With 10 seasons of DWTS behind us now, weâre at an interesting place â weâve got enough data and scores at our disposal to do some interesting statistical analyses of the show. Ever wonder if thereâs any interesting patterns in scoring, running order, dance selection, or even pro pairings? Well, wonder no more â because weâre about to run those numbers, and bring some surprising patterns to lightâŚI like to call it âDWTS Stat Classâ. đÂ
Hereâs an interesting fact: out of the 83 regular, weekly eliminations (not counting elims that determined placements in the finals or withdrawals from the competition â the math just gets too tricky with those) in the 10 seasons of DWTS, only 39 of them were couples that were that weekâs lowest scorer â roughly 47%. So what does that mean? Well, that the other 53% of the time, some factor other than a low score resulted in a couple getting sent home. While the obvious answer to some might be âWell those couples just werenât as popular!â, thereâs no scientific, finite way to measure popularity on the show, and we unfortunately arenât privy to the vote counts for each couple. However, there are other factors we can take an objective measurement of â running order, dance choice, even the pro youâre paired withâŚand thatâs where some interesting stats pop up.Â
DISCLAIMER: I am not a professional statistician, nor am I a Vegas sports bookie â I am well aware that these calculations are not perfect, nor are they particularly sophisticated. There are simply too many variables to account for in order make these stats âairtightâ, and quite frankly, I donât have the time or the desire to try. These are just general observations, to be taken with a grain of salt â so if anyone starts complaining in the comments about this not being âscientificâ enough, go run the numbers yourselfâŚIâll even publish your findings on this site. But you donât get to bitch & moan if you canât do better yourself. Mmmmmkay? đ
 Todayâs topic? Running order. The question: is it possible that the order in which the couples dance on performance night can affect their odds of elimination that week? The answer, based upon my findings: sure seems like it.
 Some of you have heard me talk about the âmoney spotâ (dancing last) or the âcrap spotâ (dancing first) in my power rankings â my general observation is that those who dance last are less likely to get sent home, as their performances are fresh in the viewersâ minds when theyâre voting after the show; those who dance first are more at risk of getting sent home, as an entire showâs length has elapsed since their performance and theyâre often forgotten by the voters.Â
 Well, after taking a closer look at the running order of eliminated couples, it seems as though the numbers are consistent with my first hypothesis â only 3 out of the 83 eliminations were couples that had danced last on performance night (or one of 2 performance nights, if there was no elimination previous week, so the couples would have danced twice before a particular elimination); it may also be worth noting that two of the couples, Joey McIntyre & Ashly Costa and Ty Murray & Chelsie Hightower, were also the low scorers that week (and both were eliminated in the semifinals, when scores are of greater importance) â so their departure may have had more to do with a low score than the order in which they danced. Based on that, it seems to me that, unless a couple does exceptionally poorly any given week, if they dance last â the chances of them getting eliminated that week are slim to none, unless itâs one of the final weeks of the competition. Guess if youâre a couple having an off-week, you should hope and pray that you get to go last!
 As for my âcrapâ spot hypothesis about going first â I was wrong. Only 11 out of 83 eliminations were from couples that had danced first on performance night (or, again, on at least one of 2 performance nights, if there was no elimination the previous week and the couples danced twice before an elimination). Thatâs only about 13.25%. However, there was an overwhelming percentage of eliminations for couples who danced 2nd in the running order during the week they were eliminated â about 30%, by far the greatest of all the running order positions. And this was regardless of how many couples total danced that week! Of those, only 9 were actually the lowest scorer during the week they were eliminated â so maybe the other 16 were part of the âcurse of #2â. I guess it makes sense to me â if you go first, youâre still at least the first one viewers have seen, so theyâll likely remember you because of it; but if you go second (or anywhere in the middle of the pack), youâre more likely to get lost in the shuffle. A good example of the new âcrap spotâ in action â Shannen Doherty. Poor girl got a pretty lousy draw in the running order lottery â she danced 2nd in week one, and 1st in week twoâŚoverall, a pretty hard combo to overcome, which may have had something to do with her getting sent home despite not being the weekâs lowest scorer.Â
 So what about the âmiddle of the packâ positions, you ask? Well things get a bit tricky there, since there hasnât been the same number of competitors each season, so Iâm not going to go into the details of positions 3, 4, 5âŚetc. However, two interesting points: one, no one who has danced in a position greater than 10th in the running order in a given week has gotten sent home; two, over 70% of the eliminations have been couples who danced in the first half of the show the night they performed. What can we extrapolate from that? Well, it seems like the closer your performance is to the end of the show, the better â if you canât go last, at least you can hope that you perform in the second half of the show, because it seems a helluva lot safer than dancing in the first half!
 Hereâs another interesting tidbit, which I already sort of touched on above: the closer you get to the end of the season, the less running order seems to matter. At about the halfway point in each season, the patterns Iâve mentioned above seem to show up less frequently â and couples tend to be sent home based more on low score than anything else. Why? Probably because itâs easier to get lost in the middle of a big group of couples (such as the first half of the season) than it is to get forgotten in a much smaller group (second half of the season). The fact that people have already established their favorites and know who the strong couples are by the middle of the season may also play a role â the second half of the season really seems to separate the men from the boys (and the women from the girls!), so to speak, and actually giving good performances with high scores tends to matter more.
 So what can we conclude about running order, class? đ
Well, we canât really conclude anything â lord knows this show can be completely unpredictable at times, and no pattern we find is guaranteed to hold true. HOWEVER, we can say it seems as though youâre safe if you dance last, pretty safe if you dance in the second half of the show, slightly at a disadvantage if you dance in the first half, and youâre almost totally screwed if you dance 2nd. I guess 2nd place really is first place loser đ But if itâs later in the season â well, then you just better dance like thereâs no tomorrow!