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Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Week 2 Predictions!

As always many thanks to Heidi for this weeks’ Who is Dancing What and When post.

From Heidi’s post here is how the couples will stack up in accordance to past data:

As expected only Peta Murgatroyd and Valentin Chmerkovskiy have yet to work on their respective dance this early in the season. (Peta has worked on the Jive with Donald Driver in Week 8, but for purposes of calculating the prediction scores I chose not to use scores from later in the season when predicting for earlier in the season)

Much like last week, half of the celebrities have danced the same dance in the same week… it will be interesting to see how the scores compare to tonight’s scores on those cases.
Read more..

October 1, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing With The Stars Season 15: Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 2

The odds makers are placing their bets again for who will win the Dancing With The Stars All Stars at Sports Bovada. As you can see, they’ve got Emmitt and Apolo neck in neck in first and second place. They’ve put Melissa and Bristol tied for last…

Emmitt Smith 3/2
Apolo Anton Ono 7/2
Gilles Marini 11/2
Helio Castroneves 11/2
Shawn Johnson 8/1
Joey Fatone 15/1
Kelly Monaco 20/1
Kirstie Alley 20/1
Sabrina Bryan 25/1
Drew Lachey 30/1
Bristol Palin 50/1
Melissa Rycroft 50/1

So, do the odds makers have it right or wrong?

In my opinion, they probably have it right on the top two currently, but, they are under estimating Shawn Johnson. She should be higher, while Helio should be lower. I also think they are totally wrong for putting Melissa Rycroft in last place. I think she should be placed in the middle somewhere. I also think Kelly is going to make a strong showing and should be placed higher. Let’s get Miss Heidi’s and Court’s thoughts and be sure to tell us what you think in the comment section too.

Heidi: Totally don’t buy Emmitt in the winning position. I don’t think he’s got that kind of juice. I still think this is going to come down to Apolo, Gilles and Shawn, with Apolo winning. That said…Gilles could find himself replaced with Emmitt if he doesn’t lighten up. While he is beautiful to look at, I’m not finding him charming or fun this season AT ALL.  And as William Levy can tell you, good looks are only good for third place in a regular season. In this one?? Maybe not so much. Lucky for him he’s likely going to get some “help” since he’s a card carrying member of the ABC family. Literally. :-)  The bottom?? I’m thinking it should be Bristol and Drew, but the reality probably IS Drew and Melissa.  If they keep doing a real bottom two, we’ll soon find out. :-)

Courtney: I’m not convinced at this point that Emmitt is gonna walk away with that trophy – and definitely not with odds that good. I don’t think one good dance in week one is indicative of much right now, considering that most of the couples did pretty well – aside from Pam, no one really did terribly this week.  I’m waiting for a dance like to jive to come along so we can really see what Emmitt’s made of – we know he’s got a great personality, now the question is: can he hang with the youngin’s? Because he is one of the older contestants this season, and like Kirstie, I think he may struggle with endurance.  Still puzzled as to why they have Helio so high.  I would put Apolo & Gilles at about even odds right now, but if Gilles’ whining about injuries, phone numbers, etc. continues, I would expect Apolo to begin to edge him out.  And really & truly, at this point I’d put Drew at the bottom – because he clearly is lacking in the votes department, and I’m not so sure that’s going to improve in the coming week.

September 28, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

ABC Releases DWTS All Stars Promotional Teaser For Results Night And More(Videos)

This is cool and Tom’s EYES are cracking me up!!

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Here are some highlights from last night as well…

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Also, if you weren’t able to catch the Dancing With The Stars After Party, you can watch it in full at the official site HERE.

September 25, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing with the Stars Season 15, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

All in all, a great start to the All Star season!! A whole bunch of fantastic dancing, with few exceptions, no doubt. And yet…we still have a couple instances of really hinky scoring and other hijinks. So, we’ll give Shawn and Kirstie extremely bad songs for foxtrots, give Gilles and other men PERFECT songs and then we’ll be extra sure and not only pimp Emmett, but overscore him as well. I love Gilles and think he was overscored relative to the other couples, but Emmett?? I smell fish. I’ll just echo Courtney and add…Gilles works for ABC, and Emmett is a football player scoring high on MONDAY Night. The female football audience?? Yeah, that’s not suspicious at all. :::rolls eyes:::

But, after all my moaning….those scores are essentially irrelevant because the exactly wrong person was the low scorer and by a significant margin. Anyway…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

As you probably deduced all on your own, Pam and Tristan are in real trouble. The judges were absolutely right when they called her out on her lack of preparation – seems clear they are paying attention to studio time this season, like they have occasionally in the past, and it’s going to be noted if you don’t do well AND you weren’t putting in the time. It’s the All Star Season. It’s to be expected.

Anyway, what does Pam have to do in order to survive to dance again? Pray. And hope that someone else (Drew? Helio?) is completely forgotten. In terms of votes she needs to do ONE of the following in order to be safe:

–          Pam has to get 7,340 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–          She needs to get 9,050 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol, OR;

–          She needs to get 12,660 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

–          She needs to get 14,470 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

–          She needs to get 16,280 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly, OR;

–          She needs to get 18,100 more votes per million votes cast than either Shawn or Apolo

I could go on but I won’t. You get the picture. The only one of these that I could see happening is Melissa or Helio…with an outside shot of Drew.  I don’t think that Pam has the juice to get past either Bristol or Kirstie….or Joey….but I’m going to say right now that Melissa and Helio could be surprises. If there is such a thing as a surprise elimination this season.

Anyway, let’s say that by some miracle (and crazy Tristan fans :-) ) Pam survives.  Kirstie is the next lowest scorer. In order to stay in the event that Pam gets past her, she would need the ONE of the following:

–          Kirstie  has to get 1,810 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol, OR;

–          She needs to get  5,430 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

–          She needs to get 7,240 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

–          She needs to get 9,050 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly

Yeah, I think she can do all that easily. I don’t think she’s in trouble. Bristol? Needs ONE of the following to happen if both Kirstie and Bristol survive:

–          Bristol needs to get  3,620 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

–          She needs to get 5,430 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

–          She needs to get 7,240 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly

This is where I’m less sure. I don’t know if Bristol has it this season like she did in her original season. These are the all stars!!

I could go on and on, but at the end of the day, I think Pam is going home.  If there’s a shock, I think it will be Melissa.   If there is a real surprise that I don’t discuss here, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. :-)

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Nightline And Good Morning America Cover The Premiere Of DWTS, Interviews And Reviews

So, last night after the Dancing With The Stars premiere, Nightline had interviews with Shawn Johnson, Gilles Marini, and Melissa Rycroft where they chatted about the competition and whether it’s harder or easier to do the show again. Gilles says it will be challenging to live up to expectations. Melissa is the most afraid of the athletes. You can watch this interview at Nightline here.

More of the cast and Tom Bergeron dish on Dancing With The Stars, what to expect, and the competition at this Nightline link too. They review the first dances as well.

Lastly, Wendy Williams gives her take on the first dances on Dancing With The Stars last at Good Morning America. Wendy says Emmitt was born to dance and he “glides”. She thinks the half points will help the contestants. Wendy is secretly rooting for Kirstie and Maks, but, she doesn’t think they will make the top five. It’s going to be a tough season and the contestants will have to bring everything. She thinks Apolo and Shawn will be in the top three. Sabrina will make the top five and, of course, Emmitt. She predicts Pamela is going home tonight because there was no chemistry with Tristan (wha?? I thought they had great chemistry. She just didn’t dance that well). Lots more at Good Morning America. So, what do you think of Wendy’s review? Did she nail it? Pretty much so, I think. I think Val and Kelly could possibly make the top three as well if they perform strong and have all the elements like they did last night. And then there is Gilles and Peta! 8O Wowza, we have ourselves a competition, don’t we?

Stay tuned for Heidi’s NUMBERS post next! ;) xx

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

PureDWTS Season 15: Media Wrap-Up After The First Dance (Videos)

Wow, what a night!! The dancing was out of this world and, to think, this is only the beginning of the season. Are you happy? Did you have a lot of “glitter” moments like I did? So, let’s get the couples reactions from On The Red Carpet with George Pennacchio….

First up, Shawn tells George she and Derek had a great start and are happy with their scores. Derek says their journey is about a lot of things, not, just dancing well. They talk of how they are both “perfectionists”. Derek says Shawn is perfect right now. So cute. Right after watching this, be sure you hop right over to Pure Derek Hough. Heidi has lots more on these two.

Tristan and Pam! Pam says she she’s got the fantasy part down and the character, she just needs to rehearse more and be consistent in dancing. They have a lot of plans if they make it. George reassures her of how much she is loved…an awww moment (I love this guy! he told her just what she needed to hear).

Kirstie and Maks! Kirstie comments on the low scores , but, says they can only go up now. She feels stronger than before. She says they need to step it up notch because everyone is amazing! Maks says they are right where he wants them to be. Maks says they are going to just have fun every week which is the most important. Kirstie explains her character which she loved playing and how the judges described it.

Val and Kelly are happy with their scores and they had so much fun. If they get voted off, Kelly would be happy since they did their best. Val talks of how he tried to turn Kelly’s fault of not dancing for so long into a charm. Kelly talks of how the cast of General Hospital is supporting her and how thankful she is.

Emmitt is excited for the moment they had last night! They are soaking the moment up. They wore green to bridge the old to the new and to set the standard last night. George says Emmitt reminded us of the joy he brings to the dance floor. So true.

Read more..

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Sabrina Bryan and Louis Van Amstel Talk With On The Red Carpet About DWTS (Rehearsal Interview)

Sabrina Bryan and Louis Van Amstel chatted about their union and their rehearsals with On The Red Carpet getting ready for Dancint With The Stars tonight, but, what’s fun is watching them dance together…

September 24, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

PureDWTS Season 15 Week 1: Blogs Before Show Time

Maks Chmerkovskiy has written his first new blog for Dancing With The Stars Season 15 at TV Guide. He says ‘tonight’s the big night’and it’s ‘going to be a big one’ as he explains how he’s dancing with Kirstie Alley again and how it’s like “building a sandcastle” with her (love that part!). Note too how he writes that his contract with Dancing With The Stars doesn’t end until 2015.

Kirstie deserves to be an All-Star. She’s fantastic in so many ways. I know she’s been saying she’s been dancing since Season 12, but she hasn’t! I’ve been calling her out on it. She definitely took to this whole dancing thing a lot more than probably most of the other celebrities have on the show. But after the show, she realized really quickly that without the element of time, this is a whole new ballgame. It’s not the same. It’s like building a sandcastle. You can have fun at your leisure. But imagine building a sandcastle with someone watching over you telling you have a minute left. It’s her and me building the sandcastle together while the show dictates the rules. It’s funny because in rehearsals, she’s been saying, “What the hell was I thinking?” And I say, “After all the pain and bruises went away and you were no longer exhausted every day, you were left with a very positive experience from the show. After that, if anyone asks you how the show was, you say, ‘It was amazing!’ So when they come to you for All-Stars, you say, ‘Of course!'” Maybe that’s why we don’t have any celebrities from the last two seasons — they haven’t gotten enough distance from the show yet. It’s still too fresh.

We’re having fun. Kirstie’s having fun, and that’s all that matters to me. How ready are we? We are as ready as we’ll be the day of the show. There’s nothing more we can do. This season is the best of the best. Last season was arguably the best level we ever had. This is going to top that. We have so many former winners, so many finalists who probably should have won. There are people who won personality and some who won on skill. I told Kirstie, “You just gotta dance.” The fact is, she can’t compete with a 20-year-old. That’s the truth. She’s 61 years old. She just has to go out there and do her thing. What makes her happy is what she will show on the dance floor. We left off on a very positive note on how far she came last time, so now how much father can she go? Right now, she’s at Week 7 or 8 from last season. I just want us to have fun and dance.

Also, Kym Johnson has a new blog up at People.com where she talks of doing tougher routines wtih Joey Fatone. She also talks of who she’s heard is good this season…

Read more..

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Pamela Anderson Talks About Tristan MacManus And DWTS On The Ellen Show, More Tidbits

It’s a Dancing With The Stars holiday and PureDWTS reader Lois puts it’s all into perspective with this fun ditty for the premiere tonight…

THE DANCING WITH THE STARS TRAIN!

All aboard! The train is leaving the station
Chug, chugging along to its final destination

The All Stars are in their Sunday finery best
Who of the thirteen will pass the final test

Along for the ride Bruno, Carrie Ann, and Len
When will they raise the paddle of the first ten

The ballroom is cheering, the train is inside
The shimmery, sparkly show opens with pride

Our eyes wide at precisely the hour of 8 o’clock
We get into the dancing mode, oh it will rock

Emmy winner Tom Bergeron says for all to hear
This is Dancing With The Stars, it is finally here

Brooke Burke takes her place with her co host
Congratulations Tom, well deserved, we boast

The All Stars ascend, to thunderous loud cheers
All thirteen trying to shake off nerves and fears

Their heels, dancing shoes, steps to the beat
Oh we are in for a dazzling, raz-ma-taz treat!

The train pulls out, in salute the whistles blow
It is Dancing With the Stars, its on with the show!

Written by Lois A Troutman, September 24, 2012
DANCING WITH THE STARS ALL STARS IS FINALLY HERE!
WITH GUSTO, WE STAND UP, WE GIVE A ROUSING CHEER!

Thanks Lois! Well said! And with that said, Dancettes, below is Pamela Anderson on The Ellen Show today prepping us even more for tonight. She says Tristan sweats in a heart shape. LOL So cute!

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Also, below is a bite from Nightline where host Tom Beregeon talks about Pamela.

“DWTS” host Tom Bergeron told “Nightline” that he recently asked the former “Baywatch” babe about her celibacy vow, which she made last month.

“I guess she thought it would give her a competitive edge,” Bergeron said. “And so I happened to see her yesterday in the hall and I mentioned to her that I had been asked about her vow of celibacy and over her shoulder, with her back to me, she went, ‘I’m already off the wagon.’”

A few weeks before the “Dancing with the Stars: All-Stars” premiere, which airs tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, the 45-year-old Anderson told People magazine that she had “sworn off men until November,” when the competition ends.

Anderson was eliminated from “Dancing with the Stars,” Season 10, in May 2010 and returns tonight for the show’s 15th season, alongside Olympic gymnast Shawn Johnson, Bristol Palin and Emmitt Smith, among others.

“We’ve got everybody on the show who’s been here before, many of whom have won it before, I’m really excited about it,” Bergeron said. “I do think that each of them knows that this particular Mirror Ball trophy, however kitschy it might be, there’s a certain status among fans of the show for coming into a season of all stars and walking away with that one.”

NOTE: Tune into “Nightline” tonight at 11:35 p.m. ET as ABC’s David Wright sits down with Tom Bergeron and members of the cast to talk about the show behind the scenes. HERE is a preview you don’t want to miss.

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Season Premiere (Week 1) Predictions!

UPDATE: So I updated the table to include the Actual Scores from Monday’s Premiere of Season 15… Interesting things happening here. The main thing though is that these predicted scores never take into account any kind of under or over scoring in any capacity… so really just take them with a grain of salt. :)

A quick glance between the below table and my elimination predictions… I am looking at Pamela Anderson to have the dubious honor of being the first to go this season. With either Melissa or Kirstie as possibilities.

Many thanks to Heidi for finding out who is dancing what for the season premiere.

Let’s look at the below table before I start explaining what I did differently this time around:

 
RANKING
PREDICTION
ORIGINAL SCORES
ACTUAL SCORES
COUPLE DANCE
AGE
JOB
PRO
RANK
SCORE
WEEK
DANCE
AVE
RANK
SCORE
Emmitt / Cheryl Cha-Cha
12
10
4
11
19
24
24
1
24.5
Gilles / Peta Foxtrot
6
5
8
7
20
24
29
26.5
2
24
Sabrina / Louis Cha-Cha
4
2
11
4
20
26
26
3
22.5
Shawn / Derek Foxtrot
2
1
 
2
23
23
27
25
4
22
Apolo / Karina Cha-Cha
9
6
10
9
20
21
21
4
22
Helio / Chelsie Foxtrot
6
8
3
6
20
22
22
6
21.5
Drew / Anna Foxtrot
6
 
6
8
20
24
26
25
6
21.5
Kelly / Val Cha-Cha
9
11
 
13
18
10
25
17.5
6
21.5
Melissa / Tony Foxtrot
2
7
5
3
21
23
27
25
9
21
Joey / Kym Cha-Cha
9
3
9
5
20
24
24
10
20.5
Bristol / Mark Cha-Cha
4
12
2
10
19
18
18
11
19.5
Kirstie / Maksim Foxtrot
1
4
1
1
23
23
23
23
12
19
Pamela / Tristan Cha-Cha
12
9
7
12
19
21
21
13
17

When I started running the numbers for the season premiere of Dancing with the Stars… and predicting the scores I came across a few anomalies that I thought would amuse you guys:
– No Band Member has ever done the Foxtrot in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season
– Derek Hough has never done the Foxtrot before in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season

Interesting conundrum… no?
Read more..

I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)