Look out, Tom, she’s comin’ for YOU!! John sent me this before Tom tweeted it…but I think it’s funny anyway.
And of course the week Vogue is out of town, we have actually have the biggest odds shakeup so far this season According to Bovada, Emmitt has finally been bumped out of the top spot by Shawn, with Apolo still holding down the #2 slot. Emmitt falls to 3rd, while at the bottom of the board, Sabrina falls hard, while Bristol makes a 3-fold jump. Crazy shuffling odds, Batman!!!
Odds going into Week 4:
Shawn Johnson – 7/4
Apolo Anton Ohno – 9/4
Emmitt Smith – 7/2
Gilles Marini – 13/2
Kelly Monaco – 12/1
Melissa Rycroft – 15/1
Bristol Palin – 25/1
Sabrina Bryan – 33/1
Kirstie Alley – 50/1
Last week’s odds going into week 3, to compare:
Emmitt Smith - 2/1
Apolo Anton Ohno - 3/1
Gilles Marini – 5/1
Shawn Johnson – 5/1
Helio Castroneves – 9/1
Sabrina Bryan - 10/1
Kelly Monaco – 22/1
Kirstie Alley – 22/1
Melissa Rycroft – 25/1
Drew Lachey – 30/1
Bristol Palin – 75/1
For the first time this season, I think they’ve actually got it JUST about right – I do think Shawn & Apolo are finale material, while the 3rd spot has become a bit of a wild card for me. I could see Gilles, Melissa, or even Kelly swooping in to challenge the two Olympians in the finale, at this point. I’m not so sold on Sabrina anymore, as she quite obviously wasn’t getting the votes and seems to be getting hindered by Louis’ choreography; and I am beginning to think Emmitt isn’t really in it to win it…maybe it was the donkey that made me question if he was champion material. As for Kirstie & Bristol – who the hell knows. I’m inclined to think Kirstie is annihilating Bristol when it comes to votes, but stranger things have happened. Heidi, care to weigh in?
Heidi: Are we using the same odds makers every week? Or do they all come up with the same odds every week?? I just ask, because that seems like it could account for minor differences in the odds from week to week. Either way, I have to agree with Courtney in that they have it just about right this time. I think odds are favorable that Apolo and Shawn are there at the finale. The third spot, however…I DON’T think it’s going to be either Bristol or Kirstie. Believe it or not, I still have a bit of faith that if both are still there in 3 weeks the judges will put the hammer down. I just can’t believe they would seriously want the two of them to make a mockery of an “All Star” season, Bristol in particular. I know that ratings rule…but I honestly believe that even including Bristol in an all star cast was a mistake that may come back to haunt them. It’s just not credible. So, at what point does the credibility/integrity (if it ever existed) of the show out weigh the obsessive desire for ratings? I’m hoping week 6 or 7. The quest for controversy driven ratings is a double edged sword – at some point you make a mockery.
Heidi Still: Now that I’ve mentioned that word that’s been driving me crazy in the comments lately, DO NOT start talking about how the ratings are down because of Bristol and how adversely DWTS is being impacted. That’s no more true than the ratings going UP due to her in her original season. ALL OF TELEVISION is down. All of it. When you hear about DWTS taking a 20% dip in the ratings, it’s not catastrophic – all shows have dipped by 20 to 30% from last season except for (apparently) the Voice and football, both of which are holding steady. DWTS is still beating the Voice in total viewers and The Voice is still beating DWTS in the key demo. Nothing has changed there. What you hear on entertainment news shows is talking heads who aren’t smart enough to make distinctions.
Court: WORD. :-D “The ratings are sooooo low!!!” is a DWTS urban legend that I’m growing very tired of debunking, along with the myth of VFTW being solely responsible for Bristol sticking around (they wish), and whether “in jeopardy” and “in the bottom 2″ mean the same thing (NO). But anyway…here’s a screen cap to cleanse your palate. Happy Thursday, fwiends
“Damn right I brought a donkey for my paso doble! His name is JaGilles…after my two favorite jackasses to ever do DWTS.”
I always find these interesting, although I rarely comment on them. This week I clicked the link to their facebook and saw an interesting series of pictures. I will narrate for you…
“Someone’s missing…Hey, Derek, get your little butt over into this picture!!” Derek: “I’m busy man, leave me alone.”
Gilles: “Come sit by me, Derek”
After having avoided the Make Up Teams camera for 2.5 weeks, Derek is finally captured on film. And he ain’t happy about it.
If you want to see all of the week three pictures, hit up DWTS Make Up Teams Facebook Page.
Heh. You guys are used to getting all the media from nice, sweet, kind Vogue. Now you’re stuck with ME. And Courtney. I saw Courtney being all nice in her Voguecation post. Don’t expect the same from me. :::evil grin:::
Of course, you know when I go to OTRC, I’m going to watch Gilles and Louis to see how big an idiot they’re acting. But when I started watching Gilles, I got distracted by what Derek is doing to Anna in the background. And she’s like…petting him or something. Dancers. Very touchy feely. Click the link to watch all of the couples.
Does Louis know at this point that he and Sabrina were bottom three? Remember, the ballroom is VERY loud so they can’t hear all that well. Louis makes it quite clear he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He’s assuming Kirsti was a bottom two when she wasn’t. Sorry Louis, you were third from the bottom. Anyway, again with the “redemption” arch and how Helio was the champion Sabrina’s season. Give it a rest already. Sabrina and Helio were TIED – which means Sabrina only needed ONE vote to beat him. Not thousands….ONE.
Entertainment Tonight with Maks, Kirstie and Paula – Kirstie and Paula get after Maks a bit. Then it’s Maks/Kirstie…and well, I couldn’t watch it all. I don’t have that kind of time.
Big night tonight….lots of stuff happened. Dances revealed for next week, and two people went home. Who was it??
First, Drew Lachey went home…the Helio went home. And guess who was in the bottom three with them! Sabrina and Louis. Calm that ego down, kids.
How did the Pure Crew do??
Heidi: Picked Drew and Helio for elimination.
Courtney: Drew and Helio
Vogue: Bristol and Drew.
Vogue? What’s going on, girl – your track record was stellar last season??
Sherri Shepherd reviewed the dances on Good Morning America today!! Kelly and Val “wowed” her the most….not just because Val was her partner last season, but, for how good they were. Melissa and Tony impressed her too. She takes Bristol’s side in the fight with she and Mark. Sherri also doesn’t think Mark and Bristol are going home tonight. You can watch Sherri’s interview and review on the night in more detail at Good Morning America here.
Also, Henry of PopTVDotCom has some fun coverage of the cast going to an After party at Mixology. Several of them comment on how nervous they are for tonight’s double elimination. They all look stylish as ever.
Stay tuned. Heidi’s Numbers post is next and who she thinks will be eliminated!! I think Marianya might have some goodies for you too coming up.
Anyone else find it somewhat (ok, not at all) coincidental that the two women likely in the most trouble with voters were also at the top of the leaderboard, yet had dances that were not even close to tied for the best of the night?? Don’t get me wrong, I like both Melissa and Kelly very much, but even with docked points for breaking the rules, Shawn and Apolo belong at the top of the leaderboard. The only thing that comes to my mind is that they are doing fine in votes, and Melissa and Kelly both need protection from Kirstie and Bristol. Why do they warrant protection and Drew and Helio don’t?? Well…Drew and Helio don’t work for ABC. Melissa and Kelly (and Gilles) both do work for ABC. There are no coincidences. Sure, Apolo and Shawn are likely fine – but it chaps my ass that for two weeks in a row Apolo has gotten screwed and this week Shawn joins him. There is no way – no way – that either Melissa or Kelly deserve to be a full point and a half ahead of Apolo. I say, give them each a 25.5 or 26, Apolo a 27 or 28 and Shawn a 27 (only because she broke the rules).
Note to Mark, Louis and Maks – Derek is the example that you all should look to when being chastised for breaking the rules. All Derek and Shawn wanted from Len was the admission that he liked the dance very much. That is telling. They both knew full well they were going to be docked – the only question was by how much. I’m still in awe of how much air Derek got when doing the jump split or whatever it’s called. He got higher than Shawn did! As for Apolo – honey, sexy ain’t work for you, you is HOT. Ten times hotter than Gilles. Not like that is a stretch this season.
ANYway, let’s analyze who has the best shot of sticking around and who…doesn’t.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Well, I hate to say it, but barring a miracle, I think Drew might be toast. That makes me sad, because I like Drew, and Bristol? Not so much. Kirstie only needs one more vote than him and Bristol needs a number that she easily got over him once before. I have a hard time imagining a scenario where she doesn’t do it again, especially since I think most viewers are going to view her with sympathy, thanks to how the show aired the footage last night. Anyway, let’s look at what Bristol has to do to stick around. She needs TWO of the following:
- Bristol needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie or Drew, OR;
- Bristol needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
- Bristol needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Sabrina, Helio or Apolo, OR;
- Bristol needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
- Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.
Hmmm….looking at it like that, I’m not entirely sure that Kelly or Melissa are safe. But they probably are – I think Drew is toast in this scenario. The question is – who else is toast?? Bristol, as the low scorer, needs to jump over TWO people in order to stay, not just one. Boy oh boy – tonight could be interesting. My gut tells me that since Helio already made a trip to the bottom two, that he’s the likely second eliminee (sorry Brooke). Emmitt might be over rated with the audience, or one of the top three could be in trouble simply out of fans certainty that they are safe. Or it could be someone else in the middle of the pack. Anyway… Read more..
It’s media time after the dance on Dancing With The Stars! What a night!! I’m still so blown away by Derek & Shawn’s performance…and what about Kelly & Val (the dark horse!! Or is the dark horse Melissa and Tony?) and Apolo & Karina? I could go on and on. Ok, let’s get some reactions from the couples with George Pennacchio of On The Red Carpet and more….
First up, Kirstie and Maks. They talk of embracing their characters last night. Is Maks wearing a mouth piece? LOL to having a new respect for women because his make-up hurts everywhere. So funny.
Emmitt hopes the fans are voting. He and Cheryl don’t like being towards the bottom, but, they hope to just keep focusing on the dance. What’s important is that the fans are happy. They loved the audience reaction at the end of their dance. They can’t wait to have Paula Abdul as a judge next week.
Melissa doesn’t mind being compared to a Cola by Len. She’ll take any kind of compliment. Tony couldn’t be more proud of a partner as he is in Melissa. Practice was tough all week, but, it was worth it last night when the dance came together.
George highlights Bristol’s strength and ability to tell it like it is. She’s glad the rough week is over. They are still at the bottom and hope their fans will vote and keep them in. If they survive, Bristol is excited to see what dance the couples pick for them. George tries to get more from her, but, she won’t give it. She wants to keep things in perspective (I never know what she means when she says that?).
Sarahnet Radio has interviewed Bristol Palin again. They review last week’s dance and how happy Bristol is to be dancing again on Dancing With The Stars. She says the “crap” people give her for making it just motivate her that much more. Then they talk of the double elimination this week and Bristol and Mark’s Paso Doble. Bristol says the double elimination is “intimidating”, but, she’s staying “focused” on the dance. The competition with the cast has risen to another level and she’s been working even harder. So much so, she comments her and Mark are like an “old married couple” and they went at it this week in rehearsals which we’ll probably see in their package tonight.
Hmmm…not sure I am ready for tonight or not? LOL
ADDING: People.com has posted a rehearsal video with Mark and Bristol. You can watch it HERE. As you will soon see, it hasn’t been a smooth ride this week for them. Be sure to let us know what you think in the comments and if and how it will effect voting tonight?
Heidi: I’m on a roll…or a tear, depending on your POV, this week. I’m feeling mean. You’ve been warned. Don’t come crying to me later for my sense of humor having a mean streak this week.
Courtney: But everyone out to be thankful that Heidi’s on a streak, because I myself am feeling a bit…sedate. Apparently I am allergic to either Cajun seasoning or lump crabmeat, as I broke out into hives about 15 minutes after sampling a hot seafood dip Mama Spence made for the Colts game. A few hours, a trip to the urgent care, and a shot of dexamethasone later, I’m feeling less itchy…but a little blaaaahhhh. But hey, at least the Colts beat the Packers!
The C U Next Tuesday Award, Redux: Carrie Ann Inaba, for rather heavy-handedly chastising Bristol Palin for breaking hold in her quickstep
Courtney: Let’s get one thing straight: I fully acknowledge that Bristol & Mark broke hold in their dance (if you haven’t yet, see my post about it) and I agree that the judges were right in pointing it out. HOWEVER – I don’t endorse CAI for going all Regina George on Bristol for it, claiming she was going to “slam back” because Bristol “slammed them in the face” by breaking the staying in hold rule. First of all, I have to laugh at how egocentric CA must be to think that all the couples break rules with the intention of somehow dissing the judges – I’ve heard her make the same ridiculous assumption about couples doing lifts, as if every single choreographic decision the couples make that doesn’t fit into her her specific (and ever-changing) rule book is a personal insult to her. My god, woman, IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT YOU!!! Second of all, at least direct your unwarranted indignance at the real guilty party – Mark. Have you somehow forgotten that the pros ultimately make the choreographic decisions??? I don’t care how much influence you may think a celeb has over their pro partner - the pro gets the final say in the choreography, and if it really was Bristol insisting they break hold (and I’m not sure it was), then Mark should have had the cojones to put his foot down and tell her no. But that’s neither here nor there – CA is a grown woman, not a teenage girl slamming another girl against a locker for stealing her boyfriend/copying her outfit/whatever. Grow up, ya diva…before they have to pull an extra chair up to the judges’ table for your ever-growing ego.
Heidi: She’s just a nutbar. As you said she’s done this before – taken it as a personal insult to her that someone broke the rules. Like Derek or Mark or Maks sit in a room with their partner saying, “What can we do to REALLY get CAI’s goat and piss her off?” But see, that’s the difference between CAI and the pros on this show. The pros are actual choreographers…it’s an art form, and sometimes they make creative decisions to put together the most exciting, memorable dance and that means a rule gets broken. I doubt CAI was considered until they looked at the final routine and figured that they better warn their partner they might get in trouble because CAI is a self centered biotch who thinks it’s all about HER.
The “Making out is the new black!” Award: Helio & Chelsie and Apolo & Karina, for finding ways to smooch in their routine; honorable mention – Val Chmerkovskiy, for finding any excuse he could to kiss Kelly on the head/hand/arm/etc.
Courtney: This seemed to be one week where the makeup department was discouraged from using the long-wearing lipsticks that we’re used to seeing – as both Helio & Apolo proudly sported lipstick kisses on their faces from their female partners. Love certainly seemed to be in the air this week…maybe they were inspired by Kirstie’s enthusiastic congratulatory smooch to Tom last week?
Heidi: Well, I think Val and Karina have crushes. Don’t know what the hell the deal is with Chelsie.
The “STFU Already” Award for Beating of a Dead Horse…AGAIN: Len Goodman for YET AGAIN reminding us of how shocking Sabrina’s elimination was in Season 6
Heidi: OMFG…how many times do we have to hear about this!!! Are they going to give her top of the leaderboard every week just to get the story they want at the end of the season?? “The most shocking elimination EVER finally wins!!! All is right with the fucking world.” :::rolls eyes::: I think I actually freaking screamed when he said it yet again.
Courtney: Wait…Sabrina’s elimination was shocking? Hold the phone. MIND…BLOWN. Read more..