DWTS Season 10, Week 4 – Who’s Dancing What?

Note to self – check last weeks dances….

Oy veh. The Rumba and the Tango. I have a feeling I might need eyeball bleach for Kate’s dance, regardless. Here’s what I think each couple is dancing:

Jake and Chelsie – Tango: Hmmm…Jake has surprised me thus far, but a Tango?? He might be a clomper.

Nicole and Derek – Rumba: Hee. I think the rumba is what happens on DWTS when you insist to everyone who will listen that you are not hooking up with your partner and that you love your boyfriend. 🙂 Girl, I believe you (until you say it another 10 times or so, anyway). But I am concerned that you might try to throw cold water on a Derek Hough rumba – and that would be a damn shame.

Evan and Anna – Tango: Of course he will be fabulous and will probably get his first ten of the season. Perfection is boring. Fight with Anna or something, wouldja?

Chad and Cheryl – Rumba: I’ve given up on Chad, actually. I had such high hopes for him and, while he improved last week, he’s still way more Maurice Greene than he is Emmett Smith. Maybe he will be the surprise of the week? Can he dance the dance as well as he talks the talk?

Niecy and Louie – Rumba: Niecy was disappointed she got another slow dance and I agree with her. I didn’t like it when they gave Joanna four latin dances in a row and I don’t like how Niecy’s getting all the slower dances in a row. But she’ll do well with the Rumba, regardless.

Aiden and Edyta – Rumba: Sabotaging him again, do you all think? The man likely doesn’t have hips, so they give him the rumba instead of a Tango where he might have a chance??

Erin and Maks – Tango: Surprise!! I thought for sure they’d give her and Maks a Rumba to try to take advantage of their non-mance. But maybe that’s what Erin and Maks wanted, so they gave it to Nicole, who likely didn’t. 🙂 I feel very “conspiracy theorist” today…

Pamela and Damian – Rumba: Get yer fire extinguishers ready folks.  Although I expect this to be smokin’ hot, I wonder if this won’t work against her? People may eventually get tired of the sexpot routine.

Kate and Tony – Tango: I’m not sure about Kate and Tony, but I’m thinking it has to be a tango, and from some rehearsal footage it looks like a Tango.  Doesn’t matter. Sure to be a disaster either way and Kate will stay another week.

So, what will affect some of the couples more strongly than others? Why the two sets of scores, of course. Are they desperate to get rid of Kate and save someone who might be in jeopardy? Someone we don’t actually KNOW is in jeopardy? Like…Nicole or Evan?? Nah, I still think Evan is going to win. Maybe they just want to get rid of Kate, and having a double low score (performance AND technique) might just be the way to go about it. Nicole, Evan, Erin all get double high scores, Pam, Niecy, Chad and Jake get a split – maybe Aiden too – and Kate gets a double low score. Hmmm…I may have to see if I can guess at the judges scoring too and see just how many votes Kate would have to get to stick around. If this is their plan and Kate still stays? We’re all screwed. 🙂

DWTS Season 10 Week 3 – The Score Card

Spoilers!!!!! Buzz Aldrin, the old sweetheart, leaves the competition.

Well, mea culpa on several fronts. Clearly Courtney and I are severely underestimating Aiden’s appeal. Well, I should say, I understand TOTALLY his appeal – he’s gorgeous and he has a hot accent. But I just think he’s getting lost in a bunch of characters. Apparently not that lost just yet. Which I’m actually happy about because he’s better than Buzz and Kate, for sure. He might even be better than Chad!!

My other mea culpa was for bitching about Derek not having the chance to showcase the fact that he plays at least three instruments very, very well. Yay. He played guitar and danced with Chelsie in what will likely be, for me, the highlight pro dance of the season. Fantastic.

Another – I missed Lacey and didn’t realize until I saw her dance again. Sorry Lacey. Dmitry – still does nothing for me. Sorry Dmitry. If I’m going to go big and dark and brooding, I’m going Maks. 😉

Len, seriously? You would have scored Erin and Maks *lower*? Are you on crack?? Well, at least he’s being a jerk to most everyone.

Anyway, I think I called it half right, and Courtney got her bottom person correct. I said either Aiden or Buzz. That said, we were both hoping and privately saying Kate should/would go. We are now drinking. Heavily. WTF??? Who is voting for this woman – or as I told Courtney, why are the haters not voting for other people??!! Geez. 10.5 million people watched Jon and Kate Plus 8 at it’s heyday – if you haters want her gone, ya best start voting for Jake, Pam or Aiden. Otherwise, we all have to quit complaining. Or you all do – I vote like crazy. 🙂 But as Courtney said, crazy Americans eliminated a true American hero in favor of a talentless woman with no REAL claim to fame. Why am I not surprised??

ANOTHER surprise – Jake in the bottom two. Jake, I’m not a huge fan but I do like you and think you have potential. It sucks. But rest assured your fans will kick butt and take names next week and Pam will fall to the bottom two again.

Courtney’s Power Ranking and my guesses by the numbers – click the links. In summary:

Heidi: Guessed either Aiden or Buzz. Was actually hoping for Kate, and very sad to see Buzz go. Was a tad surprised by Jake. Question: am I overestimating The Bachelor’s (or Jake’s) appeal? Or did his fans get cocky and think he is the second coming of Melissa Rycroft?

Courtney: Had Buzz as the bottom, but was hoping for Kate.

Heidi says: Jake is safe next week but may trade off with Pam, as viewers continue to save the lesser dancers.

Courtney? What say you?

Courtney says: Awwww Heidi, you flatter me – but I was actually 0 for 2 this week. I had Kate & Aiden as the bottom 2, with Buzz narrowly escaping the red zone. And I am LIVID that Kate lives to dance another week! Indeed, I find it a crying shame that America eliminated a prominent figure in from our country’s history in favor of a woman who has been accused of being an “absentee mother” (anyone else catch The Insider tonight?) to her 8 children and an overall fame-hungry, bitter divorcee? I honestly thought Buzz’s charm would carry him through at least one more week. And I’m clearly underestimating Aiden (After seeing Cameron Mathison there supporting him, I wonder if those same people that rallied around Cam are now also tuning in for Aiden – those two seem to have a bromance) and overestimating Jake’s appeal (perhaps the rest of the country is beginning to think he’s whiney just like I do!). Not that I’m complaining – I think Aiden is a doll up to Jake, and I’m just relieved that Pam managed to avoid the red zone this week (she’s definitely in the top half of the pack for me). Grrrr…now I’m seriously beginning to doubt myself. Gonna go stick some more pins in my Kate voodoo doll, and go construct a generic one for all of the dingbats that are voting for her!

Dancing with the Stars Season 10, Week 3 – By the Numbers

Well, Courtney got a few things off her chest, now it’s MY turn. 🙂

First, let me say that I really like ALL of the couples, even Kate to a certain extent. Several of the couples I even LOVE – best season so far. So, I say the following with love, not hate.

Would you all shut the hell up? Please? And I mean in the media and on twitter – maybe I get too much of both, but still. You guys are making my job here annoying, unnecessarily. You’re all good people (again, possibly except Kate) – there is no need for storyboarding, creating drama, or flapping your yaps at every single thing. Maybe I’m cynical, but it all strikes me as vote grabbing. And I’m talking about ALL of you – every last one. Some examples…

Kate? We KNOW you have 8 children. How can we not know that? It’s the only reason you’re famous – and if you REALLY didn’t like the paparazzi perhaps you should have stayed home in PA. Evan? Dude, you are getting the lion share of votes already, do you need to comment over and over about your poor, broken toes AND spam for votes (although there was marked improvement last night)? Seriously? You had a couple in the media calling you heroic. Please. Ballas danced on a torn up knee last week – that is what you DO. Crazy? Definitely. But the only hero on the show is Buzz. Nicole? We get that you have a boyfriend and that there is no way you’re involved with Derek. But you’re accomplishing TWO things here; one, you’re protesting SO much that it makes me wonder things you don’t want me to wonder about, and; two…let people have their fantasies!! That’s part of the dance – it’s supposed to be romantic and you’re taking it too far in the other direction. It’s certainly working for Erin and Maks – just look at the comments EVERYWHERE. People buy the romantic crap. I love ya, and you’re my favorite, but cut it out. And slap your partner upside the head while you’re at it – not for his choreography, that’s always stellar in my book. But for not stopping you from protesting too much – he KNOWS what it takes to win this show and he’s letting you write the book. Stop it. That brings me to Erin – girl, I love you, and I sympathize with what you’ve gone through. You’re very brave AND you have not played on anyone’s sympathies intentionally. You are awesome. But if you are NOT dating Maks by the time this is all over, I’m going to feel I was manipulated. I will feel like you guys used your chemistry for votes (similar to what Shannon and Derek were castigated for in Season 6). Jake? Shut up. I hate when people say “you’re so disrespectful” – dude, people don’t automatically get respect, it has to be earned. As much as I enjoyed your dance last night, you ain’t there – your stint on the Bachelor also didn’t help. Louis and Niecy? Both of you were all over twitter with how emotional your dance was. You were so all over it that the dance itself was a letdown once it happened. Careful with the broadcasting. Manage expectations, don’t set them. See Derek, Maks and a couple other pros for help in this area. Anyway…

The MATH.
Here are the Judges Scores:

Dancer/Score
Evan/26
Nicole/23
Erin/23
Jake/21
Niecy/21
Pam/21
Chad/20
Aiden/20
Kate/15
Buzz/13
Total Judges Points Awarded = 203

As Courtney said, the 7 paddle is highly over rated. And Len, you seriously score Nicole only a point higher than what you gave Kate? That’s taking bunched panties to a new high (or is that low?). But Derek and Nicole knew they were taking a risk – at least they were honest about it, unlike some in the past. They took their spanking well. 🙂 Anyway – anyone looking at these scores knows that the fans of the different dancers better have voted like hell last night because we got lots of bunching. Nicole dropping to a tie for 2nd place doesn’t accomplish much, as you’ll see below. The only question is, has Aiden gotten enough distance from Kate and Buzz to be safe?

Dividing the individual scores by the total points awarded gives you the following percentages:

Dancer/Percentage of Total
Evan/12.81
Nicole/11.33
Erin/11.33
Jake/10.34
Niecy/10.34
Pam/10.34
Chad/9.85
Aiden/9.85
Kate/7.39
Buzz/6.40

Leaving Kate and Buzz out of it for a second, there are only three points between first and 8th place. Crazy. The question is, again, do Kate and Buzz have the fans to catapult them over someone in that bunch? Very hard to say. This season is rife with characters and people with their own, bizarre fanbases. I’m tempted to think that Kate has a bigger fanbase than Nicole – the question will be if the people who DON’T like Kate will vote for someone else. That’s what will count. You see all these people hating on Kate, but if they don’t vote for someone else, then she stays.

Buzz? Well, based on this, you can see that Buzz is now 3.45 points behind Aiden. Will it matter? Probably not. Remember, the percentage of total points awarded is added to the percentage of total votes cast to determine the dancers rank. Buzz needs to catch either Aiden or Kate to stay in the game. Do you think he can do it? I STILL think possibly so.

Here’s my current GUESS at how I think the voting might go, in tens of thousands (or thousands, who knows?):

Dancer/Votes (in thousands)
Evan/30 – Far and away the ringer of the season based on fanbase and ability, I don’t see this changing unless he breaks a leg or Anna choreographs a total crap freestyle. I have to say that I thought his Quickstep started off a tad sloppy.

Nicole/20 – Danced fantastically well, although a tad off from last week, and I think she’ll hold her own in voting thanks to passionate fanbases and Len being a jerk. Why yes, that is reverse psychology.

Erin/25 – I bumped Erin up because people will vote for chemistry every time. Throw in the sympathy votes for the crap she’s had to deal with and she may rival Evan for votes (for this week, anyway).

Jake/20 – I liked this dance. Also holding his own, and unless I severely overestimate the power of the Bachelor (and his very canny ability to be constantly photographed with Vienna and healing that “issue”) he should be fine for a while. It doesn’t hurt that he doesn’t suck as a dancer. The “aw shucks” thing has got to get old after a while, though. I’m not sure if his tantrum last night hurts or helps him.

Niecy/20 – Tough call here. I agreed with Carrie Ann’s comments, but I think she will be safe because she dances well and a lot of people liked and agree with her and Louis’ expressions of their feelings last night. Problem is, there are still a lot of…conservative…people in the world who won’t appreciate it at all.

Pam/20 – I have her up with the rest of the 20-group because I think her fans probably voted like maniacs last night due to her being in the bottom two last week. She also pulled off a decent Paso, but she was too soft, not crisp enough.

Chad/20 – Judges on crack – I didn’t think this Paso was good at all, but I like Chad as a character a good bit and it was a great improvement from last week. And I imagine he’s right up there with the rest in votes. Bengals fans indeed.

Aiden/15 – Poor Aiden. Not only do you suffer from being a plain old nice guy in a room full of crazy characters, you also were too stiff with bad feet. On the bright side, the singer crapped up the song so badly your footwork may have gone unnoticed. Still not sure that’s a good thing.

Kate/20 – Puh-lease. Yes I know there are crazy people voting for her. Slight improvement from last week but still awful.

Buzz/20 – I didn’t pick on Buzz above, and I feel bad to pick on him now. Because he’s 80! And an Astronaut!! :::sigh::: My enthusiasm for those two things is waning rapidly and the patriotic stuff is now officially too much.

Anyway, if you do the same math as I did above for the Judges points – add up the total and then divide into each individual score to get a percentage – then add the two percentages together, you get the total following points.

Evan/27.09
Erin/23.23
Nicole/20.85
Jake/19.87
Niecy/19.87
Pam/19.87
Chad/19.38
Aiden/17.00
Kate/16.91
Buzz/15.93

Note: These are my best guesses of the voting range of the dancers – no clue as to the accuracy. By my math, Buzz goes home with the lowest total. I have Aiden as the low vote getter, but not so low (by 5 points) that Buzz can overtake him. IF all others are correct, but I have slightly over estimated Aiden’s votes – if he gets a 12 instead of a 15 in votes – he goes home. If I have underestimated any of the other dancers votes except Aiden and Buzz, Buzz goes home. This is a hard game, but playing with the voting percentages 6 ways to Sunday, either Buzz or Aiden go home. I’m leaning toward Aiden. If someone other than Buzz, Aiden or Kate go home, it won’t be that shocking, simply because there is so little margin for error.

But, if something wacky happens and someone else goes home, I’m going to have to seriously re-evaluate my perception of fanbases. I have this strange feeling that only Evan and Erin are truly safe. For now.