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DWTS Season 13 Stats: Pre Season Elimination Predictions

UPDATE: I have changed Elisabetta’s occupation from Model to Actress… note how this changes the rankings.

Hello All! Marianya here… as always every season I try to predict via a series of really complex calculations, statistics, analysis and sometimes gut instinct who will be eliminated, when through the upcoming season of Dancing With the Stars. Sometimes I’m right on point, other times I’m way off base.

Since we won’t officially know celebrity/professional partner pairings until tomorrow (Wednesday) I figure let’s see how the celebrities stand at the moment.

Now if you recall from previous season I use three main factors in calculating placement for the celebrities:
1) Age – probably not too surprising, age plays a role in how a celebrity does on the dance floor. On average the younger celebrities do far better than their elders. Once in a while this may not be the case… for example those in their Teens, 20s, and 30s dominate the placements, but instead of being followed by celebs in their 40s, it is the celebs in their 60s that do well followed by 40s, 70s, 50s and finally 80s.
2) Occupation – believe it or not, what the celeb is primarily known for (aka their primary occupation) plays a factor in their dancing capability. It is a known belief that athletes tend fare far better than comedians, actors/actresses, reality stars, etc… But I break the fields down even further to Olympians, those from the NBA or NFL, boxers and any other athletes that do not fit any of the previous categories. I also separate Actor from Actress, Reality TV Stars get their own category.
3) Professional Partner – this is theoretically suppose to reflect the varying teaching styles of the professional dancers. Granted with a poor student a professional dancer’s teaching style could only go so far, but I think considering all the other varying circumstances of the other categories, this would also be a prime factor to account for.

I will include my own opinion on the matter… but the ranking system is all mathematically based… granted how I break the celebs down is primarily subjective and as thus comments are more than welcome if you believe that there is a better way to describe a particular celebrity.

More beyond the break

Read more..

August 30, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class – Week 8

Ralph and Karina – Viennese Waltz
– Age [40s]: 21.4
– Occupation [Actor]: 27
– Pro Partner: 23.5
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Ralph didn’t disappoint me last week, and I don’t expect him to disappoint this week. It’s a ballroom dance, and ballroom dances is more his strength. What I am more worried about is…

Ralph and Karina – ChaCha
– Age [40s]: 18.833
– Occupation [Actor]: 20.2
– Pro Partner: 19.625
Averaged Predicted Score: 19
Thoughts: This a fun and flirty dance and caters to those with good, strong personalities best. So as much as I’m worried about Ralph not doing as well in the Latin dances, this one I’m not as worried as long as he brings his personality onto the floor and loosens up a bit.

Kirstie and Maks – Argentine Tango
– Age [60s]: 22
– Occupation [Actress]: 24.333
– Pro Partner: 27.333
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Here is a nice slower dance for Kirstie to start with. It requires a lot of passion and drama, and being an actress she should be ok with.

Kirstie and Maks – Salsa
– Age [60s]: 18.667
– Occupation [Actress]: 18.5
– Pro Partner: 16
Averaged Predicted Score: 17
Thoughts: Considering that the Salsa is a recent addition… there is only so much information that could be gleaned. However, it’s a Latin dance, and a bit fun and flirty which should help Kirstie a bit, however if it’s the second dance of the night that it could prove difficult for her stamina.

Romeo and Chelsie – Tango
– Age [20s]: 25.25
– Occupation [Singer]: 22.667
– Pro Partner: 23.5
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Sometimes I feel that Romeo tries too hard to be too aggressive or too hard to be too fun loving… if that makes sense. The tango is one of those dances where he would have to be strong and masculine (a bit like the Paso Doble). Considering how well he’s been doing w/ the ballroom dances I’m not too worried.

Romeo and Chelsie – Salsa
– Age [20s]: 23
– Occupation [Singer]: 25.667
– Pro Partner: 24
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: As much as he’s improving on the ballroom dances, I felt that he’s become a bit stagnant with the Latin dances. After the first week’s chacha I didn’t feel like he has improved nearly as much as he did with the latin dances. Here’s hoping that I’m wrong.

Hines and Kym – Foctrot
– Age [30s]: 22.925
– Occupation [NFL]: 23.111
– Pro Partner: 23.571
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Mr Personality gets to shine again. The personality that we all loved so much in the Latin dances gets to come out during the Foxtrot, and considering that he’s been strong in not only the Latin dances but the Ballroom dances as well, I’m not terribly worried about how he is going to progress.

Hines and Kym – Jive
– Age [30s]: 24.025
– Occupation [NFL]: 22.857
– Pro Partner: 26.2
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: There isn’t much more for me to add in regards to the Jive, just keep up the energy and the personality and he should be fine I think.

Chelsea and Mark – Waltz
– Age [20s]: 23.444
– Occupation [Disney]: 23.5
– Pro Partner: 23
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: I would say that with the waltz there is almost no way to make it cheesy, then I remember the Waltz w/ Bristol and how I rolled my eyes, and as thus stand corrected.

Chelsea and Mark – Salsa
– Age [20s]: 23
– Occupation [Disney]: 24
– Pro Partner: 24
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Then again w/ the Salsa they could be as cheesy as they want to be, I think… I hope not though, b/c it would drive me batty.

May 8, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class – Week 7

“Ballroom Greats” Theme Night…? Er?

See Guilty Pleasure Night I totally agreed with, that was nice. Hell I wouldn’t mind a “One Hit Wonders” Night to bring back some good old fashioned memories, but puhlease!

ANYWAY! To the predictions

Ralph and Karina – Quickstep
– Age [40s]: 22.412
– Occupation [Actor]: 24.333
– Pro Partner: 21.143
Averaged Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: Ok, I’m a little excited about this dance, mainly because I loved his Foxtrot in the opening week and the magic that came with it and I REALLY want to see that spark again. They captured the spark last week had it not been for the mishap, I’m hoping that the sparkle stays this week.

Kirstie and Maks – Jive
– Age [60s]: 21
– Occupation [Actress]: 21
– Pro Partner: 23.6
Averaged Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Umm, help? I don’t know if this is a very good choice for Kirstie considering how winded she has been after dancing. I’m worried, very very worried, but if anything she’s had time to build up some stamina along the way, so here’s hoping.

Romeo and Chelsie – Samba
– Age [20s]: 26.615
– Occupation [Singer]: 25.222
– Pro Partner: 22
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Romeo is continuing his uphill climb on the leaderboard tying for first last week. Is he peaking too early or just right? Only time will tell.

Hines and Kym – Tango
– Age [30s]: 25.283
– Occupation [NFL]: 23.5
– Pro Partner: 24.8
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Hines is probably one of the few celebrities that is pretty strong in both ballroom and latin dances. He’s that fantastic balance. I expect him to do decently well in the Tango, just how well? I don’t know

Chelsea and Mark – Paso Doble
– Age [20s]: 26.8
– Occupation [Disney]: 26
– Pro Partner: 28.6
Averaged Predicted Score: 27
Thoughts: Ok, I’ll admit it, she is grudgingly rubbing off on me and I don’t like it. But the numbers show that she is slowly climbing up the leaderboard as well. Still I prefer Romeo/Chelsie pairing over the Chelsea/Mark pairing. But considering this is a Quickstep I expect her scores to go sky high.

Kendra and Louis – Tango
– Age [20s]: 25.25
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 20.5
– Pro Partner: 24.25
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: I’m going to repeat what I said last week: Why the frack is she still around? Can’t we cut her out please? Like now? I’ve got nothing to say about her, she’s not improving in my opinion, and her comments come off as odd for me. So yeah, gone… like now… like last week. Now aside from all that, I’ll grudgingly admit, she seemed to have fun with her Samba last week, granted that table dance was a bit over the top, and she seemed far too comfortable up there, regardless, unless she gets over her phobia over the more elegant dances, I really don’t want to watch her.

May 1, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class – Week 6

Guilty Pleasures Night! The songs that we love to listen to and are ashamed to admit that we rather enjoy.

What is your guilty pleasure? I’ll name a couple of mine:
Backstreet Boys: Show Me the Meaning of Being Lonely Show Me the Meaning of Being Lonely - Millennium
Girls Aloud: Life Got Cold Life Got Cold - Sound of the Underground

Hmm… a wee melodramatic aren’t I?

Ok for something a wee upbeat:
Westlife: Uptown Girl Uptown Girl (Radio Edit) - Unbreakable - The Greatest Hits, Vol. 1

ANYWAY! Onwards!

Ralph and Karina – Paso Doble
– Age [40s]: 22.417
– Occupation [Actor]: 25.778
– Pro Partner: 24.4
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Ralph hasn’t hit his stride like everyone thought and hoped he would. After such a strong showing in the first couple weeks something hasn’t clicked yet. Be it nerves or fatigue or something… in either case, unless something changes or clicks he might be out of the door sooner than most of us would like. Ralph tends to do better in dances that are a bit more “fun-loving” which is NOT the Paso Doble. Still it’d be interesting to see the passiong come out for this dance.

Kirstie and Maks – Samba
– Age [60s]: 20.25
– Occupation [Actress]: 21.333
– Pro Partner: 24
Averaged Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Kirstie is another one that had a strong showing at the beginning and then all of sudden just disappeared from the top. Despite some more than stellar performances. I really would love to see her break through, I’m not entirely sure if the Samba would be the dance to do it.

Romeo and Chelsie – Waltz
– Age [20s]: 23.444
– Occupation [Singer]: 24.571
– Pro Partner: 24
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Romeo did it again, I couldn’t stop watching and rewatching the foxtrot. It would seem like he got over his aversion towards ballroom dances, but I’m going to hold my breath a little bit and see how he does with the Waltz.

Chris and Cheryl – Tango
– Age [40s]: 23.667
– Occupation [Athlete]: 24
– Pro Partner: 23.667
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Chris is another celeb that’s been growing on me and he seems to be getting better in the ballroom dances. He did surprise me a bit on the Paso Doble so here’s hoping he could carry over that tension and passion onto the Tango.

Hines and Kym – Viennese Waltz
– Age [30s]: 24.355
– Occupation [NFL]: 24.5
– Pro Partner: 23.75
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: This guy’s infectious, I love him even more in the ballroom dances, particularly when he’s having fun. As long as he keeps it up, I’m not going to complain about him (I’m not talking about the scores… I blame the producers/judges for that one)

Chelsea and Mark – Quickstep
– Age [20s]: 25
– Occupation [Disney]: 23.75
– Pro Partner: 25.25
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: This couple rubs me the wrong way, despites some stellar scores. She’s doing all right, but I don’t think I could stand her for much longer… there isn’t enough of a balance if that makes any sense.

Kendra and Louis – Samba
– Age [20s]: 26.615
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 23.667
– Pro Partner: 21.5
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Why the frack is she still around? Can’t we cut her out please? Like now? I’ve got nothing to say about her, she’s not improving in my opinion, and her comments come off as odd for me. So yeah, gone… like now… like last week.

April 24, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class – Week 5

Patriot Night! Is everyone wearing their reds, whites, and blues tonight?

I’m not either… But that doesn’t mean I’m not going to enjoy tonight’s dances… well as long as they are good… I hope.

Ralph and Karina – Samba
– Age [40s]: 20.765
– Occupation [Actor]: 24.625
– Pro Partner: 23
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: After Ralph’s high scoring opening number… his been middle of the pack thus far in accordance to the judges… the Samba isn’t exactly an easy dance technically-wise, especially the hip action. I’m thinking his score is going to go down a little here.

Kirstie and Maks – Foxtrot
– Age [60s]: 23.667
– Occupation [Actress]: 23.125
– Pro Partner: 23.714
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Ok… so it’s been four weeks and Kirstie has had a mishap in two of the four dances. Particularly the SLOW dances (Rumba, Waltz), Foxtrot is more middle of the road speed… so I’m thinking that she’s not going to has a mishap this time around… and if she does, it’s probably because things come in threes.

Romeo and Chelsie – Foxtrot
– Age [20s]: 23
– Occupation [Singer]: 22.25
– Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: Ok… I’m liking Romeo a bit more, as opposed to the judges. I want him to be a man in this dance, to frame Chelsie and give her that gentlemanly masculinity that he’s more than capable of portraying. If he does that then I expect to see him around for another week.

Chris and Cheryl – Viennese Waltz
– Age [40s]: 21.4
– Occupation [Athlete]: 26
– Pro Partner: 24.5
Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Chris has been growing on me over the weeks. But unfortunately he hasn’t been all that memorable either. Here’s hoping for something solid to pin him down on (no pun intended).

Petra and Dmitry – Quickstep
– Age [30s]: 24.026
– Occupation [Model]: 21.2
– Pro Partner: 23.5
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: The Quickstep is a foot placement heavy dance. And with Petra’s tendency of dancing off her feet rather than on it, I’m thinking the score SHOULD be lower, but will it be?

Hines and Kym – Rumba
– Age [30s]: 24.653
– Occupation [NFL]: 23.5
– Pro Partner: 23.667
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Hines has been on a hell of an uphill climb these past few weeks. His personality is rather infectious, but will it come out during something as slow and romantic as the Rumba? I’m not entirely convinced, but I could be proven wrong.

Chelsea and Mark – Samba
– Age [20s]: 26.615
– Occupation [Disney]: 25
– Pro Partner: 23.75
Predicted Score: 25
Thoughts: The upbeat Samba tends to favor the young (not necessarily the young at heart). Chelsea has been getting decent marks thus far… She could do well here AND get away with crazy personality in the process… dammit.

Kendra and Louis – Foxtrot
– Age [20s]: 23
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 19.857
– Pro Partner: 23.188
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: I got nothing, she shouldn’t EVEN be around. Foxtrot is an elegant dance with a flair of a personality thrown in. If Kendra doesn’t embrace the elegance I want her OUT. That’s all I got to say.

April 18, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class – Week 4

Classical Week! With a full orchestra… and that gawdy staircase out of the way. What dances will our stars have to tackle for the week?

Ralph and Karina – Waltz
– Age [40s]: 21
– Occupation [Actor]: 27.25
– Pro Partner: 23.333
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Is it just me or is Ralph “struggling” with the Latin dances as opposed to the Ballroom dance (Foxtrot). I’m looking for him to make his “come back” with the Waltz.

Kirstie and Maks – Waltz
– Age [60s]: 22
– Occupation [Actress]: 22.833
– Pro Partner: 25.4
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Kirstie, to me, seems to do much better in the Latin dances than the Ballroom dance (Quickstep)… then again the Quickstep required a lot of energy, a lot of which Kirstie did not have towards the end. The Waltz is a bit more paced than the Quickstep, so this should work out more to her favor.

Romeo and Chelsie – Paso Doble
– Age [20s]: 27.7
– Occupation [Singer]: 22.75
– Pro Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 25
Thoughts: Romeo needs to learn to be a man if he wants to dominate the Paso Doble. To me it seems like Romeo was just following Chelsie around like a little lap dog… ok… maybe not that extreme, but still. All kidding aside unless Romeo mans up… he may be next to bow out.

Chris and Cheryl – Paso Doble
– Age [40s]: 22.333
– Occupation [Athlete]: 27
– Pro Partner: 25.625
Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: I LOVE LOVE LOVE Chris when he’s doing the ballroom dances, not so much with the Latin… With all the theoretical masculinity he has to throw around in the Wrestling ring… could he channel that into the Paso Doble?

Petra and Dmitry – Paso Doble
– Age [30s]: 25.406
– Occupation [Model]: 29
– Pro Partner: 30
Predicted Score: 28
Thoughts: oK… Dmitry hasn’t been on the show long enough for good data to be derived… same with models… so Petra is going to be breaking some boundaries here. Petra does well when it comes to slow sympatheic dances, but with something like the Paso Doble? I don’t know… I’m a bit skeptical

Hines and Kym – Paso Doble
– Age [30s]: 25.406
– Occupation [NFL]: 23
– Pro Partner: 23.333
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Hines shines the most when he could infuse a bit of his personality into the dance. The Paso is a different animal and for some reason I just can’t see it happening… can you?

Chelsea and Mark – Viennese Waltz
– Age [20s]: 25.6
– Occupation [Disney]: 24.5
– Pro Partner: 21.5
Predicted Score: 23.867
Thoughts: So far Chelsea has been on a bit of an uphill climb… I’m thinking she’s going to peak too soon a la Sabrina Bryan… but who knows?

Sugar Ray & Anna – Viennese Waltz
– Age [50s]: 23
– Occupation [Boxer]: N/A
– Pro Partner: 23.333
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Sugar Ray has been having problems with posture… as thus this is going to take some work for him to get up to form…

Kendra and Louis – Viennese Waltz
– Age [20s]: 25.6
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 21.5
– Pro Partner: 20.75
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: I don’t know about you guys, but I rather liked Kendra in the Quickstep… so I’m expecting her to do decently in the Viennese Waltz.

**NOTE: N/A – There is no prior data in this particular category

April 11, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class: Week 3

Another week another set of dances, though I actually expected to have two dances going on tonight per norm… apparently the producers are choosing to buck the trend and try something new.

I will just say right now that I’m not exactly thrilled, but I’m a bit of a purist. Anyway… I digress.

Thanks to Heidi’s post earlier on who was dancing what… here are the calculated predictions for tonight. I apologize for the tardiness, I was on an extended weekend trip at the east coast and recently arrived just a few hours ago… 😀

Ralph and Karina – Rumba
– Age [40s]: 19.409
– Occupation [Actor]: 24.667
– Pro Partner: 21.8
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: With the past two dances, Ralph has been able to surprise the judges and America with his ability to pick up dances. Could he make that three? Possibly, he’s pretty smooth on the dancefloor thus far, and Rumba’s a smooth dance, but it’s rather slow too.

Kendra and Louis – Rumba
– Age [20s]: 24.643
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 20.4
– Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: As one could expect this is a dance that caters to the youth, as thus the expectation can be considered high for Kendra to meet expectations, except she seemed to have a nasty habit of being underwhelming, maybe the Rumba would help her strive for something more?

Kirstie and Maks – Rumba
– Age [60s]: 21.667
– Occupation [Actress]: 21.667
– Pro Partner: 26.2
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: What is there to say? She’s been great, gotta love her and she’s been a doll. It’s a slow dance, but it is also fairly hard on the bottle in other ways. But she’s been capable to pull out all the stops when necessary, could she do it again?

Romeo and Chelsie – Rumba
– Age [20s]: 24.643
– Occupation [Singer]: 23.75
– Pro Partner: 22
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: A young couple with a romantic dance? As long as it’s not as hammy as Marky Mark tends to be (shirtless last season anyone? *vomits*), I’ll be happy.

Chris and Cheryl – Rumba
– Age [40s]: 19.409
– Occupation [Athlete]: 21.5
– Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: Chris was a heck of a surprise last week, I’m tempted to say that he could make it two for two, especially with Cheryl as his partner. Here’s hoping.

Chelsea and Mark – ChaCha
– Age [20s]: 21.778
– Occupation [Disney]: 22.333
– Pro Partner: 25
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Wow, I forgot that Mark is fairly strong in the ChaCha, but considering that the Cha Cha is considered a flirty dance and well this is Mark afterall.

Sugar Ray & Anna – Paso Doble
– Age [50s]: 22.833
– Occupation [Boxer]: 22
– Pro Partner: 23.667
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: As a Boxer, they are constantly bouncing on their feet and hunched in. In the Paso Doble they have to expand and in some ways strut around the dance floor. Old habits die hard, and Anna’s got her work ahead of her to knock them out for Sugar Ray.

Petra and Dmitry – Waltz
– Age [30s]: 20.7
– Occupation [Model]: 21.667
– Pro Partner: 28
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Am I really surprised that Petra, a model, gets a ballroom dance? Not just any ballroom dance, but the waltz? Something smooth and graceful for her to float across the floor. *Yawn*

Wendy and Tony – Foxtrot
– Age [40s]: 19.455
– Occupation [Host]: 23
– Pro Partner: 21.4
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Wendy had trouble with dancing that required moving around quite a bit, and considering that her considerable assets tend to detract from the performance, here’s hoping that a dance that requires more smoothness than energy would help her out.

Hines and Kym – Samba
– Age [30s]: 23.385
– Occupation [NFL]: 21.2
– Pro Partner: 24.167
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Hines has been another celeb that’s been surprising the judges and America with his infectious personality. With an upbeat dance like the Samba, that personality could shine through, but I’m not quite as convinced with the dance itself… but the numbers tell me otherwise.

April 4, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class: Week 2

So… for anyone that remembers, in previous seasons I attempted to predict scores for the Monday night performance show. Sometimes far off the mark and other times pretty darn close.

This season I’m going to try something vastly different.

Similar to how I placed the stars in the pre-season by breaking down the averages of the seasons to professional, occupation and age, I am going to try to use a similar method when trying to predict scores from week to week.

See here you have it, a (hopefully) much more simplistic way to understand my scoring prediction calculations… good luck!

Ralph and Karina – Jive
– Age [40s]: 18.5
– Occupation [Actor]: 23
– Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: I don’t really agree with the score, knowing that he was able to pull of in the Foxtrot. But the Jive is a faster dance, and requires a lot of energy. So this tends to be cumbersome for older stars… let’s see how he pulls this off.

Kendra and Louis – Jive
– Age [20s]: 23.444
– Occupation [Reality TV]: 17.5
– Pro Partner: 19.5
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: I found it kind of odd that Louis hasn’t fared well with the Jive and his partners, then again, Reality TV stars don’t really fare well over all in dancing, however, she has youth behind her, that could help.

Chelsea and Mark – Jive
– Age [20s]: 23.444
– Occupation [Disney]: 25
– Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Easily one of the younger partnerships, the Jive caters to youth quite well, the question is how much would this pairing take that knowledge to their advantage? It’s Mark… if he goes campy, I quit… wait… it’s Mark… dammit.

Mike and Lacey – Jive
– Age [30s]: 22.043
– Occupation [Host]: 22
– Pro Partner: 28
Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Oddly enough, Lacey has never worked on the Jive with any of her partners prior to Week 6. So this could be interesting.

Sugar Ray & Anna – Jive
– Age [50s]: 20.333
– Occupation [Boxer]: 17
– Pro Partner: 21.333
Predicted Score: 19
Thoughts: Despite their quickness of feet in the ring, for some reason it could never transfer over to the dance floor. Could Sugar Ray buck the trend?

Petra and Dmitry – Jive
– Age [30s]: 22.043
– Occupation [Model]: 20.5
– Pro Partner: 27
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Models always did seem out of sorts in the Jive, mainly because she is so tall and with long limbs. The only “tall” celebrity that I could think of that actually looked comfortable in the Jive? Evan Lysacek, but he was an athlete, Petra is not.

Wendy and Tony – Quickstep
– Age [40s]: 20.417
– Occupation [Host]: 22
– Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: I firmly believe that the woman’s particular assets are going to be a hindrance versus a help… I mean seriously, since when is having big breasts a help? Ok… don’t answer that. All joking aside, I do believe they are going to be a hell of a hindrance especially with all the hopping around in the Quickstep, though the only thing worse than that? The Jive and THANK GOODNESS she’s not doing that.

Kirstie and Maks – Quickstep
– Age [60s]: 19.2
– Occupation [Actress]: 21.143
– Pro Partner: 23
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Kirstie made a hell of a splash on the ChaCha, but the Quickstep is another animal and a lot faster. She seemed a little winded after the ChaCha last week. As long as she doesn’t pull a Marie, it should be fine and I hope last week wasn’t just a one dance wonder.

Romeo and Chelsie – Quickstep
– Age [20s]: 23.7
– Occupation [Singer]: 23.286
– Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: Another young partnership that should take advantage of the energy that the Quickstep provides. However, Romeo could have trouble with posture, posture, posture… but considering he has sex appeal for days, does it really matter this early in the season?

Chris and Cheryl – Quickstep
– Age [40s]: 20.417
– Occupation [Athlete]: 20
– Pro Partner: 21.429
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: An athlete in their 40s? Ok, maybe not “athlete” per say, but close enough. In all honesty though, I don’t see the Quickstep being a dance that would come easily to him. I see a lower score than the calculation says, but meh… I’m not going to argue with numbers, are you?

Hines and Kym – Quickstep
– Age [30s]: 21.92
– Occupation [NFL]: 21.571
– Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Footballers shouldn’t have trouble with this dance, they’re suppose to be quick on their feet. Hines doesn’t have an excuse to score decently.

March 28, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 12 Stat Class: Who has the Edge?

So… before the start of last season I attempted to place the “stars” via a long series of calculations in hopes to predict who would leave when during the course of the season.

Needless to say, although I was off in some cases I was also spot on in other cases.

In case you have forgotten what factors I’ve used to calculate the placement of the stars here’s a bit of a refresher: DWTS Season 11 Stat Class

Now it would be interesting to note how the last season affecting the standings of each pro… so below is what the pro ranks are AFTER Season 11 followed by what they were PRIOR to Season 11:
1. 1.) Derek Hough – 7 Seasons
2. 2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3. 4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 4 Seasons
4. 3.) Cheryl Burke – 10 Seasons
5. 7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
6. 10.) Mark Ballas – 7 Seasons
7. 13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 9 Seasons
8. 5.) Kym Johnson – 8 Seasons
9. 11.) Tony Dovolani – 10 Seasons
10. 14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 6 Seasons
11. 8.) Karina Smirnoff – 8 Seasons
12. 9.) Louis van Amstel – 7 Seasons
13. 6.) Chelsie Hightower – 4 Seasons
14. 12.) Corky Ballas – 2 Season
15. 15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16. 16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17. 17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18. 18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons

As one could see, even if a pro does not participate in a season their overall rank is still affected based on those that are participating.

And for sake of completeness here is how the various age groups rank after Season 11:
1. Teens (below 20 years)
2. 20s (20 thru 29)
3. 30s (30 thru 39)
4. 60s (60 thru 69)
5. 40s (40 thru 49)
6. 70s (70 thru 79)
7. 50s (60 thru 69)
8. 80s (above 79 years)

Now it is important to note that the ages represent the age that a celeb is at while they are participating in the show. So if someone is 29 when they were on the show and is in their early-30s now the age group they are representing is that of their 20s.

And finally we have occupations. I tried to use the primary occupation that a celeb is most known for since we do have a lot of crossover celebrities. This category probably contains the most variables when attempting to calculate ranks:
1. NFL athlete
2. Olympian (one that has been to the Olympics AND medaled)
3. Band Member (ie 98 Degrees, Spice Girls, NKOTB, etc)
4. Disney (anyone that got their start w/ Disney, Billy Ray Cyrus is NOT part of this group)
5. Entertainer (ie Wayne Newton, Marie and Donny Osmond)
6. Soap Opera Star
7. Singer (Master P, Billy Ray Cyrus, Toni Braxton, Lil Kim, Aaron Carter, Michael Bolton)
8. Actor
9. Athlete (ie Helio, Monica Seles, Ty Murray, Chuck Liddell, Louie)
10. Host (ie Kenny Mayne, Jerry Springer, Lezza Gibbons, Brooke Burke, Erin Andrews)
11. Actress
12. NBA athlete
13. Boxer (ie Evander Holyfield, Laila Ali, Floyd Mayweather)
14. Reality TV Star
15. Other (anyone that does not fit in any other category)
16. Model
17. Comedian

Now that we know which celebs are part of Season 12, it is time to calculate and attempt to predict how they would place in the upcoming season.

For issues of time and ease of understanding I am only going notate which group each celeb fits per category and their rank, as well as their overall rank.

SUGAR RAY LEONARD
Age: 50s (Rank: 11)
Occupation: Boxer (Rank: 9)
Pro Partner: Anna Trebunskaya (Rank: 8 )
OVERALL RANK: 11
I really don’t know what to say about this. I mean Anna has done well recently, but for every high placement she has a low placement. Other than Laila Ali, Boxers typically do not rank high in their season despite the natural fast feet. But the first to go? I could see others more likely to fit that bill…

WENDY WILLIAMS
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Tony Dovolani (Rank: 7)
OVERALL RANK: 10
Female hosts tend to do better than male hosts in the overall standings, but that is also dependent on what they have come in with and if memory serves most of those female hosts has had some prior dance experience, be it ballet, contemporary, etc. Does Wendy have any of that? Not to my knowledge but things could change. Still, personally, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see her as one of the first to go.

RALPH MACCHIO
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Actor (Rank: 4)
Pro Partner: Karina Smirnoff (Rank: 9)
OVERALL RANK: 9
Actors tend to do better than actresses, granted that’s mainly in part of the viewing demographic. However with other better eye candy on the horizon, does he really stand a chance?

KENDRA WILKINSON
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Reality TV Star (Rank: 10)
Pro Partner: Louis van Amstel (Rank: 10)
OVERALL RANK: 8
Another bunny decides that she wanted to come out and play. Thank goodness her first dance isn’t the quickstep, else I may have to walk away do to some distraction or another. I mean, having a bounce is one thing, but bouncing all over the place is quite another. Still the ChaCHa isn’t exactly an improvement in the bounce department, unless Louis knows how to keep the puppies tame. Being young has its advantages, but that only goes so far.

KRISTIE ALLEY
Age: 60s (Rank: 7)
Occupation: Actress (Rank: 8 )
Pro Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (Rank: 5)
OVERALL RANK: 7
Maksim has had his taste in the top three for a few seasons now, but Kristie is coming up in her age. To me she’s the most “known” but that is only because I loved the “Look Whose Talking” movie series with John Travolta. It will be interesting to see what she comes up with.

PETRA NEMCOVA
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Model (Rank: 11)
Pro Partner: Dmitry Chaplin (Rank: 3)
OVERALL RANK: 6
Ah yes, the prettiest couple. I am a Dmitry ‘groupie’, so any chance that he could stay on the show longer is a happy day for me. But models tend to do poorly when it comes to placement beating out comedians! Ah well, I’m crossing my fingers.

ROMEO
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Singer (Rank: 3)
Pro Partner: Chelsie Hightower (Rank: 11)
OVERALL RANK: 5
YES!!! You have no idea how excited I was to hear that they asked him to come on this season. He has GOT to be an improvement over his dad. His pro partner is arguably an improvement (for those that have forgotten, when he was originally asked to join, his partner was slated Ashly DelGrosso now Costa but he was replaced by his dad due to injury). So I am very interested to see how this would pan out.

CHRIS JERICHO
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Athlete (Rank: 5)
Pro Partner: Cheryl Burke (Rank: 2)
OVERALL RANK: 4
As yes, Cheryl gets another athlete, there isn’t much to be said, because she knows how to get an athlete to work. So what’s the point?

MIKE CATHERWOOD
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Lacey Schwimmer (Rank: 1)
OVERALL RANK: 3
I don’t know him. Do you? I can’t comment on someone that I have no idea about, I’m sorry.

HINES WARD
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: NFL athlete (Rank: 1)
Pro Partner: Kym Johnson (Rank: 6)
OVERALL RANK: 2
NFL players have a tendency to finish in the top half of the season celebs, with a good number of them finishing near the top three. Hines has his work cut out with him if he is expected to keep the NFL legacy alive. At least he isn’t a quarterback. *evil cackle*

CHELSEA KANE
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Disney (Rank: 2)
Pro Partner: Mark Ballas (Rank: 4)
OVERALL RANK: 1
Don’t ask me how this happened. But it has happened again. In last year’s pre-season ranking I had Bristol Palin and Kyle Massey in the top three and look what happened! I am just saying that at this point, anything can happen.

And there you have it, the final odds as calculated by my normalized calculations derived from the last eleven seasons. Normally I wouldn’t agree with a good number of these ranks, but as it stands, numbers don’t lie and last year just reminded me of that. So let’s just sit back, relax, and see what’s going to happen this season.

Enjoy!

March 20, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 10 – Finale Week Costuming

Randal Christensen had some “behind the seams dish” to dish about with Stylelist again. Here’s a take for what went on with the costumes for the finale nights. Be sure to read more at the link.

Bristol Palin and Mark Ballas: Christensen was amused when the teen activist tossed the tricked-out gorilla suit she wore earlier this season. “It served its purpose and was so last week,” he deadpans. “It was a funny moment and a fun jab at the last time they jived.” Besides, Christensen was more focused on the blinged-out blue jacket he designed for Ballas. “I was surprised we made it to the finale before he asked for it. He loves his bling-encrusted costumes.”

As for Palin’s sexy, lace freestyle booty short bodysuit, Christensen says the teen activist was in complete charge of her look. She asked for fringe to be added to the suit and loved her blinged-out boots and fishnet stockings. “It was fun seeing Bristol’s confidence grow each week,” says Christensen.

Kyle Massey and Lacey Schwimmer: The teen stars freestyle “Tootsie Roll” rapper medallion was hand-made by a crafty member of Christensen’s team who used gold foil lycra layered over plastic which was tacked on to keep Massey from chipping his teeth while he danced. Really! As for their bright-yellow sneakers: “We’re lucky we are in Hollywood where you can still find that kind of ’90’s thing around,” he says.

Jennifer Grey and Derek Hough: Hough was so pleased with Grey’s lattice-backed paso doble dress he twirled her around to praise Christensen’s design on national television. The compliment was, “quite thrilling actually” says the designer, whose concept for the gown was to keep it sophisticated but theatrical with the daringly low back. “The splash of garnet silk satin was especially effective when it was ripped off to be Derek’s matador cape,” he notes.

Grey made a deliberate decision not to imitate her signature “Dirty Dancing” finale performance instead dancing to “Mashed Potato” another song from the iconic film. “We were quite seriously paying homage to ‘Baby’ while trying to put a bit of originality into the costume,” says Christensen. And while Grey boasts “rock hard” abs at 50, Christensen added a panel of nude mesh to her hot pink two piece to “make sure she was comfortable.” Scattered crystals finished the look.

I loved Jennifer and Derek’s choices. Jennifer’s gold fringe costume had “Champion” written all over it from the get go. So, who had your favorite costumes for the finale?

Randall Christensen also dished on his favorite Finale costumes of all time on the show so far. See what costumes he picked in a cool slide gallery >>> HERE!

So, I wonder what Randall Christensen will have in store for DWTS Season 12? I wrap this post up with this little memory I don’t think we’ll ever soon forget. lol

Len Goodman to Kyle Massey: It was as though you were engulfed in a huge feather duster and you kept popping out here and there.

November 28, 2010 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud. To view my photography site, see Lisa Kay Photography.