season 9: Debi Mazar with Maksim Chmerkovskiy, but that was a Week 1 dance and they got a 16… so not a very good comparison. Season 12′s Kirstie Alley also did the Salsa with Maksim in Week 8 and got a 25, so it’s fair to say that Melissa would be rather close in score if not a point or two below that of Kirstie’s which would equate to the predicted score.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Argentine Tango
Average Scores:
- Age: 24.429
- Occupation: 21.500
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 8th
Comments: Considering that the Argentine Tango has only been around since Season 8 and not all celebs have gotten the dance… the data is pretty scarce. The only other NFL player in their 30s to have done the Argentine Tango was Season 10′s Chad Ochocinco with Cheryl Burke and they got a 24. So knowing that I think Donald could get about the same score… since his predicted score is about the same. But considering that Donald seems to be hitting his stride I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls off a better score than predicted.

Read more..

April 16, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 – Week 4 Predicted Scores

Now we are nearing the midway point of the season. For anyone that noticed my comments in previous posts, I have broken up every season in “thirds” for easier calculations. What do I mean by this? What I have been trying to do is that for the first “third” of a season, I only use the first four weeks of scores to come up with a predicted score for the first four weeks of the current season. Consequently when it reached Week Four, I’ll shift into using the middle four weeks of all previous seasons (10 week seasons that is) and use that as a basis for predictions. The idea is that using scores from later in the season (ie Week 7 thru 10) would not make sense for predict scores for the beginning of the season (ie Week 1 thru 3). In this way I had hoped that the predicted scores would come out to be closer to accurate than if I were to use scores willy-nilly from any point of any season.

Unfortunately not all seasons are the same length – like how not all casts are the same size – so I had to find some “normalization” for the length of the season. So I broke up a season into “thirds”. In a ten week season:
- “First Third” includes Weeks 1 through 4
- “Middle Third” includes Weeks 4 through 7
- “Last Third” includes Weeks 7 through 10

While in Season 1′s six-week season:
- “First Third” includes Weeks 1 and 2
- “Middle Third” includes Weeks 3 and 4
- “Last Third” includes Weeks 5 and 6

Why is there an overlap of Week 4 and 7 in the ten-week season format? I did that specifically to keep it semi-realistic of the skill level of all the celebs, and to have a decent broad-base of the “thirds” rather than a more cut-throat approach. Since this is the first season that I’m testing these particular calculations out… we’ll see my season finale scorecard fares in the off-season.

But enough with my blabbering… onward to the predicted scores!

ROSHON FEGAN
Dance: Viennese Waltz
Average Scores:
- Age: 22.000
- Occupation: N/A
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 10th
Comments: Oddly enough, the only Disney kid to have any trouble with the Viennese Waltz was Season 7′s Cody Linley with Edyta Śliwińska (who was subbing for the then injured Julianne Hough), but he received a 22. Season 11′s Kyle Massey and Season 12′s Chelsea Kane received a 27 and 26 respectively… so I highly doubt that Roshon is going to score lower than Cody, will he score as high as Kyle or Chelsea? It’s rather hard to say considering that Chelsie has only done a Viennese Waltz at the beginning of the season (Season 10 with Jake Pavelka for 20 and Season 11 with Michael Bolton for 16) or at the end of the season (Season 8 with Ty Murray for 25). Middle of the season will be interesting for this pairing.

GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.000
- Occupation: 26.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: Being the first singer in her 60s to be on the show, there isn’t much data to work off of (how about virtually none), the closest would be Season 5′s Wayne Newton with Cheryl Burke… but they got an 18 and Gladys is nowhere near as stiff as Wayne Newton. I do think in some ways the 23 is realistic, give or take a point.

Read more..

April 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)