PureDWTS: Predictions

How I came about to predicting not only the scores but also the possible elimination progress it would probably be best to provide some of the original posts and provide expository as to the evolution of the prediction process… in this case primarily the pre-season eliminations and then the scorecards from Season 14.

It was during Season 10 (April 2010) that I started to blog for PureDWTS… since most of the normal blogging topics have been taken over by the other bloggers, I wanted to try something new and decided to try my hand at predicting the scores for the remaining celebrities at that time. In order to do this I had to go through all the previous seasons and gather all the scores and data and figure out ways to compare the current season with the previous seasons.

So I started with looking through all the possible variables of all the celebrities from seasons past. The obvious was to use the various professional dancers as one of the primary variables. Another blatant variable was the age groups of the celebrities starting from the teens and moving onto those in their 80s (20s, 30s, 40s, etc). However, to me having two obvious variables didn’t seem to be enough, so what to use as the third… after watching the remainder of the season the answer came in a bolt of lightning: all celebrities came from different paths of life. Actors, athletes, media personalities, vocalists, etc… it is also via one’s occupation that one could surmise the dancing skill set, no matter how general.

With that information in mind I started to quickly explain my thoughts in Season 11 and applying it to the announced celebrities.
- Age (teens, 20s, 30s, 40s, etc)
- Occupation (actor/actress, singer, athlete, etc)
- Professional Dancer

So applying much of the same breakdown from Season 11′s predictions, I applied the formula to Season 12′s celebrities. This time also “ranking” the groups within the categories… and again for Season 13 first without the knowledge of the professional partners and later with the integration of the professional partner.

When 2012 came around, I figured a quick reminder of how the original categories were broken down was in order, at least prior to the elimination predictions that would come soon after. In the past few seasons I ended up ranking the predictions as well, normally from whom would leave first to the predicted winner.

One thing I added for Season 14 that I have not done in previous seasons was provide a kind of scorecard that compares what I have originally predicted to what has happened per episode. As you go through the following pages you’ll notice how even for comparison purposes this has evolved over the season:
- Scorecard: Weeks 1 thru 4
- Scorecard: Weeks 4 thru 7
- Scorecard: Week 8
- Scorecard: Week 9
- Scorecard: Week 10

Over the course of the 2012 off season there are a few series of posts that would reflect, analyse and study not only the upcoming season of Dancing with the Stars which was announced to be an All-Star Season, but also analyzing the past seasons now that I feel more adept at the calculated predictions for eliminations and weekly scores.

As I create more statistical and analytical posts over at PureDWTS they will be broken down and explained more in detail here so as not to get lost in translation.