All I know thus far is:
Shannen/Mark – First
Aiden/Edyta – Second
Chad/Cheryl – Tenth
Anyone got anything else?
Who’s dancing what? Well, barring any monkey business like what the producers were SO very fond of last season, that’s pretty easy to figure out. Last season was seriously bad, with the number of different dances they had in a given week, and the crappy way they assigned dances (Derek and Joanna did FOUR latin dances in a row, not counting the foxtrot relay). But this year seems like it might be harkening back to the good old days. Two different dances for the first two weeks and if you did latin (Cha Cha Cha) in Week 1, you get the ballroom standard in Week 2. This week’s dances are the Foxtrot and the Jive. Maybe it’s just me, but the Jive seems ridiculously hard for week 2 – but I guess they’re all hard.
Anyway, this should be the line up – in NO PARTICULAR order, since I only know that Chad and Cheryl are dancing 10th. I haven’t seen any other numbers. And most of these dances were verified by the dancers on Twitter.
Chad/Cheryl – Foxtrot – I have a feeling that Chad will do pretty well with this one and that we’ll see an improvement from last week.
Shannen/Mark – Jive – Again, I think we’ll see some improvement in Shannen, although she was pretty stiff in week 1. But this is going to depend entirely on Mark’s choreography – if he gets too complicated it will wear her out – it’s only week 2!
Erin/Maks – Foxtrot – I expect that Erin will fare better in ballroom than latin because of her height, and I expect tonight she will garner rave reviews.
Jake/Chelsie – Jive – Oh boy. He surprised me last week with not sucking. I expect he will have issues keeping up with Chelsie though.
Nicey/Louis – Foxtrot (to “Love you, I DO”)– I predict she won’t totally suck, but she will not get good scores. Len doesn’t like short people doing ballroom.
Evan/Anna – Jive – He’ll kill it and he doesn’t even have to.
Buzz/Ashly – Foxtrot – much better than his Cha Cha, but still not good. Not that it will matter. He’s *80*. Side note: I saw an interview with Buzz where he was complaining that Nicole was a “dancer” and that he wasn’t – and I’m sorry, Buzz, but I don’t think that’s Nicole’s TRUE advantage over you. I think her real advantage is that she’s 49 years YOUNGER than you are.
Nicole/Derek – Jive – saw some rehearsal footage and she was keeping up with Derek. Derek also says that this Jive kills him, it’s so fast. I’m hoping he didn’t go overboard.
Aiden/Edyta – Foxtrot (to Sinatra) – I think we’ll see a vast improvement here. We better or it’s the last we’ll see of Aiden.
Kate/Tony – Jive – can you say disaster? I knew you could.
Pam/Damian – Foxtrot – her Cha Cha was a hot mess, but highly entertaining. I have a feeling we might not say the same for her Foxtrot.
Entertainment Tonight – on Pamela Anderson. Everyone loves her. Maks, Erin, Derek – everyone. I’ll admit – she was a mess but she was fun. Also – Kate Gosselin. They have the Las Vegas odds as well.
As per usual, the local Los Angeles affiliate gets to interview the entire cast. I’ve posted a few here, but the rest you can find at ABC7.com.
Buzz and his kinda scary wife
Brooke Burke – still love her.
Evan and Anna – Sorry John, I’m really coming to love Anna. Hell, I’m just full of love this season.
Aiden and Edyta
The Insider – Who should be the first to go?? Of course they have a lot of Niecy Nash – but I agree with her prediction of problems in traditional ballroom for Pam. Also, dancers after dark and a tiny interview with Kate Gosselin.
Extra – about the drama, the ratings and what went on after the show. Bruno raving about Pam (although she can’t dance), still laying it on Kate and voting for Nicole. Evan and Mark (new bffs) at Ralph Lauren’s Polo thing. Bruno says Aiden will be the first to go – and I agree, as you know.
The whole gang on E! News – with Kim Johnson!!
Just about the whole gang on Entertainment Tonight from 3-19-10.
Access Hollywood with Kate, Jake and Chad
Access Hollywood from 3-11-10 with Buzz Aldrin (to name one)
Evan Lysacek on The View
The View Exit Interview – Evan Lysacek
I’m such a nerd. I will say that now and get it out of the way. And I don’t much care that I’m a nerd. I claim nerd-dom because I have this urge to do the math on the dancing.
First, let me say that this is going to likely be my favorite season of DWTS. Not because Derek is dancing with a Doll, but because I think this cast has given us the best, out of the gate dancing in several seasons. The only boring person on the show is Jake, and even he’s not that bad. There is no one on the show that I out and out dislike – even Kate! Every dancer kept me engaged for one reason or another. The bad news is for Aiden – dude, you are HOT, that’s for sure. But when I, a heterosexual female, am more mesmerized and impressed with your smokin’ hot partner and her dress – you got problems. Sorry – you seem like a very nice guy.
Based on what I saw last night, and my thoughts on Aiden, here’s how I think the math shakes out – keep in mind that the math for the scores is set. What I have to GUESS at, is how many votes each couple will get. To simplify the math, I kept those numbers small. You can multiply by a thousand, or ten thousand, if you want.
Here are the Judges Scores:
Total Judges Points Awarded = 209
Dividing the individual scores by the total points awarded gives you the following percentages:
Dancer/Percentage of Total
Based on this, you can see that Buzz is 5.26% out of first place. Remember, the percentage of total points awarded is added to the percentage of total votes cast to determine the dancers rank. So, Buzz only needs to make up that 0.48% in votes to catch Aiden. Do you think he can do it? I sure do. The question is – can Aiden catch any of the people ahead of him?
Anyway, let’s say they were eliminating someone tonight. Here’s how I think the voting might go, in tens of thousands (or thousands, who knows?):
Dancer/Votes (in thousands)
Nicole /15 – yes, she danced great, but she’s really not well known compared to some of the rest.
Evan /30 – this margin might even be higher. He could have fallen and still done this well.
Pam /10 – Very entertaining, but I don’t know it will get her votes. Was she drunk?
Erin /15 – She did well – not as well as Nicole and a tad leggy, but she’s got some sympathy working for her.
Jake /15 – He just came off the Bachelor, had Gia in the audience and he didn’t totally suck. Nuff said.
Chad /15 – He came off as charming, so he’ll get the football vote, but not sky high since he didn’t do as well as I expected.
Niecy /10 – Again, entertaining as hell, but I don’t think she’s as well known as some of the others.
Shannen /15 – Pretty stiff, but hell, she had me crying with her Dad sitting there and looking so proud. She’s around for a while.
Kate /15 – Very polarizing figure, but also way in the media – I’ve put her up with the other 15’s.
Aiden /10 – Gorgeous, but lost in a sea of characters and much better dancers.
Buzz /25 – Horrendous dancer…but he’s *80*!!! And an Astronaut!! And most of the voters (but not this writer) remember when he stepped foot on the freakin’ MOON!!! Consider him safe for a bit. But not as long as Cloris.
Now, if you do the same math as I did above for the Judges points – add up the total and then divide into each individual score to get a percentage – then add the two percentages together, you get the total following points. I’ve reshuffled so that the high scorer is at the top and the low scorer is at the bottom.
Chad and Shannen –tie/17.18
Note: Buzz had to get about 5.71% more votes than Nicole to make it to second place. Also note that next week’s dancing counts, so Aiden could save himself with a great Foxtrot, compared to the disaster that Pam’s and Niece’s are likely to be. For that matter – Kate and Jake doing a Jive? Yikes. While I think Shannen, Erin, Nicole, and Chad will likely get better with their next dances, the ones I mentioned have train wreck written all over them. Aiden has a chance if he can pull off a good Foxtrot. Can Buzz?
Hmmm…we don’t get to see much of Nicole, and nothing of Chad or Evan, in terms of dancing. And only a tiny bit of Erin. The more I do see, the less I believe in a clear front runner beside Evan – and that’s ONLY because of his Olympic Gold Medal.
Still missing two:
Chad and Cheryl are Number 1 – Phone: 800-868-3401 (per Cheryl’s twitter)
Shannen and Mark are Number 2 – Phone: 800-868-3402
Erin and Maks are Number 3 – Phone: 800-868-3403 (per Twitter chatter)
Jake and Chelsie are Number 4 – Phone: 800-868-3404
Niecy and Louis are Number 5 – Phone: 800-868-3405 (per Louis’s twitter)
Evan and Anna are Number 6 – 800-868-3406 (per Evan’s manager)
Buzz and Ashly are Number 7 – 800-868-3707
Nicole and Derek are Number 8 – Phone: 800-868-3408 (per Derek’s twitter)
Aiden and Edyta are Number 9 – Phone: 800-868-3409 (per Rebecca in comments – don’t know why I haven’t seen it on Twitter)
Kate and Tony are Number 10 – Phone: 800-868-3410 (per Tony’s twitter)
Pam and Damian are Number 11 – Phone: 800-868-3411
Hmmm…the way they are spaced out, it almost looks like it was planned that way.
Thank you guys so much for all the great feedback yesterday…I’m sure this is going to be a very interesting season with a lot of good discussions about who is going to win!
Now I give you the lower half of the list – those I don’t see faring quite as well this season. I really did struggle with several of these, because we have some definite “wild cards” this season that could go either way – again, it should be intersting to see who sinks and who swims
7.) Buzz Aldrin & Ashly Delgrosso – I think it’s a safe bet to say that Buzz has cornered the “senior citizen” vote this season – much like Tom DeLay did last season & Cloris did in season 7. This is a really good thing – I think a certain degree of respect comes when you’re the “old dog” in the competition, and people want to see you do well to prove that young age doesn’t always equate skill. And unlike the dubious fame of Tom DeLay or the loose cannon that was Cloris Leachman – Buzz is a living legend: a NASA astronaut, the 2nd man to set foot on the moon, and a highly decorated military officer. People LIKE him, and could very well keep him around for a little while even if he isn’t particularly good. Ashly may also garner quite a bit of support since she has been absent since season 3, and had been a favorite for the first 3 seasons of the show – and I’m sure Utah is behind her as well, as the Delgrosso family is basically a dancing dynasty there and is extremely well-respected. But there is one big concern, and it’s one that does seem to plague some of the “older” contestants: injury. We can see how it sidelined Tom last season (I think he actually would have stuck around for another week or so had he not withdrawn), and hindered the Woz in season 8. I hope that Buzz can dodge that hurdle and stay in the competition and be voted out, rather than having to drop out.
8.) Shannen Doherty & Mark Ballas – I’m sure I’m going to spark another debate with this one, but as I mentioned as comment on part 1, I think Shannen is going to have some demographical voting issues – voting issues stemming from her reputation as a bit of a “witch” John brought up a good point – Shannen is well-known for her TV roles as Brenda on 90210 and Prue on Charmed (and also to some degree her role in the movie Heathers); however, what some people may not remember is that she left both shows unceremoniously, due mainly to tensions with producers & co-stars. She also had brief, tumultuous marriages to both Ashley Hamilton (remember him? First guy voted off last season?) and Rick Salomon (who also co-starred in a sex tape with a certain blonde heiress, and ironically was also married to Pam Anderson for a few months back in ’07 – wow, I could totally play “Six Degrees of DWTS” this season!), and both ended in very messy, very public break-ups. There was also a DUI thrown in there somewhere, all which adds up to Shannen’s infamy as a bit of a bad girl. My point? Female viewers tend not to like pretty women of questionable virtue (sort of ties into my Pretty Girl Backlash Theory), and thus don’t vote for them. Granted, Shannen could be the greatest dancer on the show this season; but that doesn’t mean she’s going to get votes week after week. I also fear that Mark’s sometimes overbearing nature might clash with Shannen’s obviously “strong” personality – these two could be the second coming of Debi vs. Maks. I don’t see them going home the first week; but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were in the bottom 3, due to what I’ve mentioned above…it may take some time for the female viewing audience to really “warm up” to Shannen L
9.) Aiden Turner & Edyta Sliwinska – I may have had the hardest time placing this couple, next to my struggles with Jake & Chelsie. On one hand, Aiden is a hunky soap star that likely has quite a following from his role on All My Children; on the other hand, he isn’t as well-known and hasn’t been on the show as long as Susan Lucci or Cameron Mathison, and doesn’t have an additional “claim to fame” like General Hospital Playmate Kelly Monaco. Having Edyta as his partner could also be both a blessing and a curse – she’s a fan favorite (due to her tenure on all 10 seasons of the show), but also seems prone to having some boring choreography and a history of early eliminations. In the end, my pessimistic side wins out – I think Aiden’s name might be the least well-known of this season’s celebs at first glance (even I had to look him up, and I have been known to watch AMC on occasion!), and in the few practice sessions I’ve seen of he & Edyta, he looks like he could be a bit of an awkward mover. Aiden, please, prove me wrong – we need another cute guy to stick around to put doofy Jake in his place!
10.) Kate Gosselin & Tony Dovolani – I solemnly swear I am going to make an honest effort to try and give Kate a chance this season – however, I’m not sure America is going to be willing to do the same. Many have (understandably) questioned Kate’s choice to undertake such a big time commitment while being the primary custodian of 8 kids, and amid the media firestorm surrounding her divorce. And while Kate comes out as more of the “victim” in her situation with Jon – some cite her volatile temper in episodes of Jon & Kate Plus 8 prior to the divorce as a possible contributing factor for it. In other words – Kate may be dealing with the same “witch” syndrome as Shannen. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: female viewers do not like mean girls. Granted, she’s a mean girl with kids and a smarmy ex-husband – but a mean girl nonetheless. There are already rumors swirling about her “diva-like” behavior on-set (although I don’t know that I fully believe it, there may be some partial truth to it). I don’t know that Tony is going to be much of a help either – his support seems to run hot & cold, depending on who he is dancing with. But Kate is allegedly in pretty good shape, and does quite a bit of running & yoga, so she might not be half-bad…I think viewers may keep her around for a week or two just to see how she fares – but will ultimately tire of her.
11.) Pamela Anderson & Damian Whitehood – This is probably going to come as the biggest shocker for many of you who said that Pam may be the “big surprise” this season – but before you crucify me, hear me out I totally agree that Pam may be one of the better dancers this season – I really & truly would love to see her do well. But I think the deck could not be stacked against her more with the female viewing audience – she’s a textbook example of my “Pretty Girl Backlash Theory”: female viewers feel jealous and/or threatened by attractive women (especially overtly sexy ones with questionable reputations) and hence, do not vote. They find reasons to dislike their dancing in order to justify their animosity – it’s unfortunate, but true. Women are CATTY. And I think Pam unfortunately has enough scandal under her belt to add fuel to the fire – she’s appeared in Playboy multiple times (and I’m sure many viewers’ husbands have salivated over those pictures); she has not one, but TWO sex tapes (you can see what good it did for Kim Kardashian only having one!); a string of failed marriages to ahem, “questionable” men (Tommy Lee, Kid Rock, and Rick Salomon); and a wardrobe of rather suggestive ensembles. While I personally couldn’t care less about all of it – I doubt it will sit well with some of the more conservative viewing audience. Her charity work with PETA and the American Liver Foundation is somewhat redeeming, but I’m afraid it’s often overlooked in favor of her more scandalous activities. She also has a disadvantage in having a new pro – he has no fan base yet. Unless Pam proves to be the best dancer this season and starts knocking perfect 10s outta the park every week – I just don’t see her sticking around for long L
Alright, my predictions for the season are officially made…I’m excited to see how things pan out, and I really hope I’m proved wrong on some of these. I certainly was last season! Now let’s here some more good debates from you guys: who do you think will be the first to go?