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DWTS All Stars, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers

I’m going to repeat what I said in the comments in another post early yesterday:

Congratulations to all three ladies for making it to the finale – you all won. Seriously, you did.

Kelly wins because she blew everyone’s expectations out of the water. I don’t think she should win, but she should be extremely proud of what she’s accomplished. I don’t think this was really a win for Val, but those of you who are regulars already know what I think on this subject. :-)

Melissa and Tony – huge winners. Melissa showed a lot of growth and she’s just so NICE and likeable. I really love the girl and I won’t be devastated if she wins. Tony? Fan-freakin’-tastic season for him. He’s often been considered, by myself and others, as too reliant on the syllabus and often unimaginative in terms of chore – he blew that away this season. Fantastic job. Yes, huge risk with the freestyle because the slow, quiet ones don’t often win, but you get credit for balls. Although I’m a Shawn/Derek fan, I may cry if Tony wins because I’m a real sucker for that story (and that’s the reason why I think they may just win). (Side Note: Intel says you WILL cry if they air Derek’s confessional with Shawn. Apparently he’s very emotional and the implication from what I heard  is because it is indeed his last season. I could go on, but I won’t. He’s also apparently surprised by his own reaction.)

Shawn and Derek – hands down the best dancers of the season and not only that, Derek out did even himself in terms of choreography and creativity. He really is the King of Choreography, to quote numerous media outlets and Adam Shankman.  Naysayers that claim she’s all tricks and lifts? I will quote Bill Clinton – it’s simple ARITHMETIC.  Yes, I did just quote Bill Clinton because it’s appropriate. :-) Take Melissa’s Lindy, Caveman Hustle, AT and Freestyle and COUNT. Then count all the lifts/tricks in Shawn’s entire season. Get back to me with the results. Heh. :-) Anyway, regardless of the actual WIN (which they may not get) they are the biggest winners of all. Derek has set a standard that few can measure up to, as has Shawn.  In a years’ time, when people look back on this season, Derek and Shawn’s will be the dances that most easily spring to mind – although I have no doubt that some will go to their grave denying that fact. :-) That’s a win, no matter how you slice it.

Anyway, I think it comes down to Melissa and Shawn and, as of right now, Shawn’s fans had serious work to do in order to make up the deficit. Everything hinges on the instant dance. If the margin stays the same or gets wider between Shawn and Melissa, I have to give it to Melissa – too many people are buying into the pity party and Derek’s fantastic record may come back to haunt him. Derek – please leave this show. You are so destined for bigger and better things. You are not fully appreciated and you won’t be until you’re gone.

Anyway, what are our numbers after the first two dances?

I’m a firm believer in two things:

–          The judges have an overwhelming desire to be RIGHT. Meaning that they will sway their scoring tonight so that it reflects what they’ve been told about the voting. The only question is how stupid they are about it – do they really understand the math? Doubtful.

–          The overwhelming need for the producers to have DRAMA. The need to make it a horse race at all times. JR was not in the lead going into the final night, neither was Donald. I’m sure there are others.  I don’t think they have a stake in who wins, as long as it’s exciting. Do I know what this means? Not until it’s over. :-)

These two things – which are mainly observations that I will post on in more detail in a week or so – lead me to not really know what’s going to happen. Did they overscore Kelly and over hype Melissa because that’s how the voting is going??  Or did they over penalize Shawn because she’s running away with it and want a come from behind win?? What story are they trying to sell??  Because rest assured, this show is all about the story.  Normally I would say – Occam’s Razor, which states (roughly): The simplest explanation is the most likely to be accurate. Of course, that also assumes that you don’t have 15 seasons worth of data to study on which to base your theories. :-)

Of course, that doesn’t take into account actual VOTING. And at the end of the show last night, my feeling was similar to Courtney’s but I’ll be more blunt about it – the pity vote/good story vote for Melissa and Tony is a lot stronger than simply amazing dancing.  And that is nearly always true on this show. Yes, Melissa is a good dancer too, but in terms of WOW factor? No contest.  But, I think that Melissa will likely win because of that prevailing “Oh, we must pick them because they’ve never won before.” In my mind, DWTS has become pee wee baseball. Everyone must have a trophy.  Sad. Simple minded.  It will lead to less exciting dancing and mediocrity.  Anyway…

As you can see, Derek and Shawn have a ways to go if all things remain the same. In order for Shawn to WIN, she needs both of the following things:

–          Shawn needs to get 11,400 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, AND;

–          Shawn needs to get 17,100 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

Not a huge amount, normally, but this is the finale. Who knows? I honestly don’t know. Besides, everything hinges on the instant dance. I can’t imagine that anyone will get a 30 on it, but let’s say they all get 27. That would then mean that Shawn needs both of the following:

–          Shawn needs to get 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, AND;

–          Shawn needs to get 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

That’s a pretty sizeable difference. It also puts Kelly in easy striking difference of Melissa. Prior to tonight’s dancing, Kelly needs the following to win:

–          Kelly needs for Shawn to NOT get 11,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Kelly needs to get 5,700 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

That doesn’t look too hard does it? Well, it’s the finale. But look how an even distribution of instant dance points tonight helps her. Helps Shawn too. The only person it doesn’t help is Melissa, because it closes the gap a good bit.  If all three ladies get 27, Kelly would then need all of the following to win:

–          Kelly would need for Shawn to NOT get 7,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Kelly would need to get 3,900 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

Heh. Yes, Kelly is in striking distance of Melissa…but Shawn is also a LOT closer to Kelly. In this scenario, I could see Shawn winning and Kelly taking second. Will it go that way? No idea.  I tend to doubt it.

The ONLY beneficial way for this to go for Melissa is if she wins the instant dance round. If she takes it, I think it solidifies a win for her. If she gets second or third, it’s anybody’s game.   Let’s take a look at what happens if they rank them and Melissa gets second place, Kelly taking third; that is, Shawn gets a 30, Melissa 28 and Kelly a 26 – I don’t know they’re going to do this, only that they have done it in the past. If that’s how it plays out, Shawn would still be in second place with 87 points, but only by a point. Kelly would be in third with 85 points.  For Kelly to win in this situation, she would need BOTH of the following to happen:

–          Kelly would need 7,700 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, AND;

–          Kelly would need 11,600 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

For Shawn to Win, she would need for Kelly to not get those votes to pass her and she would ONLY need 3,900 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

There are a hundred different scenarios that I could expound on at length, but since I don’t have a good feel for what it is they’re going for or if they are at the point they’re going to throw it to the viewers – I’m not going to bother. Heck, they could even go back to giving out a 10, a 9, and an 8 which gives the edge back to Melissa.

At the end of the day, my feeling is the voters will go the sympathy route of “Tony and Melissa have never won before” – which is stupid. This is the all star season – it’s supposed to be the best of the best. How can you be the best of the best if you’ve NEVER won before? The simple answer is – you can’t.

My pick (but not my favorite):

Winner: Melissa

Runner up: Shawn

November 27, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS All Stars, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Some of you may recall what I’ve said on more than one occasion in various blogs on this site. I’ve said…when the judges get REAL, someone who has been previously deluded gets mad. And that, my friends, is Val and his big bro, who really needs to stay off twitter during the show.  I think that’s all the attention that I will give these children – really what more can be said about them at this point?

Anyway, Shawn and Melissa did great, although I thought that Melissa’s AT was overscored by a point or two for being too soft (as per usual). She also made the mistake of her Lindy – too many lifts such that some of them were a bit messy. I also find it amusing that when given the opportunity Melissa and Tony LOAD UP on the lifts and tricks (Lindy and AT…and the caveman hustle, for that matter), but some fans whine about Shawn. Derek stripped their AT down to technical cool – it was also a tad soft, but it was a better dance than Melissa’s, despite what CAI thinks. Like I said in the comments – I want Melissa in the finale, so I’ll live with a tiny bit of overscoring. :-) But if Shawn didn’t deserve a 30, Melissa didn’t either.

Apolo?? AWESOME Rumba – far better than Kelly’s. I will confess that I don’t know enough about Jazz to know if that was good or not. I liked it, despite a couple minor difficulties. But hell, Emmitt slipped last week and got 10’s, why not Apolo?? Emmitt was overscored on his first dance and, as Courtney pointed out on Twitter, it’s this sort of scoring that sends better dancers home. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Here is our scoreboard after two dances – and my top three coincide with the Judges Top 3. Awesome. Not that it means anything.

At the bottom, we have Emmitt and Kelly. I think that if Kelly or Emmitt manage to stick around it will be at Melissa’s expense and I hope like hell that doesn’t happen because Melissa is ten times the dancer that Kelly is. But, that’s the funny thing about an All Star season – you aren’t guaranteed a spot just because you’re a good dancer. That goes for Apolo and Shawn too – no guarantees. Read more..

November 20, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS All Stars, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

If you want to look at the numbers from last week before they added in two more dances, take a look at DBTN Week 7.

I’m not even going to discuss the judging tonight – it was awful from the opening dance all the way to the end. Len and his horrible comment to Shawn – I think maybe he heard Derek say “f#$k you” with his choreo or something.  People who got perfect scores shouldn’t have while others were excessively punished.  I feel bad for Apolo’s trio going after Shawn cuz he seemed pretty tame after.  I love Emmitt, but a 30 on his trio?? No way. Len’s treatment of Gilles (aka Good) is inexplicable.  And that V. Waltz from Kelly?? WHAT?? Crack is wack, ya’ll. Ridiculous. Oh, look, I talked all about the judging after I said I wouldn’t. :-)   That’s cuz it’s taking the enjoyment out of the show for me.  Anyway, on with the show:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Bye Bye Kirstie. I don’t think there’s any way she beats that spread. She was in the bottom two previously, when the spread was much smaller.  Since it’s a double elimination, she needs TWO of the following to happen, to avoid going home:

–          Kirstie needs 19,550 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 20,320 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 21,100 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt or Kelly, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 22,670 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 31,250 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

I’m sorry, Kirstie fans. I do wish I could say I thought she was staying. Unfortunately, I think she’s the only sure thing of the night. I would much rather Gilles and Kelly leave before her, but I don’t see that happening. Read more..

November 13, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

As everyone knows by now, no one went home this week. But in case you want to know how the judges scores are going to affect who ultimately goes home, I thought I would run the numbers for the week. After the Week 8 dances, I’ll run the numbers again and you can compare.

Here are the Week 7 scores and percentages:

As you can see, Melissa appears to be safely at the top of the leader board. So was Sabrina. The difference this week is that there is a MUCH larger spread between the top and the bottom. Unfortunately for Melissa (and others) there are two more dance scores to be added to each celeb before anyone is eliminated, which will tighten the margins and make it easier for someone to go home.  When Sabrina went home, there was only 6.5 points between the top and the bottom. Right now there are 10 points between Kirstie and Melissa – but that is likely to change.

I think it likely that Shawn and Apolo are safe – of course we can’t be sure, but that’s what my instincts are saying. I’m also inclined to believe that Emmitt is safe. But, this is where predicting who goes home gets extremely difficult…almost impossible…to call.

Looking at the list of the celebrities that are left, I’m inclined to think that Melissa is the one in most danger when you aren’t looking at the scores and the margins. Just looking at the list, she seems (all other things being equal) like the one most likely to get the boot. But she’s at the top of the leader board. So, what would it take for her to actually leave??  ALL of the following would have to happen for Melissa to be eliminated:

–          Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Apolo would have to get 24,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Gilles would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Emmitt would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Kelly would have to get 12,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Shawn would have to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast.

Read more..

November 8, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 6 – A Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective on Sabrina Bryan

So, what happened to Sabrina is pretty easy to explain. Everyone covered the spread.  Period. She was at the top of the leaderboard and didn’t need to get MORE votes than anyone else, she just needed to get enough votes to prevent them from catching up to her.

The table below shows Sabrina versus each of the other dancers, the percentage between them and then the number of votes per million votes cast that that individual needs to bypass Sabrina and stay safe.

Ultimately, every single dancer got at least one more than that number of votes per million votes cast than Sabrina and Sabrina was, therefore, eliminated.  Looking at the numbers, above, you can see that it wouldn’t be really hard for anyone other than Kelly to get the votes.  Those are small damn numbers. And if Sabrina isn’t getting many votes, just how hard is it for Kelly? Spare me the “Power of the soap fan” spiel. That’s nuts – if ya’ll were that powerful Soap’s audiences wouldn’t be shrinking and they wouldn’t be getting cancelled left and right. And Kelly wasn’t the only person who beat Sabrina – EVERYONE did. Which means she just wasn’t getting the votes.  This says nothing, really, about Kelly and everything about Sabrina. Read more..

November 1, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, tonight just pissed me off – even before we got to the word “frippery”.  Ahem. Melissa had a bench and a campfire and a whole bunch of leg lifts. Kelly had a stage coach and the standard Chmerkovskiy run up the stairs…and Shawn has frippery. In what f&*king universe does Len give Shawn and Kirstie Alley the same score – two weeks in a row. This show has jumped the shark, totally.

Okay, the truly hilarious part about “frippery” is watching Derek mouth the word silently – you could almost see him wonder what the hell that word means. LOL.  :-)

Gilles? I have this urge to punch him. Repeatedly.

My favorite dance of the night was Apolo’s – finally scored him appropriately. I do wonder if Shawn’s turn is next or if she’s running away with the votes. But I have to say – I didn’t see much difference in quality between Sabrina, Melissa and Shawn. Shawn had a tad bit of stiffness due to her knee (think she could stop screwing around with Sabrina?? Love that all those CMM girls are bffs, but come on) but still. I didn’t see a two point difference between the two of them. Instead, over the course of two weeks there is a four point difference. Total bull.  But this is all about protecting Sabrina and Melissa for a week or two.

I could go on all night. I’ll stop. I should be used to the storyboarding of this show by now.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, I think Kelly might just be toast.  Perhaps they want Kirstie around so she can be the easy elimination next week when the judges pull the trigger. It’s a theory Courtney and I discussed a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.  But ya know, there were so many points handed out that there are pretty small margins between all the dancers. You think Sabrina is safe?? I wouldn’t be so sure.  She probably is, but I don’t know I would put any serious cash on it. Kelly likely protects Sabrina…but we’ll see. What does Kelly need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following:

–          Kelly needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–          Kelly needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kelly needs 8,180 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Kelly needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Kelly needs 11,200 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Kelly needs 11,900 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Kelly needs 14,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, those are some pretty small numbers at the bottom half of the leaderboard. Unfortunately for Kelly, those lower people are Kirstie and Emmitt. That said, Kirstie has been in the bottom two and Kelly has never been tested up to this point. Can she get the votes?? I honestly don’t know. My gut says no and that they over played their showmance.  Or, are they petting Kirstie a lot because they know she’s going home and they want her to go out on a high??  Dare we hope for a Shocking Gilles elimination?? Unfortunately, probably not.

But back to Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick around?  She needs ONE of the following in order to stay tomorrow:

–          Kirstie needs Kelly to not cover the spread, OR

–          Kirstie needs 750 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 3,720 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Now, if the shippers are out of control, then Emmitt could actually be the one in trouble here. Is Kirstie getting those kind of votes over someone like Emmitt?? Well, Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork – but I don’t know.  I have a hard time seeing Kelly cover that spread, so it may be irrelevant.  I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Oh Emmitt, are you getting votes? I keep forgetting you’re on the show, but that could just be me. What does Emmitt need to stick around?? ONE of the following:

–          Emmitt needs Kelly and Kirstie to not cover the spread.

–          Emmitt needs 2,230 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, the spreads are too small. I don’t think that Shawn or Gilles are in any danger, but that the bottom two is two out of Kelly, Kirstie and Emmitt.  Based on the scoring, I’m thinking that they have Kelly down as the next boot, possibly because ratings are involved and she’s not getting votes anyway. They are at the point in the show where just about everyone is popular for one reason or another and they not only want to have the best dancers in the final six, but they want to have a guilt free elimination next week when they (the judges) have to make the call. They will be somewhat backlash free if that person is Kirstie.  That would leave them with a final six of Shawn, Apolo, Melissa, Gilles, Sabrina and possibly Emmitt.  That’s pretty damn good. But it’s an all star season – it should be.

So, I think that the bottom two are going to be Kelly and Kirstie with Kelly going home. Could be Kirstie going home, but I’m betting Kelly. I would not be surprised to be wrong.  If it’s a big surprise, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. Cuz I gotta wrap THIS up. :-)

October 30, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

This week, this particular post doesn’t mean a hill of beans because, as I’m sure you’ve all figured out by now, there was no elimination. But I’ve had a few requests for it so you can see how your favorites are doing. EVERYTHING could change on Monday night and I have some confidence that it will. I predict Sabrina stays in first place to get her past this particular week – and maybe past the following week. I think that Kirstie and Kelly – and maybe Melissa – are the next designated people who are considered disposable by the producers/judges.

Yes. Heidi is having a very cynical week. :-)

Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers for this week:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Oh dear, everyone favorite over the top showmance which gets more forced by the day is in serious trouble. At least, this week. You’ll notice that everyone but Kirstie has at least a percentage point lead on her. That translates to more votes than I would be comfortable with if I were them – roughly 10,000. What does Kelly have to do to stick around beyond this pretend elimination week? ONE of the following:

–          Kelly needs to get 2,250 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–           Kelly needs to get 10,150 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kelly needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

–          Kelly needs to get 15,750 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Kelly has been relatively protected up to now by people with either much lower scores or fanbase issues of their own. But that protection is largely gone this week. Lots of people would be tempted to say that Kirstie is going to go because she was in the bottom two last week with Bristol. But Kirstie beat the spread on Bristol that was about three times the spread between her and Kelly. This is the part of the all star season where it gets really hard, cuz I’m really not sure if Kelly’s got juice or not. I’m inclined to say “not” – when compared to Kirstie. And I don’t think there is anyone else she can catch. Don’t give me crap about Soap fanbases – soaps are being cancelled left and right. Not to mention that it’s all relative – someone has to go, so you have to consider if other fanbases are bigger or more passionate.

But let’s assume that Kelly finds a miraculous way to safety. What does Kirstie needs need in order to stick around??  She needs ONE of the following:

–          Kirstie needs to get 7,900 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kirstie needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs to get 13,500 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Based on those numbers, if there was an elimination this week I think it easily comes down to Kelly and Kirstie. I think the only other two people in potential danger would be Melissa and Sabrina – but the margins are too great this week. I think. We won’t really know until it happens. The path forward from here is really not clear. Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork lately, so it’s possible he’s in the lower tier as well.

But, when asked to make a guess, my guess is that Kelly would go home. If not her, Kirstie. Next week, we add a ton of points and everything can change. In any case, you can be sure the margins get smaller.

 

October 25, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. As Courtney mentioned, the abundance of points handed out means that the margins are shrunk a bit over all. While that might spell disaster for a few pairs, it also HELPS Apolo tremendously. Why, do you ask?? Well, he has to do next to nothing – like, maybe, take off his shirt – to get past a couple of the lesser known females. Throw in the minor disaster in the middle of their dance and poor, weepy Karina and you have sympathy votes out the wazoo. I saw you people in the comments saying you had to throw some votes his way. That’s how the sympathy vote works. Even without it, I doubt Apolo is in any danger. Let me tell you why…here’s how the leader board stacks up:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Ya see? Yeah, Apolo is near the bottom, but see how close he is in points to the people above him? The points seem like more, but look at the percentages. Between Apolo and Kelly there is LESS THAN one percentage point. That’s what happens when so many freakin’ points are handed out. Now, maybe  I will turn out to be way wrong here, and really with the way this season is, I wouldn’t be surprised – but I don’t think he’s going anywhere. And maybe I’m in denial. :-) Cuz I love me some Apolo. Not as much as I love me some Derek (he played the drums!! :::swoon::: I’ve always been a sucker for musicians) but still. :-)

So, what about our bottom dwellers?? Hmmmm….I guess we find out once again this week what their competition is made of. Really, again, it’s just as much about the other ladies and their staying power as it is about Bristol and Kirstie.  Kirstie is the low woman on the totem pole – what all does she need to survive yet again?? She needs ONE of the following:

–     Kirstie needs 6,220 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol to stick around, OR;

–     Kirstie needs 14,000 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–     Kirstie needs 17,110 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;

–     Kirstie needs 18,670 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–     Kirstie needs 21,775 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–     Kirstie needs 23,330 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

–     Kirstie needs 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn/Gilles. Read more..

October 16, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS All Stars, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Anyone else find it somewhat (ok, not at all) coincidental that the two women likely in the most trouble with voters were also at the top of the leaderboard, yet had dances that were not even close to tied for the best of the night?? Don’t get me wrong, I like both Melissa and Kelly very much, but even with docked points for breaking the rules, Shawn and Apolo belong at the top of the leaderboard. The only thing that comes to my mind is that they are doing fine in votes, and Melissa and Kelly both need protection from Kirstie and Bristol. Why do they warrant protection and Drew and Helio don’t?? Well…Drew and Helio don’t work for ABC. Melissa and Kelly (and Gilles) both do work for ABC.  There are no coincidences.  Sure, Apolo and Shawn are likely fine – but it chaps my ass that for two weeks in a row Apolo has gotten screwed and this week Shawn joins him. There is no way – no way – that either Melissa or Kelly deserve to be a full point and a half ahead of Apolo.  I say, give them each a 25.5 or 26, Apolo a 27 or 28 and Shawn a 27 (only because she broke the rules).

Note to Mark, Louis and Maks – Derek is the example that you all should look to when being chastised for breaking the rules. All Derek and Shawn wanted from Len was the admission that he liked the dance very much. That is telling. They both knew full well they were going to be docked – the only question was by how much.  I’m still in awe of how much air Derek got when doing the jump split or whatever it’s called. He got higher than Shawn did! As for Apolo – honey, sexy ain’t work for you, you is HOT. Ten times hotter than Gilles. Not like that is a stretch this season. :-)

ANYway, let’s analyze who has the best shot of sticking around and who…doesn’t.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

 

Well, I hate to say it, but barring a miracle, I think Drew might be toast. That makes me sad, because I like Drew, and Bristol? Not so much. Kirstie only needs one more vote than him and Bristol needs a number that she easily got over him once before.  I have a hard time imagining a scenario where she doesn’t do it again, especially since I think most viewers are going to view her with sympathy, thanks to how the show aired the footage last night. Anyway, let’s look at what Bristol has to do to stick around. She needs TWO of the following:

–          Bristol needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie or Drew, OR;

–          Bristol needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Bristol needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Sabrina, Helio or Apolo, OR;

–          Bristol needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.

Hmmm….looking at it like that, I’m not entirely sure that Kelly or Melissa are safe. But they probably are – I think Drew is toast in this scenario. The question is – who else is toast?? Bristol, as the low scorer, needs to jump over TWO people in order to stay, not just one.  Boy oh boy – tonight could be interesting. My gut tells me that since Helio already made a trip to the bottom two, that he’s the likely second eliminee (sorry Brooke). Emmitt might be over rated with the audience, or one of the top three could be in trouble simply out of fans certainty that they are safe.  Or it could be someone else in the middle of the pack.  Anyway… Read more..

October 9, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Congratulations to Tom Bergeron, Emmy Winner!!

Tom Bergeron won the Emmy for outstanding Reality Host tonight! Very well deserved and its about damn time!

His acceptance speech was quintessential Bergeron, closing by thanking Jeff Probst for not being nominated. :-)

ADDING: Vogue here and here are some fun photos from the night of Tom and Carrie Anne in their finest at the Nokia Theatre in Los Angeles, California!

Lots more pictures of the night at Zimbio Pictures and Getty Images including judge Bruno Tonioli and former contestants from Dancing With The Stars.

Troupe member Oksana Dmytrenko also posted this picture of herself and John Birkitt going to the Emmy’s at her facebook page. What do you think? Just beautiful!

September 23, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)