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Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 10 Predictions

So this is the last weekly score predictions of the season that you guys are going to get from me. Why did I wait for the instant dance to post up predictions? Simply because those are the most worthwhile to use data for.

Freestyles are near impossible to predict for because of the sheer number of perfect scores or near perfect scores, it simply just isn’t worth it.

The dance repeat is also a crapshoot because we have already seen the dance and the judges will either do what TPTB are whispering in their ears or they will go off script and be even stranger… who knows.

What I did notice though is that the scores of contestants in the finals tend to give the viewer an idea of how TPTB are trying to even the playing field. By giving Shawn / Derek a far lower score than the other two it is as if they are compensating from the sheer volume of votes they are getting in comparison to Melissa / Tony or Kelly / Val.

But this is speculation and I don’t have the date to prove or disprove anything… yet.

So that leaves the instant dances. Granted they will not be exact and I really wouldn’t be surprised if let’s say Shawn / Derek and Melissa / Tony would get close to perfect scores with Kelly / Val bringing up the rear so that the winner will be just down to popular vote.

But enough speculation, below is the table breakdown of the final three and how their scores appear to pan out for the three possible dances (Samba, Cha-Cha, and Jive).

Enjoy!

November 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 9 Predictions

Oh Em Gee… Week Nine? The Semi-Finals and we have five couples left in the competition? It is interesting to know that in a week it is the finals and then we have to wait til March for the new season of Dancing with the Stars. Not a bad thing mind you but… anyway.

Since I am at a time crunch I am going to just provide the data, some tidbits that I know and let you guys draw your own conclusions:

Below is the table of the predicted scores. As to be expected we don’t really have all that information for the “chosen” dances but for my sanity let’s just focus on the dances that we do know of…


If the predictions are to be believed (and the score from approximately the same time frame in the original seasons) then the top three couples would include Shawn/Derek, Apolo/Karina and Melissa/Tony which would be just fine by me (and probably most other people).

So let’s look at how the scores worked out last week:
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November 19, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 8 Predictions

Yay the Trio Challenge **rolls eyes**. ANYWAY As always take the below table with a grain of salt:


Now for the eighth week of competition in Season 8: Melissa originally received a 21 because she was injured that week and as thus her score was based off of the dance rehearsal footage taken earlier that day (or weekend).

I find it rather interesting that Emmitt is the only one that has not done either one of the dances that he is assigned this week in his original season.

Kelly Monaco did the Viennese Waltz as a group dance in her season but it was not scored.

Now… throughout the week last week people were asking what the cumulative scores were up to that point… so I decided to provide the following table for your information only:
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November 12, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Pro Sonny Fredie Pedersen Nominated For Three Gaffa Awards For His Music

A huge huge Congratulations are in order for Dancing With The Stars troupe member and Danish recording artist Sonny Fredie Pederson!!! He’s been nominated for THREE Gaffa Awards for Best Male Artist Of The Year, Best Pop Album Of The Year, and Best New Artist Of The Year for his music. Listen below as he tells you about it and his big year. There are some bloopers at the end too! Hilarious!

Please support Sonny and vote for him in the Gaffa Awards here. You can read more about Sonny in this previous posting. You can buy his new album “International” at this iTunes link International - Sonny Here is his “Bad Girl” Bad Girl - International video again too.

No wonder he’s been nominated, hmm? CONGRATULATIONS Sonny!!

November 10, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 7 Predictions

GAH! I am so confused with this season… >.<

So a few words of warning... since I am using scores from the season prior to that of Season 15, those fusion dances that include the tango (Melissa/Tony and Shawn/Derek or Mark) where the celebrity did not dance the tango in their original season I substitute for the Argentine Tango... just so I don't have a lot of blank scores all over the place.

Since at last rumor in accordance to Heidi’s Who is Dancing What When… Mark appears to be dancing with Shawn Johnson I created the following table to reflect that:

But let’s compare that table to the rare possibility that Derek would be able to dance with Shawn this week:

Anyone noticed that? I think it is pretty clear that with Derek, Shawn would have a slightly higher chance of being towards the top of the leaderboard than with Mark (provided that no storyboarding is going on). Then again…

Yes I know that Kirstie has done the quickstep below… however aside from Season 15, has anyone in their 60s completed the quickstep in the latter part of the season? From what I have been able to see I do not believe so… but I am only human.

And of course since this is the first time that Valentin Chmerkovskiy has made it past Week Four so any pro data is out the window for him. **Sighs** Season 15 the bombs to my spreadsheets… :)

November 5, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 6 Predictions

Week 5 no eliminations… while as with Week 6 we were suppose to have a double elimination but it would appear that TPTB have scraped that idea and we will see a single elimination this week.

That being said… thanks to Heidi for posting up the “Who is Dancing What” post for the week… what does the data say about how the couples will be scored this week? Better yet, will there be any change / shake up in the standings from last week to this week?

Before going on let’s look at how the scores could stack up if Week 6 did NOT have Week 5 added on to it.

A few things to note:
– Since we are in Week 6, the calculations above is strictly based off of scores from Weeks 4 through 7 in a traditional 10-week season. Just to keep the scoring semi-reasonable.
– Although Apolo Anton Ohno has a score from his original season for the Viennese Waltz… in actuality he has done the Waltz in his season and did not dance to the Viennese Waltz.
– Does anyone else find it odd that Derek – until this season – has never done a Cha-Cha between Weeks 4 through 7?

Now let’s look at how the scoring went down in Week 5 (including the Team Dances).
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October 29, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 5 Predictions

After taking a week off (I actually flew out to New York two weekends ago) and as thus wasn’t able to rework my spreadsheet in time for the predictions of Week 4. But I am back and raring to go with Week 5 predictions.

So without further ado… here are the predictions that you were missing last week (with thanks from Heidi for putting together who is dancing what):

Since we are heading towards what I call the “middle third” of the season the only scores from the previous seasons that I will be focusing on will be those from Weeks 4 thru 7. Because of this breakdown… in the case of Peta she has done a Rumba before but in the first few weeks of Season 13 with Donald.

Consequently those celebrities in their 60s have done a Quickstep but again only in the first two weeks of their season… so to stick with some sort of accuracy I chose not to include those scores.

However, with those missing scores it seems rather odd for Kirstie to be placed so high (though it could be possible) while Melissa is placed so low… Again as proven in past prediction posts… they tend to be a crap shoot… so take the above with a grain of salt.

In the meantime let’s look at how the scores went at the end of the day for Week 3 and (from what is available in Week 4).
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October 22, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 4 Pre-Predictions

Ok… just to get this out of the way… predictions are shot for Week 4. Since there are only four dances that have been on the show before (Charleston, Mambo, Jitterbug and Bolero) while the rest have either been a group dance (Rock N Roll, Disco) or were featured in the Results show by other dance groups (Bollywood, Contemporary, Hip Hop, Broadway)… there is no way I can truly predict scores… but I sure as hell will try. :) Who could have predicted what the dance pool was going to include? I thought it would re-introduce dances that just didn’t have some exposure on the show as I posted last week.

So how will the scores stack up with the data that I have available?

See what I mean by this week’s predictions being a crap shoot? I mean seriously! The only dances that have any scores that I could work off of are highlighted in yellow and are the closest to “traditional” ballroom dances. While the ones in orange are the dances that are absolutely not your traditional ballroom dances. Those that are left have actually been featured on the show in group routines for the season cast.

What I did find to be interesting is that for those that were given the traditional dances that overlapped with my dance pool… I had actually suggested them to have:
Emmitt Smith: suggested either Bolero, West Coast Swing or Two Step
Shawn Johnson: suggested either the Mambo or Two Step

Before I move on… Warning: extra long, YouTube video link heavy post to follow. Also Lori added additional commentary wherever she is able in regards to Week 4’s dances / couples. Also there is a little bit of a conversation going on in the comments in the DWTS Season 15 Stats Class Week 4’s Challenge. Read more..

October 11, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class – Week 4’s Challenge

Since this post would be moot point come the Results show tonight I figured I would help give an idea of various dances and what not that are available from throughout the seasons:

Looking at the above breakdown there are eight dances that had minimal exposure throughout the series, but do I define “seldom used dances”? Well they are those dances that we have only seen once in a small handful of seasons. When looking at the number counts there are eight dances that were danced less than 25 times… actually the most from this group would be 11. Here are those dances and when they were featured:
Season 7 Week 5
Hustle, Jitterbug and West Coast Swing

Season 8 Week 4
Lindy Hop

Season 9 Week 4
Bolero, Charleston, Lambada and Two-Step

So now let’s look at how the dances scores were averaged and compared to one another:

Let us also look at the dances that are not in the Top Ten highest scoring dances and see where all the other dances lie:


Those dances highlighted in “yellow” are those that not only have had minimal exposure on the show, but also scored rather low in the grand scheme of things. Those dances that are highlighted in “pink” are those that have had some exposure on the show but still scored low. If anything… if I was helping produce the show I would probably use the above dances (and maybe include other dances that have had minimal exposure on the show like the Charleston, Jitterbug, Lambada, and Hustle) as the pool of dances to be used for the upcoming week.

Looking through all the dances that have been featured on the show and have had some exposure I realized some interesting things. There were several dances that were introduced into the show in the midway point of the series and have been staples ever since (Argentine Tango, Viennese Waltz), while there were other dances that were “taking a break” as it were but then have been staples since them (Salsa, Tango, Waltz).

The Mambo was only featured for a handful of seasons in the middle of the series: Seasons 3 thru 7.

So knowing all this… which dances did I pull the below preferences from? Well the easiest would be the following: Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step and West Coast Swing. These four dances not only got the least amount of exposure on the show but also had average low scores during their short run on the series.

The Mambo has been on the show for only five seasons and was scored low frequently so I would toss that dance into the mix.

Finally what about the other four? Aka the Charleston, Hustle, Jitterbug, and Lambada? It is hard to say since they ranked high on the scoring table. I tended to shy away from these dances in my quick analysis below, but feel free to include these in your comments if you feel inclined that you’d like to see a particular celebrity dance these dances.

So my final pool would be from Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step, West Coast Swing and Mambo.

But before we start figuring out what dances would provide a challenge to each of the dancers… let’s look at who has already attempted any of the above dances?

So in regards to dances: Shawn, Melissa and Gilles all have a little bit of an edge by having done the Lindy Hop in their original season, but the Lindy Hop had an average score that is in the higher half. Personally, if I were to choose dances that I would like to see next week they would include the Bolero, West Coast Swing and Lindy Hop.

So knowing the above… what dances could possibly challenge the individual dancers? (Warning very long post to follow)
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October 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Week 3 Predictions

This is going to be an off week on so many levels… I can just sense it. So I am going to apologize for the tardiness of last week and this week’s votes… Looking at the calculations and predictions this week (as always many thanks to Heidi for finding out Who is Dancing What:

I am actually surprised that Tony Dovolani has not done a Samba this early in the competition. That can’t be right. Well I looked at the past seasons and the earliest that Tony has done a Samba was in Week 5… which for the purposes of the predicted calculations would not be used as Week 5 is considered to be the middle of the seasons and not early.

To be honest I am surprised that Drew Lachey is ranked so low while Bristol Palin *shudders* is placed high. I guess we are going to have to see.

Taking a look at last week’s scores and comparing them with the original predictions:

As you can see the numbers when you compare the predictions to the actual are all over the place. Thus another reason why one cannot use past data for such a subjective sport. However, when one would look at the original scores (when averaged up) what I found to be interesting is that for the most part the rankings of the original scores were similar to the overall rankings of the actual scores. Sure there were a few anomalies here and there (Drew Lachey being the major one), but at least there is some consistency going on.

Like I said before, I apologize for the delay in the posts from last week and this week… and I hope to be more up to date after this week… so bare with me in the meantime.

If I were going to guess at who would most likely be going home based on what I know thus far… with Helio and Drew having already been at the Bottom Two, and this week being a double elimination… It is hard to say. However considering that both Drew and Helio are predicted to be the in the bottom three lowest scoring couples (with Kirstie) my best bet would be on one of them. Helio is most likely to go due to his predicted early eliminiation. Kirstie and Drew are also possibilities at this point based entirely on predictions, even though I would honestly love to see Bristol go too.

So I would bet on Helio going with a toss up between Drew and Kirstie… and Bristol as a wish list elimination.

October 8, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)